Pre-emptive TIPS in high-risk acute variceal bleeding. An updated and revised individual patient data meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: A previous individual patient data meta-analysis (IPD-MA) showed that compared with drugs+endoscopy, the placement of transjugular portosystemic shunt within 72 hours of admission (pre-emptive transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt: p-TIPS) increases the survival of high-risk patients (Child-Pugh B+ active bleeding and Child-Pugh C<14 points) with cirrhosis and acute variceal bleeding. However, the previous IPD-MA was not a two-stage meta-analysis, did not consider the potential risk of selection bias of observational studies, and did not include the most recent randomized clinical trial. We performed an updated and revised IPD-MA to reassess the efficacy of p-TIPS, addressing all previous issues. APPROACH AND RESULTS: We included all studies from the previous IPD-MA and searched for other possible eligible publications until September 2022. We performed a two-stage IPD-MA of data from 8 studies (4 randomized clinical trials and 4 observational). In addition, we performed a sensitivity analysis excluding those patients dying up to the first 72 hours after admission in the Drugs+Endoscopy arms of the 4 observational studies. The primary end point was the effects of p-TIPS versus Drugs+Endoscopy on 1-year survival.We identified 1389 patients (342 p-TIPS and 1047 Drugs+Endoscopy). The two-stage IPD-MA showed that p-TIPS significantly reduced the mortality in the overall population (HR=0·43, 95% CI: 0.32-0.60, p <0.001. This effect was observed in both subgroups of patients with Child-Pugh. The sensitivity analysis confirmed the survival benefit of p-TIPS. CONCLUSIONS: The updated two-stage IPD-MA confirms the significant survival advantage of p-TIPS in high-risk patients with cirrhosis and acute variceal bleeding. As a result, we recommend p-TIPS as the preferred first-choice treatment for these patients.

Geographic disparities in access to liver transplant for advanced cirrhosis: Time to ring the alarm!

Decompensated cirrhosis and hepatocellular cancer are major risk factors for mortality worldwide. Liver transplantation (LT), both live-donor LT or deceased-donor LT, are lifesaving, but there are several barriers toward equitable access. These barriers are exacerbated in the setting of critical illness or acute-on-chronic liver failure. Rates of LT vary widely worldwide but are lowest in lower-income countries owing to lack of resources, infrastructure, late disease presentation, and limited donor awareness. A recent experience by the Chronic Liver Disease Evolution and Registry for Events and Decompensation consortium defined these barriers toward LT as critical in determining overall survival in hospitalized cirrhosis patients. A major focus should be on appropriate, affordable, and early cirrhosis and hepatocellular cancer care to prevent the need for LT. Live-donor LT is predominant across Asian countries, whereas deceased-donor LT is more common in Western countries; both approaches have unique challenges that add to the access disparities. There are many challenges toward equitable access but uniform definitions of acute-on-chronic liver failure, improving transplant expertise, enhancing availability of resources and encouraging knowledge between centers, and preventing disease progression are critical to reduce LT disparities.

Mosaic HIV-1 vaccination induces anti-viral CD8+ T cell functionality in the phase 1/2a clinical trial APPROACH.

IMPORTANCE: The functionality of CD8+ T cells against human immunodeficiency virus-1 (HIV-1) antigens is indicative of HIV-progression in both animal models and people living with HIV. It is, therefore, of interest to assess CD8+ T cell responses in a prophylactic vaccination setting, as this may be an important component of the immune system that inhibits HIV-1 replication. T cell responses induced by the adenovirus serotype 26 (Ad26) mosaic vaccine regimen were assessed previously by IFN-γ ELISpot and flow cytometric assays, yet these assays only measure cytokine production but not the capacity of CD8+ T cells to inhibit replication of HIV-1. In this study, we demonstrate direct anti-viral function of the clinical Ad26 mosaic vaccine regimen through ex vivo inhibition of replication of diverse clades of HIV-1 isolates in the participant's own CD4+ T cells.

