Biogeographic response of marine plankton to Cenozoic environmental changes.

In palaeontological studies, groups with consistent ecological and morphological traits across a clade's history (functional groups)1 afford different perspectives on biodiversity dynamics than do species and genera2,3, which are evolutionarily ephemeral. Here we analyse Triton, a global dataset of Cenozoic macroperforate planktonic foraminiferal occurrences4, to contextualize changes in latitudinal equitability gradients1, functional diversity, palaeolatitudinal specialization and community equitability. We identify: global morphological communities becoming less specialized preceding the richness increase after the Cretaceous-Palaeogene extinction; ecological specialization during the Early Eocene Climatic Optimum, suggesting inhibitive equatorial temperatures during the peak of the Cenozoic hothouse; increased specialization due to circulation changes across the Eocene-Oligocene transition, preceding the loss of morphological diversity; changes in morphological specialization and richness about 19 million years ago, coeval with pelagic shark extinctions5; delayed onset of changing functional group richness and specialization between hemispheres during the mid-Miocene plankton diversification. The detailed nature of the Triton dataset permits a unique spatiotemporal view of Cenozoic pelagic macroevolution, in which global biogeographic responses of functional communities and richness are decoupled during Cenozoic climate events. The global response of functional groups to similar abiotic selection pressures may depend on the background climatic state (greenhouse or icehouse) to which a group is adapted.

Late Cenozoic cooling restructured global marine plankton communities.

The geographic ranges of marine organisms, including planktonic foraminifera1, diatoms, dinoflagellates2, copepods3 and fish4, are shifting polewards owing to anthropogenic climate change5. However, the extent to which species will move and whether these poleward range shifts represent precursor signals that lead to extinction is unclear6. Understanding the development of marine biodiversity patterns over geological time and the factors that influence them are key to contextualizing these current trends. The fossil record of the macroperforate planktonic foraminifera provides a rich and phylogenetically resolved dataset that provides unique opportunities for understanding marine biogeography dynamics and how species distributions have responded to ancient climate changes. Here we apply a bipartite network approach to quantify group diversity, latitudinal specialization and latitudinal equitability for planktonic foraminifera over the past eight million years using Triton, a recently developed high-resolution global dataset of planktonic foraminiferal occurrences7. The results depict a global, clade-wide shift towards the Equator in ecological and morphological community equitability over the past eight million years in response to temperature changes during the late Cenozoic bipolar ice sheet formation. Collectively, the Triton data indicate the presence of a latitudinal equitability gradient among planktonic foraminiferal functional groups which is coupled to the latitudinal biodiversity gradient only through the geologically recent past (the past two million years). Before this time, latitudinal equitability gradients indicate that higher latitudes promoted community equitability across ecological and morphological groups. Observed range shifts among marine planktonic microorganisms1,2,8 in the recent and geological past suggest substantial poleward expansion of marine communities even under the most conservative future global warming scenarios.

Higher-order effects, continuous species interactions, and trait evolution shape microbial spatial dynamics.

The assembly and maintenance of microbial diversity in natural communities, despite the abundance of toxin-based antagonistic interactions, presents major challenges for biological understanding. A common framework for investigating such antagonistic interactions involves cyclic dominance games with pairwise interactions. The incorporation of higher-order interactions in such models permits increased levels of microbial diversity, especially in communities in which antibiotic-producing, sensitive, and resistant strains coexist. However, most such models involve a small number of discrete species, assume a notion of pure cyclic dominance, and focus on low mutation rate regimes, none of which well represent the highly interlinked, quickly evolving, and continuous nature of microbial phenotypic space. Here, we present an alternative vision of spatial dynamics for microbial communities based on antagonistic interactions-one in which a large number of species interact in continuous phenotypic space, are capable of rapid mutation, and engage in both direct and higher-order interactions mediated by production of and resistance to antibiotics. Focusing on toxin production, vulnerability, and inhibition among species, we observe highly divergent patterns of diversity and spatial community dynamics. We find that species interaction constraints (rather than mobility) best predict spatiotemporal disturbance regimes, whereas community formation time, mobility, and mutation size best explain patterns of diversity. We also report an intriguing relationship among community formation time, spatial disturbance regimes, and diversity dynamics. This relationship, which suggests that both higher-order interactions and rapid evolution are critical for the origin and maintenance of microbial diversity, has broad-ranging links to the maintenance of diversity in other systems.

