Floods and cause-specific mortality in the UK: a nested case-control study.

BACKGROUND: Floods are the most frequent weather-related disaster, causing significant health impacts worldwide. Limited studies have examined the long-term consequences of flooding exposure. METHODS: Flood data were retrieved from the Dartmouth Flood Observatory and linked with health data from 499,487 UK Biobank participants. To calculate the annual cumulative flooding exposure, we multiplied the duration and severity of each flood event and then summed these values for each year. We conducted a nested case-control analysis to evaluate the long-term effect of flooding exposure on all-cause and cause-specific mortality. Each case was matched with eight controls. Flooding exposure was modelled using a distributed lag non-linear model to capture its nonlinear and lagged effects. RESULTS: The risk of all-cause mortality increased by 6.7% (odds ratio (OR): 1.067, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.063-1.071) for every unit increase in flood index after confounders had been controlled for. The mortality risk from neurological and mental diseases was negligible in the current year, but strongest in the lag years 3 and 4. By contrast, the risk of mortality from suicide was the strongest in the current year (OR: 1.018, 95% CI: 1.008-1.028), and attenuated to lag year 5. Participants with higher levels of education and household income had a higher estimated risk of death from most causes whereas the risk of suicide-related mortality was higher among participants who were obese, had lower household income, engaged in less physical activity, were non-moderate alcohol consumers, and those living in more deprived areas. CONCLUSIONS: Long-term exposure to floods is associated with an increased risk of mortality. The health consequences of flooding exposure would vary across different periods after the event, with different profiles of vulnerable populations identified for different causes of death. These findings contribute to a better understanding of the long-term impacts of flooding exposure.

Sleep-disordered breathing was associated with lower health-related quality of life and cognitive function in a cross-sectional study of older adults.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: The clinical significance of sleep-disordered breathing (SDB) in older age is uncertain. This study determined the prevalence and associations of SDB with mood, daytime sleepiness, quality of life (QOL) and cognition in a relatively healthy older Australian cohort. METHODS: A cross-sectional analysis was conducted from the Study of Neurocognitive Outcomes, Radiological and retinal Effects of Aspirin in Sleep Apnoea. Participants completed an unattended limited channel sleep study to measure the oxygen desaturation index (ODI) to define mild (ODI 5-15) and moderate/severe (ODI ≥ 15) SDB, the Centre for Epidemiological Studies Scale, the Epworth Sleepiness Scale, the 12-item Short-Form for QOL and neuropsychological tests. RESULTS: Of the 1399 participants (mean age 74.0 years), 36% (273 of 753) of men and 25% (164 of 646) of women had moderate/severe SDB. SDB was associated with lower physical health-related QOL (mild SDB: beta coefficient [ß] -2.5, 95% CI -3.6 to -1.3, p < 0.001; moderate/severe SDB: ß -1.8, 95% CI -3.0 to -0.6, p = 0.005) and with lower global composite cognition (mild SDB: ß -0.1, 95% CI -0.2 to 0.0, p = 0.022; moderate/severe SDB: ß -0.1, 95% CI -0.2 to 0.0, p = 0.032) compared to no SDB. SDB was not associated with daytime sleepiness nor depression. CONCLUSION: SDB was associated with lower physical health-related quality of life and cognitive function. Given the high prevalence of SDB in older age, assessing QOL and cognition may better delineate subgroups requiring further management, and provide useful treatment target measures for this age group.

The Association of Weight Loss, Weight Status, and Abdominal Obesity with All-Cause Mortality in Older Adults.

