A Conserved Histidine in the RNA Sensor RIG-I Controls Immune Tolerance to N1-2'O-Methylated Self RNA.

The cytosolic helicase retinoic acid-inducible gene-I (RIG-I) initiates immune responses to most RNA viruses by detecting viral 5'-triphosphorylated RNA (pppRNA). Although endogenous mRNA is also 5'-triphosphorylated, backbone modifications and the 5'-ppp-linked methylguanosine ((m7)G) cap prevent immunorecognition. Here we show that the methylation status of endogenous capped mRNA at the 5'-terminal nucleotide (N1) was crucial to prevent RIG-I activation. Moreover, we identified a single conserved amino acid (H830) in the RIG-I RNA binding pocket as the mediator of steric exclusion of N1-2'O-methylated RNA. H830A alteration (RIG-I(H830A)) restored binding of N1-2'O-methylated pppRNA. Consequently, endogenous mRNA activated the RIG-I(H830A) mutant but not wild-type RIG-I. Similarly, knockdown of the endogenous N1-2'O-methyltransferase led to considerable RIG-I stimulation in the absence of exogenous stimuli. Studies involving yellow-fever-virus-encoded 2'O-methyltransferase and RIG-I(H830A) revealed that viruses exploit this mechanism to escape RIG-I. Our data reveal a new role for cap N1-2'O-methylation in RIG-I tolerance of self-RNA.

Unique human immune signature of Ebola virus disease in Guinea.

Despite the magnitude of the Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak in West Africa, there is still a fundamental lack of knowledge about the pathophysiology of EVD. In particular, very little is known about human immune responses to Ebola virus. Here we evaluate the physiology of the human T cell immune response in EVD patients at the time of admission to the Ebola Treatment Center in Guinea, and longitudinally until discharge or death. Through the use of multiparametric flow cytometry established by the European Mobile Laboratory in the field, we identify an immune signature that is unique in EVD fatalities. Fatal EVD was characterized by a high percentage of CD4(+) and CD8(+) T cells expressing the inhibitory molecules CTLA-4 and PD-1, which correlated with elevated inflammatory markers and high virus load. Conversely, surviving individuals showed significantly lower expression of CTLA-4 and PD-1 as well as lower inflammation, despite comparable overall T cell activation. Concomitant with virus clearance, survivors mounted a robust Ebola-virus-specific T cell response. Our findings suggest that dysregulation of the T cell response is a key component of EVD pathophysiology.

Laboratory Findings, Compassionate Use of Favipiravir, and Outcome in Patients With Ebola Virus Disease, Guinea, 2015-A Retrospective Observational Study.

BACKGROUND: In 2015, the laboratory at the Ebola treatment center in Coyah, Guinea, confirmed Ebola virus disease (EVD) in 286 patients. The cycle threshold (Ct) of an Ebola virus-specific reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction assay and 13 blood chemistry parameters were measured on admission and during hospitalization. Favipiravir treatment was offered to patients with EVD on a compassionate-use basis. METHODS: To reduce biases in the raw field data, we carefully selected 163 of 286 patients with EVD for a retrospective study to assess associations between potential risk factors, alterations in blood chemistry findings, favipiravir treatment, and outcome. RESULTS: The case-fatality rate in favipiravir-treated patients was lower than in untreated patients (42.5% [31 of 73] vs 57.8% [52 of 90]; P = .053 by univariate analysis). In multivariate regression analysis, a higher Ct and a younger age were associated with survival (P < .001), while favipiravir treatment showed no statistically significant effect (P = .11). However, Kaplan-Meier analysis indicated a longer survival time in the favipiravir-treated group (P = .015). The study also showed characteristic changes in blood chemistry findings in patients who died, compared with survivors. CONCLUSIONS: Consistent with the JIKI trial, this retrospective study revealed a trend toward improved survival in favipiravir- treated patients; however, the effect of treatment was not statistically significant, except for its influence on survival time.

Rift Valley fever virus minigenome system for investigating the role of L protein residues in viral transcription and replication.

