Challenges of Incorporating Life Cycle Drug Pricing in Cost-Effectiveness Models: A Review of Methods and Modeling Suggestions.

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to conduct a review of existing methods used to incorporate life cycle drug pricing (LCDP) in cost-effectiveness analyses (CEAs), identify common methodological challenges, and suggest modeling approaches for prospectively implementing LCDP in CEA. METHODS: Two complementary searches were conducted in PubMed, combined with hand searching and reference mining, to identify English language full-text articles that explored (1) how drug prices change over time and (2) methods used to apply dynamic pricing in cost-effectiveness models (CEMs). Relevant articles were reviewed, and authors discussed the common methodological practices used in the literature and their associated challenges on prospectively implementing LCDP in CEMs. For each key challenge identified, we provide modeling suggestions to address the issue. RESULTS: We screened 1200 studies based on title and abstract; 117 were reviewed for eligibility, and 47 individual studies were included across both searches. Variations in prices over a product's life cycle are complex and multifactorial, and models applying LCDP in CEA varied in their methodology. We identified 4 key challenges to modeling LCDP in CEA, including how to model price trends before and after loss of exclusivity, how to capture the effect of price changes on future patient cohorts, and how to report results. CONCLUSION: Accurately quantifying the impact of LCDP requires careful consideration of multiple aspects pertaining to both the evolution of drug prices and how to reflect these in CEA. Although uncertainties remain, our findings can aid implementation and evaluation of LCDP in economic evaluations.

Cost-effectiveness of transcatheter aortic valve implantation in patients with severe symptomatic aortic stenosis of intermediate surgical risk in Singapore.

OBJECTIVE: The objective was to assess the cost-effectiveness of transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) in patients with severe aortic stenosis with intermediate surgical risk in Singapore. METHODS: A de novo Markov model with three health states - stroke with long-term sequelae, no stroke, and death - was developed and simulated using Monte Carlo simulations with 10,000 iterations over a five-year time horizon from the Singapore healthcare system perspective. A 3% annual discount rate for costs and outcomes and monthly cycle lengths were used. By applying the longest available published clinical evidence, simulated patients received either TAVI or surgical aortic valve replacement (SAVR) and were at risk of adverse events (AEs) such as moderate-to-severe paravalvular aortic regurgitation (PAR). RESULTS: When five-year PARTNER 2A data was applied, base-case analyses showed that the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) for TAVI compared to SAVR was US$315,760 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained. The high ICER was due to high incremental implantation and procedure costs of TAVI compared to SAVR, and marginal improvement of 0.10 QALYs as simulated mortality of TAVI exceeded SAVR at 3.75 years post-implantation. One-way sensitivity analysis showed that the ICERs were most sensitive to cost of PAR, utility values of SAVR patients, and cost of TAVI and SAVR implants and procedures. When disutilities for AEs were additionally applied, the ICER decreased to US$300,070 per QALY gained. TAVI was dominated by SAVR when the time horizon increased to 20 years. Clinical outcomes projected from one-year PARTNER S3i data further reduced the ICER to US$86,337 per QALY gained for TAVI, assuming early all-cause mortality benefits from TAVI continued to persist. This assumption was undermined when longer term data showed that TAVI's early mortality benefits diminished at five years. LIMITATIONS AND CONCLUSION: TAVI is unlikely to be cost-effective in intermediate surgical-risk patients compared to SAVR in Singapore.

The Extrapolation Performance of Survival Models for Data With a Cure Fraction: A Simulation Study.

OBJECTIVES: Curative treatments can result in complex hazard functions. The use of standard survival models may result in poor extrapolations. Several models for data which may have a cure fraction are available, but comparisons of their extrapolation performance are lacking. A simulation study was performed to assess the performance of models with and without a cure fraction when fit to data with a cure fraction. METHODS: Data were simulated from a Weibull cure model, with 9 scenarios corresponding to different lengths of follow-up and sample sizes. Cure and noncure versions of standard parametric, Royston-Parmar, and dynamic survival models were considered along with noncure fractional polynomial and generalized additive models. The mean-squared error and bias in estimates of the hazard function were estimated. RESULTS: With the shortest follow-up, none of the cure models provided good extrapolations. Performance improved with increasing follow-up, except for the misspecified standard parametric cure model (lognormal). The performance of the flexible cure models was similar to that of the correctly specified cure model. Accurate estimates of the cured fraction were not necessary for accurate hazard estimates. Models without a cure fraction provided markedly worse extrapolations. CONCLUSIONS: For curative treatments, failure to model the cured fraction can lead to very poor extrapolations. Cure models provide improved extrapolations, but with immature data there may be insufficient evidence to choose between cure and noncure models, emphasizing the importance of clinical knowledge for model choice. Dynamic cure fraction models were robust to model misspecification, but standard parametric cure models were not.

Comparing current and emerging practice models for the extrapolation of survival data: a simulation study and case-study.

