Decline in climate resilience of European wheat.

Food security relies on the resilience of staple food crops to climatic variability and extremes, but the climate resilience of European wheat is unknown. A diversity of responses to disturbance is considered a key determinant of resilience. The capacity of a sole crop genotype to perform well under climatic variability is limited; therefore, a set of cultivars with diverse responses to weather conditions critical to crop yield is required. Here, we show a decline in the response diversity of wheat in farmers' fields in most European countries after 2002-2009 based on 101,000 cultivar yield observations. Similar responses to weather were identified in cultivar trials among central European countries and southern European countries. A response diversity hotspot appeared in the trials in Slovakia, while response diversity "deserts" were identified in Czechia and Germany and for durum wheat in southern Europe. Positive responses to abundant precipitation were lacking. This assessment suggests that current breeding programs and cultivar selection practices do not sufficiently prepare for climatic uncertainty and variability. Consequently, the demand for climate resilience of staple food crops such as wheat must be better articulated. Assessments and communication of response diversity enable collective learning across supply chains. Increased awareness could foster governance of resilience through research and breeding programs, incentives, and regulation.

Native forests but not agroforestry systems preserve arbuscular mycorrhizal fungal species richness in southern Ethiopia.

The rapid conversion of native forests to farmland in Ethiopia, the cradle of biodiversity, threatens the diversity of the arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF) pivotal to plant nutrition and carbon sequestration. This study aimed to investigate the impact of this land-use change on the AMF species composition and diversity in southern Ethiopia. Soil samples were collected from nine plots in each of three land-use types: native forest, agroforestry, and khat monocropping. The plots of the three land-use types were located adjacent to each other for each of the nine replicates. Three 10 × 10m subplots per plot were sampled. AMF spores were extracted from the soil samples, spore densities were determined, and species composition and diversity were evaluated through morphological analysis. Both spore density and species richness were statistically significantly higher in the native forest than in the agroforestry plots with no clear difference to khat, whereas the true diversity (exponential of Shannon-Wiener diversity index) did not differ among the three land-use types due to high evenness among the species in agroforestry. In total, 37 AMF morphotypes belonging to 12 genera in Glomeromycota were found, dominated by members of the genera Acaulospora and Glomus. The highest isolation frequency index (78%) was recorded for Acaulospora koskei from native forest. Consequently, the agroforestry system did not appear to aid in preserving the AMF species richness of native forests relative to perennial monocropping, such as khat cultivation. In contrast, the native forest areas can serve as in situ genetic reserves of mycorrhizal symbionts adapted to the local vegetative, edaphic, and microbial conditions.

Ethiopian agriculture has greater potential for carbon sequestration than previously estimated.

More than half of the cultivation-induced carbon loss from agricultural soils could be restored through improved management. To incentivise carbon sequestration, the potential of improved practices needs to be verified. To date, there is sparse empirical evidence of carbon sequestration through improved practices in East-Africa. Here, we show that agroforestry and restrained grazing had a greater stock of soil carbon than their bordering pair-matched controls, but the difference was less obvious with terracing. The controls were treeless cultivated fields for agroforestry, on slopes not terraced for terracing, and permanent pasture for restrained grazing, representing traditionally managed agricultural practices dominant in the case regions. The gain by the improved management depended on the carbon stocks in the control plots. Agroforestry for 6-20 years led to 11.4 Mg ha-1 and restrained grazing for 6-17 years to 9.6 Mg ha-1 greater median soil carbon stock compared with the traditional management. The empirical estimates are higher than previous process-model-based estimates and indicate that Ethiopian agriculture has greater potential to sequester carbon in soil than previously estimated.

Redistribution of nitrogen to feed the people on a safer planet.