OBJECTIVES: The objectives of this study were to examine whether weight loss, weight status (based on body mass index [BMI] categories), and abdominal obesity (based on waist circumference [WC]) were associated with a 17-year mortality risk in community-dwelling older adults. METHODS: Participants were 2,017 community-dwelling adults aged 65 years or above in the longitudinal Enquête de Santé Psychologique-Risques, Incidence et Traitement study. Self-reported weight loss was collected at baseline during face-to-face interviews. Bodyweight (kg), height (m), and WC (cm) were independently measured at the baseline. BMI was categorized as follows: underweight (BMI <18.5 kg/m2), normal weight (18.5-24.9 kg/m2), overweight (25-29.9 kg/m2), and obese (≥30 kg/m2). Abdominal obesity was defined by a WC of ≥102 cm in men and ≥88 cm in women. Adjusted Cox proportional hazards models were used to examine associations of weight loss, weight status, and abdominal obesity with all-cause mortality. RESULTS: Over 17 years of follow-up (median 15.5 years), 812 participants died. Abdominal obesity compared to nonabdominal obesity was associated with a 49% increased mortality risk (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.22-1.83). However, being overweight (but not obese) was associated with a 20% decreased risk (95% CI: 0.66-0.97) compared to a normal BMI. Gender did not affect these associations. In the whole cohort, self-reported weight loss at baseline was not associated with an increased mortality risk after adjusting for health and lifestyle factors. However, in men, a baseline self-reported recent weight loss of >3 kg was associated with a 52% increase in mortality risk (95% CI: 1.05-2.18) in a fully adjusted model. CONCLUSION: In community-dwelling adults aged ≥65 years, abdominal obesity was strongly associated with increased mortality risk. Being overweight appeared, however, to be protective against mortality. Modest self-reported weight loss was not associated with all-cause mortality in community-dwelling older adults after adjusting for health and lifestyle factors. However, men reporting recent weight loss of more than 3 kg may be at increased risk. The findings of this study support the use of WC, rather than BMI, as a predictor of mortality risk in older adults.

Nursing perspectives on reducing sedentary behaviour in sub-acute hospital settings: A mixed methods study.

AIM AND OBJECTIVES: To determine the factors influencing nurses' decisions and capacity to reduce sedentary behaviour in hospital inpatients in sub-acute hospital settings. BACKGROUND: Sedentary behaviour in hospital inpatients is a complex issue that can be resistant to resolution. There is little research investigating factors influencing nurses' promotion of reduced levels of sedentary behaviour in sub-acute hospital settings. DESIGN: An explanatory sequential design was employed, comprising quantitative and qualitative phases. METHODS: An online survey was conducted with a convenience sample of 138 nurses from five Australian states. Logistic regression modelling identified demographic and behavioural characteristics of nurses who often encouraged patients to reduce their sedentary behaviour. In-depth interviews were conducted with 11 ward nurses and nurse managers, with the content subjected to thematic analysis. STROBE and GRAMMS checklists were employed. RESULTS: Nurses recognised their role in promoting reduced sedentary behaviour but faced a range of personal and organisational barriers in achieving this outcome for patients. Few nurses were aware of national physical activity and sedentary behaviour guidelines. Five themes emerged from interviews (nursing role, care challenges, expectations of advocates, teamwork and improving the experience). Overall, many nurses experienced a lack of agency in promoting reduced sedentary behaviour and cognitive dissonance in feeling unable to undertake this role. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this study are significant in confirming that reducing sedentary behaviour in hospital inpatients is influenced by a range of complex and multi-level factors. There is a fundamental need for organisational and clinical leadership in building a culture and climate in which staff feel empowered to promote reduced sedentary behaviour in their patients. RELEVANCE TO CLINICAL PRACTICE: The results of this study highlight the importance of taking action to reduce sedentary behaviour in sub-acute hospital settings. A co-design approach to developing interventions in local health services is warranted.

Impact of age at type 2 diabetes mellitus diagnosis on mortality and vascular complications: systematic review and meta-analyses.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Few studies examine the association between age at diagnosis and subsequent complications from type 2 diabetes. This paper aims to summarise the risk of mortality, macrovascular complications and microvascular complications associated with age at diagnosis of type 2 diabetes. METHODS: Data were sourced from MEDLINE and All EBM (Evidence Based Medicine) databases from inception to July 2018. Observational studies, investigating the effect of age at diabetes diagnosis on macrovascular and microvascular diabetes complications in adults with type 2 diabetes were selected according to pre-specified criteria. Two investigators independently extracted data and evaluated all studies. If data were not reported in a comparable format, data were obtained from authors, presented as minimally adjusted ORs (and 95% CIs) per 1 year increase in age at diabetes diagnosis, adjusted for current age for each outcome of interest. The study protocol was recorded with PROSPERO International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (CRD42016043593). RESULTS: Data from 26 observational studies comprising 1,325,493 individuals from 30 countries were included. Random-effects meta-analyses with inverse variance weighting were used to obtain the pooled ORs. Age at diabetes diagnosis was inversely associated with risk of all-cause mortality and macrovascular and microvascular disease (all p < 0.001). Each 1 year increase in age at diabetes diagnosis was associated with a 4%, 3% and 5% decreased risk of all-cause mortality, macrovascular disease and microvascular disease, respectively, adjusted for current age. The effects were consistent for the individual components of the composite outcomes (all p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Younger, rather than older, age at diabetes diagnosis was associated with higher risk of mortality and vascular disease. Early and sustained interventions to delay type 2 diabetes onset and improve blood glucose levels and cardiovascular risk profiles of those already diagnosed are essential to reduce morbidity and mortality. Graphical abstract.

