Post-trial monitoring of a randomised controlled trial of intensive glycaemic control in type 2 diabetes extended from 10 years to 24 years (UKPDS 91).

BACKGROUND: The 20-year UK Prospective Diabetes Study showed major clinical benefits for people with newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes randomly allocated to intensive glycaemic control with sulfonylurea or insulin therapy or metformin therapy, compared with conventional glycaemic control. 10-year post-trial follow-up identified enduring and emerging glycaemic and metformin legacy treatment effects. We aimed to determine whether these effects would wane by extending follow-up for another 14 years. METHODS: 5102 patients enrolled between 1977 and 1991, of whom 4209 (82·5%) participants were originally randomly allocated to receive either intensive glycaemic control (sulfonylurea or insulin, or if overweight, metformin) or conventional glycaemic control (primarily diet). At the end of the 20-year interventional trial, 3277 surviving participants entered a 10-year post-trial monitoring period, which ran until Sept 30, 2007. Eligible participants for this study were all surviving participants at the end of the 10-year post-trial monitoring period. An extended follow-up of these participants was done by linking them to their routinely collected National Health Service (NHS) data for another 14 years. Clinical outcomes were derived from records of deaths, hospital admissions, outpatient visits, and accident and emergency unit attendances. We examined seven prespecified aggregate clinical outcomes (ie, any diabetes-related endpoint, diabetes-related death, death from any cause, myocardial infarction, stroke, peripheral vascular disease, and microvascular disease) by the randomised glycaemic control strategy on an intention-to-treat basis using Kaplan-Meier time-to-event and log-rank analyses. This study is registered with the ISRCTN registry, number ISRCTN75451837. FINDINGS: Between Oct 1, 2007, and Sept 30, 2021, 1489 (97·6%) of 1525 participants could be linked to routinely collected NHS administrative data. Their mean age at baseline was 50·2 years (SD 8·0), and 41·3% were female. The mean age of those still alive as of Sept 30, 2021, was 79·9 years (SD 8·0). Individual follow-up from baseline ranged from 0 to 42 years, median 17·5 years (IQR 12·3-26·8). Overall follow-up increased by 21%, from 66 972 to 80 724 person-years. For up to 24 years after trial end, the glycaemic and metformin legacy effects showed no sign of waning. Early intensive glycaemic control with sulfonylurea or insulin therapy, compared with conventional glycaemic control, showed overall relative risk reductions of 10% (95% CI 2-17; p=0·015) for death from any cause, 17% (6-26; p=0·002) for myocardial infarction, and 26% (14-36; p<0·0001) for microvascular disease. Corresponding absolute risk reductions were 2·7%, 3·3%, and 3·5%, respectively. Early intensive glycaemic control with metformin therapy, compared with conventional glycaemic control, showed overall relative risk reductions of 20% (95% CI 5-32; p=0·010) for death from any cause and 31% (12-46; p=0·003) for myocardial infarction. Corresponding absolute risk reductions were 4·9% and 6·2%, respectively. No significant risk reductions during or after the trial for stroke or peripheral vascular disease were observed for both intensive glycaemic control groups, and no significant risk reduction for microvascular disease was observed for metformin therapy. INTERPRETATION: Early intensive glycaemic control with sulfonylurea or insulin, or with metformin, compared with conventional glycaemic control, appears to confer a near-lifelong reduced risk of death and myocardial infarction. Achieving near normoglycaemia immediately following diagnosis might be essential to minimise the lifetime risk of diabetes-related complications to the greatest extent possible. FUNDING: University of Oxford Nuffield Department of Population Health Pump Priming.

Phenotype-based targeted treatment of SGLT2 inhibitors and GLP-1 receptor agonists in type 2 diabetes.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: A precision medicine approach in type 2 diabetes could enhance targeting specific glucose-lowering therapies to individual patients most likely to benefit. We aimed to use the recently developed Bayesian causal forest (BCF) method to develop and validate an individualised treatment selection algorithm for two major type 2 diabetes drug classes, sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors (SGLT2i) and glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP1-RA). METHODS: We designed a predictive algorithm using BCF to estimate individual-level conditional average treatment effects for 12-month glycaemic outcome (HbA1c) between SGLT2i and GLP1-RA, based on routine clinical features of 46,394 people with type 2 diabetes in primary care in England (Clinical Practice Research Datalink; 27,319 for model development, 19,075 for hold-out validation), with additional external validation in 2252 people with type 2 diabetes from Scotland (SCI-Diabetes [Tayside & Fife]). Differences in glycaemic outcome with GLP1-RA by sex seen in clinical data were replicated in clinical trial data (HARMONY programme: liraglutide [n=389] and albiglutide [n=1682]). As secondary outcomes, we evaluated the impacts of targeting therapy based on glycaemic response on weight change, tolerability and longer-term risk of new-onset microvascular complications, macrovascular complications and adverse kidney events. RESULTS: Model development identified marked heterogeneity in glycaemic response, with 4787 (17.5%) of the development cohort having a predicted HbA1c benefit >3 mmol/mol (>0.3%) with SGLT2i over GLP1-RA and 5551 (20.3%) having a predicted HbA1c benefit >3 mmol/mol with GLP1-RA over SGLT2i. Calibration was good in hold-back validation, and external validation in an independent Scottish dataset identified clear differences in glycaemic outcomes between those predicted to benefit from each therapy. Sex, with women markedly more responsive to GLP1-RA, was identified as a major treatment effect modifier in both the UK observational datasets and in clinical trial data: HARMONY-7 liraglutide (GLP1-RA): 4.4 mmol/mol (95% credible interval [95% CrI] 2.2, 6.3) (0.4% [95% CrI 0.2, 0.6]) greater response in women than men. Targeting the two therapies based on predicted glycaemic response was also associated with improvements in short-term tolerability and long-term risk of new-onset microvascular complications. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Precision medicine approaches can facilitate effective individualised treatment choice between SGLT2i and GLP1-RA therapies, and the use of routinely collected clinical features for treatment selection could support low-cost deployment in many countries.

