Effectiveness of locally produced ready-to-use supplementary foods on the prevention of stunting in children aged 6-23 months: a community-based trial from Pakistan.

Undernutrition is a major public health problem in developing countries. Around 40·2 % of children are stunted in Pakistan. This longitudinal study aimed to assess the effectiveness of locally produced ready-to-use supplementary foods in the prevention of stunting by detecting change in of children in intervention v. control arm against the 2006 WHO growth reference. A community-based non-randomised cluster-controlled trial was conducted from January 2018 to December 2020 in the district of Kurram, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan. A total of 80 clusters (each cluster comprising ≈ 250-300 households) were defined in the catchment population of twelve health facilities. Children aged 6-18 months were recruited n 1680. The intervention included a daily ration of 50 g - locally produced ready-to-use-supplementary food (Wawa-Mum). The main outcome of this study was a change in length for age z-score (LAZ) v. WHO growth standards. Comparison between the interventions was by t test and ANOVA. Cox proportional hazard models were used to assess the association between stunting occurrence and the utilisation of locally produced supplement. Out of the total 1680, fifty-one out of the total 1680, 51·1 out of the total 1680 and 51·1 % (n 859) were male. Mean age 13·9 months (sd + 859) were male. Mean age 13·9 months (sd + -4·4). At baseline, 36·9 % (n 618) were stunted. In the intervention group, mean LAZ score significantly increased from -1·13(2·2 sd) at baseline to -0·93(1·8 sd) at 6-month follow-up (P value 0·01) compared with the control group. The incidence rate of stunting in the intervention arm was 1·3 v. 3·4 per person year in the control arm. The control group had a significantly increased likelihood of stunting (Hazard Ratio (HR) 1·7, 95 % CI 1·46, 2·05, P value < 0·001) v. the intervention group. Locally produced ready-to-use supplementary food is an effective intervention for reducing stunting in children below 2 years of age. This can be provided as part of a malnutrition prevention package to overcome the alarming rates of stunting in Pakistan.

Failure to control conventional cardiovascular risk factors in women with type 2 diabetes might explain worse mortality.

INTRODUCTION: The standardised mortality rate (SMR) for people with diabetes in England is 1.5-1.7, with differences in outcomes between sexes. There has been little work examining the factors that could have an impact on this or on what may determine sex differences in outcome. METHODS: Data were extracted for patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D) in Salford (England) in 2010 for the years up to 2020, including any deaths recorded. Expected deaths were calculated from annual Office of National Statistics mortality rate and life expectancy by age and gender, adjusted for the local Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD). This provided the SMR deprivation (SMRd), and life expectancy years lost per death (LEYLD). The effects of treatment type, and clinical features on SMRd relative to sex were examined by univariable and multivariable analysis. RESULTS: Data from n = 11,806 (F = 5184; M = 6622) patients were included. Of these, n = 5540 were newly diagnosed and n = 3921 died (F = 1841; M = 2080). In total, n = 78,930 patient years. The expected deaths numbered n = 2596 (adjusted for age, sex, and IMD). Excess deaths were n = 1325 (F = 689; M = 636). Life expectancy years lost (LEYL) 18,989 (F = 9714; M = 9275). SMRd 1.51 (F = 1.60; M = 1.44) and LEYLD 4.84 years (F = 5.28; M = 4.46). The impact of risk factors was not different by sex. However, women had higher prevalence of % diagnosed >65 years of age; % last eGFR <60 mLs/min/1.73 m2 , and lower prevalence of % prescribed ACE-inhibitor/ARB, DPP4-inhibitor and SGLT2-inhibitor. Applying the male prevalence rate to the female population and expected mortality suggested n = 437 (55%) of excess T2D female deaths were attributed to sex difference in the prevalence of these risk and protective factors. CONCLUSIONS: Outcomes in women with T2DM are worse than in men, contributed to by greater prevalence of adverse factors and less prescribing of cardioprotective medication.

Evaluation of thyroid function monitoring in people treated with lithium: Advice based on real-world data.