Dispositional Optimism and All-Cause Mortality in Older Adults: A Cohort Study.

OBJECTIVE: Optimism is modifiable and may be associated with healthy aging. We aim to investigate whether dispositional optimism is associated with all-cause mortality in adults 70 years and older. METHODS: Between 2010 and 2014, older adults free of serious cardiovascular disease and dementia were recruited through primary care physicians and enrolled in the Aspirin Reducing Events in the Elderly (ASPREE) clinical trial. Australian ASPREE participants were invited to participate in the ASPREE Longitudinal Study of Older Persons (ALSOP) that was running in parallel to ASPREE. Optimism was assessed at baseline using the Life Orientation Test-Revised. The association between optimism, divided into quartiles, and all-cause mortality was assessed using Cox proportional hazards models. RESULTS: A total of 11,701 participants (mean [standard deviation] age = 75.1 [4.24] years; 46.6% men) returned the ALSOP Social questionnaire and completed the Life Orientation Test-Revised. During a median follow-up of 4.7 years, 469 deaths occurred. The fully adjusted model was not significant (hazard ratio = 0.78, 95% confidence interval = 0.58-1.06). There was evidence that age was an effect modifier of the association between optimism and longevity. Higher optimism was associated with lower mortality risk in the oldest individuals only (77+ years; hazard ratio = 0.61, 95% confidence interval = 0.39-0.96). CONCLUSIONS: We observed no independent relationship between optimism and all-cause mortality in the total sample, although optimism seemed to be associated with lower risk among the oldest old (adults 77 years and older).

Metformin and health outcomes: An umbrella review of systematic reviews with meta-analyses.

BACKGROUND: The objective was to capture the breadth of outcomes that have been associated with metformin use and to systematically assess the quality, strength and credibility of these associations using the umbrella review methodology. METHODS: Four major databases were searched until 31 May 2020. Meta-analyses of observational studies and meta-analyses of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) (including active and placebo control arms) were included. RESULTS: From 175 eligible publications, we identified 427 different meta-analyses, including 167 meta-analyses of observational studies, 147 meta-analyses of RCTs for metformin vs placebo/no treatment and 113 meta-analyses of RCTs for metformin vs active medications. There was no association classified as convincing or highly suggestive from meta-analyses of observational studies, but some suggestive/weak associations of metformin use with a lower mortality risk of CVD and cancer. In meta-analyses of RCTs, metformin was associated with a lower incidence of diabetes in people with prediabetes or no diabetes at baseline; lower ovarian hyperstimulation syndrome incidence (in women in controlled ovarian stimulation); higher success for clinical pregnancy rate in poly-cystic ovary syndrome (PCOS); and significant reduction in body mass index in people with type 1 diabetes mellitus, in women who have obesity/overweight with PCOS and in obese/overweight women. Of 175 publications, 166 scored as low or critically low quality per AMSTAR 2 criteria. CONCLUSIONS: Observational evidence on metformin seems largely unreliable. Randomized evidence shows benefits for preventing diabetes and in some gynaecological and obstetrical settings. However, almost all meta-analyses are of low or critically low quality according to AMSTAR 2 criteria.

Trends in glycaemic control and drug use in males and females with type 2 diabetes: Results of the Australian National Diabetes Audit from 2013 to 2019.

