Changes in UK price disparities between healthy and less healthy foods over 10 years: An updated analysis with insights in the context of inflationary increases in the cost-of-living from 2021.

Food prices and affordability play an important role in influencing dietary choices, which in turn have implications for public health. With inflationary increases in the cost-of-living in the UK since 2021, understanding the dynamics of food prices becomes increasingly important. In this longitudinal study, we aimed to examine changes in food prices from 2013 to 2023 by food group and by food healthiness. We established a dataset spanning the years 2013-2023 by combining price data from the UK Consumer Price Index for food and beverage items with nutrient and food data from the UK nutrient databank and UK Department of Health & Social Care's National Diet and Nutrition Survey data. We calculated the price (£/100 kcal) for each food item by year as well as before and during the period of inflationary pressure, and classified items into food groups according to the UK Eatwell Guide and as either "more healthy" or "less healthy" using the UK nutrient profiling score model. In 2023, bread, rice, potatoes and pasta was cheapest (£0.12/100 kcal) and fruit and vegetables most expensive (£1.01/100 kcal). Less healthy food was cheaper than more healthy food (£0.33/100 kcal versus £0.81/100 kcal). Before the inflationary pressure period (from 2013 to late 2021), the price of foods decreased by 3%. After this period, the price of food increased by 22%: relative increases were highest in the food group milk and dairy food (31%) and less healthy category (26%). While healthier foods saw smaller relative price increases since 2021, they remain more expensive, potentially exacerbating dietary inequalities. Policy responses should ensure food affordability and mitigate price disparities via, for example, healthy food subsidies.

Long term trends in natriuretic peptide testing for heart failure in UK primary care: a cohort study.

AIMS: Heart failure (HF) is a malignant condition with poor outcomes and is often diagnosed on emergency hospital admission. Natriuretic peptide (NP) testing in primary care is recommended in international guidelines to facilitate timely diagnosis. We aimed to report contemporary trends in NP testing and subsequent HF diagnosis rates over time. METHODS AND RESULTS: Cohort study using linked primary and secondary care data of adult (≥45 years) patients in England 2004-18 (n = 7 212 013, 48% male) to report trends in NP testing (over time, by age, sex, ethnicity, and socioeconomic status) and HF diagnosis rates. NP test rates increased from 0.25 per 1000 person-years [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.23-0.26] in 2004 to 16.88 per 1000 person-years (95% CI 16.73-17.03) in 2018, with a significant upward trend in 2010 following publication of national HF guidance. Women and different ethnic groups had similar test rates, and there was more NP testing in older and more socially deprived groups as expected. The HF detection rate was constant over the study period (around 10%) and the proportion of patients without NP testing prior to diagnosis remained high [99.6% (n = 13 484) in 2004 vs. 76.7% (n = 12 978) in 2017]. CONCLUSION: NP testing in primary care has increased over time, with no evidence of significant inequalities, but most patients with HF still do not have an NP test recorded prior to diagnosis. More NP testing in primary care may be needed to prevent hospitalization and facilitate HF diagnosis at an earlier, more treatable stage.

Identifying patterns in unplanned hospital admissions during the COVID-19 pandemic: a single-centre retrospective study.

BACKGROUND: Countries with a high prevalence of COVID-19 have identified a reduction in crude hospital admission rates for non-COVID-19 conditions during the pandemic. There remains a paucity of such data from lower prevalence countries, including Australia. AIMS: To describe the patterns of unplanned hospital daily admission rates during the COVID-19 pandemic in a major Australian metropolitan hospital, with a focus on acute medical presentations including acute coronary syndrome (ACS), stroke and falls. METHODS: This single-centre retrospective analysis analysed hospital admission episodes between 1 March and 30 April 2020 (COVID-19-era) and compared this to a historical cohort during the same period between 2017 and 2019 (pre-COVID-19). Information collected included total admission rates and patient characteristics for ACS, stroke and falls patients. RESULTS: A total of 12 278 unplanned admissions was identified across the study period. The daily admission rate was lower in the COVID-19-era compared with pre-COVID-19 (46.59 vs 51.56 days, P < 0.001). There was also a reduced average daily admission rate for falls (7.79 vs 9.95 days, P < 0.001); however, similar admission rates for ACS (1.52 vs 1.49 days, P = 0.83) and stroke (1.56 vs 1.76 days, P = 0.33). CONCLUSIONS: Public health interventions have been effective in reducing domestic cases of COVID-19 in Australia. At our tertiary metropolitan hospital, we have observed a significant reduction in unplanned hospital admission rates during the COVID-19-era, particularly for falls. Public health messaging needs to focus on educating the public how to seek medical care safely and promptly in the context of the ongoing COVID-19 crisis.

