Prevalence of menthol cigarette use among adults who smoke from the United States by census division and demographic subgroup, 2002-2020: findings from the International Tobacco Control (ITC) project.

BACKGROUND: Targeted marketing of menthol cigarettes in the US influences disparities in the prevalence of menthol smoking. There has been no analysis of sub-national data documenting differences in use across demographic subgroups. This study estimated trends in the prevalence of menthol use among adults who smoke in the nine US census divisions by sex, age, and race/ethnicity from 2002 to 2020. METHODS: Data from 12 waves of the US ITC Survey were used to estimate the prevalence of menthol cigarette use across census divisions and demographic subgroups using multilevel regression and post-stratification (n = 12,020). Multilevel logistic regression was used to predict the prevalence of menthol cigarette use in 72 cross-classified groups of adults who smoke defined by sex, age, race/ethnicity, and socioeconomic status; division-level effects were fit with a random intercept. Predicted prevalence was weighted by the total number of adults who smoke in each cross-classified group and aggregated to divisions within demographic subgroup. Estimates were validated against the Tobacco Use Supplement to the Current Population Survey (TUS-CPS). RESULTS: Overall modeled prevalence of menthol cigarette use was similar to TUS-CPS estimates. Prevalence among adults who smoke increased in each division from 2002 to 2020. By 2020, prevalence was highest in the Middle (46.3%) and South Atlantic (42.7%) and lowest in the Pacific (25.9%) and Mountain (24.2%) divisions. Prevalence was higher among adults aged 18-29 (vs. 50+) and females (vs. males). Prevalence among non-Hispanic Black people exceeded 80% in the Middle Atlantic, East North Central, West North Central, and South Atlantic in all years and varied most among Hispanic people in 2020 (Pacific: 26.5%, New England: 55.1%). CONCLUSIONS: Significant geographic variation in the prevalence of menthol cigarette use among adults who smoke suggests the proposed US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) menthol cigarette ban will exert differential public health benefits and challenges across geographic and demographic subgroups.

Widening the price gap: the effect of the Netherlands' 2020 tax increase on tobacco prices.

INTRODUCTION: The public health impact of a tobacco tax increase depends on the extent to which the industry passes the increase onto consumers, also known as tax-pass through. In 2020, the Netherlands announced tax increases aimed to increase the retail price by €1 per 20 factory-made cigarettes and €2.50 per 50 grams of roll-your-own tobacco. This study examines the pass-through rate after the tax increase, and whether this differed by type of tobacco and brand segment. METHODS: Self-reported prices of 117 tobacco brand varieties (cigarettes=72, roll-your-own=45) pre- and post-tax increase were extracted from the 2020 International Tobacco Control (ITC) Netherlands Surveys (n=2959 respondents). We calculated the tax pass-through rate per variant, examining differences between type of tobacco and brand segments. RESULTS: On average, cigarette prices increased by €1.12 (SD=0.49) (112% of €1) and roll-your-own prices by €2.53 (SD=0.60) (101% of €2.50). Evidence of differential shifting across segments was found, with evidence of overshifting in non-discount varieties. The average price of discount varieties increased with €0.20 less than non-discount varieties. Similarly, the net-of-tax price decreased in discount varieties (cigarettes=-€0.02; roll-your-own=-€0.05), but increased in non-discount varieties (cigarettes= +€0.14; roll-your-own= +€0.20). CONCLUSIONS: Despite the large tax increase, the industry increased prices in line or above the required level. Through differential shifting, the price gap between discount and non-discount varieties has widened, which may reduce the public health impact of the tax increase. Measures aimed at reducing price variability should be strengthened in taxation policy, such as the European Tobacco Tax Directive. IMPLICATIONS: We found that the industry used differential shifting after a significant tobacco tax increase in the Netherlands. Prices increased more than required in higher-priced products, but not in lower-priced products. This pattern was found both for factory-made cigarettes and roll-your-own tobacco. Through differential shifting, the industry undermines the potential public health impact of tobacco tax increases, by offering a relatively cheaper alternative, which discourages people to quit or reduce consumption. The revision of the European Tobacco Tax Directive (TTD) provides an opportunity to address the widening price gap - both between and within product segments - across the European Union.

