Antigenic cartography using sera from sequence-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern infections reveals antigenic divergence of Omicron.

Large-scale vaccination campaigns have prevented countless hospitalizations and deaths due to COVID-19. However, the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants that escape from immunity challenges the effectiveness of current vaccines. Given this continuing evolution, an important question is when and how to update SARS-CoV-2 vaccines to antigenically match circulating variants, similarly to seasonal influenza viruses where antigenic drift necessitates periodic vaccine updates. Here, we studied SARS-CoV-2 antigenic drift by assessing neutralizing activity against variants of concern (VOCs) in a set of sera from patients infected with viral sequence-confirmed VOCs. Infections with D614G or Alpha strains induced the broadest immunity, whereas individuals infected with other VOCs had more strain-specific responses. Omicron BA.1 and BA.2 were substantially resistant to neutralization by sera elicited by all other variants. Antigenic cartography revealed that Omicron BA.1 and BA.2 were antigenically most distinct from D614G, associated with immune escape, and possibly will require vaccine updates to ensure vaccine effectiveness.

Strategies for Using Antigen Rapid Diagnostic Tests to Reduce Transmission of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 in Low- and Middle-Income Countries: A Mathematical Modelling Study Applied to Zambia.

BACKGROUND: Increasing the availability of antigen rapid diagnostic tests (Ag-RDTs) in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) is key to alleviating global SARS-CoV-2 testing inequity (median testing rate in December 2021-March 2022 when the Omicron variant was spreading in multiple countries: high-income countries = 600 tests/100 000 people/day; LMICs = 14 tests/100 000 people/day). However, target testing levels and effectiveness of asymptomatic community screening to impact SARS-CoV-2 transmission in LMICs are unclear. METHODS: We used Propelling Action for Testing and Treating (PATAT), an LMIC-focused agent-based model to simulate coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemics, varying the amount of Ag-RDTs available for symptomatic testing at healthcare facilities and asymptomatic community testing in different social settings. We assumed that testing was a function of access to healthcare facilities and availability of Ag-RDTs. We explicitly modelled symptomatic testing demand from individuals without SARS-CoV-2 and measured impact based on the number of infections averted due to test-and-isolate. RESULTS: Testing symptomatic individuals yields greater benefits than any asymptomatic community testing strategy until most symptomatic individuals who sought testing have been tested. Meeting symptomatic testing demand likely requires at least 200-400 tests/100 000 people/day, on average, as symptomatic testing demand is highly influenced by individuals without SARS-CoV-2. After symptomatic testing demand is satisfied, excess tests to proactively screen for asymptomatic infections among household members yield the largest additional infections averted. CONCLUSIONS: Testing strategies aimed at reducing transmission should prioritize symptomatic testing and incentivizing test-positive individuals to adhere to isolation to maximize effectiveness.

N-Glycolylneuraminic Acid Binding of Avian and Equine H7 Influenza A Viruses.

Influenza A viruses (IAV) initiate infection by binding to glycans with terminal sialic acids on the cell surface. Hosts of IAV variably express two major forms of sialic acid, N-acetylneuraminic acid (NeuAc) and N-glycolylneuraminic acid (NeuGc). NeuGc is produced in most mammals, including horses and pigs, but is absent in humans, ferrets, and birds. The only known naturally occurring IAV that exclusively bind NeuGc are extinct highly pathogenic equine H7N7 viruses. We determined the crystal structure of a representative equine H7 hemagglutinin (HA) in complex with NeuGc and observed high similarity in the receptor-binding domain with an avian H7 HA. To determine the molecular basis for NeuAc and NeuGc specificity, we performed systematic mutational analyses, based on the structural insights, on two distant avian H7 HAs and an H15 HA. We found that the A135E mutation is key for binding α2,3-linked NeuGc but does not abolish NeuAc binding. The additional mutations S128T, I130V, T189A, and K193R converted the specificity from NeuAc to NeuGc. We investigated the residues at positions 128, 130, 135, 189, and 193 in a phylogenetic analysis of avian and equine H7 HAs. This analysis revealed a clear distinction between equine and avian residues. The highest variability was observed at key position 135, of which only the equine glutamic acid led to NeuGc binding. These results demonstrate that genetically distinct H7 and H15 HAs can be switched from NeuAc to NeuGc binding and vice versa after the introduction of several mutations, providing insights into the adaptation of H7 viruses to NeuGc receptors. IMPORTANCE Influenza A viruses cause millions of cases of severe illness and deaths annually. To initiate infection and replicate, the virus first needs to bind to a structure on the cell surface, like a key fitting in a lock. For influenza A viruses, these "keys" (receptors) on the cell surface are chains of sugar molecules (glycans). The terminal sugar on these glycans is often either N-acetylneuraminic acid (NeuAc) or N-glycolylneuraminic acid (NeuGc). Most influenza A viruses bind NeuAc, but a small minority bind NeuGc. NeuGc is present in species like horses, pigs, and mice but not in humans, ferrets, and birds. Here, we investigated the molecular determinants of NeuGc specificity and the origin of viruses that bind NeuGc.