INTRODUCTION: Blood test monitoring is essential for the management of lithium treatment and National Institute for Health and Care Excellence guidance recommends 6-monthly serum testing of thyroid function. We examined conformity to these guidelines and the impact of monitoring outside these intervals. METHODS: We extracted serum lithium and thyroid hormone results at one centre between January 2009 and December 2020. We identified 266 patients who started lithium during this period with no history of thyroid abnormality within the previous 2 years and were at risk of developing thyroid abnormalities. We examined the interval between tests, time between onset of lithium testing and first thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH) outside the laboratory reference range and assessed impact of testing outside recommended 6-monthly intervals. RESULTS: The most common testing frequency was 3 months (±1 month), accounting for 17.3% of test intervals. Kaplan-Meier analysis showed that most thyroid dysfunction manifests within 3 years (proportion with abnormal TSH at 3 years = 91.4%, 19.9% of total patients). In the first 3 months after commencing lithium therapy, eight patients developed subclinical hypothyroidism and had clinical follow-up data available. Of these, half spontaneously normalized without clinical intervention. In the remaining patients, thyroxine replacement was only initiated after multiple occasions of subclinical hypothyroidism (median = 2 years after initiating lithium, range: 6 months to 3 years). CONCLUSION: The peak interval at 3 months suggests that thyroid function is frequently checked at the same time as serum lithium, indicating too frequent testing. Our data support the recommended 6-monthly testing interval and highlight poor adherence to it.

Diabetes foot complications and standardized mortality rate in type 2 diabetes.

AIM: To quantify the impact of foot complications on mortality outcomes in people with type 2 diabetes (T2D), and how routinely measured factors might modulate that risk. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Data for individuals with T2D for 2010-2020, from the Salford Integrated Care Record (Salford, UK), were extracted for laboratory and clinical data, and deaths. Annual expected deaths were taken from Office of National Statistics mortality data. An index of multiple deprivation (IMD) adjusted the standardized mortality ratio (SMR_IMD). Life years lost per death (LYLD) was estimated from the difference between expected and actual deaths. RESULTS: A total of 11 806 T2D patients were included, with 5583 new diagnoses and 3921 deaths during 2010-2020. The number of expected deaths was 2135; after IMD adjustment, there were 2595 expected deaths. Therefore, excess deaths numbered 1326 (SMR_IMD 1.51). No foot complications were evident in n = 9857. This group had an SMR_IMD of 1.13 and 2.74 LYLD. In total, 2979 patients had any foot complication recorded. In this group, the SMD_IMR was 2.29; of these, 2555 (75%) had only one foot complication. Patients with a foot complication showed little difference in percentage HbA1c more than 58 mmol/mol. In multivariate analysis, for those with a foot complication and an albumin-to-creatinine ratio of more than 3 mg/mmol, the odds ratio (OR) for death was 1.93, and for an estimated glomerular filtration rate of less than 60 mL/min/1.73m2 , the OR for death was 1.92. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with T2D but without a foot complication have an SMR_IMD that is only slightly higher than that of the general population. Those diagnosed with a foot complication have a mortality risk that is double that of those without T2D.

Impact of Bariatric Surgery on Subtilisin/Kexin Type 9 (PCSK9) Gene Expression and Inflammation in the Adipose Tissue of Obese Diabetic Rats.

Bariatric surgery improves dyslipidaemia and reduces body weight, but it remains unclear how bariatric surgery modulates gene expression in fat cells to influence the proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9 (PCSK-9) and low-density lipoprotein receptor (LDLR) gene expression. The expression of the PCSK9/LDLR/tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNFα) gene in adipose tissue was measured in two groups of Zucker Diabetic Sprague Dawley (ZDSD) rats after Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (RYGB) surgery or 'SHAM' operation. There was lower PCSK9 (p = 0.02) and higher LDLR gene expression (p = 0.02) in adipose tissue in rats after RYGB. Weight change did not correlate with PCSK9 gene expression (r = -0.5, p = 0.08) or TNFα gene expression (r = -0.4, p = 0.1). TNFα gene expression was positively correlated with PCSK9 gene expression (r = 0.7, p = 0.001) but not correlated with LDLR expression (r = -0.3, p = 0.3). Circulating triglyceride levels were lower in RYGB compared to the SHAM group (1.1 (0.8-1.4) vs. 1.5 (1.0-4.2), p = 0.038) mmol/L with no difference in cholesterol levels. LDLR gene expression was increased post-bariatric surgery with the potential to reduce the number of circulating LDL particles. PCSK9 gene expression and TNFα gene expression were positively correlated after RYGB in ZDSD rats, suggesting that the modulation of pro-inflammatory pathways in adipose tissue after RYGB may partly relate to PCSK9 and LDLR gene expression.

Saving the foot: Simple orthopaedic surgical intervention demonstrates improved outcomes and reduced costs.

