Restriction-site associated DNA markers provide new insights into the evolutionary history of the bark beetle genus Dendroctonus.

The bark beetle genus Dendroctonus contains some of the most economically important pests of conifers worldwide. Despite many attempts, there is no agreement today on the phylogenetic relationships within the genus, which limits our understanding of its evolutionary history. Here, using restriction-site associated DNA (RAD) markers from 70 specimens representing 17 species (85% of the known diversity) we inferred the phylogeny of the genus, its time of origin and biogeographic history, as well as the evolution of key ecological traits (host plants, larval behavior and adults' attack strategies). For all combinations of tested parameters (from 6444 to 23,570 RAD tags analyzed), the same, fully resolved topology was inferred. Our analyses suggest that the most recent common ancestor (mrca) of all extant Dendroctonus species was widely distributed across eastern Palearctic and western Nearctic during the early Miocene, from where species dispersed to other Holarctic regions. A first main inter-continental vicariance event occurred during early Miocene isolating the ancestors of D. armandi in the Palearctic, which was followed by the radiation of the main Dendroctonus lineages in North America. During the Late Miocene, the ancestor of the 'rufipennis' species group colonized north-east Palearctic regions from western North America, which was followed by a second main inter-continental vicariance event isolating Pleistocene populations in Asia (D. micans) and western North America (D. murrayanae and D. punctatus). The present study supports previous hypotheses explaining intercontinental range disjunctions across the Northern Hemisphere by the fragmentation of a continuous distribution due to climatic cooling, host range fragmentation and geological changes during the late Cenozoic. The reconstruction of ancestral ecological traits indicates that the mrca bored individual galleries and mass attacked the boles of pines. The gregarious feeding behavior of the larvae as well as the individual attack of the base of trees have apparently independently evolved twice in North America (in the 'rufipennis' and the 'valens' species groups), which suggests a higher adaptive potential than previously thought and may be of interest for plant protection and biodiversity conservation in a rapidly changing world.

Taking advantage of opportunistically collected historical occurrence data to detect responses to climate change: The case of temperature and Iberian dung beetles.

This study introduces a novel approach to leverage high-resolution historical climate data and opportunistically collected historical species occurrence data for detecting adaptive responses to global change. We applied this procedure to the temperature data and the most comprehensive Iberian dataset of dung beetle occurrences as an illustrative example. To understand how populations of different species are responding, we devised a procedure that compares the temporal trend of spatial and temperature variables at the locations and times of all the occurrence data collection (overall trend) with the specific temporal trends among the occurrences of each species. The prevalence of various species responses is linked to life history or taxonomic characteristics, enabling the identification of key factors influencing the propensity to experience different effects from climate change. Our findings suggest that nearly half of the Iberian dung beetle species may be adversely affected by temperature increases, with a geographic shift being the most common response. The results generated through the proposed methodology should be regarded as preliminary information, serving to formulate hypotheses about the diverse responses of species to climate change and aiding in the selection of candidate species capable of coping with challenges posed by changing temperatures.

Global predictions for the risk of establishment of Pierce's disease of grapevines.

The vector-borne bacterium Xylella fastidiosa is responsible for Pierce's disease (PD), a lethal grapevine disease that originated in the Americas. The international plant trade is expanding the geographic range of this pathogen, posing a new threat to viticulture worldwide. To assess the potential incidence of PD, we have built a dynamic epidemiological model based on the response of 36 grapevine varieties to the pathogen in inoculation assays and on the vectors' distribution when this information is available. Key temperature-driven epidemiological processes, such as PD symptom development and recovery, are mechanistically modelled. Integrating into the model high-resolution spatiotemporal climatic data from 1981 onward and different infectivity (R0) scenarios, we show how the main wine-producing areas thrive mostly in non-risk, transient, or epidemic-risk zones with potentially low growth rates in PD incidence. Epidemic-risk zones with moderate to high growth rates are currently marginal outside the US. However, a global expansion of epidemic-risk zones coupled with small increments in the disease growth rate is projected for 2050. Our study globally downscales the risk of PD establishment while highlighting the importance of considering climate variability, vector distribution, and an invasive criterion as factors to obtain better PD risk maps.

Xylella fastidiosa: climate suitability of European continent.