The Glycan Hole Area of HIV-1 Envelope Trimers Contributes Prominently to the Induction of Autologous Neutralization.

The human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) trimeric envelope glycoprotein (Env) is heavily glycosylated, creating a dense glycan shield that protects the underlying peptidic surface from antibody recognition. The absence of conserved glycans, due to missing potential N-linked glycosylation sites (PNGS), can result in strain-specific, autologous neutralizing antibody (NAb) responses. Here, we sought to gain a deeper understanding of the autologous neutralization by introducing holes in the otherwise dense glycan shields of the AMC011 and AMC016 SOSIP trimers. Specifically, when we knocked out the N130 and N289 glycans, which are absent from the well-characterized B41 SOSIP trimer, we observed stronger autologous NAb responses. We also analyzed the highly variable NAb responses induced in rabbits by diverse SOSIP trimers from subtypes A, B, and C. Statistical analysis, using linear regression, revealed that the cumulative area exposed on a trimer by glycan holes correlates with the magnitude of the autologous NAb response. IMPORTANCE Forty years after the first description of HIV-1, the search for a protective vaccine is still ongoing. The sole target for antibodies that can neutralize the virus are the trimeric envelope glycoproteins (Envs) located on the viral surface. The glycoprotein surface is covered with glycans that shield off the underlying protein components from recognition by the immune system. However, the Env trimers of some viral strains have holes in the glycan shield. Immunized animals developed antibodies against such glycan holes. These antibodies are generally strain specific. Here, we sought to gain a deeper understanding of what drives these specific immune responses. First, we show that strain-specific neutralizing antibody responses can be increased by creating artificial holes in the glycan shield. Second, when studying a diverse set of Env trimers with different characteristics, we found that the surface area of the glycan holes contributes prominently to the induction of strain-specific neutralizing antibodies.

Epidemiologic and Genomic Analysis of SARS-CoV-2 Delta Variant Superspreading Event in Nightclub, the Netherlands, June 2021.

We report a severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 superspreading event in the Netherlands after distancing rules were lifted in nightclubs, despite requiring a negative test or vaccination. This occurrence illustrates the potential for rapid dissemination of variants in largely unvaccinated populations under such conditions. We detected subsequent community transmission of this strain.

Hepatitis C Virus Transmission Among Men Who Have Sex With Men in Amsterdam: External Introductions May Complicate Microelimination Efforts.

