Socioeconomic and Demographic Risk Factors for SARS-CoV-2 Seropositivity Among Healthcare Workers in a UK Hospital: A Prospective Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: To protect healthcare workers (HCWs) from the consequences of disease due to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), it is necessary to understand the risk factors that drive exposure and infection within hospitals. Insufficient consideration of key socioeconomic variables is a limitation of existing studies that can lead to bias and residual confounding of proposed risk factors for infection. METHODS: The Co-STARs study prospectively enrolled 3679 HCWs between April 2020 and September 2020. We used multivariate logistic regression to comprehensively characterize the demographic, occupational, socioeconomic, and environmental risk factors for SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity. RESULTS: After adjusting for key confounders, relative household overcrowding (odds ratio [OR], 1.4 [95% confidence interval {CI}, 1.1-1.9]; P = .006), Black, Black British, Caribbean, or African ethnicity (OR, 1.7 [95% CI, 1.2-2.3]; P = .003), increasing age (ages 50-60 years: OR, 1.8 [95% CI, 1.3-2.4]; P < .001), lack of access to sick pay (OR, 1.8 [95% CI, 1.3-2.4]; P < .001). CONCLUSIONS: Socioeconomic and demographic factors outside the hospital were the main drivers of infection and exposure to SARS-CoV-2 during the first wave of the pandemic in an urban pediatric referral hospital. Overcrowding and out-of-hospital SARS-CoV-2 contact are less amenable to intervention. However, lack of access to sick pay among externally contracted staff is more easily rectifiable. Our findings suggest that providing easier access to sick pay would lead to a decrease in SARS-CoV-2 transmission and potentially that of other infectious diseases in hospital settings. CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION: NCT04380896.

Prioritizing persons deprived of liberty in global guidelines for tuberculosis preventive treatment.

In this Policy Forum piece, Aditya Narayan and colleagues discuss the challenges and opportunities for tuberculosis preventive treatment in carceral settings.

Long-Term Persistence of Spike Protein Antibody and Predictive Modeling of Antibody Dynamics After Infection With Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2.

BACKGROUND: Antibodies to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) have been shown to neutralize the virus in vitro and prevent disease in animal challenge models on reexposure. However, the current understanding of SARS-CoV-2 humoral dynamics and longevity is conflicting. METHODS: The COVID-19 Staff Testing of Antibody Responses Study (Co-Stars) prospectively enrolled 3679 healthcare workers to comprehensively characterize the kinetics of SARS-CoV-2 spike protein (S), receptor-binding domain, and nucleoprotein (N) antibodies in parallel. Participants screening seropositive had serial monthly serological testing for a maximum of 7 months with the Meso Scale Discovery Assay. Survival analysis determined the proportion of seroreversion, while 2 hierarchical gamma models predicted the upper and lower bounds of long-term antibody trajectory. RESULTS: A total of 1163 monthly samples were provided from 349 seropositive participants. At 200 days after symptoms, >95% of participants had detectable S antibodies, compared with 75% with detectable N antibodies. S antibody was predicted to remain detectable in 95% of participants until 465 days (95% confidence interval, 370-575 days) using a "continuous-decay" model and indefinitely using a "decay-to-plateau" model to account for antibody secretion by long-lived plasma cells. S-antibody titers were correlated strongly with surrogate neutralization in vitro (R2 = 0.72). N antibodies, however, decayed rapidly with a half-life of 60 days (95% confidence interval, 52-68 days). CONCLUSIONS: The Co-Stars data presented here provide evidence for long-term persistence of neutralizing S antibodies. This has important implications for the duration of functional immunity after SARS-CoV-2 infection. In contrast, the rapid decay of N antibodies must be considered in future seroprevalence studies and public health decision-making. This is the first study to establish a mathematical framework capable of predicting long-term humoral dynamics after SARS-CoV-2 infection. CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION: NCT04380896.

T cell responses to SARS-CoV-2 in healthy controls and primary immunodeficiency patients.

Understanding the T cell response to SARS-CoV-2 is key in patients who lack antibody production. We demonstrate the applicability of a functional assay to measure the T cell response in a cohort of patients with immunodeficiency.

Evolution of viral variants in remdesivir-treated and untreated SARS-CoV-2-infected pediatrics patients.

