Prospective associations between changes in physical activity and sedentary time and subsequent lean muscle mass in older English adults: the EPIC-Norfolk cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The longitudinal associations between physical behaviours and lean muscle mass indices need to be better understood to aid healthy ageing intervention development. METHODS: We assessed physical behaviours (total physical activity, moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA), light physical activity, total sedentary time and prolonged sedentary bout time) for 7 days using hip-worn accelerometers. We also assessed domain-specific physical behaviours (walking, cycling, gardening and housework time) with self-report questionnaires at baseline (2006-2011) and follow-up (2012-2016) in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer (EPIC)-Norfolk study. We assessed body composition using dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DEXA) at follow-up in 1535 participants (≥ 60 years at baseline). From this, we derived appendicular lean muscle mass (ALM) indices (% relative ALM = (ALM/total body weight)*100), body mass index (BMI)-scaled ALM (ALM/BMI, kg/kg/m2) and height-scaled ALM (ALM/height2, kg/m2)). We evaluated the prospective associations of both baseline and change in physical behaviours with follow-up muscle mass indices using multivariable linear regression. RESULTS: Over 5.5 years (SD 14.8) follow-up, higher baseline accelerometer-measured physical activity and lower sedentary time were associated with higher subsequent relative ALM and BMI-scaled ALM, but not height-scaled ALM (e.g. 0.02% higher subsequent relative ALM per minute/day of baseline MVPA for men). Greater increases in physical activity and greater declines in sedentary time variables were associated with higher subsequent relative ALM and BMI-scaled ALM, but not height-scaled ALM (e.g. 0.001 kg/kg/m2 subsequent BMI-scaled ALM and 0.04% subsequent relative ALM per min/day/year increases in LPA over follow-up; 0.001 kg/kg/m2 subsequent BMI-scaled ALM and -0.03% subsequent relative ALM per min/day/year less of total sedentary time over follow-up). Greater increases in women's cycling and gardening over follow-up were associated with greater subsequent relative ALM (cycling 0.9% per hour/week/year; gardening 0.2% per hour/week/year) and BMI-scaled ALM (cycling 0.03 kg/kg/m2 per hour/week/year; gardening 0.004 kg/kg/m2 per hour/week/year). CONCLUSION: Physical behaviours across all intensities, and in women more specifically cycling and gardening, may help prevent age-related declines in muscle mass.

Associations between change in physical activity and sedentary time and health-related quality of life in older english adults: the EPIC-Norfolk cohort study.

BACKGROUND: No previous studies have examined the associations between changes in objectively-measured physical behaviours with follow-up QoL in older adults. Based on cross-sectional evidence, it is biologically plausible that such associations exist. If so, this bolsters the case for the commissioning of activity interventions and for including QoL as an outcome in trials of such interventions. METHODS: We assessed physical behaviours (total physical activity, moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA), light physical activity, total sedentary time and prolonged sedentary bout time) for 7 days using hip-worn accelerometers at baseline (2006-2011) and follow-up (2012-2016) and health-related quality-of-life (QoL) using EQ-5D questionnaires at follow-up in 1433 participants (≥ 60 years) of the EPIC (European Prospective Investigation into Cancer)-Norfolk study. The EQ-5D summary score was used, with 0 as the worst to 1 as best perceived quality-of-life. We evaluated the prospective associations of baseline physical behaviours with follow-up QoL, and of changes in behaviours with follow-up QoL using multi-level regression. RESULTS: On average, MVPA decreased by 4.0 min/day/year (SD 8.3) for men and 4.0 min/day/year for women (SD 12.0) between baseline and follow-up. Total sedentary time increased by an average 5.5 min/day/yr (SD 16.0) for men and 6.4 min/day/yr (SD 15.0) for women between baseline and follow-up. Mean (SD) follow-up time was 5.8 (1.8) years. We found that higher baseline MVPA and lower sedentary time was associated with higher subsequent QoL (e.g. 1 h/day greater baseline MVPA was associated with 0.02 higher EQ-5D score, 95% CI 0.06, 0.36). More pronounced declines in activity were associated with worse Hr-QoL (0.005 (95% CI 0.003, 0.008) lower EQ-5D per min/day/yr decrease in MVPA). Increases in sedentary behaviours were also associated with poorer QoL (0.002 lower EQ-5D, 95% CI -0.003, -0.0007 per hour/day/yr increase in total sedentary time). CONCLUSIONS: Promotion of physical activity and limiting sedentary time among older adults may improve quality-of-life, and therefore this relationship ought to be included in future cost effectiveness analyses so that greater commissioning of activity interventions can be considered.

Sex-specific associations between potassium intake, blood pressure, and cardiovascular outcomes: the EPIC-Norfolk study.