BACKGROUND: Estimates of future survival can be a key evidence source when deciding if a medical treatment should be funded. Current practice is to use standard parametric models for generating extrapolations. Several emerging, more flexible, survival models are available which can provide improved within-sample fit. This study aimed to assess if these emerging practice models also provided improved extrapolations. METHODS: Both a simulation study and a case-study were used to assess the goodness of fit of five classes of survival model. These were: current practice models, Royston Parmar models (RPMs), Fractional polynomials (FPs), Generalised additive models (GAMs), and Dynamic survival models (DSMs). The simulation study used a mixture-Weibull model as the data-generating mechanism with varying lengths of follow-up and sample sizes. The case-study was long-term follow-up of a prostate cancer trial. For both studies, models were fit to an early data-cut of the data, and extrapolations compared to the known long-term follow-up. RESULTS: The emerging practice models provided better within-sample fit than current practice models. For data-rich simulation scenarios (large sample sizes or long follow-up), the GAMs and DSMs provided improved extrapolations compared with current practice. Extrapolations from FPs were always very poor whilst those from RPMs were similar to current practice. With short follow-up all the models struggled to provide useful extrapolations. In the case-study all the models provided very similar estimates, but extrapolations were all poor as no model was able to capture a turning-point during the extrapolated period. CONCLUSIONS: Good within-sample fit does not guarantee good extrapolation performance. Both GAMs and DSMs may be considered as candidate extrapolation models in addition to current practice. Further research into when these flexible models are most useful, and the role of external evidence to improve extrapolations is required.

External Validation of a Colorectal Cancer Model Against Screening Trial Long-Term Follow-Up Data.

BACKGROUND: The University of Sheffield School of Health and Related Research (ScHARR) Bowel Cancer Screening Model has been used previously to make decisions about colorectal cancer screening strategies in England. OBJECTIVES: The objective of this study was to perform an external validation of the ScHARR model against long-term follow-up data about colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence and mortality reductions due to screening, from the Nottingham trial of guaiac faecal occult blood testing for CRC, and the UK Flexible Sigmoidoscopy Screening Trial. METHODS: The ScHARR model was adapted prior to validation to reflect the setting of each trial in terms of population characteristics, details of screening and surveillance programs, uptake of screening, and further investigations and study follow-up. The impact of using current versus historical CRC incidence and mortality data in the validation was also examined by carrying out a series of analyses in which historical data from different years was included in the model. RESULTS: The ScHARR model was able to predict CRC incidence and mortality rate/hazard ratios from both trials to well within the 95% confidence intervals in the observed data. While it was less accurate in predicting absolute incidence and mortality rates, modeling historical incidence and mortality data enabled these predictions to be improved considerably. CONCLUSION: The ScHARR model is able to replicate the long-term relative benefit from screening observed in 2 large-scale UK-based screening trials and can therefore be considered to be an appropriate tool to facilitate decision making around the English bowel cancer screening program.

Factors associated with completion of bowel cancer screening and the potential effects of simplifying the screening test algorithm.

BACKGROUND: The primary colorectal cancer screening test in England is a guaiac faecal occult blood test (gFOBt). The NHS Bowel Cancer Screening Programme (BCSP) interprets tests on six samples on up to three test kits to determine a definitive positive or negative result. However, the test algorithm fails to achieve a definitive result for a significant number of participants because they do not comply with the programme requirements. This study identifies factors associated with failed compliance and modifications to the screening algorithm that will improve the clinical effectiveness of the screening programme. METHODS: The BCSP Southern Hub data for screening episodes started in 2006-2012 were analysed for participants aged 60-69 years. The variables included age, sex, level of deprivation, gFOBt results and clinical outcome. RESULTS: The data set included 1,409,335 screening episodes; 95.08% of participants had a definitively normal result on kit 1 (no positive spots). Among participants asked to complete a second or third gFOBt, 5.10% and 4.65%, respectively, failed to return a valid kit. Among participants referred for follow up, 13.80% did not comply. Older age was associated with compliance at repeat testing, but non-compliance at follow up. Increasing levels of deprivation were associated with non-compliance at repeat testing and follow up. Modelling a reduction in the threshold for immediate referral led to a small increase in completion of the screening pathway. CONCLUSIONS: Reducing the number of positive spots required on the first gFOBt kit for referral for follow-up and targeted measures to improve compliance with follow-up may improve completion of the screening pathway.

Cefiderocol for treating severe aerobic Gram-negative bacterial infections: technology evaluation to inform a novel subscription-style payment model.

