Role of Environmental Temperature on the Attack rate and Case fatality rate of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Pandemic.

SARS-CoV-2 is a zoonotic Betacoronavirus causing the devastating COVID-19 pandemic. More than twelve million COVID-19 cases and 500 thousand fatalities have been reported in 216 countries. Although SARS-CoV-2 originated in China, comparatively fewer people have been affected in other Asian countries than in Europe and the USA. This study examined the hypothesis that lower temperature may increase the spread of SARS-CoV-2 by comparing attack rate and case fatality rate (until 21 March 2020) to mean temperature in January-February 2020. The attack rate was highest in Luxembourg followed by Italy and Switzerland. There was a significant (p = 0.02) correlation between decreased attack rate and increased environmental temperature. The case fatality rate was highest in Italy followed by Iran and Spain. There was no significant correlation between the case fatality rate and temperature. This study indicates that lower temperature may increase SARS-CoV-2 transmission (measured as an increased attack rate), but there is no evidence that temperature affects the severity of the disease (measured as case fatality rate). However, there are clearly other factors that affect the transmission of SARS-CoV-2, and many of these may be sensitive to interventions, e.g. through increased public awareness and public health response.

Prevalence and Diversity of Avian Influenza Virus Hemagglutinin Sero-Subtypes in Poultry and Wild Birds in Bangladesh.

Highly pathogenic avian influenza H5 viruses have pandemic potential, cause significant economic losses and are of veterinary and public health concerns. This study aimed to investigate the distribution and diversity of hemagglutinin (HA) subtypes of avian influenza virus (AIV) in poultry and wild birds in Bangladesh. We conducted an avian influenza sero-surveillance in wild and domestic birds in wetlands of Chattogram and Sylhet in the winter seasons 2012-2014. We tested serum samples using a competitive enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (c-ELISA), and randomly selected positive serum samples (170 of 942) were tested using hemagglutination inhibition (HI) to detect antibodies against the 16 different HA sero-subtypes. All AIV sero-subtypes except H7, H11, H14 and H15 were identified in the present study, with H5 and H9 dominating over other subtypes, regardless of the bird species. The diversity of HA sero-subtypes within groups ranged from 3 (in household chickens) to 10 (in migratory birds). The prevalence of the H5 sero-subtype was 76.3% (29/38) in nomadic ducks, 71.4% (5/7) in household chicken, 66.7% (24/36) in resident wild birds, 65.9% (27/41) in migratory birds and 61.7% (29/47) in household ducks. Moreover, the H9 sero-subtype was common in migratory birds (56%; 23/41), followed by 38.3% (18/47) in household ducks, 36.8% (14/38) in nomadic ducks, 30.6% (11/66) in resident wild birds and 28.5% (2/7) in household chickens. H1, H4 and H6 sero-subtypes were the most common sero-subtypes (80%; 8/10, 70%; 7/10 and 70%; 7/10, respectively) in migratory birds in 2012, H9 in resident wild birds (83.3%; 5/6) and H2 in nomadic ducks (73.9%; 17/23) in 2013, and the H5 sero-subtype in all types of birds (50% to 100%) in 2014. The present study demonstrates that a high diversity of HA subtypes circulated in diverse bird species in Bangladesh, and this broad range of AIV hosts may increase the probability of AIVs' reassortment and may enhance the emergence of novel AIV strains. A continued surveillance for AIV at targeted domestic-wild bird interfaces is recommended to understand the ecology and evolution of AIVs.

Epidemiology and genetic characterization of Peste des petits ruminants virus in Bangladesh.

Peste des petits ruminants (PPR) is an acute, highly contagious disease responsible for high morbidity and mortality rates in susceptible sheep and goats. Adequate knowledge of the diversity of circulating strains of PPR virus will help livestock authorities choose appropriate vaccines. The objective of this study was to describe the epidemiology of PPR and characterize the strains circulating in Bangladesh. Veterinarians enrolled goats showing signs consistent with PPR, including diarrhoea, fever and respiratory distress, from three veterinary hospitals. Post-treatment follow up was carried out to ascertain health outcomes of the goats. Faecal and throat swab samples were collected from the goats and tested for PPRV RNA using real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (rRT-PCR). Nucleotide sequence-based phylogenetic analyses of two structural genes, the nucleocapsid (N gene), and the haemagglutinin (H gene) were studied to determine the genetic variations of PPRV strains. Of the 539 goats enrolled, 38% (203/539) had detectable RNA for PPRV. We were able to follow up with 91% (184/203) of the PPRV infected goats; 44 of them died (24%). PPRV was more frequently identified in the summer (45%) than in the rainy season (29%) (Odds ratio = 1.9, 95% confidence interval: 1.3-3.1). Bangladeshi strains were phylogenetically similar to the lineage IV PPRV strains; showing particularly strong affiliation with Tibetan and Indian strains. PPR is a common viral infection of the goats in Bangladesh, with a high case-fatality rate. This study confirms the circulation of lineage IV PPRV in the country with unique amino acid substitutions in N and H proteins and provides baseline data for vaccine development and implementation.