Index analysis: An approach to understand signal transduction with application to the EGFR signalling pathway.

In systems biology and pharmacology, large-scale kinetic models are used to study the dynamic response of a system to a specific input or stimulus. While in many applications, a deeper understanding of the input-response behaviour is highly desirable, it is often hindered by the large number of molecular species and the complexity of the interactions. An approach that identifies key molecular species for a given input-response relationship and characterises dynamic properties of states is therefore highly desirable. We introduce the concept of index analysis; it is based on different time- and state-dependent quantities (indices) to identify important dynamic characteristics of molecular species. All indices are defined for a specific pair of input and response variables as well as for a specific magnitude of the input. In application to a large-scale kinetic model of the EGFR signalling cascade, we identified different phases of signal transduction, the peculiar role of Phosphatase3 during signal activation and Ras recycling during signal onset. In addition, we discuss the challenges and pitfalls of interpreting the relevance of molecular species based on knock-out simulation studies, and provide an alternative view on conflicting results on the importance of parallel EGFR downstream pathways. Beyond the applications in model interpretation, index analysis is envisioned to be a valuable tool in model reduction.

Analysis of protrusion dynamics in amoeboid cell motility by means of regularized contour flows.

Amoeboid cell motility is essential for a wide range of biological processes including wound healing, embryonic morphogenesis, and cancer metastasis. It relies on complex dynamical patterns of cell shape changes that pose long-standing challenges to mathematical modeling and raise a need for automated and reproducible approaches to extract quantitative morphological features from image sequences. Here, we introduce a theoretical framework and a computational method for obtaining smooth representations of the spatiotemporal contour dynamics from stacks of segmented microscopy images. Based on a Gaussian process regression we propose a one-parameter family of regularized contour flows that allows us to continuously track reference points (virtual markers) between successive cell contours. We use this approach to define a coordinate system on the moving cell boundary and to represent different local geometric quantities in this frame of reference. In particular, we introduce the local marker dispersion as a measure to identify localized membrane expansions and provide a fully automated way to extract the properties of such expansions, including their area and growth time. The methods are available as an open-source software package called AmoePy, a Python-based toolbox for analyzing amoeboid cell motility (based on time-lapse microscopy data), including a graphical user interface and detailed documentation. Due to the mathematical rigor of our framework, we envision it to be of use for the development of novel cell motility models. We mainly use experimental data of the social amoeba Dictyostelium discoideum to illustrate and validate our approach.

Evaluating prediction methods for glomerular filtration to optimise drug doses in obese and nonobese patients.

AIMS: The most suitable method for predicting the glomerular filtration rate (GFR) in obesity is currently debated. Therefore, multiple GFR/creatinine clearance prediction methods were applied to (morbidly) obese and nonobese patients ranging from moderate renal impairment to glomerular hyperfiltration and their predictions were rated based on observed fosfomycin pharmacokinetics, as this model drug is exclusively eliminated via glomerular filtration. METHODS: The GFR/creatinine clearance predictions via the Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI), Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD; indexed and de-indexed by body surface area) and creatinine clearance via the Cockcroft-Gault formula (CLCRCG ) using different body size descriptors were compared to the fosfomycin clearance (CLFOF ) from 30 surgical patients (body mass index = 20.1-52.0 kg m-2 ), receiving 8000 mg as intravenous infusion. RESULTS: The concordance between CLFOF and creatinine clearance predictions was highest for CLCRCG employing either ideal body weight or adjusted body weight (if body mass >1.3 ideal body weight; CLCRCG_ABW-Schwartz , concordance-correlation coefficient [95% confidence interval] = 0.474 [0.156; 0.703], CCC) and GFR predictions via the de-indexed MDRD equation (concordance-correlation coefficient = 0.452 [0.137; 0.685]). The proportion of predicted GFR values within ±30% of the observed CLFOF (P30 = 72.3-76.7%) was only marginally lower than the reported P30 in the original CKD-EPI and MDRD publications (P30 = 84.1-90.0%). CONCLUSION: This analysis represents a successful proof-of-concept for evaluating GFR/creatinine clearance prediction methods: Across all body mass index classes CLCRCG_ABW-Schwartz or the de-indexed MDRD were most suitable for predicting creatinine clearance/GFR also in (morbidly) obese, CKD stage <3B individuals in therapeutic use. Their application is proposed in optimising doses for vital therapies in obese patients requiring monitoring of renal function (e.g. methotrexate dosing).

