Reduced fire severity offers near-term buffer to climate-driven declines in conifer resilience across the western United States.

Increasing fire severity and warmer, drier postfire conditions are making forests in the western United States (West) vulnerable to ecological transformation. Yet, the relative importance of and interactions between these drivers of forest change remain unresolved, particularly over upcoming decades. Here, we assess how the interactive impacts of changing climate and wildfire activity influenced conifer regeneration after 334 wildfires, using a dataset of postfire conifer regeneration from 10,230 field plots. Our findings highlight declining regeneration capacity across the West over the past four decades for the eight dominant conifer species studied. Postfire regeneration is sensitive to high-severity fire, which limits seed availability, and postfire climate, which influences seedling establishment. In the near-term, projected differences in recruitment probability between low- and high-severity fire scenarios were larger than projected climate change impacts for most species, suggesting that reductions in fire severity, and resultant impacts on seed availability, could partially offset expected climate-driven declines in postfire regeneration. Across 40 to 42% of the study area, we project postfire conifer regeneration to be likely following low-severity but not high-severity fire under future climate scenarios (2031 to 2050). However, increasingly warm, dry climate conditions are projected to eventually outweigh the influence of fire severity and seed availability. The percent of the study area considered unlikely to experience conifer regeneration, regardless of fire severity, increased from 5% in 1981 to 2000 to 26 to 31% by mid-century, highlighting a limited time window over which management actions that reduce fire severity may effectively support postfire conifer regeneration.

Wildfire-Driven Forest Conversion in Western North American Landscapes.

Changing disturbance regimes and climate can overcome forest ecosystem resilience. Following high-severity fire, forest recovery may be compromised by lack of tree seed sources, warmer and drier postfire climate, or short-interval reburning. A potential outcome of the loss of resilience is the conversion of the prefire forest to a different forest type or nonforest vegetation. Conversion implies major, extensive, and enduring changes in dominant species, life forms, or functions, with impacts on ecosystem services. In the present article, we synthesize a growing body of evidence of fire-driven conversion and our understanding of its causes across western North America. We assess our capacity to predict conversion and highlight important uncertainties. Increasing forest vulnerability to changing fire activity and climate compels shifts in management approaches, and we propose key themes for applied research coproduced by scientists and managers to support decision-making in an era when the prefire forest may not return.

Ten years of vegetation assembly after a North American mega fire.

Altered fuels and climate change are transforming fire regimes in many of Earth's biomes. Postfire reassembly of vegetation--paramount to C storage and biodiversity conservation--frequently remains unpredictable and complicated by rapid global change. Using a unique data set of pre and long-term postfire data, combined with long-term data from nearby unburned areas, we examined 10 years of understory vegetation assembly after the 2002 Hayman Fire. This fire was the largest wildfire in recorded history in Colorado, USA. Resistance (initial postfire deviance from prefire condition) and resilience (return to prefire condition) declined with increasing fire severity. However, via both resistance and resilience, 'legacy' species of the prefire community constituted >75% of total plant cover within 3 years even in severely burned areas. Perseverance of legacy species, coupled with new colonizers, created a persistent increase in community species richness and cover over prefire levels. This was driven by a first-year increase (maintained over time) in forbs with short life spans; a 2-3-year delayed surge in long-lived forbs; and a consistent increase in graminoids through the 10th postfire year. Burning increased exotic plant invasion relative to prefire and unburned areas, but burned communities always were >89% native. This study informs debate in the literature regarding whether these increasingly large fires are 'ecological catastrophes.' Landscape-scale severe burning was catastrophic from a tree overstory perspective, but from an understory perspective, burning promoted rich and productive native understories, despite the entire 10-year postfire period receiving below-average precipitation.

Estimating retention benchmarks for salvage logging to protect biodiversity.

Forests are increasingly affected by natural disturbances. Subsequent salvage logging, a widespread management practice conducted predominantly to recover economic capital, produces further disturbance and impacts biodiversity worldwide. Hence, naturally disturbed forests are among the most threatened habitats in the world, with consequences for their associated biodiversity. However, there are no evidence-based benchmarks for the proportion of area of naturally disturbed forests to be excluded from salvage logging to conserve biodiversity. We apply a mixed rarefaction/extrapolation approach to a global multi-taxa dataset from disturbed forests, including birds, plants, insects and fungi, to close this gap. We find that 75 ± 7% (mean ± SD) of a naturally disturbed area of a forest needs to be left unlogged to maintain 90% richness of its unique species, whereas retaining 50% of a naturally disturbed forest unlogged maintains 73 ± 12% of its unique species richness. These values do not change with the time elapsed since disturbance but vary considerably among taxonomic groups.