Assessment of Cardiac Energy Metabolism, Function, and Physiology in Patients With Heart Failure Taking Empagliflozin: The Randomized, Controlled EMPA-VISION Trial.

BACKGROUND: Sodium-glucose co-transporter 2 inhibitors (SGLT2i) have emerged as a paramount treatment for patients with heart failure (HF), irrespective of underlying reduced or preserved ejection fraction. However, a definite cardiac mechanism of action remains elusive. Derangements in myocardial energy metabolism are detectable in all HF phenotypes, and it was proposed that SGLT2i may improve energy production. The authors aimed to investigate whether treatment with empagliflozin leads to changes in myocardial energetics, serum metabolomics, and cardiorespiratory fitness. METHODS: EMPA-VISION (Assessment of Cardiac Energy Metabolism, Function and Physiology in Patients With Heart Failure Taking Empagliflozin) is a prospective, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, mechanistic trial that enrolled 72 symptomatic patients with chronic HF with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF; n=36; left ventricular ejection fraction ≤40%; New York Heart Association class ≥II; NT-proBNP [N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide] ≥125 pg/mL) and HF with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF; n=36; left ventricular ejection fraction ≥50%; New York Heart Association class ≥II; NT-proBNP ≥125 pg/mL). Patients were stratified into respective cohorts (HFrEF versus HFpEF) and randomly assigned to empagliflozin (10 mg; n=35: 17 HFrEF and 18 HFpEF) or placebo (n=37: 19 HFrEF and 18 HFpEF) once daily for 12 weeks. The primary end point was a change in the cardiac phosphocreatine:ATP ratio (PCr/ATP) from baseline to week 12, determined by phosphorus magnetic resonance spectroscopy at rest and during peak dobutamine stress (65% of age-maximum heart rate). Mass spectrometry on a targeted set of 19 metabolites was performed at baseline and after treatment. Other exploratory end points were investigated. RESULTS: Empagliflozin treatment did not change cardiac energetics (ie, PCr/ATP) at rest in HFrEF (adjusted mean treatment difference [empagliflozin - placebo], -0.25 [95% CI, -0.58 to 0.09]; P=0.14) or HFpEF (adjusted mean treatment difference, -0.16 [95% CI, -0.60 to 0.29]; P=0.47]. Likewise, there were no changes in PCr/ATP during dobutamine stress in HFrEF (adjusted mean treatment difference, -0.13 [95% CI, -0.35 to 0.09]; P=0.23) or HFpEF (adjusted mean treatment difference, -0.22 [95% CI, -0.66 to 0.23]; P=0.32). No changes in serum metabolomics or levels of circulating ketone bodies were observed. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with either HFrEF or HFpEF, treatment with 10 mg of empagliflozin once daily for 12 weeks did not improve cardiac energetics or change circulating serum metabolites associated with energy metabolism when compared with placebo. Based on our results, it is unlikely that enhancing cardiac energy metabolism mediates the beneficial effects of SGLT2i in HF. REGISTRATION: URL: https://www. CLINICALTRIALS: gov; Unique identifier: NCT03332212.

Regional variation in cause of death in patients with type 2 diabetes: Insights from EXSCEL.

AIMS: Type 2 diabetes (T2D) is a risk factor for cardiovascular and non-cardiovascular mortality. However, global distribution of cause-specific deaths in T2D is poorly understood. We characterized cause-specific deaths by geographic region among individuals with T2D at risk for cardiovascular disease (CVD). METHODS AND RESULTS: The international EXSCEL trial included 14,752 participants with T2D (73% with established CVD). We identified the proportion of deaths over 5-year follow-up attributed to cardiovascular and non-cardiovascular causes, and associated risk factors. During median 3.2-year follow-up, 1,091 (7.4%) participants died. Adjudicated causes of death were 723 cardiovascular (66.3% of deaths), including 252 unknown, and 368 non-cardiovascular (33.7%). Most deaths occurred in North America (N = 356/9.6% across region) and Eastern Europe (N = 326/8.1%), with fewest in Asia/Pacific (N = 68/4.4%). The highest proportional cause-specific deaths by region were sudden cardiac in Asia/Pacific (23/34% of regional deaths) and North America (86/24%); unknown in Eastern Europe (90/28%) and Western Europe (39/21%); and non-malignant non-cardiovascular in Latin America (48/31%). Cox proportional hazards model for adjudicated causes of death showed prognostic risk factors (hazard ratio [95% CI]) for cardiovascular and non-cardiovascular deaths, respectively: heart failure 2.04 (1.72-2.42) and 1.86 (1.46-2.39); peripheral artery disease 1.83 (1.54-2.18) and 1.78 (1.40-2.26); and current smoking status 1.61 (1.29-2.01) and 1.77 (1.31-2.40). CONCLUSIONS: In a contemporary T2D trial population, with and without established CVD, leading causes of death varied by geographic region. Underlying mechanisms leading to variability in cause of death across geographic regions and its impact on clinical trial endpoints warrant future research.

