Therapeutic choices and disease activity after 2 years of treatment with cladribine: An Italian multicenter study (CladStop).

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Cladribine tablets, a purine analogue antimetabolite, offer a unique treatment regimen, involving short courses at the start of the first and second year, with no further treatment needed in years 3 and 4. However, comprehensive evidence regarding patient outcomes beyond the initial 24 months of cladribine treatment is limited. METHODS: This retrospective, multicenter study enrolled 204 patients with multiple sclerosis who had completed the 2-year course of cladribine treatment. The primary outcomes were therapeutic choices and clinical disease activity assessed by annualized relapse rate after the 2-year treatment course. RESULTS: A total of 204 patients were enrolled; most patients (75.4%) did not initiate new treatments in the 12 months postcladribine. The study found a significant reduction in annualized relapse rate at the 12-month follow-up after cladribine completion compared to the year prior to starting therapy (0.07 ± 0.25 vs. 0.82 ± 0.80, p < 0.001). Furthermore, patients with relapses during cladribine treatment were more likely to start new therapies, whereas older patients were less likely. The safety profile of cladribine was favorable, with lymphopenia being the primary registered adverse event. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides insights into therapeutic choices and disease activity following cladribine treatment. It highlights cladribine's effectiveness in reducing relapse rates and disability progression, reaffirming its favorable safety profile. Real-world data, aligned with previous reports, draw attention to ocrelizumab and natalizumab as common choices after cladribine. However, larger, prospective studies for validation and a more comprehensive understanding of cladribine's long-term impact are necessary.

Prognostic relevance of quantitative and longitudinal MOG antibody testing in patients with MOGAD: a multicentre retrospective study.

BACKGROUND: IgG antibodies against myelin oligodendrocyte glycoprotein (MOG-IgG) define a subset of associated disorders (myelin oligodendrocyte glycoprotein associated disorders (MOGAD)) that can have a relapsing course. However, information on relapse predictors is scarce. The utility of retesting MOG-IgG over time and measuring their titres is uncertain. We aimed to evaluate the clinical relevance of longitudinal MOG-IgG titre measurement to predict relapses in patients with MOGAD. METHODS: In this retrospective multicentre Italian cohort study, we recruited patients with MOGAD and available longitudinal samples (at least one >3 months after disease onset) and tested them with a live cell-based assay with endpoint titration (1:160 cut-off). Samples were classified as 'attack' (within 30 days since a disease attack (n=59, 17%)) and 'remission' (≥31 days after attack (n=295, 83%)). RESULTS: We included 102 patients with MOGAD (57% adult and 43% paediatric) with a total of 354 samples (83% from remission and 17% from attack). Median titres were higher during attacks (1:1280 vs 1:640, p=0.001). Median onset titres did not correlate with attack-related disability, age or relapses. Remission titres were higher in relapsing patients (p=0.02). When considering the first remission sample available for each patient, titres >1:2560 were predictors of relapsing course in survival (log rank, p<0.001) and multivariate analysis (p<0.001, HR: 10.9, 95% CI 3.4 to 35.2). MOG-IgG seroconversion to negative was associated with a 95% relapse incidence rate reduction (incidence rate ratio: 0.05, p<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Persistent MOG-IgG positivity and high remission titres are associated with an increased relapse risk. Longitudinal MOG-IgG titres could be useful to stratify patients to be treated with long term immunosuppression.

Effectiveness of multiple disease-modifying therapies in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis: causal inference to emulate a multiarm randomised trial.