AIM: To investigate temporal changes in glycaemic control and the use of antihyperglycaemic therapies in females and males with type 2 diabetes from 2013 to 2019. METHODS: Data from adult patients with type 2 diabetes (n = 11 930; 44.9% females, mean [SD] age of 62.9 [12.9] years) were analysed from the 2013 to 2019 biennial cross-sectional Australian National Diabetes Audit. RESULTS: Mean HbA1c remained similar throughout the years examined and between the sexes (7.8%-8.3%, 62-67 mmol/mol; P > .05). The number of antihyperglycaemic agents used by both sexes increased from 2013 to 2019 (P < .001), with more agents used by males (P = .014). From 2013 to 2019, there were increasing proportions of both sexes using dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors (females: 11.7%-25.7%, P = .045; males: 11.6%-29.5%, P = .036) and glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (females: 5.9%-15.3%; males: 4.9%-11.1%; P = .043 for both). Sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 inhibitors were not available in 2013; however, their use increased substantially from 2015 to 2019 in both females (4.9%-26.3%, P = .013) and males (4.7%-32.2%, P = .019). CONCLUSIONS: From 2013 to 2019, mean HbA1c levels remained unchanged despite a concurrent increase in the number of antihyperglycaemic medications used. Overall, there was a trend towards preferencing newer agents with some differences in treatment regimens relating to sex and renal function.

The association of weight change and all-cause mortality in older adults: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVE: there may be age-related differences in the impact of weight change on health. This study systematically reviewed the evidence on the relationship between weight change and all-cause mortality in adults aged 65 years and older. METHODS: MEDLINE, EMBASE and CINAHL were searched from inception to 11 June 2020, PROSPERO CRD 42019142268. We included observational studies reporting on the association between weight change and all-cause mortality in older community-dwelling adults. A random-effects meta-analysis was performed to calculate pooled hazard ratios and scored based on the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality guidelines. RESULTS: a total of 30 studies, including 1,219,279 participants with 69,255 deaths, demonstrated that weight loss was associated with a 59% increase in mortality risk (hazard ratio (HR): 1.59; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.45-1.74; P < 0.001). Twenty-seven studies that reported outcomes for weight gain (1,210,116 participants with 65,481 deaths) indicated that weight gain was associated with a 10% increase in all-cause mortality (HR: 1.10; 95%CI: 1.02, 1.17; P = 0.01). Four studies investigated weight fluctuation (2,283 events among 6,901 participants), which was associated with a 63% increased mortality risk (HR: 1.66; 95%CI: 1.28, 2.15). No evidence of publication bias was observed (all P > 0.05). CONCLUSION: for community-dwelling older adults, weight changes (weight loss, gain or weight fluctuation) are associated with an increased risk of all-cause mortality risk relative to stable weight. Further research is needed to determine whether these associations vary depending upon initial weight, and whether or not the weight loss/gain was intentional.

Health-related quality of life and all-cause mortality among older healthy individuals in Australia and the United States: a prospective cohort study.

PURPOSE: Previous research has demonstrated that lower health-related quality of life (HRQoL) is associated with higher morbidity and mortality, especially in-patient groups. The association of HRQoL with all-cause mortality in community samples requires further investigation. This study aimed to examine whether HRQoL predicts all-cause mortality in older healthy community-dwelling people from Australia and the United States (U.S.) enrolled in the Aspirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly (ASPREE) trial. We also explored whether this association varies by gender or country. METHOD: A prospective cohort of 19,106 individuals aged 65-98 years, who were without a dementia diagnosis or a known major life-limiting disease, and completed the 12-item short-form-HRQoL at recruitment (2010-2014). They were followed until June 2017. Cox proportional-hazard models were used to determine the association between the physical (PCS) and mental component scores (MCS) of HRQoL and all-cause mortality, adjusting for sociodemographic factors, health-related behaviours and clinical measures. Hazards ratios were estimated for every 10-unit increase in PCS or MCS. RESULTS: There were 1052 deaths over a median 4.7-years (interquartile range 3.6-5.7) of follow-up, with 11.9 events per 1000 person-years. Higher PCS was associated with lower all-cause mortality (HR 0.83, 95% CI 0.77, 0.89) in the entire sample, while higher MCS was associated with lower mortality among U.S. participants only (HR 0.78, 95% CI 0.63, 0.95). Gender differences in the association of either PCS or MCS with mortality were not observed. CONCLUSION: Our large study provides evidence that HRQoL is inversely associated with all-cause mortality among initially healthy older people.

The clinical educator's guide to fostering learner motivation: AMEE Guide No. 137.