Screening for atrial fibrillation: a call for evidence.

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common cardiac arrhythmia and prevalence is predicted to double over the next 30 years due to changing demographics and the rise in prevalence of risk factors such as hypertension and diabetes. Atrial fibrillation is associated with a five-fold increased stroke risk, but anticoagulation in eligible patients can reduce this risk by around 65%. Many people with AF currently go undetected and therefore untreated, either because they are asymptomatic or because they have paroxysmal AF. Screening has been suggested as one approach to increase AF detection rates and reduce the incidence of ischaemic stroke by earlier initiation of anticoagulation therapy. However, international taskforces currently recommend against screening, citing the cost implications and uncertainty over the benefits of a systematic screening programme compared to usual care. A number of large randomized controlled trials have commenced to determine the cost-effectiveness and clinical benefit of screening using a range of devices and across different populations. The recent AppleWatch study demonstrates how advances in technology are providing the public with self-screening devices that are increasingly affordable and accessible. Health care professionals should be aware of the implications of these emerging data for diagnostic pathways and treatment. This review provides an overview of the gaps in the current evidence and a summary of the arguments for and against screening.

Obesity, self-reported symptom severity, and quality of life in people with atrial fibrillation: A community-based cross-sectional survey.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Intentional weight loss may reduce symptom severity of atrial fibrillation (AF) in relatively young AF patients with overweight. We examined whether symptom severity and quality of life (QoL) are associated with weight status in the general population with AF. METHODS AND RESULTS: Patients with electrocardiogram-confirmed AF completed validated questionnaires: the EuroQol 5 Dimensions QoL questionnaire and the Toronto Atrial Fibrillation Severity Scale (AFSS). The AFSS assessed the AF burden scoring on AF-related symptoms and the total AF burden measured as a combination of duration, frequency, and severity of an irregular heartbeat. Generalized liner models examined the association of body mass index (BMI) with AF severity and QoL adjusting for confounders. Between 2018 and 2019, 882 of 1901 (46%) mailed questionnaires were returned completed. Participants had a mean (SD) age of 74 (10) years old and a BMI of 27.4 (5.6) kg/m2. Sixteen percent reported having never experienced an irregular heartbeat. A 5 kg/m2 higher BMI was associated with a 0.65 (95%CI: 0.25 to 1.06) higher symptom score, where 3 points represent a clinically relevant change in state. A 5 kg/m2 higher BMI was associated with a -1.61 (95%CI: -2.72 to -0.50) lower QoL score. The coefficient of the total AF burden for a 5 kg/m2 higher BMI was 0.17 (95% CI: -0.01 to 0.68). CONCLUSION: BMI was positively associated with symptoms and negatively associated with one of the two measures of QoL, but not with the total AF burden. However, the strength of association was small and not clinically meaningful.

Accordance to the Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension diet pattern and cardiovascular disease in a British, population-based cohort.

