Effect of statin treatment on the risk of cancer in patients with heart failure: A target trial emulation study.

PURPOSE: A recent observational study suggested statins could reduce cancer diagnosis in patients with heart failure (HF). The findings need to be validated using robust epidemiological methods. This study aimed to evaluate the effect of statin treatment on the risk of cancer in patients with HF. METHODS: We conducted two target trial emulations using primary care data from IQVIA Medical Research Database-UK (2000 to 2019) with a clone-censor-weight design. The first emulated trial addressed the treatment initiation effect: initiating within 1 year versus not initiating a statin after the HF diagnosis. The second emulated trial addressed the cumulative exposure effect: continuing a statin for ≤3 years, 3-6 years, and >6 years after initiation. The study outcomes were any incident cancer and site-specific cancer diagnoses. Weighted pooled logistic regression models were used to estimate 10-year risk ratios (RR). 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using non-parametric bootstrapping. RESULTS: The first emulated trial showed that, compared to no statin, statins did not reduce the cancer risk in patients with HF (RR, 1.05; 95% CI, 0.94-1.15). The second emulated trial showed that, compared to treatment ≤3 years, statins with longer durations did not reduce the cancer risk (3-6 years: RR, 0.94; 95% CI, 0.70-1.33. >6 years: RR, 0.97; 95% CI, 0.79-1.26). No significant risk difference was observed on any site-specific cancer diagnoses. CONCLUSIONS: The results from the target trial emulations suggest that statin treatment is not associated with cancer risk in patients with HF.

Risk of hospitalization for upper gastrointestinal bleeding in Helicobacter pylori eradicated patients newly started on warfarin or direct oral anticoagulants: A population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: To investigate risks of hospitalization for upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) in H. pylori-eradicated patients newly started on warfarin or direct oral anti-coagulants (DOACs). METHODS: We identified all patients who had previously received H. pylori eradication therapy or were found to have no H. pylori on endoscopy and were then newly started on warfarin or DOACs from a population-based electronic healthcare database. Primary analysis was the risk of UGIB between warfarin and DOACs users in H. pylori-eradicated patients. Secondary analysis included the UGIB risk between H. pylori-eradicated and H. pylori-negative patients who were newly started on warfarin or DOACs. The hazard ratio (HR) of UGIB was approximated by pooled logistic regression model incorporating the inverse propensity of treatment weightings with time-varying covariables. RESULTS: Among H. pylori-eradicated patients, DOACs had a significantly lower risk of UGIB (HR: 0.26, 95% CI 0.09-0.71) compared with warfarin. In particular, lower UGIB risks with DOACs were observed among older (≥65 years) patients, female, those without a history of UGIB or peptic ulcer, or ischemic heart disease, and non-users of acid-suppressive agents or aspirin. Secondary analysis showed no significant difference in UGIB risk between H. pylori-eradicated and H. pylori-negative patients newly started on warfarin (HR: 0.63,95% CI 0.33-1.19) or DOACs (HR: 1.37, 95% CI 0.45-4.22). CONCLUSIONS: In H. pylori-eradicated patients, new users of DOACs had a significantly lower risk of UGIB than new warfarin users. Furthermore, the risk of UGIB in new warfarin or DOACs users was comparable between H. pylori-eradicated and H. pylori-negative patients.

Statin-related adverse drug reactions in UK primary care consultations: A retrospective cohort study to evaluate the risk of cardiovascular events and all-cause mortality.