Detailed information on intrahost viral evolution in SARS-CoV-2 with and without treatment is limited. Sequential viral loads and deep sequencing of SARS-CoV-2 from the upper respiratory tract of nine hospitalized children, three of whom were treated with remdesivir, revealed that remdesivir treatment suppressed viral load in one patient but not in a second infected with an identical strain without any evidence of drug resistance found. Reduced levels of subgenomic RNA during treatment of the second patient, suggest an additional effect of remdesivir on viral replication. Haplotype reconstruction uncovered persistent SARS-CoV-2 variant genotypes in four patients. These likely arose from within-host evolution, although superinfection cannot be excluded in one case. Although our dataset is small, observed sample-to-sample heterogeneity in variant frequencies across four of nine patients suggests the presence of discrete viral populations in the lung with incomplete population sampling in diagnostic swabs. Such compartmentalization could compromise the penetration of remdesivir into the lung, limiting the drugs in vivo efficacy, as has been observed in other lung infections.

Prediction of Susceptibility to First-Line Tuberculosis Drugs by DNA Sequencing.

BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization recommends drug-susceptibility testing of Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex for all patients with tuberculosis to guide treatment decisions and improve outcomes. Whether DNA sequencing can be used to accurately predict profiles of susceptibility to first-line antituberculosis drugs has not been clear. METHODS: We obtained whole-genome sequences and associated phenotypes of resistance or susceptibility to the first-line antituberculosis drugs isoniazid, rifampin, ethambutol, and pyrazinamide for isolates from 16 countries across six continents. For each isolate, mutations associated with drug resistance and drug susceptibility were identified across nine genes, and individual phenotypes were predicted unless mutations of unknown association were also present. To identify how whole-genome sequencing might direct first-line drug therapy, complete susceptibility profiles were predicted. These profiles were predicted to be susceptible to all four drugs (i.e., pansusceptible) if they were predicted to be susceptible to isoniazid and to the other drugs or if they contained mutations of unknown association in genes that affect susceptibility to the other drugs. We simulated the way in which the negative predictive value changed with the prevalence of drug resistance. RESULTS: A total of 10,209 isolates were analyzed. The largest proportion of phenotypes was predicted for rifampin (9660 [95.4%] of 10,130) and the smallest was predicted for ethambutol (8794 [89.8%] of 9794). Resistance to isoniazid, rifampin, ethambutol, and pyrazinamide was correctly predicted with 97.1%, 97.5%, 94.6%, and 91.3% sensitivity, respectively, and susceptibility to these drugs was correctly predicted with 99.0%, 98.8%, 93.6%, and 96.8% specificity. Of the 7516 isolates with complete phenotypic drug-susceptibility profiles, 5865 (78.0%) had complete genotypic predictions, among which 5250 profiles (89.5%) were correctly predicted. Among the 4037 phenotypic profiles that were predicted to be pansusceptible, 3952 (97.9%) were correctly predicted. CONCLUSIONS: Genotypic predictions of the susceptibility of M. tuberculosis to first-line drugs were found to be correlated with phenotypic susceptibility to these drugs. (Funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and others.).

A case report of transmission and disease caused by Mycobacterium caprae and Mycobacterium bovis in Lima, Peru.

BACKGROUND: The Tuberculosis (TB) burden in Peru is significant with respect to both disease morbidity and mortality. Furthermore the recent diversification of farming enterprise to include a wide range of animal species has necessitated the consideration of members of the Mycobacterium Tuberculosis Complex (MTBC) with the potential for zoonotic transmission. M. bovis and M. caprae, a lesser known member of the MTBC exhibit an exceptionally wide host spectrum in animals and are capable of causing disease in humans. M. bovis has a predictable resistance profile which includes resistance to pyrazinamide. Thus, failure to identify M. bovis as the causative agent in reported TB cases leads to higher levels of treatment failure and contributes to the transmission of drug-resistant TB. CASE PRESENTATION: Reported here are the clinical presentations, investigations and treatment histories of two patients identified from a population level genotyping study in Lima, Peru that were at the time of treatment thought to be M. tuberculosis patients but in retrospect were spectated using whole genome sequencing as M. caprae and M. Bovis. CONCLUSIONS: The cases reported here constitute convincing evidence that M. caprae and M. bovis are causative agents of TB infection in humans in Peru and underscore the importance of species-level MTBC member identification to effectively control and treat zoonotic TB. Furthermore these cases highlight the challenges of using clinical risk factors to identify cases of zoonotic TB in humans as their clinical presentation and transmission history is often difficult to distinguish from anthroponotic TB.