Illicit cigarette purchasing after implementation of menthol cigarette bans in Canada: findings from the 2016-2018 ITC Four Country Smoking and Vaping Surveys.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the impact of menthol cigarette bans on use and purchasing of illicit cigarettes among menthol and non-menthol smokers in seven Canadian provinces. METHODS: Data from 1098 non-menthol smokers and 138 menthol smokers in Canada who completed the ITC Four Country Smoking and Vaping Survey in 2016 (pre-ban) and 2018 (post-ban). Brand validation analysis was conducted to (1) compare self-reported use of menthols versus actual use of menthols as regular brand, and verify self-reported purchasing of menthols among pre-ban menthol smokers at post-ban; and (2) assess pre-post ban changes in purchasing of illicit cigarettes from First Nations reserves among non-menthol smokers and menthol smokers. RESULTS: Among the subset of 138 pre-ban menthol smokers, 36 (19.5%) reported smoking menthols at post-ban. Brand validation analyses showed that 19 (9.0%) were actually using a non-menthol brand; of the 17 (10.5%) who were actually using a menthol brand, 13 (7.9%) bought a menthol brand at last purchase, and 4 (2.6%) bought a non-menthol brand. Among the full sample of smokers who purchased cigarettes from First Nations reserves at both pre-ban and post-ban, there was no change in purchasing of menthols (n=9 menthol smokers; 51.2% vs 51.2%, p=1.00), non-menthols (n=1024 non-menthol smokers; 9.1% vs 8.7%, p=0.69) or all cigarettes (menthol+non-menthol) (n=1086 smokers; 9.7% vs 9.2%, p=0.56). CONCLUSIONS: Actual rates of brand-verified menthol smoking were substantially lower than self-reported rates at post-ban. After Canada's menthol ban, there was no increase in illicit purchasing of menthol or non-menthol cigarettes from First Nations reserves.

Evaluation of the effectiveness of the Indian government's policies to strengthen health warning labels on smokeless tobacco products: findings from the 2010-2019 Tobacco Control Project India Surveys.

BACKGROUND: Smokeless tobacco (SLT) packaging in India had a single symbolic (a scorpion) health warning label (HWL) in 2009 covering 40% of the front surface. In 2011, it was replaced with four pictorial images. In 2016, HWLs were enlarged to 85% on the front and back. This study aimed to assess the effectiveness of the old (symbolic and smaller images) and larger HWLs. METHODS: Data were from the Tobacco Control Project India Survey and included respondents who used SLT in Wave 1 (2010-2011, n=5911), Wave 2 (2012-2013, n=5613) and Wave 3 (2018-2019, n=5636). Using a repeated-measures design, weighted logistic regression models assessed whether there were changes in seven HWL effectiveness measures within the domains of awareness, salience, cognitive and behavioural responses. A cohort design was employed to test whether HWL effectiveness in Waves 1 and 2 was associated with quitting SLT in Waves 2 and 3, respectively. RESULTS: The 2011 HWL revision did not result in any significant changes in HWL effectiveness. There was no significant change in HWL awareness and salience after larger HWLs were introduced in 2016, but respondents were more likely to consider SLT health risks (Wave 2=17.9%, Wave 3=33.6%, p<0.001) and quitting SLT (Wave 2=18.9%, Wave 3=36.5, p<0.001). There was no change in HWLs stopping SLT use (Wave 2=36.6%, Wave 3=35.2%, p=0.829); however, respondents were more likely to avoid looking at HWLs (Wave 2=10.1%, Wave 3=40.2%, p<0.001). Effectiveness of older, symbolic and smaller pictorial HWLs was not associated with quitting SLT. DISCUSSION: There was no significant change in HWL effectiveness following the revision from a symbolic to a pictorial image, but enlarging pictorial images resulted in some improved cognitive and behavioural effects. Results suggested wear-out of HWL salience and that the effectiveness of warnings depends on both their design and time since implementation.

Reasons for using e-cigarettes among adults who smoke: comparing the findings from the 2016 and 2020 ITC Korea Surveys.

INTRODUCTION: Dual use of e-cigarettes and cigarettes is a growing usage pattern in adults, but little is known about the motivations underlying this trend. We investigated the reasons for e-cigarette use among adults who smoke, considering variation in sociodemographic subgroups. METHODS: This repeated cross-sectional study analysed adults who smoked at least weekly and vaped at any frequency. Data were from the International Tobacco Control Korea Surveys conducted in 2016 (n=164) and 2020 (n=1088). Fourteen reasons for e-cigarette use were assessed in both waves. Subgroup analyses were performed by age, sex and educational level. RESULTS: The top reasons for e-cigarette use in 2020 were curiosity (62.8%), less harmful than smoking (45.4%) and taste (43.2%). Curiosity was the most cited across age, sex and education subgroups. Significant differences were observed in 2020 compared with 2016, with lower percentages in goal-oriented reasons: helping quit smoking (36.3% vs 48.9%; p=0.017), helping cut down smoking (35.3% vs 52.7%; p=0.001), less harmful to others (39.0% vs 54.6%; p=0.003) and more acceptable (31.6% vs 61.2%; p<0.001). By contrast, non-goal-oriented reasons showed higher percentages in 2020, such as curiosity (62.8% vs 27.9%; p<0.001), taste (43.2% vs 22.1%; p<0.001) and enjoyment (26.8% vs 8.6%; p<0.001). In 2020, a majority of adults who smoked and vaped (53.3%) reported no intention to quit or reduce smoking. CONCLUSIONS: E-cigarette use for curiosity and pleasure predominated among adults who smoked. The reasons for dual use in adults have shifted from goal-oriented to non-goal-oriented.

