Global and regional drivers of land-use emissions in 1961-2017.

Historically, human uses of land have transformed and fragmented ecosystems1,2, degraded biodiversity3,4, disrupted carbon and nitrogen cycles5,6 and added prodigious quantities of greenhouse gases (GHGs) to the atmosphere7,8. However, in contrast to fossil-fuel carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, trends and drivers of GHG emissions from land management and land-use change (together referred to as 'land-use emissions') have not been as comprehensively and systematically assessed. Here we present country-, process-, GHG- and product-specific inventories of global land-use emissions from 1961 to 2017, we decompose key demographic, economic and technical drivers of emissions and we assess the uncertainties and the sensitivity of results to different accounting assumptions. Despite steady increases in population (+144 per cent) and agricultural production per capita (+58 per cent), as well as smaller increases in emissions per land area used (+8 per cent), decreases in land required per unit of agricultural production (-70 per cent) kept global annual land-use emissions relatively constant at about 11 gigatonnes CO2-equivalent until 2001. After 2001, driven by rising emissions per land area, emissions increased by 2.4 gigatonnes CO2-equivalent per decade to 14.6 gigatonnes CO2-equivalent in 2017 (about 25 per cent of total anthropogenic GHG emissions). Although emissions intensity decreased in all regions, large differences across regions persist over time. The three highest-emitting regions (Latin America, Southeast Asia and sub-Saharan Africa) dominate global emissions growth from 1961 to 2017, driven by rapid and extensive growth of agricultural production and related land-use change. In addition, disproportionate emissions are related to certain products: beef and a few other red meats supply only 1 per cent of calories worldwide, but account for 25 per cent of all land-use emissions. Even where land-use change emissions are negligible or negative, total per capita CO2-equivalent land-use emissions remain near 0.5 tonnes per capita, suggesting the current frontier of mitigation efforts. Our results are consistent with existing knowledge-for example, on the role of population and economic growth and dietary choice-but provide additional insight into regional and sectoral trends.

Committed emissions from existing energy infrastructure jeopardize 1.5 °C climate target.

Net anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) must approach zero by mid-century (2050) in order to stabilize the global mean temperature at the level targeted by international efforts1-5. Yet continued expansion of fossil-fuel-burning energy infrastructure implies already 'committed' future CO2 emissions6-13. Here we use detailed datasets of existing fossil-fuel energy infrastructure in 2018 to estimate regional and sectoral patterns of committed CO2 emissions, the sensitivity of such emissions to assumed operating lifetimes and schedules, and the economic value of the associated infrastructure. We estimate that, if operated as historically, existing infrastructure will cumulatively emit about 658 gigatonnes of CO2 (with a range of 226 to 1,479 gigatonnes CO2, depending on the lifetimes and utilization rates assumed). More than half of these emissions are predicted to come from the electricity sector; infrastructure in China, the USA and the 28 member states of the European Union represents approximately 41 per cent, 9 per cent and 7 per cent of the total, respectively. If built, proposed power plants (planned, permitted or under construction) would emit roughly an extra 188 (range 37-427) gigatonnes CO2. Committed emissions from existing and proposed energy infrastructure (about 846 gigatonnes CO2) thus represent more than the entire carbon budget that remains if mean warming is to be limited to 1.5 degrees Celsius (°C) with a probability of 66 to 50 per cent (420-580 gigatonnes CO2)5, and perhaps two-thirds of the remaining carbon budget if mean warming is to be limited to less than 2 °C (1,170-1,500 gigatonnes CO2)5. The remaining carbon budget estimates are varied and nuanced14,15, and depend on the climate target and the availability of large-scale negative emissions16. Nevertheless, our estimates suggest that little or no new CO2-emitting infrastructure can be commissioned, and that existing infrastructure may need to be retired early (or be retrofitted with carbon capture and storage technology) in order to meet the Paris Agreement climate goals17. Given the asset value per tonne of committed emissions, we suggest that the most cost-effective premature infrastructure retirements will be in the electricity and industry sectors, if non-emitting alternatives are available and affordable4,18.

