Prevention of Typhoid by Vi Conjugate Vaccine and Achievable Improvements in Household Water, Sanitation, and Hygiene: Evidence From a Cluster-Randomized Trial in Dhaka, Bangladesh.

BACKGROUND: Typhoid fever contributes to approximately 135 000 deaths annually. Achievable improvements in household water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) combined with vaccination using typhoid conjugate vaccines (TCVs) may be an effective preventive strategy. However, little is known about how improved WASH and vaccination interact to lower the risk of typhoid. METHODS: A total of 61 654 urban Bangladeshi children aged 9 months to <16 years, residing in 150 clusters with a baseline population of 205 760 residents, were randomized 1:1 by cluster to Vi-tetanus toxoid TCV or Japanese encephalitis (JE) vaccine. Surveillance for blood culture-confirmed typhoid fever was conducted over 2 years. Existing household WASH status was assessed at baseline as Better or Not Better using previously validated criteria. The reduction in typhoid risk among all residents associated with living in TCV clusters, Better WASH households, or both was evaluated using mixed-effects Poisson regression models. RESULTS: The adjusted reduced risk of typhoid among all residents living in the clusters assigned to TCV was 55% (95% confidence interval [CI], 43%-65%; P < .001), and that of living in Better WASH households, regardless of cluster, was 37% (95% CI, 24%-48%; P < .001). The highest risk of typhoid was observed in persons living in households with Not Better WASH in the JE clusters. In comparison with these persons, those living in households with Better WASH in the TCV clusters had an adjusted reduced risk of 71% (95% CI, 59%-80%; P < .001). CONCLUSIONS: Implementation of TCV programs combined with achievable and culturally acceptable household WASH practices were independently associated with a significant reduction in typhoid risk. CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION: ISRCTN11643110.

Can Existing Improvements of Water, Sanitation, and Hygiene (WASH) in Urban Slums Reduce the Burden of Typhoid Fever in These Settings?

BACKGROUND: Sustained investments in water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) have lagged in resource-poor settings; incremental WASH improvements may, nonetheless, prevent diseases such as typhoid in disease-endemic populations. METHODS: Using prospective data from a large cohort in urban Kolkata, India, we evaluated whether baseline WASH variables predicted typhoid risk in a training subpopulation (n = 28 470). We applied a machine learning algorithm to the training subset to create a composite, dichotomous (good, not good) WASH variable based on 4 variables, and evaluated sensitivity and specificity of this variable in a validation subset (n = 28 470). We evaluated in Cox regression models whether residents of "good" WASH households experienced a lower typhoid risk after controlling for potential confounders. We constructed virtual clusters (radius 50 m) surrounding each household to evaluate whether a prevalence of good WASH practices modified the typhoid risk in central household members. RESULTS: Good WASH practices were associated with protection in analyses of all households (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.57; 95% confidence interval [CI], .37-.90; P = .015). This protection was evident in persons ≥5 years old at baseline (HR = 0.47; 95% CI, .34-.93; P = .005) and was suggestive, though not statistically significant, in younger age groups (HR = 0.61; 95% CI, .27-1.38; P = .235). The level of surrounding household good WASH coverage was also associated with protection (HR = 0.988; 95% CI, .979-.996; P = .004, for each percent coverage increase). However, collinearity between household WASH and WASH coverage prevented an assessment of their independent predictive contributions. CONCLUSIONS: In this typhoid-endemic setting, natural variation in household WASH was associated with typhoid risk. If replicated elsewhere, these findings suggest that WASH improvements may enhance typhoid control, short of major infrastructural investments.

Safety of a bivalent, killed, whole-cell oral cholera vaccine in pregnant women in Bangladesh: evidence from a randomized placebo-controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Cholera increases the risk of harmful effects on foetuses. We prospectively followed pregnant women unaware of their pregnancy status who received a study agent in a clinical trial evaluating the association between exposure to an oral cholera vaccine (OCV) and foetal survival. METHODS: Study participants were selected from a randomized placebo-controlled trial conducted in Dhaka, Bangladesh. The vaccination campaign was conducted between January 10 and February 4, 2014. We enrolled women who were exposed to an OCV or placebo during pregnancy (Cohort 1) and women who were pregnant after the vaccination was completed (Cohort 2). Our primary endpoint was pregnancy loss (spontaneous miscarriage or stillbirth), and the secondary endpoints were preterm delivery and low birth weight. We employed a log-binomial regression to calculate the relative risk of having adverse outcomes among OCV recipients compared to that among placebo recipients. RESULT: There were 231 OCV and 234 placebo recipients in Cohort 1 and 277 OCV and 299 placebo recipients in Cohort 2. In Cohort 1, the incidence of pregnancy loss was 113/1000 and 115/1000 among OCV and placebo recipients, respectively. The adjusted relative risk for pregnancy loss was 0.97 (95% CI: 0.58-1.61; p = 0.91) in Cohort 1. We did not observe any variation in the risk of pregnancy loss between the two cohorts. The risks for preterm delivery and low birth weight were not significantly different between the groups in both cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: Our study provides additional evidence that exposure to an OCV during pregnancy does not increase the risk of pregnancy loss, preterm delivery, or low birth weight, suggesting that pregnant women in cholera-affected regions should not be excluded in a mass vaccination campaign. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The study is registered at ( http://clinicaltrials.gov ). Identifier: NCT02027207 .