Impacts of revised smoke-free regulations under the 2020 Japan Health Promotion Act on cigarette smoking and heated tobacco product use in indoor public places and homes: findings from 2018 to 2021 International Tobacco Control (ITC) Japan Surveys.

BACKGROUND: In April 2020, Japan's revised Health Promotion Act (HPA) banned cigarette smoking and heated tobacco products (HTP) use in indoor public places but exempted small establishments and permitted smoking-designated/HTP-designated rooms. This pre-post study evaluated the effectiveness of the HPA. METHODS: Data were from waves 1 to 4 (2018-2021) of the International Tobacco Control Japan Surveys among a national cohort of adults who smoke cigarettes, use HTPs and do not use any tobacco products. The sample sizes in the respective surveys were 4615, 4222, 4387 and 4254. Multivariable logistic regression models employing generalised estimating equations estimated the prevalence of observed and self-reported indoor smoking/HTP use in key public venues (restaurants/cafés, bars/pubs and workplaces), smoke-free places, and homes, and smoke-free/HTP aerosol-free home policies (model 1). The models were additionally adjusted for waves 1-4 to estimate the impacts of the HPA (model 2). RESULTS: The implementation of the HPA significantly reduced observed indoor smoking in bars/pubs (model 1: 82.2% (pre) to 55.5% (post), model 2: p=0.04) but not in restaurants/cafés (model 1: 53.0%-24.9%, model 2: p=0.15) or workplaces (model 1: 35.3%-30.1%, model 2: p=0.62). Observed indoor HTP use was also common postimplementation (restaurants/cafés: 19.6%, bars/pubs: 53.9%, workplaces: 36.4%). The implementation of the HPA was associated with a significant increase in observed HTP use in smoke-free places (model 1: 26.3%-33.3%, model 2: p=0.001) and a suggestive increase in homes without HTP aerosol-free policies among adults who smoke (model 1: 64.0%-77.0%, model 2: p=0.09). CONCLUSIONS: The implementation of the HPA was limited in its effectiveness. Comprehensive regulations with no exemptions are needed in Japan.

Public support for tobacco endgame policies in South Korea: Findings from the 2020 International Tobacco Control Korea Survey.

BACKGROUND: Strong public support can increase the likelihood of adopting tobacco control policies. We assessed support for six commercial tobacco endgame policies in South Korea: limiting the nicotine in cigarettes, banning all additives in cigarettes, restricting the number of places where cigarettes are sold, and banning the manufacture and sales of cigarettes (unconditionally, with the provision of cessation support and with alternative tobacco products available). METHODS: Data were obtained from 4740 adults who completed the 2020 International Tobacco Control Korea Survey. Participants were categorised based on their nicotine use: (1) did not use any products, (2) vaped and/or used heated tobacco products (HTPs) but did not smoke cigarettes, (3) smoked cigarettes only and (4) smoked cigarettes and vaped and/or used HTPs. Attitudes towards the policies were classified as supportive, undecided or opposed. Weighted multinomial logistic regression models assessed support levels according to nicotine use. RESULTS: Support was highest for limiting the nicotine content in cigarettes (68.4%; 95% CI 64.6% to 72.3%) and restricting the number of retailers (68.1%; 95% CI 64.5% to 71.7%), and lowest for banning cigarette sales if alternative products are made available (45.0%; 95% CI 40.9% to 49.1%). People who did not use any products were most likely to support endgame policies, except for banning cigarette sales with alternatives available. The proportion of undecided participants exceeded 10% (range 13%-25%) for all policies. CONCLUSION: There is a strong public support for tobacco endgame policies in South Korea. Further research should prioritise the development of strategies to ensure the effective implementation of highly supported policies.

Examining the Effectiveness of the 2012 Canadian Graphic Warning Label Policy Change by Sex, Income, and Education.

