Drivers of long-term invertebrate community stability in changing Swedish lakes.

Research on ecosystem stability has had a strong focus on local systems. However, environmental change often occurs slowly at broad spatial scales, which requires regional-level assessments of long-term stability. In this study, we assess the stability of macroinvertebrate communities across 105 lakes in the Swedish "lakescape." Using a hierarchical mixed-model approach, we first evaluate the environmental pressures affecting invertebrate communities in two ecoregions (north, south) using a 23 year time series (1995-2017) and then examine how a set of environmental and physical variables affect the stability of these communities. Results show that lake latitude, size, total phosphorus and alkalinity affect community composition in northern and southern lakes. We find that lake stability is affected by species richness and lake size in both ecoregions and alkalinity and total phosphorus in northern lakes. There is large heterogeneity in the patterns of community stability of individual lakes, but relationships between that stability and environmental drivers begin to emerge when the lakescape, composed of many discrete lakes, is the focal unit of study. The results of this study highlight that broad-scale comparisons in combination with long time series are essential to understand the effects of environmental change on the stability of lake communities in space and time.

A quantitative framework for assessing ecological resilience.

Quantitative approaches to measure and assess resilience are needed to bridge gaps between science, policy and management. In this paper, we revisit definitions of resilience and suggest a quantitative framework for assessing ecological resilience sensu Holling (1973). Ecological resilience as an emergent ecosystem phenomenon can be decomposed into complementary attributes (scales, adaptive capacity, thresholds and alternative regimes) that embrace the complexity inherent to ecosystems. Quantifying these attributes simultaneously provides opportunities to move from the assessment of specific resilience within an ecosystem towards a broader measurement of its general resilience. We provide a framework, based on testable hypotheses, which allows assessment of complementary attributes of ecological resilience. By implementing the framework in adaptive approaches to management, inference and modeling, key uncertainties can be reduced incrementally over time and learning about the general resilience of dynamic ecosystems maximized. Such improvements are needed because uncertainty about global environmental change impacts and their effects on resilience is high. Improved resilience assessments will ultimately facilitate an optimized use of limited resources for management.

Parallels of quantum superposition in ecological models: from counterintuitive patterns to eco-evolutionary interpretations of cryptic species.

BACKGROUND: Superposition, i.e. the ability of a particle (electron, photon) to occur in different states or positions simultaneously, is a hallmark in the subatomic world of quantum mechanics. Although counterintuitive at first sight, the quantum world has potential to inform macro-systems of people and nature. Using time series and spatial analysis of bird, phytoplankton and benthic invertebrate communities, this paper shows that superposition can occur analogously in redundancy analysis (RDA) frequently used by ecologists. RESULTS: We show that within individual ecosystems single species can be associated simultaneously with different orthogonal axes in RDA models, which suggests that they operate in more than one niche spaces. We discuss this counterintuitive result in relation to the statistical and mathematical features of RDA and the recognized limitations with current traditional species concepts based on vegetative morphology. CONCLUSION: We suggest that such "quantum weirdness" in the models is reconcilable with classical ecosystems logic when the focus of research shifts from morphological species to cryptic species that consist of genetically and ecologically differentiated subpopulations. We support our argument with theoretical discussions of eco-evolutionary interpretations that should become testable once suitable data are available.