Motivation theory and research remain underused by health professions educators. Some educators say it can seem too abstract. To address this, we applied health care language to learner motivation theories. Using a familiar metaphor, we examined the indications, mechanism of action, administration, and monitoring of learner motivation interventions. Similar to the treatment monographs in medicine compendia, we summarized each motivation intervention in the form of a monograph. The purpose of this guide is for health professions educators to develop an understanding of when (i.e. indication) and how (i.e. mechanism of action) learner motivation interventions work. With this information, they can then access ready-to-implement strategies (i.e. administration) to increase their learner interest and assess the effects of these interventions (i.e. monitoring).

The association between neighbourhood walkability and after-school physical activity in Australian schoolchildren.

INTRODUCTION: Physical inactivity is a risk factor for many noncommunicable diseases. As reported by the World Health Organisation, 81% of children worldwide are physically inactive. Environmental factors, such as neighbourhood walkability, can shape people's physical activity (PA) behaviour. This study explored the association between neighbourhood walkability and after-school PA among Australian schoolchildren. METHODS: The Department for Education and Child Development (DECD) distributed the survey to 189 schools across South Australia to assess the health and well-being of schoolchildren aged between 8 and 14 years. Neighbourhood was defined as an area corresponding to a four digit postcode, and its walkability was measured using Walk Score® . The association between neighbourhood walkability and after-school PA was analysed using multinomial logistic regression adjusted for age, gender, SEIFA score, number of days of TV watching, number of times of eating junk food, neighbourhood safety and children's weight status. RESULTS: Children residing in highly walkable areas (walker's paradise) compared to car-dependent areas had higher odds (OR(95%CI)) of engaging in after-school PA three (1.216 (1.029, 1.436), P = .021), four (1.287 (1.064, 1.557), P = .009) and five times a week (1.230 (1.030, 1.133), P = .022) compared to children never participating in PA. CONCLUSION: Living in highly walkable areas (walker's paradise), compared to living in car-dependent areas was associated with higher levels of after-school PA. So what? Creating walkable neighbourhoods with greater access to amenities, services and public transportation may help increase after-school PA among schoolchildren.

Gender differences in barriers to participation in after-school physical activities and related factors in Australian schoolchildren: A cross-sectional study.

INTRODUCTION: This study investigated the gender differences in reported barriers to participation in after-school physical activity (PA) and related health and socio-behavioural factors in Australian schoolchildren. METHODS: 5001 students aged 10 to 16 years completed the health and well-being survey in 2014 indicating that they would like to participate in after-school PA. Negative binomial regression models, stratified by gender, tested the relationship of age, reported health, junk food, participation in leisure PA, TV watching, weight status and socio-economic index for area score (related factors) with the total number of barriers. RESULTS: Girls were more likely to report a greater number of barriers to participation in after-school PA than boys (P < .05). Older age was associated with a higher number of barriers in girls (B(95% CI) = 1.061 (1.032, 1.090)) but not in boys. In both boys and girls, being overweight (boys: very overweight (1.367 (1.081, 1.730)); girls: slightly overweight (1.186 (1.100, 1.278)) or very overweight (1.414 (1.197, 1.667))), compared to students who reported "being about the right weight," was associated with a greater number of barriers. Schoolchildren who reported less than excellent health status perceived a greater number of barriers to after-school PA (girls: good (1.141 (1.060, 1.228)), fair (1.189 (1.070, 1.321)) and poor health (1.329 (1.093, 1.614)); boys: good health (1.166 (1.0728, 1.267))). CONCLUSIONS: There are gender differences in barriers to participation in after-school PA; these should be taken into account when developing programs to increase schoolchildren's after-school PA. SO WHAT: The prevalence of physical inactivity in Australian adolescents is staggering. We observed that girls reported a greater number of barriers to participation in after-school PA than boys; and being overweight and reporting poorer overall health were associated with a greater number of barriers. Affordable, gender- and age-specific after-school PA programs suitable for schoolchildren of all body shapes and sizes and all abilities are needed.