BACKGROUND: Simultaneous comparisons of multiple disease-modifying therapies for relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) over an extended follow-up are lacking. Here we emulate a randomised trial simultaneously comparing the effectiveness of six commonly used therapies over 5 years. METHODS: Data from 74 centres in 35 countries were sourced from MSBase. For each patient, the first eligible intervention was analysed, censoring at change/discontinuation of treatment. The compared interventions included natalizumab, fingolimod, dimethyl fumarate, teriflunomide, interferon beta, glatiramer acetate and no treatment. Marginal structural Cox models (MSMs) were used to estimate the average treatment effects (ATEs) and the average treatment effects among the treated (ATT), rebalancing the compared groups at 6-monthly intervals on age, sex, birth-year, pregnancy status, treatment, relapses, disease duration, disability and disease course. The outcomes analysed were incidence of relapses, 12-month confirmed disability worsening and improvement. RESULTS: 23 236 eligible patients were diagnosed with RRMS or clinically isolated syndrome. Compared with glatiramer acetate (reference), several therapies showed a superior ATE in reducing relapses: natalizumab (HR=0.44, 95% CI=0.40 to 0.50), fingolimod (HR=0.60, 95% CI=0.54 to 0.66) and dimethyl fumarate (HR=0.78, 95% CI=0.66 to 0.92). Further, natalizumab (HR=0.43, 95% CI=0.32 to 0.56) showed a superior ATE in reducing disability worsening and in disability improvement (HR=1.32, 95% CI=1.08 to 1.60). The pairwise ATT comparisons also showed superior effects of natalizumab followed by fingolimod on relapses and disability. CONCLUSIONS: The effectiveness of natalizumab and fingolimod in active RRMS is superior to dimethyl fumarate, teriflunomide, glatiramer acetate and interferon beta. This study demonstrates the utility of MSM in emulating trials to compare clinical effectiveness among multiple interventions simultaneously.

Disability accrual in primary and secondary progressive multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND: Some studies comparing primary and secondary progressive multiple sclerosis (PPMS, SPMS) report similar ages at onset of the progressive phase and similar rates of subsequent disability accrual. Others report later onset and/or faster accrual in SPMS. Comparisons have been complicated by regional cohort effects, phenotypic differences in sex ratio and management and variable diagnostic criteria for SPMS. METHODS: We compared disability accrual in PPMS and operationally diagnosed SPMS in the international, clinic-based MSBase cohort. Inclusion required PPMS or SPMS with onset at age ≥18 years since 1995. We estimated Andersen-Gill hazard ratios for disability accrual on the Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS), adjusted for sex, age, baseline disability, EDSS score frequency and drug therapies, with centre and patient as random effects. We also estimated ages at onset of the progressive phase (Kaplan-Meier) and at EDSS milestones (Turnbull). Analyses were replicated with physician-diagnosed SPMS. RESULTS: Included patients comprised 1872 with PPMS (47% men; 50% with activity) and 2575 with SPMS (32% men; 40% with activity). Relative to PPMS, SPMS had older age at onset of the progressive phase (median 46.7 years (95% CI 46.2-47.3) vs 43.9 (43.3-44.4); p<0.001), greater baseline disability, slower disability accrual (HR 0.86 (0.78-0.94); p<0.001) and similar age at wheelchair dependence. CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrate later onset of the progressive phase and slower disability accrual in SPMS versus PPMS. This may balance greater baseline disability in SPMS, yielding convergent disability trajectories across phenotypes. The different rates of disability accrual should be considered before amalgamating PPMS and SPMS in clinical trials.

Comparative effectiveness in multiple sclerosis: A methodological comparison.

BACKGROUND: In the absence of evidence from randomised controlled trials, observational data can be used to emulate clinical trials and guide clinical decisions. Observational studies are, however, susceptible to confounding and bias. Among the used techniques to reduce indication bias are propensity score matching and marginal structural models. OBJECTIVE: To use the comparative effectiveness of fingolimod vs natalizumab to compare the results obtained with propensity score matching and marginal structural models. METHODS: Patients with clinically isolated syndrome or relapsing remitting MS who were treated with either fingolimod or natalizumab were identified in the MSBase registry. Patients were propensity score matched, and inverse probability of treatment weighted at six monthly intervals, using the following variables: age, sex, disability, MS duration, MS course, prior relapses, and prior therapies. Studied outcomes were cumulative hazard of relapse, disability accumulation, and disability improvement. RESULTS: 4608 patients (1659 natalizumab, 2949 fingolimod) fulfilled inclusion criteria, and were propensity score matched or repeatedly reweighed with marginal structural models. Natalizumab treatment was associated with a lower probability of relapse (PS matching: HR 0.67 [95% CI 0.62-0.80]; marginal structural model: 0.71 [0.62-0.80]), and higher probability of disability improvement (PS matching: 1.21 [1.02 -1.43]; marginal structural model 1.43 1.19 -1.72]). There was no evidence of a difference in the magnitude of effect between the two methods. CONCLUSIONS: The relative effectiveness of two therapies can be efficiently compared by either marginal structural models or propensity score matching when applied in clearly defined clinical contexts and in sufficiently powered cohorts.