BACKGROUND: Forefoot ulceration in diabetes requires significant resources, with high cost and low rates of success. The authors present the results of tendon procedures (percutaneous toe tenotomy and percutaneous tendo-achilles lengthening) under local anaesthetic to adjust mechanics in patients with diabetic neuropathic forefoot ulceration. METHODS: Retrospective review of electronic patient record of 19 patients (22 feet) undergoing local anaesthetic tendon procedures between April 2019 and April 2021 with a 12 month follow up period. Size of ulcer, rate of ulcer healing, complication rates and ulcer recurrence were recorded and compared to a population of conservatively-managed patients (14 patients, 15 feet) treated prior to the introduction of tendon procedures. All clinical information obtained from electronic patient records. RESULTS: All patients undergoing tendon procedures achieved complete ulcer healing at a mean time of 3.3 weeks for toe tip ulcers (after toe tenotomy) and 4.5 weeks for metatarsal head ulcers (after Achilles lengthening). There were no admissions for diabetic foot sepsis, reduced recurrence, reduced amputation rates and no mortality. Of the conservatively managed cohort, only 3 of the 15 achieved ulcer resolution without recurrence within the 12 month study period. The cohort managed conservatively had an average cost of £ 9902 per patient, per annum. The intervention cost was £ 1211 per patient, saving an average of £ 8691 per patient, per annum with ulcer resolution (88 % reduction in costs). CONCLUSION: Significant patient benefit, reduction in resource use and cost saving was seen with this simple intervention, which merits full evaluation in a clinical trial. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Level-IV.

The change in glycaemic control immediately after COVID-19 vaccination in people with type 1 diabetes.

AIMS: Evidence suggests that some people with type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) experience temporary instability of blood glucose (BG) levels after COVID-19 vaccination. We aimed to assess this objectively. METHODS: We examined the interstitial glucose profile of 97 consecutive adults (age ≥ 18 years) with T1DM using the FreeStyle Libre® flash glucose monitor in the periods immediately before and after their first COVID-19 vaccination. The primary outcome measure was percentage (%) interstitial glucose readings within the target range 3.9-10 mmol/L for 7 days prior to the vaccination and the 7 days after the vaccination. Data are mean ± standard error. RESULTS: There was a significant decrease in the % interstitial glucose on target (3.9-10.0) for the 7 days following vaccination (mean 52.2% ± 2.0%) versus pre-COVID-19 vaccination (mean 55.0% ± 2.0%) (p = 0.030). 58% of individuals with T1DM showed a reduction in the 'time in target range' in the week after vaccination. 30% showed a decrease of time within the target range of over 10%, and 10% showed a decrease in time within target range of over 20%. The change in interstitial glucose proportion on target in the week following vaccination was most pronounced for people taking metformin/dapagliflozin + basal bolus insulin (change -7.6%) and for people with HbA1c below the median (change -5.7%). CONCLUSION: In T1DM, we have shown that initial COVID-19 vaccination can cause temporary perturbation of interstitial glucose, with this effect more pronounced in people talking oral hypoglycaemic medication plus insulin, and when HbA1c is lower.

Trends in costs and prescribing for liothyronine and levothyroxine in England and wales 2011-2020.

INTRODUCTION: Recent prescribing policies in England and Wales have imposed significant restrictions on liothyronine prescribing in general practice driven by the prohibitive costs and uncertain benefits of liothyronine in the management of hypothyroidism. However, the impact of these policies on liothyronine usage and costs is still unclear. METHODS: Data were downloaded from the NHS monthly General Practice Prescribing Data in England and from the Comparative Analysis System for Prescribing Audit (CASPA) in Wales for 2011-2020. Trends over the period in amount and costs of levothyroxine and liothyronine prescribing were analysed. RESULTS: The total medication costs per year for England Wales for hypothyroidism rose from £60.8 million to £129.8 million in 2015-16 and have since reduced to £88.4 million. Levothyroxine prescriptions have been growing above the population growth rate at 0.7%/annum in England and 1.1% in Wales. The costs/patient/year for liothyronine rose from £550 to £3000 in 2015-16 and has since fallen to £2500. Use of liothyronine as a percentage of levothyroxine started to fall in 2015-16 at 7%/annum in England and 3% in Wales. Nevertheless, 0.5% of levothyroxine-treated patients continue to receive liothyronine. All Clinical Commission Groups (CCGs) in England continue to have at least one liothyronine prescribing practice and 48.5% of English general practices prescribed liothyronine in 2019-20. CONCLUSION: In spite of strenuous attempts to limit prescribing of liothyronine in general practice, a significant number of patients continue to receive this therapy. The price differential of liothyronine vs levothyroxine should be examined again in light of the continuing use of liothyronine.

Lessons learnt from the variation across 6741 family/general practices in England in the use of treatments for hypogonadism.