AIMS: To investigate the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) events and all-cause mortality in patients with statin-related adverse drug reaction (ADR) consultation in primary care and examine whether different treatments following the ADR affect subsequent outcomes. METHODS: This was a retrospective cohort study of statin users between 2004 and 2019 using IQVIA Medical Research Data (formally known as the THIN database). Patients with statin-related ADR consultation were matched by propensity score (1:1) to statin users without ADR consultation based on demographics, comorbidities and concomitant medication. Cox proportional hazard regression was used to compare the risk of subsequent CVD event and all-cause mortality, stratified by history of CVD. In the secondary analysis among patients with statin-related ADR, treatment changes within a 1-year period following the ADR were examined and the outcomes were compared between different treatment groups. RESULTS: Among 1 564 687 statin users, 19 035 (1.22%) had a statin-related ADR consultation in primary care. The mean (standard deviation) follow-up time was 6.32 (3.74) years and 5.31 (3.83) years for CVD primary and secondary prevention cohorts, respectively. Statin-related ADR consultation was associated with subsequent CVD events in both cohorts (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] of 1.39 [95% CI 1.23, 1.57] and 1.34 [95% CI 1.25,1.42], respectively). In the secondary analysis among patients with statin-related ADR consultation, we found that (i) continued statin prescription or combination of any statin with additional lipid-lowering treatment (LLT) and (ii) other LLT only were associated with lower risks of CVD event (adjusted HR 0.71 [95% CI 0.64, 0.78] and 0.75 [95% CI 0.62, 0.92], respectively) and all-cause mortality (adjusted HR 0.46 [95% CI 0.42, 0.50] and 0.52 [95% CI, 0.43, 0.64], respectively), compared to discontinuation of all LLT. CONCLUSION: Statin-related ADR was associated with an increased risk of subsequent CVD event, indicating that these patients should be monitored more closely. Continued lipid-lowering medication is of importance to protect against CVD events and mortality.

Effects of Phosphodiesterase-5 Inhibitors in Patients with Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a major burden of healthcare worldwide. We aimed to determine the effects of PDE-5 inhibitors on clinical outcomes and haemodynamic parameters in patients with COPD. A PROSPERO-registered systematic review and meta-analysis (identification number CRD42021227578) were performed to analyse the effects of PDE-5 inhibitors in patients with COPD. Data were sourced from MEDLINE, EMBASE, Cochrane Register of Controlled Trials and "ClinicalTrials.gov." Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) comparing PDE-5 inhibitors with control in patients with COPD were included. Quality assessment was carried out using the Cochrane Collaboration's tool for assessing the risk of bias in randomised trials. The pooled mean difference of 6-minute walk distance (6MWD) and mean pulmonary arterial pressure based on inverse variance estimation were analysed with a fixed-effect model or random-effects model meta-analysis. Nine RCTs involving 414 patients were included in the review. There was no significant difference in 6MWD (mean difference = 22.06 metres, 95% confidence interval (CI), -5.80 to 49.91). However, there was a statistically significant difference between PDE-5 inhibitor and control groups in mean pulmonary artery pressure (mean difference = -3.83 mmHg, 95% CI, -5.93 to -1.74). Headaches were the most common adverse event, occurring significantly in the PDE-5 inhibitor intervention group (odds ratio 3.83, 95% CI, 1.49 to 9.86). This systematic review indicates that PDE-5 inhibitors do not improve exercise capacity despite some possible improvements in haemodynamic parameters in COPD patients.

Global trends in symptomatic medication use against dementia in 66 countries/regions from 2008 to 2018.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: The aim was to determine trends and patterns of symptomatic medication used against dementia in 66 countries and regions. METHODS: This was a cross-sectional study that used the wholesale data from the IQVIA Multinational Integrated Data Analysis System database. Sale data for symptomatic medication against dementia from 66 countries and regions from 2008 to 2018 were analysed and stratified by income level (low/middle-income countries [LMICs], n = 27; high-income countries [HICs], n = 37; regions, n = 2). The medication use volume was estimated by defined daily dose (DDD) per 1000 inhabitants per day (World Health Organization DDD harmonized the size, strength and form of each pack and reflects average dosing). Changes in medication use over time were quantified as percentage changes in compound annual growth rates (CAGRs). RESULTS: Total symptomatic medication against dementia sales increased from 0.85 to 1.33 DDD per 1000 inhabitants per day between 2008 and 2018 (LMICs 0.094-0.396; HICs 3.88-5.04), which is an increase of CAGR of 4.53% per year. The increase was mainly driven by the LMICs (CAGR = 15.42%) in comparison to the HICs (CAGR = 2.65%). The overall medication use from 2008 to 2018 increased for all four agents: memantine (CAGR = 8.51%), rivastigmine (CAGR = 6.91%), donepezil (CAGR = 2.72%) and galantamine (CAGR = 0.695%). In 2018, the most commonly used medication globally was donepezil, contributing to 49.8% of total use volume, followed by memantine (32.7%), rivastigmine (11.24%) and galantamine (6.36%). CONCLUSION: There was an increasing trend in the use of symptomatic medications against dementia globally, but the use remained low in LMICs. Interventions may be needed to support the medication use in some countries.

