A clinical calculator to predict disease outcomes in women with triple-negative breast cancer.

PURPOSE: Triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) is the most aggressive subtype of breast cancer, characterized by substantial risks of early disease recurrence and mortality. We constructed and validated clinical calculators for predicting recurrence-free survival (RFS) and overall survival (OS) for TNBC. METHODS: Data from 605 women with centrally confirmed TNBC who underwent primary breast cancer surgery at Mayo Clinic during 1985-2012 were used to train risk models. Variables included age, menopausal status, tumor size, nodal status, Nottingham grade, surgery type, adjuvant radiation therapy, adjuvant chemotherapy, Ki67, stromal tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes (sTIL) score, and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR). Final models were internally validated for calibration and discrimination using ten-fold cross-validation and compared with their base-model counterparts which include only tumor size and nodal status. Independent external validation was performed using data from 478 patients diagnosed with stage II/III invasive TNBC during 1986-1992 in the British Columbia Breast Cancer Outcomes Unit database. RESULTS: Final RFS and OS models were well calibrated and associated with C-indices of 0.72 and 0.73, as compared with 0.64 and 0.62 of the base models (p < 0.001). In external validation, the discriminant ability of the final models was comparable to the base models (C-index: 0.59-0.61). The RFS model demonstrated greater accuracy than the base model both overall and within patient subgroups, but the advantages of the OS model were less profound. CONCLUSIONS: This TNBC clinical calculator can be used to predict patient outcomes and may aid physician's communication with TNBC patients regarding their long-term disease outlook and planning treatment strategies.

Impact of histopathology, tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes, and adjuvant chemotherapy on prognosis of triple-negative breast cancer.

BACKGROUND: Given its high recurrence risk, guidelines recommend systemic therapy for most patients with early-stage triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC). While some clinicopathologic factors and tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes (TILs) are known to be prognostic in patients receiving chemotherapy, their prognostic implications in systemically untreated patients remain unknown. METHODS: From a cohort of 9982 women with surgically treated non-metastatic breast cancer, all patients with clinically reported ER-negative/borderline (≤10%) disease were selected for central assessment of ER/PR/HER2, histopathology, Ki-67, and TILs. The impact of these parameters on invasive disease-free survival (IDFS) and overall survival (OS) was assessed using Cox proportional hazards models. RESULTS: Six hundred five patients met the criteria for TNBC (ER/PR < 1% and HER2 negative). Most were T1-2 (95%), N0-1 (86%), grade 3 (88%), and had a Ki-67 >15% (75%). Histologically, 70% were invasive carcinoma of no special type, 16% medullary, 8% metaplastic, and 6% apocrine. The median stromal TIL content was 20%. Four hundred twenty-three (70%) patients received adjuvant chemotherapy. Median OS follow-up was 10.6 years. On multivariate analysis, only higher nodal stage, lower TILs, and the absence of adjuvant chemotherapy were associated with worse IDFS and OS. Among systemically untreated patients (n = 182), the 5-year IDFS was 69.9% (95% CI 60.7-80.5) [T1a: 82.5% (95% CI 62.8-100), T1b: 67.5% (95% CI 51.9-87.8) and T1c: 67.3% (95% CI 54.9-82.6)], compared to 77.8% (95% CI 68.3-83.6) for systemically treated T1N0. Nodal stage and TILs remained strongly associated with outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: In early-stage TNBC, nodal involvement, TILs, and receipt of adjuvant chemotherapy were independently associated with IDFS and OS. In systemically untreated TNBC, TILs remained prognostic and the risk of recurrence or death was substantial, even for T1N0 disease.

Evaluation of CYP2D6 enzyme activity using a 13C-dextromethorphan breath test in women receiving adjuvant tamoxifen.

BACKGROUND: In tamoxifen-treated patients, breast cancer recurrence differs according to CYP2D6 genotype and endoxifen steady-state concentrations (Endx Css). The ¹³C-dextromethorphan breath test (DM-BT), labeled with ¹³C at the O-CH3 moiety, measures CYP2D6 enzyme activity. We sought to examine the ability of the DM-BT to identify known CYP2D6 genotypic poor metabolizers and examine the correlation between DM-BT and Endx Css. METHODS: DM-BT and tamoxifen pharmacokinetics were obtained at baseline, 3, and 6 months following tamoxifen initiation. Potent CYP2D6 inhibitors were prohibited. The correlation between baseline DM-BT with CYP2D6 genotype and Endx Css was determined. The association between baseline DM-BT (where values ≤0.9 is an indicator of poor in vivo CYP2D6 metabolism) and Endx Css (using values≤11.2 known to be associated with poorer recurrence free survival) was explored. RESULTS: A total of 91 patients were enrolled and 77 were eligible. CYP2D6 genotype was positively correlated with baseline, 3, and 6 months DM-BT (r ranging from 0.457-0. 60; P<0.001). Both CYP2D6 genotype (r=0.47, 0.56, P<0.0001), and baseline DM-BT (r=0.60, 0.54, P<0.001) were associated with 3 and 6 months Endx Css, respectively. Seven (78%) of nine patients with low (≤11.2 nmol/l) 3 month Endx Css also had low DM-BT (≤0.9) including 2/2 CYP2D6 PM/PM and 5/5 IM/PM. In contrast, one (2%) of 48 patients with a low DM-BT had Endx Css more than 11.2 nmol/l. CONCLUSION: In patients not taking potent CYP2D6 inhibitors, DM-BT was associated with CYP2D6 genotype and 3 and 6 months Endx Css but did not provide better discrimination of Endx Css compared with CYP2D6 genotype alone. Further studies are needed to identify additional factors which alter Endx Css.