Replicon systems are important tools for investigating viral RNA synthesis. We have developed an ambisense minigenome system for Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) with the aim to analyse the effects of L gene mutations on viral transcription versus replication. The overall activity of the replication complex was assessed by expression of a luciferase reporter gene. Northern blot analysis enabled differentiation between synthesis of viral mRNA and replication intermediates. The functionality of the system was demonstrated by probing residues predictably involved in the cap-snatching endonuclease active site in the L protein. Corresponding mutations led to a selective defect in the viral mRNA synthesis as described for other bunyaviruses. The analysis of further L gene mutants revealed an essential role of a C-terminal region in the RVFV L protein in viral transcription. In summary, the established minigenome system is suitable for functional testing of the relevance of residues for viral transcription and replication.

Kinetics of Soluble Mediators of the Host Response in Ebola Virus Disease.

Background: The pathophysiology of Ebola virus disease (EVD) is still poorly understood. This study aimed at identifying soluble biomarkers that inform on disease mechanisms. Methods: Fifty-four soluble mediators of the immune, coagulation, and endothelial system were measured in baseline and follow-up samples from hospitalized patients with EVD, using Luminex technology. Cross-sectional expression levels and changes over time were correlated with outcome. Results: Levels of circulating proinflammatory cytokines and chemokines, as well as markers of endothelial dysfunction and coagulopathy, were elevated on admission to hospital in patients who died from EVD as compared to survivors. These markers further increased in patients who died and/or decreased over time in survivors. In contrast, markers of gut integrity and T-cell response were higher in survivors and increased until discharge. Conclusions: Inflammatory response, endothelial integrity, gastric tissue protection, and T cell immunity play a role in EVD pathophysiology.

Chimeric Mice with Competent Hematopoietic Immunity Reproduce Key Features of Severe Lassa Fever.

Lassa fever (LASF) is a highly severe viral syndrome endemic to West African countries. Despite the annual high morbidity and mortality caused by LASF, very little is known about the pathophysiology of the disease. Basic research on LASF has been precluded due to the lack of relevant small animal models that reproduce the human disease. Immunocompetent laboratory mice are resistant to infection with Lassa virus (LASV) and, to date, only immunodeficient mice, or mice expressing human HLA, have shown some degree of susceptibility to experimental infection. Here, transplantation of wild-type bone marrow cells into irradiated type I interferon receptor knockout mice (IFNAR-/-) was used to generate chimeric mice that reproduced important features of severe LASF in humans. This included high lethality, liver damage, vascular leakage and systemic virus dissemination. In addition, this model indicated that T cell-mediated immunopathology was an important component of LASF pathogenesis that was directly correlated with vascular leakage. Our strategy allows easy generation of a suitable small animal model to test new vaccines and antivirals and to dissect the basic components of LASF pathophysiology.

Evaluation of RealStar Reverse Transcription-Polymerase Chain Reaction Kits for Filovirus Detection in the Laboratory and Field.

BACKGROUND: Diagnosis of Ebola virus (EBOV) disease (EVD) requires laboratory testing. METHODS: The RealStar Filovirus Screen reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) kit and the derived RealStar Zaire Ebolavirus RT-PCR kit were validated using in vitro transcripts, supernatant of infected cell cultures, and clinical specimens from patients with EVD. RESULTS: The Filovirus Screen kit detected EBOV, Sudan virus, Taï Forest virus, Bundibugyo virus, Reston virus, and Marburg virus and differentiated between the genera Ebolavirus and Marburgvirus The amount of filovirus RNA that could be detected with a probability of 95% ranged from 11 to 67 RNA copies/reaction on a LightCycler 480 II. The Zaire Ebolavirus kit is based on the Filovirus Screen kit but was optimized for detection of EBOV. It has an improved signal-to-noise ratio at low EBOV RNA concentrations and is somewhat more sensitive than the Filovirus kit. Both kits show significantly lower analytical sensitivity on a SmartCycler II. Clinical evaluation revealed that the SmartCycler II, compared with other real-time PCR platforms, decreases the clinical sensitivity of the Filovirus Screen kit to diagnose EVD at an early stage. CONCLUSIONS: The Filovirus Screen kit detects all human-pathogenic filoviruses with good analytical sensitivity if performed on an appropriate real-time PCR platform. High analytical sensitivity is important for early diagnosis of EVD.