The dietary approaches to stop hypertension (DASH) diet could be an important population-level strategy to reduce cardiovascular disease (CVD) in the UK, but there is little UK-based evidence on this diet pattern in relation to CVD risk. We tested whether dietary accordance with DASH was associated with risk of CVD in a population-based sample of 23,655 UK adults. This prospective analysis of the EPIC-Norfolk cohort study analysed dietary intake (assessed using a validated food frequency questionnaire) to measure accordance with DASH, based on intakes of eight food groups and nutrients, ranking the sample into quintiles. Cox proportional hazards regression models tested for association between DASH accordance and incident stroke, ischemic heart disease (IHD) and total incident CVD (stroke and IHD only), as well as CVD mortality, non-CVD mortality and total mortality. Hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated adjusting for age, sex, behavioral and clinical risk factors and socioeconomic status. Over an average of 12.4 years follow-up, we ascertained 4129 incident CVD events, of which stroke accounted for 1011. Compared to participants with the least DASH-accordant diets, those with the most DASH-accordant diets had 20% lower risk of incident stroke (HR, 95% CI 0.80, 0.65-0.99) and 13% lower risk of total incident CVD (0.88, 0.79-0.99) but no lower risk of CHD (0.90, 0.79-1.02). CVD-related mortality also showed strong inverse associations with DASH accordance (0.72, 0.60-0.85). This study provides evidence for the cardioprotective effects of DASH diet in a UK context.

Meeting UK dietary recommendations is associated with higher estimated consumer food costs: an analysis using the National Diet and Nutrition Survey and consumer expenditure data, 2008-2012.

OBJECTIVE: To test whether diets achieving recommendations from the UK's Scientific Advisory Committee on Nutrition (SACN) were associated with higher monetary costs in a nationally representative sample of UK adults. DESIGN: A cross-sectional study linking 4 d diet diaries in the National Diet and Nutrition Survey (NDNS) to contemporaneous food price data from a market research firm. The monetary cost of diets was assessed in relation to whether or not they met eight food- and nutrient-based recommendations from SACN. Regression models adjusted for potential confounding factors. The primary outcome measure was individual dietary cost per day and per 2000 kcal (8368 kJ). SETTING: UK. SUBJECTS: Adults (n 2045) sampled between 2008 and 2012 in the NDNS. RESULTS: On an isoenergetic basis, diets that met the recommendations for fruit and vegetables, oily fish, non-milk extrinsic sugars, fat, saturated fat and salt were estimated to be between 3 and 17 % more expensive. Diets meeting the recommendation for red and processed meats were 4 % less expensive, while meeting the recommendation for fibre was cost-neutral. Meeting multiple targets was also associated with higher costs; on average, diets meeting six or more SACN recommendations were estimated to be 29 % more costly than isoenergetic diets that met no recommendations. CONCLUSIONS: Food costs may be a population-level barrier limiting the adoption of dietary recommendations in the UK. Future research should focus on identifying systems- and individual-level strategies to enable consumers achieve dietary recommendations without increasing food costs. Such strategies may improve the uptake of healthy eating in the population.

Summer climbing incidents occurring on Fujisan's north face from 1989 to 2008.

OBJECTIVE: Few studies exist on climbing-related incidents at Fujisan, although it is Japan's highest peak at 3776 m, and attracts dense crowds of summer climbers. A retrospective review was thus conducted to analyze the types of incidents and the demographics of climbers involved. METHODS: Police reports of summer climbing incidents occurring along the Yoshida trail on Fujisan's north face from 1989 to 2008 were reviewed. Variables assessed included climber age, sex, experience, gear, altitude of incident, and whether the incident occurred during ascent or descent, as well as the cause and severity of any associated injury. RESULTS: A total of 155 incident reports were assessed, including 28 deaths mostly attributable to cardiac events occurring among male climbers during ascent. The majority of nonfatal incidents occurred during descent and most involved tripping. More than half of all incidents were reported at the 8th step (approximately 3000 m). The frequent appearance of male climbers without experience or adequate footwear reflects Fujisan's summer demographics, yet the injury rate appears higher among older climbers more than 50 years of age. There were also 28 noninjury incidents attributed to acute mountain sickness or fatigue. CONCLUSIONS: This retrospective review describes the demographics of summer climbing incidents on Fujisan's north face. Additionally, limitations to the current method of incident reporting were identified. More comprehensive recordkeeping would increase understanding of injuries and illness, which could improve resource allocation and reduce the risk of fatalities from out-of-hospital cardiac events.

