Tropical forests are approaching critical temperature thresholds.

The critical temperature beyond which photosynthetic machinery in tropical trees begins to fail averages approximately 46.7 °C (Tcrit)1. However, it remains unclear whether leaf temperatures experienced by tropical vegetation approach this threshold or soon will under climate change. Here we found that pantropical canopy temperatures independently triangulated from individual leaf thermocouples, pyrgeometers and remote sensing (ECOSTRESS) have midday peak temperatures of approximately 34 °C during dry periods, with a long high-temperature tail that can exceed 40 °C. Leaf thermocouple data from multiple sites across the tropics suggest that even within pixels of moderate temperatures, upper canopy leaves exceed Tcrit 0.01% of the time. Furthermore, upper canopy leaf warming experiments (+2, 3 and 4 °C in Brazil, Puerto Rico and Australia, respectively) increased leaf temperatures non-linearly, with peak leaf temperatures exceeding Tcrit 1.3% of the time (11% for more than 43.5 °C, and 0.3% for more than 49.9 °C). Using an empirical model incorporating these dynamics (validated with warming experiment data), we found that tropical forests can withstand up to a 3.9 ± 0.5 °C increase in air temperatures before a potential tipping point in metabolic function, but remaining uncertainty in the plasticity and range of Tcrit in tropical trees and the effect of leaf death on tree death could drastically change this prediction. The 4.0 °C estimate is within the 'worst-case scenario' (representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5) of climate change predictions2 for tropical forests and therefore it is still within our power to decide (for example, by not taking the RCP 6.0 or 8.5 route) the fate of these critical realms of carbon, water and biodiversity3,4.

Asynchronous carbon sink saturation in African and Amazonian tropical forests.

Structurally intact tropical forests sequestered about half of the global terrestrial carbon uptake over the 1990s and early 2000s, removing about 15 per cent of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions1-3. Climate-driven vegetation models typically predict that this tropical forest 'carbon sink' will continue for decades4,5. Here we assess trends in the carbon sink using 244 structurally intact African tropical forests spanning 11 countries, compare them with 321 published plots from Amazonia and investigate the underlying drivers of the trends. The carbon sink in live aboveground biomass in intact African tropical forests has been stable for the three decades to 2015, at 0.66 tonnes of carbon per hectare per year (95 per cent confidence interval 0.53-0.79), in contrast to the long-term decline in Amazonian forests6. Therefore the carbon sink responses of Earth's two largest expanses of tropical forest have diverged. The difference is largely driven by carbon losses from tree mortality, with no detectable multi-decadal trend in Africa and a long-term increase in Amazonia. Both continents show increasing tree growth, consistent with the expected net effect of rising atmospheric carbon dioxide and air temperature7-9. Despite the past stability of the African carbon sink, our most intensively monitored plots suggest a post-2010 increase in carbon losses, delayed compared to Amazonia, indicating asynchronous carbon sink saturation on the two continents. A statistical model including carbon dioxide, temperature, drought and forest dynamics accounts for the observed trends and indicates a long-term future decline in the African sink, whereas the Amazonian sink continues to weaken rapidly. Overall, the uptake of carbon into Earth's intact tropical forests peaked in the 1990s. Given that the global terrestrial carbon sink is increasing in size, independent observations indicating greater recent carbon uptake into the Northern Hemisphere landmass10 reinforce our conclusion that the intact tropical forest carbon sink has already peaked. This saturation and ongoing decline of the tropical forest carbon sink has consequences for policies intended to stabilize Earth's climate.

Photosynthetic quantum efficiency in south-eastern Amazonian trees may be already affected by climate change.

Tropical forests are experiencing unprecedented high-temperature conditions due to climate change that could limit their photosynthetic functions. We studied the high-temperature sensitivity of photosynthesis in a rainforest site in southern Amazonia, where some of the highest temperatures and most rapid warming in the Tropics have been recorded. The quantum yield (Fv /Fm ) of photosystem II was measured in seven dominant tree species using leaf discs exposed to varying levels of heat stress. T50 was calculated as the temperature at which Fv /Fm was half the maximum value. T5 is defined as the breakpoint temperature, at which Fv /Fm decline was initiated. Leaf thermotolerance in the rapidly warming southern Amazonia was the highest recorded for forest tree species globally. T50 and T5 varied between species, with one mid-storey species, Amaioua guianensis, exhibiting particularly high T50 and T5 values. While the T50 values of the species sampled were several degrees above the maximum air temperatures experienced in southern Amazonia, the T5 values of several species are now exceeded under present-day maximum air temperatures.

