Adjunctive Dexamethasone for Tuberculous Meningitis in HIV-Positive Adults.

BACKGROUND: Adjunctive glucocorticoids are widely used to treat human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-associated tuberculous meningitis despite limited data supporting their safety and efficacy. METHODS: We conducted a double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled trial involving HIV-positive adults (≥18 years of age) with tuberculous meningitis in Vietnam and Indonesia. Participants were randomly assigned to receive a 6-to-8-week tapering course of either dexamethasone or placebo in addition to 12 months of antituberculosis chemotherapy. The primary end point was death from any cause during the 12 months after randomization. RESULTS: A total of 520 adults were randomly assigned to receive either dexamethasone (263 participants) or placebo (257 participants). The median age was 36 years; 255 of 520 participants (49.0%) had never received antiretroviral therapy, and 251 of 484 participants (51.9%) with available data had a baseline CD4 count of 50 cells per cubic millimeter or less. Six participants withdrew from the trial, and five were lost to follow-up. During the 12 months of follow-up, death occurred in 116 of 263 participants (44.1%) in the dexamethasone group and in 126 of 257 participants (49.0%) in the placebo group (hazard ratio, 0.85; 95% confidence interval, 0.66 to 1.10; P = 0.22). Prespecified analyses did not reveal a subgroup that clearly benefited from dexamethasone. The incidence of secondary end-point events, including cases of immune reconstitution inflammatory syndrome during the first 6 months, was similar in the two trial groups. The numbers of participants with at least one serious adverse event were similar in the dexamethasone group (192 of 263 participants [73.0%]) and the placebo group (194 of 257 participants [75.5%]) (P = 0.52). CONCLUSIONS: Among HIV-positive adults with tuberculous meningitis, adjunctive dexamethasone, as compared with placebo, did not confer a benefit with respect to survival or any secondary end point. (Funded by the Wellcome Trust; ACT HIV ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT03092817.).

Evaluation of hydroxychloroquine or chloroquine for the prevention of COVID-19 (COPCOV): A double-blind, randomised, placebo-controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) has proved ineffective in treating patients hospitalised with Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19), but uncertainty remains over its safety and efficacy in chemoprevention. Previous chemoprevention randomised controlled trials (RCTs) did not individually show benefit of HCQ against COVID-19 and, although meta-analysis did suggest clinical benefit, guidelines recommend against its use. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Healthy adult participants from the healthcare setting, and later from the community, were enrolled in 26 centres in 11 countries to a double-blind, placebo-controlled, randomised trial of COVID-19 chemoprevention. HCQ was evaluated in Europe and Africa, and chloroquine (CQ) was evaluated in Asia, (both base equivalent of 155 mg once daily). The primary endpoint was symptomatic COVID-19, confirmed by PCR or seroconversion during the 3-month follow-up period. The secondary and tertiary endpoints were: asymptomatic laboratory-confirmed Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection; severity of COVID-19 symptoms; all-cause PCR-confirmed symptomatic acute respiratory illness (including SARS-CoV-2 infection); participant reported number of workdays lost; genetic and baseline biochemical markers associated with symptomatic COVID-19, respiratory illness and disease severity (not reported here); and health economic analyses of HCQ and CQ prophylaxis on costs and quality of life measures (not reported here). The primary and safety analyses were conducted in the intention-to-treat (ITT) population. Recruitment of 40,000 (20,000 HCQ arm, 20,000 CQ arm) participants was planned but was not possible because of protracted delays resulting from controversies over efficacy and adverse events with HCQ use, vaccine rollout in some countries, and other factors. Between 29 April 2020 and 10 March 2022, 4,652 participants (46% females) were enrolled (HCQ/CQ n = 2,320; placebo n = 2,332). The median (IQR) age was 29 (23 to 39) years. SARS-CoV-2 infections (symptomatic and asymptomatic) occurred in 1,071 (23%) participants. For the primary endpoint the incidence of symptomatic COVID-19 was 240/2,320 in the HCQ/CQ versus 284/2,332 in the placebo arms (risk ratio (RR) 0.85 [95% confidence interval, 0.72 to 1.00; p = 0.05]). For the secondary and tertiary outcomes asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections occurred in 11.5% of HCQ/CQ recipients and 12.0% of placebo recipients: RR: 0.96 (95% CI, 0.82 to 1.12; p = 0.6). There were no differences in the severity of symptoms between the groups and no severe illnesses. HCQ/CQ chemoprevention was associated with fewer PCR-confirmed all-cause respiratory infections (predominantly SARS-CoV-2): RR 0.61 (95% CI, 0.42 to 0.88; p = 0.009) and fewer days lost to work because of illness: 104 days per 1,000 participants over 90 days (95% CI, 12 to 199 days; p < 0.001). The prespecified meta-analysis of all published pre-exposure RCTs indicates that HCQ/CQ prophylaxis provided a moderate protective benefit against symptomatic COVID-19: RR 0.80 (95% CI, 0.71 to 0.91). Both drugs were well tolerated with no drug-related serious adverse events (SAEs). Study limitations include the smaller than planned study size, the relatively low number of PCR-confirmed infections, and the lower comparative accuracy of serology endpoints (in particular, the adapted dried blood spot method) compared to the PCR endpoint. The COPCOV trial was registered with ClinicalTrials.gov; number NCT04303507. INTERPRETATION: In this large placebo-controlled, double-blind randomised trial, HCQ and CQ were safe and well tolerated in COVID-19 chemoprevention, and there was evidence of moderate protective benefit in a meta-analysis including this trial and similar RCTs. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT04303507; ISRCTN Registry ISRCTN10207947.