Body mass index and survival in people with heart failure.

AIMS: In people with heart failure (HF), a high body mass index (BMI) has been linked with better outcomes ('obesity paradox'), but there is limited evidence in community populations across long-term follow-up. We aimed to examine the association between BMI and long-term survival in patients with HF in a large primary care cohort. METHODS: We included patients with incident HF aged ≥45 years from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (2000-2017). We used Kaplan-Meier curves, Cox regression and penalised spline methods to assess the association of pre-diagnostic BMI, based on WHO classification, with all-cause mortality. RESULTS: There were 47 531 participants with HF (median age 78.0 years (IQR 70-84), 45.8% female, 79.0% white ethnicity, median BMI 27.1 (IQR 23.9-31.0)) and 25 013 (52.6%) died during follow-up. Compared with healthy weight, people with overweight (HR 0.78, 95% CI 0.75 to 0.81, risk difference (RD) -4.1%), obesity class I (HR 0.76, 95% CI 0.73 to 0.80, RD -4.5%) and class II (HR 0.76, 95% CI 0.71 to 0.81, RD -4.5%) were at decreased risk of death, whereas people with underweight were at increased risk (HR 1.59, 95% CI 1.45 to 1.75, RD 11.2%). In those underweight, this risk was greater among men than women (p value for interaction=0.02). Class III obesity was associated with increased risk of all-cause mortality compared with overweight (HR 1.23, 95% CI 1.17 to 1.29). CONCLUSION: The U-shaped relationship between BMI and long-term all-cause mortality suggests a personalised approach to identifying optimal weight may be needed for patients with HF in primary care. Underweight people have the poorest prognosis and should be recognised as high-risk.

Diagnostic accuracy of natriuretic peptide screening for left ventricular systolic dysfunction in the community: systematic review and meta-analysis.

AIMS: Heart failure (HF) is a global health burden and new strategies to achieve timely diagnosis and early intervention are urgently needed. Natriuretic peptide (NP) testing can be used to screen for left ventricular systolic dysfunction (LVSD), but evidence on test performance is mixed, and international HF guidelines differ in their recommendations. Our aim was to summarize the evidence on diagnostic accuracy of NP screening for LVSD in general and high-risk community populations and estimate optimal screening thresholds. METHODS: We searched relevant databases up to August 2020 for studies with a screened community population of over 100 adults reporting NP performance to diagnose LVSD. Study inclusion, quality assessment, and data extraction were conducted independently and in duplicate. Diagnostic test meta-analysis used hierarchical summary receiver operating characteristic curves to obtain estimates of pooled accuracy to detect LVSD, with optimal thresholds obtained to maximize the sum of sensitivity and specificity. RESULTS: Twenty-four studies were identified, involving 26 565 participants: eight studies in high-risk populations (at least one cardiovascular risk factor), 12 studies in general populations, and four in both high-risk and general populations combined. For detecting LVSD in screened high-risk populations with N-terminal prohormone brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), the pooled sensitivity was 0.87 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.73-0.94] and specificity 0.84 (95% CI 0.55-0.96); for BNP, sensitivity was 0.75 (95% CI 0.65-0.83) and specificity 0.78 (95% CI 0.72-0.84). Heterogeneity between studies was high with variations in positivity threshold. Due to a paucity of high-risk studies that assessed NP performance at multiple thresholds, it was not possible to calculate optimal thresholds for LVSD screening in high-risk populations alone. To provide an indication of where the positivity threshold might lie, the pooled accuracy for LVSD screening in high-risk and general community populations were combined and gave an optimal cut-off of 311 pg/mL [sensitivity 0.74 (95% CI 0.53-0.88), specificity 0.85 (95% CI 0.68-0.93)] for NT-proBNP and 49 pg/mL [sensitivity 0.68 (95% CI 0.45-0.85), specificity 0.81 (0.67-0.90)] for BNP. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that in high-risk community populations NP screening may accurately detect LVSD, potentially providing an important opportunity for diagnosis and early intervention. Our study highlights an urgent need for further prospective studies, as well as an individual participant data meta-analysis, to more precisely evaluate diagnostic accuracy and identify optimal screening thresholds in specifically defined community-based populations to inform future guideline recommendations.