INTRODUCTION: We examined the differential impact of the 2012 Canadian GWL policy changes on key indicators of warning label impact and quit intentions using national cohorts of Canadian and U.S. adults who smoke. AIMS AND METHODS: We used data from all waves of the International Tobacco Control surveys (2002-2020) in Canada and the United States. Our key measures were quit intentions and an index of warning label effectiveness (salience, cognitive and behavioral reactions). We estimated overall policy impact by comparing Canada (treatment group) with the United States (control group) using controlled interrupted time series (CITS) regression models, with interactions to examine whether policy impact varied by sex, education, and income. RESULTS: The CITS model showed a statistically significant increase in the warning label effectiveness in Canada post-policy, compared to the United States (ß = 0.84, 95% CI 0.35,1.33). Similarly, the odds of quit intentions were relatively higher among adults who smoked in Canada compared to the United States (OR = 1.89, 95% CI 1.51,2.36) post-policy. The three-way interaction model showed that these associations were greater among adults from low socioeconomic status (SES) groups than in high SES groups. CONCLUSIONS: The 2012 change in the Canadian GWL policy was associated with stronger cognitive and behavioral responses to GWLs and higher odds of quit intentions among adults who smoked in Canada when compared to the United States, specifically among individuals from low SES groups, suggesting a positive equity impact. Our findings affirm the need for countries to implement or enhance GWLs, in line with the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC). IMPLICATIONS: The evidence on the potential health equity benefit of GWL policies is mixed. To further understand the influence of GWL policies on tobacco use disparities, more systematic research using pre/post-policy designs with control groups is needed. Using a CITS model, we aimed to strengthen the available evidence on the causal influence of this tobacco control approach. Our findings show that the 2012 GWL policy change had a greater impact on adults who smoked from low SES groups than it did on adults who smoked from high SES groups, indicating a potentially positive equity impact and confirming the need for countries to implement or maximize the size of GWLs, as recommended by the WHO FCTC.

Cigarette Gifting Among Nonsmokers in China: Findings From the International Tobacco Control China Survey.

INTRODUCTION: Cigarette gifting is commonly practiced in China and has contributed to the social acceptability and high prevalence of cigarette smoking in the country. As a result, nonsmokers in China are particularly susceptible to smoking. While previous studies have examined cigarette gifting behaviors among smokers, little is known about cigarette gifting among nonsmokers. AIMS AND METHODS: This study aimed to examine the percentage and correlates of giving and receiving cigarettes as gifts among adult nonsmokers in China. We analyzed nonsmokers (N = 1813) aged ≥18 years using data from the International Tobacco Control China Wave 5 Survey. Descriptive statistics summarized the characteristics of those who gave and received cigarettes as gifts. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to identify factors associated with the two behaviors. RESULTS: Among nonsmokers, 9.9% reported giving cigarettes as gifts to family or friends in the last 6 months. A higher level of knowledge about smoking harms was associated with lower adjusted odds of gifting cigarettes. Nonsmokers aged 25-39 years, with middle income, positive attitude toward cigarette gifts, exposure to anti-smoking information, and exposure to smoking promotion, and those who reported receiving cigarettes as gifts from family or friends were more likely to give cigarettes as gifts. A total of 6.6% of nonsmokers reported receiving cigarettes as gifts in the last 6 months. High education, neutral or positive attitude toward cigarette gifts, exposure to anti-smoking information, exposure to smoking promotion, and having smoking friends were associated with receiving cigarettes as gifts. CONCLUSIONS: It is concerning that Chinese cultural norms that support cigarette gifting have extended to giving nonsmokers cigarettes as gifts. Effective anti-smoking messages are needed. Changing the norms around cigarette gifting and increasing knowledge about smoking harms should help reduce cigarette gifting among nonsmokers. IMPLICATIONS: Easy access to cigarettes received as gifts, along with the wide acceptance of smoking in China, places Chinese nonsmokers in a risky position. More educational campaigns targeting nonsmokers to proactively prevent them from smoking are called for. The ineffectiveness of existing anti-smoking information highlights the need for more effective anti-smoking messages. That attitude toward cigarette gifts is the strongest predictor of giving cigarettes as gifts suggests the need for interventions to reverse the positive attitude about cigarette gifting to decrease the popularity of this activity.

Do Social Norms for Cigarette Smoking and Nicotine Vaping Product Use Predict Trying Nicotine Vaping Products and Attempts to Quit Cigarette Smoking Amongst Adult Smokers? Findings From the 2016-2020 International Tobacco Control Four Country Smoking and Vaping Surveys.

INTRODUCTION: To examine whether perceived injunctive and descriptive social norms towards cigarette and nicotine vaping product (NVP) use predicted subsequent trying NVPs and attempts to quit cigarette smoking amongst current smokers and whether associations varied across countries. AIMS AND METHODS: Three waves of longitudinal cohort data from the International Tobacco Control Four Country Smoking and Vaping Survey were collected between 2016 and 2020 from 2290 adult smokers in Canada, Australia, England, and the United States who had never used NVPs at baseline (either wave 1 or wave 2) and followed up at the subsequent wave (wave 2 or wave 3, respectively) were analyzed using Generalized Estimating Equations. RESULTS: Of the injunctive and descriptive norm measures for smoking and NVP use, NVP initiation was only independently predicted by the injunctive interpersonal norm for NVP use, with perceived approval of NVP use by important others predicting higher odds of trying NVPs (AOR = 1.65, 95% CI = 1.20 to 2.27). This predictive effect was independent of baseline quit intention with no country variations found. By contrast, making cigarette smoking quit attempts were independently predicted by both injunctive and descriptive interpersonal norms with perceived disapproval of smoking by important others (AOR = 1.65, 95% CI = 1.38 to 1.99) and close friends using NVPs (AOR = 1.37, 95% CI = 1.04 to 1.79), both associated with higher odds of smoking quit attempts. CONCLUSIONS: Adult smokers who perceive NVP use as normative, either because such behavior is socially approved or common within their close social networks, appear more inclined to try NVPs or make smoking quit attempts than smokers who do not. IMPLICATIONS: Social norms can shape a person's behavior and result in behavior change. This study shows that initiation of NVP use behavior among smokers can be reliably predicted by their perception of whether NVP use is acceptable to those important to them within their close social networks. Similarly, any attempts to stop cigarette smoking can be predicted by their perception of how acceptable cigarette smoking is among those who are important to them and whether any of their close friends use NVPs. Changing social norms towards cigarette smoking and NVP use could therefore be incorporated into smoking cessation interventions to help smokers to quit and/or switch to NVP use.