Aspergillus fumigatus-a systematic review to inform the World Health Organization priority list of fungal pathogens.

Recognizing the growing global burden of fungal infections, the World Health Organization established a process to develop a priority list of fungal pathogens (FPPL). In this systematic review, we aimed to evaluate the epidemiology and impact of invasive infections caused by Aspergillus fumigatus to inform the first FPPL. The pre-specified criteria of mortality, inpatient care, complications and sequelae, antifungal susceptibility, risk factors, preventability, annual incidence, global distribution, and emergence were used to search for relevant articles between 1 January 2016 and 10 June 2021. Overall, 49 studies were eligible for inclusion. Azole antifungal susceptibility varied according to geographical regions. Voriconazole susceptibility rates of 22.2% were reported from the Netherlands, whereas in Brazil, Korea, India, China, and the UK, voriconazole susceptibility rates were 76%, 94.7%, 96.9%, 98.6%, and 99.7%, respectively. Cross-resistance was common with 85%, 92.8%, and 100% of voriconazole-resistant A. fumigatus isolates also resistant to itraconazole, posaconazole, and isavuconazole, respectively. The incidence of invasive aspergillosis (IA) in patients with acute leukemia was estimated at 5.84/100 patients. Six-week mortality rates in IA cases ranged from 31% to 36%. Azole resistance and hematological malignancy were poor prognostic factors. Twelve-week mortality rates were significantly higher in voriconazole-resistant than in voriconazole-susceptible IA cases (12/22 [54.5%] vs. 27/88 [30.7%]; P = .035), and hematology patients with IA had significantly higher mortality rates compared with solid-malignancy cases who had IA (65/217 [30%] vs. 14/78 [18%]; P = .04). Carefully designed surveillance studies linking laboratory and clinical data are required to better inform future FPPL.

Fusarium species,Scedosporium species, and Lomentospora prolificans: A systematic review to inform the World Health Organization priority list of fungal pathogens.