Drier tropical forests are susceptible to functional changes in response to a long-term drought.

Climatic changes have profound effects on the distribution of biodiversity, but untangling the links between climatic change and ecosystem functioning is challenging, particularly in high diversity systems such as tropical forests. Tropical forests may also show different responses to a changing climate, with baseline climatic conditions potentially inducing differences in the strength and timing of responses to droughts. Trait-based approaches provide an opportunity to link functional composition, ecosystem function and environmental changes. We demonstrate the power of such approaches by presenting a novel analysis of long-term responses of different tropical forest to climatic changes along a rainfall gradient. We explore how key ecosystem's biogeochemical properties have shifted over time as a consequence of multi-decadal drying. Notably, we find that drier tropical forests have increased their deciduous species abundance and generally changed more functionally than forests growing in wetter conditions, suggesting an enhanced ability to adapt ecologically to a drying environment.

Compositional response of Amazon forests to climate change.

Most of the planet's diversity is concentrated in the tropics, which includes many regions undergoing rapid climate change. Yet, while climate-induced biodiversity changes are widely documented elsewhere, few studies have addressed this issue for lowland tropical ecosystems. Here we investigate whether the floristic and functional composition of intact lowland Amazonian forests have been changing by evaluating records from 106 long-term inventory plots spanning 30 years. We analyse three traits that have been hypothesized to respond to different environmental drivers (increase in moisture stress and atmospheric CO2 concentrations): maximum tree size, biogeographic water-deficit affiliation and wood density. Tree communities have become increasingly dominated by large-statured taxa, but to date there has been no detectable change in mean wood density or water deficit affiliation at the community level, despite most forest plots having experienced an intensification of the dry season. However, among newly recruited trees, dry-affiliated genera have become more abundant, while the mortality of wet-affiliated genera has increased in those plots where the dry season has intensified most. Thus, a slow shift to a more dry-affiliated Amazonia is underway, with changes in compositional dynamics (recruits and mortality) consistent with climate-change drivers, but yet to significantly impact whole-community composition. The Amazon observational record suggests that the increase in atmospheric CO2 is driving a shift within tree communities to large-statured species and that climate changes to date will impact forest composition, but long generation times of tropical trees mean that biodiversity change is lagging behind climate change.

Differences in leaf thermoregulation and water use strategies between three co-occurring Atlantic forest tree species.

Given anticipated climate changes, it is crucial to understand controls on leaf temperatures including variation between species in diverse ecosystems. In the first study of leaf energy balance in tropical montane forests, we observed current leaf temperature patterns on 3 tree species in the Atlantic forest, Brazil, over a 10-day period and assessed whether and why patterns may vary among species. We found large leaf-to-air temperature differences (maximum 18.3 °C) and high leaf temperatures (over 35 °C) despite much lower air temperatures (maximum 22 °C). Leaf-to-air temperature differences were influenced strongly by radiation, whereas leaf temperatures were also influenced by air temperature. Leaf energy balance modelling informed by our measurements showed that observed differences in leaf temperature between 2 species were due to variation in leaf width and stomatal conductance. The results suggest a trade-off between water use and leaf thermoregulation; Miconia cabussu has more conservative water use compared with Alchornea triplinervia due to lower transpiration under high vapour pressure deficit, with the consequence of higher leaf temperatures under thermal stress conditions. We highlight the importance of leaf functional traits for leaf thermoregulation and also note that the high radiation levels that occur in montane forests may exacerbate the threat from increasing air temperatures.

Variation in stem mortality rates determines patterns of above-ground biomass in Amazonian forests: implications for dynamic global vegetation models.