A case study showing highly traceable sources of bacteria on surfaces of university buildings.

University students predominantly spend their time indoors, where prolonged exposure raises the risk of contact with microorganisms of concern. However, our knowledge about the microbial community characteristics on university campus and their underpinnings is limited. To address it, we characterized bacterial communities from the surfaces of various built environments typical of a university campus, including cafeterias, classrooms, dormitories, offices, meeting rooms, and restrooms, in addition to human skin. The classrooms harbored the highest α-diversity, while the cafeterias had the lowest α-diversity. The bacterial community composition varied significantly across different building types. Proteobacteria, Actinobacteria, Firmicutes, Bacteroidetes, and Cyanobacteria were common phyla in university buildings, accounting for more than 90 % of total abundance. Staphylococcus aureus was the most abundant potential pathogen in classrooms, dormitories, offices, restrooms, and on human skin, indicating a potential risk for skin disease infections in these buildings. We further developed a new quantitative pathogenic risk assessment method according to the threat of pathogens to humans and found that classrooms exhibited the highest potential risk. The fast expectation-maximization algorithm identified 59 %-86 % of bacterial sources in buildings, with the human skin as the largest bacterial source for most buildings. As the sources of bacteria were highly traceable, we showed that homogeneous selection, dispersal limitation, and ecological drift were major ecological forces that drove community assembly. Our findings have important implications for predicting the distribution and sources of indoor dust bacterial communities on university campus.

Impacts of climate change on future air quality and human health in China.

In recent years, air pollution has caused more than 1 million deaths per year in China, making it a major focus of public health efforts. However, future climate change may exacerbate such human health impacts by increasing the frequency and duration of weather conditions that enhance air pollution exposure. Here, we use a combination of climate, air quality, and epidemiological models to assess future air pollution deaths in a changing climate under Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5). We find that, assuming pollution emissions and population are held constant at current levels, climate change would adversely affect future air quality for >85% of China's population (∼55% of land area) by the middle of the century, and would increase by 3% and 4% the population-weighted average concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and ozone, respectively. As a result, we estimate an additional 12,100 and 8,900 Chinese (95% confidence interval: 10,300 to 13,800 and 2,300 to 14,700, respectively) will die per year from PM2.5 and ozone exposure, respectively. The important underlying climate mechanisms are changes in extreme conditions such as atmospheric stagnation and heat waves (contributing 39% and 6%, respectively, to the increase in mortality). Additionally, greater vulnerability of China's aging population will further increase the estimated deaths from PM2.5 and ozone in 2050 by factors of 1 and 3, respectively. Our results indicate that climate change and more intense extremes are likely to increase the risk of severe pollution events in China. Managing air quality in China in a changing climate will thus become more challenging.

Drivers of improved PM2.5 air quality in China from 2013 to 2017.

From 2013 to 2017, with the implementation of the toughest-ever clean air policy in China, significant declines in fine particle (PM2.5) concentrations occurred nationwide. Here we estimate the drivers of the improved PM2.5 air quality and the associated health benefits in China from 2013 to 2017 based on a measure-specific integrated evaluation approach, which combines a bottom-up emission inventory, a chemical transport model, and epidemiological exposure-response functions. The estimated national population-weighted annual mean PM2.5 concentrations decreased from 61.8 (95%CI: 53.3-70.0) to 42.0 µg/m3 (95% CI: 35.7-48.6) in 5 y, with dominant contributions from anthropogenic emission abatements. Although interannual meteorological variations could significantly alter PM2.5 concentrations, the corresponding effects on the 5-y trends were relatively small. The measure-by-measure evaluation indicated that strengthening industrial emission standards (power plants and emission-intensive industrial sectors), upgrades on industrial boilers, phasing out outdated industrial capacities, and promoting clean fuels in the residential sector were major effective measures in reducing PM2.5 pollution and health burdens. These measures were estimated to contribute to 6.6- (95% CI: 5.9-7.1), 4.4- (95% CI: 3.8-4.9), 2.8- (95% CI: 2.5-3.0), and 2.2- (95% CI: 2.0-2.5) µg/m3 declines in the national PM2.5 concentration in 2017, respectively, and further reduced PM2.5-attributable excess deaths by 0.37 million (95% CI: 0.35-0.39), or 92% of the total avoided deaths. Our study confirms the effectiveness of China's recent clean air actions, and the measure-by-measure evaluation provides insights into future clean air policy making in China and in other developing and polluting countries.