Quantifying the benefit of nonselective beta-blockers in the prevention of hepatic decompensation: A Bayesian reanalysis of the PREDESCI trial.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Beta-blockers have been studied for the prevention of variceal bleeding and, more recently, for the prevention of all-cause decompensation. Some uncertainties regarding the benefit of beta-blockers for the prevention of decompensation remain. Bayesian analyses enhance the interpretation of trials. The purpose of this study was to provide clinically meaningful estimates of both the probability and magnitude of the benefit of beta-blocker treatment across a range of patient types. APPROACH AND RESULTS: We undertook a Bayesian reanalysis of PREDESCI incorporating 3 priors (moderate neutral, moderate optimistic, and weak pessimistic). The probability of clinical benefit was assessed considering the prevention of all-cause decompensation. Microsimulation analyses were done to determine the magnitude of the benefit. In the Bayesian analysis, the probability that beta-blockers reduce all-cause decompensation was >0.93 for all priors. The Bayesian posterior hazard ratios (HR) for decompensation ranged from 0.50 (optimistic prior, 95% credible interval 0.27-0.93) to 0.70 (neutral prior, 95% credible interval 0.44-1.12). Exploring the benefit of treatment using microsimulation highlights substantial treatment benefits. For the neutral prior derived posterior HR and a 5% annual incidence of decompensation, at 10 years, an average of 497 decompensation-free years per 1000 patients were gained with treatment. In contrast, at 10 years 1639 years per 1000 patients were gained from the optimistic prior derived posterior HR and a 10% incidence of decompensation. CONCLUSIONS: Beta-blocker treatment is associated with a high probability of clinical benefit. This likely translates to a substantial gain in decompensation-free life years at the population level.

Neural network models for influenza forecasting with associated uncertainty using Web search activity trends.

Influenza affects millions of people every year. It causes a considerable amount of medical visits and hospitalisations as well as hundreds of thousands of deaths. Forecasting influenza prevalence with good accuracy can significantly help public health agencies to timely react to seasonal or novel strain epidemics. Although significant progress has been made, influenza forecasting remains a challenging modelling task. In this paper, we propose a methodological framework that improves over the state-of-the-art forecasting accuracy of influenza-like illness (ILI) rates in the United States. We achieve this by using Web search activity time series in conjunction with historical ILI rates as observations for training neural network (NN) architectures. The proposed models incorporate Bayesian layers to produce associated uncertainty intervals to their forecast estimates, positioning themselves as legitimate complementary solutions to more conventional approaches. The best performing NN, referred to as the iterative recurrent neural network (IRNN) architecture, reduces mean absolute error by 10.3% and improves skill by 17.1% on average in nowcasting and forecasting tasks across 4 consecutive flu seasons.

Synthetic Cell Armor Made of DNA Origami.

The bioengineering applications of cells, such as cell printing and multicellular assembly, are directly limited by cell damage and death due to a harsh environment. Improved cellular robustness thus motivates investigations into cell encapsulation, which provides essential protection. Here we target the cell-surface glycocalyx and cross-link two layers of DNA nanorods on the cellular plasma membrane to form a modular and programmable nanoshell. We show that the DNA origami nanoshell modulates the biophysical properties of cell membranes by enhancing the membrane stiffness and lowering the lipid fluidity. The nanoshell also serves as armor to protect cells and improve their viability against mechanical stress from osmotic imbalance, centrifugal forces, and fluid shear stress. Moreover, it enables mediated cell-cell interactions for effective and robust multicellular assembly. Our results demonstrate the potential of the nanoshell, not only as a cellular protection strategy but also as a platform for cell and cell membrane manipulation.