Time-dependent event accumulation in a cardiovascular outcome trial of patients with type 2 diabetes and established atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease.

BACKGROUND: Estimating cardiovascular (CV) event accrual is important for outcome trial planning. Limited data exist describing event accrual patterns in patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D). We compared apparent CV event accrual patterns with true event rates in the Trial Evaluating Cardiovascular Outcomes with Sitagliptin (TECOS). METHODS: Centrally adjudicated event dates and accrual rates for a 4-point major adverse CV event composite (MACE-4; includes CV death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, nonfatal stroke, or unstable angina hospitalization), MACE-4 components, all-cause mortality (ACM), and heart failure hospitalization were compiled. We used three graphical methods (Weibull probability plot, plot of negative log of the Kaplan-Meier survival distribution estimate, and the Epanechnikov kernel-smoothed estimate of the hazard rate) to examine hazard rate morphology over time for the 7 outcomes. RESULTS: Plots for all outcomes showed real-time constant event hazard rates for the duration of the follow-up, confirmed by Weibull shape parameters. The Weibull shape parameters for ACM (1.14, 95% CI 1.08-1.21) and CV death (1.08, 95% CI 1.01-1.16) were not sufficiently > 1 as to require non-constant hazard rate models to accurately depict the data. The time lag between event occurrence and event adjudication being completed, the adjudication gap, improved over the course of the trial. CONCLUSIONS: In TECOS, the nonfatal event hazard rates were constant over time. Small increases over time in the hazard rate for fatal events would not require complex modelling to predict event accrual, providing confidence in traditional modelling methods for predicting CV outcome trial event rates in this population. The adjudication gap provides a useful metric to monitor within-trial event accrual patterns. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: Clinicaltrials.gov NCT00790205.

Timing of SGLT2i initiation after acute myocardial infarction.

BACKGROUND: Pharmacological post-MI treatment is routinely initiated at intensive/cardiac care units. However, solid evidence for an early start of these therapies is only available for dual platelet therapy and statins, whereas data on beta blockers and RAAS inhibitors are heterogenous and mainly limited to STEMI and heart failure patients. Recently, the EMMY trial provided the first evidence on the beneficial effects of SGLT2 inhibitors (SGLT2i) when initiated early after PCI. In patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus, SGLT2i are considered "sick days drugs" and it, therefore, remains unclear if very early SGLT2i initiation following MI is as safe and effective as delayed initiation. METHODS AND RESULTS: The EMMY trial evaluated the effect of empagliflozin on NT-proBNP and functional and structural measurements. Within the Empagliflozin group, 22 (9.5%) received early treatment (< 24 h after PCI), 98 (42.2%) within a 24 to < 48 h window (intermediate), and 111 (48.1%) between 48 and 72 h (late). NT-proBNP levels declined by 63.5% (95%CI: - 69.1; - 48.1) in the early group compared to 61.0% (- 76.0; - 41.4) in the intermediate and 61.9% (- 70.8; - 45.7) in the late group (n.s.) within the Empagliflozin group with no significant treatment groups-initiation time interaction (pint = 0.96). Secondary endpoints of left ventricular function (LV-EF, e/e`) as well as structure (LVESD and LVEDD) were also comparable between the groups. No significant difference in severe adverse event rate between the initiation time groups was detected. CONCLUSION: Very early administration of SGLT2i after acute myocardial infarction does not show disadvantageous signals with respect to safety and appears to be as effective in reducing NT-proBNP as well as improving structural and functional LV markers as initiation after 2-3 days.

Association of osteocalcin, osteoprotegerin, and osteopontin with cardiovascular disease and retinopathy in type 2 diabetes.

BACKGROUND: Novel biomarkers of vascular disease in diabetes could help identify new mechanistic pathways. Osteocalcin, osteoprotegerin, and osteopontin are key molecules involved in bone and vascular calcification processes, both of which are compromised in diabetes. We aimed to evaluate possible associations of osteocalcin, osteoprotegerin, and osteopontin with cardiovascular disease (CVD) and diabetic retinopathy (DR) among people with type 2 diabetes (T2D). MATERIALS AND METHODS: Osteocalcin, osteoprotegerin, and osteopontin concentrations were measured at enrolment in 848 participants with T2D from the Sapienza University Mortality and Morbidity Event Rate (SUMMER) Study (ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT02311244). Logistic regression models and propensity score matching were used to assess possible associations of osteocalcin, osteoprotegerin, and osteopontin with a history of CVD and with evidence of any grade of DR adjusting for confounders. RESULTS: Previous CVD was reported in 139 (16.4%) participants, while 144 (17.0%) had DR. After adjusting for possible confounders, osteocalcin but not osteoprotegerin or osteopontin concentrations were associated with a history of CVD (Odds Ratio [OR] and 95% CI for one standard deviation (SD) increase in osteocalcin concentrations (natural log): 1.35 (1.06-1.72), p = 0.014). Associations with prevalent DR were seen for osteoprotegerin (OR for one SD increase in osteoprotegerin concentrations (natural log): 1.25 (1.01-1.55), p = 0.047) and osteopontin (OR for one SD increase in osteopontin concentrations (natural log): 1.25 (1.02-1.53), p = 0.022), but not osteocalcin. CONCLUSIONS: In T2D, higher serum osteocalcin concentrations are associated with macrovascular complications and higher osteoprotegerin and osteopontin concentrations with microvascular complications, suggesting that these osteokines might be involved in pathways directly related to vascular disease.

