Medicaid expansion in California and breast cancer incidence across neighborhoods with varying social vulnerabilities.

PURPOSE: To investigate changes in breast cancer incidence rates associated with Medicaid expansion in California. METHODS: We extracted yearly census tract-level population counts and cases of breast cancer diagnosed among women aged between 20 and 64 years in California during years 2010-2017. Census tracts were classified into low, medium and high groups according to their social vulnerability index (SVI). Using a difference-in-difference (DID) approach with Poisson regression models, we estimated the incidence rate, incidence rate ratio (IRR) during the pre- (2010-2013) and post-expansion periods (2014-2017), and the relative IRR (DID estimates) across three groups of neighborhoods. RESULTS: Prior to the Medicaid expansion, the overall incidence rate was 93.61, 122.03, and 151.12 cases per 100,000 persons among tracts with high, medium, and low-SVI, respectively; and was 96.49, 122.07, and 151.66 cases per 100,000 persons during the post-expansion period, respectively. The IRR between high and low vulnerability neighborhoods was 0.62 and 0.64 in the pre- and post-expansion period, respectively, and the relative IRR was 1.03 (95% CI 1.00 to 1.06, p = 0.026). In addition, significant DID estimate was only found for localized breast cancer (relative IRR = 1.05; 95% CI, 1.01 to 1.09, p = 0.049) between high and low-SVI neighborhoods, not for regional and distant cancer stage. CONCLUSIONS: The Medicaid expansion had differential impact on breast cancer incidence across neighborhoods in California, with the most pronounced increase found for localized cancer stage in high-SVI neighborhoods. Significant pre-post change was only found for localized breast cancer between high and low-SVI neighborhoods.

Examining the Trajectory of Health-Related Quality of Life among Coronavirus Disease Patients.

BACKGROUND: Recent studies have reported a reduction in health-related quality of life (HR-QoL) among post-coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients. However, there remains a gap in research examining the heterogeneity and determinants of HR-QoL trajectory in these patients. OBJECTIVE: To describe and identify factors explaining the variability in HR-QoL trajectories among a cohort of patients with history of COVID-19. DESIGN: A prospective study using data from a cohort of COVID-19 patients enrolled into a registry established at a health system in New York City. PARTICIPANTS: Participants were enrolled from July 2020 to June 2022, and completed a baseline evaluation and two follow-up visits at 6 and 12 months. METHODS: We assessed HR-QoL with the 29-item Patient Reported Outcomes Measurement Information System instrument, which was summarized into mental and physical health domains. We performed latent class growth and multinomial logistic regression to examine trajectories of HR-QoL and identify factors associated with specific trajectories. RESULTS: The study included 588 individuals with a median age of 52 years, 65% female, 54% White, 18% Black, and 18% Hispanic. We identified five physical health trajectories and four mental health trajectories. Female gender, having pre-existing hypertension, cardiovascular disease, asthma, and hospitalization for acute COVID-19 were independently associated with lower physical health. In addition, patients with increasing body mass index were more likely to experience lower physical health over time. Female gender, younger age, pre-existing asthma, arthritis and cardiovascular disease were associated with poor mental health. CONCLUSIONS: We found significant heterogeneity of HR-QoL after COVID-19, with women and patients with specific comorbidities at increased risk of lower HR-QoL. Implementation of targeted psychological and physical interventions is crucial for enhancing the quality of life of this patient population.

Doubly robust estimation and sensitivity analysis for marginal structural quantile models.

The marginal structure quantile model (MSQM) provides a unique lens to understand the causal effect of a time-varying treatment on the full distribution of potential outcomes. Under the semiparametric framework, we derive the efficiency influence function for the MSQM, from which a new doubly robust estimator is proposed for point estimation and inference. We show that the doubly robust estimator is consistent if either of the models associated with treatment assignment or the potential outcome distributions is correctly specified, and is semiparametric efficient if both models are correct. To implement the doubly robust MSQM estimator, we propose to solve a smoothed estimating equation to facilitate efficient computation of the point and variance estimates. In addition, we develop a confounding function approach to investigate the sensitivity of several MSQM estimators when the sequential ignorability assumption is violated. Extensive simulations are conducted to examine the finite-sample performance characteristics of the proposed methods. We apply the proposed methods to the Yale New Haven Health System Electronic Health Record data to study the effect of antihypertensive medications to patients with severe hypertension and assess the robustness of the findings to unmeasured baseline and time-varying confounding.