Variability of the response to immunotherapy among subgroups of patients with multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: This study assessed the effect of patient characteristics on the response to disease-modifying therapy (DMT) in multiple sclerosis (MS). METHODS: We extracted data from 61,810 patients from 135 centers across 35 countries from the MSBase registry. The selection criteria were: clinically isolated syndrome or definite MS, follow-up ≥ 1 year, and Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) score ≥ 3, with ≥1 score recorded per year. Marginal structural models with interaction terms were used to compare the hazards of 12-month confirmed worsening and improvement of disability, and the incidence of relapses between treated and untreated patients stratified by their characteristics. RESULTS: Among 24,344 patients with relapsing MS, those on DMTs experienced 48% reduction in relapse incidence (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.52, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.45-0.60), 46% lower risk of disability worsening (HR = 0.54, 95% CI = 0.41-0.71), and 32% greater chance of disability improvement (HR = 1.32, 95% CI = 1.09-1.59). The effect of DMTs on EDSS worsening and improvement and the risk of relapses was attenuated with more severe disability. The magnitude of the effect of DMT on suppressing relapses declined with higher prior relapse rate and prior cerebral magnetic resonance imaging activity. We did not find any evidence for the effect of age on the effectiveness of DMT. After inclusion of 1985 participants with progressive MS, the effect of DMT on disability mostly depended on MS phenotype, whereas its effect on relapses was driven mainly by prior relapse activity. CONCLUSIONS: DMT is generally most effective among patients with lower disability and in relapsing MS phenotypes. There is no evidence of attenuation of the effect of DMT with age.

Oligoclonal bands: clinical utility and interpretation cues.

Oligoclonal immunoglobulin G (IgG) bands (OCBs) are a useful diagnostic tool to detect a central humoral response. In particular, cerebrospinal fluid (CSF)-restricted OCBs represent a hallmark of multiple sclerosis (MS), where they can be detected in > 90% of cases and support its diagnosis, although a specific causative agent inducing B cell activation has not yet been identified. The determination of intrathecal IgM, including IgM/lipid-specific IgM OCBs, on the other hand, seems to be of prognostic relevance and is associated with a more aggressive disease course. OCBs can also be present in other central nervous system (CNS) disorders, including antibody-mediated, inflammatory, infectious, and neurodegenerative conditions, as well as in both chronic and early disease stages, suggesting the occurrence of primary or concomitant immune-mediated processes. Finally, intrathecal humoral immune response can also occur, although rarely, in patients with peripheral neuropathies, particularly in those of inflammatory origin, as a possible consequence of blood-spinal nerve root barrier (BSNRB) damage. Isoelectric focusing (IEF) on agarose gels followed by immunoblotting is the technique recommended for OCB detection, analyzing paired undiluted CSF and serum samples. However, technical issues including blot, staining, and IEF reproducibility as well as operator-dependent pattern interpretations decrease reproducibility, causing misinterpretations of results, with significant diagnostic implications. These technical issues can lead to difficulties in distinguishing between negative results (type 1 pattern = absence of OCBs in serum and CSF and type 4 pattern = presence of identical OCBs in both serum and CSF) and results indicating intrathecal IgG synthesis (pattern 2 = presence of OCBs in CSF and type 3 = presence of OCBs in CSF and additional identical OCBs in both serum and CSF). Corrective measures and identification of specialized laboratories with expertise in the field are fundamental to applying this useful technique in clinical practice. In this context, recent research has focused on the automated assessment of CSF kappa free light Ig chains as a more sensitive, non-operator-dependent marker of intrathecal Ig synthesis. We herein review central and peripheral nervous system conditions associated with OCBs and discuss their relation with pathogenetic mechanisms.

Exposure to natalizumab throughout pregnancy: effectiveness and safety in an Italian cohort of women with multiple sclerosis.