Lack of nitrogen limits food production in poor countries while excessive nitrogen use in industrial countries has led to transgression of the planetary boundary. However, the potential of spatial redistribution of nitrogen input for food security when returning to the safe boundary has not been quantified in a robust manner. Using an emulator of a global gridded crop model ensemble, we found that redistribution of current nitrogen input to major cereals among countries can double production in the most food-insecure countries, while increasing global production of these crops by 12% with no notable regional loss or reducing the nitrogen input to the current production by one-third. Redistribution of the input within the boundary increased production by 6-8% compared to the current relative distribution, increasing production in the food-insecure countries by two-thirds. Our findings provide georeferenced guidelines for redistributing nitrogen use to enhance food security while safeguarding the planet.

Adapting to climate variability and change: experiences from cereal-based farming in the central rift and Kobo Valleys, Ethiopia.

Small-holder farmers in Ethiopia are facing several climate related hazards, in particular highly variable rainfall with severe droughts which can have devastating effects on their livelihoods. Projected changes in climate are expected to aggravate the existing challenges. This study examines farmer perceptions on current climate variability and long-term changes, current adaptive strategies, and potential barriers for successful further adaptation in two case study regions-the Central Rift Valley (CRV) and Kobo Valley. The study was based on a household questionnaire, interviews with key stakeholders, and focus group discussions. The result revealed that about 99 % of the respondents at the CRV and 96 % at the Kobo Valley perceived an increase in temperature and 94 % at CRV and 91 % at the Kobo Valley perceived a decrease in rainfall over the last 20-30 years. Inter-annual and intraseasonal rainfall variability also has increased according to the farmers. The observed climate data (1977-2009) also showed an increasing trend in temperature and high inter-annual and intra-seasonal rainfall variability. In contrast to farmers' perceptions of a decrease in rainfall totals, observed rainfall data showed no statistically significant decline. The interaction among various bio-physical and socio-economic factors, changes in rainfall intensity and reduced water available to crops due to increased hot spells, may have influenced the perception of farmers with respect to rainfall trends. In recent decades, farmers in both the CRV and Kobo have changed farming practices to adapt to perceived climate change and variability, for example, through crop and variety choice, adjustment of cropping calendar, and in situ moisture conservation. These relatively low-cost changes in farm practices were within the limited adaptation capacity of farmers, which may be insufficient to deal with the impacts of future climate change. Anticipated climate change is expected to impose new risks outside the range of current experiences. To enable farmers to adapt to these impacts critical technological, institutional, and market-access constraints need to be removed. Inconsistencies between farmers' perceptions and observed climate trends (e.g., decrease in annual rainfall) could lead to sub-optimal or counterproductive adaptations, and therefore must be removed by better communication and capacity building, for example through Climate Field Schools. Enabling strategies, which are among others targeted at agricultural inputs, credit supply, market access, and strengthening of local knowledge and information services need to become integral part of government policies to assist farmers to adapt to the impacts of current and future climate change.

Potential of energy and nutrient recovery from biodegradable waste by co-treatment in Lithuania.

Biodegradable waste quantities in Lithuania and their potential for the co-treatment in renewable energy and organic fertilizer production were investigated. Two scenarios were formulated to study the differences of the amounts of obtainable energy and fertilizers between different ways of utilization. In the first scenario, only digestion was used, and in the second scenario, materials other than straw were digested, and straw and the solid fraction of sewage sludge digestate were combusted. As a result, the amounts of heat and electricity, as well as the fertilizer amounts in the counties were obtained for both scenarios. Based on this study, the share of renewable energy in Lithuania could be doubled by the co-treatment of different biodegradable materials.

Determinants of carbon and nitrogen sequestration in multistrata agroforestry.