Natriuretic peptide testing and heart failure diagnosis in primary care: diagnostic accuracy study.

BACKGROUND: Natriuretic peptide (NP) testing is recommended for patients presenting to primary care with symptoms of chronic heart failure (HF) to prioritise referral for diagnosis. AIM: To report NP test performance at European Society of Cardiology (ESC) and National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) guideline referral thresholds. DESIGN AND SETTING: Diagnostic accuracy study using linked primary and secondary care data (2004 to 2018). METHOD: The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) of NP testing for HF diagnosis was assessed. RESULTS: In total, 229 580 patients had an NP test and 21 102 (9.2%) were diagnosed with HF within 6 months. The ESC NT-proBNP threshold ≥125 pg/mL had a sensitivity of 94.6% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 94.2 to 95.0) and specificity of 50.0% (95% CI = 49.7 to 50.3), compared with sensitivity of 81.7% (95% CI = 81.0 to 82.3) and specificity of 80.3% (95% CI = 80.0 to 80.5) for the NICE NT-proBNP ≥400 pg/mL threshold. PPVs for an NT-proBNP test were 16.4% (95% CI = 16.1 to 16.6) and 30.0% (95% CI = 29.6 to 30.5) for ESC and NICE thresholds, respectively. For both guidelines, nearly all patients with an NT-proBNP level below the threshold did not have HF (NPV: ESC 98.9%, 95% CI = 98.8 to 99.0 and NICE 97.7%, 95% CI = 97.6 to 97.8). CONCLUSION: At the higher NICE chronic HF guideline NP thresholds, one in five cases are initially missed in primary care but the lower ESC thresholds require more diagnostic assessments. NP is a reliable 'rule-out' test at both cut-points. The optimal NP threshold will depend on the priorities and capacity of the healthcare system.

Collagen-induced arthritis is exacerbated in C-reactive protein-deficient mice.

OBJECTIVE: Blood C-reactive protein (CRP) is routinely measured to gauge inflammation. In rheumatoid arthritis (RA), a heightened CRP level is predictive of a poor outcome, while a lowered CRP level is indicative of a positive response to therapy. CRP interacts with the innate and adaptive immune systems in ways that suggest it may be causal in RA and, although this is not proven, it is widely assumed that CRP makes a detrimental contribution to the disease process. Paradoxically, results from animal studies have indicated that CRP might be beneficial in RA. This study was undertaken to study the role of CRP in a mouse model of RA, the collagen-induced arthritis (CIA) model. METHODS: We compared the impact of CRP deficiency with that of transgenic overexpression of CRP on inflammatory and immune responses in mice, using CRP-deficient (Crp-/-) and human CRP-transgenic (CRP-Tg) mice, respectively. Susceptibility to CIA, a disease that resembles RA in humans, was compared between wild-type, Crp-/-, and CRP-Tg mice. RESULTS: CRP deficiency significantly altered the inflammatory cytokine response evoked by challenge with endotoxin or anti-CD3 antibody, and heightened some immune responses. Compared to that in wild-type mice, CIA in Crp-/- mice progressed more rapidly and was more severe, whereas CIA in CRP-Tg mice was dramatically attenuated. Despite these disparate clinical outcomes, anticollagen autoantibody responses during CIA did not differ among the genotypes. CONCLUSION: CRP exerts an early and beneficial effect in mice with CIA. The mechanism of this effect remains unknown but does not involve improvement of the autoantibody profile. In humans, the presumed detrimental role of a heightened blood CRP level during active RA might be balanced by a beneficial effect of the baseline CRP (i.e., levels manifest during the preclinical stages of disease).