Recognizing the growing global burden of fungal infections, the World Health Organization established a process to develop a priority list of fungal pathogens (FPPL). In this systematic review, we aimed to evaluate the epidemiology and impact of infections caused by Fusarium spp., Scedosporium spp., and Lomentospora prolificans to inform the first FPPL. PubMed and Web of Sciences databases were searched to identify studies published between January 1, 2011 and February 23, 2021, reporting on mortality, complications and sequelae, antifungal susceptibility, preventability, annual incidence, and trends. Overall, 20, 11, and 9 articles were included for Fusarium spp., Scedosporium spp., and L. prolificans, respectively. Mortality rates were high in those with invasive fusariosis, scedosporiosis, and lomentosporiosis (42.9%-66.7%, 42.4%-46.9%, and 50.0%-71.4%, respectively). Antifungal susceptibility data, based on small isolate numbers, showed high minimum inhibitory concentrations (MIC)/minimum effective concentrations for most currently available antifungal agents. The median/mode MIC for itraconazole and isavuconazole were ≥16 mg/l for all three pathogens. Based on limited data, these fungi are emerging. Invasive fusariosis increased from 0.08 cases/100 000 admissions to 0.22 cases/100 000 admissions over the time periods of 2000-2009 and 2010-2015, respectively, and in lung transplant recipients, Scedosporium spp. and L. prolificans were only detected from 2014 onwards. Global surveillance to better delineate antifungal susceptibility, risk factors, sequelae, and outcomes is required.

Clinical presentation, management, and outcome of suspected central nervous system infections in Indonesia: a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Little is known about the etiology, clinical presentation, management, and outcome of central nervous system (CNS) infections in Indonesia, a country with a high burden of infectious diseases and a rising prevalence of HIV. METHODS: We included adult patients with suspected CNS infections at two referral hospitals in a prospective cohort between April 2019 and December 2021. Clinical, laboratory, and radiological assessments were standardized. We recorded initial and final diagnoses, treatments, and outcomes during 6 months of follow-up. RESULTS: Of 1051 patients screened, 793 were diagnosed with a CNS infection. Patients (median age 33 years, 62% male, 38% HIV-infected) presented a median of 14 days (IQR 7-30) after symptom onset, often with altered consciousness (63%), motor deficits (73%), and seizures (21%). Among HIV-uninfected patients, CNS tuberculosis (TB) was most common (60%), while viral (8%) and bacterial (4%) disease were uncommon. Among HIV-infected patients, cerebral toxoplasmosis (41%) was most common, followed by CNS TB (19%), neurosyphilis (15%), and cryptococcal meningitis (10%). A microbiologically confirmed diagnosis was achieved in 25% of cases, and initial diagnoses were revised in 46% of cases. In-hospital mortality was 30%, and at six months, 45% of patients had died, and 12% suffered from severe disability. Six-month mortality was associated with older age, HIV, and severe clinical, radiological and CSF markers at presentation. CONCLUSION: CNS infections in Indonesia are characterized by late presentation, severe disease, frequent HIV coinfection, low microbiological confirmation and high mortality. These findings highlight the need for earlier disease recognition, faster and more accurate diagnosis, and optimized treatment, coupled with wider efforts to improve the uptake of HIV services.

Anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibody dynamics after primary vaccination with two-dose inactivated whole-virus vaccine, heterologous mRNA-1273 vaccine booster, and Omicron breakthrough infection in Indonesian health care workers.

BACKGROUND: Data on the dynamics and persistence of humoral immunity against SARS-CoV-2 after primary vaccination with two-dose inactivated vaccine (CoronaVac) are limited. This study evaluated the sequential effects of prior infection, heterologous boosting with mRNA-1273 (Moderna), and the occurrence of Omicron vaccine-breakthrough infection (VBI) thereafter. METHODS: We evaluated anti-spike IgG (Abbott) and neutralising (cPASS/GenScript) antibody (nAb) titers up to one year after mRNA-1273 boost in two-dose-CoronaVac-primed Indonesian healthcare workers (August 2021-August 2022). We used linear mixed modeling to estimate the rate of change in antibody levels, and logistic regression to examine associations between antibody levels and VBI. RESULTS: Of 138 participants, 52 (37.7%) had a prior infection and 78 (56.5%) received an mRNA-1273 booster. After two-dose CoronaVac, antibody titers had significantly declined within 180 days, irrespective of prior infection. After mRNA-1273 booster, anti-spike IgG (1.47% decline/day) and Omicron B.1.1.529/BA.2 nAbs declined between day 28-90, and IgG titers plateaued between day 90-360. During the BA.1/BA.2 wave (February-March 2022), 34.6% (27/78) of individuals experienced a VBI (median 181 days after mRNA-1273), although none developed severe illness. VBI was associated with low pre-VBI anti-spike IgG and B.1.1.529/BA.2 nAbs, which were restored post-VBI. CONCLUSIONS: mRNA-1273 booster after two-dose CoronaVac did not prevent BA.1/BA.2 VBI. Periodic vaccine boosters may be warranted against emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants.