AIMS: A potassium replete diet is associated with lower blood pressure (BP) and lower risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). Whether these associations differ between men and women and whether they depend on daily sodium intake is unknown. METHODS AND RESULTS: An analysis was performed in 11 267 men and 13 696 women from the EPIC-Norfolk cohort. Twenty-four hour excretion of sodium and potassium, reflecting intake, was estimated from sodium and potassium concentration in spot urine samples using the Kawasaki formula. Linear and Cox regression were used to explore the association between potassium intake, systolic BP (SBP), and CVD events (defined as hospitalization or death due to CVD). After adjustment for confounders, interaction by sex was found for the association between potassium intake and SBP (P < 0.001). In women, but not in men, the inverse slope between potassium intake and SBP was steeper in those within the highest tertile of sodium intake compared with those within the lowest tertile of sodium intake (P < 0.001 for interaction by sodium intake). Both in men and women, higher potassium intake was associated with a lower risk of CVD events, but the hazard ratio (HR) associated with higher potassium intake was lower in women than in men [highest vs. lowest potassium intake tertile: men: HR 0.93, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.87-1.00; women: HR 0.89, 95% CI 0.83-0.95, P = 0.033 for interaction by sex]. CONCLUSION: The association between potassium intake, SBP, and CVD events is sex specific. The data suggest that women with a high sodium intake in particular benefit most from a higher potassium intake with regard to SBP.

Higher anticholinergic burden from medications is associated with significant increase in markers of inflammation in the EPIC-Norfolk prospective population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Higher medication anticholinergic burden is associated with increased risk of cardiovascular disease and cognitive decline. A mechanistic pathway has not been established. We aimed to determine whether inflammation may mediate these associations. METHODS: Participants were drawn from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer, Norfolk cohort (40-79 years at baseline). Anticholinergic burden score (ACB) was calculated at first (1HC) (1993/97) and second (2HC) (1998/2000) health checks. Fibrinogen and C-reactive protein (CRP) were measured during 1HC and tumour necrosis factor alpha (TNF-α) and interleukin 6 (IL-6) during 2HC. Cross-sectional associations between ACB and inflammatory markers were examined for both health checks. Prospective associations were also examined between 1HC ACB and 2HC inflammatory markers. Models were adjusted for age, sex, lifestyle factors, comorbidities and medications. RESULTS: In total, 17 678 and 22 051 participants were included in cross-sectional analyses for CRP, and fibrinogen, respectively. Furthermore, 5101 participants with data on TNF-α and IL-6 were included in the prospective analyses. Cross-sectionally, compared to ACB = 0, ACB ≥ 4 was associated with higher fibrinogen, beta (95% confidence interval) = 0.134 g/L (0.070, 0.199), CRP 1.175 mg/L (0.715, 1.634), IL-6 0.593 pg/mL (0.254, 0.932) and TNF-α 0.137 pg/mL (0.033, 0.241). In addition, a point increase in ACB was associated with higher levels of all markers. Prospectively, compared to ACB = 0, ACB ≥ 4 was associated with higher IL-6(pg/mL) of 0.019 (-0.323, 0.361) and TNF-α (pg/mL) of 0.202% (0.81, 0.323). A unit increase in ACB was associated with a significantly higher TNF-α and IL-6. CONCLUSION: Higher ACB was associated with higher inflammatory markers. Inflammation may mediate the relationship between anticholinergic medications and adverse outcomes.

Physical activity intensity profiles associated with cardiometabolic risk in middle-aged to older men and women.

Accelerometers provide detailed data about physical activity (PA) across the full intensity spectrum. However, when examining associations with health, results are often aggregated to only a few summary measures [e.g. time spent "sedentary" or "moderate-to-vigorous" intensity PA]. Using multivariate pattern analysis, which can handle collinear exposure variables, we examined associations between the full PA intensity spectrum and cardiometabolic risk (CMR) in a population-based sample of middle-aged to older adults. Participants (n = 3660; mean ± SD age = 69 ± 8y and BMI = 26.7 ± 4.2 kg/m2; 55% female) from the EPIC-Norfolk study (UK) with valid accelerometry (ActiGraph-GT1M) data were included. We used multivariate pattern analysis with partial least squares regression to examine cross-sectional multivariate associations (r) across the full PA intensity spectrum [minutes/day at 0-5000 counts-per-minute (cpm); 5 s epoch] with a continuous CMR score (reflecting waist, blood pressure, lipid, and glucose metabolism). Models were sex-stratified and adjusted for potential confounders. There was a positive (detrimental) association between PA and CMR at 0-12 cpm (maximally-adjusted r = 0.08 (95%CI 0.06-0.10). PA was negatively (favourably) associated with CMR at all intensities above 13 cpm ranging between r = -0.09 (0.07-0.12) at 800-999 cpm and r = -0.14 (0.11-0.16) at 75-99 and 4000-4999 cpm. The strongest favourable associations were from 50 to 800 cpm (r = 0.10-0.12) in men, but from ≥2500 cpm (r = 0.18-0.20) in women; with higher proportions of model explained variance for women (R2 = 7.4% vs. 2.3%). Most of the PA intensity spectrum was beneficially associated with CMR in middle-aged to older adults, even at intensities lower than what has traditionally been considered "sedentary" or "light-intensity" activity. This supports encouragement of PA at almost any intensity in this age-group.