OBJECTIVE: Assessing the risk of clinical and radiological reactivation during pregnancy and post partum in women with multiple sclerosis (MS) treated with natalizumab (NTZ) throughout pregnancy (LONG_EXP) compared with women interrupting treatment before (NO_EXP) and within >-30 days and ≤90 days from conception (SHORT_EXP), and describing newborns' outcomes. METHODS: Maternal clinical and radiological outcomes and obstetric and fetal outcomes were retrospectively collected and compared among groups (NO_EXP, SHORT_EXP, LONG_EXP). Predictors of clinical and radiological reactivation were investigated through univariable and multivariable analysis. RESULTS: 170 eligible pregnancies from 163 women referring to 29 Italian MS centres were included. Annualised relapse rate (ARR) was significantly lower in LONG_EXP (n=66, 0.02 (0.001-0.09)) compared with NO_EXP (n=31, 0.43 (0.21-0.75), p=0.002) and SHORT_EXP (n=73, 0.46 (0.30-0.66), p=0.0004) during pregnancy, and in LONG_EXP (0.12 (0.05-0.24)) compared with SHORT_EXP (0.30 (0.17-0.50), p=0.008) during post partum. Gadolinium-enhancing (Gd+) lesions were less frequent in LONG_EXP (n=6/50, 2.00%) compared with NO_EXP (n=9/21, 42.86%) and SHORT_EXP after delivery (n=17/49, 34.69%, p=0.010).Delaying NTZ resumption after delivery significantly increased the risk of relapses (OR=1.29 (95% CI 1.07 to 1.57), p=0.009) and Gd+ lesions (OR=1.49 (95% CI 1.17 to 1.89, p=0.001). Newborns' weight, length, head circumference and gestational age did not differ among groups after adjusting for confounders. Anaemia was tracked in 4/69 LONG_EXP newborns. Congenital anomaly rate was within the expected range for the untreated MS population. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings indicate that in women with MS treated with NTZ before conception, continuation of NTZ throughout pregnancy and its early resumption after delivery mitigate the risk of clinical and radiological reactivation. This approach has no major impact on newborns' outcomes.

Breakthrough SARS-CoV-2 infections in MS patients on disease-modifying therapies.

BACKGROUND: Patients with multiple sclerosis (pwMS) treated with anti-CD20 or fingolimod showed a reduced humoral response to SARS-CoV-2 vaccines. OBJECTIVE: In this study we aimed to monitor the risk of breakthrough SARS-CoV-2 infection in pwMS on different disease-modifying therapies (DMTs). METHODS: Data on the number of vaccinated patients and the number of patients with a breakthrough infection were retrospectively collected in 27 Italian MS centers. We estimated the rate of breakthrough infections and of infection requiring hospitalization per DMT. RESULTS: 19,641 vaccinated pwMS were included in the database. After a median follow-up of 8 months, we observed 137 breakthrough infections. Compared with other DMTs, the rate of breakthrough infections was significantly higher on ocrelizumab (0.57% vs 2.00%, risk ratio (RR) = 3.55, 95% CI = 2.74-4.58, p < 0.001) and fingolimod (0.58% vs 1.62%, RR = 2.65, 95% CI = 1.75-4.00, p < 0.001), while there were no significant differences in any other DMT group. In the ocrelizumab group the hospitalization rate was 16.7% versus 19.4% in the pre-vaccination era (RR = 0.86, p = 0.74) and it was 3.9% in all the other DMT groups versus 11.9% in the pre-vaccination period (RR = 0.33, p = 0.02). CONCLUSIONS: The risk of breakthrough SARS-CoV-2 infections is higher in patients treated with ocrelizumab and fingolimod, and the rate of severe infections was significantly reduced in all the DMTs excluding ocrelizumab.

Multiple Sclerosis Severity Score (MSSS) improves the accuracy of individualized prediction in MS.

BACKGROUND: The MSBase prediction model of treatment response leverages multiple demographic and clinical characteristics to estimate hazards of relapses, confirmed disability accumulation (CDA), and confirmed disability improvement (CDI). The model did not include Multiple Sclerosis Severity Score (MSSS), a disease duration-adjusted ranked score of disability. OBJECTIVE: To incorporate MSSS into the MSBase prediction model and compare model accuracy with and without MSSS. METHODS: The associations between MSSS and relapse, CDA, and CDI were evaluated with marginal proportional hazards models adjusted for three principal components representative of patients' demographic and clinical characteristics. The model fit with and without MSSS was assessed with penalized r2 and Harrell C. RESULTS: A total of 5866 MS patients were started on disease-modifying therapy during prospective follow-up (age 38.4 ± 10.6 years; 72% female; disease duration 8.5 ± 7.7 years). Including MSSS into the model improved the accuracy of individual prediction of relapses by 31%, of CDA by 23%, and of CDI by 24% (Harrell C) and increased the amount of variance explained for relapses by 49%, for CDI by 11%, and for CDA by 10% as compared with the original model. CONCLUSION: Addition of a single, readily available metric, MSSS, to the comprehensive MSBase prediction model considerably improved the individual accuracy of prognostics in MS.