Urine IP-10 as a biomarker of therapeutic response in patients with active pulmonary tuberculosis.

BACKGROUND: Prior to clinical trials of new TB drugs or therapeutic vaccines, it is necessary to develop monitoring tools to predict treatment outcomes in TB patients. Urine interferon gamma inducible protein 10 (IP-10) is a potential biomarker of treatment response in chronic hepatitis C virus infection and lung diseases, including tuberculosis. In this study, we assessed IP-10 levels in urine samples from patients with active TB at diagnosis, during treatment, and at completion, and compared these with levels in serum samples collected in parallel from matched patients to determine whether urine IP-10 can be used to monitor treatment response in patients with active TB. METHODS: IP-10 was measured using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays in urine and serum samples collected concomitantly from 23 patients with active TB and 21 healthy adults (44 total individuals). The Mann-Whitney U test and Wilcoxon matched-pairs signed rank test were used for comparisons among healthy controls and patients at three time points, and LOESS regression was used for longitudinal data. RESULTS: The levels of IP-10 in urine increased significantly after 2 months of treatment (P = 0.0163), but decreased by the completion of treatment (P = 0.0035). Serum IP-10 levels exhibited a similar trend, but did not increase significantly after 2 months of treatment in patients with active TB. CONCLUSIONS: Unstimulated IP-10 in urine can be used as a biomarker to monitor treatment response in patients with active pulmonary TB.

Influence of maternal and socioeconomic factors on breast milk fatty acid composition in urban, low-income families.

The lipid composition of breast milk may have a significant impact on early infant growth and cognitive development. Comprehensive breast milk data is lacking from low-income populations in the Indian subcontinent impeding assessment of deficiencies and limiting development of maternal nutritional interventions. A single breast milk specimen was collected within 6 weeks postpartum from two low-income maternal cohorts of exclusively breastfed infants, from Dhaka, Bangladesh (n = 683) and Kolkata, India (n = 372) and assayed for percentage composition of 26 fatty acids. Mature milk (>15 days) in Dhaka (n = 99) compared to Kolkata (n = 372) was higher in total saturated fatty acid (SFA; mean 48% vs. 44%) and disproportionately lower in ω3-polyunsaturated fatty acid (PUFA), hence the ω6- and ω3-PUFA ratio in Dhaka were almost double the value in Kolkata. In both sites, after adjusting for days of lactation, increased maternal education was associated with decreased SFA and PUFA, and increasing birth order or total pregnancies was associated with decreasing ω6-PUFA or ω3-PUFA by a factor of 0.95 for each birth and pregnancy. In Dhaka, household prosperity was associated with decreased SFA and PUFA and increased ω6- and ω3-PUFA. Maternal height was associated with increased SFA and PUFA in Kolkata (1% increase per 1 cm), but body mass index showed no independent association with either ratio in either cohort. In summary, the socioeconomic factors of maternal education and household prosperity were associated with breast milk composition, although prosperity may only be important in higher cost of living communities. Associated maternal biological factors were height and infant birth order, but not adiposity. Further study is needed to elucidate the underlying mechanisms of these effects.

Potential for Controlling Cholera Using a Ring Vaccination Strategy: Re-analysis of Data from a Cluster-Randomized Clinical Trial.