Agroforestry has the potential to sequester carbon (C) and nitrogen (N), thereby counteracting climate change and soil degradation. However, the lack of empirical quantitative evidence on determinants of C and N stocks hampers the management of these stocks. The aim of this study was to identify the key determinants of the C and N stocks in multistrata agroforestry. We sampled 81 plots with broad variation in 12 hypothetical determinants of C and N stocks aboveground and in two soil layers, located in three Ethiopian regions with varied multistrata agroforestry traditions and characteristics. Above-ground stocks were assessed using an allometric equation, and soil stocks were assessed with the fixed-depth method. The hypothetical determinants, i.e., the duration of agroforestry practice, the tree density, the proportion of plants with a high basal diameter, legumes and native species, the species diversity, the main crops, soil texture and pH, and altitude, were tested using linear mixed models. The duration of agroforestry, tree density, and proportion of plants with a high basal diameter (>25 cm) explained half of the variation in the soil C stock, which represented nearly three quarters or more of the total C stock. Duration and tree density explained most of the soil N stock, although legumes also influenced soil N. A high proportion of large legume trees reduced C/N, whereas a high proportion of large non-legume trees increased C/N. The aboveground C stock was explained by species diversity or the proportion of stems with a basal diameter >10 cm, depending on the main crop. There is a high potential to manage C and N stocks and their persistence, as well as soil productivity, by managing the duration of agroforestry, the density of large trees, the proportion of legumes, and the main crops in multistrata agroforestry.

Arbuscular mycorrhizal fungal diversity and species dominance in a temperate soil with long-term conventional and low-input cropping systems.

The aim of this work was to study the effect of long-term contrasting cropping systems on the indigenous arbuscular mycorrhizal fungal (AMF) spore populations in the soil of a field experiment located in western Finland. Conventional and low-input cropping systems were compared, each with two nutrient management regimes. The conventional cropping system with a non-leguminous 6-year crop rotation (barley-barley-rye-oat-potato-oat) was fertilized at either full (rotation A) or half (rotation B) the recommended rate. In the low-input cropping system, plant residues were returned to the plots either as such (rotation C) or composted (rotation D). In the rotation of this system, 1 year with barley was replaced by clover, and oat was cultivated mixed with pea. Thus, the 6-year rotation was barley-red clover-rye-oat + pea-potato-oat + pea. Each rotation was replicated three times, starting the 6-year rotation in three different years, these being designated point 1, point 2, and point 3, respectively. In the low-input system, biotite and rock phosphate were used to compensate for K and P in the harvested yield, while animal manure was applied at the start only. After 13 years, rotation points 1 and 3 were studied. Barley was the standing crop in all plots of rotation point 1, while oat and oat + pea were grown in rotations C and D, respectively. AMF spores were studied by direct extraction and by trapping, sampled on 15 June and 15 August. In addition, a special assay was designed for isolation of fast colonizing, dominating AMF. The cropping system did not significantly affect AMF spore densities, although the low-input cropping system with composted plant residues had the highest density with 44 spores on average and the conventional system with full fertilization 24 spores per 100 cm(3) soil in the autumn samples. Species richness was low in the experimental area. Five Glomus spp., one Acaulospora, and one Scutellospora were identified at the species level. In addition to these, three unidentified Glomus spp. were found. Species richness was not affected by cropping system, rotation point, or their interactions. The Shannon-Wiener index of AMF spore distributions was significantly higher in the fully fertilized than in the half-fertilized conventional plots. Glomus claroideum was the most commonly identified single species in the experimental area. It occurred in all the cropping systems and their various rotation points, representing about 30% of the total number of identified spores. In August, G. claroideum accounted for as much as 45-55% of the total numbers of spores identified in the conventional system with halved fertilization. In contrast, Glomus mosseae occurred more commonly in June (26%) than in August (9%). A bioassay using roots as inoculum for isolation and culture of dominating AMF was successfully developed and yielded only G. claroideum. This indicates a high probability of being able to more generally identify, isolate, and culture fast colonizing generalist AMF for use as inoculants in agriculture and horticulture.

Global nutrient equity for people and the planet.

The industrial world has converted inert soil and atmospheric nutrients into reactive fertilizer flows that endanger water quality, biodiversity and climate. Simultaneously, poor nations starve because of the shortage of these nutrients in agricultural soils. Here we propose a redistribution of accumulated nutrients to enhance food security while counteracting the current degradation of critical Earth system processes. Residue and sediment nutrients could be processed and transported to food-insecure regions through the opposite logistics used to ship rock phosphate across the globe. Financing through trading accumulated rights could trigger the required innovations in processing, logistics and thinking. Such a socially just 'one Earth currency' could leverage a transformation towards resilience, equity and dignity across the critical Earth system processes.

