Garlic consumption in relation to colorectal cancer risk and to alterations of blood bacterial DNA.

PURPOSE: Garlic consumption has been inversely associated to intestinal adenoma (IA) and colorectal cancer (CRC) risk, although evidence is not consistent. Gut microbiota has been implied in CRC pathogenesis and is also influenced by garlic consumption. We analyzed whether dietary garlic influence CRC risk and bacterial DNA in blood. METHODS: We conducted a case-control study in Italy involving 100 incident CRC cases, 100 IA and 100 healthy controls matched by center, sex and age. We used a validated food frequency questionnaire to assess dietary habits and garlic consumption. Blood bacterial DNA profile was estimated using qPCR and16S rRNA gene profiling. We derived odds ratios (ORs) and the corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of IA and CRC according to garlic consumption from multiple conditional logistic regression. We used Mann-Whitney and chi-square tests to evaluate taxa differences in abundance and prevalence. RESULTS: The OR of CRC for medium/high versus low/null garlic consumption was 0.27 (95% CI = 0.11-0.66). Differences in garlic consumption were found for selected blood bacterial taxa. Medium/high garlic consumption was associated to an increase of Corynebacteriales order, Nocardiaceae family and Rhodococcus genus, and to a decrease of Family XI and Finegoldia genus. CONCLUSIONS: The study adds data on the protective effect of dietary garlic on CRC risk. Moreover, it supports evidence of a translocation of bacterial material to bloodstream and corroborates the hypothesis of a diet-microbiota axis as a mechanism behind the role of garlic in CRC prevention.

Circulating inflammatory cytokines and risk of five cancers: a Mendelian randomization analysis.

BACKGROUND: Epidemiological and experimental evidence has linked chronic inflammation to cancer aetiology. It is unclear whether associations for specific inflammatory biomarkers are causal or due to bias. In order to examine whether altered genetically predicted concentration of circulating cytokines are associated with cancer development, we performed a two-sample Mendelian randomisation (MR) analysis. METHODS: Up to 31,112 individuals of European descent were included in genome-wide association study (GWAS) meta-analyses of 47 circulating cytokines. Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) robustly associated with the cytokines, located in or close to their coding gene (cis), were used as instrumental variables. Inverse-variance weighted MR was used as the primary analysis, and the MR assumptions were evaluated in sensitivity and colocalization analyses and a false discovery rate (FDR) correction for multiple comparisons was applied. Corresponding germline GWAS summary data for five cancer outcomes (breast, endometrial, lung, ovarian, and prostate), and their subtypes were selected from the largest cancer-specific GWASs available (cases ranging from 12,906 for endometrial to 133,384 for breast cancer). RESULTS: There was evidence of inverse associations of macrophage migration inhibitory factor with breast cancer (OR per SD = 0.88, 95% CI 0.83 to 0.94), interleukin-1 receptor antagonist with endometrial cancer (0.86, 0.80 to 0.93), interleukin-18 with lung cancer (0.87, 0.81 to 0.93), and beta-chemokine-RANTES with ovarian cancer (0.70, 0.57 to 0.85) and positive associations of monokine induced by gamma interferon with endometrial cancer (3.73, 1.86 to 7.47) and cutaneous T-cell attracting chemokine with lung cancer (1.51, 1.22 to 1.87). These associations were similar in sensitivity analyses and supported in colocalization analyses. CONCLUSIONS: Our study adds to current knowledge on the role of specific inflammatory biomarker pathways in cancer aetiology. Further validation is needed to assess the potential of these cytokines as pharmacological or lifestyle targets for cancer prevention.

Weight Change and the Onset of Cardiovascular Diseases: Emulating Trials Using Electronic Health Records.

