Global Effect of Modifiable Risk Factors on Cardiovascular Disease and Mortality.

BACKGROUND: Five modifiable risk factors are associated with cardiovascular disease and death from any cause. Studies using individual-level data to evaluate the regional and sex-specific prevalence of the risk factors and their effect on these outcomes are lacking. METHODS: We pooled and harmonized individual-level data from 112 cohort studies conducted in 34 countries and 8 geographic regions participating in the Global Cardiovascular Risk Consortium. We examined associations between the risk factors (body-mass index, systolic blood pressure, non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, current smoking, and diabetes) and incident cardiovascular disease and death from any cause using Cox regression analyses, stratified according to geographic region, age, and sex. Population-attributable fractions were estimated for the 10-year incidence of cardiovascular disease and 10-year all-cause mortality. RESULTS: Among 1,518,028 participants (54.1% of whom were women) with a median age of 54.4 years, regional variations in the prevalence of the five modifiable risk factors were noted. Incident cardiovascular disease occurred in 80,596 participants during a median follow-up of 7.3 years (maximum, 47.3), and 177,369 participants died during a median follow-up of 8.7 years (maximum, 47.6). For all five risk factors combined, the aggregate global population-attributable fraction of the 10-year incidence of cardiovascular disease was 57.2% (95% confidence interval [CI], 52.4 to 62.1) among women and 52.6% (95% CI, 49.0 to 56.1) among men, and the corresponding values for 10-year all-cause mortality were 22.2% (95% CI, 16.8 to 27.5) and 19.1% (95% CI, 14.6 to 23.6). CONCLUSIONS: Harmonized individual-level data from a global cohort showed that 57.2% and 52.6% of cases of incident cardiovascular disease among women and men, respectively, and 22.2% and 19.1% of deaths from any cause among women and men, respectively, may be attributable to five modifiable risk factors. (Funded by the German Center for Cardiovascular Research (DZHK); ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT05466825.).

Sleep and 24-hour activity rhythms and the risk of stroke: a prospective cohort study.

Introduction Short and long self-reported sleep durations are associated with a higher risk of stroke, but the association of objective estimates of sleep and 24-hour activity rhythms is less clear. We studied the association of actigraphy-estimated sleep and 24-hour activity rhythms with the risk of stroke in a population-based cohort of middle-aged and elderly. Methods We included 1718 stroke-free participants (mean age 62.2 ± 9.3 years, 55.1% women) from the prospective, population-based Rotterdam Study. Actigraphy-estimated sleep (total sleep time, sleep efficiency, sleep onset latency and wake after sleep onset) and 24-hour activity rhythms (interdaily stability, intradaily variability and onset of the least active 5 hours) were measured during a median of 7 days (Q1-Q3: 6-7 days). The association of sleep and 24-hour activity rhythms with risk of stroke was analyzed using Cox proportional hazards models. Results During a mean follow-up of 12.2 years (SD: 3.2), 105 participants developed a stroke, of whom 81 had an ischemic event. Although there was no clear association between actigraphy-estimated sleep and the risk of stroke, a more fragmented 24-hour activity rhythm was associated with a higher risk of stroke (hazard ratio [HR] per SD increase 1.28, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.07-1.53). A less stable (HR per SD increase in stability 0.78, 95%CI 0.63-0.97) and more fragmented (HR 1.28, 95%CI 1.04 - 1.58) 24-hour activity rhythm were also associated with a higher risk of ischemic stroke. Conclusions Disturbed 24-hour activity rhythms, but not sleep, are associated with a higher risk of stroke in middle-aged and elderly persons. This suggests that unstable and fragmented activity rhythms may play a more prominent role in the risk of stroke than sleep per se.

The Rotterdam Study. Design update and major findings between 2020 and 2024.

The Rotterdam Study is a population-based cohort study, started in 1990 in the district of Ommoord in the city of Rotterdam, the Netherlands, with the aim to describe the prevalence and incidence, unravel the etiology, and identify targets for prediction, prevention or intervention of multifactorial diseases in mid-life and elderly. The study currently includes 17,931 participants (overall response rate 65%), aged 40 years and over, who are examined in-person every 3 to 5 years in a dedicated research facility, and who are followed-up continuously through automated linkage with health care providers, both regionally and nationally. Research within the Rotterdam Study is carried out along two axes. First, research lines are oriented around diseases and clinical conditions, which are reflective of medical specializations. Second, cross-cutting research lines transverse these clinical demarcations allowing for inter- and multidisciplinary research. These research lines generally reflect subdomains within epidemiology. This paper describes recent methodological updates and main findings from each of these research lines. Also, future perspective for coming years highlighted.