Aetiology of Type 2 diabetes in people with a 'normal' body mass index: testing the personal fat threshold hypothesis.

Weight loss in overweight or obese individuals with Type 2 diabetes (T2D) can normalize hepatic fat metabolism, decrease fatty acid oversupply to ß cells and restore normoglycaemia. One in six people has BMI <27 kg/m2 at diagnosis, and their T2D is assumed to have different aetiology. The Personal Fat Threshold hypothesis postulated differing individual thresholds for lipid overspill and adverse effects on ß-cell function. To test this hypothesis, people with Type 2 diabetes and body mass index <27kg/m2 (n = 20) underwent repeated 5% weight loss cycles. Metabolic assessments were carried out at stable weight after each cycle and after 12 months. To determine how closely metabolic features returned to normal, 20 matched normoglycemic controls were studied once. Between baseline and 12 months: BMI fell (mean ± SD), 24.8 ± 0.4 to 22.5 ± 0.4 kg/m2 (P<0.0001) (controls: 21.5 ± 0.5); total body fat, 32.1 ± 1.5 to 27.6 ± 1.8% (P<0.0001) (24.6 ± 1.5). Liver fat content and fat export fell to normal as did fasting plasma insulin. Post-meal insulin secretion increased but remained subnormal. Sustained diabetes remission (HbA1c < 48 mmol/mol off all glucose-lowering agents) was achieved by 70% (14/20) by initial weight loss of 6.5 (5.5-10.2)%. Correction of concealed excess intra-hepatic fat reduced hepatic fat export, with recovery of ß-cell function, glycaemic improvement in all and return to a non-diabetic metabolic state in the majority of this group with BMI <27 kg/m2 as previously demonstrated for overweight or obese groups. The data confirm the Personal Fat Threshold hypothesis: aetiology of Type 2 diabetes does not depend on BMI. This pathophysiological insight has major implications for management.

Joint longitudinal and time-to-event modelling compared with standard Cox modelling in patients with type 2 diabetes with and without established cardiovascular disease: An analysis of the EXSCEL trial.

AIM: To demonstrate the gain in predictive performance when cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk prediction tools (RPTs) incorporate repeated rather than only single measurements of risk factors. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We used data from the Exenatide Study of Cardiovascular Event Lowering (EXSCEL) trial to compare the quality of predictions of future major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) with the Cox proportional hazards model (using single values of risk factors) compared to the Bayesian joint model (using repeated measures of risk factors). The risk of MACE was calculated in patients with type 2 diabetes with and without established CVD. We assessed the predictive ability of the following cardiovascular risk factors: glycated haemoglobin, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), non-HDL-C, triglycerides, estimated glomerular filtration rate, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), total cholesterol, and systolic blood pressure (SBP) using the time-dependent area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (aROC) for discrimination and the time-dependent Brier score for calibration. RESULTS: In participants without history of CVD, the aROC of SBP increased from 0.62 to 0.69 when repeated rather than only single measurements of SBP were incorporated into the predictive model. Similarly, the aROC increased from 0.67 to 0.80 when repeated rather than only single measurements of both SBP and LDL-C were incorporated into the predictive model. For all other investigated cardiovascular risk factors, the measures of discrimination and calibration both improved when using the joint model as compared to the Cox proportional hazards model. The improvement was evident in participants with and without history of CVD but was more pronounced in the latter group. CONCLUSIONS: The analysis demonstrates that the joint modelling approach, considering trajectories of cardiovascular risk factors, provides superior predictive performance compared to standard RPTs that use only a single timepoint.

Sex differences in the complications, care and clinical outcomes of patients with type 2 diabetes in the Exenatide Study of Cardiovascular Event Lowering (EXSCEL).

AIM: To examine sex differences in the characteristics and outcomes in participants with type 2 diabetes (T2D), with or without cardiovascular disease (CVD), randomized to once-weekly exenatide (EQW) or placebo in the Exenatide Study of Cardiovascular Event Lowering (EXSCEL). MATERIALS AND METHODS: Baseline characteristics were summarized and compared by sex. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used for clinical outcomes, including the primary composite outcome of cardiovascular (CV) death, non-fatal myocardial infarction or non-fatal stroke (MACE3). Models including sex-by-treatment interaction were used to evaluate differences in effects of EQW. RESULTS: Overall, 5603 women and 9149 men were followed for a median of 3.2 years. Women were younger (mean 61.4 vs. 62.2 years, P < .001) and had a shorter duration of diabetes (mean 12.9 vs. 13.2 years, P = .039) and less coronary artery disease (35.2% vs. 61.0%, P < .001) than men, but also a less favourable metabolic risk profile and lower use of cardioprotective medications. MACE3 occurred in 9.1% of women and 13.5% of men, corresponding to 2.82 versus 4.40 events/100 participant-years (adjusted hazard ratio 0.80, 95% CI: 0.70-0.93, P = .003). There was no difference in MACE3 with EQW compared with placebo, or evidence of heterogeneity of treatment effect by sex. CONCLUSIONS: This analysis of a large population of individuals with T2D, with or without established CVD, identified between-sex differences in clinical characteristics and care. Despite having worse management of CV risk factors, women had significantly lower rates of important CV events not attributable to the effects of study treatment.