Animal soundscapes reveal key markers of Amazon forest degradation from fire and logging.

Safeguarding tropical forest biodiversity requires solutions for monitoring ecosystem structure over time. In the Amazon, logging and fire reduce forest carbon stocks and alter habitat, but the long-term consequences for wildlife remain unclear, especially for lesser-known taxa. Here, we combined multiday acoustic surveys, airborne lidar, and satellite time series covering logged and burned forests (n = 39) in the southern Brazilian Amazon to identify acoustic markers of forest degradation. Our findings contradict expectations from the Acoustic Niche Hypothesis that animal communities in more degraded habitats occupy fewer "acoustic niches" defined by time and frequency. Instead, we found that aboveground biomass was not a consistent proxy for acoustic biodiversity due to the divergent patterns of "acoustic space occupancy" between logged and burned forests. Ecosystem soundscapes highlighted a stark, and sustained reorganization in acoustic community assembly after multiple fires; animal communication networks were quieter, more homogenous, and less acoustically integrated in forests burned multiple times than in logged or once-burned forests. These findings demonstrate strong biodiversity cobenefits from protecting burned Amazon forests from recurrent fire. By contrast, soundscape changes after logging were subtle and more consistent with acoustic community recovery than reassembly. In both logged and burned forests, insects were the dominant acoustic markers of degradation, particularly during midday and nighttime hours, which are not typically sampled by traditional biodiversity field surveys. The acoustic fingerprints of degradation history were conserved across replicate recording locations, indicating that soundscapes may offer a robust, taxonomically inclusive solution for digitally tracking changes in acoustic community composition over time.

Towards a mechanistic understanding of variation in aquatic food chain length.

Ecologists have long sought to understand variation in food chain length (FCL) among natural ecosystems. Various drivers of FCL, including ecosystem size, resource productivity and disturbance, have been hypothesised. However, when results are aggregated across existing empirical studies from aquatic ecosystems, we observe mixed FCL responses to these drivers. To understand this variability, we develop a unified competition-colonisation framework for complex food webs incorporating all of these drivers. With competition-colonisation tradeoffs among basal species, our model predicts that increasing ecosystem size generally results in a monotonic increase in FCL, while FCL displays non-linear, oscillatory responses to resource productivity or disturbance in large ecosystems featuring little disturbance or high productivity. Interestingly, such complex responses mirror patterns in empirical data. Therefore, this study offers a novel mechanistic explanation for observed variations in aquatic FCL driven by multiple environmental factors.

Incorporating multidimensional behavior into a risk management tool for a critically endangered and migratory species.