A Systematic Review of Economic Aspects of Service Interventions to Increase Anticoagulation Use in Atrial Fibrillation.

OBJECTIVE: To systematically identify and appraise existing evidence surrounding economic aspects of anticoagulation service interventions for patients with atrial fibrillation. METHODS: We searched the published and grey literature up to October 2019 to identify relevant economic evidence in any health care setting. A narrative-synthesis approach was taken to summarise evidence by economic design and type of service intervention, with costs expressed in pound sterling and valued at 2017 to 2018 prices. RESULTS: A total of 13 studies met our inclusion criteria from 1,168 papers originally identified. Categories of interventions included anticoagulation clinics (n = 4), complex interventions (n = 4), decision support tools (n = 3) and patient-centred approaches (n = 2). Anticoagulation clinics were cost-saving compared with usual care (range for mean cost difference: £188-£691 per-patient per-year) with equivalent health outcomes. Only one economic evaluation of a complex intervention was conducted; case management was more expensive than usual care (mean cost difference: £255 per-patient per-year) and the probability of its cost-effectiveness did not exceed 70%. There was limited economic evidence surrounding decision support tools or patient-centred approaches. Targeting service interventions at high-risk groups and those with suboptimal treatment was most likely to result in cost savings. CONCLUSION: This review revealed some evidence to support the cost-effectiveness of anticoagulation clinics. However, summative conclusions are constrained by a paucity of economic evidence, a lack of direct comparisons between interventions, and study heterogeneity in terms of intervention, comparator and study year. Further research is urgently needed to inform commissioning and service development. Data from this review can inform future economic evaluations of anticoagulation service interventions.

Natriuretic peptide level at heart failure diagnosis and risk of hospitalisation and death in England 2004-2018.

OBJECTIVE: Heart failure (HF) is a malignant condition requiring urgent treatment. Guidelines recommend natriuretic peptide (NP) testing in primary care to prioritise referral for specialist diagnostic assessment. We aimed to assess association of baseline NP with hospitalisation and mortality in people with newly diagnosed HF. METHODS: Population-based cohort study of 40 007 patients in the Clinical Practice Research Datalink in England with a new HF diagnosis (48% men, mean age 78.5 years). We used linked primary and secondary care data between 1 January 2004 and 31 December 2018 to report one-year hospitalisation and 1-year, 5-year and 10-year mortality by NP level. RESULTS: 22 085 (55%) participants were hospitalised in the year following diagnosis. Adjusted odds of HF-related hospitalisation in those with a high NP (NT-proBNP >2000 pg/mL) were twofold greater (OR 2.26 95% CI 1.98 to 2.59) than a moderate NP (NT-proBNP 400-2000 pg/mL). All-cause mortality rates in the high NP group were 27%, 62% and 82% at 1, 5 and 10 years, compared with 19%, 50% and 77%, respectively, in the moderate NP group and, in a competing risks model, risk of HF-related death was 50% higher at each timepoint. Median time between NP test and HF diagnosis was 101 days (IQR 19-581). CONCLUSIONS: High baseline NP is associated with increased HF-related hospitalisation and poor survival. While healthcare systems remain under pressure from the impact of COVID-19, research to test novel strategies to prevent hospitalisation and improve outcomes-such as a mandatory two-week HF diagnosis pathway-is urgently needed.

National trends in heart failure mortality in men and women, United Kingdom, 2000-2017.