Impact of baseline kidney function on the effects of sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 inhibitors on kidney and heart failure outcomes: A systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials.

AIM: To determine whether the magnitude of the cardiorenal benefits of sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 inhibitors (SGLT2is) varies with baseline kidney function. METHODS: We searched randomized, placebo-controlled trials testing the effects of SGLT2is on renal and cardiovascular outcomes. Efficacy outcomes, stratified by baseline estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) categories, included renal disease progression, a composite heart failure (HF) outcome and mortality. RESULTS: Thirteen trials testing SGLT2is in 90 402 participants with available eGFR data were included. The risk of bias was judged as low for all trials. SGLT2is reduced the relative risks of renal disease progression by 27% to 57% and of HF outcomes by 13% to 32% across different eGFR categories, with an overall low heterogeneity. Meta-regression analyses showed a significant direct relationship between baseline eGFR and the magnitude of SGLT2is' renal protection (P = .003). The greatest risk reduction was in participants with an eGFR of 90 ml/min/1.73m2 or higher (HR 0.43, 95% CI: 0.32-0.58) and the smallest was in those with an eGFR of less than 30 ml/min/1.73m2 (HR 0.73, 95% CI: 0.62-0.86, P < .001). Conversely, for HF, the greatest risk reduction was in those with an eGFR of less than 30 ml/min/1.73m2 (HR 0.68, 95% CI: 0.48-0.96) and the smallest was in those with an eGFR of 90 ml/min/1.73m2 or higher (HR 0.87, 95% CI: 0.56-1.34). CONCLUSIONS: SGLT2is reduce the risk of renal and HF outcomes for all eGFR categories. The greatest benefits in terms of kidney protection may be achieved by early initiation of SGLT2is in people with preserved eGFR. The greatest risk reduction for HF outcomes is observed in people with lower eGFR values.

Empagliflozin in acute myocardial infarction: the EMMY trial.

AIMS: Sodium-glucose co-transporter 2 inhibition reduces the risk of hospitalization for heart failure and for death in patients with symptomatic heart failure. However, trials investigating the effects of this drug class in patients following acute myocardial infarction are lacking. METHODS AND RESULTS: In this academic, multicentre, double-blind trial, patients (n = 476) with acute myocardial infarction accompanied by a large creatine kinase elevation (>800 IU/L) were randomly assigned to empagliflozin 10 mg or matching placebo once daily within 72 h of percutaneous coronary intervention. The primary outcome was the N-terminal pro-hormone of brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) change over 26 weeks. Secondary outcomes included changes in echocardiographic parameters. Baseline median (interquartile range) NT-proBNP was 1294 (757-2246) pg/mL. NT-proBNP reduction was significantly greater in the empagliflozin group, compared with placebo, being 15% lower [95% confidence interval (CI) -4.4% to -23.6%] after adjusting for baseline NT-proBNP, sex, and diabetes status (P = 0.026). Absolute left-ventricular ejection fraction improvement was significantly greater (1.5%, 95% CI 0.2-2.9%, P = 0.029), mean E/e' reduction was 6.8% (95% CI 1.3-11.3%, P = 0.015) greater, and left-ventricular end-systolic and end-diastolic volumes were lower by 7.5 mL (95% CI 3.4-11.5 mL, P = 0.0003) and 9.7 mL (95% CI 3.7-15.7 mL, P = 0.0015), respectively, in the empagliflozin group, compared with placebo. Seven patients were hospitalized for heart failure (three in the empagliflozin group). Other predefined serious adverse events were rare and did not differ significantly between groups. CONCLUSION: In patients with a recent myocardial infarction, empagliflozin was associated with a significantly greater NT-proBNP reduction over 26 weeks, accompanied by a significant improvement in echocardiographic functional and structural parameters. CLINICALTRIALS.GOV REGISTRATION: NCT03087773.

Orthostatic Hypotension, Hypertension Treatment, and Cardiovascular Disease: An Individual Participant Meta-Analysis.