Quantitative relationship between infliximab exposure and inhibition of C-reactive protein synthesis to support inflammatory bowel disease management.

AIM: Quantitative and kinetic insights into the drug exposure-disease response relationship might enhance our knowledge on loss of response and support more effective monitoring of inflammatory activity by biomarkers in patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) treated with infliximab (IFX). This study aimed to derive recommendations for dose adjustment and treatment optimisation based on mechanistic characterisation of the relationship between IFX serum concentration and C-reactive protein (CRP) concentration. METHODS: Data from an investigator-initiated trial included 121 patients with IBD during IFX maintenance treatment. Serum concentrations of IFX, antidrug antibodies (ADA), CRP, and disease-related covariates were determined at the mid-term and end of a dosing interval. Data were analysed using a pharmacometric nonlinear mixed-effects modelling approach. An IFX exposure-CRP model was generated and applied to evaluate dosing regimens to achieve CRP remission. RESULTS: The generated quantitative model showed that IFX has the potential to inhibit up to 72% (9% relative standard error [RSE]) of CRP synthesis in a patient. IFX concentration leading to 90% of the maximum CRP synthesis inhibition was 18.4 µg/mL (43% RSE). Presence of ADA was the most influential factor on IFX exposure. With standard dosing strategy, ≥55% of ADA+ patients experienced CRP nonremission. Shortening the dosing interval and co-therapy with immunomodulators were found to be the most beneficial strategies to maintain CRP remission. CONCLUSIONS: With the generated model we could for the first time establish a robust relationship between IFX exposure and CRP synthesis inhibition, which could be utilised for treatment optimisation in IBD patients.

Which Analysis Approach Is Adequate to Leverage Clinical Microdialysis Data? A Quantitative Comparison to Investigate Exposure and Reponse Exemplified by Levofloxacin.

PURPOSE: Systematic comparison of analysis methods of clinical microdialysis data for impact on target-site drug exposure and response. METHODS: 39 individuals received a 500 mg levofloxacin short-term infusion followed by 24-h dense sampling in plasma and microdialysate collection in interstitial space fluid (ISF). ISF concentrations were leveraged using non-compartmental (NCA) and compartmental analysis (CA) via (ii) relative recovery correction at midpoint of the collection interval (midpoint-NCA, midpoint-CA) and (ii) dialysate-based integrals of time (integral-CA). Exposure and adequacy of community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) therapy via pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic target-attainment (PTA) analysis were compared between approaches. RESULTS: Individual AUCISF estimates strongly varied for midpoint-NCA and midpoint-CA (≥52.3%CV) versus integral-CA (≤32.9%CV) owing to separation of variability in PK parameters (midpoint-CA = 46.5%-143%CVPK, integral-CA = 26.4%-72.6%CVPK) from recovery-related variability only in integral-CA (41.0%-50.3%CVrecovery). This also led to increased variability of AUCplasma for midpoint-CA (56.0%CV) versus midpoint-NCA and integral-CA (≤33.0%CV), and inaccuracy of predictive model performance of midpoint-CA in plasma (visual predictive check). PTA analysis translated into 33% of evaluated patient cases being at risk of incorrectly rejecting recommended dosing regimens at CAP-related epidemiological cut-off values. CONCLUSIONS: Integral-CA proved most appropriate to characterise clinical pharmacokinetics- and microdialysis-related variability. Employing this knowledge will improve the understanding of drug target-site PK for therapeutic decision-making.

Therapeutic drug monitoring of oral targeted antineoplastic drugs.

