Emerging long-term trends and interdecadal cycles in Antarctic polynyas.

Polynyas, areas of open water embedded within sea ice, are a key component of ocean-atmosphere interactions that act as hotspots of sea-ice production, bottom-water formation, and primary productivity. The specific drivers of polynya dynamics remain, however, elusive and coupled climate models struggle to replicate Antarctic polynya activity. Here, we leverage a 44-y time series of Antarctic sea ice to elucidate long-term trends. We identify Antarctic-wide linear increases and a hitherto undescribed cyclical pattern of polynya activity across the Ross Sea region that potentially arises from interactions between the Amundsen Sea Low and Southern Annular Mode. While their specific drivers remain unknown, identifying these emerging patterns augments our capacity to understand the processes that influence sea ice. As we enter a potentially new age of Antarctic sea ice, this advance in understanding will, in turn, lead to more accurate predictions of environmental change, and its implications for Antarctic ecosystems.

Macroalgal microbiome biogeography is shaped by environmental drivers rather than geographical distance.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Contrasting patterns of host and microbiome biogeography can provide insight into the drivers of microbial community assembly. Distance-decay relationships are a classic biogeographical pattern shaped by interactions between selective and non-selective processes. Joint biogeography of microbiomes and their hosts is of increasing interest owing to the potential for microbiome-facilitated adaptation. METHODS: In this study, we examine the coupled biogeography of the model macroalga Durvillaea and its microbiome using a combination of genotyping by sequencing (host) and 16S rRNA amplicon sequencing (microbiome). Alongside these approaches, we use environmental data to characterize the relationship between the microbiome, the host, and the environment. KEY RESULTS: We show that although the host and microbiome exhibit shared biogeographical structure, these arise from different processes, with host biogeography showing classic signs of geographical distance decay, but with the microbiome showing environmental distance decay. Examination of microbial subcommunities, defined by abundance, revealed that the abundance of microbes is linked to environmental selection. As microbes become less common, the dominant ecological processes shift away from selective processes and towards neutral processes. Contrary to expectations, we found that ecological drift does not promote structuring of the microbiome. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that although host macroalgae exhibit a relatively 'typical' biogeographical pattern of declining similarity with increasing geographical distance, the microbiome is more variable and is shaped primarily by environmental conditions. Our findings suggest that the Baas Becking hypothesis of 'everything is everywhere, the environment selects' might be a useful hypothesis to understand the biogeography of macroalgal microbiomes. As environmental conditions change in response to anthropogenic influences, the processes structuring the microbiome of macroalgae might shift, whereas those governing the host biogeography are less likely to change. As a result, increasingly decoupled host-microbe biogeography might be observed in response to such human influences.

Tracheal branching in ants is area-decreasing, violating a central assumption of network transport models.

The structure of tubular transport networks is thought to underlie much of biological regularity, from individuals to ecosystems. A core assumption of transport network models is either area-preserving or area-increasing branching, such that the summed cross-sectional area of all child branches is equal to or greater than the cross-sectional area of their respective parent branch. For insects, the most diverse group of animals, the assumption of area-preserving branching of tracheae is, however, based on measurements of a single individual and an assumption of gas exchange by diffusion. Here we show that ants exhibit neither area-preserving nor area-increasing branching in their abdominal tracheal systems. We find for 20 species of ants that the sum of child tracheal cross-sectional areas is typically less than that of the parent branch (area-decreasing). The radius, rather than the area, of the parent branch is conserved across the sum of child branches. Interpretation of the tracheal system as one optimized for the release of carbon dioxide, while readily catering to oxygen demand, explains the branching pattern. Our results, together with widespread demonstration that gas exchange in insects includes, and is often dominated by, convection, indicate that for generality, network transport models must include consideration of systems with different architectures.

Basal resistance enhances warming tolerance of alien over indigenous species across latitude.

Soil systems are being increasingly exposed to the interactive effects of biological invasions and climate change, with rising temperatures expected to benefit alien over indigenous species. We assessed this expectation for an important soil-dwelling group, the springtails, by determining whether alien species show broader thermal tolerance limits and greater tolerance to climate warming than their indigenous counterparts. We found that, from the tropics to the sub-Antarctic, alien species have the broadest thermal tolerances and greatest tolerance to environmental warming. Both groups of species show little phenotypic plasticity or potential for evolutionary change in tolerance to high temperature. These trait differences between alien and indigenous species suggest that biological invasions will exacerbate the impacts of climate change on soil systems, with profound implications for terrestrial ecosystem functioning.

Sub-critical limits are viable alternatives to critical thermal limits.