Lifetime prevalence and associated factors of itch with skin conditions: Atopic dermatitis, psoriasis and dry skin in individuals aged over 50.

BACKGROUND: Itch, common in dermatological conditions, is often accompanied by psychological distress and reduced quality of life. However, research on the prevalence and associated factors of itch with skin conditions in general populations is limited. OBJECTIVES: This cross-sectional study aimed to determine the lifetime prevalence of itch with skin conditions and identify its associated factors in middle-aged and elderly individuals. METHODS: Participants from the Rotterdam Study, a population-based cohort, were interviewed to assess whether they had ever had an itchy skin condition, defining lifetime itch with skin conditions. Over 20 demographic, lifestyle, dermatological, and non-dermatological factors were collected. Multivariable logistic regression analysis explored associations between these factors and itch with skin conditions, reported as odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). RESULTS: 5,246 eligible participants (age range: 51-100, median age: 67, female: 56.0%) revealed a lifetime prevalence of 33.7% for itch with skin conditions. Female sex (OR (95% CI): 1.26 (1.11-1.43)), body mass index (1.02 (1.01-1.03)), self-reported and presence of atopic dermatitis (4.29 (3.74-4.92), and 1.97 (1.60-2.43)), self-reported and presence of psoriasis (2.31 (1.77-3.01), and 2.11 (1.55-2.87)), self-reported dry skin (1.95 (1.73-2.29)), self-reported asthma (1.40 (1.08-1.83)), renal impairment (1.45 (1.17-1.79)), and clinically relevant depressive and anxiety symptoms (1.85 (1.52-2.25), and 1.36 (1.11-1.66)) were significantly associated with it. CONCLUSIONS: This study reveals a substantial one-third lifetime prevalence of itch with skin conditions in individuals aged over 50. Significant associations with diverse lifestyle, demographic, dermatological and, intriguingly, non-dermatological factors including renal impairment, imply additional contributors to itch induction or persistence in individuals with skin conditions.

Antidepressant use in relation to dementia risk, cognitive decline, and brain atrophy.

INTRODUCTION: We aimed to assess the effect of antidepressant use on dementia risk, cognitive decline, and brain atrophy. METHODS: In this prospective cohort study, we included 5511 dementia-free participants (Mini-Mental State Examination [MMSE] > 25) of the Rotterdam study (57.5% women, mean age 70.6 years). Antidepressant use was extracted from pharmacy records from 1991 until baseline (2002-2008). Incident dementia was monitored from baseline until 2018, with repeated cognitive assessment and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) every 4 years. RESULTS: Compared to never use, any antidepressant use was not associated with dementia risk (hazard ratio [HR] 1.14, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.92-1.41), or with accelerated cognitive decline or atrophy of white and gray matter. Compared to never use, dementia risk was somewhat higher with tricyclic antidepressants (HR 1.36, 95% CI 1.01-1.83) than with selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (HR 1.12, 95% CI 0.81-1.54), but without dose-response relationships, accelerated cognitive decline, or atrophy in either group. DISCUSSION: Antidepressant medication in adults without indication of cognitive impairment was not consistently associated with long-term adverse cognitive effects. HIGHLIGHTS: Antidepressant medications are frequently prescribed, especially among older adults. In this study, antidepressant use was not associated with long-term dementia risk. Antidepressant use was not associated with cognitive decline or brain atrophy. Our results support safe prescription in an older, cognitively healthy population.

Brain artery diameters and risk of dementia and stroke.