INTRODUCTION: We have previously reported rates of diagnosis of male hypogonadism in United Kingdom (UK) general practices. We aimed to identify factors associated with testosterone prescribing in UK general practice. METHODS: We determined for 6741 general practices in England, the level of testosterone prescribing in men and the relation between volume of testosterone prescribing and (1) demographic characteristics of the practice, (2) % patients with specific comorbidities and (3) national GP patient survey results. RESULTS: The largest volume (by prescribing volume) agents were injectable preparations at a total cost in the 12-month period 2018/19 of £8,172,519 with gel preparations in second place: total cost £4,795,057. Transdermal patches, once the only alternative to testosterone injections or implants, were little prescribed: total cost £222,022. The analysis accounted for 0.27 of the variance in testosterone prescribing between general practices. Thus, most of this variance was not accounted for by the analysis. There was a strong univariant relation (r = .95, P < .001) between PDE5-I prescribing and testosterone prescribing. Other multivariant factors independently linked with more testosterone prescribing were as follows: HIGHER proportion of men with type 2 diabetes(T2DM) on target control (HbA1c ≤ 58 mmol/mol) and HIGHER overall practice rating on the National Patient Survey for good experience, while non-white ethnicity and socio-economic deprivation were associated with less testosterone prescribing. There were a number of comorbidity factors associated with less prescribing of testosterone (such as T2DM, hypertension and stroke/TIA). CONCLUSION: Our analysis has indicated that variation between general practices in testosterone prescribing in a well developed health economy is only related to small degree (r2  = 0.27) to factors that we can define. This suggests that variation in amount of testosterone prescribed is largely related to general practitioner choice/other factors not studied and may be amenable to measures to increase knowledge/awareness of male hypogonadism, with implications for men's health.

Mortality in 98 type 1 diabetes mellitus and type 2 diabetes mellitus: Foot ulcer location is an independent risk determinant.

INTRODUCTION: We previously demonstrated in both a longitudinal study and in meta-analysis (pooled relative-risk RR, 2.45) that all-cause mortality is significantly higher in people with diabetes foot ulceration (DFU) than with those without a foot ulcer. In this prospective study, we looked at the factors linked to mortality after presentation to podiatry with DFU. METHODS: Ninety-eight individuals recruited consecutively from the Salford Royal Hospital Multidisciplinary Foot Clinic in Spring 2016 were followed up for up to 48 months. Data concerning health outcomes were extracted from the electronic patient record (EPR). RESULTS: Seventeen people (17) had type 1 diabetes mellitus, and 81 had type 2 diabetes mellitus. Thirty-one were women. The mean age (range) was 63.6 (28-90) years with maximum diabetes duration 45 years. Mean HbA1c was 72 (95% CI: 67-77) mmol/mol; 97% had neuropathy (International Working Group on the Diabetic Foot (IWGDF) monofilament); 62% had vascular insufficiency (Doppler studies); 69% of ulcers were forefoot, and 23% of ulcers were hind foot in location. Forty of 98 (40%) patients died in follow-up with 27% of death certificates including sepsis (not foot-related) and 35% renal failure as cause of death. Multivariate regression analysis indicated a 6.3 (95% CI: 3.9-8.1) fold increased risk of death with hind foot ulcer, independent of age/BMI/gender/HbA1c/eGFR/total cholesterol level. CONCLUSION: This prospective study has indicated a very high long-term mortality rate in individuals with DFU, greater for those with a hind foot ulcer and shown a close relation between risk of sepsis/renal failure and DFU mortality, highlighting again the importance of addressing all risk factors as soon as people present with a foot ulcer.

Genetically defined favourable adiposity is not associated with a clinically meaningful difference in clinical course in people with type 2 diabetes but does associate with a favourable metabolic profile.

AIMS: Change in weight, HbA1c , lipids, blood pressure and cardiometabolic events over time is variable in individuals with type 2 diabetes. We hypothesised that people with a genetic predisposition to a more favourable adiposity distribution could have a less severe clinical course/progression. METHODS: We involved people with type 2 diabetes from two UK-based cohorts: 11,914 individuals with GP follow-up data from the UK Biobank and 723 from Salford. We generated a 'favourable adiposity' genetic score and conducted cross-sectional and longitudinal studies to test its association with weight, BMI, lipids, blood pressure, medication use and risk of myocardial infarction and stroke using 15 follow-up time points with 1-year intervals. RESULTS: The 'favourable adiposity' genetic score was cross-sectionally associated with higher weight (effect size per 1 standard deviation higher genetic score: 0.91 kg [0.59,1.23]) and BMI (0.30 kg/m2 [0.19,0.40]), but higher high-density lipoprotein (0.02 mmol/L [0.01,0.02]) and lower triglycerides (-0.04 mmol/L [-0.07, -0.02]) in the UK Biobank at baseline, and this pattern of association was consistent across follow-up. There was a trend for participants with higher 'favourable adiposity' genetic score to have lower risk of myocardial infarction and/or stroke (odds ratio 0.79 [0.62, 1.00]) compared to those with lower score. A one standard deviation higher score was associated with lower odds of using lipid-lowering (0.91 [0.86, 0.97]) and anti-hypertensive medication (0.95 [0.91, 0.99]). CONCLUSIONS: In individuals with type 2 diabetes, having more 'favourable adiposity' alleles is associated with a marginally better lipid profile long-term and having lower odds of requiring lipid-lowering or anti-hypertensive medication in spite of relatively higher adiposity.

