RESUMO
BACKGROUND: There are few statistics on dialysis-dependent individuals with end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) in Qatar. Having access to this information can aid in better understanding the dialysis development model, aiding higher-level services in future planning. In order to give data for creating preventive efforts, we thus propose a time-series with a definitive endogenous model to predict ESKD patients requiring dialysis. METHODS: In this study, we used four mathematical equations linear, exponential, logarithmic decimal, and polynomial regression, to make predictions using historical data from 2012 to 2021. These equations were evaluated based on time-series analysis, and their prediction performance was assessed using the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), coefficient of determination (R2), and mean absolute deviation (MAD). Because it remained largely steady for the population at risk of ESKD in this investigation, we did not consider the population growth factor to be changeable. (FIFA World Cup 2022 preparation workforce associated growth was in healthy and young workers that did not influence ESKD prevalence). RESULT: The polynomial has a high R2 of 0.99 and is consequently the best match for the prevalence dialysis data, according to numerical findings. Thus, the MAPE is 2.28, and the MAD is 9.87%, revealing a small prediction error with good accuracy and variability. The polynomial algorithm is the simplest and best-calculated projection model, according to these results. The number of dialysis patients in Qatar is anticipated to increase to 1037 (95% CI, 974-1126) in 2022, 1245 (95% CI, 911-1518) in 2025, and 1611 (95% CI, 1378-1954) in 2030, with a 5.67% average yearly percentage change between 2022 and 2030. CONCLUSION: Our research offers straightforward and precise mathematical models for predicting the number of patients in Qatar who will require dialysis in the future. We discovered that the polynomial technique outperformed other methods. Future planning for the need for dialysis services can benefit from this forecasting.
RESUMO
The objective of this study was to assess the effect of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection on graft and patient survival in a cohort of Libyan renal transplant recipients. Medical records of 241 renal transplant (RT) patients who have been followed-up at the Benghazi Nephrology Center up to February 2010 were reviewed. Based on the presence or absence of anti-HCV antibodies and HCV-RNA in the serum, patients were divided into two groups: HCV-positives and HCV-negatives. Anti-HCV antibodies were detected by the enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay technique and HCV-RNA by the polymerase chain reaction. Of the 241 RT patients, 162 were male and 79 were female. One hundred and ten patients (45.6%) were HCV-positives and 131 (54.4%) were HCV-negatives. Acute graft rejection was significantly higher among HCV-negative than HCV-positive patients (42 patients versus 28 patients, respectively; P<0.001). Conversely, chronic graft rejection was higher among HCV-positives than that among HCV-negative patients (35 patients versus 24 patients, respectively; P<0.05), and this difference became more significant after a 12-month period of transplantation (P<0.01). Seventeen patients died during the follow-up: Seven HCV-positives (6.3%) and 10 HCV-negatives (7.6%), and there was no significant difference in the death rate following RT between the two groups (P=0.08). Among the seven deaths of HCV-positives, liver disease-related complications were the main cause of death in three (42.8%) HCV-positive patients compared with none in the HCV-negative patients. The presence of HCV infection influenced chronic graft survival in RT patients and a higher proportion of HCV-infected patients had hepatic dysfunctions after RT. An increase in fatal liver complications was noted in HCV-positive patients with RT. In addition to pre-RT-specific therapy of HCV infection, all measures should be taken to prevent HCV infection pre- and post-RT. HCV-infected RT recipients need close monitoring for graft and liver function to prolong allograft and patient survival.