Incorporating multiple sets of eQTL weights into gene-by-environment interaction analysis identifies novel susceptibility loci for pancreatic cancer.

It is of great scientific interest to identify interactions between genetic variants and environmental exposures that may modify the risk of complex diseases. However, larger sample sizes are usually required to detect gene-by-environment interaction (G × E) than required to detect genetic main association effects. To boost the statistical power and improve the understanding of the underlying molecular mechanisms, we incorporate functional genomics information, specifically, expression quantitative trait loci (eQTLs), into a data-adaptive G × E test, called aGEw. This test adaptively chooses the best eQTL weights from multiple tissues and provides an extra layer of weighting at the genetic variant level. Extensive simulations show that the aGEw test can control the Type 1 error rate, and the power is resilient to the inclusion of neutral variants and noninformative external weights. We applied the proposed aGEw test to the Pancreatic Cancer Case-Control Consortium (discovery cohort of 3,585 cases and 3,482 controls) and the PanScan II genome-wide association study data (replication cohort of 2,021 cases and 2,105 controls) with smoking as the exposure of interest. Two novel putative smoking-related pancreatic cancer susceptibility genes, TRIP10 and KDM3A, were identified. The aGEw test is implemented in an R package aGE.

Plasma Sulfur Amino Acids and Risk of Cerebrovascular Diseases: A Nested Case-Control Study in the EPIC-Norfolk Cohort.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: B-vitamin supplements lower circulating concentrations of homocysteine and may reduce stroke incidence. Homocysteine concentrations are associated with the incidence of stroke but other sulfur-containing compounds in the related metabolic pathway have not yet been investigated for an association with incident cerebrovascular diseases. METHODS: Nested within the EPIC (European Prospective Investigation Into Cancer and Nutrition)-Norfolk cohort, we established a case-control study with 480 incident cases of cerebrovascular diseases and 480 controls matched by age, sex, and year of baseline examination (1993-1997). Using baseline plasma samples, we assayed sulfur-containing compounds including methionine, homocysteine, cystathionine, cysteine, glutathione, and taurine with liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry. We examined the association of concentrations of each of the compounds and the ratio of methionine to homocysteine (representing activity of one-carbon metabolism) with risk of incident cerebrovascular diseases, adjusted for potential confounders. RESULTS: Plasma methionine and the methionine/homocysteine ratio were inversely associated with risk of cerebrovascular diseases, with odds ratios per 1 SD of 0.83 (95% CI, 0.72-0.96) and 0.82 (95% CI, 0.71-0.95), respectively. The association of methionine remained significant after adjustment for homocysteine. None of the other examined compounds was significantly associated with incident cerebrovascular diseases. CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest that greater availability of methionine, an essential amino acid, may play a role in the prevention of cerebrovascular diseases and explain the previously recognized link between elevated homocysteine and stroke. Further research is needed to determine causation and the potential of circulating methionine as a target in cerebrovascular disease prevention.

Metabolic perturbations prior to hepatocellular carcinoma diagnosis: Findings from a prospective observational cohort study.

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development entails changes in liver metabolism. Current knowledge on metabolic perturbations in HCC is derived mostly from case-control designs, with sparse information from prospective cohorts. Our objective was to apply comprehensive metabolite profiling to detect metabolites whose serum concentrations are associated with HCC development, using biological samples from within the prospective European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort (>520 000 participants), where we identified 129 HCC cases matched 1:1 to controls. We conducted high-resolution untargeted liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry-based metabolomics on serum samples collected at recruitment prior to cancer diagnosis. Multivariable conditional logistic regression was applied controlling for dietary habits, alcohol consumption, smoking, body size, hepatitis infection and liver dysfunction. Corrections for multiple comparisons were applied. Of 9206 molecular features detected, 220 discriminated HCC cases from controls. Detailed feature annotation revealed 92 metabolites associated with HCC risk, of which 14 were unambiguously identified using pure reference standards. Positive HCC-risk associations were observed for N1-acetylspermidine, isatin, p-hydroxyphenyllactic acid, tyrosine, sphingosine, l,l-cyclo(leucylprolyl), glycochenodeoxycholic acid, glycocholic acid and 7-methylguanine. Inverse risk associations were observed for retinol, dehydroepiandrosterone sulfate, glycerophosphocholine, γ-carboxyethyl hydroxychroman and creatine. Discernible differences for these metabolites were observed between cases and controls up to 10 years prior to diagnosis. Our observations highlight the diversity of metabolic perturbations involved in HCC development and replicate previous observations (metabolism of bile acids, amino acids and phospholipids) made in Asian and Scandinavian populations. These findings emphasize the role of metabolic pathways associated with steroid metabolism and immunity and specific dietary and environmental exposures in HCC development.