BACKGROUND: Cross-sectional measures of body mass index (BMI) are associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD) incidence, but less is known about whether weight change affects the risk of CVD. METHODS: We estimated the effect of 2-y weight change interventions on 7-y risk of CVD (CVD death, myocardial infarction, stroke, hospitalization from coronary heart disease, and heart failure) by emulating hypothetical interventions using electronic health records. We identified 138,567 individuals with 45-69 years of age without chronic disease in England from 1998 to 2016. We performed pooled logistic regression, using inverse-probability weighting to adjust for baseline and time-varying confounders. We categorized each individual into a weight loss, maintenance, or gain group. RESULTS: Among those of normal weight, both weight loss [risk difference (RD) vs. weight maintenance = 1.5% (0.3% to 3.0%)] and gain [RD = 1.3% (0.5% to 2.2%)] were associated with increased risk for CVD compared with weight maintenance. Among overweight individuals, we observed moderately higher risk of CVD in both the weight loss [RD = 0.7% (-0.2% to 1.7%)] and the weight gain group [RD = 0.7% (-0.1% to 1.7%)], compared with maintenance. In the obese, those losing weight showed lower risk of coronary heart disease [RD = -1.4% (-2.4% to -0.6%)] but not of stroke. When we assumed that chronic disease occurred 1-3 years before the recorded date, estimates for weight loss and gain were attenuated among overweight individuals; estimates for loss were lower among obese individuals. CONCLUSION: Among individuals with obesity, the weight-loss group had a lower risk of coronary heart disease but not of stroke. Weight gain was associated with increased risk of CVD across BMI groups. See video abstract at, http://links.lww.com/EDE/B838.

An informatics consult approach for generating clinical evidence for treatment decisions.

BACKGROUND: An Informatics Consult has been proposed in which clinicians request novel evidence from large scale health data resources, tailored to the treatment of a specific patient. However, the availability of such consultations is lacking. We seek to provide an Informatics Consult for a situation where a treatment indication and contraindication coexist in the same patient, i.e., anti-coagulation use for stroke prevention in a patient with both atrial fibrillation (AF) and liver cirrhosis. METHODS: We examined four sources of evidence for the effect of warfarin on stroke risk or all-cause mortality from: (1) randomised controlled trials (RCTs), (2) meta-analysis of prior observational studies, (3) trial emulation (using population electronic health records (N = 3,854,710) and (4) genetic evidence (Mendelian randomisation). We developed prototype forms to request an Informatics Consult and return of results in electronic health record systems. RESULTS: We found 0 RCT reports and 0 trials recruiting for patients with AF and cirrhosis. We found broad concordance across the three new sources of evidence we generated. Meta-analysis of prior observational studies showed that warfarin use was associated with lower stroke risk (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.71, CI 0.39-1.29). In a target trial emulation, warfarin was associated with lower all-cause mortality (HR = 0.61, CI 0.49-0.76) and ischaemic stroke (HR = 0.27, CI 0.08-0.91). Mendelian randomisation served as a drug target validation where we found that lower levels of vitamin K1 (warfarin is a vitamin K1 antagonist) are associated with lower stroke risk. A pilot survey with an independent sample of 34 clinicians revealed that 85% of clinicians found information on prognosis useful and that 79% thought that they should have access to the Informatics Consult as a service within their healthcare systems. We identified candidate steps for automation to scale evidence generation and to accelerate the return of results. CONCLUSION: We performed a proof-of-concept Informatics Consult for evidence generation, which may inform treatment decisions in situations where there is dearth of randomised trials. Patients are surprised to know that their clinicians are currently not able to learn in clinic from data on 'patients like me'. We identify the key challenges in offering such an Informatics Consult as a service.

Prevalence and outcome of dual aortic stenosis and cardiac amyloid pathology in patients referred for transcatheter aortic valve implantation.