Conservation of migratory species exhibiting wide-ranging and multidimensional behaviors is challenged by management efforts that only utilize horizontal movements or produce static spatial-temporal products. For the deep-diving, critically endangered eastern Pacific leatherback turtle, tools that predict where turtles have high risks of fisheries interactions are urgently needed to prevent further population decline. We incorporated horizontal-vertical movement model results with spatial-temporal kernel density estimates and threat data (gear-specific fishing) to develop monthly maps of spatial risk. Specifically, we applied multistate hidden Markov models to a biotelemetry data set (n = 28 leatherback tracks, 2004-2007). Tracks with dive information were used to characterize turtle behavior as belonging to 1 of 3 states (transiting, residential with mixed diving, and residential with deep diving). Recent fishing effort data from Global Fishing Watch were integrated with predicted behaviors and monthly space-use estimates to create maps of relative risk of turtle-fisheries interactions. Drifting (pelagic) longline fishing gear had the highest average monthly fishing effort in the study region, and risk indices showed this gear to also have the greatest potential for high-risk interactions with turtles in a residential, deep-diving behavioral state. Monthly relative risk surfaces for all gears and behaviors were added to South Pacific TurtleWatch (SPTW) (https://www.upwell.org/sptw), a dynamic management tool for this leatherback population. These modifications will refine SPTW's capability to provide important predictions of potential high-risk bycatch areas for turtles undertaking specific behaviors. Our results demonstrate how multidimensional movement data, spatial-temporal density estimates, and threat data can be used to create a unique conservation tool. These methods serve as a framework for incorporating behavior into similar tools for other aquatic, aerial, and terrestrial taxa with multidimensional movement behaviors.

Incorporación del comportamiento multidimensional a una herramienta de gestión de riesgos para una especie migratoria en peligro crítico Resumen La conservación de especies migratorias con comportamientos amplios y multidimensionales se enfrenta a los esfuerzos de gestión que sólo utilizan movimientos horizontales o que producen resultados espaciotemporales estáticos. La tortuga laúd, una especie de las profundidades en peligro crítico, necesita con urgencia herramientas que pronostiquen los lugares en donde las tortugas tienen mayor riesgo de interactuar con las pesquerías para prevenir una mayor declinación poblacional. Incorporamos los resultados de un modelo de movimiento horizontal-vertical a las estimaciones de la densidad del núcleo espaciotemporal y de los datos de amenaza (equipo de pesca específico) para desarrollar mapas mensuales del riesgo espacial. De manera más concreta, aplicamos modelos ocultos multiestado de Markov a un conjunto de datos de biotelemetría (n=28 rastros de tortugas laúd, 2004-2007). Usamos los rastros con información de inmersión para caracterizar el comportamiento de las tortugas como uno de tres estados: en tránsito, inmersión mixta o por residencia e inmersión profunda o por residencia. Integramos los datos recientes del esfuerzo de pesca tomados de Global Fishing Watch a los comportamientos pronosticados y las estimaciones del uso mensual del espacio para crear mapas del riesgo relativo de las interacciones tortuga-pesquería. La pesca con palangre de deriva (pelágica) tuvo el promedio mensual más alto de esfuerzo de pesca en la región de estudio. Los índices de riesgo indicaron que este equipo también tiene el potencial más elevado de interacciones de alto riesgo con las tortugas en estado residencial o de inmersión profunda. Añadimos los comportamientos y las superficies de riesgo relativo mensuales a South Pacific Turtle Watch (SPTW) (https://www.upwell.org/sptw), una herramienta dinámica para la gestión de esta población de laúdes. Estos cambios pulirán la capacidad de SPTW para proporcionar predicciones importantes de las áreas con potencial alto de riesgo de pesca accesoria para las tortugas con comportamientos específicos. Nuestros resultados demuestran cómo los datos de movimiento multidimensional, las estimaciones de densidad espaciotemporal y los datos de amenaza pueden ser usados para crear una herramienta única de conservación. Estos métodos sirven como marco para incorporar el comportamiento a herramientas similares para otros taxones acuáticos, aéreos y terrestres con comportamientos multidimensionales.

Implicit versus explicit vector management strategies in models for vector-borne disease epidemiology.