A new method for clustered survival data: Estimation of treatment effect heterogeneity and variable selection.

We recently developed a new method random-intercept accelerated failure time model with Bayesian additive regression trees (riAFT-BART) to draw causal inferences about population treatment effect on patient survival from clustered and censored survival data while accounting for the multilevel data structure. The practical utility of this method goes beyond the estimation of population average treatment effect. In this work, we exposit how riAFT-BART can be used to solve two important statistical questions with clustered survival data: estimating the treatment effect heterogeneity and variable selection. Leveraging the likelihood-based machine learning, we describe a way in which we can draw posterior samples of the individual survival treatment effect from riAFT-BART model runs, and use the drawn posterior samples to perform an exploratory treatment effect heterogeneity analysis to identify subpopulations who may experience differential treatment effects than population average effects. There is sparse literature on methods for variable selection among clustered and censored survival data, particularly ones using flexible modeling techniques. We propose a permutation-based approach using the predictor's variable inclusion proportion supplied by the riAFT-BART model for variable selection. To address the missing data issue frequently encountered in health databases, we propose a strategy to combine bootstrap imputation and riAFT-BART for variable selection among incomplete clustered survival data. We conduct an expansive simulation study to examine the practical operating characteristics of our proposed methods, and provide empirical evidence that our proposed methods perform better than several existing methods across a wide range of data scenarios. Finally, we demonstrate the methods via a case study of predictors for in-hospital mortality among severe COVID-19 patients and estimating the heterogeneous treatment effects of three COVID-specific medications. The methods developed in this work are readily available in the R ${\textsf {R}}$ package riAFTBART $\textsf {riAFTBART}$ .

Prospective Cohort Study to Investigate the Safety of Preoperative Tumor Necrosis Factor Inhibitor Exposure in Patients With Inflammatory Bowel Disease Undergoing Intra-abdominal Surgery.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Whether preoperative treatment of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) with tumor necrosis factor inhibitors (TNFis) increases the risk of postoperative infectious complications remains controversial. The primary aim of this study was to determine whether preoperative exposure to TNFis is an independent risk factor for postoperative infectious complications within 30 days of surgery. METHODS: We conducted a multicenter prospective observational study of patients with IBD undergoing intra-abdominal surgery across 17 sites from the Crohn's & Colitis Foundation Clinical Research Alliance. Infectious complications were categorized as surgical site infections (SSIs) or non-SSIs. Current TNFi exposure was defined as use within 12 weeks of surgery, and serum was collected for drug-level analyses. Multivariable models for occurrence of the primary outcome, any infection, or SSI were adjusted by predefined covariates (age, sex, preoperative steroid use, and disease type), baseline variables significantly associated (P < .05) with any infection or SSI separately, and TNFi exposure status. Exploratory models used TNFi exposure based on serum drug concentration. RESULTS: A total of 947 patients were enrolled from September 2014 through June 2017. Current TNFi exposure was reported by 382 patients. Any infection (18.1% vs 20.2%, P = .469) and SSI (12.0% vs 12.6%, P = .889) rates were similar in patients currently exposed to TNFis and those unexposed. In multivariable analysis, current TNFi exposure was not associated with any infection (odds ratio, 1.050; 95% confidence interval, 0.716-1.535) or SSI (odds ratio, 1.249; 95% confidence interval, 0.793-1.960). Detectable TNFi drug concentration was not associated with any infection or SSI. CONCLUSIONS: Preoperative TNFi exposure was not associated with postoperative infectious complications in a large prospective multicenter cohort.

A flexible approach for causal inference with multiple treatments and clustered survival outcomes.