Comparative cardiovascular risk in users versus non-users of xanthine oxidase inhibitors and febuxostat versus allopurinol users.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study is to determine major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) and all-cause mortality comparing between xanthine oxidase inhibitors (XOIs) and non-XOI users, and between allopurinol and febuxostat. METHODS: This is a retrospective cohort study of gout patients prescribed anti-hyperuricemic medications between 2013 and 2017 using a territory-wide administrative database. XOI users were matched 1:1 to XOI non-users using propensity scores. Febuxostat users were matched 1:3 to allopurinol users. Subgroup analyses were conducted based on colchicine use. RESULTS: Of the 13 997 eligible participants, 3607 (25.8%) were XOI users and 10 390 (74.2%) were XOI non-users. After propensity score matching, compared with non-users (n = 3607), XOI users (n = 3607) showed similar incidence of MACE (hazard ratio [HR]: 0.997, 95% CI, 0.879, 1.131; P>0.05) and all-cause mortality (HR = 0.972, 95% CI 0.886, 1.065, P=0.539). Febuxostat (n = 276) users showed a similar risk of MACE compared with allopurinol users (n = 828; HR: 0.672, 95% CI, 0.416, 1.085; P=0.104) with a tendency towards a lower risk of heart failure-related hospitalizations (HR = 0.529, 95% CI 0.272, 1.029; P=0.061). Concurrent colchicine use reduced the risk for all-cause mortality amongst XOI users (HR = 0.671, 95% 0.586, 0.768; P<0.001). CONCLUSION: In gout patients, XOI users showed similar risk of MACE and all-cause mortality compared with non-users. Compared with allopurinol users, febuxostat users showed similar MACE and all-cause mortality risks but lower heart failure-related hospitalizations.

Phosphodiesterase Type 5 Inhibitors in Men With Erectile Dysfunction and the Risk of Alzheimer Disease: A Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Repurposing phosphodiesterase type 5 inhibitors (PDE5Is) as drugs for Alzheimer disease (AD) risk reduction has shown promise based on animal studies. However, evidence in humans remains inconclusive. Therefore, we conducted a cohort study to evaluate the association between PDE5I initiation compared with nonuse and the risk of developing AD in men with erectile dysfunction (ED). METHODS: Using electronic health records from IQVIA Medical Research Data UK (formerly known as the THIN database), we identified men aged ≥40 years with a new diagnosis of ED between 2000 and 2017. Individuals with a previous diagnosis of dementia, cognitive impairment, confusion, or prescription for dementia symptoms were excluded. The occurrence of incident AD was identified using diagnostic read codes. To minimize immortal-time bias, PDE5I initiation was treated as a time-varying exposure variable. Potential confounders were adjusted using inverse probability of treatment weighting based on propensity scores. Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate the adjusted hazard ratio (HR) with 95% CIs. A secondary analysis explored the association between AD and the cumulative number of PDE5I prescriptions. Sensitivity analyses included lag (delay) periods of 1 and 3 years after cohort entry to address the prodromal stage of AD. RESULTS: The study included 269,725 men, with 1,119 newly diagnosed with AD during a median follow-up of 5.1 (interquartile range 2.9-8.9) years. The adjusted HR in PDE5I initiators compared with nonuse was 0.82 (95% CI 0.72-0.93). The associated risk of AD decreased in individuals issued >20 prescriptions: HR 0.56 (95% CI 0.43-0.73) for 21-50 prescriptions and HR 0.65 (95% CI 0.49-0.87) for >50 prescriptions. Sensitivity analysis with a 1-year lag period supported the primary findings (HR 0.82, 95% CI 0.72-0.94), but the results differed with the inclusion of a 3-year lag period (HR 0.93, 95% CI 0.80-1.08). DISCUSSION: PDE5I initiation in men with ED was associated with a lower risk of AD, particularly in those most frequently issued prescriptions. The differences between primary and sensitivity analyses highlight the need to explore the optimal lag period. To enhance the generalizability of our findings, a randomized controlled trial including both sexes and exploring various PDE5I doses would be beneficial to confirm the association between PDE5I and AD.