Throughout the vector-borne disease modeling literature, there exist two general frameworks for incorporating vector management strategies (e.g. area-wide adulticide spraying and larval source reduction campaigns) into vector population models, namely, the "implicit" and "explicit" control frameworks. The more simplistic "implicit" framework facilitates derivation of mathematically rigorous results on disease suppression and optimal control, but the biological connection of these results to real-world "explicit" control actions that could guide specific management actions is vague at best. Here, we formally define a biological and mathematical relationship between implicit and explicit control, and we provide mathematical expressions relating the strength of implicit control to management-relevant properties of explicit control for four common intervention strategies. These expressions allow the optimal control and basic reproduction number analyses typically utilized in implicit control modeling to be interpreted directly in terms of real-world actions and real-world monetary costs. Our methods reveal that only certain sub-classes of explicit control protocols are able to be represented as implicit controls, and that implicit control is a meaningful approximation of explicit control only when resonance-like synergistic effects between multiple explicit controls have negligible effects on population reduction. When non-negligible synergy exists, implicit control results, despite their mathematical tidiness, fail to provide accurate predictions regarding vector control and disease spread. Collectively, these elements build an effective bridge between analytically interesting and mathematically tractable implicit control and the challenging, action-oriented explicit control.

Linking high GC content to the repair of double strand breaks in prokaryotic genomes.

Genomic GC content varies widely among microbes for reasons unknown. While mutation bias partially explains this variation, prokaryotes near-universally have a higher GC content than predicted solely by this bias. Debate surrounds the relative importance of the remaining explanations of selection versus biased gene conversion favoring GC alleles. Some environments (e.g. soils) are associated with a high genomic GC content of their inhabitants, which implies that either high GC content is a selective adaptation to particular habitats, or that certain habitats favor increased rates of gene conversion. Here, we report a novel association between the presence of the non-homologous end joining DNA double-strand break repair pathway and GC content; this observation suggests that DNA damage may be a fundamental driver of GC content, leading in part to the many environmental patterns observed to-date. We discuss potential mechanisms accounting for the observed association, and provide preliminary evidence that sites experiencing higher rates of double-strand breaks are under selection for increased GC content relative to the genomic background.

Exploring the functional composition of the human microbiome using a hand-curated microbial trait database.

BACKGROUND: Even when microbial communities vary wildly in their taxonomic composition, their functional composition is often surprisingly stable. This suggests that a functional perspective could provide much deeper insight into the principles governing microbiome assembly. Much work to date analyzing the functional composition of microbial communities, however, relies heavily on inference from genomic features. Unfortunately, output from these methods can be hard to interpret and often suffers from relatively high error rates. RESULTS: We built and analyzed a domain-specific microbial trait database from known microbe-trait pairs recorded in the literature to better understand the functional composition of the human microbiome. Using a combination of phylogentically conscious machine learning tools and a network science approach, we were able to link particular traits to areas of the human body, discover traits that determine the range of body areas a microbe can inhabit, and uncover drivers of metabolic breadth. CONCLUSIONS: Domain-specific trait databases are an effective compromise between noisy methods to infer complex traits from genomic data and exhaustive, expensive attempts at database curation from the literature that do not focus on any one subset of taxa. They provide an accurate account of microbial traits and, by limiting the number of taxa considered, are feasible to build within a reasonable time-frame. We present a database specific for the human microbiome, in the hopes that this will prove useful for research into the functional composition of human-associated microbial communities.

Memory-driven movement model for periodic migrations.

We propose a model for memory-based movement of an individual. The dynamics are modeled by a stochastic differential equation, coupled with an eikonal equation, whose potential depends on the individual's memory and perception. Under a simple periodic environment, we discover that both long and short-term memory with appropriate time scales are essential for producing expected periodic migrations.

Managing disease outbreaks: The importance of vector mobility and spatially heterogeneous control.