Atmospheric methane removal: a research agenda.

Atmospheric methane removal (e.g. in situ methane oxidation to carbon dioxide) may be needed to offset continued methane release and limit the global warming contribution of this potent greenhouse gas. Because mitigating most anthropogenic emissions of methane is uncertain this century, and sudden methane releases from the Arctic or elsewhere cannot be excluded, technologies for methane removal or oxidation may be required. Carbon dioxide removal has an increasingly well-established research agenda and technological foundation. No similar framework exists for methane removal. We believe that a research agenda for negative methane emissions-'removal' or atmospheric methane oxidation-is needed. We outline some considerations for such an agenda here, including a proposed Methane Removal Model Intercomparison Project (MR-MIP). This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Rising methane: is warming feeding warming? (part 1)'.

Reduced carbon emission estimates from fossil fuel combustion and cement production in China.

Nearly three-quarters of the growth in global carbon emissions from the burning of fossil fuels and cement production between 2010 and 2012 occurred in China. Yet estimates of Chinese emissions remain subject to large uncertainty; inventories of China's total fossil fuel carbon emissions in 2008 differ by 0.3 gigatonnes of carbon, or 15 per cent. The primary sources of this uncertainty are conflicting estimates of energy consumption and emission factors, the latter being uncertain because of very few actual measurements representative of the mix of Chinese fuels. Here we re-evaluate China's carbon emissions using updated and harmonized energy consumption and clinker production data and two new and comprehensive sets of measured emission factors for Chinese coal. We find that total energy consumption in China was 10 per cent higher in 2000-2012 than the value reported by China's national statistics, that emission factors for Chinese coal are on average 40 per cent lower than the default values recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and that emissions from China's cement production are 45 per cent less than recent estimates. Altogether, our revised estimate of China's CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production is 2.49 gigatonnes of carbon (2 standard deviations = ±7.3 per cent) in 2013, which is 14 per cent lower than the emissions reported by other prominent inventories. Over the full period 2000 to 2013, our revised estimates are 2.9 gigatonnes of carbon less than previous estimates of China's cumulative carbon emissions. Our findings suggest that overestimation of China's emissions in 2000-2013 may be larger than China's estimated total forest sink in 1990-2007 (2.66 gigatonnes of carbon) or China's land carbon sink in 2000-2009 (2.6 gigatonnes of carbon).

Current Emissions and Future Mitigation Pathways of Coal-Fired Power Plants in China from 2010 to 2030.

As the largest energy infrastructure in China, the power sector consumed approximately half of China's coal over the past decade and threatened air quality and greenhouse gas (GHG) abatement targets. In this work, we assessed the evolution of coal-fired power plants and associated emissions in China during 2010-2030 by using a unit-based emission projection model, which integrated the historical power plant information, turnover of the future power plant fleet, and evolution of end-of-pipe control technologies. We found that, driven by stringent environmental legislation, SO2, NO x, and PM2.5 (particulate matter less than 2.5 µm in diameter) emissions from coal-fired power plants decreased by 49%, 45%, and 24%, respectively, during 2010-2015, compared to 15% increase in CO2 emissions. In contrast to ever-increasing CO2 emissions until 2030 under current energy development planning, we found that aggressive energy development planning could curb CO2 emissions from the peak before 2030. Owing to the implementation of a "near zero" emission control policy, we projected emissions of air pollutants will significantly decrease during 2016-2030. Early retirement of small and low-efficiency power plants would further reduce air pollutants and CO2 emissions. Our study explored various mitigation pathways for China's coal-fired power plants, which could reduce coal consumption, air pollutants, and CO2 emissions and improve energy efficiency.

Infrastructure Shapes Differences in the Carbon Intensities of Chinese Cities.