Use of heart failure medical therapy before and after a cancer diagnosis: A longitudinal study.

AIMS: We aim to evaluate change in the use of prognostic guideline-directed medical therapies (GDMTs) for heart failure (HF) before and after a cancer diagnosis as well as the matched non-cancer controls, including renin-angiotensin-system inhibitors (RASIs), beta-blockers, and mineralocorticoid receptor antagonists (MRAs). METHODS AND RESULTS: We conducted a longitudinal study in patients with HF in the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink between 2005 and 2021. We selected patients with probable HF with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) based on diagnostic and prescription records. We described the longitudinal trends in the use and dosing of GDMTs before and after receiving an incident cancer diagnosis. HF patients with cancer were matched with a 1:1 ratio to HF patients without cancer to investigate the association between cancer diagnosis and treatment adherence, persistence, initiation, and dose titration as odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) using multivariable logistic regression models. Of 8504 eligible HFrEF patients with incident cancer, 4890 were matched to controls without cancer. The mean age was 75.7 (±8.4) years and 73.9% were male. In the 12 months following a cancer diagnosis, patients experienced reductions in the use and dosing of GDMT. Compared with the non-cancer controls, patients with cancer had higher risks for poor adherence for all three medication classes (RASIs: OR = 1.51, 95% CI = 1.35-1.68; beta-blockers: OR = 1.22, 95% CI = 1.08-1.37; MRAs: OR = 1.31, 95% CI = 1.08-1.59) and poor persistence (RASIs: OR = 2.04, 95% CI = 1.75-2.37; beta-blockers: OR = 1.35, 95% CI = 1.12-1.63; MRAs: OR = 1.49, 95% CI = 1.16-1.93), and higher risks for dose down-titration for RASIs (OR = 1.69, 95% CI = 1.40-2.04) and beta-blockers (OR = 1.31, 95% CI = 1.05-1.62). Cancer diagnosis was not associated with treatment initiation or dose up-titration. Event rates for HF hospitalization and mortality were higher in patients with poor adherence or persistence to GDMTs. CONCLUSIONS: Following a cancer diagnosis, patients with HFrEF were more likely to have reduced use of GDMTs for HF.

Associations of Serum Lipid Traits With Fracture and Osteoporosis: A Prospective Cohort Study From the UK Biobank.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies reveal inconsistent associations between serum lipid traits and the risks of fractures and osteoporosis in the general population. METHODS: This prospective cohort study analysed data from 414 302 UK Biobank participants (223 060 women and 191 242 men, aged 37-73 years) with serum lipid measurements: apolipoprotein A (Apo A), apolipoprotein B (Apo B), total cholesterol (TC), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), triglycerides (TG) and lipoprotein A (Lp(a)). Multivariable Cox proportional hazard models with penalized cubic splines were used to explore potential nonlinear associations of each lipid trait with the risks of fractures and osteoporosis. Subgroup analyses by age, sex, BMI categories and pre-existing cardiovascular disease were conducted. Mediation analyses using the g-formula were performed to quantify to which extent bone mineral density (BMD) may mediate the association between serum lipids and fracture risk. RESULTS: Over a median follow-up period of 13.8 years, 25 918 (6.8%) of the 383 530 participants without prior fracture had incident fracture cases, and 7591 (4.1%) of the 184 919 participants with primary care data and without baseline osteoporosis were diagnosed with osteoporosis. TG had nonlinear associations with fractures and osteoporosis, whereas Apo B, TC and LDL-C had linear associations. There were also nonlinear associations of Apo A and HDL-C with fractures. Individuals in the highest quintiles for Apo A (fracture: HR 1.15 [95% CI 1.10, 1.21]; osteoporosis: HR 1.13 [1.02, 1.25]) and HDL-C (fracture: HR 1.27 [1.20, 1.34]; osteoporosis: HR 1.31 [1.18, 1.46]) were associated with higher risks of fractures and osteoporosis. Conversely, those in the highest quintile for Apo B (fracture: HR 0.85 [0.81, 0.89]; osteoporosis: HR 0.86 [0.79, 0.94]), LDL-C (fracture: HR 0.89 [0.85, 0.93]; osteoporosis: HR 0.91 [0.83, 1.00]) and TG (fracture: HR 0.78 [0.74, 0.82]; osteoporosis: HR 0.75 [0.68, 0.82]) were associated with lower risks. The associations of Apo A (ratio of HR [RHR] 1.05 [1.02, 1.09]) and HDL-C (RHR 1.06 [1.03, 1.09]) with fracture risk were more pronounced in men compared to women. Except for TG and Lp(a), the associations between serum lipids and fractures appear to be partially mediated through BMD (mediation proportions: 5.30% to 40.30%), assuming causality. CONCLUSIONS: Our study reveals a complex interplay between different lipid markers and skeletal health, potentially partially mediated through BMD. Routine lipid profile assessments, including HDL-C and Apo A among other lipid traits, may be integrated into the strategies for fracture risk stratification.