Contribution of honeybees towards the net environmental benefits of food.

Beekeeping provides honey, protein-containing drone broods and pollen, and yield-increasing pollination services. This study tested the hypothesis that beekeeping can result in net-positive impacts, if pollination services and protein-containing by-products are utilised. As a case example, Finnish beekeeping practices were used. The study was performed using two different approaches. In both approaches, the evaluated impacts were related to climate change, land use, and freshwater use, and were scaled down to represent one beehive. The first approach considered honey production with pollination services and the replacement of alternative products with co-products. The impacts were normalised to correspond with planetary boundary criteria. The second approach evaluated the impacts of the different products and services of beekeeping separately. In the first approach the honey production system moved towards a safe operational space. Freshwater use was the impact category with the largest shift towards a safe operational space (39% shift). The second approach caused a global warming potential of honey production of 0.65 kgCO2-eq kg-1, when pollen and drone broods were considered as by-products and the influence of pollination services were not included. When honey, pollen, and drone broods were considered as co-products and pollination services were included, the impacts regarding land use and climate change were net-positive. The impact of freshwater use was relatively small. For honey, the impacts on the climate change, land use, and freshwater use were -0.33 kgCO2-eq kg-1, -7.89 m2 kg-1, and 14.01 kg kg-1, respectively. The impact allocation with co-products and pollination services was conclusive. A lack of consideration for the impact reduction of pollination led to beekeeping having a negative impact on the environment. Based on these results, beekeeping enhances food security within planetary boundaries, provided that pollination services and protein-containing by-/co-products are utilised.

Food systems for resilient futures.

In this time of the pandemic, nothing is as it used to be. This change creates space for new narratives towards resilience. The resilience perspective implies preparing for shocks as well as various futures that might evolve. Thus, more sustainable food systems cannot only be built to be pandemic proof. This preparation can be facilitated by co-designing contrasting future narratives, identifying means for developing capacity to adapt to those futures and developing tools to enhance that capacity, such as demonstrated here. The capacity of food systems to adapt and transform is enhanced by dialogue, transparency and collective learning in food value chains and networks, sovereignty over resources, and built-in diversity in response to change. In market-led global food chains, supplier-buyer diversity is important, while in public-led regions with some market protection, farm and crop diversity might matter more in response to variability in weather, price and policies. During, for example, an international conflict, or the time of a pandemic, diverse food sourcing from local producer-consumer cooperatives to community-supported and urban agriculture could secure food for citizens. Assessments of critical diversity in response to shocks and volatility can help actors to tailor effective diversity to manage resilience while avoiding the long-feared trade-off between diversity and resource-use efficiency. The interdependence of humanity deserves attention, as food systems are only as resilient as their weakest actor. A truly resilient global food system implies not only preparedness for coming shocks and changes but also a foundation that makes shocks less probable and critical.

Low black carbon concentration in agricultural soils of central and northern Ethiopia.

Soil carbon (C) represents the largest terrestrial carbon stock and is key for soil productivity. Major fractions of soil C consist of organic C, carbonates and black C. The turnover rate of black C is lower than that of organic C, and black C abundance decreases the vulnerablility of soil C stock to decomposition under climate change. The aim of this study was to determine the distribution of soil C in different pools and impact of agricultural management on the abundance of different species. Soil C fractions were quantified in the topsoils (0-15cm) of 23 sites in the tropical highlands of Ethiopia. The sites in central Ethiopia represented paired plots of agroforestry and adjacent control plots where cereal crops were traditionally grown in clayey soils. In the sandy loam and loam soils of northern Ethiopia, the pairs represented restrained grazing with adjacent control plots with free grazing, and terracing with cereal-based cropping with adjacent control plots without terracing. Soil C contained in carbonates, organic matter and black C along with total C was determined. The total C median was 1.5% (range 0.3-3.6%). The median proportion of organic C was 85% (range 53-94%), 6% (0-41%) for carbonate C and 6% (4-21%) for black C. An increase was observed in the organic C and black C fractions attributable to agroforestry and restrained grazing. The very low concentration of the relatively stable black C fraction and the dominance of organic C in these Ethiopian soils suggest vulnerability to degradation and the necessity for cultivation practices maintaining the C stock.

