Modelling Disease Progression of Multiple Sclerosis in a South Wales Cohort.

OBJECTIVES: The objective of this study was to model multiple sclerosis (MS) disease progression and compare disease trajectories by sex, age of onset, and year of diagnosis. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: Longitudinal EDSS scores (20,854 observations) were collected for 1,787 relapse-onset MS patients at MS clinics in South Wales and modelled using a multilevel model (MLM). The MLM adjusted for covariates (sex, age of onset, year of diagnosis, and disease-modifying treatments), and included interactions between baseline covariates and time variables. RESULTS: The optimal model was truncated at 30 years after disease onset and excluded EDSS recorded within 3 months of relapse. As expected, older age of onset was associated with faster disease progression at 15 years (effect size (ES): 0.75; CI: 0.63, 0.86; p: <0.001) and female-sex progressed more slowly at 15 years (ES: -0.43; CI: -0.68, -0.18; p: <0.001). Patients diagnosed more recently (defined as 2007-2011 and >2011) progressed more slowly than those diagnosed historically (<2006); (ES: -0.46; CI: -0.75, -0.16; p: 0.006) and (ES: -0.95; CI: -1.20, -0.70; p: <0.001), respectively. CONCLUSION: We present a novel model of MS outcomes, accounting for the non-linear trajectory of MS and effects of baseline covariates, validating well-known risk factors (sex and age of onset) associated with disease progression. Also, patients diagnosed more recently progressed more slowly than those diagnosed historically.

CSF-resident CD4+ T-cells display a distinct gene expression profile with relevance to immune surveillance and multiple sclerosis.

The CNS has traditionally been considered an immune privileged site, but is now understood to have a system of immune surveillance, predominantly involving CD4+ T-cells. Identifying functional differences between CNS and blood CD4+ T-cells, therefore, have relevance to CNS immune surveillance as well as to neurological conditions, such as multiple sclerosis, in which CD4+ T-cells play a central role. Here, CD4+ T-cells were purified from CSF and blood from 21 patients with newly diagnosed treatment-naïve multiple sclerosis and 20 individuals with non-inflammatory disorders using fluorescence-activated cell sorting, and their transcriptomes were profiled by RNA sequencing. Paired comparisons between CD4+ T-cells from CSF and blood identified 5156 differentially expressed genes in controls and 4263 differentially expressed in multiple sclerosis patients at false discovery rate <5%. Differential expression analysis of CD4+ T-cells collected from the CSF highlighted genes involved in migration, activation, cholesterol biosynthesis and signalling, including those with known relevance to multiple sclerosis pathogenesis and treatment. Expression of markers of CD4+ T-cell subtypes suggested an increased proportion of Th1 and Th17 cells in CSF. Gene ontology terms significant only in multiple sclerosis were predominantly those involved in cellular proliferation. A two-way comparison of CSF versus blood CD4+ T-cells in multiple sclerosis compared with non-inflammatory disorder controls identified four significant genes at false discovery rate <5% (CYP51A1, LRRD1, YES1 and PASK), further implicating cholesterol biosynthesis and migration mechanisms. Analysis of CSF CD4+ T-cells in an extended cohort of multiple sclerosis cases (total N = 41) compared with non-inflammatory disorder controls (total N = 38) identified 140 differentially expressed genes at false discovery rate < 5%, many of which have known relevance to multiple sclerosis, including XBP1, BHLHE40, CD40LG, DPP4 and ITGB1. This study provides the largest transcriptomic analysis of purified cell subpopulations in CSF to date and has relevance for the understanding of CNS immune surveillance, as well as multiple sclerosis pathogenesis and treatment discovery.

Clinical Outcomes of Escalation vs Early Intensive Disease-Modifying Therapy in Patients With Multiple Sclerosis.

Importance: Uncertainty remains about how aggressively to treat early multiple sclerosis. High-efficacy disease-modifying therapies (DMTs) are often reserved for individuals expressing poor prognostic features at baseline. Objective: To analyze long-term outcomes in a population-based cohort according to initial treatment strategy. Design, Setting and Participants: In this cohort study, data were derived from January 1998 to December 2016, and analysis was performed in January 2017. From a total of 720 patients prescribed a DMT, 592 (82%) were included in analysis. Reasons for exclusion were first treated elsewhere or privately (n = 39), clinical trial participant (n = 25), and insufficient clinical data (n = 45). Exposures: Patients were classified according to first-line treatment strategy: high-efficacy (early intensive treatment [EIT]) or moderate-efficacy DMT (escalation [ESC]). Main Outcomes and Measures: Primary outcome was 5-year change in Expanded Disability Status Scale score. Secondary outcome was time to sustained accumulation of disability (SAD). Models were adjusted for sex, age at treatment, year of starting DMT, and escalation to high-efficacy treatment in the ESC group. Results: Mean (SD) age of 592 patients at symptom onset was 27.0 (9.4) years. Mean (SD) 5-year change in Expanded Disability Status Scale score was lower in the EIT group than the ESC group (0.3 [1.5] vs 1.2 [1.5]); this remained significant after adjustment for relevant covariates (ß = -0.85; 95% CI, -1.38 to -0.32; P = .002). Median (95% CI) time to SAD was 6.0 (3.17-9.16) years for EIT and 3.14 (2.77-4.00) years for ESC (P = .05). For those within the ESC group who escalated to high-efficacy DMT as second-line treatment, median (95% CI) time to SAD was 3.3 years (1.8-5.6; compared with EIT group log-rank test P = .08). After adjustment for relevant covariates, there was no difference in hazard of SAD between the groups. However, 60% of those who escalated to high-efficacy DMTs were observed to develop SAD while still receiving initial moderate-efficacy treatment before escalation. Conclusions and Relevance: In a real-life setting, long-term outcomes were more favorable following early intensive therapy vs first-line moderate-efficacy DMT. Contemporary surveillance strategies and escalation protocols may be insufficiently responsive. This finding is particularly relevant as patients in real-world practice are typically selected for an EIT approach to therapy on the basis of clinical and radiological features predictive of a poor outcome. These data support the need for a prospective randomized clinical trial.