BACKGROUND: It is unclear whether unrestricted access and high uptake of direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) is sufficient to eliminate hepatitis C virus (HCV) in high-risk populations such as men who have sex with men (MSM). This study presents historic trends and current dynamics of HCV transmission among MSM in Amsterdam based on sequence data collected between 1994 and 2019. METHODS: Hypervariable region 1 sequences of 232 primary HCV infections and 56 reinfections were obtained from 244 MSM in care in Amsterdam. Maximum-likelihood phylogenies were constructed for HCV genotypes separately, and time-scaled phylogenies were constructed using a Bayesian coalescent approach. Transmission clusters were determined by Phydelity and trends in the proportion of unclustered sequences over time were evaluated using logistic regression. RESULTS: Seventy-six percent (218/288) of sequences were part of 21 transmission clusters and 13 transmission pairs. Transmission cluster sizes ranged from 3 to 44 sequences. Most clusters were introduced between the late 1990s and early 2010s and no new clusters were introduced after 2012. The proportion of unclustered sequences of subtype 1a, the most prevalent subtype in this population, fluctuated between 0% and 20% in 2009-2012, after which an increase occurred from 0% in 2012 to 50% in 2018. CONCLUSIONS: The proportion of external introductions of HCV infections among MSM in Amsterdam has recently increased, coinciding with high DAA uptake. Frequent international transmission events will likely complicate local microelimination efforts. Therefore, international collaboration combined with international scale-up of prevention, testing, and treatment of HCV infections (including reinfections) is warranted, in particular for local microelimination efforts.

Phylogenetic Clustering by Linear Integer Programming (PhyCLIP).

Subspecies nomenclature systems of pathogens are increasingly based on sequence data. The use of phylogenetics to identify and differentiate between clusters of genetically similar pathogens is particularly prevalent in virology from the nomenclature of human papillomaviruses to highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5Nx viruses. These nomenclature systems rely on absolute genetic distance thresholds to define the maximum genetic divergence tolerated between viruses designated as closely related. However, the phylogenetic clustering methods used in these nomenclature systems are limited by the arbitrariness of setting intra and intercluster diversity thresholds. The lack of a consensus ground truth to define well-delineated, meaningful phylogenetic subpopulations amplifies the difficulties in identifying an informative distance threshold. Consequently, phylogenetic clustering often becomes an exploratory, ad hoc exercise. Phylogenetic Clustering by Linear Integer Programming (PhyCLIP) was developed to provide a statistically principled phylogenetic clustering framework that negates the need for an arbitrarily defined distance threshold. Using the pairwise patristic distance distributions of an input phylogeny, PhyCLIP parameterizes the intra and intercluster divergence limits as statistical bounds in an integer linear programming model which is subsequently optimized to cluster as many sequences as possible. When applied to the hemagglutinin phylogeny of HPAI H5Nx viruses, PhyCLIP was not only able to recapitulate the current WHO/OIE/FAO H5 nomenclature system but also further delineated informative higher resolution clusters that capture geographically distinct subpopulations of viruses. PhyCLIP is pathogen-agnostic and can be generalized to a wide variety of research questions concerning the identification of biologically informative clusters in pathogen phylogenies. PhyCLIP is freely available at http://github.com/alvinxhan/PhyCLIP, last accessed March 15, 2019.

Yield of Screening for COVID-19 in Asymptomatic Patients Before Elective or Emergency Surgery Using Chest CT and RT-PCR (SCOUT): Multicenter Study.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the yield of preoperative screening for COVID-19 with chest CT and RT-PCR in patients without COVID-19 symptoms. SUMMARY OF BACKGROUND DATA: Many centers are currently screening surgical patients for COVID-19 using either chest CT, RT-PCR or both, due to the risk for worsened surgical outcomes and nosocomial spread. The optimal design and yield of such a strategy are currently unknown. METHODS: This multicenter study included consecutive adult patients without COVID-19 symptoms who underwent preoperative screening using chest CT and RT-PCR before elective or emergency surgery under general anesthesia. RESULTS: A total of 2093 patients without COVID-19 symptoms were included in 14 participating centers; 1224 were screened by CT and RT-PCR and 869 by chest CT only. The positive yield of screening using a combination of chest CT and RT-PCR was 1.5% [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.8-2.1]. Individual yields were 0.7% (95% CI: 0.2-1.1) for chest CT and 1.1% (95% CI: 0.6-1.7) for RT-PCR; the incremental yield of chest CT was 0.4%. In relation to COVID-19 community prevalence, up to ∼6% positive RT-PCR was found for a daily hospital admission rate >1.5 per 100,000 inhabitants, and around 1.0% for lower prevalence. CONCLUSIONS: One in every 100 patients without COVID-19 symptoms tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 with RT-PCR; this yield increased in conjunction with community prevalence. The added value of chest CT was limited. Preoperative screening allowed us to take adequate precautions for SARS-CoV-2 positive patients in a surgical population, whereas negative patients needed only routine procedures.