AIMS: To understand gender differences in the prognosis of women and men with heart failure, we compared mortality, cause of death and survival trends over time. METHODS AND RESULTS: We analysed UK primary care data for 26 725 women and 29 234 men over age 45 years with a new diagnosis of heart failure between 1 January 2000 and 31 December 2017 using the Clinical Practice Research Datalink, inpatient Hospital Episode Statistics and the Office for National Statistics death registry. Age-specific overall survival and cause-specific mortality rates were calculated by gender and year. During the study period 15 084 women and 15 822 men with heart failure died. Women were on average 5 years older at diagnosis (79.6 vs. 74.8 years). Median survival was lower in women compared to men (3.99 vs. 4.47 years), but women had a 14% age-adjusted lower risk of all-cause mortality [hazard ratio (HR) 0.86, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.84-0.88]. Heart failure was equally likely to be cause of death in women and men (HR 1.03, 95% CI 0.96-1.12). There were modest improvements in survival for both genders, but these were greater in men. The reduction in mortality risk in women was greatest for those diagnosed in the community (HR 0.83, 95% CI 0.80-0.85). CONCLUSIONS: Women are diagnosed with heart failure older than men but have a better age-adjusted prognosis. Survival gains were less in women over the last two decades. Addressing gender differences in heart failure diagnostic and treatment pathways should be a clinical and research priority.

Survival of people with valvular heart disease in a large, English community-based cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: Valvular heart disease (VHD) is present in half the population aged >65 years but is usually mild and of uncertain importance. We investigated the association between VHD and its phenotypes with all-cause and cause-specific mortality. METHODS: The OxVALVE (Oxford Valvular Heart Disease) population cohort study screened 4009 participants aged >65 years to establish the presence and severity of VHD. We linked data to a national mortality registry and undertook detailed outcome analysis. RESULTS: Mortality data were available for 3511 participants, of whom 361 (10.3%) died (median 6.49 years follow-up). Most had some form of valve abnormality (n=2645, 70.2%). In adjusted analyses, neither mild VHD (prevalence 44.9%) nor clinically significant VHD (moderate or severe stenosis or regurgitation; 5.2%) was associated with increased all-cause mortality (HR 1.20, 95% CI 0.96 to 1.51 and HR 1.47, 95% CI 0.94 to 2.31, respectively). Conversely, advanced aortic sclerosis (prevalence 2.25%) and advanced mitral annular calcification (MAC, 1.31%) were associated with an increased risk of death (HR 2.05, 95% CI 1.28 to 3.30 and HR 2.51, 95% CI 1.41 to 4.49, respectively). Mortality was highest for people with both clinically significant VHD and advanced aortic sclerosis or MAC (HR 4.38, 95% CI 1.99 to 9.67). CONCLUSIONS: Advanced aortic sclerosis or MAC is associated with a worse outcome, particularly for patients with significant VHD, but also in the absence of other VHD. Older patients with mild VHD can be reassured about their prognosis. The absence of an association between significant VHD and mortality may reflect its relatively low prevalence in our cohort.

Disability and visual outcomes following suspected abusive head trauma in children under 2 years.

AIM: To report disability and visual outcomes following suspected abusive head trauma (AHT) in children under 2 years. METHODS: We present a retrospective case series (1995-2017) of children with suspected AHT aged ≤24 months. King's Outcome Score of Childhood Head Injury (KOSCHI) was used to assess disability outcomes at hospital discharge and at follow-up. The study used a retinal haemorrhage score (RHS) to record findings at presentation and a visual outcome score at follow-up. RESULTS: We included 44 children (median age 16 weeks). At presentation, 98% had a subdural haemorrhage and 93% had a retinal haemorrhage. At discharge, 61% had moderate-to-severe disability, and 34% a good recovery. A higher RHS was observed in those with more disability (r=-0.54, p=0.0002). At follow-up, 14% had a worse KOSCHI score (p=0.055). 35% children had visual impairment, including 9% with no functional vision. Those with poorer visual function had a higher RHS (r=0.53, p=0.003). 28% attended mainstream school without support; 50% were in foster care or had been adopted, 32% lived with birth mother and 18% with extended family. CONCLUSION: It is known that injuries from suspected AHT result in high levels of morbidity; our cohort showed significant rates of disability and visual impairment. Those with higher disability at discharge and poorer visual function showed more significant retinal changes. The extent of disability was not always apparent at hospital discharge, impacting on provision of prognostic information and targeted follow-up.