Ebola Virus Disease Is Characterized by Poor Activation and Reduced Levels of Circulating CD16+ Monocytes.

A number of previous studies have identified antigen-presenting cells (APCs) as key targets of Ebola virus (EBOV), but the role of APCs in human Ebola virus disease (EVD) is not known. We have evaluated the phenotype and kinetics of monocytes, neutrophils, and dendritic cells (DCs) in peripheral blood of patients for whom EVD was diagnosed by the European Mobile Laboratory in Guinea. Acute EVD was characterized by reduced levels of circulating nonclassical CD16+ monocytes with a poor activation profile. In survivors, CD16+ monocytes were activated during recovery, coincident with viral clearance, suggesting an important role of this cell subset in EVD pathophysiology.

Analysis of Diagnostic Findings From the European Mobile Laboratory in Guéckédou, Guinea, March 2014 Through March 2015.

BACKGROUND: A unit of the European Mobile Laboratory (EMLab) consortium was deployed to the Ebola virus disease (EVD) treatment unit in Guéckédou, Guinea, from March 2014 through March 2015. METHODS: The unit diagnosed EVD and malaria, using the RealStar Filovirus Screen reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) kit and a malaria rapid diagnostic test, respectively. RESULTS: The cleaned EMLab database comprised 4719 samples from 2741 cases of suspected EVD from Guinea. EVD was diagnosed in 1231 of 2178 hospitalized patients (57%) and in 281 of 563 who died in the community (50%). Children aged <15 years had the highest proportion of Ebola virus-malaria parasite coinfections. The case-fatality ratio was high in patients aged <5 years (80%) and those aged >74 years (90%) and low in patients aged 10-19 years (40%). On admission, RT-PCR analysis of blood specimens from patients who died in the hospital yielded a lower median cycle threshold (Ct) than analysis of blood specimens from survivors (18.1 vs 23.2). Individuals who died in the community had a median Ct of 21.5 for throat swabs. Multivariate logistic regression on 1047 data sets revealed that low Ct values, ages of <5 and ≥45 years, and, among children aged 5-14 years, malaria parasite coinfection were independent determinants of a poor EVD outcome. CONCLUSIONS: Virus load, age, and malaria parasite coinfection play a role in the outcome of EVD.

A basic cluster in the N terminus of yellow fever virus NS2A contributes to infectious particle production.

UNLABELLED: The flavivirus NS2A protein is involved in the assembly of infectious particles. To further understand its role in this process, a charged-to-alanine scanning analysis was performed on NS2A encoded by an infectious cDNA clone of yellow fever virus (YFV). Fifteen mutants containing single, double, or triple charged-to-alanine changes were tested. Five of them did not produce infectious particles, whereas efficient RNA replication was detectable for two of the five NS2A mutants (R22A-K23A-R24A and R99A-E100A-R101A mutants). Prolonged cultivation of transfected cells resulted in the recovery of pseudorevertants. Besides suppressor mutants in NS2A, a compensating second-site mutation in NS3 (D343G) arose for the NS2A R22A-K23A-R24A mutant. We found this NS3 mutation previously to be suppressive for the NS2Aα cleavage site Q189S mutant, also deficient in virion assembly. In this study, the subsequently suggested interaction between NS2A and NS3 was proven by coimmunoprecipitation analyses. Using selectively permeabilized cells, we could demonstrate that the regions encompassing R22A-K23A-R24A and Q189S in NS2A are localized to the cytoplasm, where NS3 is also known to reside. However, the defect in particle production observed for the NS2A R22A-K23A-R24A and Q189S mutants was not due to a defect in physical interaction between NS2A and NS3, as the NS2A mutations did not interrupt NS3 interaction. In fact, a region just upstream of R22-K23-R24 was mapped to be critical for NS2A-NS3 interaction. Taken together, these data support a complex interplay between YFV NS2A and NS3 in virion assembly and identify a basic cluster in the NS2A N terminus to be critical in this process. IMPORTANCE: Despite an available vaccine, yellow fever remains endemic in tropical areas of South America and Africa. To control the disease, antiviral drugs are required, and an understanding of the determinants of virion assembly is central to their development. In this study, we identified a basic cluster of amino acids in the N terminus of YFV NS2A which inhibited virion assembly upon mutation. The defect was rescued by a spontaneously occurring mutation in NS3. Our study proves an interaction between NS2A and NS3, which, remarkably, was maintained for the NS2A mutant in the presence and absence of the NS3 mutation. This suggests a role for other viral and/or cellular proteins in virion assembly. Residues important for YFV virion production reported here only partially coincided with those reported for other flaviviruses, suggesting that the determinants for particle production are virus specific. Reconstruction of a YFV encoding tagged NS2A paves the way to identify further NS2A interaction partners.