Understanding the processes that determine above-ground biomass (AGB) in Amazonian forests is important for predicting the sensitivity of these ecosystems to environmental change and for designing and evaluating dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs). AGB is determined by inputs from woody productivity [woody net primary productivity (NPP)] and the rate at which carbon is lost through tree mortality. Here, we test whether two direct metrics of tree mortality (the absolute rate of woody biomass loss and the rate of stem mortality) and/or woody NPP, control variation in AGB among 167 plots in intact forest across Amazonia. We then compare these relationships and the observed variation in AGB and woody NPP with the predictions of four DGVMs. The observations show that stem mortality rates, rather than absolute rates of woody biomass loss, are the most important predictor of AGB, which is consistent with the importance of stand size structure for determining spatial variation in AGB. The relationship between stem mortality rates and AGB varies among different regions of Amazonia, indicating that variation in wood density and height/diameter relationships also influences AGB. In contrast to previous findings, we find that woody NPP is not correlated with stem mortality rates and is weakly positively correlated with AGB. Across the four models, basin-wide average AGB is similar to the mean of the observations. However, the models consistently overestimate woody NPP and poorly represent the spatial patterns of both AGB and woody NPP estimated using plot data. In marked contrast to the observations, DGVMs typically show strong positive relationships between woody NPP and AGB. Resolving these differences will require incorporating forest size structure, mechanistic models of stem mortality and variation in functional composition in DGVMs.

The pace of life for forest trees.

Tree growth and longevity trade-offs fundamentally shape the terrestrial carbon balance. Yet, we lack a unified understanding of how such trade-offs vary across the world's forests. By mapping life history traits for a wide range of species across the Americas, we reveal considerable variation in life expectancies from 10 centimeters in diameter (ranging from 1.3 to 3195 years) and show that the pace of life for trees can be accurately classified into four demographic functional types. We found emergent patterns in the strength of trade-offs between growth and longevity across a temperature gradient. Furthermore, we show that the diversity of life history traits varies predictably across forest biomes, giving rise to a positive relationship between trait diversity and productivity. Our pan-latitudinal assessment provides new insights into the demographic mechanisms that govern the carbon turnover rate across forest biomes.

Drought-induced shifts in the floristic and functional composition of tropical forests in Ghana.

The future of tropical forests under global environmental change is uncertain, with biodiversity and carbon stocks at risk if precipitation regimes alter. Here, we assess changes in plant functional composition and biomass in 19 plots from a variety of forest types during two decades of long-term drought in Ghana. We find a consistent increase in dry forest, deciduous, canopy species with intermediate light demand and a concomitant decrease in wet forest, evergreen, sub-canopy and shade-tolerant species. These changes in composition are accompanied by an increase in above-ground biomass. Our results indicate that by altering composition in favour of drought-tolerant species, the biomass stocks of these forests may be more resilient to longer term drought than short-term studies of severe individual droughts suggest.

Thermal safety margins of plant leaves across biomes under a heatwave.

Climate change has great impacts on forest ecosystems, especially with the increasing frequency of heatwaves. Thermal safety margin (TSM) calculated by the difference between body temperature and thermotolerance threshold is useful to predict thermal safety of organisms. It has been widely used for animals, whereas has rarely been reported for plants. Besides, most of the previous studies used only thermotolerance to estimate thermal safety or used thermotolerance and air temperature (Ta) to calculate TSM. However, leaf temperature (Tl) is the real "body" temperature of plant leaves. Tl decoupling from Ta might induce large error in TSM. Here, we investigated TSM of photosystem II (thermotolerance of PSII - the maximum Tl) of dominant canopy plants in four forests from tropical to temperate biomes during a heatwave, and compared the TSMs calculated by Tl (TSM.Tl) and Ta (TSM.Ta) respectively. Also, thermal related leaf traits were investigated. The results showed that both TSM. Tl and TSM.Ta decreased from the cool forests to the hot forests. TSM.Tl was highly correlated with the maximum leaf temperature (Tlmax), while had an opposite trend with thermotolerance across biomes. Thus, Tlmax instead of thermotolerance can be used to evaluate TSM. The maximum Ta (Tamax), Tlmax and leaf traits explained 68% of the variance of thermotolerance in a random forest model, where Tamax and Tlmax explained 62%. TSM.Ta could not distinguish thermal safety differences between co-occurring species. The overestimation of TSM by TSM.Ta increased from the tropical to the temperate forest, and increased with Tl within biome. Therefore, it is not recommended to use TSM.Ta in cold forests. The present study enriches the dataset of photosynthetic TSMs across biomes, proposes using Tlmax to estimate TSMs of leaves, and highlights the risk of hot dry forest during heatwaves.