INTRODUCTION: Vaccinating a buffer of individuals around a case (ring vaccination) has the potential to target those who are at highest risk of infection, reducing the number of doses needed to control a disease. We explored the potential vaccine effectiveness (VE) of oral cholera vaccines (OCVs) for such a strategy. METHODS AND FINDINGS: This analysis uses existing data from a cluster-randomized clinical trial in which OCV or placebo was given to 71,900 participants in Kolkata, India, from 27 July to 10 September 2006. Cholera surveillance was then conducted on 144,106 individuals living in the study area, including trial participants, for 5 y following vaccination. First, we explored the risk of cholera among contacts of cholera patients, and, second, we measured VE among individuals living within 25 m of cholera cases between 8 and 28 d after onset of the index case. For the first analysis, individuals living around each index case identified during the 5-y period were assembled using a ring to define cohorts of individuals exposed to cholera index cases. An index control without cholera was randomly selected for each index case from the same population, matched by age group, and individuals living around each index control were assembled using a ring to define cohorts not exposed to cholera cases. Cholera attack rates among the exposed and non-exposed cohorts were compared using different distances from the index case/control to define the rings and different time frames to define the period at risk. For the VE analysis, the exposed cohorts were further stratified according to the level of vaccine coverage into high and low coverage strata. Overall VE was assessed by comparing the attack rates between high and low vaccine coverage strata irrespective of individuals' vaccination status, and indirect VE was assessed by comparing the attack rates among unvaccinated members between high and low vaccine coverage strata. Cholera risk among the cohort exposed to cholera cases was 5-11 times higher than that among the cohort not exposed to cholera cases. The risk gradually diminished with an increase in distance and time. The overall and indirect VE measured between 8 and 28 d after exposure to a cholera index case during the first 2 y was 91% (95% CI 62%-98%) and 93% (95% CI 44%-99%), respectively. VE persisted for 5 y after vaccination and was similar whether the index case was a young child (<5 y) or was older. Of note, this study was a reanalysis of a cholera vaccine trial that used two doses; thus, a limitation of the study relates to the assumption that a single dose, if administered quickly, will induce a similar level of total and indirect protection over the short term as did two doses. CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest that high-level protection can be achieved if individuals living close to cholera cases are living in a high coverage ring. Since this was an observational study including participants who had received two doses of vaccine (or placebo) in the clinical trial, further studies are needed to determine whether a ring vaccination strategy, in which vaccine is given quickly to those living close to a case, is feasible and effective. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00289224.

Comparison of immune responses to a killed bivalent whole cell oral cholera vaccine between endemic and less endemic settings.

Studies on safety, immunogenicity and efficacy of the killed, bivalent whole cell oral cholera vaccine (Shanchol) have been conducted in historically endemic settings of Asia. Recent cholera vaccination campaigns in Haiti and Guinea have also demonstrated favourable immunogenicity and effectiveness in nonendemic outbreak settings. We performed a secondary analysis, comparing immune responses of Shanchol from two randomised controlled trials performed in an endemic and a less endemic area (Addis Ababa) during a nonoutbreak setting. While Shanchol may offer some degree of immediate protection in primed populations living in cholera endemic areas, as well as being highly immunogenic in less endemic settings, understanding the characteristics of immune responses in each of these areas is vital in determining ideal dosing strategies that offer the greatest public health impact to populations from areas with varying degrees of cholera endemicity.

Do Oral Cholera Vaccine and Water, Sanitation, and Hygiene Combine to Provide Greater Protection Against Cholera? Results From a Cluster-Randomized Trial of Oral Cholera Vaccine in Kolkata, India.

Background: Oral cholera vaccine (OCV) and incremental improvements in household water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) within cholera-endemic areas can reduce cholera risk. However, we lack empiric evaluation of their combined impact. Methods: We evaluated a cluster-randomized, placebo-controlled trial of OCV (Shanchol) in Kolkata, India. The study population included 108 777 individuals, and 106 879 nonpregnant individuals >1 year of age were eligible to receive 2 doses of OCV or placebo. We measured cholera risk in all household members assigned to OCV vs placebo and in all members of households with "Better" vs "Not Better" WASH, where WASH was classified according to validated criteria. Protection was measured by Cox proportional hazard models. Results: Residence in an OCV household was associated with protective effectiveness (PE) of 54% (95% CI, 42%-64%; P < .001) and was similar regardless of Better (PE, 57%; 95% CI, 26%-75%; P = .002) or Not Better (PE, 53%; 95% CI, 40%-64%; P < .001) household WASH. Better WASH household residence was associated with PE of 30% (95% CI, 5%-48%; P = .023) and was similar in OCV (PE, 24%; 95% CI, -26% to 54%; P = .293) and placebo (PE, 29%; 95% CI, -3% to 51%; P = .069) households. When assessed conjointly, residence in OCV households with Better WASH was associated with the greatest PE against cholera at 69% (95% CI, 49%-81%; P < .001). Conclusions: These findings suggest that the combination of a vaccine policy and improved WASH reduces cholera risk more than either would alone, although the magnitude of either intervention was not affected by the other. Future randomized trials investigating OCV and WASH interventions separately and together are recommended to further understand the interaction between OCV and WASH.

Spatial and temporal clustering of typhoid fever in an urban slum of Dhaka City: Implications for targeted typhoid vaccination.