Community transmission of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis is associated with activity space overlap in Lima, Peru.

BACKGROUND: Transmission of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDRTB) requires spatial proximity between infectious cases and susceptible persons. We assess activity space overlap among MDRTB cases and community controls to identify potential areas of transmission. METHODS: We enrolled 35 MDRTB cases and 64 TB-free community controls in Lima, Peru. Cases were whole genome sequenced and strain clustering was used as a proxy for transmission. GPS data were gathered from participants over seven days. Kernel density estimation methods were used to construct activity spaces from GPS locations and the utilization distribution overlap index (UDOI) was used to quantify activity space overlap. RESULTS: Activity spaces of controls (median = 35.6 km2, IQR = 25.1-54) were larger than cases (median = 21.3 km2, IQR = 17.9-48.6) (P = 0.02). Activity space overlap was greatest among genetically clustered cases (mean UDOI = 0.63, sd = 0.67) and lowest between cases and controls (mean UDOI = 0.13, sd = 0.28). UDOI was positively associated with genetic similarity of MDRTB strains between case pairs (P < 0.001). The odds of two cases being genetically clustered increased by 22% per 0.10 increase in UDOI (OR = 1.22, CI = 1.09-1.36, P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Activity space overlap is associated with MDRTB clustering. MDRTB transmission may be occurring in small, overlapping activity spaces in community settings. GPS studies may be useful in identifying new areas of MDRTB transmission.

Isoniazid Preventive Therapy in Contacts of Multidrug-Resistant Tuberculosis.

Rationale: The World Health Organization recommends the use of isoniazid (INH) alone or in combination with rifapentine to treat latent tuberculosis infections. The recent rise of drug-resistant tuberculosis has complicated the choice of treatment regimen for latent tuberculosis infection.Objectives: To evaluate the effects of INH preventive therapy on the contacts of patients with multidrug-resistant tuberculosis.Methods: In a prospective cohort study conducted between September 2009 and August 2012, we identified 4,500 index patients with tuberculosis and 14,044 tuberculosis-exposed household contacts who we followed for 1 year for the occurrence of incident tuberculosis disease. Although Peruvian national guidelines specify that INH preventive therapy should be provided to contacts aged 19 years old or younger, only half this group received INH preventive therapy.Measurements and Main Results: Among 4,216 contacts under 19 years of age, 2,106 contacts (50%) initiated INH preventive therapy at enrollment. The protective effect of INH was more extreme in contacts exposed to drug-sensitive tuberculosis (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.30; 95% confidence interval, 0.18-0.48) and to multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.19; 95% confidence interval, 0.05-0.66) compared with those exposed to mono-INH-resistant tuberculosis (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.80; 95% confidence interval, 0.23-2.80). In the second independent study, tuberculosis occurred in none of the 76 household contacts who received INH preventive therapy compared with 3% (8 of 273) of those who did not.Conclusions: Household contacts who received INH preventive therapy had a lower incidence of tuberculosis disease even when they had been exposed to an index patient with multidrug-resistant tuberculosis. INH may have a role in the management of latent multidrug-resistant tuberculosis infection.

Association between bacterial homoplastic variants and radiological pathology in tuberculosis.

BACKGROUND: Understanding how pathogen genetic factors contribute to pathology in TB could enable tailored treatments to the most pathogenic and infectious strains. New strategies are needed to control drug-resistant TB, which requires longer and costlier treatment. We hypothesised that the severity of radiological pathology on the chest radiograph in TB disease was associated with variants arising independently, multiple times (homoplasies) in the Mycobacterium tuberculosis genome. METHODS: We performed whole genome sequencing (Illumina HiSeq2000 platform) on M. tuberculosis isolates from 103 patients with drug-resistant TB in Lima between 2010 and 2013. Variables including age, sex, HIV status, previous TB disease and the percentage of lung involvement on the pretreatment chest radiograph were collected from health posts of the national TB programme. Genomic variants were identified using standard pipelines. RESULTS: Two mutations were significantly associated with more widespread radiological pathology in a multivariable regression model controlling for confounding variables (Rv2828c.141, RR 1.3, 95% CI 1.21 to 1.39, p<0.01; rpoC.1040 95% CI 1.77 to 2.16, RR 1.9, p<0.01). The rpoB.450 mutation was associated with less extensive radiological pathology (RR 0.81, 95% CI 0.69 to 0.94, p=0.03), suggestive of a bacterial fitness cost for this mutation in vivo. Patients with a previous episode of TB disease and those between 10 and 30 years of age also had significantly increased radiological pathology. CONCLUSIONS: This study is the first to compare the M. tuberculosis genome to radiological pathology on the chest radiograph. We identified two variants significantly positively associated with more widespread radiological pathology and one with reduced pathology. Prospective studies are warranted to determine whether mutations associated with increased pathology also predict the spread of drug-resistant TB.