Plasma trimethylamine N-oxide (TMAO) levels predict future risk of coronary artery disease in apparently healthy individuals in the EPIC-Norfolk prospective population study.

BACKGROUND: Recent studies show a mechanistic link between gut microbiota-dependent formation of the atherosclerosis- and thrombosis-promoting metabolite trimethylamine N-oxide (TMAO) and cardiovascular disease (CVD). The clinical utility of TMAO in apparently healthy subjects for predicting incident CVD risks is unclear. METHODS AND RESULTS: In the EPIC-Norfolk community-based study, we examined baseline fasting levels of TMAO and two of its nutrient precursors, choline and betaine, in a case:control design study comparing apparently European healthy middle-aged participants who subsequently develop CVD (Cases, n = 908) vs those who did not (Controls, n = 1,273) over an ensuing average follow-up period of 8 years. In participants who developed CVD vs controls, higher plasma TMAO (3.70 [IQR 2.50-6.41]µM vs 3.25 [IQR 2.19-52,1.15]µM; P < .001) and choline levels (9.09 [IQR 7.87-10.53]µM vs 8.89 [IQR 7.66-10.13]µM; P = .001) were observed. Following adjustments for traditional risk factors, elevated TMAO (adjusted odds ratio (OR) 1.58 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.21-2.06], P < .001) and choline levels (adjusted OR 1.31 [95%CI 1.00-1.72], P < .05) remained predictive of incident CVD development. The clinical prognostic utility of TMAO remained significant and essentially unchanged regardless of the level of cutoff chosen between 1.5 uM (10%ile) to 10.5 uM (90%ile). CONCLUSION: In apparently healthy participants of the community-based middle-aged EPIC-Norfolk population, elevated plasma levels of the gut microbe-dependent metabolite TMAO, and its nutrient precursor choline, predict incident risk for CVD development independent of traditional risk factors.

Alcohol Consumption and Incident Cataract Surgery in Two Large UK Cohorts.

PURPOSE: To examine the association of alcohol consumption and type of alcoholic beverage with incident cataract surgery in 2 large cohorts. DESIGN: Longitudinal, observational study. PARTICIPANTS: We included 469 387 participants of UK Biobank with a mean age of 56 years and 23 162 participants of European Prospective Investigation of Cancer (EPIC)-Norfolk with a mean age of 59 years. METHODS: Self-reported alcohol consumption at baseline was ascertained by a touchscreen questionnaire in UK Biobank and a food-frequency questionnaire in EPIC-Norfolk. Cases were defined as participants undergoing cataract surgery in either eye as ascertained via data linkage to National Health Service procedure statistics. We excluded participants with cataract surgery up to 1 year after the baseline assessment visit or those with self-reported cataract at baseline. Cox proportional hazards models were used to examine the associations of alcohol consumption with incident cataract surgery, adjusted for age, sex, ethnicity, Townsend deprivation index, body mass index (BMI), smoking, and diabetes status. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Incident cataract surgery. RESULTS: There were 19 011 (mean cohort follow-up of 95 months) and 4573 (mean cohort follow-up of 193 months) incident cases of cataract surgery in UK Biobank and EPIC-Norfolk, respectively. Compared with nondrinkers, drinkers were less likely to undergo cataract surgery in UK Biobank (hazard ratio [HR], 0.89; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.85-0.93) and EPIC-Norfolk (HR, 0.90; 95% CI, 0.84-0.97) after adjusting for covariables. Among alcohol consumers, greater alcohol consumption was associated with a reduced risk of undergoing cataract surgery in EPIC-Norfolk (P < 0.001), whereas a U-shaped association was observed in the UK Biobank. Compared with nondrinkers, subgroup analysis by type of alcohol beverage showed the strongest protective association with wine consumption; the risk of incident cataract surgery was 23% and 14% lower among those in the highest category of wine consumption in EPIC-Norfolk and UK Biobank, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest a lower risk of undergoing cataract surgery with low to moderate alcohol consumption. The association was particularly apparent with wine consumption. We cannot exclude the possibility of residual confounding, and further studies are required to determine whether this association is causal in nature.

