The use of routine laboratory data to predict in-hospital death in medical admissions.

The ability to predict clinical outcomes in the early phase of a patient's hospital admission could facilitate the optimal use of resources, might allow focused surveillance of high-risk patients and might permit early therapy. We investigated the hypothesis that the risk of in-hospital death of general medical patients can be modelled using a small number of commonly used laboratory and administrative items available within the first few hours of hospital admission. Matched administrative and laboratory data from 9497 adult hospital discharges, with a hospital discharge specialty of general medicine, were divided into two subsets. The dataset was split into a single development set, Q(1) (n=2257), and three validation sets, Q(2), Q(3) and Q(4) (n(1)=2335, n(2)=2361, n(3)=2544). Hospital outcome (survival/non-survival) was obtained for all discharges. An outcome model was constructed from binary logistic regression of the development set data. The goodness-of-fit of the model for the validation sets was tested using receiver-operating characteristics curves (c-index) and Hosmer-Lemeshow statistics. Application of the model to the validation sets produced c-indices of 0.779 (Q(2)), 0.764 (Q(3)) and 0.757 (Q(4)), respectively, indicating good discrimination. Hosmer-Lemeshow analysis gave chi(2)=9.43 (Q(2)), chi(2)=7.39 (Q(3)) and chi(2)=8.00 (Q(4)) (p-values of 0.307, 0.495 and 0.433) for 8 degrees of freedom, indicating good calibration. The finding that the risk of hospital death can be predicted with routinely available data very early on after hospital admission has several potential uses. It raises the possibility that the surveillance and treatment of patients might be categorised by risk assessment means. Such a system might also be used to assess clinical performance, to evaluate the benefits of introducing acute care interventions or to investigate differences between acute care systems.

General practitioners' confidence in diagnosing and managing eye conditions: a survey in south Devon.

In order to open dialogue aimed at increasing eye care in general practice and reduce waiting times for ophthalmic outpatient appointments general practitioners in the Torbay health district were asked about their levels of confidence in ophthalmology as a subject, and in the diagnosis and management of specific eye conditions. They were also asked about ophthalmic equipment available to them, their management policies for 34 specific eye conditions, and their perceived need for further training in this subject. A total of 75% of the general practitioners responded to the questionnaire. Despite more than half of the general practitioners indicating that they did not feel confident with ophthalmology generally, most expressed confidence in diagnosing and managing common eye conditions. Basic equipment for examining the eye was available to most doctors. Referral policies varied considerably, and these have resource implications. Seventy eight per cent of respondents were prepared to take on more eye care in general practice, and over 80% of general practitioners requested informal teaching sessions in ophthalmology. Support must be forthcoming if general practitioners are to provide eye care in general practice.