Quality of life and mortality in the general population: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Quality of life (QoL) is multi-dimensional concept of an individual' general well-being status in relation to their value, environment, cultural and social context in which they live. This study aimed to quantitatively synthesise available evidence on the association between QoL and mortality in the general population. METHODS: An electronic search was conducted using three bibliographic databases, MEDLINE, EMBASE and PsycINFO. Inclusion criteria were studies that assessed QoL using standardized tools and examined mortality risk in a non-patient population. Qualitative data synthesis and meta-analyses using a random-effects model were performed. RESULTS: Of 4184 articles identified, 47 were eligible for inclusion, involving approximately 1,200,000 participants. Studies were highly heterogeneous in terms of QoL measures, population characteristics and data analysis. In total, 43 studies (91.5%) reported that better QoL was associated with lower mortality risk. The results of four meta-analyses indicated that higher health-related QoL (HRQoL) is associated with lower mortality risk, which was consistent for overall HRQoL (HR 0.633, 95% CI: 0.514 to 0.780), physical function (HR 0.987, 95% CI: 0.982 to 0.992), physical component score (OR 0.950, 95% CI: 0.935 to 0.965), and mental component score (OR 0.980, 95% CI: 0.969 to 0.992). CONCLUSION: These findings provide evidence that better QoL/HRQoL was associated with lower mortality risk. The utility of these measures in predicting mortality risk indicates that they should be considered further as potential screening tools in general clinical practice, beyond the traditional objective measures such as body mass index and the results of laboratory tests.

The association between sociodemographic characteristics and dementia in patients with atrial fibrillation.

OBJECTIVES: Association between socio-demographic factors and dementia risk is studied in general but not for atrial fibrillation (AF) patients. METHODS: We studied AF patients ≥ 45 years in Sweden 1998-2012 (n = 537,513) using the Total Population Register for socio-demographic factors, the Swedish Cause of Death Register, and the National Patient Register (NPR) for incident dementia. Cox regression with hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) was used for the association between exposure and outcome, adjusting for age and comorbidities. RESULTS: Totally 30,332 patients (5.6%) were diagnosed with dementia during the follow-up (mean 5.4 years). Of these, 14,097 were men (4.9%) and 16,235 were women (6.5%). Lower educational levels (reference: highest level) were associated with increased dementia, HRs (95% CI) for basic school for men 1.23 (1.18-1.29) and women 1.36 (1.30-1.42), and middle-level school for men 1.17 (1.11-1.22) and women 1.28 (1.22-1.34). Divorced men and women (reference: married) showed increased risk of dementia, HR 1.07 (1.01-1.13) and 1.12 (1.06-1.18), respectively, while widowed men showed lower risk, HR 0.84 (0.80-0.88). High deprivation neighborhood socio-economic status (NSES; reference: medium level) was associated with increased dementia in men, HR 1.11 (1.05-1.17), and low deprivation neighborhood socio-economic status (NSES) with increased dementia in men and women, HR 1.12 (1.06-1.18) and 1.18 (1.12-1.24), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Some results were expected, i.e. association between lower educational level and dementia. The higher risk of dementia in low deprivation NSES-areas could be due to a higher awareness about dementia, and subsequent earlier diagnosis and treatment of dementia.

Trends in incidence and case fatality of acute myocardial infarction, angina and coronary revascularisation in people with and without type 2 diabetes in Scotland between 2006 and 2015.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: The aim of the study was to examine trends in the incidence and case fatality of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) and in hospital admissions for angina and coronary revascularisation procedures in people with type 2 diabetes and in people without diabetes in Scotland between 2006 and 2015. METHODS: In this retrospective cohort study, AMI, angina and revascularisation event data were obtained for adults from hospital admissions and death records linked to a population-based diabetes register. Incidence by diabetes status was estimated using negative binomial models with adjustment or stratification by age, sex, deprivation and calendar year. Logistic regression was used to estimate AMI case fatality by diabetes status. RESULTS: There were 129,926 incident AMI events, 41,263 angina admissions and 69,875 coronary revascularisation procedures carried out during 34.9 million person-years of follow-up. The adjusted incidence of AMI, angina and revascularisation procedures declined by 2.0% (95% CI 1.73%, 2.26%), 9.62% (95% CI 9.22%, 10.01%) and 0.35% (95% CI -0.09%, 0.79%) per year, respectively. The rate of decline did not differ materially by diabetes status. RRs of AMI for type 2 diabetes were 1.86 (95% CI 1.74, 1.98) for men and 2.32 (95% CI 2.15, 2.51) for women. Of the 77,211 people admitted to hospital with a first AMI, 7842 (10.2%) died within 30 days of admission. Case fatality was higher in people with type 2 diabetes than in people without diabetes and declined in both groups by 7.93% (95% CI 7.03%, 8.82%) per year. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: The incidence of AMI, angina, revascularisation and AMI case fatality has declined over time, but the increased risk associated with type 2 diabetes has remained approximately constant.