Background: To limit the use of antimicrobials without disincentivising the development of novel antimicrobials, there is interest in establishing innovative models that fund antimicrobials based on an evaluation of their value as opposed to the volumes used. The aim of this project was to evaluate the population-level health benefit of cefiderocol in the NHS in England, for the treatment of severe aerobic Gram-negative bacterial infections when used within its licensed indications. The results were used to inform the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence guidance in support of commercial discussions regarding contract value between the manufacturer and NHS England. Methods: The health benefit of cefiderocol was first derived for a series of high-value clinical scenarios. These represented uses that were expected to have a significant impact on patients' mortality risks and health-related quality of life. The clinical effectiveness of cefiderocol relative to its comparators was estimated by synthesising evidence on susceptibility of the pathogens of interest to the antimicrobials in a network meta-analysis. Patient-level costs and health outcomes of cefiderocol under various usage scenarios compared with alternative management strategies were quantified using decision modelling. Results were reported as incremental net health effects expressed in quality-adjusted life-years, which were scaled to 20-year population values using infection number forecasts based on data from Public Health England. The outcomes estimated for the high-value clinical scenarios were extrapolated to other expected uses for cefiderocol. Results: Among Enterobacterales isolates with the metallo-beta-lactamase resistance mechanism, the base-case network meta-analysis found that cefiderocol was associated with a lower susceptibility relative to colistin (odds ratio 0.32, 95% credible intervals 0.04 to 2.47), but the result was not statistically significant. The other treatments were also associated with lower susceptibility than colistin, but the results were not statistically significant. In the metallo-beta-lactamase Pseudomonas aeruginosa base-case network meta-analysis, cefiderocol was associated with a lower susceptibility relative to colistin (odds ratio 0.44, 95% credible intervals 0.03 to 3.94), but the result was not statistically significant. The other treatments were associated with no susceptibility. In the base case, patient-level benefit of cefiderocol was between 0.02 and 0.15 quality-adjusted life-years, depending on the site of infection, the pathogen and the usage scenario. There was a high degree of uncertainty surrounding the benefits of cefiderocol across all subgroups. There was substantial uncertainty in the number of infections that are suitable for treatment with cefiderocol, so population-level results are presented for a range of scenarios for the current infection numbers, the expected increases in infections over time and rates of emergence of resistance. The population-level benefits varied substantially across the base-case scenarios, from 896 to 3559 quality-adjusted life-years over 20 years. Conclusion: This work has provided quantitative estimates of the value of cefiderocol within its areas of expected usage within the NHS. Limitations: Given existing evidence, the estimates of the value of cefiderocol are highly uncertain. Future work: Future evaluations of antimicrobials would benefit from improvements to NHS data linkages; research to support appropriate synthesis of susceptibility studies; and application of routine data and decision modelling to assess enablement value. Study registration: No registration of this study was undertaken. Funding: This award was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment Policy Research Programme (NIHR award ref: NIHR135591), conducted through the Policy Research Unit in Economic Methods of Evaluation in Health and Social Care Interventions, PR-PRU-1217-20401, and is published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 28, No. 28. See the NIHR Funding and Awards website for further award information.

This project tested new methods for estimating the value to the NHS of an antimicrobial, cefiderocol, so its manufacturer could be paid fairly even if very little drug is used in order to reduce the risk of bacteria becoming resistant to the product. Clinicians said that the greatest benefit of cefiderocol is when used for complicated urinary tract infections and pneumonia acquired within hospitals caused by two types of bacteria (called Enterobacterales and Pseudomonas aeruginosa), with a resistance mechanism called metallo-beta-lactamase. Because there were no relevant clinical trial data, we estimated how effective cefiderocol and alternative treatments were by doing a systematic literature review of studies that grew bacteria from infections in the laboratory and tested the drugs on them. We linked this to data estimating the long-term health and survival of patients. Some evidence was obtained by asking clinicians detailed questions about what they thought the effects would be based on their experience and the available evidence. We included the side effects of the alternative treatments, some of which can cause kidney damage. We estimated how many infections there would be in the UK, whether they would increase over time and how resistance to treatments may change over time. Clinicians told us that they would also use cefiderocol to treat intra-abdominal and bloodstream infections, and some infections caused by another bacteria called Stenotrophomonas. We estimated how many of these infections there would be, and assumed the same health benefits as for other types of infections. The total value to the NHS was calculated using these estimates. We also considered whether we had missed any additional elements of value. We estimated that the value to the NHS was £18­71 million over 20 years. This reflects the maximum the NHS could pay for use of cefiderocol if the health lost as a result of making these payments rather than funding other NHS services is not to exceed the health benefits of using this antimicrobial. However, these estimates are uncertain due to limitations with the evidence used to produce them and assumptions that had to be made.

Predicting the prevalence of chronic kidney disease in the English population: a cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: There is concern that not all cases of chronic kidney disease (CKD) are known to general practitioners, leading to an underestimate of its true prevalence. We carried out this study to develop a model to predict the prevalence of CKD using a large English primary care dataset which includes previously undiagnosed cases of CKD. METHODS: Cross-sectional analysis of data from the Quality Improvement in CKD trial, a representative sample of 743 935 adults in England aged 18 and over. We created multivariable logistic regression models to identify important predictive factors. RESULTS: A prevalence of 6.76% was recorded in our sample, compared to a national prevalence of 4.3%. Increasing age, female gender and cardiovascular disease were associated with a significantly increased prevalence of CKD (p < 0.001 for all). Age had a complex association with CKD. Cardiovascular disease was a stronger predictive factor in younger than in older patients. For example, hypertension has an odds ratio of 2.02 amongst patients above average and an odds ratio of 3.91 amongst patients below average age. CONCLUSION: In England many cases of CKD remain undiagnosed. It is possible to use the results of this study to identify areas with high levels of undiagnosed CKD and groups at particular risk of having CKD. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN: ISRCTN56023731. Note that this study reports the results of a cross-sectional analysis of data from this trial.

Association between body mass index and health-related quality of life, and the impact of self-reported long-term conditions - cross-sectional study from the south Yorkshire cohort dataset.