Development of an antibody capture ELISA using inactivated Ebola Zaire Makona virus.

The 2014 Zaire Ebola virus (ZEBOV) outbreak in West Africa represents an international public health concern. Highly sensitive and precise diagnostic tools are needed. In the present study, we developed a ZEBOV-specific enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) using inactivated ZEBOV isolate Makona from March 2014. Mock antigen was used to address nonspecific binding. Specificity, reproducibility and precision were determined to measure assay performance. The ZEBOV ELISA proved to be specific (96 %), reproducible and precise (Intra-assay CV 8 %, Inter-assay CV 18 %). Using the human monoclonal antibody KZ52, we showed that the ELISA was able to detect conformation-specific antibodies. Monitoring antibody development in 29 PCR-positive EBOV disease (EVD) patients revealed seroconversion in all cases. In addition, the ELISA was used to detect ZEBOV glycoprotein (GP)-specific antibodies in a vaccinated volunteer from day 14 until 5 years post-vaccination with a VSV-ZEBOV candidate vaccine. The results demonstrate the high reproducibility, specificity and sensitivity of this newly developed ELISA, which is suitable for the detection of specific antibody responses directed against different ZEBOV proteins in EVD patients and against the ZEBOV surface glycoprotein GP in vaccinated individuals.

Structure of the Lassa virus nucleoprotein revealed by X-ray crystallography, small-angle X-ray scattering, and electron microscopy.

The nucleoprotein (NP) of Lassa virus (LASV) strain AV was expressed in a recombinant baculovirus system. The crystal structure of full-length NP was solved at a resolution of 2.45 Å. The overall fold corresponds to that of NP of LASV strain Josiah (Qi, X., Lan, S., Wang, W., Schelde, L. M., Dong, H., Wallat, G. D., Ly, H., Liang, Y., and Dong, C. (2010) Nature 468, 779-783) with a root mean square deviation of 0.67 Å for all atoms (6.3% difference in primary sequence). As the packing in the crystal offers two different trimer architectures for the biological assembly, the quaternary structure of NP in solution was determined by small-angle x-ray scattering and EM. After classification and averaging of >6000 EM raw images, trimeric centrosymmetric structures were obtained, which correspond in size and shape to one trimer in the crystal structure formed around a crystallographic 3-fold rotation axis (symmetric trimer). The symmetric trimer is also a good model for the small-angle x-ray scattering data and could be well embedded into the ab initio model. The N-terminal domain of NP contains a deep nucleotide-binding cavity that has been proposed to bind cellular cap structures for priming viral mRNA synthesis. All residues implicated in m(7)GpppN binding were exchanged, and the transcription/replication phenotype of the NP mutant was tested using a LASV replicon system. None of the mutants showed a specific defect in mRNA expression; most were globally defective in RNA synthesis. In conclusion, we describe the full-length crystal structure and the quaternary structure in solution of LASV NP. The nucleotide-binding pocket of NP could not be assigned a specific role in viral mRNA synthesis.

Cross-species analysis of the replication complex of Old World arenaviruses reveals two nucleoprotein sites involved in L protein function.