Management strategies for control of vector-borne diseases, for example Zika or dengue, include using larvicide and/or adulticide, either through large-scale application by truck or plane or through door-to-door efforts that require obtaining permission to access private property and spray yards. The efficacy of the latter strategy is highly dependent on the compliance of local residents. Here we develop a model for vector-borne disease transmission between mosquitoes and humans in a neighborhood setting, considering a network of houses connected via nearest-neighbor mosquito movement. We incorporate large-scale application of adulticide via aerial spraying through a uniform increase in vector death rates in all sites, and door-to-door application of larval source reduction and adulticide through a decrease in vector emergence rates and an increase in vector death rates in compliant sites only, where control efficacies are directly connected to real-world experimentally measurable control parameters, application frequencies, and control costs. To develop mechanistic insight into the influence of vector motion and compliance clustering on disease controllability, we determine the basic reproduction number R0 for the system, provide analytic results for the extreme cases of no mosquito movement, infinite hopping rates, and utilize degenerate perturbation theory for the case of slow but non-zero hopping rates. We then determine the application frequencies required for each strategy (alone and combined) in order to reduce R0 to unity, along with the associated costs. Cost-optimal strategies are found to depend strongly on mosquito hopping rates, levels of door-to-door compliance, and spatial clustering of compliant houses, and can include aerial spray alone, door-to-door treatment alone, or a combination of both. The optimization scheme developed here provides a flexible tool for disease management planners which translates modeling results into actionable control advice adaptable to system-specific details.

How range residency and long-range perception change encounter rates.

Encounter rates link movement strategies to intra- and inter-specific interactions, and therefore translate individual movement behavior into higher-level ecological processes. Indeed, a large body of interacting population theory rests on the law of mass action, which can be derived from assumptions of Brownian motion in an enclosed container with exclusively local perception. These assumptions imply completely uniform space use, individual home ranges equivalent to the population range, and encounter dependent on movement paths actually crossing. Mounting empirical evidence, however, suggests that animals use space non-uniformly, occupy home ranges substantially smaller than the population range, and are often capable of nonlocal perception. Here, we explore how these empirically supported behaviors change pairwise encounter rates. Specifically, we derive novel analytical expressions for encounter rates under Ornstein-Uhlenbeck motion, which features non-uniform space use and allows individual home ranges to differ from the population range. We compare OU-based encounter predictions to those of Reflected Brownian Motion, from which the law of mass action can be derived. For both models, we further explore how the interplay between the scale of perception and home-range size affects encounter rates. We find that neglecting realistic movement and perceptual behaviors can lead to systematic, non-negligible biases in encounter-rate predictions.

Detecting interaction networks in the human microbiome with conditional Granger causality.

Human microbiome research is rife with studies attempting to deduce microbial correlation networks from sequencing data. Standard correlation and/or network analyses may be misleading when taken as an indication of taxon interactions because "correlation is neither necessary nor sufficient to establish causation"; environmental filtering can lead to correlation between non-interacting taxa. Unfortunately, microbial ecologists have generally used correlation as a proxy for causality although there is a general consensus about what constitutes a causal relationship: causes both precede and predict effects. We apply one of the first causal models for detecting interactions in human microbiome samples. Specifically, we analyze a long duration, high resolution time series of the human microbiome to decipher the networks of correlation and causation of human-associated microbial genera. We show that correlation is not a good proxy for biological interaction; we observed a weak negative relationship between correlation and causality. Strong interspecific interactions are disproportionately positive, whereas almost all strong intraspecific interactions are negative. Interestingly, intraspecific interactions also appear to act at a short timescale causing vast majority of the effects within 1-3 days. We report how different taxa are involved in causal relationships with others, and show that strong interspecific interactions are rarely conserved across two body sites whereas strong intraspecific interactions are much more conserved, ranging from 33% between the gut and right-hand to 70% between the two hands. Therefore, in the absence of guiding assumptions about ecological interactions, Granger causality and related techniques may be particularly helpful for understanding the driving factors governing microbiome composition and structure.

Matching expert range maps with species distribution model predictions.