INTRODUCTION: We tested the association of brain artery diameters with dementia and stroke risk in three distinct population-based studies using conventional T2-weighted brain magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) images. METHODS: We included 8420 adults > 40 years old from three longitudinal population-based studies with brain MRI scans. We estimated and meta-analyzed the hazard ratios (HRs) of the brain and carotids and basilar diameters associated with dementia and stroke. RESULT: Overall and carotid artery diameters > 95th percentile increased the risk for dementia by 1.74 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.13-2.68) and 1.48 (95% CI, 1.12-1.96) fold, respectively. For stroke, meta-analyses yielded HRs of 1.59 (95% CI, 1.04-2.42) for overall arteries and 2.11 (95% CI, 1.45-3.08) for basilar artery diameters > 95th percentile. DISCUSSION: Individuals with dilated brain arteries are at higher risk for dementia and stroke, across distinct populations. Our findings underline the potential value of T2-weighted brain MRI-based brain diameter assessment in estimating the risk of dementia and stroke.

The Association of Serum Immunoglobulins with Risk of Cardiovascular Disease and Mortality: the Rotterdam Study.

PURPOSE: Inflammation is implicated in cardiovascular disease (CVD), but the association of total serum immunoglobulin (Ig) A, G, and M with CVD across the whole spectrum of atherosclerosis in community-dwelling elderly is unknown. METHODS: This study was embedded in the Rotterdam Study, an ongoing population-based cohort study. We performed Cox regression for the associations of Igs with incident atherosclerotic CVD (ACVD; composite of myocardial infarction, revascularization, and stroke), cardiovascular mortality, and all-cause mortality, and multinomial logistic regression for the association between Igs and coronary artery calcification (CAC) scores. We adjusted for age, sex, lifestyle, and cardiovascular risk factors and presented results per standard deviation increase. RESULTS: We included 8767 participants (median age 62.2 years, 57% women). Higher IgG was associated with an increased ACVD risk (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.08; 95% confidence interval [95% CI]: 1.01-1.15). Higher IgA and IgG were associated with an increased cardiovascular mortality risk, mainly within Ig reference ranges, and with an increased all-cause mortality risk, although less marked. Higher IgA was associated with severe atherosclerosis, i.e., CAC score > 400 (odds ratio: 1.29; 95% CI: 1.03-1.62), while for higher IgG a trend was seen with severe atherosclerosis. CONCLUSION: In middle-aged and older individuals from the general population, higher serum IgA and IgG, but not IgM, are associated with CVD, cardiovascular mortality, and severe atherosclerosis, particularly within Ig reference ranges and independent of serum C-reactive protein. Future studies are needed to elucidate potential causality of the reported associations.

Effects of Eligibility Criteria on Patient Selection and Treatment Implications from 10 Multidomain Dementia Prevention Trials: A Population-Based Study.

INTRODUCTION: Dementia prevention trials have so far shown little benefit of multidomain interventions against cognitive decline. Recruitment strategies in these trials often centre around dementia risk or cardiovascular risk profile, but it is uncertain whether this leads to inclusion of individuals who may benefit most from the intervention. We determined the effects of eligibility criteria on the recruitment of potential trial participants in the general population. METHODS: In a systematic search until January 1, 2022, we identified all published and ongoing large (≥500 participants), phase-3 multidomain trials for the prevention of cognitive decline or dementia. We applied trial eligibility criteria to 5,381 participants of the population-based Rotterdam Study (mean age: 72 years, 58% women), to compare participant characteristics, predicted risk of cardiovascular disease, and dementia risk, between trial eligible and ineligible persons. RESULTS: We identified 10 trials, of which 5 had been published (DR's EXTRA, FINGER, preDIVA, MAPT, and HATICE) and 5 are ongoing (US-POINTER, MIND-CHINA, MYB, AgeWell.de, and J-Mint). Among all Rotterdam Study participants, eligibility across published trials ranged from 48% for MAPT to 87% for preDIVA, in line with original trial reports. Variability in eligibility was wider for ongoing trials, from 1% for US-POINTER to over 94% for MYB trial. Over 70% of trial eligible individuals are recommended preventive intervention in routine care based on their cardiovascular risk, similar for lipid-lowering (71%) and blood pressure-lowering treatment (73%). Ten-year risks of dementia were similar for eligible compared to ineligible individuals (12 vs. 11%). CONCLUSION: Multidomain dementia prevention trials fail to preferentially include those at the highest risk of dementia and mostly include individuals who qualify for interventions already on the basis of cardiovascular prevention guidelines. These findings call for better targeted enrolment of individuals for whom trial results can improve clinical decision-making.