Understanding the Potential Impact of Different Drug Properties on Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Transmission and Disease Burden: A Modelling Analysis.

BACKGROUND: The public health impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has motivated a rapid search for potential therapeutics, with some key successes. However, the potential impact of different treatments, and consequently research and procurement priorities, have not been clear. METHODS: Using a mathematical model of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission, COVID-19 disease and clinical care, we explore the public-health impact of different potential therapeutics, under a range of scenarios varying healthcare capacity, epidemic trajectories; and drug efficacy in the absence of supportive care. RESULTS: The impact of drugs like dexamethasone (delivered to the most critically-ill in hospital and whose therapeutic benefit is expected to depend on the availability of supportive care such as oxygen and mechanical ventilation) is likely to be limited in settings where healthcare capacity is lowest or where uncontrolled epidemics result in hospitals being overwhelmed. As such, it may avert 22% of deaths in high-income countries but only 8% in low-income countries (assuming R = 1.35). Therapeutics for different patient populations (those not in hospital, early in the course of infection) and types of benefit (reducing disease severity or infectiousness, preventing hospitalization) could have much greater benefits, particularly in resource-poor settings facing large epidemics. CONCLUSIONS: Advances in the treatment of COVID-19 to date have been focused on hospitalized-patients and predicated on an assumption of adequate access to supportive care. Therapeutics delivered earlier in the course of infection that reduce the need for healthcare or reduce infectiousness could have significant impact, and research into their efficacy and means of delivery should be a priority.

Plasma Inflammatory Biomarkers Predict CD4+ T-cell Recovery and Viral Rebound in HIV-1 Infected Africans on Suppressive Antiretroviral Therapy.

This multicountry prospective study investigated whether persistent systemic inflammation, measured by 8 plasma biomarkers, in HIV-1-infected Africans during suppressive antiretroviral therapy (ART) (viral load <50 copies/mL), was associated with CD4+ T-cell recovery and viral rebound (>1000 copies/mL) during long-term treatment. On-ART sCD14 and C-reactive protein concentrations were inversely associated with subsequent CD4+ T-cell counts. Risk of viral rebound was increased for participants with higher on-ART CXCL10 concentrations and reduced for those with a greater sCD163 decline during the first year of ART. Persistent systemic inflammation predicted CD4+ T-cell recovery and viral rebound, warranting further mechanistic research in relation to clinical outcomes.

2021 update to HIV-TRePS: a highly flexible and accurate system for the prediction of treatment response from incomplete baseline information in different healthcare settings.

OBJECTIVES: With the goal of facilitating the use of HIV-TRePS to optimize therapy in settings with limited healthcare resources, we aimed to develop computational models to predict treatment responses accurately in the absence of commonly used baseline data. METHODS: Twelve sets of random forest models were trained using very large, global datasets to predict either the probability of virological response (classifier models) or the absolute change in viral load in response to a new regimen (absolute models) following virological failure. Two 'standard' models were developed with all baseline variables present and 10 others developed without HIV genotype, time on therapy, CD4 count or any combination of the above. RESULTS: The standard classifier models achieved an AUC of 0.89 in cross-validation and independent testing. Models with missing variables achieved AUC values of 0.78-0.90. The standard absolute models made predictions that correlated significantly with observed changes in viral load with a mean absolute error of 0.65 log10 copies HIV RNA/mL in cross-validation and 0.69 log10 copies HIV RNA/mL in independent testing. Models with missing variables achieved values of 0.65-0.75 log10 copies HIV RNA/mL. All models identified alternative regimens that were predicted to be effective for the vast majority of cases where the new regimen prescribed in the clinic failed. All models were significantly better predictors of treatment response than genotyping with rules-based interpretation. CONCLUSIONS: These latest models that predict treatment responses accurately, even when a number of baseline variables are not available, are a major advance with greatly enhanced potential benefit, particularly in resource-limited settings. The only obstacle to realizing this potential is the willingness of healthcare professions to use the system.