PURPOSE: This review provides an overview of the current challenges in oral targeted antineoplastic drug (OAD) dosing and outlines the unexploited value of therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM). Factors influencing the pharmacokinetic exposure in OAD therapy are depicted together with an overview of different TDM approaches. Finally, current evidence for TDM for all approved OADs is reviewed. METHODS: A comprehensive literature search (covering literature published until April 2020), including primary and secondary scientific literature on pharmacokinetics and dose individualisation strategies for OADs, together with US FDA Clinical Pharmacology and Biopharmaceutics Reviews and the Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use European Public Assessment Reports was conducted. RESULTS: OADs are highly potent drugs, which have substantially changed treatment options for cancer patients. Nevertheless, high pharmacokinetic variability and low treatment adherence are risk factors for treatment failure. TDM is a powerful tool to individualise drug dosing, ensure drug concentrations within the therapeutic window and increase treatment success rates. After reviewing the literature for 71 approved OADs, we show that exposure-response and/or exposure-toxicity relationships have been established for the majority. Moreover, TDM has been proven to be feasible for individualised dosing of abiraterone, everolimus, imatinib, pazopanib, sunitinib and tamoxifen in prospective studies. There is a lack of experience in how to best implement TDM as part of clinical routine in OAD cancer therapy. CONCLUSION: Sub-therapeutic concentrations and severe adverse events are current challenges in OAD treatment, which can both be addressed by the application of TDM-guided dosing, ensuring concentrations within the therapeutic window.

Physiology-based toxicokinetic modelling of aluminium in rat and man.

A sufficient quantitative understanding of aluminium (Al) toxicokinetics (TK) in man is still lacking, although highly desirable for risk assessment of Al exposure. Baseline exposure and the risk of contamination severely limit the feasibility of TK studies administering the naturally occurring isotope 27Al, both in animals and man. These limitations are absent in studies with 26Al as a tracer, but tissue data are limited to animal studies. A TK model capable of inter-species translation to make valid predictions of Al levels in humans-especially in toxicological relevant tissues like bone and brain-is urgently needed. Here, we present: (i) a curated dataset which comprises all eligible studies with single doses of 26Al tracer administered as citrate or chloride salts orally and/or intravenously to rats and humans, including ultra-long-term kinetic profiles for plasma, blood, liver, spleen, muscle, bone, brain, kidney, and urine up to 150 weeks; and (ii) the development of a physiology-based (PB) model for Al TK after intravenous and oral administration of aqueous Al citrate and Al chloride solutions in rats and humans. Based on the comprehensive curated 26Al dataset, we estimated substance-dependent parameters within a non-linear mixed-effect modelling context. The model fitted the heterogeneous 26Al data very well and was successfully validated against datasets in rats and humans. The presented PBTK model for Al, based on the most extensive and diverse dataset of Al exposure to date, constitutes a major advancement in the field, thereby paving the way towards a more quantitative risk assessment in humans.

Time-to-Event Analysis of Paclitaxel-Associated Peripheral Neuropathy in Advanced Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer Highlighting Key Influential Treatment/Patient Factors.

Paclitaxel-associated peripheral neuropathy (PN), a major dose-limiting toxicity, significantly impacts patients' quality of life/treatment outcome. Evaluation of risk factors often ignores time of PN onset, precluding the impact of time-dependent factors, e.g., drug exposure, needed to comprehensively characterize PN. We employed parametric time-to-event (TTE) analysis to describe the time course of risk of first occurrence of clinically relevant PN grades ≥2 (PN2+, n = 105, common terminology criteria v4.0) and associated patient/treatment characteristics, leveraging data from 365 patients (1454 cycles) receiving paclitaxel every 3 weeks (plus carboplatin AUC = 6 or cisplatin 80 mg/m2) for ≤6 cycles. Paclitaxel was intravenously administered (3 hours) as standard 200-mg/m2 doses (n = 182) or as pharmacokinetic-guided dosing (n = 183). A cycle-varying hazard TTE model linking surge in hazard of PN2+ to paclitaxel administration [PN2+ proportions (i.e., cases per 1000 patients), 1st day, cycle 1: 4.87 of 1000; cycle 6: 7.36 of 1000] and linear decline across cycle (last day, cycle 1: 1.64 of 1000; cycle 6: 2.48 of 1000) adequately characterized the time-varying hazard of PN2+. From joint covariate evaluation, PN2+ proportions (1st day, cycle 1) increased by 1.00 per 1000 with 5-µmol·h/l higher paclitaxel exposure per cycle (AUC between the start and end of a cycle, most relevant covariate), 0.429 per 1000 with 5-year higher age, 1.31 per 1000 (smokers vs. nonsmokers), and decreased by 0.670 per 1000 (females vs. males). Compared to 200 mg/m2 dosing every 3 weeks, model-predicted cumulative risk of PN2+ was significantly higher (42%) with 80 mg/m2 weekly dosing but reduced by 11% with 175 mg/m2 dosing every 3 weeks. The established TTE modeling framework enables quantification and comparison of patient's cumulative risks of PN2+ for different clinically relevant paclitaxel dosing schedules, sparing patients PN2+ to improve paclitaxel therapy. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT: Characterization of risk factors of paclitaxel-associated peripheral neuropathy (PN) typically involves time-independent comparison of PN odds in patient subpopulations, concealing the impact of time-dependent factors, e.g., changing paclitaxel exposure, required to comprehensively characterize PN. We developed a parametric time-to-event model describing the time course in risk of clinically relevant paclitaxel-associated PN, identifying the highest risk in older male smokers with higher paclitaxel area under the plasma concentration-time curve between the start and end of a cycle. The developed framework enabled quantification of patient's risk of PN for clinically relevant paclitaxel dosing schedules, facilitating future dosing decisions.