No Evidence of Trade-Off between Farm Efficiency and Resilience: Dependence of Resource-Use Efficiency on Land-Use Diversity.

Efficiency in the use of resources stream-lined for expected conditions could lead to reduced system diversity and consequently endanger resilience. We tested the hypothesis of a trade-off between farm resource-use efficiency and land-use diversity. We applied stochastic frontier production models to assess the dependence of resource-use-efficiency on land-use diversity as illustrated by the Shannon-Weaver index. Total revenue in relation to use of capital, land and labour on the farms in Southern Finland with a size exceeding 30 ha was studied. The data were extracted from the Finnish Profitability Bookkeeping data. Our results indicate that there is either no trade-off or a negligible trade-off of no economic importance. The small dependence of resource-use efficiency on land-use diversity can be positive as well as negative. We conclude that diversification as a strategy to enhance farm resilience does not necessarily constrain resource-use efficiency.

Modelling shifts in agroclimate and crop cultivar response under climate change.

THIS PAPER AIMS: (i) to identify at national scale areas where crop yield formation is currently most prone to climate-induced stresses, (ii) to evaluate how the severity of these stresses is likely to develop in time and space, and (iii) to appraise and quantify the performance of two strategies for adapting crop cultivation to a wide range of (uncertain) climate change projections. To this end we made use of extensive climate, crop, and soil data, and of two modelling tools: N-AgriCLIM and the WOFOST crop simulation model. N-AgriCLIM was developed for the automatic generation of indicators describing basic agroclimatic conditions and was applied over the whole of Finland. WOFOST was used to simulate detailed crop responses at four representative locations. N-AgriCLIM calculations have been performed nationally for 3829 grid boxes at a 10 × 10 km resolution and for 32 climate scenarios. Ranges of projected shifts in indicator values for heat, drought and other crop-relevant stresses across the scenarios vary widely - so do the spatial patterns of change. Overall, under reference climate the most risk-prone areas for spring cereals are found in south-west Finland, shifting to south-east Finland towards the end of this century. Conditions for grass are likely to improve. WOFOST simulation results suggest that CO2 fertilization and adjusted sowing combined can lead to small yield increases of current barley cultivars under most climate scenarios on favourable soils, but not under extreme climate scenarios and poor soils. This information can be valuable for appraising alternative adaptation strategies. It facilitates the identification of regions in which climatic changes might be rapid or otherwise notable for crop production, requiring a more detailed evaluation of adaptation measures. The results also suggest that utilizing the diversity of cultivar responses seems beneficial given the high uncertainty in climate change projections.

Understanding biorefining efficiency--the case of agrifood waste.

The aim of this study was to determine biorefining efficiency according to the choices made in the entire value chain. The importance of the share of biomass volume biorefined or products substituted was investigated. Agrifood-waste-based biorefining represented the case. Anticipatory scenarios were designed for contrasting targets and compared with the current situation in two Finnish regions. Biorefining increases nutrient and energy efficiency in comparison with current use of waste. System boundaries decisively influence the relative efficiency of biorefining designs. For nutrient efficiency, full exploitation of biomass potential and anaerobic digestion increase nutrient efficiency, but the main determinant is efficient substitution for mineral fertilisers. For energy efficiency, combustion and location of biorefining close to heat demand are crucial. Regional differences in agricultural structure, the extent of the food industry and population density have a major impact on biorefining. High degrees of exploitation of feedstock potential and substitution efficiency are the keys.