Fracture Incidence and the Relevance of Dietary and Lifestyle Factors Differ in the United Kingdom and Hong Kong: An International Comparison of Longitudinal Cohort Study Data.

Geographic variation in fracture risk may be due to divergent profiles of dietary, lifestyle, and other risk factors between populations. We investigated differences in fracture rates between two older-population cohorts: the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) Norfolk cohort (n = 7732) in the United Kingdom (UK), and the Mr and Ms Os cohort (n = 3956) in Hong Kong (HK). Data were collected by questionnaires, laboratory assessments, and hospital records. Incidence of hip, spine, and wrist fractures in the two cohorts was calculated and multivariable regression was used to explore variables important to fracture risk. Total hip, spine, and wrist fracture incidence was higher in the UK vs HK for women (13.70 vs 8.76 per 1000 person-years; p < 0.001), but not men (5.95 vs 5.37 per 1000 person-years; p = 0.337), and the proportions of different fractures also varied between cohorts (p < 0.001). Hip fracture was the most common UK fracture (accounting for 56.8% fractures in men and 52.6% in women), while wrist fracture was most common in HK (42.9% in men and 57.9% in women). The major contributor to total fracture risk in multivariable regression models of both cohorts and sexes, was age; with BMI also an important contributor to fracture risk HK men and UK women. The distribution of factors relevant to fracture risk, and the rates of different fractures, varied significantly between UK and HK cohorts. However, the importance of each factor in contributing to fracture risk was similar between the cohorts. The differences in fracture rates suggest targeted approaches may be required when developing interventions and public health recommendations to reduce the burden of osteoporosis in these two countries.

Association between serum secretory phospholipase A2 and risk of ischaemic stroke.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Previous literature has demonstrated an association between high serum levels of type II secretory phospholipase A2 (sPLA2) concentration and an increased risk of coronary artery disease. However, such association has not been established in terms of ischaemic stroke risk. The aim was to evaluate the association between both sPLA2 concentration and activity as continuous variables with risk of future ischaemic stroke. METHODS: A nested case-control study was conducted using data from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer-Norfolk study. Cases (n = 145) in the current study were participants who developed ischaemic stroke during follow-up, with controls (n = 290) matched in a 2:1 ratio based on age and sex. Statistical analyses were performed using SPSS (version 25.0) software. Logistic regression was used to determine odds ratios (OR) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) for ischaemic stroke. RESULTS: After adjusting for a wide array of cardiovascular confounders, sPLA2 activity was found to be associated with an increased risk of ischaemic stroke using both multiple imputations with chained equations and complete case analysis: OR 1.20 (95% CI 1.01-1.43) and OR 1.23 (95% CI 1.01-1.49), respectively. However, sPLA2 concentration was not found to be associated with increased risk of ischaemic stroke. CONCLUSIONS: The activity of sPLA2, but not sPLA2 concentration, is associated with an increased risk of future ischaemic stroke. This finding may be significant in risk group stratification, allowing targeted prophylactic treatment, or the development of novel therapeutic agents.

Calcium intake, calcium supplementation and cardiovascular disease and mortality in the British population: EPIC-norfolk prospective cohort study and meta-analysis.

The role of dietary calcium in cardiovascular disease prevention is unclear. We aimed to determine the association between calcium intake and incident cardiovascular disease and mortality. Data were extracted from the European Prospective Investigation of Cancer, Norfolk (EPIC-Norfolk). Multivariable Cox regressions analysed associations between calcium intake (dietary and supplemental) and cardiovascular disease (myocardial infarction, stroke, heart failure, aortic stenosis, peripheral vascular disease) and mortality (cardiovascular and all-cause). The results of this study were pooled with those from published prospective cohort studies in a meta-analsyis, stratifying by average calcium intake using a 700 mg/day threshold. A total of 17,968 participants aged 40-79 years were followed up for a median of 20.36 years (20.32-20.38). Compared to the first quintile of calcium intake (< 770 mg/day), intakes between 771 and 926 mg/day (second quintile) and 1074-1254 mg/day (fourth quintile) were associated with reduced all-cause mortality (HR 0.91 (0.83-0.99) and 0.85 (0.77-0.93), respectively) and cardiovascular mortality [HR 0.95 (0.87-1.04) and 0.93 (0.83-1.04)]. Compared to the first quintile of calcium intake, second, third, fourth, but not fifth quintiles were associated with fewer incident strokes: respective HR 0.84 (0.72-0.97), 0.83 (0.71-0.97), 0.78 (0.66-0.92) and 0.95 (0.78-1.15). The meta-analysis results suggest that high levels of calcium intake were associated with decreased all-cause mortality, but not cardiovascular mortality, regardless of average calcium intake. Calcium supplementation was associated with cardiovascular and all-cause mortality amongst women, but not men. Moderate dietary calcium intake may protect against cardiovascular and all-cause mortality and incident stroke. Calcium supplementation may reduce mortality in women.