A Case-Control Study to Identify Community Venues Associated with Genetically-clustered, Multidrug-resistant Tuberculosis Disease in Lima, Peru.

BACKGROUND: The majority of tuberculosis transmission occurs in community settings. Our primary aim in this study was to assess the association between exposure to community venues and multidrug-resistant (MDR) tuberculosis. Our secondary aim was to describe the social networks of MDR tuberculosis cases and controls. METHODS: We recruited laboratory-confirmed MDR tuberculosis cases and community controls that were matched on age and sex. Whole-genome sequencing was used to identify genetically clustered cases. Venue tracing interviews (nonblinded) were conducted to enumerate community venues frequented by participants. Logistic regression was used to assess the association between MDR tuberculosis and person-time spent in community venues. A location-based social network was constructed, with respondents connected if they reported frequenting the same venue, and an exponential random graph model (ERGM) was fitted to model the network. RESULTS: We enrolled 59 cases and 65 controls. Participants reported 729 unique venues. The mean number of venues reported was similar in both groups (P = .92). Person-time in healthcare venues (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 1.67, P = .01), schools (aOR = 1.53, P < .01), and transportation venues (aOR = 1.25, P = .03) was associated with MDR tuberculosis. Healthcare venues, markets, cinemas, and transportation venues were commonly shared among clustered cases. The ERGM indicated significant community segregation between cases and controls. Case networks were more densely connected. CONCLUSIONS: Exposure to healthcare venues, schools, and transportation venues was associated with MDR tuberculosis. Intervention across the segregated network of case venues may be necessary to effectively stem transmission.

Investigating spillover of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis from a prison: a spatial and molecular epidemiological analysis.

BACKGROUND: Congregate settings may serve as institutional amplifiers of tuberculosis (TB) and multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB). We analyze spatial, epidemiological, and pathogen genetic data prospectively collected from neighborhoods surrounding a prison in Lima, Peru, where inmates experience a high risk of MDR-TB, to investigate the risk of spillover into the surrounding community. METHODS: Using hierarchical Bayesian statistical modeling, we address three questions regarding the MDR-TB risk: (i) Does the excess risk observed among prisoners also extend outside the prison? (ii) If so, what is the magnitude, shape, and spatial range of this spillover effect? (iii) Is there evidence of additional transmission across the region? RESULTS: The region of spillover risk extends for 5.47 km outside of the prison (95% credible interval: 1.38, 9.63 km). Within this spillover region, we find that nine of the 467 non-inmate patients (35 with MDR-TB) have MDR-TB strains that are genetic matches to strains collected from current inmates with MDR-TB, compared to seven out of 1080 patients (89 with MDR-TB) outside the spillover region (p values: 0.022 and 0.008). We also identify eight spatially aggregated genetic clusters of MDR-TB, four within the spillover region, consistent with local transmission among individuals living close to the prison. CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrate a clear prison spillover effect in this population, which suggests that interventions in the prison may have benefits that extend to the surrounding community.

A multiple genome analysis of Mycobacterium tuberculosis reveals specific novel genes and mutations associated with pyrazinamide resistance.

BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis (TB) is a major global health problem and drug resistance compromises the efforts to control this disease. Pyrazinamide (PZA) is an important drug used in both first and second line treatment regimes. However, its complete mechanism of action and resistance remains unclear. RESULTS: We genotyped and sequenced the complete genomes of 68 M. tuberculosis strains isolated from unrelated TB patients in Peru. No clustering pattern of the strains was verified based on spoligotyping. We analyzed the association between PZA resistance with non-synonymous mutations and specific genes. We found mutations in pncA and novel genes significantly associated with PZA resistance in strains without pncA mutations. These included genes related to transportation of metal ions, pH regulation and immune system evasion. CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest potential alternate mechanisms of PZA resistance that have not been found in other populations, supporting that the antibacterial activity of PZA may hit multiple targets.

Recombination in pe/ppe genes contributes to genetic variation in Mycobacterium tuberculosis lineages.