BACKGROUND: We sought to quantify the relationship between body mass index (BMI) and health-related quality (HRQoL) of life, as measured by the EQ-5D, whilst controlling for potential confounders. In addition, we hypothesised that certain long-term conditions (LTCs), for which being overweight or obese is a known risk factor, may mediate the association between BMI and HRQoL. Hence the aim of our study was to explore the association between BMI and HRQoL, first controlling for confounders and then exploring the potential impact of LTCs. METHODS: We used baseline data from the South Yorkshire Cohort, a cross-sectional observational study which uses a cohort multiple randomised controlled trial design. For each EQ-5D health dimension we used logistic regression to model the probability of responding as having a problem for each of the five health dimensions. All continuous variables were modelled using fractional polynomials. We examined the impact on the coefficients for BMI of removing LTCs from our model. We considered the self-reported LTCs: diabetes, heart disease, stroke, cancer, osteoarthritis, breathing problems and high blood pressure. RESULTS: The dataset used in our analysis had data for 19,460 individuals, who had a mean EQ-5D score of 0.81 and a mean BMI of 26.3 kg/m². For each dimension, BMI and all of the LTCs were significant predictors. For overweight or obese individuals (BMI ≥ 25 kg/m²), each unit increase in BMI was associated with approximately a 3% increase in the odds of reporting a problem for the anxiety/depression dimension, a 8% increase for the mobility dimension, and approximately 6% for the remaining dimension s. Diabetes, heart disease, osteoarthritis and high blood pressure were identified as being potentially mediating variables for all of the dimensions. CONCLUSIONS: Compared to those of a normal weight (18.5 < BMI < 25 kg/m²), overweight and obese individuals had a reduced HRQoL, with each unit increase in BMI associated with approximately a 6% increase in the odds of reporting a problem on any of the EQ-5D health dimensions. There was evidence to suggest that diabetes, heart disease, osteoarthritis and high blood pressure may mediate the association between being overweight and HRQoL.

Dynamic and Flexible Survival Models for Extrapolation of Relative Survival: A Case Study and Simulation Study.

BACKGROUND: Extrapolation of survival data is a key task in health technology assessments (HTAs), which may be improved by incorporating general population mortality data via relative survival models. Dynamic survival models are a promising method for extrapolation that may be expanded to dynamic relative survival models (DRSMs), a novel development presented here. There are currently neither examples of dynamic models in HTA nor comparisons of DRSMs with other relative survival models when used for survival extrapolation. METHODS: An existing appraisal, for which there had been disagreement over the approach to survival extrapolation, was chosen and the health economic model recreated. The sensitivity of estimates of cost-effectiveness to different model choices (standard survival models, DSMs, and DRSMs) and specifications was examined. The appraisal informed a simulation study to evaluate DRSMs with relative survival models based on both standard and spline-based (flexible) models. RESULTS: Dynamic models provided insight into the behavior of the trend in the hazard function and how it may vary during the extrapolated phase. DRSMs led to extrapolations with improved plausibility for which model choice may be based on clinical input. In the simulation study, the flexible and dynamic relative survival models performed similarly and provided highly variable extrapolations. LIMITATIONS: Further experience with these models is required to identify settings when they are most useful, and they provide sufficiently accurate extrapolations. CONCLUSIONS: Dynamic models provide a flexible and attractive method for extrapolating survival data and facilitate the use of clinical input for model choice. Flexible and dynamic relative survival models make few structural assumptions and can improve extrapolation plausibility, but further research is required into methods for reducing the variability in extrapolations.

The Incidence and Costs of Adverse Events Associated with Antidepressants: Results from a Systematic Review, Network Meta-Analysis and Multi-Country Economic Model.

Purpose: There is variation in the safety profile of antidepressants. Rates of adverse events along with the costs of treating them can be an important factor influencing the choice of depression treatment. This study sought to estimate the comparative safety of commonly prescribed antidepressants, and how the costs of treating these varied across European countries. Methods: A systematic literature review was conducted (in Medline, Embase, PsycINFO and CENTRAL) to identify placebo-controlled trials reporting rates of at least one type of sexual dysfunction, weight change, insomnia, anxiety, and anhedonia. Eight antidepressants were considered: duloxetine, escitalopram, fluoxetine, paroxetine, sertraline, trazodone, venlafaxine, and vortioxetine. This evidence was synthesised via Bayesian random effects network meta-analyses to provide comparative estimates of safety. A systematic search identified country-specific costs of managing depression and adverse events of antidepressants. Evidence on costs and safety was combined in an economic model to provide country-specific costs for Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Romania, Slovakia, Portugal, and Poland. Results: Trazodone had the lowest rates of both insomnia (odds ratio 0.66, 95% credible interval 0.31 to 1.38) and anxiety (0.13, <0.01 to 1.80). All antidepressants were associated with increased rates of sexual dysfunction relative to placebo. Weight change was largest for fluoxetine (kg change -1.01, -1.40 to -0.60) and sertraline (-1.00, -1.36 to -0.65), although heterogeneity was extreme for this outcome. No evidence was identified for anhedonia. Total costs were lowest for trazodone in all nine of the countries evaluated. This was primarily due to reduced rates of treatment discontinuation. Conclusion: Trazodone generally had the best safety profile of the antidepressants evaluated. This led to healthcare costs being lowest for trazodone in all nine European countries, emphasising the importance of considering rates of adverse events when choosing a pharmacological treatment to treat symptoms of depression.