Individual and Conjoint Factors Associated With Beliefs About the Harmfulness of Nicotine Replacement Therapies Relative to Combustible Cigarettes Among People Who Smoke: Findings From the 2020 ITC Four Country Smoking and Vaping Survey.

INTRODUCTION: This study examined individual and conjoint factors associated with beliefs about the harmfulness of nicotine replacement therapies (NRTs) relative to combustible cigarettes (CCs). AIMS AND METHODS: Data analyzed came from 8642 adults (≥18 years) who smoked daily/weekly and participated in the 2020 ITC Four Country Smoking and Vaping Survey in Australia (n = 1213), Canada (n = 2633), England (n = 3057), and United States (n = 1739). Respondents were asked: "Compared to smoking cigarettes, how harmful do you think nicotine replacement products are?" Responses were dichotomized into "much less" versus otherwise for analysis using multivariable logistic regression models, complemented by decision-tree analysis to identify conjoint factors. RESULTS: Percentages believing that NRTs are much less harmful than CCs were 29.7% (95% CI = 26.2% to 33.5%) in Australia, 27.4% (95% CI = 25.1% to 29.8%) in England, 26.4% (95% CI = 24.4% to 28.4%) in Canada, and 21.7% (95% CI = 19.2% to 24.3%) in the United States. Across all countries, believing nicotine is not at all/slightly harmful to health (aOR = 1.53-2.27), endorsing nicotine vaping products (NVPs) as less harmful than CCs (much less harmful: aOR = 7.24-14.27; somewhat less harmful: aOR = 1.97-3.23), and possessing higher knowledge of smoking harms (aOR = 1.23-1.88) were individual factors associated with increased odds of believing NRTs are much less harmful than CCs. With some country variations, these nicotine-related measures also interacted with each other and sociodemographic variables to serve as conjoint factors associated with the likelihood of accurate NRT relative harm belief. CONCLUSIONS: Many people who regularly smoke cigarettes are unaware that NRTs are much less harmful than cigarettes. Additionally, beliefs about NRTs relative harmfulness appear to be influenced by both individual and conjoint factors. IMPLICATIONS: This study demonstrates that despite past efforts to educate people who smoke about the harms of NRTs relative to CCs, misperceptions around the relative harmfulness of NRTs remain substantial. In all four studied countries, subgroups of people who smoke regularly who are misinformed about the relative harmfulness of NRTs, and who may be reluctant to use NRTs for smoking cessation can be reliably identified for corrective interventions based on their understanding of the harms related to nicotine, NVPs and smoking along with sociodemographic markers. The identified subgroup information can be used to prioritize and inform the development of effective interventions to specifically address the gaps in knowledge and understanding of the various subgroups identified. Our results suggest these may need to be tailored for each country.

Smoking Cessation Among Gender Minority Populations, Cis-women, and Cis-men: Findings From the International Tobacco Control Netherlands Survey.

INTRODUCTION: Little is known about smoking cessation among gender minority populations compared to cisgender individuals (whose gender matches their sex assigned at birth). We examined differences between smokers from gender minority populations, cis-women, and cis-men in the heaviness of smoking, quit intentions, use of cessation assistance, quit attempts (ever tried and number), and triggers for thinking about quitting. AIMS AND METHODS: We used cross-sectional data from the 2020 International Tobacco Control Netherlands Survey. Among smoking respondents, we distinguished (1) cis-women (female sex, identified as women, and having feminine gender roles; n = 670), (2) cis-men (male sex, identified as men, and having masculine gender roles; n = 897), and (3) gender minorities (individuals who were intersex, who identified as nonbinary, genderqueer, had a sex/gender identity not listed, whose gender roles were not feminine or masculine, or whose gender identity and/or roles were not congruent with sex assigned at birth; n = 220). RESULTS: Although gender minorities did not differ from cis-women and cis-men in the heaviness of smoking, plans to quit smoking, and quit attempts, they were significantly more likely to use cessation assistance (20% in the past 6 months) than cis-women (12%) and cis-men (9%). Gender minorities were also significantly more likely to report several triggers for thinking about quitting smoking, for example, quit advice from a doctor, an anti-smoking message/campaign, and the availability of a telephone helpline. CONCLUSION: Despite equal levels of quit attempts and heaviness of smoking, gender minority smokers make more use of smoking assistance, and respond stronger to triggers for thinking about quitting smoking. IMPLICATIONS: Smoking cessation counselors should be sensitive to the stressors that individuals from any minority population face, such as stigmatization, discrimination, and loneliness, and should educate their smoking clients on effective coping mechanisms to prevent relapse into smoking after they experience these stressors. Developing tailored smoking cessation programs or campaigns specifically for gender minority populations can also be useful. Based on the results of our subgroup analyses, programs or campaigns for younger gender minority smokers could focus on the availability of telephone helplines and on how friends and family think about their smoking behavior.