Serum neurofilament light as biomarker of seizure-related neuronal injury in status epilepticus.

Biomarkers of neuronal damage in status epilepticus (SE) would be of great relevance for clinical and research purposes. In a retrospective cross-sectional study, serum neurofilament light chain (NfL) levels were measured in patients with SE (30 subjects), patients with drug-resistant epilepsy (30 subjects), and healthy controls (30 subjects). Serum NfL levels were higher in patients with SE (median = 26.15 pg/ml) compared to both epilepsy patients (median = 7.35 pg/ml) and healthy controls (median = 6.81 pg/ml; p < .001). In patients with SE, serum NfL levels showed a high correlation with cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) NfL (τ = .68, p < .001) as well as with CSF total tau (t-tau) levels (τ = .627, p < .001); they were higher in SE lasting >24 h (p = .013), in refractory/superrefractory SE (p = .004), and in patients who died within 30 days or who presented a worsening of clinical conditions (p = .001). Values of >28.8 pg/ml predicted 30-day clinical worsening or death (odds ratio [OR] = 10.83, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.96-59.83, p = .006) and SE refractoriness (OR = 9.33, 95% CI = 1.51-57.65, p = .016). In conclusion, serum NfL levels are increased in SE and correlate with SE treatment response, duration, and outcomes, therefore representing a promising biomarker of seizure-related neuronal damage.

Confirmed disability progression as a marker of permanent disability in multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: The prevention of disability over the long term is the main treatment goal in multiple sclerosis (MS); however, randomized clinical trials evaluate only short-term treatment effects on disability. This study aimed to define criteria for 6-month confirmed disability progression events of MS with a high probability of resulting in sustained long-term disability worsening. METHODS: In total, 14,802 6-month confirmed disability progression events were identified in 8741 patients from the global MSBase registry. For each 6-month confirmed progression event (13,321 in the development and 1481 in the validation cohort), a sustained progression score was calculated based on the demographic and clinical characteristics at the time of progression that were predictive of long-term disability worsening. The score was externally validated in the Cladribine Tablets Treating Multiple Sclerosis Orally (CLARITY) trial. RESULTS: The score was based on age, sex, MS phenotype, relapse activity, disability score and its change from baseline, number of affected functional system domains and worsening in six of the domains. In the internal validation cohort, a 61% lower chance of improvement was estimated with each unit increase in the score (hazard ratio 0.39, 95% confidence interval 0.29-0.52; discriminatory index 0.89). The proportions of progression events sustained at 5 years stratified by the score were 1: 72%; 2: 88%; 3: 94%; 4: 100%. The results of the CLARITY trial were confirmed for reduction of disability progression that was >88% likely to be sustained (events with score ˃1.5). CONCLUSIONS: Clinicodemographic characteristics of 6-month confirmed disability progression events identify those at high risk of sustained long-term disability. This knowledge will allow future trials to better assess the effect of therapy on long-term disability accrual.

Transition to secondary progression in relapsing-onset multiple sclerosis: Definitions and risk factors.

BACKGROUND: No uniform criteria for a sensitive identification of the transition from relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (MS) to secondary-progressive multiple sclerosis (SPMS) are available. OBJECTIVE: To compare risk factors of SPMS using two definitions: one based on the neurologist judgment (ND) and an objective data-driven algorithm (DDA). METHODS: Relapsing-onset MS patients (n = 19,318) were extracted from the Italian MS Registry. Risk factors for SPMS and for reaching irreversible Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) 6.0, after SP transition, were estimated using multivariable Cox regression models. RESULTS: SPMS identified by the DDA (n = 2343, 12.1%) were older, more disabled and with a faster progression to severe disability (p < 0.0001), than those identified by the ND (n = 3868, 20.0%). In both groups, the most consistent risk factors (p < 0.05) for SPMS were a multifocal onset, an age at onset >40 years, higher baseline EDSS score and a higher number of relapses; the most consistent protective factor was the disease-modifying therapy (DMT) exposure. DMT exposure during SP did not impact the risk of reaching irreversible EDSS 6.0. CONCLUSION: A DDA definition of SPMS identifies more aggressive progressive patients. DMT exposure reduces the risk of SPMS conversion, but it does not prevent the disability accumulation after the SP transition.