Schizophrenia Treatment with Second-Generation Antipsychotics: A Multi-Country Comparison of the Costs of Cardiovascular and Metabolic Adverse Events and Weight Gain.

PURPOSE: Cardiovascular and metabolic adverse events are costly to treat, and their incidence is increased amongst people with schizophrenia, with different rates observed for second-generation antipsychotics. To inform treatment choice, this study sought to estimate the lifetime costs associated with antipsychotic choice, and how these costs varied across European countries. METHODS: Systematic searches were conducted to identify evidence on effectiveness and costs. A Markov model was developed to assess the costs of ten antipsychotics: aripiprazole, brexpiprazole, cariprazine, lumateperone, lurasidone, olanzapine, paliperidone, quetiapine, risperidone and ziprasidone. Costs were obtained for seven countries: Italy, Hungary, France, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden and the UK. The costs considered were adverse events (including diabetes, myocardial infarction, stroke and weight gain), drug costs, relapse, treatment discontinuation and schizophrenia management. Two adult populations were modelled; initiating either acute or maintenance treatment, with a lifetime horizon for both. RESULTS: Lurasidone was associated with the lowest lifetime costs amongst patients initiating acute treatment compared to all other atypical antipsychotics considered. The second lowest costs were for ziprasidone. These results were observed for all seven countries. The main drivers of cost differences were rates of diabetes and cardiovascular diseases, which were lowest for lurasidone, followed by ziprasidone then lumateperone. Costs for managing weight gain were lowest for lurasidone and ziprasidone. Similar results were observed for patients initiating maintenance treatment. CONCLUSION: Diabetes and cardiovascular events are large drivers of lifetime costs for people with schizophrenia. Lurasidone is predicted to have the lowest rates of these adverse events, and so the lowest costs amongst patients initiating acute treatment in seven European countries compared to nine other antipsychotics. Future research should investigate the individual costs of relapse management, including differences in the costs and proportions of hospitalizations.

Generalized Linear Models for Flexible Parametric Modeling of the Hazard Function.

Background. Parametric modeling of survival data is important, and reimbursement decisions may depend on the selected distribution. Accurate predictions require sufficiently flexible models to describe adequately the temporal evolution of the hazard function. A rich class of models is available among the framework of generalized linear models (GLMs) and its extensions, but these models are rarely applied to survival data. This article describes the theoretical properties of these more flexible models and compares their performance to standard survival models in a reproducible case study. Methods. We describe how survival data may be analyzed with GLMs and their extensions: fractional polynomials, spline models, generalized additive models, generalized linear mixed (frailty) models, and dynamic survival models. For each, we provide a comparison of the strengths and limitations of these approaches. For the case study, we compare within-sample fit, the plausibility of extrapolations, and extrapolation performance based on data splitting. Results. Viewing standard survival models as GLMs shows that many impose a restrictive assumption of linearity. For the case study, GLMs provided better within-sample fit and more plausible extrapolations. However, they did not improve extrapolation performance. We also provide guidance to aid in choosing between the different approaches based on GLMs and their extensions. Conclusions. The use of GLMs for parametric survival analysis can outperform standard parametric survival models, although the improvements were modest in our case study. This approach is currently seldom used. We provide guidance on both implementing these models and choosing between them. The reproducible case study will help to increase uptake of these models.

The association between long-term conditions and uptake of population-based screening for colorectal cancer: results from two English cohort studies.

INTRODUCTION: Uptake of screening for colorectal cancer (CRC) can reduce mortality, and population-based screening is offered in England. To date, there is little evidence on the association between having a long-term condition (LTC) and CRC screening uptake. The objective of this study was to examine the association between having an LTC and uptake of CRC screening in England with the guaiac fecal occult blood test, with a particular focus on common mental disorders. METHODS: The study was a preregistered secondary analysis of two cohorts: first, a linked data set between the regional Yorkshire Health Study (YHS) and the National Health Service National Bowel Cancer Screening Program (BCSP, years 2006-2014); second, the national English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA, years 2014-2015). Individuals eligible for BCSP screening who participated in either the YHS (7,142) or ELSA Wave 7 (4,099) were included. Study registration: ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT02503969. RESULTS: In both the cohorts, diabetes was associated with lower uptake (YHS odds ratio [OR] for non-uptake 1.35, 95% CI 1.03-1.78; ELSA 1.33, 1.03-1.72) and osteoarthritis was associated with increased uptake (YHS 0.75, 0.57-0.99; ELSA 0.76, 0.62-0.93). After controlling for broader determinants of health, there was no evidence of significantly different uptake for individuals with common mental disorders. CONCLUSION: Two large independent cohorts provided evidence that uptake of CRC screening is lower among individuals with diabetes and higher among individuals with osteoarthritis. Further work should compare barriers and facilitators to screening among individuals with either of these conditions. This study also demonstrates the benefits of data linkage for improving clinical decision-making.

Cost-effectiveness of superficial femoral artery endovascular interventions in the UK and Germany: a modelling study.