Characterizing the risk interplay between alcohol intake and body mass index on cirrhosis morbidity.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: It is thought that alcohol intake and body mass index (BMI) interact supra-additively to modulate the risk of cirrhosis, but evidence for this phenomenon is limited. We investigated the interrelationship between alcohol and BMI on the incidence of cirrhosis morbidity for participants of the United Kingdom Biobank (UKB) study. APPROACH AND RESULTS: The primary outcome was the cumulative incidence of cirrhosis morbidity, defined as a first-time hospital admission for cirrhosis (with noncirrhosis mortality incorporated as a competing risk). All UKB participants without a previous hospital admission for cirrhosis were included in the analysis. We determined the ratio of the 10-year cumulative incidence in harmful drinkers versus safe drinkers according to BMI. We also calculated the excess cumulative incidence at 10 years for individuals with obesity and/or harmful alcohol compared to safe drinkers with a healthy BMI of 20-25.0 kg/m2 . A total of 489,285 UK Biobank participants were included, with mean of 10.7 person-years' follow-up. A total of 2070 participants developed the primary outcome, equating to a crude cumulative incidence of 0.36% at 10 years (95% CI:0.34-0.38). The 10-year cumulative incidence was 8.6 times higher for harmful (1.38%) versus safe drinkers (0.16%) if BMI was healthy. Conversely, it was only 3.6 times higher for obese participants (1.99% vs. 0.56%). Excess cumulative incidence was 1.22% (95% CI:0.89-1.55) for harmful drinkers with a healthy BMI, 0.40% (95% CI:0.34-0.46) for obese individuals drinking at safe levels, and 1.83% (95% CI:1.46-2.20) for obese harmful drinkers (all compared to safe drinkers with a healthy BMI). CONCLUSIONS: Alcohol intake and obesity are independent risk factors for cirrhosis morbidity, but they do not interact supra-additively to modulate the cumulative incidence of this outcome.

Nasal flu vaccine: attitudes and perceptions of parents who use social media.

BACKGROUND/AIM: In October of 2020, a live attenuated Nasal Flu Vaccine (NFV) was licensed for the first time in Ireland for children aged 2&ndash17 years of age. The uptake of the NFV in Ireland was much lower than expected. The aim of this study was to determine the attitudes of Irish parents towards the NFV, and to examine the relationship between the perceptions of vaccines and the uptake rate. METHODS: An 18-question online questionnaire, developed through Qualtrics software®, was distributed via various social media platforms. Data were examined using SPSS to run associations using chi-squared tests. Free text boxes were assessed using thematic analysis. RESULTS: Of the 183 people who participated, 76% of parents had vaccinated their children. 81% of parents would vaccinate all their children, while 65% disagreed with vaccinating only children 5 years or older. The majority of parents agreed that the NFV was safe and effective. Analysis of the text included requests for alternative vaccine locations (22%), difficulties getting an appointment (6%), and a lack of public awareness of the vaccine campaign (19%). CONCLUSIONS: Parents are willing to have their children vaccinated but there are barriers to vaccination contributing to the low uptake of the NFV. Increasing the availability of the NFV in pharmacies and schools can increase uptake. Public health messaging around the availability of the NFV is excellent but a more succinct message is needed to highlight the importance of under 5s receiving the vaccine. Future studies should examine the promotion of the NFV by healthcare professionals and general practitioners' attitudes towards the NFV.

Introducing advanced paramedics into the rural general practice team in Ireland - general practitioners' attitudes.

INTRODUCTION: As Ireland's population increases and chronic disease becomes more prevalent, demand on limited general practice services will increase. Nursing roles within general practice are now considered to be standard, yet alternative non-medical professional roles are underexplored within an Irish context. Non-medical personnel such as Advanced Paramedics (APs) may have the capability to provide support to general practice. AIM: To explore GPs' attitudes and opinions about integrating Advanced Paramedics into rural general practice in Ireland. METHODS: A sequential explanatory mixed methodology was adopted. A questionnaire was designed and distributed to a purposeful sample of GPs attending a rural conference followed by semi-structured interviews. Data were recorded and transcribed verbatim and thematically analysed. RESULTS: In total, n=27 GPs responded to the survey and n=13 GPs were interviewed. Most GPs were familiar with APs and were receptive to the concept of closely collaborating with APs within a variety of settings, including out-of-hours services, home visits, nursing homes and even roles within the general practice surgery. DISCUSSION: GP and AP clinical practice dovetail within many facets of primary care and emergency care. GPs recognise that current rural models are unsustainable, and they realise the potential of integrating APs into the general practice team to help support and sustain the future of rural general practice services in Ireland. These interviews provided an exclusive, detailed insight into the world of general practice in Ireland that has not been previously documented in this way.