Thermal traits are frequently used to explain variation in species distributions, abundance, and sensitivity to climate change. Due to their utility and ease of measurement, critical thermal limits in particular have proliferated across the ecophysiological literature. Critical limit assays can, however, have deleterious or even lethal effects on individuals and there is growing recognition that intermediate metrics of performance can provide a further, nuanced understanding of how species interact with their environments. Meanwhile, the scarcity of data describing sub-critical or voluntary limits, which have been proposed as alternatives to critical limits and can be collected under less extreme conditions, reduces their value in comparative analyses and broad-scale syntheses. To overcome these limitations and determine if sub-critical limits are viable proxies for upper and lower critical thermal limits we measured and compared the critical and sub-critical thermal limits of 2023 ants representing 51 species. Sub-critical limits in isolation were a satisfactory linear predictor for both individual and species critical limits and when species identity was also considered there were substantial gains in variance explained. These gains indicate that a species-specific conversion factor can further improve estimates of critical traits using sub-critical proxies. Sub-critical limits can, therefore, be integrated into broader syntheses of critical limits and confidently used to calculate common ecological metrics, such as warming tolerance, so long as uncertainty in estimates is explicitly acknowledged. Although lower thermal traits exhibited more variation than their upper counterparts, the stronger phylogenetic signal of lower thermal traits indicates that appropriate conversions for lower thermal traits can be inferred from congenerics or other closely related taxa.

Realised rather than fundamental thermal niches predict site occupancy: Implications for climate change forecasting.

Thermal performance traits are regularly used to make forecasts of the responses of ectotherms to anthropogenic environmental change, but such forecasts do not always differentiate between fundamental and realised thermal niches. Here we determine the relative extents to which variation in the fundamental and realised thermal niches accounts for current variation in species abundance and occupancy and assess the effects of niche-choice on future-climate response estimations. We investigated microclimate and macroclimate temperatures alongside abundance, occupancy, critical thermal limits and foraging activity of 52 ant species (accounting for >95% individuals collected) from a regional assemblage from across the Western Cape Province, South Africa, between 2003 and 2014. Capability of a species to occupy sites experiencing the most extreme temperatures, coupled with breadth of realised niche, explained most deviance in occupancy (up to 75%), while foraging temperature range and body mass explained up to 50.5% of observed variation in mean species abundance. When realised niches are used to forecast responses to climate change, large positive and negative effects among species are predicted under future conditions, in contrast to the forecasts of minimal impacts on all species that are indicated by fundamental niche predictions.

A widespread thermodynamic effect, but maintenance of biological rates through space across life's major domains.

For over a century, the hypothesis of temperature compensation, the maintenance of similar biological rates in species from different thermal environments, has remained controversial. An alternative idea, that fitness is greater at higher temperatures (the thermodynamic effect), has gained increasing traction. This alternative hypothesis is also being used to understand large-scale biodiversity responses to environmental change. Yet evidence in favour of each of these contrasting hypotheses continues to emerge. In consequence, the fundamental nature of organismal thermal responses and its implications remain unresolved. Here, we investigate these ideas explicitly using a global dataset of 619 observations of four categories of organismal performance, spanning 14 phyla and 403 species. In agreement with both hypotheses, we show a positive relationship between the temperature of maximal performance rate (Topt) and environmental temperature (Tenv) for developmental rate and locomotion speed, but not growth or photosynthesis rate. Next, we demonstrate that relationships between Tenv and the maximal performance rate (Umax) are rarely significant and positive, as expected if a thermodynamic effect predominates. By contrast, a positive relationship between Topt and Umax is always present, but markedly weaker than theoretically predicted. These outcomes demonstrate that while some form of thermodynamic effect exists, ample scope is present for biochemical and physiological adaptation to thermal environments in the form of temperature compensation.

Kelp holdfast microclimates buffer invertebrate inhabitants from extreme temperatures.

Climate change is altering environmental conditions, with microclimates providing small-scale refuges within otherwise challenging environments. Durvillaea (southern bull kelp; rimurapa) is a genus of large intertidal fucoid algae, and some species harbour diverse invertebrate communities in their holdfasts. We hypothesised that animal-excavated Durvillaea holdfasts provide a thermal refuge for epibiont species, and tested this hypothesis using the exemplar species D. poha. Using a southern Aotearoa New Zealand population as a case-study, we found extreme temperatures outside the holdfast were 4.4 °C higher in summer and 6.9 °C lower in winter than inside the holdfast. A microclimate model of the holdfasts was built and used to forecast microclimates under 2100 conditions. Temperatures are predicted to increase by 2-3 °C, which may exceed the tolerances of D. poha. However, if D. poha or a similar congeneric persists, temperatures inside holdfasts will remain less extreme than the external environment. The thermal tolerances of two Durvillaea-associated invertebrates, the trochid gastropod Cantharidus antipodum and the amphipod Parawaldeckia kidderi, were also assessed; C. antipodum, but not P. kidderi, displayed metabolic depression at temperatures above and below those inside holdfasts, suggesting that they would be vulnerable outside the holdfast and with future warming. Microclimates, such as those within D. poha holdfasts or holdfasts of similar species, will therefore be important refuges for the survival of species both at the northern (retreating edge) and southern (expanding edge) limits of their distributions.