When drawing causal inferences about the effects of multiple treatments on clustered survival outcomes using observational data, we need to address implications of the multilevel data structure, multiple treatments, censoring, and unmeasured confounding for causal analyses. Few off-the-shelf causal inference tools are available to simultaneously tackle these issues. We develop a flexible random-intercept accelerated failure time model, in which we use Bayesian additive regression trees to capture arbitrarily complex relationships between censored survival times and pre-treatment covariates and use the random intercepts to capture cluster-specific main effects. We develop an efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm to draw posterior inferences about the population survival effects of multiple treatments and examine the variability in cluster-level effects. We further propose an interpretable sensitivity analysis approach to evaluate the sensitivity of drawn causal inferences about treatment effect to the potential magnitude of departure from the causal assumption of no unmeasured confounding. Expansive simulations empirically validate and demonstrate good practical operating characteristics of our proposed methods. Applying the proposed methods to a dataset on older high-risk localized prostate cancer patients drawn from the National Cancer Database, we evaluate the comparative effects of three treatment approaches on patient survival, and assess the ramifications of potential unmeasured confounding. The methods developed in this work are readily available in the R $$ \mathsf{R}\kern.15em $$ package riAFTBART $$ \mathsf{riAFTBART} $$ .

A flexible approach for variable selection in large-scale healthcare database studies with missing covariate and outcome data.

BACKGROUND: Prior work has shown that combining bootstrap imputation with tree-based machine learning variable selection methods can provide good performances achievable on fully observed data when covariate and outcome data are missing at random (MAR). This approach however is computationally expensive, especially on large-scale datasets. METHODS: We propose an inference-based method, called RR-BART, which leverages the likelihood-based Bayesian machine learning technique, Bayesian additive regression trees, and uses Rubin's rule to combine the estimates and variances of the variable importance measures on multiply imputed datasets for variable selection in the presence of MAR data. We conduct a representative simulation study to investigate the practical operating characteristics of RR-BART, and compare it with the bootstrap imputation based methods. We further demonstrate the methods via a case study of risk factors for 3-year incidence of metabolic syndrome among middle-aged women using data from the Study of Women's Health Across the Nation (SWAN). RESULTS: The simulation study suggests that even in complex conditions of nonlinearity and nonadditivity with a large percentage of missingness, RR-BART can reasonably recover both prediction and variable selection performances, achievable on the fully observed data. RR-BART provides the best performance that the bootstrap imputation based methods can achieve with the optimal selection threshold value. In addition, RR-BART demonstrates a substantially stronger ability of detecting discrete predictors. Furthermore, RR-BART offers substantial computational savings. When implemented on the SWAN data, RR-BART adds to the literature by selecting a set of predictors that had been less commonly identified as risk factors but had substantial biological justifications. CONCLUSION: The proposed variable selection method for MAR data, RR-BART, offers both computational efficiency and good operating characteristics and is utilitarian in large-scale healthcare database studies.

De Novo Ostomy Placement Is Associated with Increased Outpatient Opioid Use In Patients with Inflammatory Bowel Disease.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: Opioid use is associated with poor outcomes in patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). We aimed to identify novel factors associated with increased outpatient opioid (OPRx) use following IBD-related hospitalization. METHODS: This was a retrospective cohort study of IBD patients ≥ 18 years old, hospitalized during 2018. The primary outcome was receiving ≥ 1(OPRx) in the year following index hospitalization (IH), excluding prescriptions written within 2 weeks of discharge. Secondary outcomes included having 1-2 vs ≥ 3 OPRx and rates of healthcare utilization. Univariate and multivariate analyses tested associations with OPRx. RESULTS: Of 526 patients analyzed, 209 (40%) received at least 1 OPRx; with a median of 2 [1-3] OPRx. Presence or placement of ostomy at IH, exposure to opioids during IH, ulcerative colitis (UC), mental health comorbidities, admission for surgery and managed on the surgical service, and IBD surgery within 1 year prior to IH were associated with ≥ 1 OPRx on univariate analysis. On multivariable analysis, UC, ostomy placement during IH, anxiety, and inpatient opioid exposure were independently associated with ≥ 1 OPRx. A majority (> 70%) of both inpatient and outpatient opioid prescriptions were written by surgeons. Patients requiring ≥ 3 OPRx had the highest rates of unplanned IBD surgery (56% p = 0.04), all-cause repeat hospitalization (81%, p = 0.003), and IBD-related repeat hospitalization (77%, p = 0.007) in the year following IH. CONCLUSIONS: A multimodal approach to pain management for IBD patients, as well as increased recognition that any patient with a de novo ostomy is at particular risk of opioid use, is needed.

Estimating heterogeneous survival treatment effect in observational data using machine learning.