Amazon tree dominance across forest strata.

The forests of Amazonia are among the most biodiverse plant communities on Earth. Given the immediate threats posed by climate and land-use change, an improved understanding of how this extraordinary biodiversity is spatially organized is urgently required to develop effective conservation strategies. Most Amazonian tree species are extremely rare but a few are common across the region. Indeed, just 227 'hyperdominant' species account for >50% of all individuals >10 cm diameter at 1.3 m in height. Yet, the degree to which the phenomenon of hyperdominance is sensitive to tree size, the extent to which the composition of dominant species changes with size class and how evolutionary history constrains tree hyperdominance, all remain unknown. Here, we use a large floristic dataset to show that, while hyperdominance is a universal phenomenon across forest strata, different species dominate the forest understory, midstory and canopy. We further find that, although species belonging to a range of phylogenetically dispersed lineages have become hyperdominant in small size classes, hyperdominants in large size classes are restricted to a few lineages. Our results demonstrate that it is essential to consider all forest strata to understand regional patterns of dominance and composition in Amazonia. More generally, through the lens of 654 hyperdominant species, we outline a tractable pathway for understanding the functioning of half of Amazonian forests across vertical strata and geographical locations.

Long-term droughts may drive drier tropical forests towards increased functional, taxonomic and phylogenetic homogeneity.

Tropical ecosystems adapted to high water availability may be highly impacted by climatic changes that increase soil and atmospheric moisture deficits. Many tropical regions are experiencing significant changes in climatic conditions, which may induce strong shifts in taxonomic, functional and phylogenetic diversity of forest communities. However, it remains unclear if and to what extent tropical forests are shifting in these facets of diversity along climatic gradients in response to climate change. Here, we show that changes in climate affected all three facets of diversity in West Africa in recent decades. Taxonomic and functional diversity increased in wetter forests but tended to decrease in forests with drier climate. Phylogenetic diversity showed a large decrease along a wet-dry climatic gradient. Notably, we find that all three facets of diversity tended to be higher in wetter forests. Drier forests showed functional, taxonomic and phylogenetic homogenization. Understanding how different facets of diversity respond to a changing environment across climatic gradients is essential for effective long-term conservation of tropical forest ecosystems.

Tree mode of death and mortality risk factors across Amazon forests.

The carbon sink capacity of tropical forests is substantially affected by tree mortality. However, the main drivers of tropical tree death remain largely unknown. Here we present a pan-Amazonian assessment of how and why trees die, analysing over 120,000 trees representing > 3800 species from 189 long-term RAINFOR forest plots. While tree mortality rates vary greatly Amazon-wide, on average trees are as likely to die standing as they are broken or uprooted-modes of death with different ecological consequences. Species-level growth rate is the single most important predictor of tree death in Amazonia, with faster-growing species being at higher risk. Within species, however, the slowest-growing trees are at greatest risk while the effect of tree size varies across the basin. In the driest Amazonian region species-level bioclimatic distributional patterns also predict the risk of death, suggesting that these forests are experiencing climatic conditions beyond their adaptative limits. These results provide not only a holistic pan-Amazonian picture of tree death but large-scale evidence for the overarching importance of the growth-survival trade-off in driving tropical tree mortality.

Competition influences tree growth, but not mortality, across environmental gradients in Amazonia and tropical Africa.