Lassa virus (LASV) causing hemorrhagic Lassa fever in West Africa, Mopeia virus (MOPV) from East Africa, and lymphocytic choriomeningitis virus (LCMV) are the main representatives of the Old World arenaviruses. Little is known about how the components of the arenavirus replication machinery, i.e., the genome, nucleoprotein (NP), and L protein, interact. In addition, it is unknown whether these components can function across species boundaries. We established minireplicon systems for MOPV and LCMV in analogy to the existing LASV system and exchanged the components among the three systems. The functional and physical integrity of the resulting complexes was tested by reporter gene assay, Northern blotting, and coimmunoprecipitation studies. The minigenomes, NPs, and L proteins of LASV and MOPV could be exchanged without loss of function. LASV and MOPV L protein was also active in conjunction with LCMV NP, while the LCMV L protein required homologous NP for activity. Analysis of LASV/LCMV NP chimeras identified a single LCMV-specific NP residue (Ile-53) and the C terminus of NP (residues 340 to 558) as being essential for LCMV L protein function. The defect of LASV and MOPV NP in supporting transcriptional activity of LCMV L protein was not caused by a defect in physical NP-L protein interaction. In conclusion, components of the replication complex of Old World arenaviruses have the potential to functionally and physically interact across species boundaries. Residue 53 and the C-terminal domain of NP are important for function of L protein during genome replication and transcription.

The N-terminal domain of the arenavirus L protein is an RNA endonuclease essential in mRNA transcription.

Arenaviridae synthesize viral mRNAs using short capped primers presumably acquired from cellular transcripts by a 'cap-snatching' mechanism. Here, we report the crystal structure and functional characterization of the N-terminal 196 residues (NL1) of the L protein from the prototypic arenavirus: lymphocytic choriomeningitis virus. The NL1 domain is able to bind and cleave RNA. The 2.13 Å resolution crystal structure of NL1 reveals a type II endonuclease α/ß architecture similar to the N-terminal end of the influenza virus PA protein. Superimposition of both structures, mutagenesis and reverse genetics studies reveal a unique spatial arrangement of key active site residues related to the PD…(D/E)XK type II endonuclease signature sequence. We show that this endonuclease domain is conserved and active across the virus families Arenaviridae, Bunyaviridae and Orthomyxoviridae and propose that the arenavirus NL1 domain is the Arenaviridae cap-snatching endonuclease.

Establishment of Recombinant Trisegmented Mopeia Virus Expressing Two Reporter Genes for Screening of Mammarenavirus Inhibitors.

Highly pathogenic Arenaviruses, like the Lassa Virus (LASV), pose a serious public health threat in affected countries. Research and development of vaccines and therapeutics are urgently needed but hampered by the necessity to handle these pathogens under biosafety level 4 conditions. These containment restrictions make large-scale screens of antiviral compounds difficult. Therefore, the Mopeia virus (MOPV), closely related to LASV, is often used as an apathogenic surrogate virus. We established for the first time trisegmented MOPVs (r3MOPV) with duplicated S segments, in which one of the viral genes was replaced by the reporter genes ZsGreen (ZsG) or Renilla Luciferase (Rluc), respectively. In vitro characterization of the two trisegmented viruses (r3MOPV ZsG/Rluc and r3MOPV Rluc/ZsG), showed comparable growth behavior to the wild type virus and the expression of the reporter genes correlated well with viral titer. We used the reporter viruses in a proof-of-principle in vitro study to evaluate the antiviral activity of two well characterized drugs. IC50 values obtained by Rluc measurement were similar to those obtained by virus titers. ZsG expression was also suitable to evaluate antiviral effects. The trisegmented MOPVs described here provide a versatile and valuable basis for rapid high throughput screening of broadly reactive antiviral compounds against arenaviruses under BSL-2 conditions.

Heterologous arenavirus vector prime-boost overrules self-tolerance for efficient tumor-specific CD8 T cell attack.