Migraine and the risk of stroke in a middle-aged and elderly population: A prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: It has been suggested that patients with migraine have a higher risk of stroke. Despite considerable research on this topic in younger populations, a clear answer is still lacking for older individuals. We studied the association between migraine and the risk of stroke in a middle-aged and elderly population. METHODS: Within the ongoing prospective population-based Rotterdam Study, the presence of migraine was assessed using a validated questionnaire in a structured interview between 2006 and 2011, which formed the baseline. The association between migraine and the risk of stroke was analyzed using Cox proportional-hazards models with adjustments for age, sex, and cardiometabolic risk factors. RESULTS: A total of 6925 (mean age 65.7 ± 11.3 years, 57.8% females) stroke-free participants were included. At baseline, 1030 (14.9%) participants had lifetime history of migraine. During a median follow-up of 6.2 years, 195 participants developed a stroke (163 ischemic stroke). Analyzing the association between migraine and stroke, we found a hazard ratio of 1.44 with a 95% confidence interval of 0.96-2.15. The results were similar for the ischemic stroke (HR 1.50, CI: 0.97-2.32). CONCLUSION: Our data suggested an association between migraine and the risk of stroke in a middle-aged and elderly population, but this was not statistically significant.

NT-proBNP and changes in cognition and global brain structure: The Rotterdam Study.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the association between N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) and changes in cognition and global brain structure. METHODS: In the Rotterdam Study, baseline NT-proBNP was assessed at baseline from 1997 to 2008. Between 1997 and 2016, participants without dementia or stroke at baseline (n = 9566) had repeated cognitive tests (every 3-6 years) for global cognitive function, executive cognitive function, fine manual dexterity, and memory. Magnetic resonance imaging of the brain was performed repeatedly at re-examination visits between 2005 and 2015 for 2607 participants to obtain brain volumes, focal brain lesions, and white matter microstructural integrity as measures of brain structure. RESULTS: Among 9566 participants (mean age 65.1 ± 9.8 years), 5444 (56.9%) were women, and repeated measures of cognition were performed during a median follow-up time of 5.5 (range 1.1-17.9) years, of whom 2607 participants completed at least one brain imaging scan. Higher levels of NT-proBNP were associated with a faster decline of scores in the global cognitive function (p value = 0.003) and the Word-Fluency test (p value = 0.003) but were not related to a steeper deterioration in brain volumes, global fractional anisotropy, and mean diffusivity, as indicators of white matter microstructural integrity, or focal brain lesions. CONCLUSIONS: Higher baseline NT-proBNP levels were associated with a faster decline in cognition; however, no association with global brain structure was found.

No association between blood-based markers of immune system and migraine status: a population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Although some evidence implicates the immune system in migraine attacks, its role during attack-free periods remains largely unexplored. Therefore, we assessed the association between the immune system and migraine status. METHODS: From the population-based Rotterdam Study, we included 6593 participants who underwent blood sampling and migraine assessments. In the blood samples, we measured white blood-cell-based immune markers. As a marker for the innate immune system, granulocyte and platelet counts were determined, whereas lymphocyte counts were used as a marker for the adaptive immune system. Migraine was assessed using a validated questionnaire based on ICHD-2 criteria. We investigated associations between blood-cell counts and migraine using logistic regression models adjusting for age, sex and other variables. RESULTS: Mean age of participants was 65.6 ± 11.2 years and 56.7% were female. The lifetime prevalence of migraine was 15.1% (995/6593). We found no statistically significant associations between granulocyte (odds ratio [OR] per standard deviation increase 1.01 95% Confidence Interval [CI]: 0.93-1.09), platelet (OR 1.01 CI: 0.94-1.09) or lymphocyte counts (OR 1.01 CI: 0.93-1.08) and migraine status. CONCLUSIONS: Our results do not support an association between white blood-cell-based immunity markers and migraine status.

Plant-based dietary patterns and the risk of dementia: a population-based study.