Absence of Relationship Between Crohn's Disease Activity Index or C-Reactive Protein and Infliximab Exposure Calls for Objective Crohn's Disease Activity Measures for the Evaluation of Treatment Effects at Treatment Failure.

BACKGROUND: Circulating infliximab (IFX) concentrations correlate with clinical outcomes, forming the basis of the IFX concentration monitoring in patients with Crohn's disease. This study aims to investigate and refine the exposure-response relationship by linking the disease activity markers "Crohn's disease activity index" (CDAI) and C-reactive protein (CRP) to IFX exposure. In addition, we aim to explore the correlations between different disease markers and exposure metrics. METHODS: Data from 47 Crohn's disease patients of a randomized controlled trial were analyzed post hoc. All patients had secondary treatment failure at inclusion and had received intensified IFX of 5 mg/kg every 4 weeks for up to 20 weeks. Graphical analyses were performed to explore exposure-response relationships. Metrics of exposure included area under the concentration-time curve (AUC) and trough concentrations (Cmin). Disease activity was measured by CDAI and CRP values, their change from baseline/last visit, and response/remission outcomes at week 12. RESULTS: Although trends toward lower Cmin and lower AUC in nonresponders were observed, neither CDAI nor CRP showed consistent trends of lower disease activity with higher IFX exposure across the 30 evaluated relationships. As can be expected, Cmin and AUC were strongly correlated with each other. Contrarily, the disease activity markers were only weakly correlated with each other. CONCLUSIONS: No significant relationship between disease activity, as evaluated by CDAI or CRP, and IFX exposure was identified. AUC did not add benefit compared with Cmin. These findings support the continued use of Cmin and call for stringent objective disease activity (bio-)markers (eg, endoscopy) to form the basis of personalized IFX therapy for Crohn's disease patients with IFX treatment failure.

Understanding and reducing complex systems pharmacology models based on a novel input-response index.

A growing understanding of complex processes in biology has led to large-scale mechanistic models of pharmacologically relevant processes. These models are increasingly used to study the response of the system to a given input or stimulus, e.g., after drug administration. Understanding the input-response relationship, however, is often a challenging task due to the complexity of the interactions between its constituents as well as the size of the models. An approach that quantifies the importance of the different constituents for a given input-output relationship and allows to reduce the dynamics to its essential features is therefore highly desirable. In this article, we present a novel state- and time-dependent quantity called the input-response index that quantifies the importance of state variables for a given input-response relationship at a particular time. It is based on the concept of time-bounded controllability and observability, and defined with respect to a reference dynamics. In application to the brown snake venom-fibrinogen (Fg) network, the input-response indices give insight into the coordinated action of specific coagulation factors and about those factors that contribute only little to the response. We demonstrate how the indices can be used to reduce large-scale models in a two-step procedure: (i) elimination of states whose dynamics have only minor impact on the input-response relationship, and (ii) proper lumping of the remaining (lower order) model. In application to the brown snake venom-fibrinogen network, this resulted in a reduction from 62 to 8 state variables in the first step, and a further reduction to 5 state variables in the second step. We further illustrate that the sequence, in which a recursive algorithm eliminates and/or lumps state variables, has an impact on the final reduced model. The input-response indices are particularly suited to determine an informed sequence, since they are based on the dynamics of the original system. In summary, the novel measure of importance provides a powerful tool for analysing the complex dynamics of large-scale systems and a means for very efficient model order reduction of nonlinear systems.