AIMS: Cardiac amyloidosis is common in elderly patients with aortic stenosis (AS) referred for transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI). We hypothesized that patients with dual aortic stenosis and cardiac amyloid pathology (AS-amyloid) would have different baseline characteristics, periprocedural and mortality outcomes. METHODS AND RESULTS: Patients aged ≥75 with severe AS referred for TAVI at two sites underwent blinded bone scintigraphy prior to intervention (Perugini Grade 0 negative, 1-3 increasingly positive). Baseline assessment included echocardiography, electrocardiogram (ECG), blood tests, 6-min walk test, and health questionnaire, with periprocedural complications and mortality follow-up. Two hundred patients were recruited (aged 85 ± 5 years, 50% male). AS-amyloid was found in 26 (13%): 8 Grade 1, 18 Grade 2. AS-amyloid patients were older (88 ± 5 vs. 85 ± 5 years, P = 0.001), with reduced quality of life (EQ-5D-5L 50 vs. 65, P = 0.04). Left ventricular wall thickness was higher (14 mm vs. 13 mm, P = 0.02), ECG voltages lower (Sokolow-Lyon 1.9 ± 0.7 vs. 2.5 ± 0.9 mV, P = 0.03) with lower voltage/mass ratio (0.017 vs. 0.025 mV/g/m2, P = 0.03). High-sensitivity troponin T and N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide were higher (41 vs. 21 ng/L, P < 0.001; 3702 vs. 1254 ng/L, P = 0.001). Gender, comorbidities, 6-min walk distance, AS severity, prevalence of disproportionate hypertrophy, and post-TAVI complication rates (38% vs. 35%, P = 0.82) were the same. At a median follow-up of 19 (10-27) months, there was no mortality difference (P = 0.71). Transcatheter aortic valve implantation significantly improved outcome in the overall population (P < 0.001) and in those with AS-amyloid (P = 0.03). CONCLUSIONS: AS-amyloid is common and differs from lone AS. Transcatheter aortic valve implantation significantly improved outcome in AS-amyloid, while periprocedural complications and mortality were similar to lone AS, suggesting that TAVI should not be denied to patients with AS-amyloid.

Variation in Interleukin 6 Receptor Gene Associates With Risk of Crohn's Disease and Ulcerative Colitis.

Interleukin 6 (IL6) is an inflammatory cytokine; signaling via its receptor (IL6R) is believed to contribute to development of inflammatory bowel diseases (IBD). The single nucleotide polymorphism rs2228145 in IL6R associates with increased levels of soluble IL6R (s-IL6R), as well as reduced IL6R signaling and risk of inflammatory disorders; its effects are similar to those of a therapeutic monoclonal antibody that blocks IL6R signaling. We used the effect of rs2228145 on s-IL6R level as an indirect marker to investigate whether reduced IL6R signaling associates with risk of ulcerative colitis (UC) or Crohn's disease (CD). In a genome-wide meta-analysis of 20,550 patients with CD, 17,647 patients with UC, and more than 40,000 individuals without IBD (controls), we found that rs2228145 (scaled to a 2-fold increase in s-IL6R) was associated with reduced risk of CD (odds ratio 0.876; 95% confidence interval 0.822-0.933; P = .00003) or UC (odds ratio 0.932; 95% confidence interval 0.875-0.996; P = .036). These findings indicate that therapeutics designed to block IL6R signaling might be effective in treatment of IBD.

Separate and combined associations of obesity and metabolic health with coronary heart disease: a pan-European case-cohort analysis.

Aims: The hypothesis of 'metabolically healthy obesity' implies that, in the absence of metabolic dysfunction, individuals with excess adiposity are not at greater cardiovascular risk. We tested this hypothesis in a large pan-European prospective study. Methods and results: We conducted a case-cohort analysis in the 520 000-person European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition study ('EPIC-CVD'). During a median follow-up of 12.2 years, we recorded 7637 incident coronary heart disease (CHD) cases. Using cut-offs recommended by guidelines, we defined obesity and overweight using body mass index (BMI), and metabolic dysfunction ('unhealthy') as ≥ 3 of elevated blood pressure, hypertriglyceridaemia, low HDL-cholesterol, hyperglycaemia, and elevated waist circumference. We calculated hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) within each country using Prentice-weighted Cox proportional hazard regressions, accounting for age, sex, centre, education, smoking, diet, and physical activity. Compared with metabolically healthy normal weight people (reference), HRs were 2.15 (95% CI: 1.79; 2.57) for unhealthy normal weight, 2.33 (1.97; 2.76) for unhealthy overweight, and 2.54 (2.21; 2.92) for unhealthy obese people. Compared with the reference group, HRs were 1.26 (1.14; 1.40) and 1.28 (1.03; 1.58) for metabolically healthy overweight and obese people, respectively. These results were robust to various sensitivity analyses. Conclusion: Irrespective of BMI, metabolically unhealthy individuals had higher CHD risk than their healthy counterparts. Conversely, irrespective of metabolic health, overweight and obese people had higher CHD risk than lean people. These findings challenge the concept of 'metabolically healthy obesity', encouraging population-wide strategies to tackle obesity.

Maternal height and breast cancer risk: results from a study nested within the EPIC-Greece cohort.