Species' range maps based on expert opinion are a critical resource for conservation planning. Expert maps are usually accompanied by species descriptions that specify sources of internal range heterogeneity, such as habitat associations, but these are rarely considered when using expert maps for analyses. We developed a quantitative metric (expert score) to evaluate the agreement between an expert map and a habitat probability surface obtained from a species distribution model. This method rewards both the avoidance of unsuitable sites and the inclusion of suitable sites in the expert map. We obtained expert maps of 330 butterfly species from each of 2 widely used North American sources (Glassberg [1999, 2001] and Scott [1986]) and computed species-wise expert scores for each. Overall, the Glassberg maps secured higher expert scores than Scott (0.61 and 0.41, respectively) due to the specific rules (e.g., Glassberg only included regions where the species was known to reproduce whereas Scott included all areas a species expanded to each year) they used to include or exclude areas from ranges. The predictive performance of expert maps was almost always hampered by the inclusion of unsuitable sites, rather than by exclusion of suitable sites (deviance outside of expert maps was extremely low). Map topology was the primary predictor of expert performance rather than any factor related to species characteristics such as mobility. Given the heterogeneity and discontinuity of suitable landscapes, expert maps drawn with more detail are more likely to agree with species distribution models and thus minimize both commission and omission errors.

Concordancia entre los Mapas de Extensión Realizados por Expertos y las Predicciones de los Modelos de Distribución de Especies Resumen Los mapas de extensión de especies basados en la opinión de expertos son un recurso de suma importancia para la planeación de la conservación. Los mapas realizados por expertos generalmente van acompañados de las descripciones de las especies que detallan el origen de la heterogeneidad interna de la distribución, como las asociaciones entre hábitats, pero rara vez se consideran estas descripciones cuando se usan los mapas de expertos para un análisis. Desarrollamos una medida cuantitativa (puntaje de expertos) para evaluar la concordancia entre un mapa realizado por expertos y una superficie probable de hábitat obtenida a partir del modelo de distribución de especies (SDM). Este método recompensa tanto a la evasión de sitios inadecuados como a la inclusión de sitios adecuados en el mapa realizado por expertos. Obtuvimos los mapas realizados por expertos para 330 especies de mariposas a partir de dos fuentes norteamericanas usadas ampliamente (Glassberg [1999, 2001] y Scott [1986]) y calculamos los puntajes de expertos, hablando de cada especie, para cada mapa. En general, los mapas de Glassberg aseguraron puntajes de expertos más altos que los de Scott (0.61 y 0.41 respectivamente) debido a las reglas específicas (p. ej., Glassberg sólo incluyó las regiones en donde es sabido que la especie se reproduce, mientras que Scott incluyó todas las áreas a las que la especie se expandió cada año) que cada una usa para incluir o excluir áreas de las distribuciones. El desempeño pronosticado de los mapas realizados por expertos casi siempre se vio afectado por la inclusión de los sitios inadecuados, en lugar de estar afectado por la exclusión de sitios adecuados (la desviación fuera de los mapas realizados por expertos fue extremadamente baja). La topología del mapa fue el indicador primario del desempeño de los expertos en lugar de cualquier factor relacionado con las características de la especie, como la movilidad. Dada la heterogeneidad y la discontinuidad de los paisajes adecuados, los mapas realizados por expertos dibujados con mayor detalle tienen una mayor probabilidad de concordar con los SMD y por lo tanto minimizar los errores de comisión y de omisión.

How Phenological Variation Affects Species Spreading Speeds.

