Exposure Patterns Driving Ebola Transmission in West Africa: A Retrospective Observational Study.

BACKGROUND: The ongoing West African Ebola epidemic began in December 2013 in Guinea, probably from a single zoonotic introduction. As a result of ineffective initial control efforts, an Ebola outbreak of unprecedented scale emerged. As of 4 May 2015, it had resulted in more than 19,000 probable and confirmed Ebola cases, mainly in Guinea (3,529), Liberia (5,343), and Sierra Leone (10,746). Here, we present analyses of data collected during the outbreak identifying drivers of transmission and highlighting areas where control could be improved. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Over 19,000 confirmed and probable Ebola cases were reported in West Africa by 4 May 2015. Individuals with confirmed or probable Ebola ("cases") were asked if they had exposure to other potential Ebola cases ("potential source contacts") in a funeral or non-funeral context prior to becoming ill. We performed retrospective analyses of a case line-list, collated from national databases of case investigation forms that have been reported to WHO. These analyses were initially performed to assist WHO's response during the epidemic, and have been updated for publication. We analysed data from 3,529 cases in Guinea, 5,343 in Liberia, and 10,746 in Sierra Leone; exposures were reported by 33% of cases. The proportion of cases reporting a funeral exposure decreased over time. We found a positive correlation (r = 0.35, p < 0.001) between this proportion in a given district for a given month and the within-district transmission intensity, quantified by the estimated reproduction number (R). We also found a negative correlation (r = -0.37, p < 0.001) between R and the district proportion of hospitalised cases admitted within ≤4 days of symptom onset. These two proportions were not correlated, suggesting that reduced funeral attendance and faster hospitalisation independently influenced local transmission intensity. We were able to identify 14% of potential source contacts as cases in the case line-list. Linking cases to the contacts who potentially infected them provided information on the transmission network. This revealed a high degree of heterogeneity in inferred transmissions, with only 20% of cases accounting for at least 73% of new infections, a phenomenon often called super-spreading. Multivariable regression models allowed us to identify predictors of being named as a potential source contact. These were similar for funeral and non-funeral contacts: severe symptoms, death, non-hospitalisation, older age, and travelling prior to symptom onset. Non-funeral exposures were strongly peaked around the death of the contact. There was evidence that hospitalisation reduced but did not eliminate onward exposures. We found that Ebola treatment units were better than other health care facilities at preventing exposure from hospitalised and deceased individuals. The principal limitation of our analysis is limited data quality, with cases not being entered into the database, cases not reporting exposures, or data being entered incorrectly (especially dates, and possible misclassifications). CONCLUSIONS: Achieving elimination of Ebola is challenging, partly because of super-spreading. Safe funeral practices and fast hospitalisation contributed to the containment of this Ebola epidemic. Continued real-time data capture, reporting, and analysis are vital to track transmission patterns, inform resource deployment, and thus hasten and maintain elimination of the virus from the human population.

High mortality associated with an outbreak of hepatitis E among displaced persons in Darfur, Sudan.

BACKGROUND: Hepatitis E virus (HEV) causes acute onset of jaundice and a high case-fatality ratio in pregnant women. We provide a clinical description of hospitalized case patients and assess the specific impact on pregnant women during a large epidemic of HEV infection in a displaced population in Mornay camp (78,800 inhabitants), western Darfur, Sudan. METHODS: We reviewed hospital records. A sample of 20 clinical cases underwent laboratory confirmation. These patients were tested for immunoglobulin G (IgG) and immunoglobulin M (IgM) antibody to HEV (serum) and for amplification of the HEV genome (serum and stool). We performed a cross-sectional survey in the community to determine the attack rate and case-fatality ratio in pregnant women. RESULTS: Over 6 months, 253 HEV cases were recorded at the hospital, of which 61 (24.1%) were in pregnant women. A total of 72 cases (39.1% of those for whom clinical records were available) had a diagnosis of hepatic encephalopathy. Of the 45 who died (case-fatality ratio, 17.8%), 19 were pregnant women (specific case-fatality ratio, 31.1%). Acute hepatitis E was confirmed in 95% (19/20) of cases sampled; 18 case-patients were positive for IgG (optical density ratio > or =3), for IgM (optical density ratio >2 ), or for both, whereas 1 was negative for IgG and IgM but positive for HEV RNA in serum. The survey identified 220 jaundiced women among the 1133 pregnant women recorded over 3 months (attack rate, 19.4%). A total of 18 deaths were recorded among these jaundiced pregnant women (specific case-fatality ratio, 8.2%). CONCLUSIONS: This large epidemic of HEV infection illustrates the dramatic impact of this disease on pregnant women. Timely interventions and a vaccine are urgently needed to prevent mortality in this special group.