Prediction of on-treatment disability worsening in RRMS with the MAGNIMS score.

BACKGROUND: The magnetic resonance imaging in multiple sclerosis (MAGNIMS) score combines relapses and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) lesions to predict disability outcomes in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) treated with interferon-ß. OBJECTIVE: To validate the MAGNIMS score and extend to other disease-modifying therapies (DMTs). To examine the prognostic value of gadolinium contrast-enhancing (Gd+) lesions. METHODS: This RRMS MSBase cohort study (n = 2293) used a Cox model to examine the prognostic value of relapses, MRI activity and the MAGNIMS score for disability worsening during treatment with interferon-ß and three other DMTs. RESULTS: Three new T2 lesions (hazard ratio (HR) = 1.60, p = 0.028) or two relapses (HR = 2.24, p = 0.002) on interferon-ß (for 12 months) were predictive of disability worsening over 4 years. MAGNIMS score = 2 (1 relapse and ⩾3 T2 lesions or ⩾2 relapses) was associated with a greater risk of disability worsening on interferon-ß (HR = 2.0, p = 0.001). In pooled cohort of four DMTs, similar associations were seen (MAGNIMS score = 2: HR = 1.72, p = 0.001). Secondary analyses demonstrated that the addition of Gd+ to the MAGNIMS did not materially improve its prediction of disability worsening. CONCLUSION: We have validated the MAGNIMS score in RRMS and extended its application to three other DMTs: 1 relapse and ⩾3 T2 lesions or ⩾2 relapses predicted worsening of disability. Contrast-enhancing lesions did not substantially improve the prognostic score.

Determinants of therapeutic lag in multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND: A delayed onset of treatment effect, termed therapeutic lag, may influence the assessment of treatment response in some patient subgroups. OBJECTIVES: The objective of this study is to explore the associations of patient and disease characteristics with therapeutic lag on relapses and disability accumulation. METHODS: Data from MSBase, a multinational multiple sclerosis (MS) registry, and OFSEP, the French MS registry, were used. Patients diagnosed with MS, minimum 1 year of exposure to MS treatment and 3 years of pre-treatment follow-up, were included in the analysis. Studied outcomes were incidence of relapses and disability accumulation. Therapeutic lag was calculated using an objective, validated method in subgroups stratified by patient and disease characteristics. Therapeutic lag under specific circumstances was then estimated in subgroups defined by combinations of clinical and demographic determinants. RESULTS: High baseline disability scores, annualised relapse rate (ARR) ⩾ 1 and male sex were associated with longer therapeutic lag on disability progression in sufficiently populated groups: females with expanded disability status scale (EDSS) < 6 and ARR < 1 had mean lag of 26.6 weeks (95% CI = 18.2-34.9), males with EDSS < 6 and ARR < 1 31.0 weeks (95% CI = 25.3-36.8), females with EDSS < 6 and ARR ⩾ 1 44.8 weeks (95% CI = 24.5-65.1), and females with EDSS ⩾ 6 and ARR < 1 54.3 weeks (95% CI = 47.2-61.5). CONCLUSIONS: Pre-treatment EDSS and ARR are the most important determinants of therapeutic lag.

Disability outcomes of early cerebellar and brainstem symptoms in multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND: Cerebellar and brainstem symptoms are common in early stages of multiple sclerosis (MS) yet their prognostic values remain unclear. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to investigate long-term disability outcomes in patients with early cerebellar and brainstem symptoms. METHODS: This study used data from MSBase registry. Patients with early cerebellar/brainstem presentations were identified as those with cerebellar/brainstem relapse(s) or functional system score ⩾ 2 in the initial 2 years. Early pyramidal presentation was chosen as a comparator. Andersen-Gill models were used to compare cumulative hazards of (1) disability progression events and (2) relapses between patients with and without early cerebellar/brainstem symptoms. Mixed effect models were used to estimate the associations between early cerebellar/brainstem presentations and expanded disability status scale (EDSS) scores. RESULTS: The study cohort consisted of 10,513 eligible patients, including 2723 and 3915 patients with early cerebellar and brainstem symptoms, respectively. Early cerebellar presentation was associated with greater hazard of progression events (HR = 1.37, p < 0.001) and EDSS (ß = 0.16, p < 0.001). Patients with early brainstem symptoms had lower hazard of progression events (HR = 0.89, p = 0.01) and EDSS (ß = -0.06, p < 0.001). Neither presentation was associated with changes in relapse risk. CONCLUSION: Early cerebellar presentation is associated with unfavourable outcomes, while early brainstem presentation is associated with favourable prognosis. These presentations may be used as MS prognostic markers and guide therapeutic approach.