Self-monitoring for improving control of blood pressure in patients with hypertension: a Cochrane intervention review.

BACKGROUND: Hypertension is a major risk factor for cardiovascular events with only a minority of people treated to satisfactory levels. There is an increasing body of literature pertaining to the beneficial effect of self-blood pressure monitoring (SBPM) on blood pressure control in hypertensive patients. It is cost-effective, well tolerated, and has been shown to be a better predictor of end organ damage than traditional office blood pressure monitoring (OBPM). The aim of this Cochrane review is to provide an up-to-date assessment on the effectiveness of self-monitoring in the management of hypertension.Is SBPM more efficacious in reducing blood pressure, compared with OBPM or usual care?Is SBPM with additional supports more efficacious in reducing blood pressure, compared with no additional support?Are there any adverse events associated with SBPM, compared with OBPM or usual care? METHODS: All randomised controlled trials of adult patients with a diagnosis of primary hypertension where the intervention of interest is SBPM will be included. Data extraction, analysis and risk of bias assessment will be carried out by two independent authors. Analysis will be based on intention-to-treat (ITT) data from individual trials. RESULTS: Primary outcome measures include change in mean office systolic and/or diastolic BP, change in mean ambulatory blood pressure, the proportion of patients reaching target BP, and adverse events including mortality or cardiovascular morbidity or related to treatment with antihypertensive agents. DISCUSSION: This review will help to determine if self-monitoring of blood pressure, with or without co-interventions, is effective in lowering blood pressure. Results will be available for conference.

Towards an Integrated Blood Pressure Self-Monitoring SolutIoN for Stroke/TIA in Ireland: a mixed methods feasibility study for the TASMIN5S IRL randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Optimising Blood Pressure (BP) control is one of the most important modifiable risk factors in preventing subsequent stroke where the risk increases by one-third for every 10 mmHg rise in systolic BP. The aim of this study was to evaluate the feasibility and effects of BP self-monitoring in patients with a previous stroke or TIA in Ireland. METHODS: Patients with a history of stroke or TIA and sub-optimal BP control were identified from practice electronic medical records and invited to take part in the pilot study. Those with systolic BP >130 mmHg were randomised to a self-monitoring or usual care group. Self-monitoring involved monitoring BP twice a day for 3 days within a 7-day period every month, following text message reminders. Patients sent their BP readings by free-text to a digital platform. The monthly average BP was sent to the patient (traffic light system) and to the patient's GP after each monitoring period. Treatment escalation was subsequently agreed by the patient and GP. RESULTS: Of those identified, 47% (32/68) attended for assessment. Of those assessed, 15 were eligible for recruitment and were consented and randomised to the intervention or control group on a 2:1 basis. Of those randomised, 93% (14/15) completed the study with no adverse events. Systolic BP was lower in the intervention group at 12 weeks. CONCLUSIONS: TASMIN5S, an integrated blood pressure self-monitoring intervention in patients with a previous stroke or TIA, is feasible and safe to deliver in primary care. A pre-agreed three step medication titration plan was easily implemented, increased patient involvement in their care, and had no adverse effects.

Access to general practice during the COVID-19 pandemic - a cross-sectional view of the opinions of adults who use social media.