Distinct rates and patterns of spread of the major HIV-1 subtypes in Central and East Africa.

Since the ignition of the HIV-1 group M pandemic in the beginning of the 20th century, group M lineages have spread heterogeneously throughout the world. Subtype C spread rapidly through sub-Saharan Africa and is currently the dominant HIV lineage worldwide. Yet the epidemiological and evolutionary circumstances that contributed to its epidemiological expansion remain poorly understood. Here, we analyse 346 novel pol sequences from the DRC to compare the evolutionary dynamics of the main HIV-1 lineages, subtypes A1, C and D. Our results place the origins of subtype C in the 1950s in Mbuji-Mayi, the mining city of southern DRC, while subtypes A1 and D emerged in the capital city of Kinshasa, and subtypes H and J in the less accessible port city of Matadi. Following a 15-year period of local transmission in southern DRC, we find that subtype C spread at least three-fold faster than other subtypes circulating in Central and East Africa. In conclusion, our results shed light on the origins of HIV-1 main lineages and suggest that socio-historical rather than evolutionary factors may have determined the epidemiological fate of subtype C in sub-Saharan Africa.

Low-Abundance Drug-Resistant HIV-1 Variants in Antiretroviral Drug-Naive Individuals: A Systematic Review of Detection Methods, Prevalence, and Clinical Impact.

BACKGROUND: The presence of high-abundance drug-resistant HIV-1 jeopardizes success of antiretroviral therapy (ART). Despite numerous investigations, the clinical impact of low-abundance drug-resistant HIV-1 variants (LA-DRVs) at levels <15%-25% of the virus population in antiretroviral (ARV) drug-naive individuals remains controversial. METHODS: We systematically reviewed 103 studies assessing prevalence, detection methods, technical and clinical detection cutoffs, and clinical significance of LA-DRVs in antiretroviral drug-naive adults. RESULTS: In total, 14 919 ARV drug-naive individuals were included. Prevalence of LA-DRVs (ie, proportion of individuals harboring LA-DRVs) was 0%-100%. Technical detection cutoffs showed a 4 log range (0.001%-10%); 42/103 (40.8%) studies investigating the impact of LA-DRVs on ART; 25 studies included only individuals on first-line nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor-based ART regimens. Eleven of those 25 studies (44.0%) reported a significantly association between preexisting LA-DRVs and risk of virological failure whereas 14/25 (56.0%) did not. CONCLUSIONS: Comparability of the 103 studies is hampered by high heterogeneity of the studies' designs and use of different methods to detect LA-DRVs. Thus, evaluating clinical impact of LA-DRVs on first-line ART remains challenging. We, the WHO HIVResNet working group, defined central areas of future investigations to guide further efforts to implement ultrasensitive resistance testing in routine settings.

Plasma Biomarkers of Human Immunodeficiency Virus-Related Systemic Inflammation and Immune Activation in Sub-Saharan Africa Before and During Suppressive Antiretroviral Therapy.

We evaluated immune biomarker profiles in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected adults (n = 398) from 5 African countries. Although all biomarkers decreased after antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation, levels of C-X-C chemokine ligand 10 (CXCL10), lipopolysaccharide-binding protein, C-reactive protein, soluble CD163, and soluble scavenger receptor CD14 were significantly higher during ART than in an HIV-uninfected reference group (n = 90), indicating persistent monocyte/macrophage activation, inflammation, and microbial translocation. Before ART initiation, high HIV viral load was associated with elevated CXCL10 and tuberculosis coinfection was associated with elevated soluble CD14. High pre-ART levels of each biomarker strongly predicted residual immune activation during ART. Chemokine (C-C motif) ligand 2, lipopolysaccharide-binding protein, C-reactive protein, and interleukin 6 were differentially expressed between countries. Further research is needed on the clinical implications of residual immune dysregulation.