Serum lithium test requesting across three UK regions: an evaluation of adherence to monitoring guidelines.

BACKGROUND: Bipolar disorder is the fourth most common mental health condition, affecting ~ 1% of UK adults. Lithium is an effective treatment for prevention of relapse and hospital admission, and is widely recommended as a first-line treatment. We previously showed in other areas that laboratory testing patterns are variable with sub-optimal conformity to guidance. We therefore examined lithium results and requesting patterns relative to monitoring recommendations. METHODS: Data on serum lithium levels and intervals between requests were extracted from Clinical Biochemistry laboratory information systems at the University Hospitals of North Midlands, Salford Royal Foundation Trust and Pennine Acute Hospitals from 2012 to 2018 (46,555 requests; 3371 individuals). Data were examined with respect to region/source of request, age and sex. RESULTS: Across all sites, lithium levels on many requests were outside the recommended UK therapeutic range (0.4-0.99 mmol/L); 19.2% below the range and 6.1% above the range (median [Li]: 0.60 mmol/L). A small percentage were found at the extremes (3.2% at < 0.1 mmol/L, 1.0% at ≥1.4 mmol/L). Most requests were from general practice (56.3%) or mental health units (34.4%), though those in the toxic range (≥1.4 mmol/L) were more likely to be from secondary care (63.9%). For requesting intervals, there was a distinct peak at 12 weeks, consistent with guidance for those stabilised on lithium therapy. There was no peak at 6 months, as recommended for those aged < 65 years on unchanging therapy, though re-test intervals in this age group were more likely to be longer. There was a peak at 0-7 days, reflecting those requiring closer monitoring (e.g. treatment initiation, toxicity). However, for those with initial lithium concentrations within the BNF range (0.4-0.99 mmol/L), 69.4% of tests were requested outside expected testing frequencies. CONCLUSIONS: Our data showed: (a) lithium levels are often maintained at the lower end of the recommended therapeutic range, (b) patterns of lithium results and testing frequency were comparable across three UK sites with differing models of care and, (c) re-test intervals demonstrate a noticeable peak at the recommended 3-monthly, but not at 6-monthly intervals. Many tests were repeated outside expected frequencies, indicating the need for measures to minimise inappropriate testing.

How fast should social restrictions be eased in England as COVID-19 vaccinations are rolled out?

INTRODUCTION: Vaccination against the COVID-19 virus began in December 2020 in the UK and into Spring 2021 has been running at 5% population/week. High levels of social restrictions were implemented for the third time in January 2021 to control the second wave and resulting increases in hospitalisations and deaths. Easing those restrictions must balance multiple challenging priorities, weighing the risk of more deaths and hospitalisations against damage done to mental health, incomes and standards of living, education and provision of non-Covid-19 healthcare. METHODS: Weekly and monthly officially published data for 2020/21 were used to estimate the influence of seasonality and social restrictions on the spread of COVID-19 by age group, on the economy and on healthcare services. These factors were combined with the estimated impact of vaccinations and immunity from past infections into a model that retrospectively reflected the actual numbers of reported deaths closely both in 2020 and early 2021. The model was applied prospectively to the next 6 months to evaluate the impact of different speeds of easing social restrictions. RESULTS: The results show vaccinations as significantly reducing the number of hospitalisations and deaths. The central estimate is that relative to rapid easing, the avoided loss of 57 000 life-years from a strategy of relatively slow easing over the next several  months comes at a cost in terms of GDP reduction of around £0.4 million/life-year loss avoided. This is over 10 times higher than the usual limit the NHS uses for spending against Quality Adjusted Life Years (QALYs) saved. Alternative assumptions for key factors affecting the spread of the virus give significantly different trade-offs between costs and benefits of different speeds of easing. Disruption of non-Covid-19 Healthcare provision also increases in times of higher levels of social restrictions. CONCLUSION: In most cases, the results favour a somewhat faster easing of restrictions in England than current policy implies.