OBJECTIVES: To assess the lifetime costs and cost-effectiveness of 5 endovascular interventions to treat superficial femoral arterial disease. DESIGN: A model-based health economic evaluation. An existing decision analytical model was used, with updated effectiveness data taken from the literature, and updated costs based on purchasing prices. SETTING: UK and German healthcare perspectives were considered. PARTICIPANTS: Patients with intermittent claudication of the femoropopliteal arteries eligible for endovascular treatment. METHODS: UK and German healthcare perspectives were considered, as were different strategies for re-intervention. INTERVENTIONS: Percutaneous transluminal angioplasty (PTA) with bail-out bare metal stenting (assumed to represent the existing standard of care, and 4 alternatives: primary bare metal stents, drug-eluting stents, drug-eluting balloons (DEBs) and biomimetic stents). PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURES: The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio between 2 treatments, defined as the incremental costs divided by the incremental quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). RESULTS: Use of a biomimetic stent, BioMimics 3D, was always estimated to dominate the other interventions, having lower lifetime costs and greater effectiveness, as measured by QALYs. Of the remaining interventions, DEBs were always the most effective, and PTA the least effective. There was uncertainty in the cost-effectiveness results, with key drivers being the costs and effectiveness of the biomimetic stent along with the costs of DEBs. CONCLUSIONS: All 4 of the alternatives to PTA were more effective, with the biomimetic stent being the most cost-effective. As there was uncertainty in the results, and all of the interventions have different mechanisms of action, all 4 may be considered to be alternatives to PTA.

Cabazitaxel for Hormone-Relapsed Metastatic Prostate Cancer Previously Treated With a Docetaxel-Containing Regimen: An Evidence Review Group Perspective of a NICE Single Technology Appraisal.

As part of its single technology appraisal (STA) process, the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) invited the company that manufactures cabazitaxel (Jevtana®, Sanofi, UK) to submit evidence for the clinical and cost effectiveness of cabazitaxel for treatment of patients with metastatic hormone-relapsed prostate cancer (mHRPC) previously treated with a docetaxel-containing regimen. The School of Health and Related Research Technology Appraisal Group at the University of Sheffield was commissioned to act as the independent Evidence Review Group (ERG). The ERG produced a critical review of the evidence for the clinical and cost effectiveness of the technology based upon the company's submission to NICE. Clinical evidence for cabazitaxel was derived from a multinational randomised open-label phase III trial (TROPIC) of cabazitaxel plus prednisone or prednisolone compared with mitoxantrone plus prednisone or prednisolone, which was assumed to represent best supportive care. The NICE final scope identified a further three comparators: abiraterone in combination with prednisone or prednisolone; enzalutamide; and radium-223 dichloride for the subgroup of people with bone metastasis only (no visceral metastasis). The company did not consider radium-223 dichloride to be a relevant comparator. Neither abiraterone nor enzalutamide has been directly compared in a trial with cabazitaxel. Instead, clinical evidence was synthesised within a network meta-analysis (NMA). Results from TROPIC showed that cabazitaxel was associated with a statistically significant improvement in both overall survival and progression-free survival compared with mitoxantrone. Results from a random-effects NMA, as conducted by the company and updated by the ERG, indicated that there was no statistically significant difference between the three active treatments for both overall survival and progression-free survival. Utility data were not collected as part of the TROPIC trial, and were instead taken from the company's UK early access programme. Evidence on resource use came from the TROPIC trial, supplemented by both expert clinical opinion and a UK clinical audit. List prices were used for mitoxantrone, abiraterone and enzalutamide as directed by NICE, although commercial in-confidence patient-access schemes (PASs) are in place for abiraterone and enzalutamide. The confidential PAS was used for cabazitaxel. Sequential use of the advanced hormonal therapies (abiraterone and enzalutamide) does not usually occur in clinical practice in the UK. Hence, cabazitaxel could be used within two pathways of care: either when an advanced hormonal therapy was used pre-docetaxel, or when one was used post-docetaxel. The company believed that the former pathway was more likely to represent standard National Health Service (NHS) practice, and so their main comparison was between cabazitaxel and mitoxantrone, with effectiveness data from the TROPIC trial. Results of the company's updated cost-effectiveness analysis estimated a probabilistic incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of £45,982 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained, which the committee considered to be the most plausible value for this comparison. Cabazitaxel was estimated to be both cheaper and more effective than abiraterone. Cabazitaxel was estimated to be cheaper but less effective than enzalutamide, resulting in an ICER of £212,038 per QALY gained for enzalutamide compared with cabazitaxel. The ERG noted that radium-223 is a valid comparator (for the indicated sub-group), and that it may be used in either of the two care pathways. Hence, its exclusion leads to uncertainty in the cost-effectiveness results. In addition, the company assumed that there would be no drug wastage when cabazitaxel was used, with cost-effectiveness results being sensitive to this assumption: modelling drug wastage increased the ICER comparing cabazitaxel with mitoxantrone to over £55,000 per QALY gained. The ERG updated the company's NMA and used a random effects model to perform a fully incremental analysis between cabazitaxel, abiraterone, enzalutamide and best supportive care using PASs for abiraterone and enzalutamide. Results showed that both cabazitaxel and abiraterone were extendedly dominated by the combination of best supportive care and enzalutamide. Preliminary guidance from the committee, which included wastage of cabazitaxel, did not recommend its use. In response, the company provided both a further discount to the confidential PAS for cabazitaxel and confirmation from NHS England that it is appropriate to supply and purchase cabazitaxel in pre-prepared intravenous-infusion bags, which would remove the cost of drug wastage. As a result, the committee recommended use of cabazitaxel as a treatment option in people with an Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status of 0 or 1 whose disease had progressed during or after treatment with at least 225 mg/m2 of docetaxel, as long as it was provided at the discount agreed in the PAS and purchased in either pre-prepared intravenous-infusion bags or in vials at a reduced price to reflect the average per-patient drug wastage.