Competition among trees is an important driver of community structure and dynamics in tropical forests. Neighboring trees may impact an individual tree's growth rate and probability of mortality, but large-scale geographic and environmental variation in these competitive effects has yet to be evaluated across the tropical forest biome. We quantified effects of competition on tree-level basal area growth and mortality for trees ≥10-cm diameter across 151 ~1-ha plots in mature tropical forests in Amazonia and tropical Africa by developing nonlinear models that accounted for wood density, tree size, and neighborhood crowding. Using these models, we assessed how water availability (i.e., climatic water deficit) and soil fertility influenced the predicted plot-level strength of competition (i.e., the extent to which growth is reduced, or mortality is increased, by competition across all individual trees). On both continents, tree basal area growth decreased with wood density and increased with tree size. Growth decreased with neighborhood crowding, which suggests that competition is important. Tree mortality decreased with wood density and generally increased with tree size, but was apparently unaffected by neighborhood crowding. Across plots, variation in the plot-level strength of competition was most strongly related to plot basal area (i.e., the sum of the basal area of all trees in a plot), with greater reductions in growth occurring in forests with high basal area, but in Amazonia, the strength of competition also varied with plot-level wood density. In Amazonia, the strength of competition increased with water availability because of the greater basal area of wetter forests, but was only weakly related to soil fertility. In Africa, competition was weakly related to soil fertility and invariant across the shorter water availability gradient. Overall, our results suggest that competition influences the structure and dynamics of tropical forests primarily through effects on individual tree growth rather than mortality and that the strength of competition largely depends on environment-mediated variation in basal area.

Tropical forest light regimes in a human-modified landscape.

Light is the key energy input for all vegetated systems. Forest light regimes are complex, with the vertical pattern of light within canopies influenced by forest structure. Human disturbances in tropical forests impact forest structure and hence may influence the light environment and thus competitiveness of different trees. In this study, we measured vertical diffuse light profiles along a gradient of anthropogenic disturbance, sampling intact, logged, secondary, and fragmented sites in the biodiversity hot spot of the Atlantic forest, southeast Brazil, using photosynthetically active radiation sensors and a novel approach with estimations of vertical light profiles from hemispherical photographs. Our results show clear differences in vertical light profiles with disturbance: Fragmented forests are characterized by rapid light extinction within their low canopies, while the profiles in logged forests show high heterogeneity and high light in the mid-canopy despite decades of recovery. The secondary forest showed similar light profiles to intact forest, but with a lower canopy height. We also show that in some cases the upper canopy layer and heavy liana infestations can severely limit light penetration. Light extinction with height above the ground and depth below the canopy top was highest in fragmented forest and negatively correlated with canopy height. The novel, inexpensive, and rapid methods described here can be applied to other sites to quantify rarely measured vertical light profiles.

Hyperdominance in Amazonian forest carbon cycling.

While Amazonian forests are extraordinarily diverse, the abundance of trees is skewed strongly towards relatively few 'hyperdominant' species. In addition to their diversity, Amazonian trees are a key component of the global carbon cycle, assimilating and storing more carbon than any other ecosystem on Earth. Here we ask, using a unique data set of 530 forest plots, if the functions of storing and producing woody carbon are concentrated in a small number of tree species, whether the most abundant species also dominate carbon cycling, and whether dominant species are characterized by specific functional traits. We find that dominance of forest function is even more concentrated in a few species than is dominance of tree abundance, with only ≈1% of Amazon tree species responsible for 50% of carbon storage and productivity. Although those species that contribute most to biomass and productivity are often abundant, species maximum size is also influential, while the identity and ranking of dominant species varies by function and by region.

Above-ground biomass and structure of 260 African tropical forests.

We report above-ground biomass (AGB), basal area, stem density and wood mass density estimates from 260 sample plots (mean size: 1.2 ha) in intact closed-canopy tropical forests across 12 African countries. Mean AGB is 395.7 Mg dry mass ha⁻¹ (95% CI: 14.3), substantially higher than Amazonian values, with the Congo Basin and contiguous forest region attaining AGB values (429 Mg ha⁻¹) similar to those of Bornean forests, and significantly greater than East or West African forests. AGB therefore appears generally higher in palaeo- compared with neotropical forests. However, mean stem density is low (426 ± 11 stems ha⁻¹ greater than or equal to 100 mm diameter) compared with both Amazonian and Bornean forests (cf. approx. 600) and is the signature structural feature of African tropical forests. While spatial autocorrelation complicates analyses, AGB shows a positive relationship with rainfall in the driest nine months of the year, and an opposite association with the wettest three months of the year; a negative relationship with temperature; positive relationship with clay-rich soils; and negative relationships with C : N ratio (suggesting a positive soil phosphorus-AGB relationship), and soil fertility computed as the sum of base cations. The results indicate that AGB is mediated by both climate and soils, and suggest that the AGB of African closed-canopy tropical forests may be particularly sensitive to future precipitation and temperature changes.