Genetic and antigenic characterization of influenza A/H5N1 viruses isolated from patients in Indonesia, 2008-2015.

Since the initial detection in 2003, Indonesia has reported 200 human cases of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 (HPAI H5N1), associated with an exceptionally high case fatality rate (84%) compared to other geographical regions affected by other genetic clades of the virus. However, there is limited information on the genetic diversity of HPAI H5N1 viruses, especially those isolated from humans in Indonesia. In this study, the genetic and antigenic characteristics of 35 HPAI H5N1 viruses isolated from humans were analyzed. Full genome sequences were analyzed for the presence of substitutions in the receptor binding site, and polymerase complex, as markers for virulence or human adaptation, as well as antiviral drug resistance substitutions. Only a few substitutions associated with human adaptation were observed, a remarkably low prevalence of the human adaptive substitution PB2-E627K, which is common during human infection with other H5N1 clades and a known virulence marker for avian influenza viruses during human infections. In addition, the antigenic profile of these Indonesian HPAI H5N1 viruses was determined using serological analysis and antigenic cartography. Antigenic characterization showed two distinct antigenic clusters, as observed previously for avian isolates. These two antigenic clusters were not clearly associated with time of virus isolation. This study provides better insight in genetic diversity of H5N1 viruses during human infection and the presence of human adaptive markers. These findings highlight the importance of evaluating virus genetics for HPAI H5N1 viruses to estimate the risk to human health and the need for increased efforts to monitor the evolution of H5N1 viruses across Indonesia.

High frequency and diversity of parechovirus A in a cohort of Malawian children.

Parechoviruses (PeVs) are highly prevalent viruses worldwide. Over the last decades, several studies have been published on PeV epidemiology in Europe, Asia and North America, while information on other continents is lacking. The aim of this study was to describe PeV circulation in a cohort of children in Malawi, Africa. A total of 749 stool samples obtained from Malawian children aged 6 to 60 months were tested for the presence of PeV by real-time PCR. We performed typing by phylogenetic and Basic Local Alignment Search Tool (BLAST) analysis. PeV was found in 57% of stool samples. Age was significantly associated with PeV positivity (p = 0.01). Typing by phylogenetic analysis resulted in 15 different types, while BLAST typing resulted in 14 different types and several indeterminate strains. In total, six strains showed inconsistencies in typing between the two methods. One strain, P02-4058, remained untypable by all methods, but appeared to belong to the recently reclassified PeV-A19 genotype. PeV-A1, -A2 and -A3 were the most prevalent types (26.8%, 13.8% and 9.8%, respectively). Both the prevalence and genetic diversity found in our study were remarkably high. Our data provide an important contribution to the scarce data available on PeV epidemiology in Africa.

Intense interseasonal influenza outbreaks, Australia, 2018/19.

BackgroundInterseasonal influenza outbreaks are not unusual in countries with temperate climates and well-defined influenza seasons. Usually, these are small and diminish before the main influenza season begins. However, the 2018/19 summer-autumn interseasonal influenza period in Australia saw unprecedented large and widespread influenza outbreaks.AimOur objective was to determine the extent of the intense 2018/19 interseasonal influenza outbreaks in Australia epidemiologically and examine the genetic, antigenic and structural properties of the viruses responsible for these outbreaks.MethodsThis observational study combined the epidemiological and virological surveillance data obtained from the Australian Government Department of Health, the New South Wales Ministry of Health, sentinel outpatient surveillance, public health laboratories and data generated by the World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Reference and Research on Influenza in Melbourne and the Singapore Agency for Science, Technology and Research.ResultsThere was a record number of laboratory-confirmed influenza cases during the interseasonal period November 2018 to May 2019 (n= 85,286; 5 times the previous 3-year average) and also more institutional outbreaks, hospitalisations and deaths, than what is normally seen.ConclusionsThe unusually large interseasonal influenza outbreaks in 2018/19 followed a mild 2018 influenza season and resulted in a very early start to the 2019 influenza season across Australia. The reasons for this unusual event have yet to be fully elucidated but are likely to be a complex mix of climatic, virological and host immunity-related factors. These outbreaks reinforce the need for year-round surveillance of influenza, even in temperate climates with strong seasonality patterns.