The carbon intensity of economic activity, or CO2 emissions per unit GDP, is a key indicator of the climate impacts of a given activity, business, or region. Although it is well-known that the carbon intensity of countries varies widely according to their level of economic development and dominant industries, few studies have assessed disparities in carbon intensity at the level of cities due to limited availability of data. Here, we present a detailed new inventory of emissions for 337 Chinese cities (every city in mainland China including 333 prefecture-level divisions and 4 province-level cities, Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, and Chongqing) in 2013, which we use to evaluate differences of carbon intensity between cities and the causes of those differences. We find that cities' average carbon intensity is 0.84 kg of CO2 per dollar of gross domestic product (kgCO2 per $GDP), but individual cities span a large range: from 0.09 to 7.86 kgCO2 per $GDP (coefficient of variation of 25%). Further analysis of economic and technological drivers of variations in cities' carbon intensity reveals that the differences are largely due to disparities in cities' economic structure that can in turn be traced to past investment-led growth. These patterns suggest that "carbon lock-in" via socio-economic and infrastructural inertia may slow China's efforts to reduce emissions from activities in urban areas. Policy instruments targeted to accelerate the transition of urban economies from investment-led to consumption-led growth may thus be crucial to China meeting both its economic and climate targets.

Satellite reveals a steep decline in China's CO2 emissions in early 2022.

Response actions to the coronavirus disease 2019 perturbed economies and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. The Omicron variant that emerged in 2022 caused more substantial infections than in 2020 and 2021 but it has not yet been ascertained whether Omicron interrupted the temporary post-2021 rebound of CO2 emissions. Here, using satellite nitrogen dioxide observations combined with atmospheric inversion, we show a larger decline in China's CO2 emissions between January and April 2022 than in those months during the first wave of 2020. China's CO2 emissions are estimated to have decreased by 15% (equivalent to -244.3 million metric tons of CO2) during the 2022 lockdown, greater than the 9% reduction during the 2020 lockdown. Omicron affected most of the populated and industrial provinces in 2022, hindering China's CO2 emissions rebound starting from 2021. China's emission variations agreed with downstream CO2 concentration changes, indicating a potential to monitor CO2 emissions by integrating satellite and ground measurements.

CarbonMonitor-Power near-real-time monitoring of global power generation on hourly to daily scales.

We constructed a frequently updated, near-real-time global power generation dataset: CarbonMonitor-Power since January, 2016 at national levels with near-global coverage and hourly-to-daily time resolution. The data presented here are collected from 37 countries across all continents for eight source groups, including three types of fossil sources (coal, gas, and oil), nuclear energy and four groups of renewable energy sources (solar energy, wind energy, hydro energy and other renewables including biomass, geothermal, etc.). The global near-real-time power dataset shows the dynamics of the global power system, including its hourly, daily, weekly and seasonal patterns as influenced by daily periodical activities, weekends, seasonal cycles, regular and irregular events (i.e., holidays) and extreme events (i.e., the COVID-19 pandemic). The CarbonMonitor-Power dataset reveals that the COVID-19 pandemic caused strong disruptions in some countries (i.e., China and India), leading to a temporary or long-lasting shift to low carbon intensity, while it had only little impact in some other countries (i.e., Australia). This dataset offers a large range of opportunities for power-related scientific research and policy-making.

Record-high CO2 emissions from boreal fires in 2021.

Extreme wildfires are becoming more common and increasingly affecting Earth's climate. Wildfires in boreal forests have attracted much less attention than those in tropical forests, although boreal forests are one of the most extensive biomes on Earth and are experiencing the fastest warming. We used a satellite-based atmospheric inversion system to monitor fire emissions in boreal forests. Wildfires are rapidly expanding into boreal forests with emerging warmer and drier fire seasons. Boreal fires, typically accounting for 10% of global fire carbon dioxide emissions, contributed 23% (0.48 billion metric tons of carbon) in 2021, by far the highest fraction since 2000. 2021 was an abnormal year because North American and Eurasian boreal forests synchronously experienced their greatest water deficit. Increasing numbers of extreme boreal fires and stronger climate-fire feedbacks challenge climate mitigation efforts.