Methods for estimating heterogeneous treatment effect in observational data have largely focused on continuous or binary outcomes, and have been relatively less vetted with survival outcomes. Using flexible machine learning methods in the counterfactual framework is a promising approach to address challenges due to complex individual characteristics, to which treatments need to be tailored. To evaluate the operating characteristics of recent survival machine learning methods for the estimation of treatment effect heterogeneity and inform better practice, we carry out a comprehensive simulation study presenting a wide range of settings describing confounded heterogeneous survival treatment effects and varying degrees of covariate overlap. Our results suggest that the nonparametric Bayesian Additive Regression Trees within the framework of accelerated failure time model (AFT-BART-NP) consistently yields the best performance, in terms of bias, precision, and expected regret. Moreover, the credible interval estimators from AFT-BART-NP provide close to nominal frequentist coverage for the individual survival treatment effect when the covariate overlap is at least moderate. Including a nonparametrically estimated propensity score as an additional fixed covariate in the AFT-BART-NP model formulation can further improve its efficiency and frequentist coverage. Finally, we demonstrate the application of flexible causal machine learning estimators through a comprehensive case study examining the heterogeneous survival effects of two radiotherapy approaches for localized high-risk prostate cancer.

Examining the role of healthcare access in racial/ethnic disparities in receipt of provider-patient discussions about smoking: A latent class analysis.

Using insurance as a single indicator of healthcare access in examining the association between race/ethnicity and healthcare encounter-based interventions for smoking may not be adequate. In this study, we assessed the role of healthcare access using multifactorial measures in accounting for racial/ethnic disparities in the receipt of provider-patient discussions, defined as either being asked about smoking or advised to quit smoking by providers. We identified adult current smokers from the 2015 National Health Interview Survey. We first conducted a latent class analysis (LCA) to identify the underlying patterns of healthcare access measured by 13 indicators of healthcare access and utilization. We then used a propensity score - based weighting approach to examine racial/ethnic disparities in receiving provider-patient discussions about smoking or quitting in stratified groups by the distinct healthcare access clusters. Out of the 4134 adult current smokers who visited a doctor or a healthcare provider during the past 12 months, 3265 (79.90%) participants were classified as having high healthcare access and 869 (20.10%) participants as having low healthcare access. Compared to non-Hispanic whites, Hispanics had significantly lower odds of being asked about smoking (OR 0.46, 95% CI (0.27-0.77)) and being advised to quit (OR 0.57, 95% CI (0.34-0.97)) in the low access group, but neither association was significant in the high access group. In addition to increasing health insurance coverage, reducing other healthcare access barriers for Hispanics will likely facilitate provider-patient discussion and promote tobacco cessation among Hispanic smokers.

Quantile Regression Forests to Identify Determinants of Neighborhood Stroke Prevalence in 500 Cities in the USA: Implications for Neighborhoods with High Prevalence.

Stroke exerts a massive burden on the US health and economy. Place-based evidence is increasingly recognized as a critical part of stroke management, but identifying the key determinants of neighborhood stroke prevalence and the underlying effect mechanisms is a topic that has been treated sparingly in the literature. We aim to fill in the research gaps with a study focusing on urban health. We develop and apply analytical approaches to address two challenges. First, domain expertise on drivers of neighborhood-level stroke outcomes is limited. Second, commonly used linear regression methods may provide incomplete and biased conclusions. We created a new neighborhood health data set at census tract level by pooling information from multiple sources. We developed and applied a machine learning-based quantile regression method to uncover crucial neighborhood characteristics for neighborhood stroke outcomes among vulnerable neighborhoods burdened with high prevalence of stroke. Neighborhoods with a larger share of non-Hispanic blacks, older adults, or people with insufficient sleep tended to have a higher prevalence of stroke, whereas neighborhoods with a higher socio-economic status in terms of income and education had a lower prevalence of stroke. The effects of five major determinants varied geographically and were significantly stronger among neighborhoods with high prevalence of stroke. Highly flexible machine learning identifies true drivers of neighborhood cardiovascular health outcomes from wide-ranging information in an agnostic and reproducible way. The identified major determinants and the effect mechanisms can provide important avenues for prioritizing and allocating resources to develop optimal community-level interventions for stroke prevention.