Semimechanistic Bone Marrow Exhaustion Pharmacokinetic/Pharmacodynamic Model for Chemotherapy-Induced Cumulative Neutropenia.

Paclitaxel is a commonly used cytotoxic anticancer drug with potentially life-threatening toxicity at therapeutic doses and high interindividual pharmacokinetic variability. Thus, drug and effect monitoring is indicated to control dose-limiting neutropenia. Joerger et al. (2016) developed a dose individualization algorithm based on a pharmacokinetic (PK)/pharmacodynamic (PD) model describing paclitaxel and neutrophil concentrations. Furthermore, the algorithm was prospectively compared in a clinical trial against standard dosing (Central European Society for Anticancer Drug Research Study of Paclitaxel Therapeutic Drug Monitoring; 365 patients, 720 cycles) but did not substantially improve neutropenia. This might be caused by misspecifications in the PK/PD model underlying the algorithm, especially without consideration of the observed cumulative pattern of neutropenia or the platinum-based combination therapy, both impacting neutropenia. This work aimed to externally evaluate the original PK/PD model for potential misspecifications and to refine the PK/PD model while considering the cumulative neutropenia pattern and the combination therapy. An underprediction was observed for the PK (658 samples), the PK parameters, and these parameters were re-estimated using the original estimates as prior information. Neutrophil concentrations (3274 samples) were overpredicted by the PK/PD model, especially for later treatment cycles when the cumulative pattern aggravated neutropenia. Three different modeling approaches (two from the literature and one newly developed) were investigated. The newly developed model, which implemented the bone marrow hypothesis semiphysiologically, was superior. This model further included an additive effect for toxicity of carboplatin combination therapy. Overall, a physiologically plausible PK/PD model was developed that can be used for dose adaptation simulations and prospective studies to further improve paclitaxel/carboplatin combination therapy.

Role of renal function in risk assessment of target non-attainment after standard dosing of meropenem in critically ill patients: a prospective observational study.

BACKGROUND: Severe bacterial infections remain a major challenge in intensive care units because of their high prevalence and mortality. Adequate antibiotic exposure has been associated with clinical success in critically ill patients. The objective of this study was to investigate the target attainment of standard meropenem dosing in a heterogeneous critically ill population, to quantify the impact of the full renal function spectrum on meropenem exposure and target attainment, and ultimately to translate the findings into a tool for practical application. METHODS: A prospective observational single-centre study was performed with critically ill patients with severe infections receiving standard dosing of meropenem. Serial blood samples were drawn over 4 study days to determine meropenem serum concentrations. Renal function was assessed by creatinine clearance according to the Cockcroft and Gault equation (CLCRCG). Variability in meropenem serum concentrations was quantified at the middle and end of each monitored dosing interval. The attainment of two pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic targets (100%T>MIC, 50%T>4×MIC) was evaluated for minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) values of 2 mg/L and 8 mg/L and standard meropenem dosing (1000 mg, 30-minute infusion, every 8 h). Furthermore, we assessed the impact of CLCRCG on meropenem concentrations and target attainment and developed a tool for risk assessment of target non-attainment. RESULTS: Large inter- and intra-patient variability in meropenem concentrations was observed in the critically ill population (n = 48). Attainment of the target 100%T>MIC was merely 48.4% and 20.6%, given MIC values of 2 mg/L and 8 mg/L, respectively, and similar for the target 50%T>4×MIC. A hyperbolic relationship between CLCRCG (25-255 ml/minute) and meropenem serum concentrations at the end of the dosing interval (C8h) was derived. For infections with pathogens of MIC 2 mg/L, mild renal impairment up to augmented renal function was identified as a risk factor for target non-attainment (for MIC 8 mg/L, additionally, moderate renal impairment). CONCLUSIONS: The investigated standard meropenem dosing regimen appeared to result in insufficient meropenem exposure in a considerable fraction of critically ill patients. An easy- and free-to-use tool (the MeroRisk Calculator) for assessing the risk of target non-attainment for a given renal function and MIC value was developed. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Clinicaltrials.gov, NCT01793012 . Registered on 24 January 2013.