Impact of ACEIs and ARBs-related adverse drug reaction on patients' clinical outcomes: a cohort study in UK primary care.

BACKGROUND: Adverse drug reaction (ADR) related to angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors (ACEIs) and angiotensin receptor blockers (ARBs) may negatively affect patients' treatment outcomes. AIM: To investigate the impact of ACEIs/ARBs-related ADR consultation on cardiovascular disease (CVD) events and all-cause mortality. DESIGN AND SETTING: Propensity score-matched cohort study of ACEIs/ARBs between 2004 and 2019 using UK IQVIA medical research data. METHOD: ADR consultations were identified using standardised designated codes. Propensity scores were calculated based on comorbidities, concomitant medications, frailty, and polypharmacy. Cox's proportional hazard regression model was used to compare the outcomes between patients in ADR and non-ADR groups. In the secondary analysis, treatment- pattern changes following the ADR were examined and the subsequent outcomes were compared. RESULTS: Among 1 471 906 eligible users of ACEIs/ARBs, 13 652 (0.93%) patients had ACEIs/ARBs- related ADR consultation in primary care. Patients with ACEIs/ARBs-related ADR consultation had an increased risk of subsequent CVD events and all- cause mortality in both primary prevention (CVD events: adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 1.22, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.05 to 1.43; all-cause mortality: aHR 1.14, 95% CI = 1.01 to 1.27) and secondary prevention cohorts (CVD events: aHR 1.13, 95% CI = 1.05 to 1.21; all-cause mortality: aHR 1.15, 95% CI = 1.09 to 1.21). Half (50.19%) of patients with ADR continued to use ACEIs/ARBs, and these patients had a reduced risk of mortality (aHR 0.88, 95% CI = 0.82 to 0.95) compared with those who discontinued using ACEIs/ARBs. CONCLUSION: This study provides information on the burden of ADR on patients and the health system. The findings call for additional monitoring and treatment strategies for patients affected by ADR to mitigate the risks of adverse clinical outcomes.

Impact of beta-blockers on mortality and cardiovascular disease outcomes in patients with obstructive sleep apnoea: a population-based cohort study in target trial emulation framework.

Background: There is no real-world evidence regarding the association between beta-blocker use and mortality or cardiovascular outcomes in patients with obstructive sleep apnoea (OSA). We aimed to investigate the impact of beta-blocker use on all-cause mortality and cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) in patients with OSA. Methods: We conducted a target trial emulation study of 37,581 patients with newly diagnosed OSA from 1st January 2000 to 30th November 2021 using the IMRD-UK database (formerly known as the THIN database). We compared the treatment strategies of initiating beta-blocker treatment within one year versus non-beta-blocker treatment through the method of clone-censor-weight. Covariates, including patients' demographics, lifestyle, comorbidities, and recent medications, were measured and controlled. Patients were followed up for all-cause mortality or composite CVD outcomes (angina, myocardial infarction, stroke/transient ischaemic attack, heart failure, or atrial fibrillation). We estimated the five-year absolute risks, risk differences and risk ratio with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) with standardised, weighted pooled logistic regression, which is a discrete-time hazard model for survival analysis. Several sensitivity analyses were performed, including multiple imputation addressing the missing data. Findings: The median follow-up time was 4.1 (interquartile range, 1.9-7.8) years. The five-year absolute risk of all-cause mortality and CVD outcomes were 4.9% (95% CI, 3.8-6.0) and 13.0% (95% CI, 11.4-15.0) among beta-blocker users, and 4.0% (95% CI, 3.8-4.2) and 9.4% (95% CI, 9.1-9.7) among non-beta-blocker users, respectively. The five-year absolute risk difference and risk ratio between the two groups for all-cause mortality and CVD outcomes were 0.9% (95% CI, -0.2 to 2.1) and 1.22 (95% CI, 0.96-1.54), and 3.5% (95% CI, 2.1-5.5) and 1.37 (95% CI, 1.22-1.62), respectively. Findings were consistent across the sensitivity analyses. Interpretation: Beta-blocker treatment was associated with an increased risk of CVD and a trend for an increased risk of mortality among patients with OSA. Further studies are needed to confirm our findings. Funding: Innovation and Technology Commission of the Hong Kong Special Administration Region Government.