"Stay at Home, Protect the National Health Service, Save Lives": A cost benefit analysis of the lockdown in the United Kingdom.

INTRODUCTION: The COVID-19 pandemic has transformed lives across the world. In the UK, a public health driven policy of population "lockdown" has had enormous personal and economic impact. METHODS: We compare UK response and outcomes with European countries of similar income and healthcare resources. We calibrate estimates of the economic costs as different % loss in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) against possible benefits of avoiding life years lost, for different scenarios where current COVID-19 mortality and comorbidity rates were used to calculate the loss in life expectancy and adjusted for their levels of poor health and quality of life. We then apply a quality-adjusted life years (QALY) value of £30,000 (maximum under national guidelines). RESULTS: There was a rapid spread of cases and significant variation both in severity and timing of both implementation and subsequent reductions in social restrictions. There was less variation in the trajectory of mortality rates and excess deaths, which have fallen across all countries during May/June 2020. The average age at death and life expectancy loss for non-COVID-19 was 79.1 and 11.4 years, respectively, while COVID-19 were 80.4 and 10.1 years; including adjustments for life-shortening comorbidities and quality of life plausibly reduces this to around 5 QALY lost for each COVID-19 death. The lowest estimate for lockdown costs incurred was 40% higher than highest benefits from avoiding the worst mortality case scenario at full life expectancy tariff and in more realistic estimations they were over 5 times higher. Future scenarios showed in the best case a QALY value of £220k (7xNICE guideline) and in the worst-case £3.7m (125xNICE guideline) was needed to justify the continuation of lockdown. CONCLUSION: This suggests that the costs of continuing severe restrictions are so great relative to likely benefits in lives saved that a rapid easing in restrictions is now warranted.

Modelling the impact of the mandatory use of face coverings on public transport and in retail outlets in the UK on COVID-19-related infections, hospital admissions and mortality.

INTRODUCTION: The rapid spread of the pandemic caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2/)(COVID-19) virus resulted in governments around the world instigating a range of measures, including mandating the wearing of face coverings on public transport/in retail outlets. METHODS: We developed a sequential assessment of the risk reduction provided by face coverings using a step-by-step approach. The UK Office of National Statistics (ONS) Population Survey data were utilised to determine the baseline total number of community-derived infections. These were linked to reported hospital admissions/hospital deaths to create case admission risk ratio and admission-related fatality rate. We evaluated published evidence to establish an infection risk reduction for face coverings. We calculated an Infection Risk Score (IRS) for a number of common activities and related it to the effectiveness of reducing infection and its consequences, with a face covering, and evaluated their effect when applied to different infection rates over 3 months from July 24, 2020, when face coverings were made compulsory in England on public transport/retail outlets. RESULTS: We show that only 7.3% of all community-based infection risk is associated with public transport/retail outlets. In the week of July 24, The reported weekly community infection rate was 29 400 new cases at the start (July 24). The rate of growth in hospital admissions and deaths for England was around -15%/week, suggesting the infection rate, R, in the most vulnerable populations was just above 0.8. In this situation, average infections over the evaluated 13 week follow-up period, would be 9517/week with face covering of 40% effectiveness, thus, reducing average infections by 844/week, hospital admissions by 8/week and deaths by 0.6/week; a fall of 9% over the period total. If, however, the R-value rises to 1.0, then, average community infections would stay at 29 400/week and mandatory face coverings could reduce average weekly infections by 3930, hospital admissions by 36 and deaths by 2.9/week; a 13% reduction. If the R-value rose and stayed at 1.2, then, expected average community-derived hospital admissions would be 975/week and 40% effective face coverings would reduce this by 167/week and reduce possible expected hospital deaths from 80/week to 66/week. These reductions should be seen in the context that there was an average of 102 000/week all-cause hospital emergency admissions in England in June and 8900 total reported deaths in the week ending August 7, 2020. CONCLUSION: We have illustrated that the policy on mandatory use of face coverings in retail outlets/on public transport may have been very well followed, but may be of limited value in reducing hospital admissions and deaths, at least at the time that it was introduced, unless infections begin to rise faster than currently seen. The impact appears small compared with all other sources of risk, thereby raising questions regarding the effectiveness of the policy.

Liothyronine and levothyroxine prescribing in England: A comprehensive survey and evaluation.