BACKGROUND: Salmonella enterica serotype Typhi (Salmonella Typhi) causes severe and occasionally life-threatening disease, transmitted through contaminated food and water. Humans are the only reservoir, inadequate water, sanitation, and hygiene infrastructure increases risk of typhoid. High-quality data to assess spatial and temporal relationships in disease dynamics are scarce. METHODS: We analyzed data from a prospective cohort conducted in an urban slum area of Dhaka City, Bangladesh. Passive surveillance at study centers identified typhoid cases by microbiological culture. Each incident case (index case) was matched to two randomly selected index controls, and we measured typhoid incidence in the population residing in a geographically defined region surrounding each case and control. Spatial clustering was evaluated by comparing the typhoid incidence in residents of geometric rings of increasing radii surrounding the index cases and controls over 28 days. Temporal clustering was evaluated by separately measuring incidence in the first and second 14-day periods following selection. Incidence rate ratios (IRRs) were calculated using Poisson regression models. RESULTS: We evaluated 141 typhoid index cases. The overall typhoid incidence was 0.44 per 100,000 person-days (PDs) (95% CI: 0.40, 0.49). In the 28 days following selection, the highest typhoid incidence (1.2 per 100,000 PDs [95% CI: 0.8, 1.6]) was in the innermost cluster surrounding index cases. The IRR in this innermost cluster was 4.9 (95% CI: 2.4, 10.3) relative to the innermost control clusters. Neither typhoid incidence rates nor relative IRR between index case and control populations showed substantive differences in the first and second 14-day periods after selection. CONCLUSION: In the absence of routine immunization programs, geographic clustering of typhoid cases suggests a higher intensity of typhoid risk in the population immediately surrounding identified cases. Further studies are needed to understand spatial and temporal trends and to evaluate the effectiveness of targeted vaccination in disrupting typhoid transmission.

Cholera and diarrheal diseases in Cuamba District, Niassa Province, Mozambique: Systematic healthcare facility-based surveillance strengthening, characteristics of suspected cholera and diarrheal patients, and incidence of diarrheal diseases.

BACKGROUND: Mozambique is one of the countries in Africa that is continuously at risk of cholera outbreaks due to poor sanitation, hygiene, and limited access to potable water in some districts. The Mozambique Cholera Prevention and Surveillance (MOCA) project was implemented in Cuamba District, Niassa Province to prevent and control cholera outbreaks through a preemptive cholera vaccination, strengthened surveillance system for cholera and diarrheal diseases, and better understanding of cholera-related healthcare seeking behavior of local populations, which may further guide the national cholera control and prevention strategies. This article presents the surveillance component of the MOCA project. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: A prospective healthcare facility (HCF)-based surveillance of cholera and diarrheal disease was conducted in six HCFs in the District of Cuamba from March 2019 to December 2020. A systematic surveillance procedure has been put in place with capacity building in selected sentinel HCFs and a basic microbiology laboratory established on-site. Patients presenting with suspected cholera or other diarrheal symptoms were eligible for enrollment. Clinical data and rectal swab samples were collected for laboratory confirmation of Vibrio Cholerae and other pathogens. A total of 419 eligible patients from six HCFs were enrolled. The median age was 19.8 years with a similar age distribution between sentinel sites. The majority were patients who exhibited diarrhea symptoms not suspected of cholera (88.8%; n = 410). Among those, 59.2% (210/397) were female and 59.9% (235/392) were 15 years and above. There were 2 cholera cases, coming outside of the catchment area. The incidence of diarrheal diseases ranged from 40-103 per 100,000 population. No Vibrio cholerae was isolated among surveillance catchment population and Escherichia coli spp. (82/277; 29.6%) was the most common pathogen isolated. CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE: Efforts were made to strengthen the systematic surveillance of suspected cholera with standardised patient screening, enrolment, and diagnostics. The first basic microbiology laboratory in Niassa Province established in Cuamba District under the MOCA project needs to be integrated into the national network of laboratories for sustainability. No reports of laboratory confirmed cholera cases from the surveillance catchment area may be highly related to the pre-emptive oral cholera vaccine (OCV) mass vaccination campaign conducted in 2018 and the use of drugs by local populations prior to visiting the sentinel HCFs. Continued systematic cholera surveillance is needed to closely monitor the cholera endemicity and epidemics, and further evaluate the long-term impact of this vaccination. High incidence of diarrheal illnesses needs to be addressed with improved water, sanitation, and hygiene (WaSH) conditions in Cuamba District. Efforts integrated with the prioritization of prevention measures are fundamental for the control of cholera in the country.

Using Dried Blood Spots to Quantitatively Detect Anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG Antibodies by ELISA: A Validation Study.