Ranking sociodemographic, health behavior, prevention, and environmental factors in predicting neighborhood cardiovascular health: A Bayesian machine learning approach.

Cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of death in the United States. While abundant research has been conducted to identify risk factors for cardiovascular disease at the individual level, less is known about factors that may influence population cardiovascular health outcomes at the neighborhood level. The purpose of this study is to use Bayesian Additive Regression Trees, a state-of-the-art machine learning approach, to rank sociodemographic, health behavior, prevention, and environmental factors in predicting neighborhood cardiovascular health. We created a new neighborhood health dataset by combining three datasets at the census tract level, including the 500 Cities Data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the 2011-2015 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates from the Census Bureau, and the 2015-2016 Environmental Justice Screening database from the Environmental Protection Agency in the United States. Results showed that neighborhood behavioral factors such as the proportions of people who are obese, do not have leisure-time physical activity, and have binge drinking emerged as top five predictors for most of the neighborhood cardiovascular health outcomes. Findings from this study would allow public health researchers and policymakers to prioritize community-based interventions and efficiently use limited resources to improve neighborhood cardiovascular health.

Identifying and assessing the impact of key neighborhood-level determinants on geographic variation in stroke: a machine learning and multilevel modeling approach.

BACKGROUND: Stroke is a chronic cardiovascular disease that puts major stresses on U.S. health and economy. The prevalence of stroke exhibits a strong geographical pattern at the state-level, where a cluster of southern states with a substantially higher prevalence of stroke has been called the stroke belt of the nation. Despite this recognition, the extent to which key neighborhood characteristics affect stroke prevalence remains to be further clarified. METHODS: We generated a new neighborhood health data set at the census tract level on nearly 27,000 tracts by pooling information from multiple data sources including the CDC's 500 Cities Project 2017 data release. We employed a two-stage modeling approach to understand how key neighborhood-level risk factors affect the neighborhood-level stroke prevalence in each state of the US. The first stage used a state-of-the-art Bayesian machine learning algorithm to identify key neighborhood-level determinants. The second stage applied a Bayesian multilevel modeling approach to describe how these key determinants explain the variability in stroke prevalence in each state. RESULTS: Neighborhoods with a larger proportion of older adults and non-Hispanic blacks were associated with neighborhoods with a higher prevalence of stroke. Higher median household income was linked to lower stroke prevalence. Ozone was found to be positively associated with stroke prevalence in 10 states, while negatively associated with stroke in five states. There was substantial variation in both the direction and magnitude of the associations between these four key factors with stroke prevalence across the states. CONCLUSIONS: When used in a principled variable selection framework, high-performance machine learning can identify key factors of neighborhood-level prevalence of stroke from wide-ranging information in a data-driven way. The Bayesian multilevel modeling approach provides a detailed view of the impact of key factors across the states. The identified major factors and their effect mechanisms can potentially aid policy makers in developing area-based stroke prevention strategies.

Identifying and understanding determinants of high healthcare costs for breast cancer: a quantile regression machine learning approach.

BACKGROUND: To identify and rank the importance of key determinants of high medical expenses among breast cancer patients and to understand the underlying effects of these determinants. METHODS: The Oncology Care Model (OCM) developed by the Center for Medicare & Medicaid Innovation were used. The OCM data provided to Mount Sinai on 2938 breast-cancer episodes included both baseline periods and three performance periods between Jan 1, 2012 and Jan 1, 2018. We included 11 variables representing information on treatment, demography and socio-economics status, in addition to episode expenditures. OCM data were collected from participating practices and payers. We applied a principled variable selection algorithm using a flexible tree-based machine learning technique, Quantile Regression Forests. RESULTS: We found that the use of chemotherapy drugs (versus hormonal therapy) and interval of days without chemotherapy predominantly affected medical expenses among high-cost breast cancer patients. The second-tier major determinants were comorbidities and age. Receipt of surgery or radiation, geographically adjusted relative cost and insurance type were also identified as important high-cost drivers. These factors had disproportionally larger effects upon the high-cost patients. CONCLUSIONS: Data-driven machine learning methods provide insights into the underlying web of factors driving up the costs for breast cancer care management. Results from our study may help inform population health management initiatives and allow policymakers to develop tailored interventions to meet the needs of those high-cost patients and to avoid waste of scarce resource.