Importance: There are ongoing concerns about the benefits of intensive vs standard blood pressure (BP) treatment among adults with orthostatic hypotension or standing hypotension. Objective: To determine the effect of a lower BP treatment goal or active therapy vs a standard BP treatment goal or placebo on cardiovascular disease (CVD) or all-cause mortality in strata of baseline orthostatic hypotension or baseline standing hypotension. Data Sources: Individual participant data meta-analysis based on a systematic review of MEDLINE, EMBASE, and CENTRAL databases through May 13, 2022. Study Selection: Randomized trials of BP pharmacologic treatment (more intensive BP goal or active agent) with orthostatic hypotension assessments. Data Extraction and Synthesis: Individual participant data meta-analysis extracted following PRISMA guidelines. Effects were determined using Cox proportional hazard models using a single-stage approach. Main Outcomes and Measures: Main outcomes were CVD or all-cause mortality. Orthostatic hypotension was defined as a decrease in systolic BP of at least 20 mm Hg and/or diastolic BP of at least 10 mm Hg after changing position from sitting to standing. Standing hypotension was defined as a standing systolic BP of 110 mm Hg or less or standing diastolic BP of 60 mm Hg or less. Results: The 9 trials included 29 235 participants followed up for a median of 4 years (mean age, 69.0 [SD, 10.9] years; 48% women). There were 9% with orthostatic hypotension and 5% with standing hypotension at baseline. More intensive BP treatment or active therapy lowered risk of CVD or all-cause mortality among those without baseline orthostatic hypotension (hazard ratio [HR], 0.81; 95% CI, 0.76-0.86) similarly to those with baseline orthostatic hypotension (HR, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.70-1.00; P = .68 for interaction of treatment with baseline orthostatic hypotension). More intensive BP treatment or active therapy lowered risk of CVD or all-cause mortality among those without baseline standing hypotension (HR, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.75-0.85), and nonsignificantly among those with baseline standing hypotension (HR, 0.94; 95% CI, 0.75-1.18). Effects did not differ by baseline standing hypotension (P = .16 for interaction of treatment with baseline standing hypotension). Conclusions and Relevance: In this population of hypertension trial participants, intensive therapy reduced risk of CVD or all-cause mortality regardless of orthostatic hypotension without evidence for different effects among those with standing hypotension.

Effect of race on cardiometabolic responses to once-weekly exenatide: insights from the Exenatide Study of Cardiovascular Event Lowering (EXSCEL).

BACKGROUND: To determine whether there were racial differences in short-term cardiometabolic responses to once-weekly exenatide (EQW) in the Exenatide Study of Cardiovascular Event Lowering (EXSCEL). METHODS: EXSCEL enrolled 14,752 patients with type 2 diabetes (hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) 6.5-10.0% [48-86 mmol/mol]) with or without cardiovascular disease who were randomized double-blind to EQW or placebo. Background glucose-lowering/other cardiovascular therapies were unaltered for 6 months post-randomization unless clinically essential, facilitating comparison of EQW-associated effects in 14,665 evaluable participants self-identifying as White (n = 11,113), Asian (n = 1444), Black (n = 870), or Other Race (n = 1,238. Placebo-adjusted 6 month absolute changes in cardiometabolic variables were assessed using generalized linear models. RESULTS: Mean 6-month placebo-adjusted HbA1c reductions were similar in the four groups (range 0.54-0.67% [5.9 to 7.3 mmol/mol], P = 0.11 for race×treatment interaction), with no significant difference in Asians (reference) versus other groups after covariate adjustment (all P ≥ 0.10). Six-month placebo-adjusted mean changes in systolic (-1.8 to 0.0 mmHg) and diastolic (0.2 to 1.2 mmHg) blood pressure, serum LDL (- 0.06 to 0.02 mmol/L) and HDL (0.00 to 0.01 mmol/L) cholesterol, and serum triglycerides (-0.1 to 0.0 mmol/L) were similar in the racial groups (P ≥ 0.19 for race×treatment interaction and all P ≥ 0.13 for comparisons of Asians with other races). Resting pulse rate increased more in Asians (4 beats/min) than in other groups (≤ 3 beats/min, P = 0.016 for race×treatment interaction and all P ≤ 0.050 for comparisons of Asians with other races). CONCLUSIONS: Short-term cardiometabolic responses to EQW were similar in the main racial groups in EXSCEL, apart from a greater pulse rate increase in Asians. TRIAL REGISTRATION: https://clinicaltrials.gov NCT01144338.

Development and validation of a model to predict cardiovascular death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, or nonfatal stroke in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus and established atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease.

BACKGROUND: Among individuals with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD), type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is common and confers increased risk for morbidity and mortality. Differentiating risk is key to optimize efficiency of treatment selection. Our objective was to develop and validate a model to predict risk of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) comprising the first event of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction (MI), or stroke for individuals with both T2DM and ASCVD. METHODS: Using data from the Trial Evaluating Cardiovascular Outcomes with Sitagliptin (TECOS), we used Cox proportional hazards models to predict MACE among participants with T2DM and ASCVD. All baseline covariates collected in the trial were considered for inclusion, although some were excluded immediately because of large missingness or collinearity. A full model was developed using stepwise selection in each of 25 imputed datasets, and comprised candidate variables selected in 20 of the 25 datasets. A parsimonious model with a maximum of 10 degrees of freedom was created using Cox models with least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO), where the adjusted R-square was used as criterion for selection. The model was then externally validated among a cohort of participants with similar criteria in the ACCORD (Action to Control Cardiovascular Risk in Diabetes) trial. Discrimination of both models was assessed using Harrell's C-index and model calibration by the Greenwood-Nam-D'Agostino statistic based on 4-year event rates. RESULTS: Overall, 1491 (10.2%) of 14,671 participants in TECOS and 130 (9.3%) in the ACCORD validation cohort (n = 1404) had MACE over 3 years' median follow-up. The final model included 9 characteristics (prior stroke, age, chronic kidney disease, prior MI, sex, heart failure, insulin use, atrial fibrillation, and microvascular complications). The model had moderate discrimination in both the internal and external validation samples (C-index = 0.65 and 0.61, respectively). The model was well calibrated across the risk spectrum-from a cumulative MACE rate of 6% at 4 years in the lowest risk quintile to 26% in the highest risk quintile. CONCLUSION: Among patients with T2DM and prevalent ASCVD, this 9-factor risk model can quantify the risk of future ASCVD complications and inform decision making for treatments and intensity.