BACKGROUND: Approximately 10% of the Mycobacterium tuberculosis genome is made up of two families of genes that are poorly characterized due to their high GC content and highly repetitive nature. The PE and PPE families are typified by their highly conserved N-terminal domains that incorporate proline-glutamate (PE) and proline-proline-glutamate (PPE) signature motifs. They are hypothesised to be important virulence factors involved with host-pathogen interactions, but their high genetic variability and complexity of analysis means they are typically disregarded in genome studies. RESULTS: To elucidate the structure of these genes, 518 genomes from a diverse international collection of clinical isolates were de novo assembled. A further 21 reference M. tuberculosis complex genomes and long read sequence data were used to validate the approach. SNP analysis revealed that variation in the majority of the 168 pe/ppe genes studied was consistent with lineage. Several recombination hotspots were identified, notably pe_pgrs3 and pe_pgrs17. Evidence of positive selection was revealed in 65 pe/ppe genes, including epitopes potentially binding to major histocompatibility complex molecules. CONCLUSIONS: This, the first comprehensive study of the pe and ppe genes, provides important insight into M. tuberculosis diversity and has significant implications for vaccine development.

Rationing tests for drug-resistant tuberculosis - who are we prepared to miss?

BACKGROUND: Early identification of patients with drug-resistant tuberculosis (DR-TB) increases the likelihood of treatment success and interrupts transmission. Resource-constrained settings use risk profiling to ration the use of drug susceptibility testing (DST). Nevertheless, no studies have yet quantified how many patients with DR-TB this strategy will miss. METHODS: A total of 1,545 subjects, who presented to Lima health centres with possible TB symptoms, completed a clinic-epidemiological questionnaire and provided sputum samples for TB culture and DST. The proportion of drug resistance in this population was calculated and the data was analysed to demonstrate the effect of rationing tests to patients with multidrug-resistant TB (MDR-TB) risk factors on the number of tests needed and corresponding proportion of missed patients with DR-TB. RESULTS: Overall, 147/1,545 (9.5%) subjects had culture-positive TB, of which 32 (21.8%) had DR-TB (MDR, 13.6%; isoniazid mono-resistant, 7.5%; rifampicin mono-resistant, 0.7%). A total of 553 subjects (35.8%) reported one or more MDR-TB risk factors; of these, 506 (91.5%; 95% CI, 88.9-93.7%) did not have TB, 32/553 (5.8%; 95% CI, 3.4-8.1%) had drug-susceptible TB, and only 15/553 (2.7%; 95% CI, 1.5-4.4%) had DR-TB. Rationing DST to those with an MDR-TB risk factor would have missed more than half of the DR-TB population (17/32, 53.2%; 95% CI, 34.7-70.9). CONCLUSIONS: Rationing DST based on known MDR-TB risk factors misses an unacceptable proportion of patients with drug-resistance in settings with ongoing DR-TB transmission. Investment in diagnostic services to allow universal DST for people with presumptive TB should be a high priority.

The effect of surgery on the outcome of treatment for multidrug-resistant tuberculosis: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: In 2014 only 50 % of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) patients achieved a successful treatment outcome. With limited options for medical treatment, surgery has re-emerged as an adjuvant therapeutic strategy. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to assess the evidence for the effect of surgery as an adjunct to chemotherapy on outcomes of adults treated for MDR-TB. METHODS: Databases and grey literature sources were searched using terms incorporating surgery and MDR-TB. No language or publication type limits were applied. Articles published pre-1990, without a comparator group, or reporting <10 surgical participants were excluded. Two-stage sifting in duplicate was employed. Data on WHO-defined treatment outcomes were abstracted into a standardised database. Study-level risk of bias was evaluated using standardised tools. Outcome-level evidence quality was assessed using GRADE. Forest plots were generated, random effects meta-analysis conducted, and heterogeneity assessed using the I(2) statistic. RESULTS: Of 1024 unique citations identified, 62 were selected for full-text review and 15 retained for inclusion. A further four articles were included after bibliography/citation searching, and one additional unpublished manuscript was identified, giving 20 articles for final inclusion. Six were meta-analyses/systematic reviews and 14 were primary research articles (observational studies). From the 14 primary research articles, a successful outcome (cured/treatment completed) was reported for 81.9 % (371/453) and 59.7 % (1197/2006) in the surgical and non-surgical group respectively, giving a summary odds ratio of 2.62 (95 % confidence interval 1.94-3.54). Loss to follow-up and treatment failure were lower in the surgery group (both p = 0.01). Overall GRADE quality of evidence for all outcomes considered was "very low". CONCLUSIONS: This meta-analysis suggests that surgery as an adjunct to chemotherapy is associated with improved treatment outcomes in MDR-TB patients. However, inherent limitations in observational study design, insufficient reporting, and lack of adjustment for confounders, led to grading of the evidence as very low quality. Data on rationale for surgical referral, subsequent outcomes and resource-limited settings are scarce, precluding evidence-based recommendations on the suitability of surgery by patient characteristics or setting. It is hoped that highlighted methodological and reporting gaps will encourage improved design and reporting of future surgical studies for MDR-TB.