Primary resistance to integrase strand transfer inhibitors in patients infected with diverse HIV-1 subtypes in sub-Saharan Africa.

Objectives: To investigate the prevalence and patterns of major and accessory resistance mutations associated with integrase strand transfer inhibitors (INSTIs), across diverse HIV-1 subtypes in sub-Saharan Africa. Methods: pol gene sequences were obtained using Illumina next-generation sequencing from 425 INSTI-naive HIV-infected adults from Kenya (21.2%), Nigeria (7.3%), South Africa (22.8%), Uganda (25.2%) and Zambia (23.5%). Drug resistance interpretation was based on the IAS 2017 mutation list and accessory mutations from Stanford HIVdb with resistance penalty scores of ≥10 to at least 1 INSTI. Resistance was further classified based on sensitivity thresholds of ≥20% (Sanger sequencing) and 1%-20% for low-frequency variants (next-generation sequencing). Results: Of 425 genotypes, 48.7% were subtype C, 28.5% A, 10.1% D, 2.8% G and 9.9% were recombinants. Major INSTI resistance mutations were detected only at <20% threshold, at a prevalence of 2.4% (2.5% in subtype A, 2.4% C, 0% D, 8.3% G and 2.4% in recombinants) and included T66A/I (0.7%), E92G (0.5%), Y143C/S (0.7%), S147G (0.2%) and Q148R (0.5%). Accessory mutations occurred at a prevalence of 15.1% at the ≥20% threshold (23.1% in subtype A, 8.7% C, 11.6% D, 25% G and 23.8% in recombinants), and included L74I/M (10.4%), Q95K (0.5%), T97A (4%), E157Q (0.7%) and G163R/K (0.7%). Conclusions: Major INSTI resistance mutations were rare and only occurred at low-level resistance detection thresholds. INSTI-based regimens are expected to be effective across the different major HIV-1 subtypes in the region.

2018 update to the HIV-TRePS system: the development of new computational models to predict HIV treatment outcomes, with or without a genotype, with enhanced usability for low-income settings.

Objectives: Optimizing antiretroviral drug combination on an individual basis can be challenging, particularly in settings with limited access to drugs and genotypic resistance testing. Here we describe our latest computational models to predict treatment responses, with or without a genotype, and compare their predictive accuracy with that of genotyping. Methods: Random forest models were trained to predict the probability of virological response to a new therapy introduced following virological failure using up to 50 000 treatment change episodes (TCEs) without a genotype and 18 000 TCEs including genotypes. Independent data sets were used to evaluate the models. This study tested the effects on model accuracy of relaxing the baseline data timing windows, the use of a new filter to exclude probable non-adherent cases and the addition of maraviroc, tipranavir and elvitegravir to the system. Results: The no-genotype models achieved area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC) values of 0.82 and 0.81 using the standard and relaxed baseline data windows, respectively. The genotype models achieved AUC values of 0.86 with the new non-adherence filter and 0.84 without. Both sets of models were significantly more accurate than genotyping with rules-based interpretation, which achieved AUC values of only 0.55-0.63, and were marginally more accurate than previous models. The models were able to identify alternative regimens that were predicted to be effective for the vast majority of cases in which the new regimen prescribed in the clinic failed. Conclusions: These latest global models predict treatment responses accurately even without a genotype and have the potential to help optimize therapy, particularly in resource-limited settings.

Protease Inhibitor Resistance in the First 3 Years of Second-Line Antiretroviral Therapy for HIV-1 in Sub-Saharan Africa.