SARS-CoV-2 serological testing is useful to determine seroprevalence, epidemiological trends, and the extent of transmission. The collection and transport of serum samples can be logistically challenging, especially in remote underserved areas. Dried blood spots (DBSs) would allow easier sample collection and logistical handling compared with standard serum collection, particularly for extensive and repeated SARS-CoV-2 serosurveys. We evaluated the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) of the IgG ELISA (Wantai, Beijing, China) using DBSs against sera for the quantitative detection of SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibody. The IgG ELISA was used to test paired sera and DBSs obtained from individuals with recent virologically confirmed COVID-19 illness and banked paired sera and DBSs collected before the COVID-19 pandemic. We found that 100/100 (100%) seropositive samples were positive using DBSs, and 193/194 (99%) seronegative samples were negative using DBSs. Compared with sera, the DBS method had a 100% sensitivity, 99% specificity, 99% PPV, and 100% NPV. Use of DBSs for SARS-CoV-2 household or population serosurveys may be considered in situations with limitations in sample collection, shipment, and storage.

Effect of single-dose, live, attenuated dengue vaccine in children with or without previous dengue on risk of subsequent, virologically confirmed dengue in Cebu, the Philippines: a longitudinal, prospective, population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: A three-dose dengue vaccine (CYD-TDV) was licensed for use in children aged 9 years and older starting in 2015 in several dengue-endemic countries. In 2016, the Philippine Department of Health implemented a dengue vaccination programme, which was discontinued because of safety concerns. We assessed the relative risk of developing virologically confirmed dengue among children who did or did not receive a single dose of CYD-TDV by previous dengue virus (DENV) infections at baseline classified as none, one, and two or more infections. METHODS: In this longitudinal, prospective, population-based cohort study, we enrolled healthy children (aged 9-14 years) residing in Bogo or Balamban, Cebu, Philippines, between May 2, and June 2, 2017, before a mass dengue vaccination campaign, via the Rural Health Unit in Bogo and three Rural Health Units in Balamban. We collected demographic information and sera for baseline DENV serostatus and conducted active surveillance for acute febrile illness. Children who developed acute febrile illness were identified, clinical data were collected, and blood was drawn for confirmation of dengue by RT-PCR. The primary outcome was the relative risk of developing virologically confirmed dengue among children who received or did not receive a single dose of CYD-TDV by DENV serostatus at baseline. FINDINGS: A single dose of CYD-TDV did not confer protection against virologically confirmed dengue in children who had none or one previous DENV infection at baseline. One dose conferred significant protection against hospital admission for virologically confirmed dengue among participants who had two or more previous DENV infections at baseline during the first 3 years (70%, 95% CI 20-88; p=0·017) and the entire follow-up period (67%, 19-87; p=0·016). INTERPRETATION: The risk of developing virologically confirmed dengue after a single dose of CYD-TDV varied by baseline DENV serostatus. Since the study assessed the effect of only a single dose, the findings cannot inform decisions on vaccination by public health officers. However, the findings have implications for children who receive an incomplete vaccination regimen and these results should prompt more detailed analyses in future trials on dengue vaccines. FUNDING: The Philippine Department of Health, Hanako Foundation, WHO, Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency, International Vaccine Institute, University of North Carolina, and US National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.

Safety and immunogenicity of the Euvichol-S oral cholera vaccine for prevention of Vibrio cholerae O1 infection in Nepal: an observer-blind, active-controlled, randomised, non-inferiority, phase 3 trial.