Antibiotic Use and Risk of Multiple Sclerosis: A Nested Case-Control Study in Emilia-Romagna Region, Italy.

INTRODUCTION: Known risk factors for multiple sclerosis (MS) include smoking, a low vitamin D status, obesity, and EBV, while the inflammatory feature of the disease strongly suggests the presence of additional infectious agents. The association between use of antibiotics and MS risk that could shed light on these factors is still undetermined. We aimed to evaluate the association between antibiotics and MS risk, in the Emilia-Romagna region (RER), Italy. METHODS: All adult patients with MS seen at any RER MS center (2015-2017) were eligible. For each of the 877 patients included, clinical information was collected and matched to 5 controls (RER residents) (n = 4,205) based on age, sex, place of residence, and index year. Information on antibiotic prescription was obtained through the linkage with the RER drug prescription database. RESULTS: Exposure to any antibiotic 3 years prior to the index year was associated with an increased MS risk (OR = 1.52; 95% CI = 1.29-1.79). Similar results were found for different classes. No dose-response effect was found. DISCUSSION/CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest an association between the use of antibiotics and MS risk in RER population. However, further epidemiological studies should be done with information on early life and lifestyle factors.

Defining the course of tumefactive multiple sclerosis: A large retrospective multicentre study.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Tumefactive multiple sclerosis (TuMS) (i.e., MS onset presenting with tumefactive demyelinating lesions [TDLs]) is a diagnostic and therapeutic challenge. We performed a multicentre retrospective study to describe the clinical characteristics and the prognostic factors of TuMS. METHODS: One hundred two TuMS patients were included in this retrospective study. Demographic, clinical, magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), laboratory data and treatment choices were collected. RESULTS: TuMS was found to affect women more than men (female:male: 2.4), with a young adulthood onset (median age: 29.5 years, range: 11-68 years, interquartile range [IQR]: 38 years). At onset, 52% of TuMS patients presented with the involvement of more than one functional system and 24.5% of them with multiple TDLs. TDLs most frequently presented with an infiltrative MRI pattern (38.7%). Cerebrospinal fluid immunoglobulin G oligoclonal bands were often demonstrated (76.6%). In 25.3% of the cases, more than one acute-phase treatment was administered, and almost one-half of the patients (46.6%) were treated with high-efficacy treatments. After a median follow-up of 2.3 years (range: 0.1-10.7 years, IQR: 3.4 years), the median Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) score was 1.5 (range: 0-7, IQR: 2). Independent risk factors for reaching an EDSS score ≥3 were a higher age at onset (odds ratio [OR]: 1.08, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.03-1.14, p < 0.01), a higher number of TDLs (OR: 1.67, 95% CI: 1.02-2.74, p < 0.05) and the presence of infiltrative TDLs (OR: 3.34, 95% CI: 1.18-9.5, p < 0.001) at baseline. CONCLUSIONS: The management of TuMS might be challenging because of its peculiar characteristics. Large prospective studies could help to define the clinical characteristics and the best treatment algorithms for people with TuMS.

Delay from treatment start to full effect of immunotherapies for multiple sclerosis.