Sex differences in the association between socioeconomic status and diabetes prevalence and incidence in China: cross-sectional and prospective studies of 0.5 million adults.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: China has undergone rapid socioeconomic transition accompanied by lifestyle changes that are expected to have a profound impact on the health of its population. However, there is limited evidence from large nationwide studies about the relevance of socioeconomic status (SES) to risk of diabetes. We describe the associations of two key measures of SES with prevalent and incident diabetes in Chinese men and women. METHODS: The China Kadoorie Biobank study included 0.5 million adults aged 30-79 years recruited from ten diverse areas in China during 2004-2008. SES was assessed using the highest educational level attained and annual household income. Prevalent diabetes was identified from self-report and plasma glucose measurements. Incident diabetes was identified from linkage to disease and death registries and national health insurance claim databases. We estimated adjusted ORs and HRs for prevalent and incident diabetes associated with SES using logistic and Cox regression models, respectively. RESULTS: At baseline, 30,066 (5.9%) participants had previously diagnosed (3.1%) or screen-detected (2.8%) diabetes among 510,219 participants included for cross-sectional analyses. There were 480,153 people without prevalent diabetes at baseline, of whom 9544 (2.0%) had new-onset diabetes during follow-up (median 7 years). Adjusted ORs (95% CIs) for prevalent diabetes, comparing highest vs lowest educational level, were 1.21 (1.09, 1.35) in men and 0.69 (0.63, 0.76) in women; for incident diabetes, the corresponding HRs were 1.27 (1.07, 1.51) and 0.80 (0.67, 0.95), respectively. For household income, the adjusted ORs for prevalent diabetes, comparing highest vs lowest categories, were 1.45 (1.34, 1.56) in men and 1.26 (1.19, 1.34) in women; for incident diabetes, the HRs were 1.36 (1.19, 1.55) and 1.06 (0.95, 1.17), respectively. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Among Chinese adults, the associations between education and diabetes prevalence and incidence differed qualitatively between men and women, whereas higher household income was positively associated with diabetes prevalence and incidence in both sexes, with a stronger relationship in men than in women.

End-Stage Kidney Diseases in Immigrant Groups: A Nationwide Cohort Study in Sweden.

BACKGROUND: Our aim was to study the association between the country of birth and incident end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) in several immigrant groups in Sweden, using individuals born in Sweden or with Swedish-born parents as referents. METHODS: A cohort study of first- and second-generation immigrants residing in Sweden between January 1, 1998 and December 31, 2012 was performed. Outcomes were defined as having at least one registered diagnosis of ESKD in the National Patient Register. The incidence of ESKD in different immigrant groups was used in the Cox regression models to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs. All models were stratified by sex and adjusted for age, geographical residence, educational level, marital status, and neighbourhood socioeconomic status. RESULTS: Compared to their referents, higher incidence rates and HRs of ESKD (HR; 95% CI) were observed in general among foreign-born men (1.10; 1.04-1.16) and women (1.12; 1.04-1.21) but not among second-generation immigrants (persons born in Sweden with foreign-born parents). A particularly high -incidence was noted among men and women from -East-European countries, as well as from non-European regions. A lower incidence of ESKD was noted among men from Finland. CONCLUSIONS: We observed substantial differences in incidence of ESKD between immigrant groups and the Swedish-born population, which may be clinically relevant when monitoring preventive measures in patient subgroups with a higher risk of deteriorating kidney disease, and suggest higher attention to hypertension and diabetes control in immigrants. Mechanisms attributable to the migration process or ethnic differences may lead to an increased risk of ESKD.

Statins and Multiple Noncardiovascular Outcomes: Umbrella Review of Meta-analyses of Observational Studies and Randomized Controlled Trials.