BACKGROUND: In October, 2017, WHO launched a strategy to eliminate cholera by 2030. A primary challenge in meeting this goal is the limited global supply capacity of oral cholera vaccine and the worsening of cholera outbreaks since 2021. To help address the current shortage of oral cholera vaccine, a WHO prequalified oral cholera vaccine, Euvichol-Plus was reformulated by reducing the number of components and inactivation methods. We aimed to evaluate the immunogenicity and safety of Euvichol-S (EuBiologics, Seoul, South Korea) compared with an active control vaccine, Shanchol (Sanofi Healthcare India, Telangana, India) in participants of various ages in Nepal. METHODS: We did an observer-blind, active-controlled, randomised, non-inferiority, phase 3 trial at four hospitals in Nepal. Eligible participants were healthy individuals aged 1-40 years without a history of cholera vaccination. Individuals with a history of hypersensitivity reactions to other preventive vaccines, severe chronic disease, previous cholera vaccination, receipt of blood or blood-derived products in the past 3 months or other vaccine within 4 weeks before enrolment, and pregnant or lactating women were excluded. Participants were randomly assigned (1:1:1:1) by block randomisation (block sizes of two, four, six, or eight) to one of four groups (groups A-D); groups C and D were stratified by age (1-5, 6-17, and 18-40 years). Participants in groups A-C were assigned to receive two 1·5 mL doses of Euvichol-S (three different lots) and participants in group D were assigned to receive the active control vaccine, Shanchol. All participants and site staff (with the exception of those who prepared and administered the study vaccines) were masked to group assignment. The primary immunogenicity endpoint was non-inferiority of immunogenicity of Euvichol-S (group C) versus Shanchol (group D) at 2 weeks after the second vaccine dose, measured by the seroconversion rate, defined as the proportion of participants who had achieved seroconversion (defined as ≥four-fold increase in V cholerae O1 Inaba and Ogawa titres compared with baseline). The primary immunogenicity endpoint was assessed in the per-protocol analysis set, which included all participants who received all their planned vaccine administrations, had no important protocol deviations, and who provided blood samples for all immunogenicity assessments. The primary safety endpoint was the number of solicited adverse events, unsolicited adverse events, and serious adverse events after each vaccine dose in all ages and each age stratum, assessed in all participants who received at least one dose of the Euvichol-S or Shanchol. Non-inferiority of Euvichol-S compared with Shanchol was shown if the lower limit of the 95% CI for the difference between the seroconversion rates in Euvichol-S group C versus Shanchol group D was above the predefined non-inferiority margin of -10%. The trial was registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04760236. FINDINGS: Between Oct 6, 2021, and Jan 19, 2022, 2529 healthy participants (1261 [49·9%] males; 1268 [50·1%] females), were randomly assigned to group A (n=330; Euvichol-S lot number ES-2002), group B (n=331; Euvichol-S ES-2003), group C (n=934; Euvichol-S ES-2004]), or group D (n=934; Shanchol). Non-inferiority of Euvichol-S versus Shanchol in seroconversion rate for both serotypes at 2 weeks after the second dose was confirmed in all ages (difference in seroconversion rate for V cholerae O1 Inaba -0·00 [95% CI -1·86 to 1·86]; for V cholerae O1 Ogawa -1·62 [-4·80 to 1·56]). Treatment-emergent adverse events were reported in 244 (9·7%) of 2529 participants in the safety analysis set, with a total of 403 events; 247 events were reported among 151 (9·5%) of 1595 Euvichol-S recipients and 156 events among 93 (10·0%) of 934 Shanchol recipients. Pyrexia was the most common adverse event in both groups (57 events among 56 [3·5%] of 1595 Euvichol-S recipients and 37 events among 35 [3·7%] of 934 Shanchol recipients). No serious adverse events were deemed to be vaccine-related. INTERPRETATION: A two-dose regimen of Euvichol-S vaccine was non-inferior to the active control vaccine, Shanchol, in terms of seroconversion rates 2 weeks after the second dose. The simplified formulation and production requirements of the Euvichol-S vaccine have the potential to increase the supply of oral cholera vaccine and reduce the gap between the current oral cholera vaccine supply and demand. FUNDING: The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. TRANSLATION: For the Nepali translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Vivax malaria and bacteraemia: a prospective study in Kolkata, India.

BACKGROUND: Falciparum malaria increases the risk for bacteraemia, whereas the relationship between vivax malaria and bacteraemia is not clear. Data from a prospective fever surveillance study in Kolkata, India were reanalysed for the potential association between Plasmodium vivax malaria and bacteraemia. METHODS: Patients of all ages presenting with fever of three days or more to a project health outpost were invited to participate. A blood film and blood culture was performed on presentation. Treatment and referral were provided according to national guidelines. The case fraction and incidence of malaria, bacteraemia, and co-infection were calculated. RESULTS: 3,371 participants were enrolled during a one-year study period, of whom 93/3,371 (2.8%) had malaria (89/93 [95.7%] Plasmodium vivax) and 256 (7.6%) bacteraemia. There were 154 malaria, 423 bacteraemia and 10 P. vivax-bacteremia coinfection episodes per 100,000/year. Among the malaria-bacteraemia co-infections, all were vivax malaria and 5/6 (83%) bacteria isolated were Gram-negative (one S. Typhi, one S. Paratyphi A, three other Gram-negative). Bacteraemia occurred in 6/89 (6.7% [95%CI: 3.1-13.9%]) of P. vivax cases versus 250/3,278 (7.6% [95% CI: 6.7-8.6%]) without Plasmodium infection (p=0.76). CONCLUSIONS: While an increased risk was not demonstrated, concomitant bacteraemia occurs frequently in vivax malaria in an area with a high background incidence of bacteraemia, and should be considered in cases of vivax malaria with severe manifestations.

Time series analysis of cholera in Matlab, Bangladesh, during 1988-2001.