Prevalence of chronic pain or analgesic use in children and young people and its long-term impact on substance misuse, mental illness, and prescription opioid use: a retrospective longitudinal cohort study.

Background: Epidemiological studies suggest chronic and recurrent pain affects around a quarter of children, while 8% report intense and frequent pain. The long-term implications of chronic pain in childhood are uncertain. Using electronic health records (EHRs) we used both disease codes and medicines prescription records to investigate the scale of chronic pain and long-term analgesic use in children and young people (CYP), and if chronic pain and/or use of analgesic medicines at an early age is associated with substance misuse, use of prescription opioids, and poor mental health in adulthood. Methods: We conducted a cohort study using data from IQVIA Medical Research Data UK. We identified individuals aged 2-24 with exposure to either a diagnostic code indicating chronic pain (diagnosis-exposed), repeat prescription for medicines commonly used to treat pain (prescription-exposed), or both. Follow-up began at 25, and the unexposed population acted as comparators. We calculated hazard ratios (HR) for mental health and substance misuse outcomes, and rate ratios (RR) for opioid prescriptions in adulthood. Additionally, we investigated which diagnoses, if any, were over-represented in the prescription-exposed subgroup. Findings: The cohort constituted 853,625 individuals; 146,431 had one or more of the exposures of interest (diagnosis-exposed = 115,101, prescription-exposed = 20,298, both-exposed = 11,032), leaving 707,194 as comparators. Median age at index exposure was 18.7 years (IQR 14.7-22.3). On average during follow-up, the pooled exposed group had, respectively, a 31% and 17% higher risk of adverse mental health and substance misuse outcomes (adjusted HR [95% CI] of 1.31 [1.29-1.32] and 1.17 [1.11-1.24]). Exposed individuals also received prescription opioids at double the rate of unexposed individuals on average during follow-up (adjusted RR 2.01 [95% CI 1.95-2.10]). Outcomes varied between exposure subgroups, with prescription- and both-exposure tending to have worse outcomes. Unlike these two subgroups, in the diagnosis-exposed subgroup we did not detect a greater risk of substance misuse. Interpretation: Chronic pain in CYP is associated with increased prescription opioid use and adverse mental health outcomes in adulthood, as is repeat prescription for analgesic medicines, but only the latter is also associated with substance misuse in adulthood. It is essential to avoid the harms of under-treating pain in CYP while giving due consideration to the risks posed by analgesic medicines. Early recognition of chronic pain in CYP and utilising non-pharmacological management options may help minimise overprescribing, and long-term reliance on dependence-forming-drugs. Funding: AL is an NIHR funded academic clinical fellow, and was supported by funding from UCLH Charities while carrying out this work. RS and DS are part of the Advanced Pain Discovery Platform and were supported by a UKRI and Versus Arthritis grant (MR/W002566/1) as part of the Consortium Against Pain Inequality. AW was supported by the Wellcome Trust (220558/Z/20/Z).

Global trends in the consumption of benzodiazepines and Z-drugs in 67 countries and regions from 2008 to 2018: a sales data analysis.