Background: Many effects of statins on non-cardiovascular disease (non-CVD) outcomes have been reported. Purpose: To evaluate the quantity, validity, and credibility of evidence regarding associations between statins and non-CVD outcomes and the effects of statins on these outcomes. Data Sources: MEDLINE and EMBASE (English terms only, inception to 28 May 2018). Study Selection: Meta-analyses (published in English) of observational studies and of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) that examined non-CVD outcomes of statin intake. Data Extraction: Two investigators extracted data from meta-analyses and individual studies. Credibility assessments based on summary effect sizes from a random-effects model, between-study heterogeneity, 95% prediction interval, small-study effect, excess significance, and credibility ceilings were devised to classify evidence. Data Synthesis: This review explored 278 unique non-CVD outcomes from 112 meta-analyses of observational studies and 144 meta-analyses of RCTs. For observational studies, no convincing (class I) evidence, 2 highly suggestive (class II) associations (decreased cancer mortality in patients with cancer and decreased exacerbation in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease), 21 suggestive (class III) associations, and 42 weak (class IV) associations were identified. One outcome from the RCTs (decreased all-cause mortality in patients with chronic kidney disease) attained a sufficient amount of evidence with no hints of bias. For adverse events, observational studies showed suggestive evidence that statins increase the risk for diabetes and myopathy. Among the RCTs, no statistically significant effects were found on myopathy, myalgia, or rhabdomyolysis. Limitations: Studies with relevant data and outcomes not included in the meta-analyses may have been missed. Credibility assessments relied on several assumptions and arbitrary thresholds. Conclusion: The absence of convincing evidence of an association between statins and non-CVD outcomes supports leaving the current recommendations unchanged. Primary Funding Source: None.

The effect of physical activity on mortality and cardiovascular disease in 130 000 people from 17 high-income, middle-income, and low-income countries: the PURE study.

BACKGROUND: Physical activity has a protective effect against cardiovascular disease (CVD) in high-income countries, where physical activity is mainly recreational, but it is not known if this is also observed in lower-income countries, where physical activity is mainly non-recreational. We examined whether different amounts and types of physical activity are associated with lower mortality and CVD in countries at different economic levels. METHODS: In this prospective cohort study, we recruited participants from 17 countries (Canada, Sweden, United Arab Emirates, Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Poland, Turkey, Malaysia, South Africa, China, Colombia, Iran, Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, and Zimbabwe). Within each country, urban and rural areas in and around selected cities and towns were identified to reflect the geographical diversity. Within these communities, we invited individuals aged between 35 and 70 years who intended to live at their current address for at least another 4 years. Total physical activity was assessed using the International Physical Activity Questionnaire (IPQA). Participants with pre-existing CVD were excluded from the analyses. Mortality and CVD were recorded during a mean of 6·9 years of follow-up. Primary clinical outcomes during follow-up were mortality plus major CVD (CVD mortality, incident myocardial infarction, stroke, or heart failure), either as a composite or separately. The effects of physical activity on mortality and CVD were adjusted for sociodemographic factors and other risk factors taking into account household, community, and country clustering. FINDINGS: Between Jan 1, 2003, and Dec 31, 2010, 168 916 participants were enrolled, of whom 141 945 completed the IPAQ. Analyses were limited to the 130 843 participants without pre-existing CVD. Compared with low physical activity (<600 metabolic equivalents [MET] × minutes per week or <150 minutes per week of moderate intensity physical activity), moderate (600-3000 MET × minutes or 150-750 minutes per week) and high physical activity (>3000 MET × minutes or >750 minutes per week) were associated with graded reduction in mortality (hazard ratio 0·80, 95% CI 0·74-0·87 and 0·65, 0·60-0·71; p<0·0001 for trend), and major CVD (0·86, 0·78-0·93; p<0·001 for trend). Higher physical activity was associated with lower risk of CVD and mortality in high-income, middle-income, and low-income countries. The adjusted population attributable fraction for not meeting the physical activity guidelines was 8·0% for mortality and 4·6% for major CVD, and for not meeting high physical activity was 13·0% for mortality and 9·5% for major CVD. Both recreational and non-recreational physical activity were associated with benefits. INTERPRETATION: Higher recreational and non-recreational physical activity was associated with a lower risk of mortality and CVD events in individuals from low-income, middle-income, and high-income countries. Increasing physical activity is a simple, widely applicable, low cost global strategy that could reduce deaths and CVD in middle age. FUNDING: Population Health Research Institute, the Canadian Institutes of Health Research, Heart and Stroke Foundation of Ontario, Ontario SPOR Support Unit, Ontario Ministry of Health and Long-Term Care, AstraZeneca, Sanofi-Aventis, Boehringer Ingelheim, Servier, GSK, Novartis, King Pharma, and national and local organisations in participating countries that are listed at the end of the Article.