Risk prediction models for incident type 2 diabetes in Chinese people with intermediate hyperglycemia: a systematic literature review and external validation study.

BACKGROUND: People with intermediate hyperglycemia (IH), including impaired fasting glucose and/or impaired glucose tolerance, are at higher risk of developing type 2 diabetes (T2D) than those with normoglycemia. We aimed to evaluate the performance of published T2D risk prediction models in Chinese people with IH to inform them about the choice of primary diabetes prevention measures. METHODS: A systematic literature search was conducted to identify Asian-derived T2D risk prediction models, which were eligible if they were built on a prospective cohort of Asian adults without diabetes at baseline and utilized routinely-available variables to predict future risk of T2D. These Asian-derived and five prespecified non-Asian derived T2D risk prediction models were divided into BASIC (clinical variables only) and EXTENDED (plus laboratory variables) versions, with validation performed on them in three prospective Chinese IH cohorts: ACE (n = 3241), Luzhou (n = 1333), and TCLSIH (n = 1702). Model performance was assessed in terms of discrimination (C-statistic) and calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow test). RESULTS: Forty-four Asian and five non-Asian studies comprising 21 BASIC and 46 EXTENDED T2D risk prediction models for validation were identified. The majority were at high (n = 43, 87.8%) or unclear (n = 3, 6.1%) risk of bias, while only three studies (6.1%) were scored at low risk of bias. BASIC models showed poor-to-moderate discrimination with C-statistics 0.52-0.60, 0.50-0.59, and 0.50-0.64 in the ACE, Luzhou, and TCLSIH cohorts respectively. EXTENDED models showed poor-to-acceptable discrimination with C-statistics 0.54-0.73, 0.52-0.67, and 0.59-0.78 respectively. Fifteen BASIC and 40 EXTENDED models showed poor calibration (P < 0.05), overpredicting or underestimating the observed diabetes risk. Most recalibrated models showed improved calibration but modestly-to-severely overestimated diabetes risk in the three cohorts. The NAVIGATOR model showed the best discrimination in the three cohorts but had poor calibration (P < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: In Chinese people with IH, previously published BASIC models to predict T2D did not exhibit good discrimination or calibration. Several EXTENDED models performed better, but a robust Chinese T2D risk prediction tool in people with IH remains a major unmet need.

Effects of Intensive Blood Pressure Treatment on Orthostatic Hypotension : A Systematic Review and Individual Participant-based Meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Although intensive blood pressure (BP)-lowering treatment reduces risk for cardiovascular disease, there are concerns that it might cause orthostatic hypotension (OH). PURPOSE: To examine the effects of intensive BP-lowering treatment on OH in hypertensive adults. DATA SOURCES: MEDLINE, EMBASE, and Cochrane CENTRAL from inception through 7 October 2019, without language restrictions. STUDY SELECTION: Randomized trials of BP pharmacologic treatment (more intensive BP goal or active agent) that involved more than 500 adults with hypertension or elevated BP and that were 6 months or longer in duration. Trial comparisons were groups assigned to either less intensive BP goals or placebo, and the outcome was measured OH, defined as a decrease of 20 mm Hg or more in systolic BP or 10 mm Hg or more in diastolic BP after changing position from seated to standing. DATA EXTRACTION: 2 investigators independently abstracted articles and rated risk of bias. DATA SYNTHESIS: 5 trials examined BP treatment goals, and 4 examined active agents versus placebo. Trials examining BP treatment goals included 18 466 participants with 127 882 follow-up visits. Trials were open-label, with minimal heterogeneity of effects across trials. Intensive BP treatment lowered risk for OH (odds ratio, 0.93 [95% CI, 0.86 to 0.99]). Effects did not differ by prerandomization OH (P for interaction = 0.80). In sensitivity analyses that included 4 additional placebo-controlled trials, overall and subgroup findings were unchanged. LIMITATIONS: Assessments of OH were done while participants were seated (not supine) and did not include the first minute after standing. Data on falls and syncope were not available. CONCLUSION: Intensive BP-lowering treatment decreases risk for OH. Orthostatic hypotension, before or in the setting of more intensive BP treatment, should not be viewed as a reason to avoid or de-escalate treatment for hypertension. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, National Institutes of Health. (PROSPERO: CRD42020153753).

Exploring the Possible Impact of Unbalanced Open-Label Drop-In of Glucose-Lowering Medications on EXSCEL Outcomes.