The clinical effectiveness of different surveillance strategies to prevent colorectal cancer in people with intermediate-grade colorectal adenomas: a retrospective cohort analysis, and psychological and economic evaluations.

BACKGROUND: The UK guideline recommends 3-yearly surveillance for patients with intermediate-risk (IR) adenomas. No study has examined whether or not this group has heterogeneity in surveillance needs. OBJECTIVES: To examine the effect of surveillance on colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence; assess heterogeneity in risk; and identify the optimum frequency of surveillance, the psychological impact of surveillance, and the cost-effectiveness of alternative follow-up strategies. DESIGN: Retrospective multicentre cohort study. SETTING: Routine endoscopy and pathology data from 17 UK hospitals (n = 11,944), and a screening data set comprising three pooled cohorts (n = 2352), followed up using cancer registries. SUBJECTS: Patients with IR adenoma(s) (three or four small adenomas or one or two large adenomas). PRIMARY OUTCOMES: Advanced adenoma (AA) and CRC detected at follow-up visits, and CRC incidence after baseline and first follow-up. METHODS: The effects of surveillance on long-term CRC incidence and of interval length on findings at follow-up were examined using proportional hazards and logistic regression, adjusting for patient, procedural and polyp characteristics. Lower-intermediate-risk (LIR) subgroups and higher-intermediate-risk (HIR) subgroups were defined, based on predictors of CRC risk. A model-based cost-utility analysis compared 13 surveillance strategies. Between-group analyses of variance were used to test for differences in bowel cancer worry between screening outcome groups (n = 35,700). A limitation of using routine hospital data is the potential for missed examinations and underestimation of the effect of interval and surveillance. RESULTS: In the hospital data set, 168 CRCs occurred during 81,442 person-years (pys) of follow-up [206 per 100,000 pys, 95% confidence interval (CI) 177 to 240 pys]. One surveillance significantly lowered CRC incidence, both overall [hazard ratio (HR) 0.51, 95% CI 0.34 to 0.77] and in the HIR subgroup (n = 9265; HR 0.50, 95% CI 0.34 to 0.76). In the LIR subgroup (n = 2679) the benefit of surveillance was less clear (HR 0.62, 95% CI 0.16 to 2.43). Additional surveillance lowered CRC risk in the HIR subgroup by a further 15% (HR 0.36, 95% CI 0.20 to 0.62). The odds of detecting AA and CRC at first follow-up (FUV1) increased by 18% [odds ratio (OR) 1.18, 95% CI 1.12 to 1.24] and 32% (OR 1.32, 95% CI 1.20 to 1.46) per year increase in interval, respectively, and the odds of advanced neoplasia at second follow-up increased by 22% (OR 1.22, 95% CI 1.09 to 1.36), after adjustment. Detection rates of AA and CRC remained below 10% and 1%, respectively, with intervals to 3 years. In the screening data set, 32 CRCs occurred during 25,745 pys of follow-up (124 per 100,000 pys, 95% CI 88 to 176 pys). One follow-up conferred a significant 73% reduction in CRC incidence (HR 0.27, 95% CI 0.10 to 0.71). Owing to the small number of end points in this data set, no other outcome was significant. Although post-screening bowel cancer worry was higher in people who were offered surveillance, worry was due to polyp detection rather than surveillance. The economic evaluation, using data from the hospital data set, suggested that 3-yearly colonoscopic surveillance without an age cut-off would produce the greatest health gain. CONCLUSIONS: A single surveillance benefited all IR patients by lowering their CRC risk. We identified a higher-risk subgroup that benefited from further surveillance, and a lower-risk subgroup that may require only one follow-up. A surveillance interval of 3 years seems suitable for most IR patients. These findings should be validated in other studies to confirm whether or not one surveillance visit provides adequate protection for the lower-risk subgroup of intermediate-risk patients. STUDY REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN15213649. FUNDING: The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

Cohort Profile: The Yorkshire Health Study.

The Yorkshire Health Study is a longitudinal observational regional health study collecting health information on the residents from the Yorkshire and Humberside region in England. The second wave of data collection is currently under way. The study aims to inform National Health Service (NHS) and local authority health-related decision making in Yorkshire, with wider implications from findings as well. The first wave contains records for 27 806 individuals (2010-12), aged between 16 and 85, from one part of Yorkshire (South Yorkshire), with the second wave expanding data collection to the whole of the Yorkshire and Humberside region. Data were collected on current and long-standing health, health care usage and health-related behaviours, with a particular focus on weight and weight management. The majority of individuals have also given consent for record linkage with routine clinical data, allowing the linking to disease diagnosis, medication use and health care usage. The study encourages researchers to utilize the sample through the embedding of randomized controlled trials, other controlled trials and qualitative studies. To access the anonymized data or use the sample to recruit participants to studies, researchers should contact Clare Relton (c.relton@sheffield.ac.uk).