The positive association of adult height with breast cancer (BC) risk has been hypothesized to be partly accounted for by an association of this risk with maternal height (operating in utero to modify hormone effects). In a case-control study (271 BC patients and 791 controls) nested within the EPIC-Greece cohort, we applied mediation analysis to calculate the direct and indirect (through the woman's own height) effect of maternal height on BC risk. Per 5 cm increase in maternal height and depending on its reference value: the indirect effect odds ratio ranges from 1.02 to 1.07; the direct effect odds ratio from 1.06 to 1.11; and the total (direct and indirect effects) from 1.08 to 1.19. The effect sizes consistently increased for higher reference categories of maternal height, but did not generally reach statistical significance, possibly due to the limited sample size.

The interaction between smoking and HLA genes in multiple sclerosis: replication and refinement.

Interactions between environment and genetics may contribute to multiple sclerosis (MS) development. We investigated whether the previously observed interaction between smoking and HLA genotype in the Swedish population could be replicated, refined and extended to include other populations. We used six independent case-control studies from five different countries (Sweden, Denmark, Norway, Serbia, United States). A pooled analysis was performed for replication of previous observations (7190 cases, 8876 controls). Refined detailed analyses were carried out by combining the genetically similar populations from the Nordic studies (6265 cases, 8401 controls). In both the pooled analyses and in the combined Nordic material, interactions were observed between HLA-DRB*15 and absence of HLA-A*02 and between smoking and each of the genetic risk factors. Two way interactions were observed between each combination of the three variables, invariant over categories of the third. Further, there was also a three way interaction between the risk factors. The difference in MS risk between the extremes was considerable; smokers carrying HLA-DRB1*15 and lacking HLA-A*02 had a 13-fold increased risk compared with never smokers without these genetic risk factors (OR 12.7, 95% CI 10.8-14.9). The risk of MS associated with HLA genotypes is strongly influenced by smoking status and vice versa. Since the function of HLA molecules is to present peptide antigens to T cells, the demonstrated interactions strongly suggest that smoking alters MS risk through actions on adaptive immunity.

Genetic variation in the ADIPOQ gene, adiponectin concentrations and risk of colorectal cancer: a Mendelian Randomization analysis using data from three large cohort studies.

Higher levels of circulating adiponectin have been related to lower risk of colorectal cancer in several prospective cohort studies, but it remains unclear whether this association may be causal. We aimed to improve causal inference in a Mendelian Randomization meta-analysis using nested case-control studies of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC, 623 cases, 623 matched controls), the Health Professionals Follow-up Study (HPFS, 231 cases, 230 controls) and the Nurses' Health Study (NHS, 399 cases, 774 controls) with available data on pre-diagnostic adiponectin concentrations and selected single nucleotide polymorphisms in the ADIPOQ gene. We created an ADIPOQ allele score that explained approximately 3% of the interindividual variation in adiponectin concentrations. The ADIPOQ allele score was not associated with risk of colorectal cancer in logistic regression analyses (pooled OR per score-unit unit 0.97, 95% CI 0.91, 1.04). Genetically determined twofold higher adiponectin was not significantly associated with risk of colorectal cancer using the ADIPOQ allele score as instrumental variable (pooled OR 0.73, 95% CI 0.40, 1.34). In a summary instrumental variable analysis (based on previously published data) with higher statistical power, no association between genetically determined twofold higher adiponectin and risk of colorectal cancer was observed (0.99, 95% CI 0.93, 1.06 in women and 0.94, 95% CI 0.88, 1.01 in men). Thus, our study does not support a causal effect of circulating adiponectin on colorectal cancer risk. Due to the limited genetic determination of adiponectin, larger Mendelian Randomization studies are necessary to clarify whether adiponectin is causally related to lower risk of colorectal cancer.

Quantification of the smoking-associated cancer risk with rate advancement periods: meta-analysis of individual participant data from cohorts of the CHANCES consortium.