INTRODUCTION: The approach to thyroid hormone replacement varies across centres, but the extent and determinants of variation is unclear. We evaluated geographical variation in levothyroxine (LT4) and liothyronine (LT3) prescribing across General Practices in England and analysed the relationship of prescribing patterns to clinical and socioeconomic factors. METHODS: Data was downloaded from the NHS monthly General Practice Prescribing Data in England for the period 2011-2020. RESULTS: The study covered a population of 19.4 million women over 30 years of age, attending 6,660 GP practices and being provided with 33.7 million prescriptions of LT4 and LT3 at a total cost of £90million/year. Overall, 0.5% of levothyroxine treated patients continue to receive liothyronine. All Clinical Commission Groups (CCGs) in England continue to have at least one liothyronine prescribing practice and 48.5% of English general practices prescribed liothyronine in 2019-2020. Factors strongly influencing more levothyroxine prescribing (model accounted for 62% of variance) were the CCG to which the practice belonged and the proportion of people with diabetes registered on the practice list plus antidepressant prescribing, with socioeconomic disadvantage associated with less levothyroxine prescribing. Whereas factors that were associated with increased levels of liothyronine prescribing (model accounted for 17% of variance), were antidepressant prescribing and % of type 2 diabetes mellitus individuals achieving HbA1c control of 58 mmol/mol or less. Factors that were associated with reduced levels of liothyronine prescribing included smoking and higher obesity rates. CONCLUSION: In spite of strenuous attempts to limit prescribing of liothyronine in general practice a significant number of patients continue to receive this therapy, although there is significant geographical variation in the prescribing of this as for levothyroxine, with specific general practice and CCG-related factors influencing prescribing of both levothyroxine and liothyronine across England.

Inadequate postpartum screening for type 2 diabetes in women with previous gestation diabetes mellitus: A retrospective audit of practice over 17 years.

INTRODUCTION: Women with gestational diabetes (GDM) are at greatly increased risk of type 2 diabetes (T2DM). The UK guidance recommends screening for T2DM at around 6-week postpartum and annually thereafter. We evaluated conformity to this guidance in two separate time periods. METHODS: The proportion of tests performed within guidance was assessed using longitudinal plasma glucose and glycated haemoglobin data in two cohorts (1999-2007, n = 251; 2015-2016, n = 260) from hospital records on women previously diagnosed with GDM. RESULTS: In the 1999-2007 and 2015-2016 cohorts, 59.8% and 35.0% of women had the recommended postpartum testing, respectively (P < .001); just 13.5% and 14.2%, respectively, underwent the first annual test on time. During long-term follow-up of the 1999-2007 cohort (median follow-up: 12.3 years), the proportion of women tested in any given year averaged 34.2% over a 17-year period; there was a progressive decline in the proportion of women receiving a yearly test with time since delivery (P = .002). Over the follow-up period, 85 women from the 1999-2007 cohort developed blood test results in the diabetic range with a median time to presumed DM diagnosis of 5.2 years (range 0.11-15.95 years). Kaplan-Meier analysis showed that 18.8% of women had blood test results in the diabetes range by 5-year postpartum and 37.8% by 10-year postpartum. CONCLUSIONS: Despite high profile guidelines and a clear clinical rationale to screen women with a past diagnosis of GDM, many women did not receive adequate screening for T2DM both in the short term and long term. This suggests that alternative approaches are needed to ensure effective follow-up of this high-risk group. To have an impact, interventions need to be tailored to a young, generally healthy group in which traditional approaches to follow-up may not be best suited.

Analysis of continuous glucose tracking data in people with type 1 diabetes after COVID-19 vaccination reveals unexpected link between immune and metabolic response, augmented by adjunctive oral medication.

INTRODUCTION: The COVID-19 vaccination programme is under way worldwide. Anecdotal evidence is increasing that some people with type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) experience temporary instability of blood glucose (BG) levels post-vaccination which normally settles within 2-3 days. We report an analysis of BG profiles of 20 individuals before/after vaccination. METHODS: We examined the BG profile of 20 consecutive adults (18 years of age or more) with T1DM using the FreeStyle Libre flash glucose monitor in the period immediately before and after COVID-19 vaccination. The primary outcome measure was percentage (%) BG readings in the designated target range 3.9-10 mmmol/L as reported on the LibreView portal for 7 days prior to the vaccination (week -1) and the 7 days after the vaccination (week +1). RESULTS: There was a significant decrease in the %BG on target following the COVID-vaccination for the 7 days following vaccination (mean 45.2% ± SE 4.2%) vs pre-COVID-19 vaccination (mean 52.6% ± SE 4.5%). This was mirrored by an increase in the proportion of readings in other BG categories 10.1%-13.9%/≥14%. There was no significant change in BG variability in the 7days post-COVID-19 vaccination. This change in BG proportion on target in the week following vaccination was most pronounced for people taking Metformin/Dapagliflozin+basal-bolus insulin (-23%) vs no oral hypoglycaemic agents (-4%), and median age <53 vs ≥53 years (greater reduction in %BG in target for older individuals (-18% vs -9%)). CONCLUSION: In T1DM, we have shown that COVID-19 vaccination can cause temporary perturbation of BG, with this effect more pronounced in patients talking oral hypoglycaemic medication plus insulin, and in older individuals. This may also have consequences for patients with T2DM who are currently not supported by flash glucose monitoring.