Therapeutic vaccination regimens inducing clinically effective tumor-specific CD8+ T lymphocyte (CTL) responses are an unmet medical need. We engineer two distantly related arenaviruses, Pichinde virus and lymphocytic choriomeningitis virus, for therapeutic cancer vaccination. In mice, life-replicating vector formats of these two viruses delivering a self-antigen in a heterologous prime-boost regimen induce tumor-specific CTL responses up to 50% of the circulating CD8 T cell pool. This CTL attack eliminates established solid tumors in a significant proportion of animals, accompanied by protection against tumor rechallenge. The magnitude of CTL responses is alarmin driven and requires combining two genealogically distantly related arenaviruses. Vector-neutralizing antibodies do not inhibit booster immunizations by the same vector or by closely related vectors. Rather, CTL immunodominance hierarchies favor vector backbone-targeted responses at the expense of self-reactive CTLs. These findings establish an arenavirus-based immunotherapy regimen that allows reshuffling of immunodominance hierarchies and breaking self-directed tolerance for efficient tumor control.

Variation around the dominant viral genome sequence contributes to viral load and outcome in patients with Ebola virus disease.

BACKGROUND: Viral load is a major contributor to outcome in patients with Ebola virus disease (EVD), with high values leading to a fatal outcome. Evidence from the 2013-2016 Ebola virus (EBOV) outbreak indicated that different genotypes of the virus can have different phenotypes in patients. Additionally, due to the error-prone nature of viral RNA synthesis in an individual patient, the EBOV genome exists around a dominant viral genome sequence. The minor variants within a patient may contribute to the overall phenotype in terms of viral protein function. To investigate the effects of these minor variants, blood samples from patients with acute EVD were deeply sequenced. RESULTS: We examine the minor variant frequency between patients with acute EVD who survived infection with those who died. Non-synonymous differences in viral proteins were identified that have implications for viral protein function. The greatest frequency of substitution was identified at three codon sites in the L gene-which encodes the viral RNA-dependent RNA polymerase (RdRp). Recapitulating this in an assay for virus replication, these substitutions result in aberrant viral RNA synthesis and correlate with patient outcome. CONCLUSIONS: Together, these findings support the notion that in patients who survived EVD, in some cases, the genetic variability of the virus resulted in deleterious mutations that affected viral protein function, leading to reduced viral load. Such mutations may also lead to persistent strains of the virus and be associated with recrudescent infections.

Deep Sequencing of RNA from Blood and Oral Swab Samples Reveals the Presence of Nucleic Acid from a Number of Pathogens in Patients with Acute Ebola Virus Disease and Is Consistent with Bacterial Translocation across the Gut.

In this study, samples from the 2013-2016 West African Ebola virus outbreak from patients in Guinea with Ebola virus disease (EVD) were analyzed to discover and classify what other pathogens were present. Throat swabs were taken from deceased EVD patients, and peripheral blood samples were analyzed that had been taken from patients when they presented at the treatment center with acute illness. High-throughput RNA sequencing (RNA-seq) and bioinformatics were used to identify the potential microorganisms. This approach confirmed Ebola virus (EBOV) in all samples from patients diagnosed as acute positive for the virus by quantitative reverse transcription-PCR in deployed field laboratories. Nucleic acid mapping to Plasmodium was also used on the patient samples, confirming results obtained with an antigen-based rapid diagnostic test (RDT) conducted in the field laboratories. The data suggested that a high Plasmodium load, as determined by sequence read depth, was associated with mortality and influenced the host response, whereas a lower parasite load did not appear to affect outcome. The identifications of selected bacteria from throat swabs via RNA-seq were confirmed by culture. The data indicated that the potential pathogens identified in the blood samples were associated with translocation from the gut, suggesting the presence of bacteremia, which transcriptome data suggested may induce or aggravate the acute-phase response observed during EVD. Transcripts mapping to different viruses were also identified, including those indicative of lytic infections. The development of high-resolution analysis of samples from patients with EVD will help inform care pathways and the most appropriate general antimicrobial therapy to be used in a resource-poor setting. IMPORTANCE Our results highlight the identification of an array of pathogens in the blood of patients with Ebola virus disease (EVD). This has not been done before, and the data have important implications for the treatment of patients with EVD, particularly considering antibiotic stewardship. We show that EVD patients who were also infected with Plasmodium, particularly at higher loads, had more adverse outcomes than patients with lower levels of Plasmodium. However, the presence of Plasmodium did not influence the innate immune response, and it is likely that the presence of EBOV dominated this response. Several viruses other than EBOV were identified, and bacteria associated with sepsis were also identified. These findings were indicative of bacterial translocation across the gut during the acute phase of EVD.