BACKGROUND: As antiretroviral therapy (ART) programs in sub-Saharan Africa mature, increasing numbers of persons with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection will experience treatment failure, and require second- or third-line ART. Data on second-line failure and development of protease inhibitor (PI) resistance in sub-Saharan Africa are scarce. METHODS: HIV-1-infected adults were included if they received >180 days of PI-based second-line ART. We assessed risk factors for having a detectable viral load (VL, ≥400 cps/mL) using Cox models. If VL was ≥1000 cps/mL, genotyping was performed. RESULTS: Of 227 included participants, 14.6%, 15.2% and 11.1% had VLs ≥400 cps/mL at 12, 24, and 36 months, respectively. Risk factors for a detectable VL were as follows: exposure to nonstandard nonnucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI)-based (hazard ratio, 7.10; 95% confidence interval, 3.40-14.83; P < .001) or PI-based (7.59; 3.02-19.07; P = .001) first-line regimen compared with zidovudine/lamivudine/NNRTI, PI resistance at switch (6.69; 2.49-17.98; P < .001), and suboptimal adherence (3.05; 1.71-5.42; P = .025). Among participants with VLs ≥1000 cps/mL, 22 of 32 (69%) harbored drug resistance mutation(s), and 7 of 32 (22%) harbored PI resistance. CONCLUSIONS: Although VL suppression rates were high, PI resistance was detected in 22% of participants with VLs ≥1000 cps/mL. To ensure long-term ART success, intensified support for adherence, VL and drug resistance testing, and third-line drugs will be necessary.

Prevalence and dynamics of the K65R drug resistance mutation in HIV-1-infected infants exposed to maternal therapy with lamivudine, zidovudine and either nevirapine or nelfinavir in breast milk.

BACKGROUND: K65R is a relatively rare drug resistance mutation (DRM) selected by the NRTIs tenofovir, didanosine, abacavir and stavudine and confers cross-resistance to all NRTIs except zidovudine. Selection by other NRTIs is uncommon. OBJECTIVES: In this study we investigated the frequency of emergence of the K65R mutation and factors associated with it in HIV-1-infected infants exposed to low doses of maternal lamivudine, zidovudine and either nevirapine or nelfinavir ingested through breast milk, using specimens collected from the Kisumu Breastfeeding Study. METHODS: Plasma specimens with viral load ≥1000 copies/mL collected from HIV-infected infants at 0-1, 2, 6, 14, 24 and 36 weeks of age and maternal samples at delivery were tested for HIV drug resistance using Sanger sequencing of the polymerase gene. Factors associated with K65R emergence were assessed using Fisher's exact test and the Wilcoxon rank-sum test. RESULTS: K65R was detected in samples from 6 of the 24 infants (25%) who acquired HIV-1 infection by the age of 6 months. K65R emerged in half of the infants by 6 weeks and in the rest by 14 weeks of age. None of the mothers at delivery or the infants with a positive genotype at first time of positivity had the K65R mutation. Infants with K65R had low baseline CD4 cell counts (P = 0.014), were more likely to have DRMs earlier (≤6 weeks versus ≥14 weeks, P = 0.007) and were more likely to have multiclass drug resistance (P = 0.035). M184V was the most common mutation associated with K65R emergence. K65R had reverted by 3 months after cessation of breastfeeding. CONCLUSIONS: A high rate of K65R emergence may suggest that ingesting low doses of lamivudine via breast milk could select for this mutation. The presence of this mutation may have a negative impact on future responses to NRTI-based ART. More in vitro studies are, however, needed to establish the molecular mechanism for this selection.

An update to the HIV-TRePS system: the development and evaluation of new global and local computational models to predict HIV treatment outcomes, with or without a genotype.

OBJECTIVES: Optimizing antiretroviral drug combination on an individual basis in resource-limited settings is challenging because of the limited availability of drugs and genotypic resistance testing. Here, we describe our latest computational models to predict treatment responses, with or without a genotype, and compare the potential utility of global and local models as a treatment tool for South Africa. METHODS: Global random forest models were trained to predict the probability of virological response to therapy following virological failure using 29 574 treatment change episodes (TCEs) without a genotype, 3179 of which were from South Africa and were used to develop local models. In addition, 15 130 TCEs including genotypes were used to develop another set of models. The 'no-genotype' models were tested with an independent global test set (n = 1700) plus a subset from South Africa (n = 222). The genotype models were tested with 750 independent cases. RESULTS: The global no-genotype models achieved area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC) values of 0.82 and 0.79 with the global and South African tests sets, respectively, and the South African models achieved AUCs of 0.70 and 0.79. The genotype models achieved an AUC of 0.84. The global no-genotype models identified more alternative, locally available regimens that were predicted to be effective for cases that failed their new regimen in the South African clinics than the local models. Both sets of models were significantly more accurate predictors of outcomes than genotyping with rules-based interpretation. CONCLUSIONS: These latest global models predict treatment responses accurately even without a genotype, out-performed the local South African models and have the potential to help optimize therapy, particularly in resource-limited settings.