In this paper, we develop a phenologically explicit reaction-diffusion model to analyze the spatial spread of a univoltine insect species. Our model assumes four explicit life stages: adult, two larval, and pupa, with a fourth, implicit, egg stage modeled as a time delay between oviposition and emergence as a larva. As such, our model is broadly applicable to holometabolous insects. To account for phenology (seasonal biological timing), we introduce four time-dependent phenological functions describing adult emergence, oviposition and larval conversion, respectively. Emergence is defined as the per-capita probability of an adult emerging from the pupal stage at a particular time. Oviposition is defined as the per-capita rate of adult egg deposition at a particular time. Two functions deal with the larva stage 1 to larva stage 2, and larva stage 2 to pupa conversion as per-capita rate of conversion at a particular time. This very general formulation allows us to accommodate a wide variety of alternative insect phenologies and lifestyles. We provide the moment-generating function for the general linearized system in terms of phenological functions and model parameters. We prove that the spreading speed of the linearized system is the same as that for nonlinear system. We then find explicit solutions for the spreading speed of the insect population for the limiting cases where (1) emergence and oviposition are impulsive (i.e., take place over an extremely narrow time window), larval conversion occurs at a constant rate, and larvae are immobile, (2) emergence and oviposition are impulsive (i.e., take place over an extremely narrow time window), larval conversion occurs at a constant rate starting at a delayed time from egg hatch, and larvae are immobile, and (3) emergence, oviposition, and larval conversion are impulsive. To consider other biological scenarios, including cases with emergence and oviposition windows of finite width as well as mobile larvae, we use numerical simulations. Our results provide a framework for understanding how phenology can interact with spatial spread to facilitate (or hinder) species expansion. This is an important area of research within the context of global change, which brings both new invasive species and range shifts for native species, all the while causing perturbations to species phenology that may impact the abilities of native and invasive populations to spread.

Foraging and inter-individual distances of bearded capuchin monkeys.

Extractive foraging is a skill young capuchin monkeys learn over time. A key unknown is whether unskilled individuals occupy spatial positions that increase their opportunities to learn. We observed the spatial positions of individuals in a group of capuchin monkeys in Northeastern Brazil. To improve our understanding of the relationship between learning by young capuchin monkeys and inter-individual distance, we investigated the associations between the proximity of individuals and their age, activity, and proficiency at extractive foraging. To do this, we used one form of extractive foraging, opening palm nuts, as an index of proficiency at all types of extractive foraging. Our results indicate that, in the subset of the data where dyads consisted of one proficient individual and a partner with any level of proficiency, the distance between individuals was predicted by their foraging activity (i.e., extractive foraging, other foraging, or not foraging). In those dyads, the proficiency of the partner did not significantly improve prediction of inter-individual distances, indicating that spatial proximity of proficient individuals to others does not function primarily to increase opportunities for unskilled individuals to observe extractive foraging. Dyads in which both individuals were engaged in similar foraging activities (e.g., both "extractive foraging") exhibited the shortest inter-individual distances. Proximity between individuals engaged in similar foraging activities may result from the spatial distribution of resources or from social learning mechanisms, such as local or stimulus enhancement.

Perceptual Ranges, Information Gathering, and Foraging Success in Dynamic Landscapes.

How organisms gather and utilize information about their landscapes is central to understanding land-use patterns and population distributions. When such information originates beyond an individual's immediate vicinity, movement decisions require integrating information out to some perceptual range. Such nonlocal information, whether obtained visually, acoustically, or via chemosensation, provides a field of stimuli that guides movement. Classically, however, models have assumed movement based on purely local information (e.g., chemotaxis, step-selection functions). Here we explore how foragers can exploit nonlocal information to improve their success in dynamic landscapes. Using a continuous time/continuous space model in which we vary both random (diffusive) movement and resource-following (advective) movement, we characterize the optimal perceptual ranges for foragers in dynamic landscapes. Nonlocal information can be highly beneficial, increasing the spatiotemporal concentration of foragers on their resources up to twofold compared with movement based on purely local information. However, nonlocal information is most useful when foragers possess both high advective movement (allowing them to react to transient resources) and low diffusive movement (preventing them from drifting away from resource peaks). Nonlocal information is particularly beneficial in landscapes with sharp (rather than gradual) patch edges and in landscapes with highly transient resources.

Invasion dynamics of competing species with stage-structure.