STUDY OBJECTIVES: To investigate the trends in the consumption of benzodiazepines (BZDs) and Z-drugs at global, regional, and national levels from 2008 to 2018, across 67 countries and regions. METHODS: This cross-sectional descriptive study investigated the consumption of BZDs and Z-drugs analyzed by global pharmaceutical sales data from the IQVIA-Multinational Integrated Data Analysis System database between 2008 and 2018. Consumption was measured in defined daily dose (DDD) per 1000 inhabitants per day (DDD/TID). The global, regional, and national trends were estimated using linear mixed models. Additional analyses were conducted by grouping countries by income level. The association between consumption and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and the prevalence of different medical conditions was explored in univariable linear models. RESULTS: BZD consumption decreased annually by -1.88% (95% CI: -2.27%, -1.48%), and Z-drugs increased by + 3.28% (+2.55%, +4.01%). In 2008, the top ten countries for BZD and Z-drug consumption were all European, ranging from 63.69 to 128.24 DDD/TID. Very low levels were found in Russia, Kuwait, United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, French West Africa, and the Philippines, with DDD/TID < 1. The consumption in high-income countries was much higher than in middle-income countries. The results showed that increased consumption of BZDs and Z-drugs was statistically associated (p < 0.05) with higher GDP and increased prevalence of anxiety, self-harm, neurological disorders, chronic respiratory diseases, cardiovascular diseases, and cancers. CONCLUSIONS: Distinct differences in consumption and trends of BZDs and Z-drugs were found across different countries and regions. Further exploration is needed to understand the association and safety of the use of BZDs and Z-drugs in patients with comorbidities.

Global, regional, and national trends in opioid analgesic consumption from 2015 to 2019: a longitudinal study.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies have reported an extremely unbalanced global access to opioid analgesics. We aimed to determine contemporary trends and patterns of opioid analgesic consumption at the global, regional, and national levels. METHODS: We analysed the global pharmaceutical sales data of 66 countries or regions from the IQVIA-Multinational Integrated Data Analysis System database on opioid analgesics between 2015 and 2019. Opioid analgesic consumption was measured in milligram morphine equivalent per 1000 inhabitants per day (MME per 1000/day). The global, regional, and national trend changes were estimated using linear regressions. Factors associated with consumption patterns and trend changes were explored in multivariable linear regression analyses. FINDINGS: Overall opioid analgesic sales in the 66 countries or regions increased from 27·52 MME per 1000/day (16·63-45·54) in 2015 to 29·51 MME per 1000/day (17·85-48·79) in 2019 (difference per year 3·96%, 95% CI 0·26 to 7·80). Sales reduced yearly in North America (-12·84%; 95% CI -15·34 to -10·27) and Oceania (-2·96%; -4·20 to -1·70); increased in South America (28·69%; 7·18 to 54·53), eastern Europe (7·68%; 3·99 to 11·49), Asia (5·74%; 0·61 to 11·14), and western and central Europe (1·64%; 0·52 to 2·78); and did not differ in Africa or central America and the Caribbean. The global opioid consumption patterns were associated with country-level Human Development Index (p=0·040), cancer death rate excluding leukaemia (p=0·0072), and geographical location (p<0·0001). In 2019, opioid analgesic consumption ranged from 0·01 MME per 1000/day to 5·40 MME per 1000/day in the 17 countries and regions in the lowest consumption quartile, despite high income levels and cancer death rates in some of them. INTERPRETATION: Global opioid analgesic consumption increased from 2015 to 2019. The trend changes were distinctive across regions, which could reflect the different actions in response to known issues of opioid use and misuse. Disparities in opioid analgesic consumption remained, indicating potential inadequate access to essential pain relief in countries with low consumption. FUNDING: None.

Changes in prescribing rates of sodium-containing medications in the UK from 2009 to 2018: a cross-sectional study with interrupted time series analysis.

