Evaluation of polygenic prediction methodology within a reference-standardized framework.

The predictive utility of polygenic scores is increasing, and many polygenic scoring methods are available, but it is unclear which method performs best. This study evaluates the predictive utility of polygenic scoring methods within a reference-standardized framework, which uses a common set of variants and reference-based estimates of linkage disequilibrium and allele frequencies to construct scores. Eight polygenic score methods were tested: p-value thresholding and clumping (pT+clump), SBLUP, lassosum, LDpred1, LDpred2, PRScs, DBSLMM and SBayesR, evaluating their performance to predict outcomes in UK Biobank and the Twins Early Development Study (TEDS). Strategies to identify optimal p-value thresholds and shrinkage parameters were compared, including 10-fold cross validation, pseudovalidation and infinitesimal models (with no validation sample), and multi-polygenic score elastic net models. LDpred2, lassosum and PRScs performed strongly using 10-fold cross-validation to identify the most predictive p-value threshold or shrinkage parameter, giving a relative improvement of 16-18% over pT+clump in the correlation between observed and predicted outcome values. Using pseudovalidation, the best methods were PRScs, DBSLMM and SBayesR. PRScs pseudovalidation was only 3% worse than the best polygenic score identified by 10-fold cross validation. Elastic net models containing polygenic scores based on a range of parameters consistently improved prediction over any single polygenic score. Within a reference-standardized framework, the best polygenic prediction was achieved using LDpred2, lassosum and PRScs, modeling multiple polygenic scores derived using multiple parameters. This study will help researchers performing polygenic score studies to select the most powerful and predictive analysis methods.

Imputed gene expression risk scores: a functionally informed component of polygenic risk.

Integration of functional genomic annotations when estimating polygenic risk scores (PRS) can provide insight into aetiology and improve risk prediction. This study explores the predictive utility of gene expression risk scores (GeRS), calculated using imputed gene expression and transcriptome-wide association study (TWAS) results. The predictive utility of GeRS was evaluated using 12 neuropsychiatric and anthropometric outcomes measured in two target samples: UK Biobank and the Twins Early Development Study. GeRS were calculated based on imputed gene expression levels and TWAS results, using 53 gene expression-genotype panels, termed single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP)-weight sets, capturing expression across a range of tissues. We compare the predictive utility of elastic net models containing GeRS within and across SNP-weight sets, and models containing both GeRS and PRS. We estimate the proportion of SNP-based heritability attributable to cis-regulated gene expression. GeRS significantly predicted a range of outcomes, with elastic net models combining GeRS across SNP-weight sets improving prediction. GeRS were less predictive than PRS, but models combining GeRS and PRS improved prediction for several outcomes, with relative improvements ranging from 0.3% for height (P = 0.023) to 4% for rheumatoid arthritis (P = 5.9 × 10-8). The proportion of SNP-based heritability attributable to cis-regulated expression was modest for most outcomes, even when restricting GeRS to colocalized genes. GeRS represent a component of PRS and could be useful for functional stratification of genetic risk. Only in specific circumstances can GeRS substantially improve prediction over PRS alone. Future research considering functional genomic annotations when estimating genetic risk is warranted.

General dimensions of human brain morphometry inferred from genome-wide association data.

Understanding the neurodegenerative mechanisms underlying cognitive decline in the general population may facilitate early detection of adverse health outcomes in late life. This study investigates genetic links between brain morphometry, ageing and cognitive ability. We develop Genomic Principal Components Analysis (Genomic PCA) to model general dimensions of brain-wide morphometry at the level of their underlying genetic architecture. Genomic PCA is applied to genome-wide association data for 83 brain-wide volumes (36,778 UK Biobank participants) and we extract genomic principal components (PCs) to capture global dimensions of genetic covariance across brain regions (unlike ancestral PCs that index genetic similarity between participants). Using linkage disequilibrium score regression, we estimate genetic overlap between those general brain dimensions and cognitive ageing. The first genetic PCs underlying the morphometric organisation of 83 brain-wide regions accounted for substantial genetic variance (R2  = 40%) with the pattern of component loadings corresponding closely to those obtained from phenotypic analyses. Genetically more central regions to overall brain structure - specifically frontal and parietal volumes thought to be part of the central executive network - tended to be somewhat more susceptible towards age (r = -0.27). We demonstrate the moderate genetic overlap between the first PC underlying each of several structural brain networks and general cognitive ability (rg  = 0.17-0.21), which was not specific to a particular subset of the canonical networks examined. We provide a multivariate framework integrating covariance across multiple brain regions and the genome, revealing moderate shared genetic etiology between brain-wide morphometry and cognitive ageing.

Associations and limited shared genetic aetiology between bipolar disorder and cardiometabolic traits in the UK Biobank.