BACKGROUND: Plant-based dietary patterns are increasingly popular in western countries and are supported by many governments and health organisations for their potential beneficial role in the prevention of chronic diseases. Yet, the potential role of plant-based dietary patterns in the development of dementia remains unclear. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the association between plant-based dietary patterns and the risk of dementia. METHODS: Dietary intake was measured at baseline in 9,543 dementia-free participants (mean age 64 years, birth years 1897-1960, 58% women) of the prospective population-based Rotterdam Study, using food frequency questionnaires. Based on these questionnaires, we calculated an overall plant-based dietary index (PDI), healthy PDI (hPDI) and unhealthy PDI (uPDI), with higher scores reflecting higher consumption of (any, healthy and unhealthy, respectively) plant-based foods and lower consumption of animal-based foods. We analysed the association of the PDIs with incident dementia using Cox proportional hazard models. RESULTS: During a mean follow-up of 14.5 years, 1,472 participants developed dementia. Overall, the PDIs were not associated with the risk of dementia (hazard ratio [95% confidence interval] per 10-point increase: 0.99 [0.91-1.08] for PDI, 0.93 [0.86-1.01] for hPDI, 1.02 [0.94-1.10] for uPDI). However, among men and APOE ε4 carriers, a higher hPDI was linearly associated with a lower risk of dementia (0.86 [0.75-0.99] and 0.83 [0.73-0.95], respectively), while this association was U-shaped among APOE ε4 non-carriers (P value for non-linearity = 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: We found no strong evidence for an overall association between plant-based eating and the risk of dementia. Our findings in stratified analyses warranted further investigation.

Patient perspectives on telemedicine during the COVID-19 pandemic: a mixed-methods community-based study.

BACKGROUND: Detailed community-based perspectives on patient experiences with telemedicine are currently lacking, yet essential to assess clinical applicability of telemedicine during and beyond pandemics, alike COVID-19. The aim of this study was to expose patient perspectives on virtual compared to in-person consultations, including determinants of these preferences. METHODS: We invited 5864 participants of the population-based Rotterdam Study to fill in a validated questionnaire using both close-ended and free-text questions. The questionnaire was sent on 30 July 2020, following a period of lockdowns and closures of non-essential workplaces. It assessed preferences for physician contact, healthcare utilisation, socioeconomic factors, and overall health. Those who experienced at least one virtual consultation (telephone or video call) between March 2020 and the beginning of July 2020 were asked whether those consultations were more, equally or less pleasant than in-person consultations, and to detail their experiences through free-text comments. These narrative data were examined using thematic analysis. RESULTS: 4514 participants completed the questionnaire (response rate 77.0%, 58.7% women, mean age 70.8 ± 10.5 years). 1103 participants (24.4%) reported having had experience with virtual consultations. Half of these participants considered virtual consultations less pleasant than in-person consultations (N = 556; 50.4%), while 11.5% found it more pleasant. In total, we coded free-text comments of 752 participants. Prominent themes behind patient preferences for virtual or in-person consultations were lack of nonverbal communication, lack of physical examination, consultation scheduling, personal circumstances, and the presence of somatic and/or language barriers. CONCLUSIONS: Based on the experiences of a large elderly patient population, we showed that preference for virtual or in-person consultations is dependent on personal and situational variety, and their interplay. Healthcare providers should consider patients' complex care needs and evaluate the potential added value of nonverbal communication and physical examination before scheduling a virtual consultation.

Adiposity in the older population and the risk of dementia: The Rotterdam Study.

INTRODUCTION: We determined associations of total and regional adiposity with incident dementia among older adults. METHODS: Within the population-based Rotterdam Study, adiposity was measured as total, android, and gynoid fat mass using dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry in 3408 men and 4563 women, every 3 to 6 years between 2002 and 2016. Incident dementia was recorded until 2020. RESULTS: Higher adiposity measures were associated with a decreased risk of dementia in both sexes. After excluding the first 5 years of follow-up, only the association of gynoid fat among women remained significant (hazard ratio 0.85 [95% confidence interval 0.75-0.97] per standard deviation increase). No major differences in trajectories of adiposity measures were observed between dementia cases and dementia-free controls. DISCUSSION: Higher total and regional fat mass related to a decreased risk of dementia. These results may be explained by reverse causality, although a protective effect of adiposity cannot be excluded. HIGHLIGHTS: Total and regional adiposity were assessed using dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry scans in 7971 older adults. All adiposity measures were associated with a decreased risk of dementia. The results suggest a beneficial effect of gynoid fat on the risk of dementia in women. Reverse causation and competing risk may explain these inverse associations.