Baseline anticholinergic burden from medications predicts poorer baseline and long-term health-related quality of life in 16 675 men and women of EPIC-Norfolk prospective population-based cohort study.

PURPOSE: Previous studies investigating the association between anticholinergic burden (ACB) and health-related quality of life (HRQoL) showed conflicting results and focused on older adults or specific patient groups only. METHODS: Participants from the European Prospective Investigation of Cancer-Norfolk study were divided into three groups according to their ACB from medications at baseline, representing ACB scores of 0, 1 and ≥2. Outcomes of interest were the physical and mental component summary scores (PCS and MCS) of the Short Form-36, collected at 18 months from the baseline and again after a mean 13 years of follow-up. Linear regression and logistic regression for cross-sectional and longitudinal associations between ACB and HRQoL were constructed adjusting for potential confounders. RESULTS: A total of 16 675 participants, mean age 58.9 ± 9.1 years (55.6% female) and 7133 participants, mean age at follow-up 69.1 ± 8.7 years (56.8% female), were included in the cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses, respectively. In cross-sectional analysis, higher anticholinergic burden was associated with higher odds of being in the lowest quartile of PCS (ACB = 1; OR, 1.85[1.64, 2.09] and ACB ≥ 2:2.19[1.85, 2.58] and MCS (ACB = 1:1.47[1.30, 1.66] and ACB ≥ 2:1.68[1.42, 1.98]). In longitudinal analysis, higher anticholinergic burden was similarly associated with higher odds of being in the lowest quartile of PCS (ACB = 1:1.56[1.24, 1.95] and ACB ≥ 2:1.48[1.07, 2.03]) compared with ACB 0 group. The association with MCS scores did not reach statistical significance. CONCLUSION: The use of anticholinergic medications is associated with both short and long-term poorer physical functions but association with mental functioning appears more short-term.

Improved cardiovascular risk prediction using targeted plasma proteomics in primary prevention.

AIMS: In the era of personalized medicine, it is of utmost importance to be able to identify subjects at the highest cardiovascular (CV) risk. To date, single biomarkers have failed to markedly improve the estimation of CV risk. Using novel technology, simultaneous assessment of large numbers of biomarkers may hold promise to improve prediction. In the present study, we compared a protein-based risk model with a model using traditional risk factors in predicting CV events in the primary prevention setting of the European Prospective Investigation (EPIC)-Norfolk study, followed by validation in the Progressione della Lesione Intimale Carotidea (PLIC) cohort. METHODS AND RESULTS: Using the proximity extension assay, 368 proteins were measured in a nested case-control sample of 822 individuals from the EPIC-Norfolk prospective cohort study and 702 individuals from the PLIC cohort. Using tree-based ensemble and boosting methods, we constructed a protein-based prediction model, an optimized clinical risk model, and a model combining both. In the derivation cohort (EPIC-Norfolk), we defined a panel of 50 proteins, which outperformed the clinical risk model in the prediction of myocardial infarction [area under the curve (AUC) 0.754 vs. 0.730; P < 0.001] during a median follow-up of 20 years. The clinically more relevant prediction of events occurring within 3 years showed an AUC of 0.732 using the clinical risk model and an AUC of 0.803 for the protein model (P < 0.001). The predictive value of the protein panel was confirmed to be superior to the clinical risk model in the validation cohort (AUC 0.705 vs. 0.609; P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: In a primary prevention setting, a proteome-based model outperforms a model comprising clinical risk factors in predicting the risk of CV events. Validation in a large prospective primary prevention cohort is required to address the value for future clinical implementation in CV prevention.

Prediction of individualized lifetime benefit from cholesterol lowering, blood pressure lowering, antithrombotic therapy, and smoking cessation in apparently healthy people.