INTRODUCTION: The COVID-19 pandemic has had a significant impact on the health and wellbeing of people worldwide. General practices were forced to adapt to constantly changing circumstances, leading to predominance of virtual consultations. The aim of this study was to examine the impact the pandemic had on the ability of patients to access general practice. Other focuses included determining the nature of changes to appointment cancellations or delays and the level of disruption to long-term medication regimes during this period. METHODS: A 25-question online survey was administered using Qualtrics®. Adult patients of Irish general practices were recruited via social media between October 2020 and February 2021. The data were examined for associations between participant groupings and key findings using chi-squared tests. RESULTS: 670 persons participated. Half of all doctor-patient consultations during that time were completed virtually, predominantly via telephone. Overall, 497 (78%) participants accessed their healthcare teams as scheduled, and without disruption. 18% of participants (n=104) reported difficulty in accessing their long-term medications; those who were younger, and those who typically attend general practice on a quarterly or more basis, were associated most with this disruption (p<0.05; p<0.05). DISCUSSION: Despite the COVID-19 pandemic, Irish general practice has maintained its schedule for appointments in greater than three quarters of cases. There was a clear shift away from face-to-face consultations to telephone appointments. Maintaining the prescription of long-term medications for patients remains a challenge. Further work needs to be done to ensure the continuation of care and undisrupted medication schedules during any future pandemics.

Enhancing early career professionals' representation and engagement at international conferences: WONCA "Rural Early Career Ambassador Integration" project.

INTRODUCTION: International conferences offer an excellent opportunity for career development and are global academic opportunities with the potential to foster educational and professional growth. However, equitable access to participation and meaningful involvement in such events remains an issue. In this article we describe the novel Rural Early Career Ambassador Integration project and its implications for the 2022 World Rural Health Conference, held at the University of Limerick, Ireland. METHODS: The project offered vertical and cross-country collaborative opportunities to early career professionals with a passion for rural medicine. Three ambassadors of diverse nationalities, ethnicities and professional backgrounds were selected. They bore no personal cost for travel, transport or accommodation relating to the conference. Each ambassador was matched to and clinically shadowed an expert rural GP for a week preceding the conference, who provided mentorship. Mentors and ambassadors collaborated on goal-setting and work-planning throughout the conference, and were offered one-on-one career and networking support. The ambassadors were welcomed and integrated within a larger working party, the WONCA Working Party for Rural Health. RESULTS: The project was well received by conference delegates and organisers, and achieved its stated goal of enhancing conference equity through the representation and meaningful involvement of diverse early career professionals. Vertical and cross-country collaboration generated actionable policy implications as is evidenced by the ambassadors' co-authorship on the Limerick Declaration on Rural Healthcare. CONCLUSION: Although sponsorship for these initiatives remains a challenge, this project highlights the importance of actively including early career professionals at international conferences.

The Limerick Declaration on Rural Health Care 2022.

The 19th World Rural Health Conference, hosted in rural Ireland and the University of Limerick, with over 650 participants coming from 40 countries and an additional 1600 engaging online, has carefully considered how best rural communities can be empowered to improve their own health and the health of those around them. The conference also considered the role of national health systems and all stakeholders, in keeping with the commitments made through the Sustainable Development Goals and the enjoyment of the highest attainable standard of health as one of the fundamental rights of every human being. This conference declaration, the Limerick Declaration on Rural Healthcare, is designed to inform rural communities, academics and policymakers about how to achieve the goal of delivering high quality health care in rural and remote areas most effectively, with a particular focus on the Irish healthcare system. Congruent with current evidence and best international practice, the participants of the conference endorsed a series of recommendations for the creation of high quality, sustainable and cost-effective healthcare delivery for rural communities in Ireland and globally. The recommendations focused on four major themes: rural healthcare needs and delivery, rural workforce, advocacy and policy, and research for rural health care. Equal access to health care is a crucial marker of democracy. Hence, we call on all governments, policymakers, academic institutions and communities globally to commit to providing their rural dwellers with equitable access to health care that is properly resourced and fundamentally patient-centred in its design.