Quantifying the molecular origins of opposite solvent effects on protein-protein interactions.

Although the nature of solvent-protein interactions is generally weak and non-specific, addition of cosolvents such as denaturants and osmolytes strengthens protein-protein interactions for some proteins, whereas it weakens protein-protein interactions for others. This is exemplified by the puzzling observation that addition of glycerol oppositely affects the association constants of two antibodies, D1.3 and D44.1, with lysozyme. To resolve this conundrum, we develop a methodology based on the thermodynamic principles of preferential interaction theory and the quantitative characterization of local protein solvation from molecular dynamics simulations. We find that changes of preferential solvent interactions at the protein-protein interface quantitatively account for the opposite effects of glycerol on the antibody-antigen association constants. Detailed characterization of local protein solvation in the free and associated protein states reveals how opposite solvent effects on protein-protein interactions depend on the extent of dewetting of the protein-protein contact region and on structural changes that alter cooperative solvent-protein interactions at the periphery of the protein-protein interface. These results demonstrate the direct relationship between macroscopic solvent effects on protein-protein interactions and atom-scale solvent-protein interactions, and establish a general methodology for predicting and understanding solvent effects on protein-protein interactions in diverse biological environments.

Temperature-dependent differences in mouse gut motility are mediated by stress.

Researchers have advocated elevating mouse housing temperatures from the conventional ~22 °C to the mouse thermoneutral point of 30 °C to enhance translational research. However, the impact of environmental temperature on mouse gastrointestinal physiology remains largely unexplored. Here we show that mice raised at 22 °C exhibit whole gut transit speed nearly twice as fast as those raised at 30 °C, primarily driven by a threefold increase in colon transit speed. Furthermore, gut microbiota composition differs between the two temperatures but does not dictate temperature-dependent differences in gut motility. Notably, increased stress signals from the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis at 22 °C have a pivotal role in mediating temperature-dependent differences in gut motility. Pharmacological and genetic depletion of the stress hormone corticotropin-releasing hormone slows gut motility in stressed 22 °C mice but has no comparable effect in relatively unstressed 30 °C mice. In conclusion, our findings highlight that colder mouse facility temperatures significantly increase gut motility through hormonal stress pathways.

Long-term evolution of human seasonal influenza virus A(H3N2) is associated with an increase in polymerase complex activity.

Since the influenza pandemic in 1968, influenza A(H3N2) viruses have become endemic. In this state, H3N2 viruses continuously evolve to overcome immune pressure as a result of prior infection or vaccination, as is evident from the accumulation of mutations in the surface glycoproteins hemagglutinin (HA) and neuraminidase (NA). However, phylogenetic studies have also demonstrated ongoing evolution in the influenza A(H3N2) virus RNA polymerase complex genes. The RNA polymerase complex of seasonal influenza A(H3N2) viruses produces mRNA for viral protein synthesis and replicates the negative sense viral RNA genome (vRNA) through a positive sense complementary RNA intermediate (cRNA). Presently, the consequences and selection pressures driving the evolution of the polymerase complex remain largely unknown. Here, we characterize the RNA polymerase complex of seasonal influenza A(H3N2) viruses representative of nearly 50 years of influenza A(H3N2) virus evolution. The H3N2 polymerase complex is a reassortment of human and avian influenza virus genes. We show that since 1968, influenza A(H3N2) viruses have increased the transcriptional activity of the polymerase complex while retaining a close balance between mRNA, vRNA, and cRNA levels. Interestingly, the increased polymerase complex activity did not result in increased replicative ability on differentiated human airway epithelial (HAE) cells. We hypothesize that the evolutionary increase in polymerase complex activity of influenza A(H3N2) viruses may compensate for the reduced HA receptor binding and avidity that is the result of the antigenic evolution of influenza A(H3N2) viruses.