Comparison of statistical and machine learning models for healthcare cost data: a simulation study motivated by Oncology Care Model (OCM) data.

BACKGROUND: The Oncology Care Model (OCM) was developed as a payment model to encourage participating practices to provide better-quality care for cancer patients at a lower cost. The risk-adjustment model used in OCM is a Gamma generalized linear model (Gamma GLM) with log-link. The predicted value of expense for the episodes identified for our academic medical center (AMC), based on the model fitted to the national data, did not correlate well with our observed expense. This motivated us to fit the Gamma GLM to our AMC data and compare it with two other flexible modeling methods: Random Forest (RF) and Partially Linear Additive Quantile Regression (PLAQR). We also performed a simulation study to assess comparative performance of these methods and examined the impact of non-linearity and interaction effects, two understudied aspects in the field of cost prediction. METHODS: The simulation was designed with an outcome of cost generated from four distributions: Gamma, Weibull, Log-normal with a heteroscedastic error term, and heavy-tailed. Simulation parameters both similar to and different from OCM data were considered. The performance metrics considered were the root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute prediction error (MAPE), and cost accuracy (CA). Bootstrap resampling was utilized to estimate the operating characteristics of the performance metrics, which were described by boxplots. RESULTS: RF attained the best performance with lowest RMSE, MAPE, and highest CA for most of the scenarios. When the models were misspecified, their performance was further differentiated. Model performance differed more for non-exponential than exponential outcome distributions. CONCLUSIONS: RF outperformed Gamma GLM and PLAQR in predicting overall and top decile costs. RF demonstrated improved prediction under various scenarios common in healthcare cost modeling. Additionally, RF did not require prespecification of outcome distribution, nonlinearity effect, or interaction terms. Therefore, RF appears to be the best tool to predict average cost. However, when the goal is to estimate extreme expenses, e.g., high cost episodes, the accuracy gained by RF versus its computational costs may need to be considered.

Causal comparative effectiveness analysis of dynamic continuous-time treatment initiation rules with sparsely measured outcomes and death.

Evidence supporting the current World Health Organization recommendations of early antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation for adolescents is inconclusive. We leverage a large observational data and compare, in terms of mortality and CD4 cell count, the dynamic treatment initiation rules for human immunodeficiency virus-infected adolescents. Our approaches extend the marginal structural model for estimating outcome distributions under dynamic treatment regimes, developed in Robins et al. (2008), to allow the causal comparisons of both specific regimes and regimes along a continuum. Furthermore, we propose strategies to address three challenges posed by the complex data set: continuous-time measurement of the treatment initiation process; sparse measurement of longitudinal outcomes of interest, leading to incomplete data; and censoring due to dropout and death. We derive a weighting strategy for continuous-time treatment initiation, use imputation to deal with missingness caused by sparse measurements and dropout, and define a composite outcome that incorporates both death and CD4 count as a basis for comparing treatment regimes. Our analysis suggests that immediate ART initiation leads to lower mortality and higher median values of the composite outcome, relative to other initiation rules.

Modeling the causal effect of treatment initiation time on survival: Application to HIV/TB co-infection.

The timing of antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation for HIV and tuberculosis (TB) co-infected patients needs to be considered carefully. CD4 cell count can be used to guide decision making about when to initiate ART. Evidence from recent randomized trials and observational studies generally supports early initiation but does not provide information about effects of initiation time on a continuous scale. In this article, we develop and apply a highly flexible structural proportional hazards model for characterizing the effect of treatment initiation time on a survival distribution. The model can be fitted using a weighted partial likelihood score function. Construction of both the score function and the weights must accommodate censoring of the treatment initiation time, the outcome, or both. The methods are applied to data on 4903 individuals with HIV/TB co-infection, derived from electronic health records in a large HIV care program in Kenya. We use a model formulation that flexibly captures the joint effects of ART initiation time and ART duration using natural cubic splines. The model is used to generate survival curves corresponding to specific treatment initiation times; and to identify optimal times for ART initiation for subgroups defined by CD4 count at time of TB diagnosis. Our findings potentially provide 'higher resolution' information about the relationship between ART timing and mortality, and about the differential effect of ART timing within CD4 subgroups.

The government of Kenya cash transfer for orphaned and vulnerable children: cross-sectional comparison of household and individual characteristics of those with and without.