Carvedilol reduces the risk of decompensation and mortality in patients with compensated cirrhosis in a competing-risk meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Whether non-selective ß-blockers can prevent decompensation of cirrhosis warrants clarification. Carvedilol might be particularly effective since its intrinsic vasodilatory activity may ameliorate hepatic vascular resistance, a major mechanism of portal hypertension in early cirrhosis. We assessed whether carvedilol may prevent decompensation and improve survival in patients with compensated cirrhosis and clinically significant portal hypertension (CSPH). METHODS: By systematic review we identified randomized-controlled trials (RCTs) comparing carvedilol vs. control therapy (no-active treatment or endoscopic variceal ligation [EVL]) in patients with cirrhosis and CSPH without previous bleeding. We performed a competing-risk time-to-event meta-analysis using individual patient data (IPD) obtained from principal investigators of RCTs. Only compensated patients were included. Primary outcomes were prevention of decompensation (liver transplantation and death were competing events) and death (liver transplantation was a competing event). Models were adjusted using propensity scores for baseline covariates with the inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) approach. RESULTS: Among 125 full-text studies evaluated, 4 RCTs were eligible. The 4 provided IPD and were included, comprising 352 patients with compensated cirrhosis, 181 treated with carvedilol and 171 controls (79 received EVL and 92 placebo). Baseline characteristics were similar between groups. Standardized differences were <10% by IPTW. The risk of developing decompensation of cirrhosis was lower with carvedilol than in controls (subdistribution hazard ratio [SHR] 0.506; 95% CI 0.289-0.887; p = 0.017; I2 = 0.0%, Q-statistic-p = 0.880), mainly due to a reduced risk of ascites (SHR 0.491; 95% CI 0.247-0.974; p = 0.042; I2 = 0.0%, Q-statistic-p = 0.384). The risk of death was also lower with carvedilol (SHR 0.417; 95% CI 0.194-0.896; p = 0.025; I2 = 0.0%, Q-statistic-p = 0.989). CONCLUSIONS: Long-term carvedilol therapy reduced decompensation of cirrhosis and significantly improved survival in compensated patients with CSPH. This suggests that screening patients with compensated cirrhosis for CSPH to enable the prompt initiation of carvedilol could improve outcomes. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42019144786. LAY SUMMARY: The transition from compensated cirrhosis to decompensated cirrhosis is associated with markedly reduced life expectancy. Therefore, preventing decompensation in patients with compensated cirrhosis would be associated with greatly improved patient outcomes. There has been controversy regarding the use of non-selective ß-blockers (portal pressure-lowering medications) in patients with cirrhosis and elevated portal blood pressure (portal hypertension). Herein, using a competing-risk meta-analysis to optimize sample size and properly investigate cirrhosis as a multistate disease and outcomes as time-dependent events, we show that carvedilol (a non-selective ß-blocker) is associated with a reduced risk of decompensating events and improved survival in patients with cirrhosis and portal hypertension.