BACKGROUND: Smoking is the most important individual risk factor for many cancer sites but its association with breast and prostate cancer is not entirely clear. Rate advancement periods (RAPs) may enhance communication of smoking related risk to the general population. Thus, we estimated RAPs for the association of smoking exposure (smoking status, time since smoking cessation, smoking intensity, and duration) with total and site-specific (lung, breast, colorectal, prostate, gastric, head and neck, and pancreatic) cancer incidence and mortality. METHODS: This is a meta-analysis of 19 population-based prospective cohort studies with individual participant data for 897,021 European and American adults. For each cohort we calculated hazard ratios (HRs) for the association of smoking exposure with cancer outcomes using Cox regression adjusted for a common set of the most important potential confounding variables. RAPs (in years) were calculated as the ratio of the logarithms of the HRs for a given smoking exposure variable and age. Meta-analyses were employed to summarize cohort-specific HRs and RAPs. RESULTS: Overall, 140,205 subjects had a first incident cancer, and 53,164 died from cancer, during an average follow-up of 12 years. Current smoking advanced the overall risk of developing and dying from cancer by eight and ten years, respectively, compared with never smokers. The greatest advancements in cancer risk and mortality were seen for lung cancer and the least for breast cancer. Smoking cessation was statistically significantly associated with delays in the risk of cancer development and mortality compared with continued smoking. CONCLUSIONS: This investigation shows that smoking, even among older adults, considerably advances, and cessation delays, the risk of developing and dying from cancer. These findings may be helpful in more effectively communicating the harmful effects of smoking and the beneficial effect of smoking cessation.

Evaluation of a digital food photography atlas used as portion size measurement aid in dietary surveys in Greece.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate how well respondents perceive digital images of food portions commonly consumed in Greece. DESIGN: The picture series was defined on the basis of usual dietary intakes assessed in earlier large-scale studies in Greece. The evaluation included 2218 pre-weighed actual portions shown to participants, who were subsequently asked to link each portion to a food picture. Mean differences between picture numbers selected and portions actually shown were compared using the Wilcoxon paired signed-rank test. The effect of personal characteristics on participants' selections was evaluated through unpaired t tests (sex and school years) or through Tukey-Kramer pairwise comparisons (age and food groups). SETTING: Testing of participants' perception of digital food images used in the Greek national nutrition survey. SUBJECTS: Individuals (n 103, 61 % females) aged 12 years and over, selected on the basis of the target population of the Greek nutrition survey using convenience sampling. RESULTS: Individuals selected the correct or adjacent image in about 90 % of the assessments and tended to overestimate small and underestimate large quantities. Photographs of Greek traditional pies and meat-based pastry dishes led participants to perceive the amounts in the photos larger than they actually were. Adolescents were more prone to underestimating food quantities through the pictures. CONCLUSIONS: The digital food atlas appears generally suitable to be used for the estimation of average food intakes in large-scale dietary surveys in Greece. However, individuals who consistently consume only small or only large food portions may have biased perceptions in relation to others.

Eating out is different from eating at home among individuals who occasionally eat out. A cross-sectional study among middle-aged adults from eleven European countries.

Eating out has been linked to the current obesity epidemic, but the evaluation of the extent to which out of home (OH) dietary intakes are different from those at home (AH) is limited. Data collected among 8849 men and 14,277 women aged 35-64 years from the general population of eleven European countries through 24-h dietary recalls or food diaries were analysed to: (1) compare food consumption OH to those AH; (2) describe the characteristics of substantial OH eaters, defined as those who consumed 25 % or more of their total daily energy intake at OH locations. Logistic regression models were fit to identify personal characteristics associated with eating out. In both sexes, beverages, sugar, desserts, sweet and savoury bakery products were consumed more OH than AH. In some countries, men reported higher intakes of fish OH than AH. Overall, substantial OH eating was more common among men, the younger and the more educated participants, but was weakly associated with total energy intake. The substantial OH eaters reported similar dietary intakes OH and AH. Individuals who were not identified as substantial OH eaters reported consuming proportionally higher quantities of sweet and savoury bakery products, soft drinks, juices and other non-alcoholic beverages OH than AH. The OH intakes were different from the AH ones, only among individuals who reported a relatively small contribution of OH eating to their daily intakes and this may partly explain the inconsistent findings relating eating out to the current obesity epidemic.

Cognitive impairment and cancer mortality: a biological or health care explanation?