Trends in Individualized Affordability of Factory-Made Cigarettes: Findings of the 2008-2020 International Tobacco Control Netherlands Surveys.

INTRODUCTION: Cigarette affordability, the price of tobacco relative to consumer income, is a key determinant of tobacco consumption. AIMS AND METHODS: This study examined trends over 12 years in individualized factory-made cigarette affordability in the Netherlands, and whether these trends differed by sex, age, and education. Data from 10 waves (2008-2020) of the International Tobacco Control Netherlands Surveys were used to estimate individualized affordability, measured as the percentage of income required to buy 100 cigarette packs (Relative Income Price [RIP]), using self-reported prices and income. The higher the RIP, the less affordable cigarettes are. Generalized estimating equation regression models assessed trends in individualized affordability over time and by sex, age, and education. RESULTS: Affordability decreased significantly between 2008 and 2020, with RIP increasing from 1.89% (2008) to 2.64% (2020) (p ≤ .001), except for 2008-2010, no significant year-on-year changes in affordability were found. Lower affordability was found among subgroups who have a lower income level: Females (vs. males), 18-24 and 25-39-year-olds (vs. 55 years and over) and low or moderate-educated individuals (vs. highly educated). Interactions between wave and education (p = .007) were found, but not with sex (p = .653) or age (p = .295). A decreasing linear trend in affordability was found for moderately (p = .041) and high-educated (p = .025), but not for low-educated individuals (p = .149). CONCLUSIONS: Cigarettes in the Netherlands have become less affordable between 2008 and 2020, yet this was mostly because of the decrease in affordability between 2008 and 2010. There is a need for more significant increases in tax to further decrease affordability. IMPLICATIONS: Our findings suggest that cigarettes have become less affordable in the Netherlands between 2008 and 2020. But, this appears to be the result of a steep decrease in affordability between 2008 and 2010. Affordability was lower among groups who have on average lower incomes (females, young adults, and low- and moderate-educated individuals), and differences in trends across education levels could be explained by per capita income changes. Our individualized measure indicated lower affordability than published aggregate affordability estimations. Future tax increases should be large enough to result in a lower affordability.

Framework Convention on Tobacco Control 2030-A Program to Accelerate the Implementation of World Health Organization Framework Convention for Tobacco Control in Low- and Middle-Income Countries: A Mixed-Methods Evaluation.

BACKGROUND: Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC) 2030 Program (2017-2021) was launched to accelerate World Health Organization (WHO) FCTC implementation in 15 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). We evaluated the Program in six domains: Governance; Smoke-Free Policies; Taxation; Packaging and Health Warnings; Tobacco Advertising, Promotion, and Sponsorship (TAPS) bans; and International and Regional Cooperation. AIMS AND METHODS: Following a mixed-methods design, we surveyed (June-September 2020) FCTC focal persons in 14 of the 15 countries, to understand the Program's financial and technical inputs and progress made in each of the six domains. The data were coded in terms of inputs (financial = 1, technical = 1, or both = 2) and progress (none = 1, some = 2, partial = 3, or strong = 4) and a correlation was computed between the inputs and progress scores for each domain. We conducted semi-structured interviews with key stakeholders in five countries. We triangulated between the survey and interview findings. RESULTS: FCTC 2030 offered substantial financial and technical inputs, responsive to country needs, across all six domains. There was a high positive correlation between technical inputs and progress in five of the six domains, ranging from r = 0.61 for taxation (p < .05) to r = 0.91 and for smoke-free policies (p < .001). The interviews indicated that the Program provided timely and relevant evidence and created opportunities for influencing tobacco control debates. CONCLUSIONS: The FCTC 2030 Program might have led to variable, but significant progress in advancing FCTC implementation in the 15 countries. As expected, much of the progress was in augmenting existing structures and resources for FCTC implementation. The resulting advances are likely to lead to further progress in FCTC policy implementation. IMPLICATIONS: What this study adds: In many LMICs, WHO FCTC policies are not in place; and even when enshrined in law, they are poorly enforced. It is not clear how financial and technical assistance to high tobacco-burden LMICs can most effectively accelerate the implementation of WHO FCTC policies and offer value for money. Bespoke and responsive assistance, both financial and technical, to LMICs aimed at accelerating the implementation of WHO FCTC policies are likely to lead to progress in tobacco control.