BACKGROUND: The 'Cash Transfer to Orphans and Vulnerable Children' (CT-OVC) in Kenya is a government-supported program intended to provide regular and predictable cash transfers (CT) to poor households taking care of OVC. CT programs can be an effective means of alleviating poverty and facilitating the attainment of an adequate standard of living for people's health and well-being and other international human rights. The objective of this analysis was to compare the household socioeconomic status, school enrolment, nutritional status, and future outlook of orphaned and separated children receiving the CT compared to those not receiving a CT. METHODS: This project analyzes baseline data from a cohort of orphaned and separated children aged <19 years and non-orphaned children living in 300 randomly selected households (HH) in 8 Locations of Uasin Gishu County, Kenya. Baseline data were analyzed using multivariable logistic and Poisson regression comparing children in CT-HH vs. non-CT HH. Odds ratios are adjusted (AOR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) for guardian age and sex, child age and sex, and intra-HH correlation. RESULTS: Included in this analysis were data from 1481 children and adolescents in 300 HH (503 participants in CT, 978 in non-CT households). Overall there were 922 (62.3%) single orphans, 324 (21.9%) double orphans, and 210 (14.2%) participants had both parents alive and were living with them. Participants in CT-HH were less likely to have ≥2 pairs of clothes compared to non-CT HH (AOR: 0.32, 95% CI: 0.16-0.63). Those in CT HH were less likely to have missed any days of school in the preceding month (AOR: 0.62, 95% CI: 0.42-0.94) and those aged <1-18 years in CT-HH were less likely to have height stunting for their age (AOR: 0.65, 95% CI: 0.47-0.89). Participants aged at least 10 years in CT-HH were more likely to have a positive future outlook (AOR: 1.72, 95% CI: 1.12-2.65). CONCLUSIONS: Children and adolescents in households receiving the CT-OVC appear to have better nutritional status, school attendance, and optimism about the future, compared to those in households not receiving the CT, in spite of some evidence of continued material deprivation. Consideration should be given to expanding the program further.

Leveraging machine learning: Covariate-adjusted Bayesian adaptive randomization and subgroup discovery in multi-arm survival trials.

Clinical trials evaluate the safety and efficacy of treatments for specific diseases. Ensuring these studies are well-powered is crucial for identifying superior treatments. With the rise of personalized medicine, treatment efficacy may vary based on biomarker profiles. However, researchers often lack prior knowledge about which biomarkers are linked to varied treatment effects. Fixed or response-adaptive designs may not sufficiently account for heterogeneous patient characteristics, such as genetic diversity, potentially reducing the chance of selecting the optimal treatment for individuals. Recent advances in Bayesian nonparametric modeling pave the way for innovative trial designs that not only maintain robust power but also offer the flexibility to identify subgroups deriving greater benefits from specific treatments. Building on this inspiration, we introduce a Bayesian adaptive design for multi-arm trials focusing on time-to-event endpoints. We introduce a covariate-adjusted response adaptive randomization, updating treatment allocation probabilities grounded on causal effect estimates using a random intercept accelerated failure time BART model. After the trial concludes, we suggest employing a multi-response decision tree to pinpoint subgroups with varying treatment impacts. The performance of our design is then assessed via comprehensive simulations.

Estimating the causal effects of multiple intermittent treatments with application to COVID-19.

To draw real-world evidence about the comparative effectiveness of multiple time-varying treatments on patient survival, we develop a joint marginal structural survival model and a novel weighting strategy to account for time-varying confounding and censoring. Our methods formulate complex longitudinal treatments with multiple start/stop switches as the recurrent events with discontinuous intervals of treatment eligibility. We derive the weights in continuous time to handle a complex longitudinal dataset without the need to discretize or artificially align the measurement times. We further use machine learning models designed for censored survival data with time-varying covariates and the kernel function estimator of the baseline intensity to efficiently estimate the continuous-time weights. Our simulations demonstrate that the proposed methods provide better bias reduction and nominal coverage probability when analyzing observational longitudinal survival data with irregularly spaced time intervals, compared to conventional methods that require aligned measurement time points. We apply the proposed methods to a large-scale COVID-19 dataset to estimate the causal effects of several COVID-19 treatments on the composite of in-hospital mortality and ICU admission.