PURPOSE: To examine whether the documented association of suboptimal cognitive function with total and cardiovascular (CVD) mortality also applies to cancer mortality and probe whether the explanation for this association is biomedical or health care related. METHODS: In a subsample of 733 participants of the EPIC-Greece cohort from Athens and surrounding area, we assessed cognitive function at age 65 or older in the period 2004-2006, using the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE). Incidence of cancer, mortality from cancer and CVD, and overall mortality were ascertained through active follow-up for a median of 4 years after MMSE assessment using Cox proportional hazards models. RESULTS: A total of 86 participants died during follow-up. A 2-point decrease in MMSE score was associated with increase in overall (hazard ratio (HR) 1.26, 95 % confidence interval (CI) 1.11-1.43), CVD (HR 1.26, 95 % CI 1.02-1.56), and cancer (HR 1.32, 95 % CI 1.02-1.70) mortality. In contrast, there was no noticeable difference in cancer incidence associated with a 2-point decrease in MMSE score (HR 1.07, 95 % CI 0.79-1.45). CONCLUSIONS: Cognitive function appears to be inversely associated not only with CVD and overall, but also with cancer mortality. Although for CVD mortality there is a biomedical explanation invoking vascular mechanisms, for cancer mortality we may need to focus on socially conditioned factors, such as compromised ability to identify early signs and suboptimal compliance to treatment. Our hypothesis-generating results need to be confirmed in larger studies, as the issue is of major importance, since cognitive decline is not uncommon among the elderly.

Challenges in estimating the validity of dietary acrylamide measurements.

BACKGROUND: Acrylamide is a chemical compound present in tobacco smoke and food, classified as a probable human carcinogen and a known human neurotoxin. Acrylamide is formed in foods, typically carbohydrate-rich and protein-poor plant foods, during high-temperature cooking or other thermal processing. The objectives of this study were to compare dietary estimates of acrylamide from questionnaires (DQ) and 24-h recalls (R) with levels of acrylamide adduct (AA) in haemoglobin. METHODS: In the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study, acrylamide exposure was assessed in 510 participants from 9 European countries, randomly selected and stratified by age, sex, with equal numbers of never and current smokers. After adjusting for country, alcohol intake, smoking status, number of cigarettes and energy intake, correlation coefficients between various acrylamide measurements were computed, both at the individual and at the aggregate (centre) level. RESULTS: Individual level correlation coefficient between DQ and R measurements (r DQ,R) was 0.17, while r DQ,AA and r R,AA were 0.08 and 0.06, respectively. In never smokers, r DQ,R, r DQ,AA and r R,AA were 0.19, 0.09 and 0.02, respectively. The correlation coefficients between means of DQ, R and AA measurements at the centre level were larger (r > 0.4). CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest that estimates of total acrylamide intake based on self-reported diet correlate weakly with biomarker AA Hb levels. Possible explanations are the lack of AA levels to capture dietary acrylamide due to individual differences in the absorption and metabolism of acrylamide, and/or measurement errors in acrylamide from self-reported dietary assessments, thus limiting the possibility to validate acrylamide DQ measurements.

Prevalence of chronic pain or analgesic use in children and young people and its long-term impact on substance misuse, mental illness, and prescription opioid use: a retrospective longitudinal cohort study.