The study examined the impact of in-situ climatic and marine environmental variability on cholera incidence in an endemic area of Bangladesh and developed a forecasting model for understanding the magnitude of incidence. Diarrhoea surveillance data collected between 1988 and 2001 were obtained from a field research site in Matlab, Bangladesh. Cholera cases were defined as Vibrio cholerae O1 isolated from faecal specimens of patients who sought care at treatment centres serving the Matlab population. Cholera incidence for 168 months was correlated with remotely-sensed sea-surface temperature (SST) and in-situ environmental data, including rainfall and ambient temperature. A seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model was used for determining the impact of climatic and environmental variability on cholera incidence and evaluating the ability of the model to forecast the magnitude of cholera. There were 4,157 cholera cases during the study period, with an average of 1.4 cases per 1,000 people. Since monthly cholera cases varied significantly by month, it was necessary to stabilize the variance of cholera incidence by computing the natural logarithm to conduct the analysis. The SARIMA model shows temporal clustering of cholera at one- and 12-month lags. There was a 6% increase in cholera incidence with a minimum temperature increase of one degree celsius in the current month. For increase of SST by one degree celsius, there was a 25% increase in the cholera incidence at currrent month and 18% increase in the cholera incidence at two months. Rainfall did not influenc to cause variation in cholera incidence during the study period. The model forecast the fluctuation of cholera incidence in Matlab reasonably well (Root mean square error, RMSE: 0.108). Thus, the ambient and sea-surface temperature-based model could be used in forecasting cholera outbreaks in Matlab.

Assessment of vaccine herd protection in a cluster-randomised trial of Vi conjugate vaccine against typhoid fever: results of further analysis.

Background: A cluster-randomised trial of Vi-tetanus toxoid (Vi-TT) conjugate vaccine conducted in urban Bangladeshi children found a high level of direct protection by Vi-TT but no significant vaccine herd protection. We reassessed the trial using a "fried egg" analysis to evaluate whether herd protection might have been obscured by transmission of typhoid into the clusters from the outside. Methods: A participant- and observer-blind, cluster-randomised trial was conducted between February 14, 2018 and August 12, 2019 in three wards of Mirpur, a densely populated urban area of Dhaka, Bangladesh. Children 9 months to under 16 years of age in 150 geographic clusters, which had a total of 311,289 persons present at baseline or entering during follow-up, were randomised by cluster to a single-dose of Vi-TT or Japanese encephalitis (JE) vaccine. Vi-TT protection against typhoid fever, detected at 8 treatment centres serving the study population, was compared in the original clusters for the trial, and for progressively more central subclusters ("yolks" of the "fried egg") of the cluster residents. If transmission of typhoid into the clusters had diluted observed vaccine herd protection, we hypothesised that analysis of the innermost "yolks" would reveal vaccine herd protection that was not evident in analysis of the entire clusters. The trial is registered at www.isrctn.com as ISRCTN11643110. Findings: At ≤18 months of follow-up, total vaccine effectiveness (protection of Vi-TT recipients relative to JE vaccine recipients) was 85% (95% CI: 76%, 90%); indirect effectiveness (protection of non-Vi-TT recipients in Vi-TT clusters relative to non-JE vaccine recipients in JE vaccine clusters) was 17% (95% CI: -13%, 40%); and overall effectiveness (protection of all residents in the Vi-TT clusters relative to all residents of the JE vaccine clusters) was 57% (95% CI: 44%, 66%). Analyses of subpopulations in inner 75%, 50% and 25% "yolks" of the clusters failed to reveal significant changes in any of these estimates. Interpretation: Our analysis did not reveal Vi-TT herd protection in the trial. Consideration should be given to exploring whether targeting adults as well as children with Vi-TT yields appreciable levels of vaccine herd protection. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (OPP1151153, INV-025388).

Statistical considerations on real time and extended controlled temperature conditions (ECTC) stability data analysis of vaccines.

BACKGROUND: Although maintaining vaccines in a strict cold chain has cost and logistical implications in low- and middle-income countries, only a few vaccines have obtained approval for extended controlled temperature conditions (ECTC) application, which permits the administration of vaccines after storage outside of the cold chain for a defined period. We developed a methodology to evaluate stability data and calculate minimum release potency (MRP) in support of ECTC application. METHODS: The methodology is focused on statistical considerations consisting of stability data collection, statistical analysis plan, statistical modelling, and statistical report. It uses mock stability data from a hypothetical product and may serve as a helpful guide for other products. The statistical data analysis is performed using the R program which is an open-source program and validated using the SAS software. RESULTS: We developed a stability data testing scheme that included 24 lots with six-time points for up to 24 months under real-time and real condition (RT) in the cold chain samples stored at 2-8 °C and 12 lots with six timepoints for 14 days under ECTC samples stored at 40 °C. The log-transformed stability data met the linear regression assumptions and were poolable from representative lots with no significant lot variation. The linear regression analysis model with a common slope and intercept confirmed the stable antigen content over time under RT and ECTC by the mean regression line and 95% confidence interval. Based on the fitted models and the estimated coefficients, the antigen content value of 966 was derived as the MRP under RT for 24 months followed by 14 days under ECTC. CONCLUSION: The presented framework of statistical considerations, with practical methods and R program codes to perform statistical analysis, may serve as a guide for developing the CTC data for a vaccine's stability evaluation prospectively.