Validity of stroke severity assessment using medical records in a population-based cohort.

OBJECTIVES: Stroke severity is an important prognostic indicator of morbidity and mortality, but often not recorded outside of specialised stroke centres. We aimed to develop a scoring rule and validate standardised assessment of the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) from medical records. METHODS: We developed a standardised assessment of the NIHSS from medical records. Four trained raters independently assessed the charts of 100 patients with first-ever stroke, randomly selected from the population-based Rotterdam Study cohort. Interrater agreement was determined using the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC), and Fleiss' kappa for major versus minor stroke. We validated the scoring method against 29 prospective, clinical NIHSS ratings, using Kendall's tau and Cohen's kappa. RESULTS: Of 100 included patients with stroke (mean age 80 years, 62% women), 71 (71%) were admitted to hospital and 9 (9%) were seen in outpatient clinic, whereas 20 (20%) were treated exclusively by their general practitioner or nursing home physician. Interrater agreement for retrospective, chart-based NIHSS ratings was excellent when assessed continuously (ICC: 0.90), and for minor versus major stroke (for NIHSS>3: κ=0.79, NIHSS>5: κ=0.78). Interrater agreement was good both for hospital-based and out-of-hospital settings (ICC: 0.97 and 0.75 respectively). Overall, assessment from medical records was in excellent agreement with prospective NIHSS ratings (τ=0.83; NIHSS>3: κ=0.93, and NIHSS>5: κ=0.93). However, for severe stroke (NIHSS>10) retrospective assessment tended to underestimate severity by 1-3 points on the NIHSS, which was accompanied by a somewhat lower interrater agreement for those more severe cases (NIHSS>10: κ=0.62). CONCLUSIONS: Assessment of stroke severity according to the NIHSS on the basis of medical records is feasible and reliable in population-based cohorts of patients with stroke. These findings facilitate more individualised risk estimates in observational studies that lack prospective ascertainment of stroke severity.

Morphological Subtypes of Intracranial Internal Carotid Artery Arteriosclerosis and the Risk of Stroke.

BACKGROUND: Accumulating evidence highlights the existence of distinct morphological subtypes of intracranial carotid arteriosclerosis. So far, little is known on the prevalence of these subtypes and subsequent stroke risk in the general population. We determined the prevalence of morphological subtypes of intracranial arteriosclerosis and assessed the risk of stroke associated with these subtypes. METHODS: Between 2003 and 2006, 2391 stroke-free participants (mean age 69.6, 51.7% women) from the population-based Rotterdam Study underwent noncontrast computed tomography to visualize calcification in the intracranial carotid arteries as a proxy for intracranial arteriosclerosis. Calcification morphology was evaluated according to a validated grading scale and categorized into intimal, internal elastic lamina (IEL), or mixed subtype. Follow-up for stroke was complete until January 1, 2016. We used multivariable Cox regression to assess associations of each subtype with incident stroke. RESULTS: The prevalence of calcification was 82% of which 39% had the intimal subtype, 48% IEL subtype, and 13% a mixed subtype. During a median follow-up of 10.4 years, 155 participants had a stroke. All 3 subtypes were associated with a higher risk of stroke (adjusted hazard ratio [95% CI] for intimal: 2.11 [1.07-4.13], IEL: 2.66 [1.39-5.11], and mixed subtype 2.57 [1.18-5.61]). The association of the IEL subtype with stroke was strongest among older participants. The association of the intimal subtype with stroke was noticeably stronger in women than in men. CONCLUSIONS: Calcification of the IEL was the most prevalent subtype of intracranial arteriosclerosis. All 3 subtypes were associated with an increased risk of stroke, with noticeable age and sex-specific differences.