The bacterium Xylella fastidiosa (Xf) is a plant endophyte native to the Americas that causes diseases in many crops of economic importance (grapevine, Citrus, Olive trees etc). Xf has been recently detected in several regions outside of its native range including Europe where little is known about its potential geographical expansion. We collected data documenting the native and invaded ranges of the Xf subspecies fastidiosa, pauca and multiplex and fitted bioclimatic species distribution models (SDMs) to assess the potential climate suitability of European continent for those pathogens. According to model predictions, the currently reported distribution of Xf in Europe is small compared to the large extent of climatically suitable areas. The regions at high risk encompass the Mediterranean coastal areas of Spain, Greece, Italy and France, the Atlantic coastal areas of France, Portugal and Spain as well as the southwestern regions of Spain and lowlands in southern Italy. The extent of predicted climatically suitable conditions for the different subspecies are contrasted. The subspecies multiplex, and to a certain extent the subspecies fastidiosa, represent a threat to most of Europe while the climatically suitable areas for the subspecies pauca are mostly limited to the Mediterranean basin. These results provide crucial information for the design of a spatially informed European-scale integrated management strategy, including early detection surveys in plants and insect vectors and quarantine measures.

The evolution of climate tolerance in conifer-feeding aphids in relation to their host's climatic niche.

Climate adaptation has major consequences in the evolution and ecology of all living organisms. Though phytophagous insects are an important component of Earth's biodiversity, there are few studies investigating the evolution of their climatic preferences. This lack of research is probably because their evolutionary ecology is thought to be primarily driven by their interactions with their host plants. Here, we use a robust phylogenetic framework and species-level distribution data for the conifer-feeding aphid genus Cinara to investigate the role of climatic adaptation in the diversity and distribution patterns of these host-specialized insects. Insect climate niches were reconstructed at a macroevolutionary scale, highlighting that climate niche tolerance is evolutionarily labile, with closely related species exhibiting strong climatic disparities. This result may suggest repeated climate niche differentiation during the evolutionary diversification of Cinara. Alternatively, it may merely reflect the use of host plants that occur in disparate climatic zones, and thus, in reality the aphid species' fundamental climate niches may actually be similar but broad. Comparisons of the aphids' current climate niches with those of their hosts show that most Cinara species occupy the full range of the climatic tolerance exhibited by their set of host plants, corroborating the hypothesis that the observed disparity in Cinara species' climate niches can simply mirror that of their hosts. However, 29% of the studied species only occupy a subset of their hosts' climatic zone, suggesting that some aphid species do indeed have their own climatic limitations. Our results suggest that in host-specialized phytophagous insects, host associations cannot always adequately describe insect niches and abiotic factors must be taken into account.

Landscape epidemiology in urban environments: The example of rodent-borne Trypanosoma in Niamey, Niger.

Trypanosomes are protozoan parasites found worldwide, infecting humans and animals. In the past decade, the number of reports on atypical human cases due to Trypanosoma lewisi or T. lewisi-like has increased urging to investigate the multiple factors driving the disease dynamics, particularly in cities where rodents and humans co-exist at high densities. In the present survey, we used a species distribution model, Maxent, to assess the spatial pattern of Trypanosoma-positive rodents in the city of Niamey. The explanatory variables were landscape metrics describing urban landscape composition and physiognomy computed from 8 land-cover classes. We computed the metrics around each data location using a set of circular buffers of increasing radii (20m, 40m, 60m, 80m and 100m). For each spatial resolution, we determined the optimal combination of feature class and regularization multipliers by fitting Maxent with the full dataset. Since our dataset was small (114 occurrences) we expected an important uncertainty associated to data partitioning into calibration and evaluation datasets. We thus performed 350 independent model runs with a training dataset representing a random subset of 80% of the occurrences and the optimal Maxent parameters. Each model yielded a map of habitat suitability over Niamey, which was transformed into a binary map implementing a threshold maximizing the sensitivity and the specificity. The resulting binary maps were combined to display the proportion of models that indicated a good environmental suitability for Trypanosoma-positive rodents. Maxent performed better with landscape metrics derived from buffers of 80m. Habitat suitability for Trypanosoma-positive rodents exhibited large patches linked to urban features such as patch richness and the proportion of landscape covered by concrete or tarred areas. Such inferences could be helpful in assessing areas at risk, setting of monitoring programs, public and medical staff awareness or even vaccination campaigns.

Using insects to detect, monitor and predict the distribution of Xylella fastidiosa: a case study in Corsica.