A large outbreak of hepatitis E among a displaced population in Darfur, Sudan, 2004: the role of water treatment methods.

BACKGROUND: The conflict in Darfur, Sudan, was responsible for the displacement of 1.8 million civilians. We investigated a large outbreak of hepatitis E virus (HEV) infection in Mornay camp (78,800 inhabitants) in western Darfur. METHODS: To describe the outbreak, we used clinical and demographic information from cases recorded at the camp between 26 July and 31 December 2004. We conducted a case-cohort study and a retrospective cohort study to identify risk factors for clinical and asymptomatic hepatitis E, respectively. We collected stool and serum samples from animals and performed a bacteriological analysis of water samples. Human samples were tested for immunoglobulin G and immunoglobulin M antibody to HEV (for serum samples) and for amplification of the HEV genome (for serum and stool samples). RESULTS: In 6 months, 2621 hepatitis E cases were recorded (attack rate, 3.3%), with a case-fatality rate of 1.7% (45 deaths, 19 of which involved were pregnant women). Risk factors for clinical HEV infection included age of 15-45 years (odds ratio, 2.13; 95% confidence interval, 1.02-4.46) and drinking chlorinated surface water (odds ratio, 2.49; 95% confidence interval, 1.22-5.08). Both factors were also suggestive of increased risk for asymptomatic HEV infection, although this was not found to be statistically significant. HEV RNA was positively identified in serum samples obtained from 2 donkeys. No bacteria were identified from any sample of chlorinated water tested. CONCLUSIONS: Current recommendations to ensure a safe water supply may have been insufficient to inactivate HEV and control this epidemic. This research highlights the need to evaluate current water treatment methods and to identify alternative solutions adapted to complex emergencies.

Infection rates with Leishmania donovani and Mycobacterium tuberculosis in a village in eastern Sudan.

BACKGROUND: Leishmania-tuberculosis co-infection is not uncommon in clinical practice in East Africa, but little is known about the epidemiology of this problem at population level. A cross-sectional household survey was carried out in an active visceral leishmaniasis (VL) focus in Eastern Sudan in February 2002. METHODS: All inhabitants of Marbata village in Atbara River Area, Gedarif State, who gave informed consent, underwent both a leishmanin skin test (LST) and a tuberculin test for infection with L. donovani and Mycobacterium tuberculosis. All subjects were clinically screened for VL and tuberculosis (TB). RESULTS: About 66% (252 of 382) were LST-positive, 26% (100 of 382) were tuberculin-positive and 20% (77 of 382) were positive for both tests. By the age of 15, more than 60% of inhabitants were LST-positive, but <20% were tuberculin-positive. By the age of 30, these percentages increased to 100 and 50%. No association was found at the individual level between leishmanial and tuberculous infection after controlling for age. CONCLUSION: In this community study, we found no association between the risk of infection with L. donovani and M. tuberculosis. However, the progression to active VL disease might be different in M. tuberculosis-infected than in non-infected persons and vice versa. Prospective studies are needed to document the prognosis of TB/VL co-infection.