Examining the impact of 11 long-standing health conditions on health-related quality of life using the EQ-5D in a general population sample.

OBJECTIVES: Health-related quality of life (HRQoL) measures have been increasingly used in economic evaluations for policy guidance. We investigate the impact of 11 self-reported long-standing health conditions on HRQoL using the EQ-5D in a UK sample. METHODS: We used data from 13,955 patients in the South Yorkshire Cohort study collected between 2010 and 2012 containing the EQ-5D, a preference-based measure. Ordinary least squares (OLS), Tobit and two-part regression analyses were undertaken to estimate the impact of 11 long-standing health conditions on HRQoL at the individual level. RESULTS: The results varied significantly with the regression models employed. In the OLS and Tobit models, pain had the largest negative impact on HRQoL, followed by depression, osteoarthritis and anxiety/nerves, after controlling for all other conditions and sociodemographic characteristics. The magnitude of coefficients was higher in the Tobit model than in the OLS model. In the two-part model, these four long-standing health conditions were statistically significant, but the magnitude of coefficients decreased significantly compared to that in the OLS and Tobit models and was ranked from pain followed by depression, anxiety/nerves and osteoarthritis. CONCLUSIONS: Pain, depression, osteoarthritis and anxiety/nerves are associated with the greatest losses of HRQoL in the UK population. The estimates presented in this article should be used to inform economic evaluations when assessing health care interventions, though improvements can be made in terms of diagnostic information and obtaining longitudinal data.

Enhancements to angioplasty for peripheral arterial occlusive disease: systematic review, cost-effectiveness assessment and expected value of information analysis.

BACKGROUND: There have been rapid technological developments aimed at improving short- and long-term results of percutaneous transluminal balloon angioplasty (PTA) in peripheral arterial occlusive disease (PAD). OBJECTIVES: To assess current clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness evidence of additional techniques to standard PTA for PAD, develop a health economic model to assess cost-effectiveness and to identify where further research is needed. DATA SOURCES: Relevant electronic databases, including MEDLINE, EMBASE and The Cochrane Library were searched from inception to 2011, between May and October 2011. METHODS: Systematic reviews were conducted of clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness. The population was participants with symptomatic PAD undergoing endovascular treatment for disease distal to the inguinal ligament. Interventions were modifications of and adjuncts to PTA in the peripheral circulation, compared with conventional PTA. Outcomes included measures of clinical effectiveness and costs. Data were extracted from randomised controlled trials (RCTs), which were quality assessed using standard criteria. Where appropriate, meta-analyses using fixed- and random-effects methods produced relative risks (RRs). A discrete-event simulation model was developed to assess the relative cost-effectiveness of the interventions from a NHS perspective over a lifetime. The patient populations of intermittent claudication (IC) and critical limb ischaemia (CLI) were modelled separately. Univariate and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were undertaken. RESULTS: In total, 40 RCTs were included, many of which had small sample sizes. Significantly reduced restenosis rates were shown in meta-analyses of self-expanding stents (SES) {RR 0.67 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.52 to 0.87]}, endovascular brachytherapy (EVBT) [RR 0.63 (95% CI 0.48 to 0.83)] at 12 months and drug-coated balloons (DCBs) at 6 months [RR 0.40 (95% CI 0.23 to 0.69)], and single studies of stent-graft or drug-eluting stent (DES), compared with PTA; a single study showed improvements with DES versus bare-metal stents (BMSs). Compared with PTA, walking capacity was not significantly affected by cutting balloon, balloon-expandable stents or EVBT; in SES, there was evidence of improvement in walking capacity after up to 12 months. The use of DCBs dominated both the assumed standard practice of PTA with bailout BMS and all other interventions because it lowered lifetime costs and improved quality of life (QoL). These results were seen for both patient populations (IC and CLI). Sensitivity analyses showed that the results were robust to different assumptions about the clinical benefits attributable to the interventions, suggesting that the use of DCBs is cost-saving. LIMITATIONS: Differing definitions of restenosis made direct comparison across trials difficult. There were few data available for walking capacity and QoL. CONCLUSIONS: The evidence showed a significant benefit to reducing restenosis rates for self-expanding and DESs, stent-graft, EVBT and DCBs. If it is assumed that patency translates into beneficial long-term clinical outcomes, then DCB and bail-out DES are most likely to be the cost-effective enhancements to PTA. A RCT comparing current recommended practice (PTA with bail-out BMS) with DCB and bail-out DES could assess long-term follow-up and cost-effectiveness. Data relating patency status to the need for reintervention and to the probability of symptoms returning should be collected, as should health-related QoL measures [European Quality of Life-5 Dimensions (EQ-5D) and maximum walking distance]. STUDY REGISTRATION: This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42012002014. FUNDING: The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.