Accumulation of HIV-1 drug resistance after continued virological failure on first-line ART in adults and children in sub-Saharan Africa.

OBJECTIVES: Limited availability of viral load (VL) monitoring in HIV treatment programmes in sub-Saharan Africa can delay switching to second-line ART, leading to the accumulation of drug resistance mutations (DRMs). The objective of this study was to evaluate the accumulation of resistance to reverse transcriptase inhibitors after continued virological failure on first-line ART, among adults and children in sub-Saharan Africa. METHODS: HIV-1-positive adults and children on an NNRTI-based first-line ART were included. Retrospective VL and, if VL ≥1000 copies/mL, pol genotypic testing was performed. Among participants with continued virological failure (≥2 VL ≥1000 copies/mL), drug resistance was evaluated. RESULTS: At first virological failure, DRM(s) were detected in 87% of participants: K103N (38.7%), G190A (21.8%), Y181C (20.2%), V106M (8.4%), K101E (8.4%), any E138 (7.6%) and V108I (7.6%) associated with NNRTIs, and M184V (69.7%), any thymidine analogue mutation (9.2%), K65R (5.9%) and K70R (5.0%) associated with NRTIs. New DRMs accumulated with an average rate of 1.45 (SD 2.07) DRM per year; 0.62 (SD 1.11) NNRTI DRMs and 0.84 (SD 1.38) NRTI DRMs per year, respectively. The predicted susceptibility declined significantly after continued virological failure for all reverse transcriptase inhibitors (all P < 0.001). Acquired drug resistance patterns were similar in adults and children. CONCLUSIONS: Patterns of drug resistance after virological failure on first-line ART are similar in adults and children in sub-Saharan Africa. Improved VL monitoring to prevent accumulation of mutations, and new drug classes to construct fully active regimens, are required.

Pretreatment HIV drug resistance increases regimen switches in sub-Saharan Africa.

BACKGROUND: After the scale-up of antiretroviral therapy (ART) for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection in Africa, increasing numbers of patients have pretreatment drug resistance. METHODS: In a large multicountry cohort of patients starting standard first-line ART in six African countries, pol genotyping was retrospectively performed if viral load (VL) ≥1000 cps/mL. Pretreatment drug resistance was defined as a decreased susceptibility to ≥1 prescribed drug. We assessed the effect of pretreatment drug resistance on all-cause mortality, new AIDS events and switch to second-line ART due to presumed treatment failure, using Cox models. RESULTS: Among 2579 participants for whom a pretreatment genotype was available, 5.5% had pretreatment drug resistance. Pretreatment drug resistance was associated with an increased risk of regimen switch (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 3.80; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.49-9.68; P = .005) but was not associated with mortality (aHR 0.75, 95% CI, .24-2.35; P = .617) or new AIDS events (aHR 1.06, 95% CI, .68-1.64; P = .807). During three years of follow up, 106 (4.1%) participants switched to second-line, of whom 18 (17.0%) switched with VL < 1000 cps/mL, 7 (6.6%) with VL ≥ 1000 cps/mL and no drug resistance mutations (DRMs), 46 (43.4%) with VL ≥ 1000 cps/mL and ≥1 DRMs; no HIV RNA data was available for 32 (30.2%) participants. CONCLUSIONS: Given rising pretreatment HIV drug resistance levels in sub-Saharan Africa, these findings underscore the need for expanded access to second-line ART. VL monitoring can improve the accuracy of failure detection and efficiency of switching practices.