BACKGROUND: EXSCEL (Exenatide Study of Cardiovascular Event Lowering) assessed the impact of once-weekly exenatide 2 mg versus placebo in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus, while aiming for glycemic equipoise. Consequently, greater drop-in of open-label glucose-lowering medications occurred in the placebo group. Accordingly, we explored the potential effects of their unbalanced use on major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE), defined as cardiovascular death, nonfatal myocardial infarction or nonfatal stroke, and all-cause mortality (ACM), given that some of these agents are cardioprotective. METHODS: Cox hazard models were performed by randomized treatment for drug classes where >5% open-label drop-in glucose-lowering medication occurred, and for glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1 RAs; 3.0%) using three methodologies: drop-in visit right censoring, inverse probability for treatment weighting (IPTW), and applying drug class risk reductions. RESULTS: Baseline glucose-lowering medications for the 14 752 EXSCEL participants (73.1% with previous cardiovascular disease) did not differ between treatment groups. During median 3.2 years follow-up, open-label drop-in occurred in 33.4% of participants, more frequently with placebo than exenatide (38.1% versus 28.8%), with metformin (6.1% versus 4.9%), sulfonylurea (8.7% versus 6.9%), dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors (10.6% versus 7.5%), SGLT-2i (10.3% versus 8.1%), GLP-1 RA (3.4% versus 2.4%), and insulin (13.8% versus 9.4%). The MACE effect size was not altered meaningfully by right censoring, but the favorable HR for exenatide became nominally significant in the sulfonylurea and any glucose-lowering medication groups, while the ACM HR and p-values were essentially unchanged. IPTW decreased the MACE HR from 0.91 (P=0.061) to 0.85 (P=0.008) and the ACM HR from 0.86 (P=0.016) to 0.81 (P=0.012). Application of literature-derived risk reductions showed no meaningful changes in MACE or ACM HRs or P values, although simulations of substantially greater use of drop-in cardioprotective glucose-lowering agents demonstrated blunting of signal detection. CONCLUSIONS: EXSCEL-observed HRs for MACE and ACM remained robust after right censoring or application of literature-derived risk reductions, but the exenatide versus placebo MACE effect size and statistical significance were increased by IPTW. Effects of open-label drop-in cardioprotective medications need to be considered carefully when designing, conducting, and analyzing cardiovascular outcome trials of glucose-lowering agents under the premise of glycemic equipoise. Registration: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT01144338.

Impact of Regulatory Guidance on Evaluating Cardiovascular Risk of New Glucose-Lowering Therapies to Treat Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus: Lessons Learned and Future Directions.

Responding to concerns about the potential for increased risk of adverse cardiovascular outcomes, specifically myocardial infarction, associated with certain glucose-lowering therapies, the US Food and Drug Administration and the Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use of the European Medicines Agency issued guidance to the pharmaceutical industry in 2008. Glucose-lowering therapies were granted regulatory approval primarily from smaller studies that have demonstrated reductions in glycated hemoglobin concentration. Such studies were overall underpowered and of insufficient duration to show any effect on cardiovascular outcomes. The 2008 guidance aimed to ensure the cardiovascular safety of new glucose-lowering therapies to treat patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus. This resulted in a plethora of new cardiovascular outcome trials, most designed primarily as placebo-controlled noninferiority trials, but with many also powered for superiority. Several of these outcome trials demonstrated cardiovascular benefits of the newer agents, resulting in the first-ever cardiovascular protection indications for glucose-lowering therapies. Determining whether the guidance continues to have value in its current form is critically important as we move forward after the first decade of implementation. In February 2018, a think tank comprising representatives from academia, industry, and regulatory agencies convened to consider the guidance in light of the findings of the completed cardiovascular outcome trials. The group made several recommendations for future regulatory guidance and for cardiovascular outcome trials of glucose-lowering therapies. These recommendations include requiring only the 1.3 noninferiority margin for regulatory approval, conducting trials for longer durations, considering studying glucose-lowering therapies as first-line management of type 2 diabetes mellitus, considering heart failure or kidney outcomes within the primary outcome, considering head-to-head active comparator trials, increasing the diversity of patients enrolled, evaluating strategies to streamline registries and the study of unselected populations, and identifying ways to improve translation of trial results to general practice.

Effect of once-weekly exenatide on hospitalization for acute coronary syndrome or coronary revascularization in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus.

Cardiovascular (CV) outcome studies of glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1 RAs) have shifted the paradigm of type 2 diabetes management given their benefits regarding a reduction in major adverse CV events. However, the relationship between GLP-1 RAs and coronary revascularization remains poorly understood. In this EXSCEL post-hoc analysis, we used univariate Cox proportional models and Kaplan Meier survival analysis to evaluate the effect of once-weekly exenatide (EQW) on a composite outcome of hospitalization for acute coronary syndrome (ACS) or coronary revascularization. Similar models were utilized to evaluate the relationship between significant participant characteristics within the entire study population and the composite outcome. Of the 14,736 participants in EXSCEL with complete follow-up data, 1642 (11.1%) experienced an ACS or coronary revascularization event during a median follow-up of 3.3 years (interquartile range, 2.3-4.4). EQW had no effect on hospitalization for ACS or coronary revascularization (HR 1.00, 95% CI 0.91-1.10). Among EXSCEL participants, enrollment in Latin America (HR 0.51, 95% CI 0.43-0.60) and a history of peripheral artery disease (HR 0.79, 95% CI 0.70-0.90) were associated with a reduced risk for coronary revascularization, whereas enrollment in North America (HR 1.92, 95% CI 1.74-2.12), a history of CV disease (HR 3.24, 95% CI 2.78-3.78), and a previous myocardial infarction (HR 1.54, 95% CI 1.39-1.71) were associated with increased risk for study end points. EQW had no association with hospitalization for ACS or coronary revascularization. Participant enrollment location and CV disease burden may play a role in the variable CV efficacy of GLP-1 RAs that has been observed in trials thus far.