Is there a role for natural desiccated thyroid in the treatment of levothyroxine unresponsive hypothyroidism? Results from a consecutive case series.

INTRODUCTION: Some levothyroxine unresponsive individuals with hypothyroidism are prescribed a natural desiccated thyroid (NDT) preparation such as Armour Thyroid® or ERFA Thyroid® . These contain a mixture of levothyroxine and liothyronine in a fixed ratio. We evaluated the response to NDT in individuals at a single endocrine centre in terms of how the change from levothyroxine to NDT impacted on their lives in relation to quality of life (QOL) and thyroid symptoms. METHODS: The ThyPRO39 (thyroid symptomatology) and EQ-5D-5L-related QoL/EQ5D5L (generic QOL) questionnaires were administered to 31 consecutive patients who had been initiated on NDT, before initiating treatment/6 months later. RESULTS: There were 28 women and 3 men. The dose range of NDT was 60-180 mg daily. Age range was 26-77 years with length of time since diagnosis with hypothyroidism ranging from 2 to 40 years. One person discontinued the NDT because of lack of response; two because of cardiac symptoms. EQ-5D-5L utility increased from a mean (SD) of 0.214 (0.338) at baseline, to 0.606 (0.248) after 6 months; corresponding to a difference of 0.392 (95% CI 0.241-0.542), t = 6.82, P < .001. EQ-VAS scores increased from 33.4 (17.2) to 71.1 (17.5), a difference of 37.7 (95% CI 25.2-50.2), t = -4.9, P < .001. ThyPRO scores showed consistent fall across all domains with the composite QoL-impact Score improving from 68.3 (95% CI 60.9-75.7) to 25.2 (95% CI 18.7-31.7), a difference of 43.1 (95% CI 33-53.2) (t = 5.6, P < .001). CONCLUSION: Significant symptomatic benefit and improvement in QOL was experienced by people with a history of levothyroxine unresponsive hypothyroidism treated with NDT, suggesting the need for further evaluation of NDT in this context.

Longitudinal clinical trajectory analysis of individuals before and after diagnosis of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (T2DM) indicates that vascular problems start early.

INTRODUCTION: Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) frequently associates with increasing multi-morbidity/treatment complexity. Some headway has been made to identify genetic and non-genetic risk factors for T2DM. However, longitudinal clinical histories of individuals both before and after diagnosis of T2DM are likely to provide additional insight into both diabetes aetiology/further complex trajectory of multi-morbidity. METHODS: This study utilised diabetes patients/controls enrolled in the DARE (Diabetes Alliance for Research in England) study where pre- and post-T2DM diagnosis longitudinal data was available for trajectory analysis. Longitudinal data of 281 individuals (T2DM n = 237 vs matched non-T2DM controls n = 44) were extracted, checked for errors and logical inconsistencies and then subjected to Trajectory Analysis over a period of up to 70 years based on calculations of the proportions of most prominent clinical conditions for each year. RESULTS: For individuals who eventually had a diagnosis of T2DM made, a number of clinical phenotypes were seen to increase consistently in the years leading up to diagnosis of T2DM. Of these documented phenotypes, the most striking were diagnosed hypertension (more than in the control group) and asthma. This trajectory over time was much less dramatic in the matched control group. Immediately prior to T2DM diagnosis, a greater indication of ischaemic heart disease proportions was observed. Post-T2DM diagnosis, the proportions of T2DM patients exhibiting hypertension and infection continued to climb rapidly before plateauing. Ischaemic heart disease continued to increase in this group as well as retinopathy, impaired renal function and heart failure. CONCLUSION: These observations provide an intriguing and novel insight into the onset and natural progression of T2DM. They suggest an early phase of potentially related disease activity well before any clinical diagnosis of diabetes is made. Further studies on a larger cohort of DARE patients are underway to explore the utility of establishing predictive risk scores.