We sampled ca 2500 specimens of Philaenus spumarius (Hemiptera: Aphrophoridae) throughout Corsica without a priori knowledge on the presence of symptoms on plants. We screened 448 specimens for the presence of Xylella fastidiosa (Xf) using qPCR and a custom nested PCR. qPCR appeared versatile and under-estimated the prevalence of Xf. Nested PCR showed that Xf was present in all populations. Molecular results were validated by prediction on the distribution of Xf made from tests conducted on plants, which shows the pertinence of using vectors in risk assessment studies. Xf was detected in tenerals and adults. Thus, P. spumarius could acquire Xf from its host plant, mostly Cistus monspeliensis in Corsica, which may act as reservoir for the next season. This contrasts with other observations and suggests that management strategies may have to be adapted on a case-by-case basis. At least two genetic entities and several variants of Xf not yet identified on plants were present in the insects, which suggests ancient introductions of Xf and a probable underestimation of the current diversity of the strains present in Corsica. Interestingly 6% of the specimens carried two subspecies of Xf. Studies are required to better characterize the strains present in Corsica and to determine how the disease was introduced, spread and why no sign of a potential epidemic was detected earlier. This study shows that, when sensitive enough methods are implemented, spittlebugs (and more specifically P. spumarius for which species distribution modelling shows it could be a good sentinel for Europe) can be used to predict and better assess the exact distribution of Xf. Furthermore, Xf multiply only in their foregut and does not become circulative, which facilitates its detection.

Assessing the Risk of Invasion by Tephritid Fruit Flies: Intraspecific Divergence Matters.

Widely distributed species often show strong phylogeographic structure, with lineages potentially adapted to different biotic and abiotic conditions. The success of an invasion process may thus depend on the intraspecific identity of the introduced propagules. However, pest risk analyses are usually performed without accounting for intraspecific diversity. In this study, we developed bioclimatic models using MaxEnt and boosted regression trees approaches, to predict the potential distribution in Europe of six economically important Tephritid pests (Ceratitis fasciventris (Bezzi), Bactrocera oleae (Rossi), Anastrepha obliqua (Macquart), Anastrepha fraterculus (Wiedemann), Rhagoletis pomonella (Walsh) and Bactrocera cucurbitae (Coquillet)). We considered intraspecific diversity in our risk analyses by independently modeling the distributions of conspecific lineages. The six species displayed different potential distributions in Europe. A strong signal of intraspecific climate envelope divergence was observed in most species. In some cases, conspecific lineages differed strongly in potential distributions suggesting that taxonomic resolution should be accounted for in pest risk analyses. No models (lineage- and species-based approaches) predicted high climatic suitability in the entire invaded range of B. oleae-the only species whose intraspecific identity of invading populations has been elucidated-in California. Host availability appears to play the most important role in shaping the geographic range of this specialist pest. However, climatic suitability values predicted by species-based models are correlated with population densities of B. oleae globally reported in California. Our study highlights how classical taxonomic boundaries may lead to under- or overestimation of the potential pest distributions and encourages accounting for intraspecific diversity when assessing the risk of biological invasion.

Dissecting the space-time structure of tree-ring datasets using the partial triadic analysis.

Tree-ring datasets are used in a variety of circumstances, including archeology, climatology, forest ecology, and wood technology. These data are based on microdensity profiles and consist of a set of tree-ring descriptors, such as ring width or early/latewood density, measured for a set of individual trees. Because successive rings correspond to successive years, the resulting dataset is a ring variables × trees × time datacube. Multivariate statistical analyses, such as principal component analysis, have been widely used for extracting worthwhile information from ring datasets, but they typically address two-way matrices, such as ring variables × trees or ring variables × time. Here, we explore the potential of the partial triadic analysis (PTA), a multivariate method dedicated to the analysis of three-way datasets, to apprehend the space-time structure of tree-ring datasets. We analyzed a set of 11 tree-ring descriptors measured in 149 georeferenced individuals of European larch (Larix decidua Miller) during the period of 1967-2007. The processing of densitometry profiles led to a set of ring descriptors for each tree and for each year from 1967-2007. The resulting three-way data table was subjected to two distinct analyses in order to explore i) the temporal evolution of spatial structures and ii) the spatial structure of temporal dynamics. We report the presence of a spatial structure common to the different years, highlighting the inter-individual variability of the ring descriptors at the stand scale. We found a temporal trajectory common to the trees that could be separated into a high and low frequency signal, corresponding to inter-annual variations possibly related to defoliation events and a long-term trend possibly related to climate change. We conclude that PTA is a powerful tool to unravel and hierarchize the different sources of variation within tree-ring datasets.