Towards toxicokinetic modelling of aluminium exposure from adjuvants in medicinal products.

As a potentially toxic agent on nervous system and bone, the safety of aluminium exposure from adjuvants in vaccines and subcutaneous immune therapy (SCIT) products has to be continuously re-evaluated, especially regarding concomitant administrations. For this purpose, knowledge on absorption and disposition of aluminium in plasma and tissues is essential. Pharmacokinetic data after vaccination in humans, however, are not available, and for methodological and ethical reasons difficult to obtain. To overcome these limitations, we discuss the possibility of an in vitro-in silico approach combining a toxicokinetic model for aluminium disposition with biorelevant kinetic absorption parameters from adjuvants. We critically review available kinetic aluminium-26 data for model building and, on the basis of a reparameterized toxicokinetic model (Nolte et al., 2001), we identify main modelling gaps. The potential of in vitro dissolution experiments for the prediction of intramuscular absorption kinetics of aluminium after vaccination is explored. It becomes apparent that there is need for detailed in vitro dissolution and in vivo absorption data to establish an in vitro-in vivo correlation (IVIVC) for aluminium adjuvants. We conclude that a combination of new experimental data and further refinement of the Nolte model has the potential to fill a gap in aluminium risk assessment.

Impact of altered endogenous IgG on unspecific mAb clearance.

Immunodeficient mice are crucial models to evaluate the efficacy of monoclonal antibodies (mAbs). When studying mAb pharmacokinetics (PK), protection from elimination by binding to the neonatal Fc receptor (FcRn) is known to be a major process influencing the unspecific clearance of endogenous and therapeutic IgG. The concentration of endogenous IgG in immunodeficient mice, however is reduced, and this effect on the FcRn protection mechanism and subsequently on unspecific mAb clearance is unknown, yet of great importance for the interpretation of mAb PK data. We used a PBPK modelling approach to elucidate the influence of altered endogenous IgG concentrations on unspecific mAb clearance. To this end, we used PK data in immunodeficient mice, i.e. nude and severe combined immunodeficiency mice. To avoid impact of target-mediated clearance processes, we focussed on mAbs without affinity to a target antigen in these mice. In addition, intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) data of immunocompetent mice was used to study the impact of increased total IgG concentrations on unspecific therapeutic antibody clearance. The unspecific clearance is linear, whenever therapeutic IgG concentrations, i.e. mAb and IVIG concentrations are lower than FcRn; it can be non-linear if therapeutic IgG concentrations are larger than FcRn and endogenous IgG concentrations (e.g., under IVIG therapy). Unspecific mAb clearance of immunodeficient mice is effectively linear (under mAb doses as typically used in human). Studying the impact of reduced endogenous IgG concentrations on unspecific mAb clearance is of great relevance for the extrapolation to clinical species, e.g., when predicting mAb PK in immunosuppressed cancer patients.

Estimating HIV-1 fitness characteristics from cross-sectional genotype data.

Despite the success of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) in the management of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-1 infection, virological failure due to drug resistance development remains a major challenge. Resistant mutants display reduced drug susceptibilities, but in the absence of drug, they generally have a lower fitness than the wild type, owing to a mutation-incurred cost. The interaction between these fitness costs and drug resistance dictates the appearance of mutants and influences viral suppression and therapeutic success. Assessing in vivo viral fitness is a challenging task and yet one that has significant clinical relevance. Here, we present a new computational modelling approach for estimating viral fitness that relies on common sparse cross-sectional clinical data by combining statistical approaches to learn drug-specific mutational pathways and resistance factors with viral dynamics models to represent the host-virus interaction and actions of drug mechanistically. We estimate in vivo fitness characteristics of mutant genotypes for two antiretroviral drugs, the reverse transcriptase inhibitor zidovudine (ZDV) and the protease inhibitor indinavir (IDV). Well-known features of HIV-1 fitness landscapes are recovered, both in the absence and presence of drugs. We quantify the complex interplay between fitness costs and resistance by computing selective advantages for different mutants. Our approach extends naturally to multiple drugs and we illustrate this by simulating a dual therapy with ZDV and IDV to assess therapy failure. The combined statistical and dynamical modelling approach may help in dissecting the effects of fitness costs and resistance with the ultimate aim of assisting the choice of salvage therapies after treatment failure.