Co-benefits of CO2 emission reduction from China's clean air actions between 2013-2020.

Climate change mitigation measures can yield substantial air quality improvements while emerging clean air measures in developing countries can also lead to CO2 emission mitigation co-benefits by affecting the local energy system. Here, we evaluate the effect of China's stringent clean air actions on its energy use and CO2 emissions from 2013-2020. We find that widespread phase-out and upgrades of outdated, polluting, and inefficient combustion facilities during clean air actions have promoted the transformation of the country's energy system. The co-benefits of China's clean air measures far outweigh the additional CO2 emissions of end-of-pipe devices, realizing a net accumulative reduction of 2.43 Gt CO2 from 2013-2020, exceeding the accumulated CO2 emission increase in China (2.03 Gt CO2) during the same period. Our study indicates that China's efforts to tackle air pollution induce considerable climate benefit, and measures with remarkable CO2 reduction co-benefits deserve further attention in future policy design.

Land-use emissions embodied in international trade.

International trade separates consumption of goods from related environmental impacts, including greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture and land-use change (together referred to as "land-use emissions"). Through use of new emissions estimates and a multiregional input-output model, we evaluated land-use emissions embodied in global trade from 2004 to 2017. Annually, 27% of land-use emissions and 22% of agricultural land are related to agricultural products ultimately consumed in a different region from where they were produced. Roughly three-quarters of embodied emissions are from land-use change, with the largest transfers from lower-income countries such as Brazil, Indonesia, and Argentina to more industrialized regions such as Europe, the United States, and China. Mitigation of global land-use emissions and sustainable development may thus depend on improving the transparency of supply chains.

Energy and emission pathways towards PM2.5 air quality attainment in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region by 2030.

In 2013, the Chinese government announced its first air quality standard for PM2.5 (particulate matter with a diameter < 2.5 µm) which requires annual mean PM2.5 concentration to achieve the World Health Organization (WHO) interim target 1 of 35 µg/m3 nationwide including the most polluted region of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH). Here, we explore the future mitigation pathways for the BTH region to investigate the possibility of air quality attainment by 2030 in that region, by developing two energy scenarios (i.e., baseline energy scenario and enhanced energy scenario) and two end-of-pipe scenarios (i.e., business as usual scenario and best available technology scenario) and simulating future air quality for different scenarios using the WRF/CMAQ model. Results showed that without stringent energy and industrial structure adjustment, even the most advanced end-of-pipe technologies did not allow the BTH region to attain the 35 µg/m3 target. Under the most stringent scenario that coupled the enhanced structure adjustment measures and the best available end-of-pipe measures, the emissions of SO2, NOx, PM2.5 and NMVOCs (nonmethane volatile organic compounds) were estimated to be reduced by 85%, 74%, 82% and 72%, respectively, in 2030 over the BTH region. As a result, the simulated annual mean PM2.5 concentrations in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei could decline to 23, 28 and 28 µg/m3, respectively, all of which achieved the 35 µg/m3 target by 2030. Our study identified a feasible pathway to achieve the 2030 target and highlighted the importance of reshaping the energy and industrial structure of the BTH region for future air pollution mitigation.

[Study on the mechanisms of hazardous air pollutant emissions from green sand casting].

Analytic pyrolysis was conducted to simulate the heating conditions that green sand and bituminous coal would experience during metal casting process. The hazardous air pollutant (HAP) emissions from analytical pyrolysis were analyzed by GC-FID/MS. The major components of the HAP emissions included benzene, toluene, xylene (BTX), phenol, and naphthalene. These HAPs were generated from the pyrolysis of bituminous coal that was added as carbonaceous additives in the green sand. During TGA slow pyrolysis, HAPs were mainly generated at 350-700 degrees C. The yield of HAPs increased considerably when the coal was flash pyrolyzed. The HAP emissions from analytical pyrolysis exhibited some similarity in the compositions and distributions with those from actual casting processes. Compared with the conventional actual metal pouring emission tests, analytical pyrolysis techniques offered a fast and cost-effective way to establish the HAP emission inventories of green sand during metal casting.