BACKGROUND: People with bipolar disorder (BPD) are more likely to die prematurely, which is partly attributed to comorbid cardiometabolic traits. Previous studies report cardiometabolic abnormalities in BPD, but their shared aetiology remains poorly understood. This study examined the phenotypic associations and shared genetic aetiology between BPD and various cardiometabolic traits. METHODS: In a subset of the UK Biobank sample (N = 61 508) we investigated phenotypic associations between BPD (ncases = 4186) and cardiometabolic traits, represented by biomarkers, anthropometric traits and cardiometabolic diseases. To determine shared genetic aetiology in European ancestry, polygenic risk scores (PRS) and genetic correlations were calculated between BPD and cardiometabolic traits. RESULTS: Several traits were significantly associated with increased risk for BPD, namely low total cholesterol, low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, high triglycerides, high glycated haemoglobin, low systolic blood pressure, high body mass index, high waist-to-hip ratio; and stroke, coronary artery disease and type 2 diabetes diagnosis. BPD was associated with higher polygenic risk for triglycerides, waist-to-hip ratio, coronary artery disease and type 2 diabetes. Shared genetic aetiology persisted for coronary artery disease, when correcting PRS associations for cardiometabolic base phenotypes. Associations were not replicated using genetic correlations. CONCLUSIONS: This large study identified increased phenotypic cardiometabolic abnormalities in BPD participants. It is found that the comorbidity of coronary artery disease may be based on shared genetic aetiology. These results motivate hypothesis-driven research to consider individual cardiometabolic traits rather than a composite metabolic syndrome when attempting to disentangle driving mechanisms of cardiometabolic abnormalities in BPD.

Lessons from complex trait genetics may help us overcome the neuroimaging replication crisis.

The research fields of Complex Trait (or Statistical) Genetics and Neuroimaging face similar challenges in identifying reliable biological correlates of common traits and diseases. This Viewpoint focuses on five major lessons that allowed population-level genetics research to overcome many of its issues of replicability and may be directly applicable to inter-individual neuroimaging research. First, the failure of candidate gene studies inspires abandoning overly simplistic studies mapping individual brain regions onto traits and diseases. Second, developments in genetics research demonstrate that robust study results can be achieved by increasing sample sizes. Third and fourth, the success of genome-wide association studies motivates the use of mass-univariate testing and sharing summary-level association data to boost large-scale collaboration and meta-analysis. Finally, applying genetics methods dealing with complex data structures to vertex-wise (or voxel-wise) neuroimaging data promises more robust discoveries without the need to develop novel neuroimaging-specific methods. Those practices - that are firmly established in genetics research - should either be further endorsed, or newly adopted by the neuroimaging community, promising to accelerate the evolution of Neuroimaging through robust discovery.

A quantified comparison of cortical atlases on the basis of trait morphometricity.

BACKGROUND: Many different brain atlases exist that subdivide the human cortex into dozens or hundreds of regions-of-interest (ROIs). Inconsistency across studies using one or another cortical atlas may contribute to the replication crisis across the neurosciences. METHODS: Here, we provide a quantitative comparison between seven popular cortical atlases (Yeo, Desikan-Killiany, Destrieux, Jülich-Brain, Gordon, Glasser, Schaefer) and vertex-wise measures (thickness, surface area, and volume), to determine which parcellation retains the most information in the analysis of behavioural traits (incl. age, sex, body mass index, and cognitive ability) in the UK Biobank sample (N∼40,000). We use linear mixed models to compare whole-brain morphometricity; the proportion of trait variance accounted for when using a given atlas. RESULTS: Commonly-used atlases resulted in a considerable loss of information compared to vertex-wise representations of cortical structure. Morphometricity increased linearly as a function of the log-number of ROIs included in an atlas, indicating atlas-based analyses miss many true associations and yield limited prediction accuracy. Likelihood ratio tests revealed that low-dimensional atlases accounted for unique trait variance rather than variance common between atlases, suggesting that previous studies likely returned atlas-specific findings. Finally, we found that the commonly-used atlases yielded brain-behaviour associations on par with those obtained with random parcellations, where specific region boundaries were randomly generated. DISCUSSION: Our findings motivate future structural neuroimaging studies to favour vertex-wise cortical representations over coarser atlases, or to consider repeating analyses across multiple atlases, should the use of low-dimensional atlases be necessary. The insights uncovered here imply that cortical atlas choices likely contribute to the lack of reproducibility in ROI-based studies.

Role of polygenic and environmental factors in the co-occurrence of depression and psychosis symptoms: a network analysis.

Depression and psychosis are often comorbid; they also have overlapping genetic and environmental risk factors, including trauma and area-level exposures. The present study aimed to advance understanding of this comorbidity via a network approach, by (1) identifying bridge nodes that connect clusters of lifetime depression and psychosis symptoms and (2) evaluating the influence of polygenic and environmental risk factors in these symptoms. This study included data from European ancestry participants in UK Biobank, a large population-based sample (N = 77,650). In Step 1, a network model identified bridge nodes between lifetime symptoms of depression and psychosis and functional impairment. In Step 2, genetic and environmental risk factors were incorporated to examine the degree to which symptoms associated with polygenic risk scores for depression and schizophrenia, lifetime exposure to trauma and area-level factors (including deprivation, air pollution and greenspace). Feelings of worthlessness, beliefs in unreal conspiracy against oneself, depression impairment and psychosis impairment emerged as bridges between depression and psychosis symptoms. Polygenic risk scores for depression and schizophrenia were predominantly linked with depression and psychosis impairment, respectively, rather than with specific symptoms. Cumulative trauma emerged as a bridge node associating deprivation with feelings of worthlessness and beliefs in unreal conspiracy, indicating that the experience of trauma is prominently linked with the co-occurrence of depression and psychosis symptoms related to negative views of oneself and others. These key symptoms and risk factors provide insights into the lifetime co-occurrence of depression and psychosis.