Visit-to-visit blood pressure variability and the risk of stroke in the Netherlands: A population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Apart from blood pressure level itself, variation in blood pressure has been implicated in the development of stroke in subgroups at high cardiovascular risk. We determined the association between visit-to-visit blood pressure variability and stroke risk in the general population, taking into account the size and direction of variation and several time intervals prior to stroke diagnosis. METHODS AND FINDINGS: From 1990 to 2016, we included 9,958 stroke-free participants of the population-based Rotterdam Study in the Netherlands. This is a prospective cohort study including participants aged 45 years and older. Systolic blood pressure (SBP) variability was calculated as absolute SBP difference divided by mean SBP over 2 sequential visits (median 4.6 years apart). Directional SBP variability was defined as SBP difference over 2 visits divided by mean SBP. Using time-varying Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for age, sex, mean SBP, and cardiovascular risk factors, hazard ratios (HRs) for stroke up to January 2016 were estimated per SD increase and in tertiles of variability. We also conducted analyses with 3-, 6-, and 9-year intervals between variability measurement and stroke assessment. These analyses were repeated for diastolic blood pressure (DBP). The mean age of the study population was 67.4 ± 8.2 years and 5,776 (58.0%) were women. During a median follow-up of 10.1 years, 971 (9.8%) participants had a stroke, including 641 ischemic, 89 hemorrhagic, and 241 unspecified strokes. SBP variability was associated with an increased risk of hemorrhagic stroke (HR per SD 1.27, 95% CI 1.05-1.54, p = 0.02) and unspecified stroke (HR per SD 1.21, 95% CI 1.09-1.34, p < 0.001). The associations were stronger for all stroke subtypes with longer time intervals; the HR for any stroke was 1.29 (95% CI 1.21-1.36, p < 0.001) at 3 years, 1.47 (95% CI 1.35-1.59, p < 0.001) at 6 years, and 1.38 (95%CI 1.24-1.51, p < 0.001) at 9 years. For DBP variability, we found an association with unspecified stroke risk. Both the rise and fall of SBP and the fall of DBP were associated with an increased risk for unspecified stroke. Limitations of the study include that, due to an average interval of 4 years between visits, our findings may not be generalizable to blood pressure variability over shorter periods. CONCLUSIONS: In this population-based study, we found that visit-to-visit blood pressure variation was associated with an increased risk of unspecified and hemorrhagic stroke, independent of direction of variation or mean blood pressure.

Thoracic Aortic Diameter and Cardiovascular Events and Mortality among Women and Men.

Background Thoracic aortic diameter may have a role as a biomarker for major adverse cardiovascular events. Purpose To evaluate the sex-specific association of the diameters of the ascending (AA) and descending (DA) thoracic aorta with risk of stroke, coronary heart disease, heart failure, cardiovascular mortality, and all-cause mortality. Materials and Methods Study participants from the population-based Rotterdam Study who underwent multidetector-row CT between 2003 and 2006 were evaluated. Cox proportional hazard models were conducted to evaluate the associations of AA and DA diameters indexed and not indexed for body mass index (BMI) with cardiovascular events and mortality for men and women. Hazard ratios (HRs) were calculated per 1-unit greater SD of aortic diameters. Results A total of 2178 participants (mean age, 69 years; 55% women) were included. Mean follow-up was 9 years. Each 0.23-mm/(kg/m2) larger BMI-indexed AA diameter was associated with a 33% higher cardiovascular mortality risk in women (HR, 1.33; 95% CI: 1.03, 1.73). Each 0.16-mm/(kg/m2) larger BMI-indexed DA diameter was associated with a 38% higher risk of stroke (HR, 1.38; 95% CI: 1.07, 1.78) and with a 46% greater risk of cardiovascular mortality (HR, 1.46; 95% CI: 1.10, 1.94) in women. Larger BMI-indexed AA and DA diameters were associated with greater risk of all-cause mortality in both sexes. Conclusion Larger ascending and descending thoracic aortic diameters indexed by body mass index were associated with greater risk of adverse cardiovascular outcomes and mortality in women and men. Clinical trial registration no. NTR6831 © RSNA, 2022 Online supplemental material is available for this article. See also the editorial by Williams in this issue.