The effect of early versus late treatment initiation after diagnosis on the outcomes of patients treated for multidrug-resistant tuberculosis: a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Globally it is estimated that 480 000 people developed multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) in 2014 and 190 000 people died from the disease. Successful treatment outcomes are achieved in only 50 % of patients with MDR-TB, compared to 86 % for drug susceptible disease. It is widely held that delay in time to initiation of treatment for MDR-TB is an important predictor of treatment outcome. The objective of this review was to assess the existing evidence on the outcomes of multidrug- and extensively drug-resistant tuberculosis patients treated early (≤4 weeks) versus late (>4 weeks) after diagnosis of drug resistance. METHODS: Eight sources providing access to 17 globally representative electronic health care databases, indexes, sources of evidence-based reviews and grey literature were searched using terms incorporating time to treatment and MDR-TB. Two-stage sifting in duplicate was employed to assess studies against pre-specified inclusion and exclusion criteria. Only those articles reporting WHO-defined treatment outcomes were considered for inclusion. Articles reporting on fewer than 10 patients, published before 1990, or without a comparison of outcomes in patient groups experiencing different delays to treatment initiation were excluded. RESULTS: The initial search yielded 1978 references, of which 1475 unique references remained after removal of duplicates and 28 articles published pre-1990. After title and abstract sifting, 64 papers underwent full text review. None of these articles fulfilled the criteria for inclusion in the review. CONCLUSIONS: Whilst there is an inherent logic in the theory that treatment delay will lead to poorer treatment outcomes, no published evidence was identified in this systematic review to support this hypothesis. Reports of programmatic changes leading to reductions in treatment delay exist in the literature, but attribution of differences in outcomes specifically to treatment delay is confounded by other contemporaneous changes. Further primary research on this question is not considered a high priority use of limited resources, though where data are available, improved reporting of outcomes by time to treatment should be encouraged.

Transmission of Multidrug-Resistant and Drug-Susceptible Tuberculosis within Households: A Prospective Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: The "fitness" of an infectious pathogen is defined as the ability of the pathogen to survive, reproduce, be transmitted, and cause disease. The fitness of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDRTB) relative to drug-susceptible tuberculosis is cited as one of the most important determinants of MDRTB spread and epidemic size. To estimate the relative fitness of drug-resistant tuberculosis cases, we compared the incidence of tuberculosis disease among the household contacts of MDRTB index patients to that among the contacts of drug-susceptible index patients. METHODS AND FINDINGS: This 3-y (2010-2013) prospective cohort household follow-up study in South Lima and Callao, Peru, measured the incidence of tuberculosis disease among 1,055 household contacts of 213 MDRTB index cases and 2,362 household contacts of 487 drug-susceptible index cases. A total of 35/1,055 (3.3%) household contacts of 213 MDRTB index cases developed tuberculosis disease, while 114/2,362 (4.8%) household contacts of 487 drug-susceptible index patients developed tuberculosis disease. The total follow-up time for drug-susceptible tuberculosis contacts was 2,620 person-years, while the total follow-up time for MDRTB contacts was 1,425 person-years. Using multivariate Cox regression to adjust for confounding variables including contact HIV status, contact age, socio-economic status, and index case sputum smear grade, the hazard ratio for tuberculosis disease among MDRTB household contacts was found to be half that for drug-susceptible contacts (hazard ratio 0.56, 95% CI 0.34-0.90, p = 0.017). The inference of transmission in this study was limited by the lack of genotyping data for household contacts. Capturing incident disease only among household contacts may also limit the extrapolation of these findings to the community setting. CONCLUSIONS: The low relative fitness of MDRTB estimated by this study improves the chances of controlling drug-resistant tuberculosis. However, fitter multidrug-resistant strains that emerge over time may make this increasingly difficult.