RESUMO
BACKGROUND AND AIM: Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the virus responsible for the current pandemic, can have multi-organ impact. Recent studies show that liver injury could be a manifestation of the disease, and that liver disease could also be related to a worse prognosis. Our aim was to compare the characteristics of patients with severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) due to SARS-CoV-2 who required intubation versus stable hospitalized patients to identify the early biochemical predictive factors of a severe course of COVID-19 and subsequent requirement for intubation, specifically in Mexican. METHODS: This was an observational case-control study nested in a cohort study. Complete medical records of patients admitted for confirmed COVID-19 at a tertiary level center in Mexico City were reviewed. Clinical and biochemical data were collected, and the characteristics of patients who required invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV) (cases) were compared with stable hospitalized patients without ventilation (controls). RESULTS: We evaluated 166 patients with COVID-19 due to SARS-CoV-2 infection; 114 (68.7%) were men, the mean age was 50.6 ± 13.3 years, and 27 (16.3%) required IMV. The comparative analysis between cases and controls showed (respectively) significantly lower blood oxygen saturation (SpO2) (73.5 ± 12.0% vs. 83.0 ± 6.8%, P < 0.0001) and elevated alanine aminotransferase (ALT) (128 (14-1123) IU/L vs. 33 (8-453) IU/L, P = 0.003), aspartate aminotransferase (AST) (214 (17-1247) vs. 44 (12-498) IU/L, P = 0.001), lactic dehydrogenase (LDH) (764.6 ± 401.9 IU/L vs. 461.0 ± 185.6 IU/L, P = 0.001), and D-dimer (3463 (524-34,227) ng/mL vs. 829 (152-41,923) ng/mL, P = 0.003) concentrations. Patients in the cases group were older (58.6 ± 12.7 years vs. 49.1 ± 12.8 years, P=0.001). Multivariate analysis showed that important factors at admission predicting the requirement for IMV during hospitalization for COVID-19 were AST ≥250 IU/L (odds ratio (OR) = 64.8, 95% confidence interval (CI) 7.5-560.3, P < 0.0001) and D-dimer ≥ 3500 ng/mL (OR = 4.1, 95% CI 1.2-13.7, P=0.02). CONCLUSIONS: Our study confirms the importance of monitoring liver enzymes in hospitalized patients with COVID-19; seriously ill patients have significantly elevated AST and D-dimer concentrations, which have prognostic implications in the SARS-CoV-2 disease course.
RESUMO
AIM: Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) ranges from mild clinical phenotypes to life-threatening conditions like severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS). It has been suggested that early liver injury in these patients could be a risk factor for poor outcome. We aimed to identify early biochemical predictive factors related to severe disease development with intensive care requirements in patients with COVID-19. METHODS: Data from COVID-19 patients were collected at admission time to our hospital. Differential biochemical factors were identified between seriously ill patients requiring intensive care unit (ICU) admission (ICU patients) versus stable patients without the need for ICU admission (non-ICU patients). Multiple linear regression was applied, then a predictive model of severity called Age-AST-D dimer (AAD) was constructed (n = 166) and validated (n = 170). RESULTS: Derivation cohort: from 166 patients included, there were 27 (16.3%) ICU patients that showed higher levels of liver injury markers (P < 0.01) compared with non-ICU patients: alanine aminotrasnferase (ALT) 225.4 ± 341.2 vs. 41.3 ± 41.1, aspartate aminotransferase (AST) 325.3 ± 382.4 vs. 52.8 ± 47.1, lactic dehydrogenase (LDH) 764.6 ± 401.9 vs. 461.0 ± 185.6, D-dimer (DD) 7765 ± 9109 vs. 1871 ± 4146, and age 58.6 ± 12.7 vs. 49.1 ± 12.8. With these finding, a model called Age-AST-DD (AAD), with a cut-point of <2.75 (sensitivity = 0.797 and specificity = 0.391, c - statistic = 0.74; 95%IC: 0.62-0.86, P < 0.001), to predict the risk of need admission to ICU (OR = 5.8; 95% CI: 2.2-15.4, P = 0.001), was constructed. Validation cohort: in 170 different patients, the AAD model < 2.75 (c - statistic = 0.80 (95% CI: 0.70-0.91, P < 0.001) adequately predicted the risk (OR = 8.8, 95% CI: 3.4-22.6, P < 0.001) to be admitted in the ICU (27 patients, 15.95%). CONCLUSIONS: The elevation of AST (a possible marker of early liver injury) along with DD and age efficiently predict early (at admission time) probability of ICU admission during the clinical course of COVID-19. The AAD model can improve the comprehensive management of COVID-19 patients, and it could be useful as a triage tool to early classify patients with a high risk of developing a severe clinical course of the disease.