Sex-specific patterns and lifetime risk of multimorbidity in the general population: a 23-year prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Multimorbidity poses a major challenge for care coordination. However, data on what non-communicable diseases lead to multimorbidity, and whether the lifetime risk differs between men and women are lacking. We determined sex-specific differences in multimorbidity patterns and estimated sex-specific lifetime risk of multimorbidity in the general population. METHODS: We followed 6,094 participants from the Rotterdam Study aged 45 years and older for the occurrence of ten diseases (cancer, coronary heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, depression, diabetes, dementia, asthma, heart failure, parkinsonism). We visualised participants' trajectories from a single disease to multimorbidity and the most frequent combinations of diseases. We calculated sex-specific lifetime risk of multimorbidity, considering multimorbidity involving only somatic diseases (1) affecting the same organ system, (2) affecting different organ systems, and (3) multimorbidity involving depression. RESULTS: Over the follow-up period (1993-2016, median years of follow-up 9.2), we observed 6334 disease events. Of the study population, 10.3% had three or more diseases, and 27.9% had two or more diseases. The most frequent pair of co-occurring diseases among men was COPD and cancer (12.5% of participants with multimorbidity), the most frequent pair of diseases among women was depression and dementia (14.9%). The lifetime risk of multimorbidity was similar among men (66.0%, 95% CI: 63.2-68.8%) and women (65.1%, 95% CI: 62.5-67.7%), yet the risk of multimorbidity with depression was higher for women (30.9%, 95% CI: 28.4-33.5%, vs. 17.5%, 95% CI: 15.2-20.1%). The risk of multimorbidity with two diseases affecting the same organ is relatively low for both sexes (4.2% (95% CI: 3.2-5.5%) for men and 4.5% (95% CI: 3.5-5.7%) for women). CONCLUSIONS: Two thirds of people over 45 will develop multimorbidity in their remaining lifetime, with women at nearly double the risk of multimorbidity involving depression than men. These findings call for programmes of integrated care to consider sex-specific differences to ensure men and women are served equally.

Biological Aging for Risk Prediction of First-Ever Intracerebral Hemorrhage and Cerebral Infarction in Advanced Age.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: successful interventions to prevent cerebrovascular disease and stroke require early identification of persons at risk before clinical manifestation of disease. The literature remains to be sparse on accessible plasma-based biomarkers for monitoring brain health and cerebrovascular disease in advanced age. We assessed the predictive value of biological age (BA) as an early indicator for cerebrovascular disease and risk of first-ever intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) and cerebral infarction (CI) in advanced age and compared these relationships with chronological age (CA) and commonly used biomarkers including tau and Aß40 and Aß42. METHODS: The study included Individuals who consented for blood draw and follow-up. We computed biological age using structural equation modelling. The criteria for the biomarkers included their representability of the various body systems; their availability in the Rotterdam study and their pre-hypothesized reflection of aging in other populations. The algorithm integrates biomarkers that represent six body systems involved in overall cerebrovascular health including metabolic function, cardiac function, lung function, kidney function, liver function, immunity, and inflammation. Time to event analysis was conducted using Cox-regression models. Prediction analysis was conducted using Harrel's C and Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. RESULTS: The sample included a total of 1699 individuals at baseline followed up over a median of 11 years. During a period of 15, 780 and 16, 172 person-years, a total of 17 first-ever intracerebral hemorrhage and 83 cerebral infarction cases occurred. In time-to-event analysis, BA showed higher magnitude of associations with ICH compared to CA (HRBA-ICH: 2.30, 95% CI: 1.20, 4.30; HRCA-ICH: 1.40, 95% CI: 0.76, 2.53) and higher precision with CI (HRBA-CI: 1.30, 95% CI: 1.01,1.75; HRCA-CI:1.90, 95% CI: 1.48, 2.66). BA outperformed CA for prediction of ICH (AUC: 0.68 vs 0.53; Harrel's C: 0.72 vs 0.53) and for CI (AUC:0.63 vs 0.62; Harrel's C: 0.68 vs 0.67). CONCLUSIONS: Biological aging (delta biological aging) based on integrated physiology biomarkers provides a novel tool for monitoring and identification of persons at highest risk of cerebrovascular disease in advanced age with varying degrees of precision and magnitude for stroke subtypes. These variations are likely related to differences in pathophysiology of intracerebral hemorrhage and cerebral infarction. Wider validation and applicability require extension of these findings in other comparable samples and in clinical settings.