AIMS: The benefit an individual can expect from preventive therapy varies based on risk-factor burden, competing risks, and treatment duration. We developed and validated the LIFEtime-perspective CardioVascular Disease (LIFE-CVD) model for the estimation of individual-level 10 years and lifetime treatment-effects of cholesterol lowering, blood pressure lowering, antithrombotic therapy, and smoking cessation in apparently healthy people. METHODS AND RESULTS: Model development was conducted in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (n = 6715) using clinical predictors. The model consists of two complementary Fine and Gray competing-risk adjusted left-truncated subdistribution hazard functions: one for hard cardiovascular disease (CVD)-events, and one for non-CVD mortality. Therapy-effects were estimated by combining the functions with hazard ratios from preventive therapy trials. External validation was performed in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (n = 9250), Heinz Nixdorf Recall (n = 4177), and the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition-Netherlands (n = 25 833), and Norfolk (n = 23 548) studies. Calibration of the LIFE-CVD model was good and c-statistics were 0.67-0.76. The output enables the comparison of short-term vs. long-term therapy-benefit. In two people aged 45 and 70 with otherwise identical risk-factors, the older patient has a greater 10-year absolute risk reduction (11.3% vs. 1.0%) but a smaller gain in life-years free of CVD (3.4 vs. 4.5 years) from the same therapy. The model was developed into an interactive online calculator available via www.U-Prevent.com. CONCLUSION: The model can accurately estimate individual-level prognosis and treatment-effects in terms of improved 10-year risk, lifetime risk, and life-expectancy free of CVD. The model is easily accessible and can be used to facilitate personalized-medicine and doctor-patient communication.

The associations of major foods and fibre with risks of ischaemic and haemorrhagic stroke: a prospective study of 418 329 participants in the EPIC cohort across nine European countries.

AIM: To investigate the associations between major foods and dietary fibre with subtypes of stroke in a large prospective cohort. METHODS AND RESULTS: We analysed data on 418 329 men and women from nine European countries, with an average of 12.7 years of follow-up. Diet was assessed using validated country-specific questionnaires which asked about habitual intake over the past year, calibrated using 24-h recalls. Multivariable-adjusted Cox regressions were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) for ischaemic and haemorrhagic stroke associated with consumption of red and processed meat, poultry, fish, dairy foods, eggs, cereals, fruit and vegetables, legumes, nuts and seeds, and dietary fibre. For ischaemic stroke (4281 cases), lower risks were observed with higher consumption of fruit and vegetables combined (HR; 95% CI per 200 g/day higher intake, 0.87; 0.82-0.93, P-trend < 0.001), dietary fibre (per 10 g/day, 0.77; 0.69-0.86, P-trend < 0.001), milk (per 200 g/day, 0.95; 0.91-0.99, P-trend = 0.02), yogurt (per 100 g/day, 0.91; 0.85-0.97, P-trend = 0.004), and cheese (per 30 g/day, 0.88; 0.81-0.97, P-trend = 0.008), while higher risk was observed with higher red meat consumption which attenuated when adjusted for the other statistically significant foods (per 50 g/day, 1.07; 0.96-1.20, P-trend = 0.20). For haemorrhagic stroke (1430 cases), higher risk was associated with higher egg consumption (per 20 g/day, 1.25; 1.09-1.43, P-trend = 0.002). CONCLUSION: Risk of ischaemic stroke was inversely associated with consumption of fruit and vegetables, dietary fibre, and dairy foods, while risk of haemorrhagic stroke was positively associated with egg consumption. The apparent differences in the associations highlight the importance of examining ischaemic and haemorrhagic stroke subtypes separately.

Autoimmunity plays a role in the onset of diabetes after 40 years of age.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Type 1 and type 2 diabetes differ with respect to pathophysiological factors such as beta cell function, insulin resistance and phenotypic appearance, but there may be overlap between the two forms of diabetes. However, there are relatively few prospective studies that have characterised the relationship between autoimmunity and incident diabetes. We investigated associations of antibodies against the 65 kDa isoform of GAD (GAD65) with type 1 diabetes and type 2 diabetes genetic risk scores and incident diabetes in adults in European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-InterAct, a case-cohort study nested in the EPIC cohort. METHODS: GAD65 antibodies were analysed in EPIC participants (over 40 years of age and free of known diabetes at baseline) by radioligand binding assay in a random subcohort (n = 15,802) and in incident diabetes cases (n = 11,981). Type 1 diabetes and type 2 diabetes genetic risk scores were calculated. Associations between GAD65 antibodies and incident diabetes were estimated using Prentice-weighted Cox regression. RESULTS: GAD65 antibody positivity at baseline was associated with development of diabetes during a median follow-up time of 10.9 years (HR for GAD65 antibody positive vs negative 1.78; 95% CI 1.43, 2.20) after adjustment for sex, centre, physical activity, smoking status and education. The genetic risk score for type 1 diabetes but not type 2 diabetes was associated with GAD65 antibody positivity in both the subcohort (OR per SD genetic risk 1.24; 95% CI 1.03, 1.50) and incident cases (OR 1.97; 95% CI 1.72, 2.26) after adjusting for age and sex. The risk of incident diabetes in those in the top tertile of the type 1 diabetes genetic risk score who were also GAD65 antibody positive was 3.23 (95% CI 2.10, 4.97) compared with all other individuals, suggesting that 1.8% of incident diabetes in adults was attributable to this combination of risk factors. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Our study indicates that incident diabetes in adults has an element of autoimmune aetiology. Thus, there might be a reason to re-evaluate the present subclassification of diabetes in adulthood.