Impact and cost-effectiveness of SARS-CoV-2 self-testing strategies in schools: a multicountry modelling analysis.

OBJECTIVES: To determine the most epidemiologically effective and cost-effective school-based SARS-CoV-2 antigen-detection rapid diagnostic test (Ag-RDT) self-testing strategies among teachers and students. DESIGN: Mathematical modelling and economic evaluation. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Simulated school and community populations were parameterised to Brazil, Georgia and Zambia, with SARS-CoV-2 self-testing strategies targeted to teachers and students in primary and secondary schools under varying epidemic conditions. INTERVENTIONS: SARS-CoV-2 Ag-RDT self-testing strategies for only teachers or teachers and students-only symptomatically or symptomatically and asymptomatically at 5%, 10%, 40% or 100% of schools at varying frequencies. OUTCOME MEASURES: Outcomes were assessed in terms of total infections and symptomatic days among teachers and students, as well as total infections and deaths within the community under the intervention compared with baseline. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were calculated for infections prevented among teachers and students. RESULTS: With respect to both the reduction in infections and total cost, symptomatic testing of all teachers and students appears to be the most cost-effective strategy. Symptomatic testing can prevent up to 69·3%, 64·5% and 75·5% of school infections in Brazil, Georgia and Zambia, respectively, depending on the epidemic conditions, with additional reductions in community infections. ICERs for symptomatic testing range from US$2 to US$19 per additional school infection averted as compared with symptomatic testing of teachers alone. CONCLUSIONS: Symptomatic testing of teachers and students has the potential to cost-effectively reduce a substantial number of school and community infections.

Determinants of epidemic size and the impacts of lulls in seasonal influenza virus circulation.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, levels of seasonal influenza virus circulation were unprecedentedly low, leading to concerns that a lack of exposure to influenza viruses, combined with waning antibody titres, could result in larger and/or more severe post-pandemic seasonal influenza epidemics. However, in most countries the first post-pandemic influenza season was not unusually large and/or severe. Here, based on an analysis of historical influenza virus epidemic patterns from 2002 to 2019, we show that historic lulls in influenza virus circulation had relatively minor impacts on subsequent epidemic size and that epidemic size was more substantially impacted by season-specific effects unrelated to the magnitude of circulation in prior seasons. From measurements of antibody levels from serum samples collected each year from 2017 to 2021, we show that the rate of waning of antibody titres against influenza virus during the pandemic was smaller than assumed in predictive models. Taken together, these results partially explain why the re-emergence of seasonal influenza virus epidemics was less dramatic than anticipated and suggest that influenza virus epidemic dynamics are not currently amenable to multi-season prediction.

Co-evolution of immunity and seasonal influenza viruses.

Seasonal influenza viruses cause recurring global epidemics by continually evolving to escape host immunity. The viral constraints and host immune responses that limit and drive the evolution of these viruses are increasingly well understood. However, it remains unclear how most of these advances improve the capacity to reduce the impact of seasonal influenza viruses on human health. In this Review, we synthesize recent progress made in understanding the interplay between the evolution of immunity induced by previous infections or vaccination and the evolution of seasonal influenza viruses driven by the heterogeneous accumulation of antibody-mediated immunity in humans. We discuss the functional constraints that limit the evolution of the viruses, the within-host evolutionary processes that drive the emergence of new virus variants, as well as current and prospective options for influenza virus control, including the viral and immunological barriers that must be overcome to improve the effectiveness of vaccines and antiviral drugs.

Mutual information networks reveal evolutionary relationships within the influenza A virus polymerase.