Population-level estimates of hepatitis C reinfection post scale-up of direct-acting antivirals among people who inject drugs.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Scale-up of highly effective direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) for HCV among people who inject drugs (PWID) in Scotland has led to a reduction in the prevalence of viraemia in this population. However, the extent of reinfection among those treated with DAAs remains uncertain. We estimated HCV reinfection rates among PWID in Scotland by treatment setting, pre- and post-introduction of DAAs, and the potential number of undiagnosed reinfections resulting from incomplete follow-up testing. METHODS: Through linkage of national clinical and laboratory HCV data, a retrospective cohort of PWID who commenced treatment between 2000-2018 and achieved a sustained virological response (SVR) were followed up for reinfection to December 2019. Reinfection was defined as a positive HCV antigen or RNA test. RESULTS: Of 5,686 SVRs among 5,592 PWID, 4,126 (73%) had an HCV RNA or antigen test post-SVR. Of those retested, we identified 361 reinfections (3.9/100 person-years [PY]). The reinfection rate increased from 1.5/100 PY among PWID treated in 2000-2009 to 8.8/100 PY in 2017-2018. The highest reinfection rates were observed among those treated in prison (14.3/100 PY) and community settings (9.5/100 PY). Among those treated in the DAA era (2015-2018), 68% were tested within the first year post-SVR but only 30% in the second year; while 169 reinfections were diagnosed in follow-up, an estimated 200 reinfections (54% of the estimated total) had gone undetected. CONCLUSIONS: HCV reinfection rates among PWID in Scotland have risen alongside the scale-up of DAAs and broadened access to treatment for those at highest risk, through delivery in community drug services. Promotion of HCV testing post-SVR among PWID is essential to ensure those reinfected are identified and retreated promptly. LAY SUMMARY: Increased rates of hepatitis C reinfection in Scotland were observed following the rapid scale-up of highly effective direct-acting antiviral (DAA) treatments among people who inject drugs. This demonstrates that community-based treatment pathways are reaching high-risk groups, regarded vital in efforts to eliminate the virus. However, we estimate that less than half of reinfections have been detected in the DAA era because of inadequate levels of retesting beyond the first year following successful treatment. Sustained efforts that involve high coverage of harm reduction measures and high uptake of annual testing are required to ensure prompt diagnosis and treatment of those reinfected if the goals of elimination are to be met.

Comparing Predicted Probability of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Patients With Cirrhosis With the General Population: An Opportunity to Improve Risk Communication?

INTRODUCTION: Risk scores estimating a patient's probability of a hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) diagnosis are abundant but are difficult to interpret in isolation. We compared the predicted HCC probability for individuals with cirrhosis and cured hepatitis C with the general population (GP). METHODS: All patients with cirrhosis achieving sustained viral response (SVR) in Scotland by April 2018 were included (N = 1,803). The predicted 3-year probability of HCC at time of SVR achievement was determined using the aMAP prognostic model. GP data on the total number of incident HCCs in Scotland, stratified by demographics, were obtained from Public Health Scotland. Predicted HCC risk of cirrhosis SVR patients was compared with GP incidence using 2 metrics: (i) incidence ratio: i.e., 3-year predicted probability for a given patient divided by the 3-year probability in GP for the equivalent demographic group and (ii) absolute risk difference: the 3-year predicted probability minus the 3-year probability in the GP. RESULTS: The mean predicted 3-year HCC probability among cirrhosis SVR patients was 3.64% (range: 0.012%-36.12%). Conversely, the 3-year HCC probability in the GP was much lower, ranging from <0.0001% to 0.25% depending on demographics. The mean incidence ratio was 410, ranging from 5 to >10,000. The mean absolute risk difference was 3.61%, ranging from 0.012% to 35.9%. An online HCC-GP comparison calculator for use by patients/clinicians is available at https://thrive-svr.shinyapps.io/RShiny/ . DISCUSSION: Comparing a patient's predicted HCC probability with the GP is feasible and may help clinicians communicate risk information and encourage screening uptake.

Viral adventitious agent detection using laser force cytology: Intrinsic cell property changes with infection and comparison to in vitro testing.