In multiple sclerosis, treatment start or switch is prompted by evidence of disease activity. Whilst immunomodulatory therapies reduce disease activity, the time required to attain maximal effect is unclear. In this study we aimed to develop a method that allows identification of the time to manifest fully and clinically the effect of multiple sclerosis treatments ('therapeutic lag') on clinical disease activity represented by relapses and progression-of-disability events. Data from two multiple sclerosis registries, MSBase (multinational) and OFSEP (French), were used. Patients diagnosed with multiple sclerosis, minimum 1-year exposure to treatment, minimum 3-year pretreatment follow-up and yearly review were included in the analysis. For analysis of disability progression, all events in the subsequent 5-year period were included. Density curves, representing incidence of relapses and 6-month confirmed progression events, were separately constructed for each sufficiently represented therapy. Monte Carlo simulations were performed to identify the first local minimum of the first derivative after treatment start; this point represented the point of stabilization of treatment effect, after the maximum treatment effect was observed. The method was developed in a discovery cohort (MSBase), and externally validated in a separate, non-overlapping cohort (OFSEP). A merged MSBase-OFSEP cohort was used for all subsequent analyses. Annualized relapse rates were compared in the time before treatment start and after the stabilization of treatment effect following commencement of each therapy. We identified 11 180 eligible treatment epochs for analysis of relapses and 4088 treatment epochs for disability progression. External validation was performed in four therapies, with no significant difference in the bootstrapped mean differences in therapeutic lag duration between registries. The duration of therapeutic lag for relapses was calculated for 10 therapies and ranged between 12 and 30 weeks. The duration of therapeutic lag for disability progression was calculated for seven therapies and ranged between 30 and 70 weeks. Significant differences in the pre- versus post-treatment annualized relapse rate were present for all therapies apart from intramuscular interferon beta-1a. In conclusion we have developed, and externally validated, a method to objectively quantify the duration of therapeutic lag on relapses and disability progression in different therapies in patients more than 3 years from multiple sclerosis onset. Objectively defined periods of expected therapeutic lag allows insights into the evaluation of treatment response in randomized clinical trials and may guide clinical decision-making in patients who experience early on-treatment disease activity. This method will subsequently be applied in studies that evaluate the effect of patient and disease characteristics on therapeutic lag.

Early clinical markers of aggressive multiple sclerosis.

Patients with the 'aggressive' form of multiple sclerosis accrue disability at an accelerated rate, typically reaching Expanded Disability Status Score (EDSS) ≥ 6 within 10 years of symptom onset. Several clinicodemographic factors have been associated with aggressive multiple sclerosis, but less research has focused on clinical markers that are present in the first year of disease. The development of early predictive models of aggressive multiple sclerosis is essential to optimize treatment in this multiple sclerosis subtype. We evaluated whether patients who will develop aggressive multiple sclerosis can be identified based on early clinical markers. We then replicated this analysis in an independent cohort. Patient data were obtained from the MSBase observational study. Inclusion criteria were (i) first recorded disability score (EDSS) within 12 months of symptom onset; (ii) at least two recorded EDSS scores; and (iii) at least 10 years of observation time, based on time of last recorded EDSS score. Patients were classified as having 'aggressive multiple sclerosis' if all of the following criteria were met: (i) EDSS ≥ 6 reached within 10 years of symptom onset; (ii) EDSS ≥ 6 confirmed and sustained over ≥6 months; and (iii) EDSS ≥ 6 sustained until the end of follow-up. Clinical predictors included patient variables (sex, age at onset, baseline EDSS, disease duration at first visit) and recorded relapses in the first 12 months since disease onset (count, pyramidal signs, bowel-bladder symptoms, cerebellar signs, incomplete relapse recovery, steroid administration, hospitalization). Predictors were evaluated using Bayesian model averaging. Independent validation was performed using data from the Swedish Multiple Sclerosis Registry. Of the 2403 patients identified, 145 were classified as having aggressive multiple sclerosis (6%). Bayesian model averaging identified three statistical predictors: age > 35 at symptom onset, EDSS ≥ 3 in the first year, and the presence of pyramidal signs in the first year. This model significantly predicted aggressive multiple sclerosis [area under the curve (AUC) = 0.80, 95% confidence intervals (CIs): 0.75, 0.84, positive predictive value = 0.15, negative predictive value = 0.98]. The presence of all three signs was strongly predictive, with 32% of such patients meeting aggressive disease criteria. The absence of all three signs was associated with a 1.4% risk. Of the 556 eligible patients in the Swedish Multiple Sclerosis Registry cohort, 34 (6%) met criteria for aggressive multiple sclerosis. The combination of all three signs was also predictive in this cohort (AUC = 0.75, 95% CIs: 0.66, 0.84, positive predictive value = 0.15, negative predictive value = 0.97). Taken together, these findings suggest that older age at symptom onset, greater disability during the first year, and pyramidal signs in the first year are early indicators of aggressive multiple sclerosis.