The influenza A (IAV) RNA polymerase is an essential driver of IAV evolution. Mutations that the polymerase introduces into viral genome segments during replication are the ultimate source of genetic variation, including within the three subunits of the IAV polymerase (PB2, PB1, and PA). Evolutionary analysis of the IAV polymerase is complicated, because changes in mutation rate, replication speed, and drug resistance involve epistatic interactions among its subunits. In order to study the evolution of the human seasonal H3N2 polymerase since the 1968 pandemic, we identified pairwise evolutionary relationships among ∻7000 H3N2 polymerase sequences using mutual information (MI), which measures the information gained about the identity of one residue when a second residue is known. To account for uneven sampling of viral sequences over time, we developed a weighted MI metric (wMI) and demonstrate that wMI outperforms raw MI through simulations using a well-sampled SARS-CoV-2 dataset. We then constructed wMI networks of the H3N2 polymerase to extend the inherently pairwise wMI statistic to encompass relationships among larger groups of residues. We included HA in the wMI network to distinguish between functional wMI relationships within the polymerase and those potentially due to hitchhiking on antigenic changes in HA. The wMI networks reveal coevolutionary relationships among residues with roles in replication and encapsidation. Inclusion of HA highlighted polymerase-only subgraphs containing residues with roles in the enzymatic functions of the polymerase and host adaptability. This work provides insight into the factors that drive and constrain the rapid evolution of influenza viruses.

Estimating the potential impact and diagnostic requirements for SARS-CoV-2 test-and-treat programs.

Oral antivirals have the potential to reduce the public health burden of COVID-19. However, now that we have exited the emergency phase of the COVID-19 pandemic, declining SARS-CoV-2 clinical testing rates (average testing rates = ≪10 tests/100,000 people/day in low- and-middle income countries; <100 tests/100,000 people/day in high-income countries; September 2023) make the development of effective test-and-treat programs challenging. We used an agent-based model to investigate how testing rates and strategies affect the use and effectiveness of oral antiviral test-to-treat programs in four country archetypes of different income levels and demographies. We find that in the post-emergency phase of the pandemic, in countries where low testing rates are driven by limited testing capacity, significant population-level impact of test-and-treat programs can only be achieved by both increasing testing rates and prioritizing individuals with greater risk of severe disease. However, for all countries, significant reductions in severe cases with antivirals are only possible if testing rates were substantially increased with high willingness of people to seek testing. Comparing the potential population-level reductions in severe disease outcomes of test-to-treat programs and vaccination shows that test-and-treat strategies are likely substantially more resource intensive requiring very high levels of testing (>>100 tests/100,000 people/day) and antiviral use suggesting that vaccination should be a higher priority.

Mutual information networks reveal evolutionary relationships within the influenza A virus polymerase.

The influenza A virus (IAV) RNA polymerase is an essential driver of IAV evolution. Mutations that the polymerase introduces into viral genome segments during replication are the ultimate source of genetic variation, including within the three subunits of the IAV polymerase (polymerase basic protein 2, polymerase basic protein 1, and polymerase acidic protein). Evolutionary analysis of the IAV polymerase is complicated, because changes in mutation rate, replication speed, and drug resistance involve epistatic interactions among its subunits. In order to study the evolution of the human seasonal H3N2 polymerase since the 1968 pandemic, we identified pairwise evolutionary relationships among ∼7000 H3N2 polymerase sequences using mutual information (MI), which measures the information gained about the identity of one residue when a second residue is known. To account for uneven sampling of viral sequences over time, we developed a weighted MI (wMI) metric and demonstrate that wMI outperforms raw MI through simulations using a well-sampled severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) dataset. We then constructed wMI networks of the H3N2 polymerase to extend the inherently pairwise wMI statistic to encompass relationships among larger groups of residues. We included hemagglutinin (HA) in the wMI network to distinguish between functional wMI relationships within the polymerase and those potentially due to hitch-hiking on antigenic changes in HA. The wMI networks reveal coevolutionary relationships among residues with roles in replication and encapsidation. Inclusion of HA highlighted polymerase-only subgraphs containing residues with roles in the enzymatic functions of the polymerase and host adaptability. This work provides insight into the factors that drive and constrain the rapid evolution of influenza viruses.