Transcriptomic signatures differentiate survival from fatal outcomes in humans infected with Ebola virus.

BACKGROUND: In 2014, Western Africa experienced an unanticipated explosion of Ebola virus infections. What distinguishes fatal from non-fatal outcomes remains largely unknown, yet is key to optimising personalised treatment strategies. We used transcriptome data for peripheral blood taken from infected and convalescent recovering patients to identify early stage host factors that are associated with acute illness and those that differentiate patient survival from fatality. RESULTS: The data demonstrate that individuals who succumbed to the disease show stronger upregulation of interferon signalling and acute phase responses compared to survivors during the acute phase of infection. Particularly notable is the strong upregulation of albumin and fibrinogen genes, which suggest significant liver pathology. Cell subtype prediction using messenger RNA expression patterns indicated that NK-cell populations increase in patients who survive infection. By selecting genes whose expression properties discriminated between fatal cases and survivors, we identify a small panel of responding genes that act as strong predictors of patient outcome, independent of viral load. CONCLUSIONS: Transcriptomic analysis of the host response to pathogen infection using blood samples taken during an outbreak situation can provide multiple levels of information on both disease state and mechanisms of pathogenesis. Host biomarkers were identified that provide high predictive value under conditions where other predictors, such as viral load, are poor prognostic indicators. The data suggested that rapid analysis of the host response to infection in an outbreak situation can provide valuable information to guide an understanding of disease outcome and mechanisms of disease.

Persistence and clearance of Ebola virus RNA from seminal fluid of Ebola virus disease survivors: a longitudinal analysis and modelling study.

BACKGROUND: By January, 2016, all known transmission chains of the Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak in west Africa had been stopped. However, there is concern about persistence of Ebola virus in the reproductive tract of men who have survived EVD. We aimed to use biostatistical modelling to describe the dynamics of Ebola virus RNA load in seminal fluid, including clearance parameters. METHODS: In this longitudinal study, we recruited men who had been discharged from three Ebola treatment units in Guinea between January and July, 2015. Participants provided samples of seminal fluid at follow-up every 3-6 weeks, which we tested for Ebola virus RNA using quantitative real-time RT-PCR. Representative specimens from eight participants were then inoculated into immunodeficient mice to test for infectivity. We used a linear mixed-effect model to analyse the dynamics of virus persistence in seminal fluid over time. FINDINGS: We enrolled 26 participants and tested 130 seminal fluid specimens; median follow up was 197 days (IQR 187-209 days) after enrolment, which corresponded to 255 days (228-287) after disease onset. Ebola virus RNA was detected in 86 semen specimens from 19 (73%) participants. Median duration of Ebola virus RNA detection was 158 days after onset (73-181; maximum 407 days at end of follow-up). Mathematical modelling of the quantitative time-series data showed a mean clearance rate of Ebola virus RNA from seminal fluid of -0·58 log units per month, although the clearance kinetic varied greatly between participants. Using our biostatistical model, we predict that 50% and 90% of male survivors clear Ebola virus RNA from seminal fluid at 115 days (90% prediction interval 72-160) and 294 days (212-399) after disease onset, respectively. We also predicted that the number of men positive for Ebola virus RNA in affected countries would decrease from about 50 in January 2016, to fewer than 1 person by July, 2016. Infectious virus was detected in 15 of 26 (58%) specimens tested in mice. INTERPRETATION: Time to clearance of Ebola virus RNA from seminal fluid varies greatly between individuals and could be more than 13 months. Our predictions will assist in decision-making about surveillance and preventive measures in EVD outbreaks. FUNDING: This study was funded by European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme, Directorate-General for International Cooperation and Development of the European Commission, Institut national de la santé et de la recherche médicale (INSERM), German Research Foundation (DFG), and Innovative Medicines Initiative 2 Joint Undertaking.