Modelling the probability of meeting IUCN Red List criteria to support reassessments.

Comparative extinction risk analysis-which predicts species extinction risk from correlation with traits or geographical characteristics-has gained research attention as a promising tool to support extinction risk assessment in the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species. However, its uptake has been very limited so far, possibly because existing models only predict a species' Red List category, without indicating which Red List criteria may be triggered. This prevents such approaches to be integrated into Red List assessments. We overcome this implementation gap by developing models that predict the probability of species meeting individual Red List criteria. Using data on the world's birds, we evaluated the predictive performance of our criterion-specific models and compared it with the typical criterion-blind modelling approach. We compiled data on biological traits (e.g. range size, clutch size) and external drivers (e.g. change in canopy cover) often associated with extinction risk. For each specific criterion, we modelled the relationship between extinction risk predictors and species' Red List category under that criterion using ordinal regression models. We found criterion-specific models were better at identifying threatened species compared to a criterion-blind model (higher sensitivity), but less good at identifying not threatened species (lower specificity). As expected, different covariates were important for predicting extinction risk under different criteria. Change in annual temperature was important for criteria related to population trends, while high forest dependency was important for criteria related to restricted area of occupancy or small population size. Our criteria-specific method can support Red List assessors by producing outputs that identify species likely to meet specific criteria, and which are the most important predictors. These species can then be prioritised for re-evaluation. We expect this new approach to increase the uptake of extinction risk models in Red List assessments, bridging a long-standing research-implementation gap.

[How can we ensure the future care for children and adolescents with mental disorders?] / Wie sichern wir in Zukunft die Versorgung von Kindern und Jugendlichen mit psychischen Erkrankungen?

The interdisciplinary care of children and adolescents with mental disorders requires services from various German codes of social law and-within the medical care system-enclosing inpatient and outpatient services. The increasing demand, the increase in severity of disorders, and the general shortage of staff in social services put pressure on the structures of the interdisciplinary service networks resulting in long waiting periods, long distances, and regionally insufficient care. The medical field of child and adolescent psychiatry and psychotherapy (CAPP) plays the central and coordinating role within the cooperative care for children and adolescents with mental disorders. The CAPP is in clear need of reforms; however, these are markedly different from the reform needs of the German somatic medical care system and differ substantially from those of the (adult) psychiatry, psychotherapy, and psychosomatics disciplines. This discussion paper describes the reform requirements, the specifics of the CAPP structures, and suggestions to overcome sectors of service provision, enhance networking, intensify telemedicine, and develop evidence-based prevention and early recognition of child mental disorders.

Prevalence of Somatic Symptoms and Somatoform Disorders among a German Adolescent Psychiatric Inpatient Sample.

Somatoform disorders (SD), commencing during adolescence, represent a major problem in health care systems. While literature underlines the high presence of mental health problems among children and adolescents afflicted by somatic symptoms in the general population, limited evidence is available on the prevalence of comorbid somatic symptoms in child and adolescent psychiatric populations. We assessed the prevalence of somatic symptoms, depression, and anxiety by validated questionnaires in an inpatient cohort. We further screened for the presence of SD. Out of 434 inpatients aged 11-17 years, 371 were included and a total of n = 288 (77.6%) children and adolescents participated in the study. A total of 93.8% of the inpatients reported somatic symptoms within the past six months and still almost half (45.7%) of the sample reported at least one somatic symptom within the last seven days prior to inquiry. Relating to the past six months, 59.5% were positively screened for SD, and 44.6% reported symptoms eligible for positive screening within the past seven days prior to the survey. Somatoform symptomatology was highly associated with anxiety and depression scores, but functional decline was amenable to the number of somatic symptoms only. We provide evidence that somatic symptoms are frequent in children and adolescents being treated in child and adolescent psychiatry and are relevant to everyday functioning. Screening for somatic symptoms should be introduced in the routine diagnostic procedures for early detection of SD in the commencing stages.

Spatially-explicit land use change emissions and carbon payback times of biofuels under the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA).

The Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA) requires airlines to offset their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions above 2019 levels by either buying carbon offsets or using Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAFs). These are drop-in jet fuels made from biomass or other renewable resources that reduce GHG emissions by at least 10 % compared to kerosene and meet certain sustainability criteria. This study assesses the direct land use change (DLUC) emissions of SAF, i.e., GHG emissions from on-site land conversion from previous uses (excluding primary forests, peatlands, wetlands, and protected and biodiversity-rich areas) into alternative feedstocks, considering spatial variability in global yields and land carbon stocks. The results provide DLUC values and carbon payback times at 0.5-degree resolution for six SAF pathways, with and without irrigation and a medium-input intensity, according to CORSIA sustainability criteria. When excluding CORSIA non-compliant areas, soybean SAF shows the highest mean DLUC factor (31.9 ± 20.7 gCO2/MJ), followed by reed canary grass and maize. Jatropha SAF shows the lowest mean DLUC factor (3.6 ± 31.4 gCO2/MJ), followed by miscanthus and switchgrass. The latter feedstocks show potential for reducing GHG emissions over large areas but with relatively greater variability. Country-average DLUC values are higher than accepted ILUC ones for all pathways except for maize. To ensure the GHG benefits of CORSIA, feedstocks must be produced in areas where not only carbon stocks are relatively low but also where attainable yields are sufficiently high. The results help identify locations where the combination of these two factors may be favourable for low-DLUC SAF production. Irrigated miscanthus offers the highest SAF production potential (2.75 EJ globally) if grown on CORSIA-compliant cropland and grassland areas, accounting for ∼1/5 of the total kerosene used in 2019. Quantifying other environmental impacts of SAFs is desirable to understand sustainability trade-offs and financial constraints that may further limit production potentials.