Consumption of Meat, Fish, Dairy Products, and Eggs and Risk of Ischemic Heart Disease.

BACKGROUND: There is uncertainty about the relevance of animal foods to the pathogenesis of ischemic heart disease (IHD). We examined meat, fish, dairy products, and eggs and risk for IHD in the pan-European EPIC cohort (European Prospective Investigation Into Cancer and Nutrition). METHODS: In this prospective study of 409 885 men and women in 9 European countries, diet was assessed with validated questionnaires and calibrated with 24-hour recalls. Lipids and blood pressure were measured in a subsample. During a mean of 12.6 years of follow-up, 7198 participants had a myocardial infarction or died of IHD. The relationships of animal foods with risk were examined with Cox regression with adjustment for other animal foods and relevant covariates. RESULTS: The hazard ratio (HR) for IHD was 1.19 (95% CI, 1.06-1.33) for a 100-g/d increment in intake of red and processed meat, and this remained significant after exclusion of the first 4 years of follow-up (HR, 1.25 [95% CI, 1.09-1.42]). Risk was inversely associated with intakes of yogurt (HR, 0.93 [95% CI, 0.89-0.98] per 100-g/d increment), cheese (HR, 0.92 [95% CI, 0.86-0.98] per 30-g/d increment), and eggs (HR, 0.93 [95% CI, 0.88-0.99] per 20-g/d increment); the associations with yogurt and eggs were attenuated and nonsignificant after exclusion of the first 4 years of follow-up. Risk was not significantly associated with intakes of poultry, fish, or milk. In analyses modeling dietary substitutions, replacement of 100 kcal/d from red and processed meat with 100 kcal/d from fatty fish, yogurt, cheese, or eggs was associated with ≈20% lower risk of IHD. Consumption of red and processed meat was positively associated with serum non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol concentration and systolic blood pressure, and consumption of cheese was inversely associated with serum non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol. CONCLUSIONS: Risk for IHD was positively associated with consumption of red and processed meat and inversely associated with consumption of yogurt, cheese, and eggs, although the associations with yogurt and eggs may be influenced by reverse causation bias. It is not clear whether the associations with red and processed meat and cheese reflect causality, but they were consistent with the associations of these foods with plasma non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and for red and processed meat with systolic blood pressure, which could mediate such effects.

Effect of Monthly High-Dose Vitamin D Supplementation on Acute Respiratory Infections in Older Adults: A Randomized Controlled Trial.

BACKGROUND: Although adults with low vitamin D status are at increased risk of acute respiratory infection (ARI), randomized controlled trials of vitamin D supplementation have provided inconsistent results. METHODS: We performed a randomized, double-blinded, placebo-controlled trial of 5110 adults aged 50-84 years. In 2011-2012, participants were randomized to an initial oral dose of 200 000 IU vitamin D3 followed by 100 000 IU monthly (n = 2558) or placebo (n = 2552) until late 2013 (median follow-up, 1.6 years). Participants reported upper and lower ARIs on monthly questionnaires. Cox models analyzed time to first ARI (upper or lower) by treatment group. RESULTS: Participants' mean age was 66 years and 58% were male; 83% were of European/other ethnicity, with the rest Maori, Polynesian, or South Asian. Mean (SD) baseline blood 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] level was 63 (24) nmol/L; 25% were <50 nmol/L. In a random sample (n = 441), vitamin D supplementation increased mean 25(OH)D to 135 nmol/L at 3 years, while those on placebo remained at 63 nmol/L. During follow-up, 3737 participants reported ≥1 ARI: 74.1% in the vitamin D group versus 73.7% in the placebo group. The hazard ratio for vitamin D compared with placebo was 1.01 (95% CI, 0.94, 1.07). Similar results were seen in most subgroups, including those with baseline 25(OH)D <50 nmol/L and in analyses of the upper/lower components of the ARI outcome. CONCLUSIONS: Monthly high-dose vitamin D supplementation does not prevent ARI in older adults with a low prevalence of profound vitamin D deficiency at baseline. Whether effects of daily or weekly dosing differ requires further study. CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION: Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry, identifier ACTRN12611000402943.