Indicators of Tobacco Dependence Among Youth: Findings From Wave 1 (2013-2014) of the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health Study.

BACKGROUND: Prior work established a measure of tobacco dependence (TD) among adults that can be used to compare TD across different tobacco products. We extend this approach to develop a common, cross-product metric for TD among youth. METHODS: One thousand one hundred and forty-eight youth aged 12-17 who used a tobacco product in the past 30 days were identified from 13 651 youth respondents in Wave 1 of the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (PATH) Study. FINDINGS: Analyses confirmed a single primary latent construct underlying responses to TD indicators for all mutually exclusive tobacco product user groups. Differential Item Functioning analyses supported the use of 8 of 10 TD indicators for comparisons across groups. With TD levels anchored at 0.0 (standard deviation [SD] = 1.0) among cigarette only (n = 265) use group, mean TD scores were more than a full SD lower for e-cigarette only (n = 150) use group (mean = -1.09; SD = 0.64). Other single product use group (cigar, hookah, pipe, or smokeless; n = 262) on average had lower TD (mean = -0.60; SD = 0.84), and the group with the use of multiple tobacco products (n = 471) experienced similar levels of TD (mean = 0.14; SD = 0.78) as the cigarette only use group. Concurrent validity was established with product use frequency among all user groups. A subset of five TD items comprised a common metric permitting comparisons between youth and adults. CONCLUSION: The PATH Study Youth Wave 1 Interview provided psychometrically valid measures of TD that enable future regulatory investigations of TD across tobacco products and comparisons between youth and adult tobacco product use group. IMPLICATIONS: A measure of tobacco dependence (TD) has been established previously among adults to compare TD across tobacco products. This study established the validity of a similar, cross-product measure of TD among youth. Findings suggest a single latent TD construct underlying this measure, concurrent validity of the scale with product use frequency across different types of tobacco users, and a subset of common items that can be used to compare TD between youth and adults who use tobacco.

Optimising a product standard for banning menthol and other flavours in tobacco products.

In this paper, we highlight key issues that policymakers should consider when developing a product standard banning menthol and other flavours in tobacco products based on research evidence and experiences learnt from other countries. A flavour product standard may be optimised by (1) having a clear and comprehensive definition of flavour that includes a complete ban on additives that have flavour properties and/or evoke sensory/cooling effects (ie, menthol analogues and synthetic coolants that stimulate the cooling receptor of the brain) rather than only as a 'characterising flavour' and (2) applying the standard to all tobacco product categories as well as all components or parts of the tobacco product (ie, the tobacco, filter, wrapper or paper), including separate flavourings that can be added to the product.

Quasi-experimental evaluation of Kenya's pictorial health warnings versus Zambia's single text-only warning: findings from the International Tobacco Control (ITC) Project.

BACKGROUND: Population studies in mostly high-income countries have shown that pictorial health warnings (PHWs) are much more effective than text-only warnings. This is the first quasi-experimental evaluation of the introduction of PHWs in Africa, comparing the change from text-only to PHWs in Kenya to the unchanged text-only health warning in Zambia. METHODS: Data were from International Tobacco Control (ITC) Surveys in Kenya (n=1495), and Zambia (n=1628), cohort surveys of nationally representative samples of adult smokers in each country. The ITC Kenya Survey was conducted in 2012 and 2018 (2 years after the 2016 introduction of three PHWs). The ITC Zambia Survey was conducted in 2012 and 2014 with no change to the single text-only warning. Validated indicators of health warning effectiveness (HWIs) (salience: noticing, reading; cognitive reactions: thinking about health risks, thinking about quitting; and behavioural reactions: avoiding warnings; forgoing a cigarette because of the warnings), and a summary measure-the Labels Impact Index (LII)-measured changes in warning impact between the two countries. RESULTS: PHWs implemented in Kenya led to a significant increase in all HWIs and the LII, compared with the text-only warning in Zambia. The failure to implement PHWs in Zambia led to a substantial missed opportunity to increase warning effectiveness (eg, an estimated additional 168 392 smokers in Zambia would have noticed the warnings). CONCLUSIONS: The introduction of PHWs in Kenya substantially increased the effectiveness of warnings. These results provide strong empirical support for 34 African countries that still have text-only warnings, of which 31 are Parties of the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control and are thus obligated to implement PHWs.

Differential impact of the Canadian point-of-sale tobacco display bans on quit attempts and smoking cessation outcomes by sex, income and education: longitudinal findings from the ITC Canada Survey.