Adventitious agent testing in biomanufacturing requires assays of broad detection capability to screen for as many infectious agents as possible. The current gold standard for general infectious adventitious virus screening is the in vitro assay in which test articles are cultured onto a panel of different cell lines and observed for cytopathic effect (CPE). However, this assay is inherently subjective due to the nature of visual observation of cell morphology and labor and time intensive, requiring highly trained personnel to identify CPE. Laser force cytology (LFC) is an alternative, automated analytical method that uses a combination of optical and fluidic forces along with imaging to objectively and quantitatively assess CPE in cell culture. Importantly, because LFC uses no labels or antibodies, the assay is appropriate for general adventitious agent testing. Using LFC, changes in cellular features associated with virally infected cells were identified using principal component analysis. Using these features of infected cells, the sensitivity and earliness of detection with LFC was directly compared with the in vitro assay for a diverse panel of viruses incubated with chinese hamster ovary (CHO), Vero, and Medical Research Council cell strain 5 (MRC-5) cells. LFC detected viral infection with a sensitivity equal to the in vitro assay on average, but in certain virus and cell combinations including mouse minute virus (MMV) and reovirus 3 in CHO cells, detection was 4 days earlier and for MMV, the limit of detection was 10-fold lower. Overall, these results demonstrate the ability of LFC to serve as a biopharmaceutical adventitious agent testing methodology with sensitivity equivalent to the in vitro assay, but in an objective and automated manner.

Declining incidence of hepatitis C related hepatocellular carcinoma in the era of interferon-free therapies: A population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The impact of interferon (IFN)-free therapies on the epidemiology of hepatitis C virus (HCV) related hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is not well understood at a population level. Our goal was to bridge this evidence gap. METHODS: This study included all patients in Scotland with chronic HCV and a diagnosis of cirrhosis during 1999-2019. Incident cases of HCC, episodes of curative HCC therapy, and HCC-related deaths were identified through linkage to nationwide registries. Three time periods were examined: 1999-2010 (pegylated interferon-ribavirin [PIR]); 2011-2013 (First-generation DAA); and 2014-2019 (IFN-free era). We used regression modelling to determine time trends for (i) number diagnosed and living with HCV cirrhosis, (ii) HCC cumulative incidence, (iii) HCC curative treatment uptake and (iv) post-HCC mortality. RESULTS: 3347 cirrhosis patients were identified of which 381 (11.4%) developed HCC. After HCC diagnosis, 140 (36.7%) received curative HCC treatment and there were 202 deaths from HCC. The average annual number of patients diagnosed and living with HCV cirrhosis was approximately seven times higher in the IFN-free versus the PIR era, whereas the number of incident HCCs was four times higher. However, the cumulative incidence of HCC was significantly lower in the IFN-free versus PIR era (sdHR: 0.65; 95%CI:0.47-0.88; P = .006). Among HCC patients, diagnosis in the IFN-free era was not associated with improved uptake of curative treatment (aOR:1.18; 95%CI:0.69-2.01; P = .54), or reduced post-HCC mortality (sdHR: 0.74; 95%CI:0.53-1.05; P = .09). CONCLUSIONS: The cumulative incidence of HCC is declining in HCV cirrhosis patients, but uptake of curative HCC therapy and post-HCC survival remains suboptimal.

Access to general practice during COVID-19: a cross-sectional view of the opinions of adults who use social media.

Background/Aim: Since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, virtual consultations have become commonplace, and access to healthcare more complex. The study was designed to examine the impact COVID-19 has had on access to general practice care in Ireland. Methods: A 25-question online survey was designed in Qualtrics®. Adult patients of Irish general practices were recruited via social media between October 2020 and February 2021 and volunteered their opinions. Results: 670 persons participated. Half of all doctor-patient consultations were now completed virtually-predominantly via telephone. Overall, 497 (78%) participants accessed their healthcare teams as scheduled, and without disruption. 18% of participants (n=104) reported difficulty in accessing their long-term medications; those who are younger, and those who typically attend general practice quarterly or more, were associated most with this disruption (p<0.05). Fifty-nine instances where a new health concern was subject to an appointment cancellation or rescheduling were reported. Conclusions: Despite the COVID-19 pandemic, Irish general practice has maintained its schedule for appointments in 78% of cases despite the challenges of the pandemic. Half of consultations were provided virtually; teleconsultation use was very infrequent. Maintaining the supply chain for long-term medications for patients remains a challenge during a pandemic. Authors accept that study participants were confined to those who use social media. A protocol may need to be designed by each practice to optimize the continuation of care and of medication schedules during any future pandemics.