Prevalence of HPV infection among Thai schoolgirls in the north-eastern provinces in 2018: implications for HPV immunization policy.

Objective: The aim of this study was to determine the prevalence of high-risk (HR) and vaccine-type human papillomavirus (HPV) infection among Thai schoolgirls who were not included in the national HPV immunization program. Methods: Cross-sectional surveys were conducted among grade 10 (15-16 years old) and grade 12 (17-18 years old) schoolgirls in two provinces of Thailand. Urine samples were collected using the Colli-PeeⓇ device from November 2018 to February 2019. The samples were initially tested using CobasⓇ 4800. Subsequently, all Cobas-positive samples and 1:1 matched Cobas-negative samples were tested by AnyplexⓇ assay. Prevalences of any HPV, any HR HPV, vaccine-type HPV, and individual HR HPV types were estimated by school grade. Results: Prevalences of any HPV and any HR HPV were 11.6% and 8.6% for grade 10, and 18.5% and 12.4% for grade 12 schoolgirls, respectively. Prevalences of bivalent vaccine-type HPV infection in grades 10 and 12 were 3.4% and 4.5%, respectively. Prevalences of quadrivalent and nonavalent vaccine-type HPV infections were 4.0%/6.6% and 6.4%/10.4% in grades 10 and 12, respectively. HPV16 was the most common type detected, followed by HPV58, 51, and 52. Circulating HR HPV types were similar between the school grades. Conclusion: A substantial burden of HR HPV infections was found among unvaccinated high school girls in Thailand.

The interplay between WASH practices and vaccination with oral cholera vaccines in protecting against cholera in urban Bangladesh: Reanalysis of a cluster-randomized trial.

The current global initiative to end Cholera by 2030 emphasizes the use of oral cholera vaccine (OCV) combined with feasible household Water-Sanitation-Hygiene (WASH) interventions. However, little is known about how improved WASH practices and behaviors and OCV interact to reduce the risk of cholera. We reanalyzed two arms of a cluster-randomized trial in urban Bangladesh, to evaluate the effectiveness of OCV given as a 2-dose regimen. One arm (30 clusters, n = 94,675) was randomized to vaccination of persons aged one year and older with OCV, and the other arm (30 clusters, n = 80,056) to no intervention. We evaluated the prevention of cholera by household WASH, classified at baseline using a previously validated rule, and OCV over 2 years of follow-up. When analyzed by assignment to OCV clusters rather than receipt of OCV, in comparison to persons living in "Not Better WASH" households in the control clusters, reduction of severe cholera (the primary outcome) was similar for persons in "Not Better WASH" households in vaccine clusters (46%, 95% CI:24,62), for persons in "Better WASH" households in the control clusters (48%, 95% CI:25,64), and for persons in "Better WASH" households in the vaccine clusters (48%, 95% CI:16,67). In contrast, when analyzed by actual receipt of a complete OCV regimen, , in comparison to persons in "Not Better WASH" households in the control clusters, protection against severe cholera increased steadily from 39% (95% CI:13,58) in residents of "Better WASH" households in the control clusters to 57% (95% CI:35,72) in vaccinated persons in "Not Better WASH" households to 63% (95% CI:21,83) in vaccinated persons in "Better WASH" households. This analysis suggests that improved household WASH and OCV received may interact to provide greater protection against cholera. However, the divergence between findings related to intent to vaccinate versus those pertaining to actual receipt of OCV underscores the need for further research on this topic.

Conducting a phase III clinical trial in children during the COVID- 19 pandemic: Experience and lessons learnt from a clinical research facility of Nepal.

Clinical trials in humans are vital to test safety and efficacy of new interventions and are accompanied with the complexity of related regulatory guidelines, stringent time frame and financial burden particularly when participants are children. Conducting clinical trials in low and middle income countries, where 90% of global diseases occur, increases the complexity as resources, infrastructures, and experience related to clinical trials may be limited in some countries. During the COVID-19 pandemic, due to multiple infection control measures such as social distancing, lock-down of the societies, and increased work load of hospital workers, conducting clinical trials seemed very challenging. Related guidelines and recommendations on clinical trials required updates to adapt the situation for ongoing clinical trials to be continued and new clinical trials to be initiated. In this review report, we described the lessons learnt through our experiences, challenges we faced, and the mitigation measures implemented as a response while conducting a phase III clinical trial on a non-COVID-19 vaccine at a government children's hospital during the COVID-19 pandemic. We hope this report will contribute in lowering the obstacles to allow the successful completion of future studies, in countries where people live with the burden of vaccine-preventable diseases.