SIGNIFICANCE: This study examines the differential effects of Canadian point-of-sale (POS) tobacco display bans across provinces on quit attempts and smoking cessation, by sex, education and income. METHODS: We analysed survey data from five waves (waves 4-8) of the International Tobacco Control Canada Survey, a population-based, longitudinal survey, where provinces implemented display bans between 2004 and 2010. Primary outcomes were quit attempts and successful cessation. We used generalised estimating equation Poisson regression models to estimate associations between living in a province with or without a POS ban (with a 24-month threshold) and smoking outcomes. We tested whether these associations varied by sex, education and income by including interaction terms. RESULTS: Across survey waves, the percentage of participants in provinces with POS bans established for more than 24 months increased from 5.0% to 95.8%. There was no association between POS bans and quit attempts for provinces with bans in place for 0-24 months or more than 24 months, respectively (adjusted relative risk (aRR)=0.99, 95% CI: 0.89 to 1.10; 1.03, 95% CI: 0.88 to 1.20). However, we found a differential impact of POS bans on quit attempts by sex, whereby bans were more effective for women than men for bans of 0-24 months. Participants living in a province with a POS ban for at least 24 months had a higher chance of successful cessation (aRR=1.49; 95% CI: 1.08 to 2.05) compared with those in a province without a ban. We found no differences in the association between POS bans and quit attempts or cessation by education or income, and no differences by sex for cessation. CONCLUSION: POS bans are associated with increased smoking cessation overall and more quit attempts among women than men.

Support for nicotine reduction in cigarettes: findings from the 2016 and 2020 ITC Four Country Smoking and Vaping Surveys.

INTRODUCTION: The USA and New Zealand have sought to establish a product standard to set a maximum nicotine level for cigarettes to reduce their addictiveness. This study examined support for very low nicotine cigarettes (VLNCs) in Australia, Canada, England and the USA between 2016 and 2020. METHODS: Repeated cross-sectional data were analysed from participants who currently smoke, formerly smoked or vaped and/or currently vape in the 2016 (n=11 150) and/or 2020 (n=5432) International Tobacco Control (ITC) Four Country Smoking and Vaping Survey. Respondents were asked if they would support a law that reduces the amount of nicotine in cigarettes to make them less addictive. Adjusted and weighted logistic regression analyses estimated the prevalence and predictors of support, such as country, age, sex, education, income, race and smoking/vaping status for VLNCs (support vs oppose/do not know). RESULTS: A majority of respondents supported a VLNC law, with support highest in Canada (69%; 2016 and 2020 combined), followed by England (61%), Australia (60%) and the USA (58%). Overall, support decreased from 62% in 2016 to 59% in 2020 (p=0.004), which did not differ by country. Levels of support differed by smoking/vaping status, where those who exclusively smoked daily showed the lowest level of support (59%) and those who exclusively vaped non-daily had the highest level of support (72%). CONCLUSION: More than half of respondents in all four countries-including those who smoked daily-supported a hypothetical VLNC standard to render cigarettes less addictive. It is important to examine if support is sustained after policies are implemented.

Characterisation of vaping liquids used in vaping devices across four countries: results from an analysis of selected vaping liquids reported by users in the 2016 ITC Four Country Smoking and Vaping Survey.

OBJECTIVES: This study presents an analysis of vaping products (VPs) purchased in the USA, Canada, England and Australia and assesses whether differences in regulations were associated with differences in the chemical composition of the VPs. METHODS: April-September 2017, a total of 234 VP refill liquids and prefilled cartridges were purchased in convenience samples of retail locations in each country. Products were chosen from brands and styles most commonly reported by current VP users in the 2016 ITC Four Country Smoking and Vaping Survey. All products were tested for nicotine, tobacco-specific nitrosamines (TSNAs), minor tobacco alkaloids, organic acids and flavouring chemicals. RESULTS: Consistent with the laws in Canada and Australia at the time of product purchase, nicotine was not detected in any of the VPs (n=10 in Canada; n=15 in Australia). US liquids (n=54) had a mean nicotine concentration of 16.2 mg/mL, (range=0.0-58.6) and English liquids (n=166) had a mean concentration of 11.9 mg/mL ((range=0.0-31.2) F(3244)=12.32, p<0.001). About 5% of English samples exceeded the UK's 20 mg/mL nicotine limit. Substantial country differences were observed in levels ofTSNAs, with the USA being higher than elsewhere. Of all products tested, 18.8% contained at least one organic acid. Liquids purchased in England contained far more identifiable flavouring chemicals than those in the other countries. CONCLUSIONS: VP composition, particularly with respect to nicotine and flavouring, varies by country, likely reflecting both marketplace preferences and country-specific regulations. There are differences between nicotine levels claimed on the package and actual levels, particularly in England.