Long-distance movement dynamics shape host microbiome richness and turnover.

Host-associated microbial communities are shaped by host migratory movements. These movements can have contrasting impacts on microbiota, and understanding such patterns can provide insight into the ecological processes that contribute to community diversity. Furthermore, long-distance movements to new environments are anticipated to occur with increasing frequency due to host distribution shifts resulting from climate change. Understanding how hosts transport their microbiota with them could be of importance when examining biological invasions. Although microbial community shifts are well-documented, the underlying mechanisms that lead to the restructuring of these communities remain relatively unexplored. Using literature and ecological simulations, we develop a framework to elucidate the major factors that lead to community change. We group host movements into two types-regular (repeated/cyclical migratory movements, as found in many birds and mammals) and irregular (stochastic/infrequent movements that do not occur on a cyclical basis, as found in many insects and plants). Ecological simulations and prior research suggest that movement type and frequency, alongside environmental exposure (e.g. internal/external microbiota) are key considerations for understanding movement-associated community changes. From our framework, we derive a series of testable hypotheses, and suggest means to test them, to facilitate future research into host movement and microbial community dynamics.

Streamlining large-scale oceanic biomonitoring using passive eDNA samplers integrated into vessel's continuous pump underway seawater systems.

Passive samplers are enabling the scaling of environmental DNA (eDNA) biomonitoring in our oceans, by circumventing the time-consuming process of water filtration. Designing a novel passive sampler that does not require extensive sample handling time and can be connected to ocean-going vessels without impeding normal underway activities has potential to rapidly upscale global biomonitoring efforts onboard the world's oceanic fleet. Here, we demonstrate the utility of an artificial sponge sampler connected to the continuous pump underway seawater system as a means to enable oceanic biomonitoring. We compared the performance of this passive sampling protocol with standard water filtration at six locations during a research voyage from New Zealand to Antarctica in early 2023. Eukaryote metabarcoding of the mitochondrial COI gene revealed no significant difference in phylogenetic α-diversity between sampling methods and both methods delineated a progressive reduction in number of Zero-Radius Operational Taxonomic Units (ZOTUs) with increased latitudes. While both sampling methods revealed comparable trends in geographical community compositions, distinct clusters were identified for passive samplers and water filtration at each location. Additionally, greater variability between replicates was observed for passive samplers, resulting in an increased estimated level of replication needed to recover 90 % of the biodiversity. Furthermore, traditional water filtration failed to detect three phyla observed by passive samplers and extrapolation analysis estimated passive samplers recover a larger number of ZOTUs compared to water filtration for all six locations. Our results demonstrate the potential of this passive eDNA sampler protocol and highlight areas where this emerging technology could be improved, thereby enabling large-scale offshore marine eDNA biomonitoring by leveraging the world's oceanic fleet without interfering with onboard activities.

Spatio-temporal development of the urban heat island in a socioeconomically diverse tropical city.

Urban heat islands, where temperatures are elevated relative to non-urban surrounds, are near-ubiquitous in cities globally. Yet, the magnitude and form of urban heat islands in the tropics, where heat has a large morbidity and mortality burden, is not well understood, especially for those of urban informal settlements. We used 29 years of Landsat satellite-derived surface temperature, corroborated by in situ temperature measurements, to provide a detailed spatial and temporal assessment of urban heat islands in Makassar, Indonesia, a city that is representative of rapidly growing urban settlements across the tropics. Our analysis identified surface urban heat islands of up to 9.2 °C in long-urbanised parts of the city and 6.3 °C in informal settlements, the seasonal patterns of which were driven by change in non-urban areas rather than in urban areas themselves. In recently urbanised areas, the majority of urban heat island increase occurred before land became 50% urbanised, whereas the established heat island in long-urbanised areas remained stable in response to urban expansion. Green and blue space protected some informal settlements from the worst urban heat islands observed across the city and maintenance of such space will be essential to mitigate the growing heat burden from urban expansion and anthropogenic climate change. Settlements further than 4 km from the coast and with Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) less than 0.2 had higher surface temperatures, with modelled effects of more than 5 °C. Surface temperature measurements were representative of in situ heat exposure, measured in a subset of 12 informal settlements, where mean indoor temperature had the strongest relationship with surface temperature (R2 = 0.413, P = 0.001). We advocate for green space to be prioritised in urban planning, redevelopment and informal settlement upgrading programs, with consideration of the unique environmental and socioeconomic context of tropical cities.