OBJECTIVE: Effervescent, soluble, dispersible formulations contain considerable amounts of sodium. In 2013, we previously confirmed the association between sodium-containing medications and cardiovascular risks. This study aimed to determine the changes in the prescribing pattern in clinical practice following this publication. DESIGN: A longitudinal cross-sectional study. SETTING: Primary care in the UK from 2009 to 2018. PARTICIPANTS: Prescribing information in The Health Improvement Network (THIN) and Prescription Cost Analysis (PCA) databases in the UK. OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS: Prescription rates per 10 000 inhabitants were calculated using the number of prescriptions or the number of drug-using patients over the total number of inhabitants, and the prescription rates were measured at annual intervals. Prescribing trends from 2009 to 2018 were indexed with yearly data from THIN and PCA. Interrupted time series analysis (ITSA) was conducted with monthly data in THIN. RESULTS: From the THIN database, a total of 3 651 419 prescription records from 446 233 patients were included. The prescribing rate of sodium-containing medications changed from 848.3/10 000 inhabitants in 2009 to 571.6/10 000 inhabitants in 2018. The corresponding figures from PCA data were of 631.0/10 000 inhabitants in 2009 and 423.8/10 000 inhabitants in 2018. ITSA showed the prescribing trend reduced significantly during the postpublication period (prescribing rate: slope change=-0.26; 95% CI -0.45 to -0.07; p=0.009; proportion of patients: slope change=-0.22; 95% CI -0.35 to -0.09; p<0.001), but no change in postpublication level from baseline. The prescribing rates for the non-sodium-containing standard formulations were relatively stable over the study period. The reduction in the proportion of patients using sodium-containing medications was only significant in patients over 45 years old. CONCLUSIONS: The prescribing of sodium-containing medications in the UK primary care has declined significantly during the postpublication period. Changes in the prescribing trends for sodium-containing medications varied across regions of the UK and patient age groups.

Derivation of an electronic frailty index for predicting short-term mortality in heart failure: a machine learning approach.

AIMS: Frailty may be found in heart failure patients especially in the elderly and is associated with a poor prognosis. However, assessment of frailty status is time-consuming, and the electronic frailty indices developed using health records have served as useful surrogates. We hypothesized that an electronic frailty index developed using machine learning can improve short-term mortality prediction in patients with heart failure. METHODS AND RESULTS: This was a retrospective observational study that included patients admitted to nine public hospitals for heart failure from Hong Kong between 2013 and 2017. Age, sex, variables in the modified frailty index, Deyo's Charlson co-morbidity index (≥2), neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), and prognostic nutritional index at baseline were analysed. Gradient boosting, which is a supervised sequential ensemble learning algorithm with weak prediction submodels (typically decision trees), was applied to predict mortality. Variables were ranked in the order of importance with a total score of 100 and used to build the frailty models. Comparisons were made with decision tree and multivariable logistic regression. A total of 8893 patients (median: age 81, Q1-Q3: 71-87 years old) were included, in whom 9% had 30 day mortality and 17% had 90 day mortality. Prognostic nutritional index, age, and NLR were the most important variables predicting 30 day mortality (importance score: 37.4, 32.1, and 20.5, respectively) and 90 day mortality (importance score: 35.3, 36.3, and 14.6, respectively). Gradient boosting significantly outperformed decision tree and multivariable logistic regression. The area under the curve from a five-fold cross validation was 0.90 for gradient boosting and 0.87 and 0.86 for decision tree and logistic regression in predicting 30 day mortality. For the prediction of 90 day mortality, the area under the curve was 0.92, 0.89, and 0.86 for gradient boosting, decision tree, and logistic regression, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The electronic frailty index based on co-morbidities, inflammation, and nutrition information can readily predict mortality outcomes. Their predictive performances were significantly improved by gradient boosting techniques.

Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on use of anti-dementia medications in 34 European and North American countries.

INTRODUCTION: The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the global use of anti-dementia medication is unknown. We aimed to determine the changes of anti-dementia medication use in Europe (EU) and North America (NA) during the pandemic. METHODS: This is a cross-sectional study using sales data of anti-dementia medications in 2019 and 2020 from 34 EU and NA countries. The monthly uses of anti-dementia medications from January through June in 2020 were compared to the corresponding months in 2019 for each country. RESULTS: In the pre-pandemic period of January to March 2020, 70 out of 102 (3 months x 34 countries) measurements (68.6%) of monthly sales volume showed an increase. In contrast, 76.5% and 85.3% countries showed reduced sales in April and May 2020, respectively. DISCUSSION: These findings indicate changes in use of anti-dementia medications during the pandemic. The delivery of pharmaceutical care for dementia patients may be heavily disrupted in certain countries.