The spread of an invasive species often results in a decline and subsequent disappearance of native competitors. Several models, primarily based on spatially explicit Lotka-Volterra competition dynamics, have been developed to understand this phenomenon. In general, the goal of these models is to relate fundamental life history traits, for example dispersal ability and competition strength, to the rate of spread of the invasive species, which is also the rate at which the invasive species displaces its native competitor. Stage-structure is often an important determinant of population dynamics, but it has received little attention within the context of Lotka-Volterra invasion models. For many species, behaviors like dispersal and competition depend on life-stage. To describe the processes of invasion in these species, it is important to understand how behaviors that vary as a function of life-stage can impact spread rate. In this paper, we develop a spatially explicit, stage-structured Lotka-Volterra competition model. By comparing spread speed predictions from this model to spread speed predictions from an analogous single-stage model, we are able to determine when stage-structure is important and how stage-dependent behavior can alter the characteristics of an invasion.

Invasion speeds in microbial systems with toxin production and quorum sensing.

The theory of invasions and invasion speeds has traditionally been studied in macroscopic systems. Surprisingly, microbial invasions have received less attention. Although microbes share many of the features associated with competition between larger-bodied organisms, they also exhibit distinctive behaviors that require new mathematical treatments to fully understand invasions in microbial systems. Most notable is the possibility for long-distance interactions, including competition between populations mediated by diffusible toxins and cooperation among individuals of a single population using quorum sensing. In this paper, we model bacterial invasion using a system of coupled partial differential equations based on Fisher's equation. Our model considers a competitive system with diffusible toxins that, in some cases, are expressed in response to quorum sensing. First, we derive analytical approximations for invasion speeds in the limits of fast and slow toxin diffusion. We then test the validity of our analytical approximations and explore intermediate rates of toxin diffusion using numerical simulations. Interestingly, we find that toxins should diffuse quickly when used offensively, but that there are two optimal strategies when toxins are used as a defense mechanism. Specifically, toxins should diffuse quickly when their killing efficacy is high, but should diffuse slowly when their killing efficacy is low. Our approach permits an explicit investigation of the properties and characteristics of diffusible compounds used in non-local competition, and is relevant for microbial systems and select macroscopic taxa, such as plants and corals, that can interact through biochemicals.

A framework for modelling range shifts and migrations: asking when, whither, whether and will it return.

Many animals undertake movements that are longer scaled and more directed than their typical home ranging behaviour. These movements include seasonal migrations (e.g. between breeding and feeding grounds), natal dispersal, nomadic range shifts and responses to local environmental disruptions. While various heuristic tools exist for identifying range shifts and migrations, none explicitly model the movement of the animals within a statistical framework that facilitates quantitative comparisons. We present the mechanistic range shift analysis (MRSA), a method to estimate a suite of range shift parameters: times of initiation, duration of transitions, centroids and areas of respective ranges. The method can take the autocorrelation and irregular sampling that is characteristic of much movement data into account. The mechanistic parameters suggest an intuitive measure, the range shift index, for the extent of a range shift. The likelihood based estimation further allows for statistical tests of several relevant hypotheses, including a range shift test, a stopover test and a site fidelity test. The analysis tools are provided in an R package (marcher). We applied the MRSA to a population of GPS tracked roe deer (Capreolus capreolus) in the Italian Alps between 2005 and 2008. With respect to seasonal migration, this population is extremely variable and difficult to classify. Using the MRSA, we were able to quantify the behaviours across the population and among individuals across years, identifying extents, durations and locations of seasonal range shifts, including cases that would have been ambiguous to detect using existing tools. The strongest patterns were differences across years: many animals simply did not perform a seasonal migration to wintering grounds during the mild winter of 2006-2007, even though some of these same animals did move extensively in other, harsher winters. For seasonal migrants, however, site fidelity across years was extremely high, even after skipping an entire seasonal migration. These results suggest that for roe deer behavioural plasticity and tactical responses to immediate environmental cues are reflected in the decision of whether rather than where to migrate. The MRSA also revealed a trade-off between the probability of migrating and the size of a home range.