Chronic heat stress in tropical urban informal settlements.

The health and economic impacts of extreme heat on humans are especially pronounced in populations without the means to adapt. We deployed a sensor network across 12 informal settlements in Makassar, Indonesia to measure the thermal environment that people experience inside and outside their homes. We calculated two metrics to assess the magnitude and frequency of heat stress conditions, wet bulb temperature and wet bulb globe temperature, and compared our in situ data to that collected by weather stations. We found that informal settlement residents experience chronic heat stress conditions, which are underestimated by weather stations. Wet bulb temperatures approached the uppermost limits of human survivability, and wet bulb globe temperatures regularly exceeded recommended physical activity thresholds, both in houses and outdoors. Under a warming climate, a growing number of people living informally will face potentially severe impacts from heat stress that have likely been previously overlooked or underestimated.

Study design, rationale and methods of the Revitalising Informal Settlements and their Environments (RISE) study: a cluster randomised controlled trial to evaluate environmental and human health impacts of a water-sensitive intervention in informal settlements in Indonesia and Fiji.

INTRODUCTION: Increasing urban populations have led to the growth of informal settlements, with contaminated environments linked to poor human health through a range of interlinked pathways. Here, we describe the design and methods for the Revitalising Informal Settlements and their Environments (RISE) study, a transdisciplinary randomised trial evaluating impacts of an intervention to upgrade urban informal settlements in two Asia-Pacific countries. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: RISE is a cluster randomised controlled trial among 12 settlements in Makassar, Indonesia, and 12 in Suva, Fiji. Six settlements in each country have been randomised to receive the intervention at the outset; the remainder will serve as controls and be offered intervention delivery after trial completion. The intervention involves a water-sensitive approach, delivering site-specific, modular, decentralised infrastructure primarily aimed at improving health by decreasing exposure to environmental faecal contamination. Consenting households within each informal settlement site have been enrolled, with longitudinal assessment to involve health and well-being surveys, and human and environmental sampling. Primary outcomes will be evaluated in children under 5 years of age and include prevalence and diversity of gastrointestinal pathogens, abundance and diversity of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) genes in gastrointestinal microorganisms and markers of gastrointestinal inflammation. Diverse secondary outcomes include changes in microbial contamination; abundance and diversity of pathogens and AMR genes in environmental samples; impacts on ecological biodiversity and microclimates; mosquito vector abundance; anthropometric assessments, nutrition markers and systemic inflammation in children; caregiver-reported and self-reported health symptoms and healthcare utilisation; and measures of individual and community psychological, emotional and economic well-being. The study aims to provide proof-of-concept evidence to inform policies on upgrading of informal settlements to improve environments and human health and well-being. ETHICS: Study protocols have been approved by ethics boards at Monash University, Fiji National University and Hasanuddin University. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ACTRN12618000633280; Pre-results.

A planetary health model for reducing exposure to faecal contamination in urban informal settlements: Baseline findings from Makassar, Indonesia.