Monoclonal antibody disposition: a simplified PBPK model and its implications for the derivation and interpretation of classical compartment models.

The structure, interpretation and parameterization of classical compartment models as well as physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models for monoclonal antibody (mAb) disposition are very diverse, with no apparent consensus. In addition, there is a remarkable discrepancy between the simplicity of experimental plasma and tissue profiles and the complexity of published PBPK models. We present a simplified PBPK model based on an extravasation rate-limited tissue model with elimination potentially occurring from various tissues and plasma. Based on model reduction (lumping), we derive several classical compartment model structures that are consistent with the simplified PBPK model and experimental data. We show that a common interpretation of classical two-compartment models for mAb disposition-identifying the central compartment with the total plasma volume and the peripheral compartment with the interstitial space (or part of it)-is not consistent with current knowledge. Results are illustrated for the monoclonal antibodies 7E3 and T84.66 in mice.

Three-component contour dynamics model to simulate and analyze amoeboid cell motility in two dimensions.

Amoeboid cell motility is relevant in a wide variety of biomedical processes such as wound healing, cancer metastasis, and embryonic morphogenesis. It is characterized by pronounced changes of the cell shape associated with expansions and retractions of the cell membrane, which result in a crawling kind of locomotion. Despite existing computational models of amoeboid motion, the inference of expansion and retraction components of individual cells, the corresponding classification of cells, and the a priori specification of the parameter regime to achieve a specific motility behavior remain challenging open problems. We propose a novel model of the spatio-temporal evolution of two-dimensional cell contours comprising three biophysiologically motivated components: a stochastic term accounting for membrane protrusions and two deterministic terms accounting for membrane retractions by regularizing the shape and area of the contour. Mathematically, these correspond to the intensity of a self-exciting Poisson point process, the area-preserving curve-shortening flow, and an area adjustment flow. The model is used to generate contour data for a variety of qualitatively different, e.g., polarized and non-polarized, cell tracks that visually resemble experimental data very closely. In application to experimental cell tracks, we inferred the protrusion component and examined its correlation to common biomarkers: the F-actin density close to the membrane and its local motion. Due to the low model complexity, parameter estimation is fast, straightforward, and offers a simple way to classify contour dynamics based on two locomotion types: the amoeboid and a so-called fan-shaped type. For both types, we use cell tracks segmented from fluorescence imaging data of the model organism Dictyostelium discoideum. An implementation of the model is provided within the open-source software package AmoePy, a Python-based toolbox for analyzing and simulating amoeboid cell motility.

Leveraging QSP Models for MIPD: A Case Study for Warfarin/INR.

Warfarin dosing remains challenging due to substantial inter-individual variability, which can lead to unsafe or ineffective therapy with standard dosing. Model-informed precision dosing (MIPD) can help individualize warfarin dosing, requiring the selection of a suitable model. For models developed from clinical data, the dependence on the study design and population raises questions about generalizability. Quantitative system pharmacology (QSP) models promise better extrapolation abilities; however, their complexity and lack of validation on clinical data raise questions about applicability in MIPD. We have previously derived a mechanistic warfarin/international normalized ratio (INR) model from a blood coagulation QSP model. In this article, we evaluated the predictive performance of the warfarin/INR model in the context of MIPD using an external dataset with INR data from patients starting warfarin treatment. We assessed the accuracy and precision of model predictions, benchmarked against an empirically based reference model. Additionally, we evaluated covariate contributions and assessed the predictive performance separately in the more challenging outpatient data. The warfarin/INR model performed comparably to the reference model across various measures despite not being calibrated with warfarin initiation data. Including CYP2C9 and/or VKORC1 genotypes as covariates improved the prediction quality of the warfarin/INR model, even after assimilating 4 days of INR data. The outpatient INR exhibited higher unexplained variability, and predictions slightly exceeded observed values, suggesting that model adjustments might be necessary when transitioning from an inpatient to an outpatient setting. Overall, this research underscores the potential of QSP-derived models for MIPD, offering a complementary approach to empirical model development.