Background: Epidemiological studies suggest chronic and recurrent pain affects around a quarter of children, while 8% report intense and frequent pain. The long-term implications of chronic pain in childhood are uncertain. Using electronic health records (EHRs) we used both disease codes and medicines prescription records to investigate the scale of chronic pain and long-term analgesic use in children and young people (CYP), and if chronic pain and/or use of analgesic medicines at an early age is associated with substance misuse, use of prescription opioids, and poor mental health in adulthood. Methods: We conducted a cohort study using data from IQVIA Medical Research Data UK. We identified individuals aged 2-24 with exposure to either a diagnostic code indicating chronic pain (diagnosis-exposed), repeat prescription for medicines commonly used to treat pain (prescription-exposed), or both. Follow-up began at 25, and the unexposed population acted as comparators. We calculated hazard ratios (HR) for mental health and substance misuse outcomes, and rate ratios (RR) for opioid prescriptions in adulthood. Additionally, we investigated which diagnoses, if any, were over-represented in the prescription-exposed subgroup. Findings: The cohort constituted 853,625 individuals; 146,431 had one or more of the exposures of interest (diagnosis-exposed = 115,101, prescription-exposed = 20,298, both-exposed = 11,032), leaving 707,194 as comparators. Median age at index exposure was 18.7 years (IQR 14.7-22.3). On average during follow-up, the pooled exposed group had, respectively, a 31% and 17% higher risk of adverse mental health and substance misuse outcomes (adjusted HR [95% CI] of 1.31 [1.29-1.32] and 1.17 [1.11-1.24]). Exposed individuals also received prescription opioids at double the rate of unexposed individuals on average during follow-up (adjusted RR 2.01 [95% CI 1.95-2.10]). Outcomes varied between exposure subgroups, with prescription- and both-exposure tending to have worse outcomes. Unlike these two subgroups, in the diagnosis-exposed subgroup we did not detect a greater risk of substance misuse. Interpretation: Chronic pain in CYP is associated with increased prescription opioid use and adverse mental health outcomes in adulthood, as is repeat prescription for analgesic medicines, but only the latter is also associated with substance misuse in adulthood. It is essential to avoid the harms of under-treating pain in CYP while giving due consideration to the risks posed by analgesic medicines. Early recognition of chronic pain in CYP and utilising non-pharmacological management options may help minimise overprescribing, and long-term reliance on dependence-forming-drugs. Funding: AL is an NIHR funded academic clinical fellow, and was supported by funding from UCLH Charities while carrying out this work. RS and DS are part of the Advanced Pain Discovery Platform and were supported by a UKRI and Versus Arthritis grant (MR/W002566/1) as part of the Consortium Against Pain Inequality. AW was supported by the Wellcome Trust (220558/Z/20/Z).

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on cardiovascular disease prevention and management.

How the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has affected prevention and management of cardiovascular disease (CVD) is not fully understood. In this study, we used medication data as a proxy for CVD management using routinely collected, de-identified, individual-level data comprising 1.32 billion records of community-dispensed CVD medications from England, Scotland and Wales between April 2018 and July 2021. Here we describe monthly counts of prevalent and incident medications dispensed, as well as percentage changes compared to the previous year, for several CVD-related indications, focusing on hypertension, hypercholesterolemia and diabetes. We observed a decline in the dispensing of antihypertensive medications between March 2020 and July 2021, with 491,306 fewer individuals initiating treatment than expected. This decline was predicted to result in 13,662 additional CVD events, including 2,281 cases of myocardial infarction and 3,474 cases of stroke, should individuals remain untreated over their lifecourse. Incident use of lipid-lowering medications decreased by 16,744 patients per month during the first half of 2021 as compared to 2019. By contrast, incident use of medications to treat type 2 diabetes mellitus, other than insulin, increased by approximately 623 patients per month for the same time period. In light of these results, methods to identify and treat individuals who have missed treatment for CVD risk factors and remain undiagnosed are urgently required to avoid large numbers of excess future CVD events, an indirect impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Mediterranean diet and CHD: the Greek European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition cohort.

Adherence to the Mediterranean diet (MD) has been reported to improve CHD prognosis and to be inversely associated with CHD mortality. The aim of the present study was to investigate the association of adherence to the MD with CHD incidence and mortality in the Greek European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition cohort, a population with traditional Mediterranean roots. In a general population sample of 23,929 adult men and women with no CVD or cancer at enrolment, a validated FFQ was interviewer-administered, sociodemographic, physical activity and other characteristics were recorded, and arterial blood pressure and anthropometric characteristics were measured. In a median period of 10 years, 636 incident CHD cases and 240 CHD deaths were recorded. Associations of adherence to the MD, operationalised through a nine-component score (0, poor; 9, excellent), with CHD incidence and mortality were evaluated through Cox regression controlling for potentially confounding variables. A two-point increase in the MD score was associated with lower CHD mortality by 25 % (95 % CI 0.57, 0.98) among women and 19 % (95 % CI 0.67, 0.99) among men. The association of adherence to the MD with CHD incidence was again inverse, but weaker (hazard ratios 0.85 (95 % CI 0.71, 1.02) among women and 0.98 (95 % CI 0.87, 1.10) among men). With respect to score components, only meat among men (positively) and fruits and nuts among women (inversely) were associated with both the incidence of and mortality from CHD. The MD, as an integral entity, is inversely associated with CHD incidence and, particularly, mortality.