BACKGROUND: The intense interactions between people, animals and environmental systems in urban informal settlements compromise human and environmental health. Inadequate water and sanitation services, compounded by exposure to flooding and climate change risks, expose inhabitants to environmental contamination causing poor health and wellbeing and degrading ecosystems. However, the exact nature and full scope of risks and exposure pathways between human health and the environment in informal settlements are uncertain. Existing models are limited to microbiological linkages related to faecal-oral exposures at the individual level, and do not account for a broader range of human-environmental variables and interactions that affect population health and wellbeing. METHODS: We undertook a 12-month health and environmental assessment in 12 flood-prone informal settlements in Makassar, Indonesia. We obtained caregiver-reported health data, anthropometric measurements, stool and blood samples from children < 5 years, and health and wellbeing data for children 5-14 years and adult respondents. We collected environmental data including temperature, mosquito and rat species abundance, and water and sediment samples. Demographic, built environment and household asset data were also collected. We combined our data with existing literature to generate a novel planetary health model of health and environment in informal settlements. RESULTS: Across the 12 settlements, 593 households and 2764 participants were enrolled. Two-thirds (64·1%) of all houses (26·3-82·7% per settlement) had formal land tenure documentation. Cough, fever and diarrhoea in the week prior to the survey were reported among an average of 34.3%, 26.9% and 9.7% of children aged < 5 years, respectively; although proportions varied over time, prevalence among these youngest children was consistently higher than among children 5-14 years or adult respondents. Among children < 5 years, 44·3% experienced stunting, 41·1% underweight, 12.4% wasting, and 26.5% were anaemic. There was self- or carer-reported poor mental health among 16.6% of children aged 5-14 years and 13.9% of adult respondents. Rates of potential risky exposures from swimming in waterways, eating uncooked produce, and eating soil or dirt were high, as were exposures to flooding and livestock. Just over one third of households (35.3%) had access to municipal water, and contamination of well water with E. coli and nitrogen species was common. Most (79·5%) houses had an in-house toilet, but no houses were connected to a piped sewer network or safe, properly constructed septic tank. Median monthly settlement outdoor temperatures ranged from 26·2 °C to 29.3 °C, and were on average, 1·1 °C warmer inside houses than outside. Mosquito density varied over time, with Culex quinquefasciatus accounting for 94·7% of species. Framed by a planetary health lens, our model includes four thematic domains: (1) the physical/built environment; (2) the ecological environment; (3) human health; and (4) socio-economic wellbeing, and is structured at individual, household, settlement, and city/beyond spatial scales. CONCLUSIONS: Our planetary health model includes key risk factors and faecal-oral exposure pathways but extends beyond conventional microbiological faecal-oral enteropathogen exposure pathways to comprehensively account for a wider range of variables affecting health in urban informal settlements. It includes broader ecological interconnections and planetary health-related variables at the household, settlement and city levels. It proposes a composite framework of markers to assess water and sanitation challenges and flood risks in urban informal settlements for optimal design and monitoring of interventions.

High resolution temperature data for ecological research and management on the Southern Ocean Islands.

Southern Ocean Islands are globally significant conservation areas. Predicting how their terrestrial ecosystems will respond to current and forecast climate change is essential for their management and requires high-quality temperature data at fine spatial resolutions. Existing datasets are inadequate for this purpose. Remote-sensed land surface temperature (LST) observations, such as those collected by satellite-mounted spectroradiometers, can provide high-resolution, spatially-continuous data for isolated locations. These methods require a clear sightline to measure surface conditions, however, which can leave large data-gaps in temperature time series. Using a spatio-temporal gap-filling method applied to high-resolution (~1 km) LST observations for 20 Southern Ocean Islands, we compiled a complete monthly temperature dataset for a 15-year period (2001-2015). We validated results using in situ measurements of microclimate temperature. Gap-filled temperature observations described the thermal heterogeneity of the region better than existing climatology datasets, particularly for islands with steep elevational gradients and strong prevailing winds. This dataset will be especially useful for terrestrial ecologists, conservation biologists, and for developing island-specific management and mitigation strategies for environmental change.

Microclimate-based macrophysiology: implications for insects in a warming world.

Understanding the influence of microclimates is an increasing focus of investigations of global change risks to insects. Here we review recent advances in this area in the context of macrophysiological forecasts of the impacts of warming. Some studies have suggested that risk estimates may be inaccurate owing to microclimate variation or behavioural responses. Using modelled microclimatic data we illustrate this problem, demonstrating that soil microclimates on the Australian continent will warm in concert with global climate change such that the upper thermal tolerance limits of many insects will be exceeded across much of the continent. Deeper microclimates will be cooler and more hospitable, emphasising the importance of behavioural adaptation and movement amongst microclimates as a response to environmental warming.

Growth and reproduction of laboratory-reared neanurid Collembola using a novel slime mould diet.

Although significant progress has been made using insect taxa as model organisms, non-tracheated terrestrial arthropods, such as Collembola, are underrepresented as model species. This underrepresentation reflects the difficulty in maintaining populations of specialist Collembola species in the laboratory. Until now, no species from the family Neanuridae have been successfully reared. Here we use controlled growth experiments to provide explicit evidence that the species Neanura muscorum can be raised under laboratory conditions when its diet is supplemented with slime mould. Significant gains in growth were observed in Collembola given slime mould rather than a standard diet of algae-covered bark. These benefits are further highlighted by the reproductive success of the experimental group and persistence of laboratory breeding stocks of this species and others in the family. The necessity for slime mould in the diet is attributed to the 'suctorial' mouthpart morphology characteristic of the Neanuridae. Maintaining laboratory populations of neanurid Collembola species will facilitate their use as model organisms, paving the way for studies that will broaden the current understanding of the environmental physiology of arthropods.