[Current Trends in the Implantation of the Touch Prosthesis at the Thumb Carpometacarpal Joint: Results of the 1st German-Speaking User Meeting]. / Aktuelle Trends bei der Implantation der Touch-Prothese am Daumensattelgelenk: Ergebnisse des 1. deutschsprachigen Anwendertreffens.

The introduction of the new generation of thumb carpometacarpal (CMC I) joint implants for the treatment of CMC I osteoarthritis has significantly broadened the scope of hand surgery in recent years. However, the technical demands of the procedure and the many details that need to be considered require appropriate training and a learning curve. To share experiences with the Touch CMC I prosthesis, we held the first German-speaking CMC I joint prosthetics user meeting in Zurich. After some basic introductory lectures on biomechanics and the principles of prosthetic fitting of the CMC I joint, the various challenges associated with CMC I joint prosthetics were discussed in interactive expert panels. Subsequently, cases were discussed in small groups under expert guidance and the respective conclusions were discussed in plenary. The main results of this symposium are summarised in this manuscript.

An assessment of the state of conservation planning in Europe.

Expanding and managing current habitat and species protection measures is at the heart of the European biodiversity strategy. A structured approach is needed to gain insights into such issues is systematic conservation planning, which uses techniques from decision theory to identify places and actions that contribute most effectively to policy objectives given a set of constraints. Yet culturally and historically determined European landscapes make the implementation of any conservation plans challenging, requiring an analysis of synergies and trade-offs before implementation. In this work, we review the scientific literature for evidence of previous conservation planning approaches, highlighting recent advances and success stories. We find that the conceptual characteristics of European conservation planning studies likely reduced their potential in contributing to better-informed decisions. We outline pathways towards improving the uptake of decision theory and multi-criteria conservation planning at various scales, particularly highlighting the need for (a) open data and intuitive tools, (b) the integration of biodiversity-focused conservation planning with multiple objectives, (c) accounting of dynamic ecological processes and functions, and (d) better facilitation of entry-points and co-design practices of conservation planning scenarios with stakeholders. By adopting and improving these practices, European conservation planning might become more actionable and adaptable towards implementable policy outcomes. This article is part of the theme issue 'Ecological novelty and planetary stewardship: biodiversity dynamics in a transforming biosphere'.

A global clustering of terrestrial food production systems.

Food production is at the heart of global sustainability challenges, with unsustainable practices being a major driver of biodiversity loss, emissions and land degradation. The concept of foodscapes, defined as the characteristics of food production along biophysical and socio-economic gradients, could be a way addressing those challenges. By identifying homologues foodscapes classes possible interventions and leverage points for more sustainable agriculture could be identified. Here we provide a globally consistent approximation of the world's foodscape classes. We integrate global data on biophysical and socio-economic factors to identify a minimum set of emergent clusters and evaluate their characteristics, vulnerabilities and risks with regards to global change factors. Overall, we find food production globally to be highly concentrated in a few areas. Worryingly, we find particularly intensively cultivated or irrigated foodscape classes to be under considerable climatic and degradation risks. Our work can serve as baseline for global-scale zoning and gap analyses, while also revealing homologous areas for possible agricultural interventions.

Land potential assessment and trend-analysis using 2000-2021 FAPAR monthly time-series at 250 m spatial resolution.

The article presents results of using remote sensing images and machine learning to map and assess land potential based on time-series of potential Fraction of Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation (FAPAR) composites. Land potential here refers to the potential vegetation productivity in the hypothetical absence of short-term anthropogenic influence, such as intensive agriculture and urbanization. Knowledge on this ecological land potential could support the assessment of levels of land degradation as well as restoration potentials. Monthly aggregated FAPAR time-series of three percentiles (0.05, 0.50 and 0.95 probability) at 250 m spatial resolution were derived from the 8-day GLASS FAPAR V6 product for 2000-2021 and used to determine long-term trends in FAPAR, as well as to model potential FAPAR in the absence of human pressure. CCa 3 million training points sampled from 12,500 locations across the globe were overlaid with 68 bio-physical variables representing climate, terrain, landform, and vegetation cover, as well as several variables representing human pressure including: population count, cropland intensity, nightlights and a human footprint index. The training points were used in an ensemble machine learning model that stacks three base learners (extremely randomized trees, gradient descended trees and artificial neural network) using a linear regressor as meta-learner. The potential FAPAR was then projected by removing the impact of urbanization and intensive agriculture in the covariate layers. The results of strict cross-validation show that the global distribution of FAPAR can be explained with an R2 of 0.89, with the most important covariates being growing season length, forest cover indicator and annual precipitation. From this model, a global map of potential monthly FAPAR for the recent year (2021) was produced, and used to predict gaps in actual vs. potential FAPAR. The produced global maps of actual vs. potential FAPAR and long-term trends were each spatially matched with stable and transitional land cover classes. The assessment showed large negative FAPAR gaps (actual lower than potential) for classes: urban, needle-leave deciduous trees, and flooded shrub or herbaceous cover, while strong negative FAPAR trends were found for classes: urban, sparse vegetation and rainfed cropland. On the other hand, classes: irrigated or post-flooded cropland, tree cover mixed leaf type, and broad-leave deciduous showed largely positive trends. The framework allows land managers to assess potential land degradation from two aspects: as an actual declining trend in observed FAPAR and as a difference between actual and potential vegetation FAPAR.