Projected land ice contributions to twenty-first-century sea level rise.

The land ice contribution to global mean sea level rise has not yet been predicted1 using ice sheet and glacier models for the latest set of socio-economic scenarios, nor using coordinated exploration of uncertainties arising from the various computer models involved. Two recent international projects generated a large suite of projections using multiple models2-8, but primarily used previous-generation scenarios9 and climate models10, and could not fully explore known uncertainties. Here we estimate probability distributions for these projections under the new scenarios11,12 using statistical emulation of the ice sheet and glacier models. We find that limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius would halve the land ice contribution to twenty-first-century sea level rise, relative to current emissions pledges. The median decreases from 25 to 13 centimetres sea level equivalent (SLE) by 2100, with glaciers responsible for half the sea level contribution. The projected Antarctic contribution does not show a clear response to the emissions scenario, owing to uncertainties in the competing processes of increasing ice loss and snowfall accumulation in a warming climate. However, under risk-averse (pessimistic) assumptions, Antarctic ice loss could be five times higher, increasing the median land ice contribution to 42 centimetres SLE under current policies and pledges, with the 95th percentile projection exceeding half a metre even under 1.5 degrees Celsius warming. This would severely limit the possibility of mitigating future coastal flooding. Given this large range (between 13 centimetres SLE using the main projections under 1.5 degrees Celsius warming and 42 centimetres SLE using risk-averse projections under current pledges), adaptation planning for twenty-first-century sea level rise must account for a factor-of-three uncertainty in the land ice contribution until climate policies and the Antarctic response are further constrained.

New avenues for potentially seeking microbial responses to climate change beneath Antarctic ice shelves.

The signs of climate change are undeniable, and the impact of these changes on ecosystem function heavily depends on the response of microbes that underpin the food web. Antarctic ice shelf is a massive mass of floating ice that extends from the continent into the ocean, exerting a profound influence on global carbon cycles. Beneath Antarctic ice shelves, marine ice stores valuable genetic information, where marine microbial communities before the industrial revolution are archived. Here, in this proof-of-concept, by employing a combination of single-cell technologiesand metagenomics, we have been able to sequence frozen microbial DNA (≈300 years old) stored in the marine ice core B15 collected from the Filchnner-Ronne Ice Shelf. Metagenomic data indicated that Proteobacteria and Thaumarchaeota (e.g., Nitrosopumilus spp.), followed by Actinobacteria (e.g., Actinomarinales), were abundant. Remarkably, our data allow us to "travel to the past" and calibrate genomic and genetic evolutionary changes for ecologically relevant microbes and functions, such as Nitrosopumilus spp., preserved in the marine ice (≈300 years old) with those collected recently in seawater under an ice shelf (year 2017). The evolutionary divergence for the ammonia monooxygenase gene amoA involved in chemolithoautotrophy was about 0.88 amino acid and 2.8 nucleotide substitution rate per 100 sites in a century, while the accumulated rate of genomic SNPs was 2,467 per 1 Mb of genome and 100 years. Whether these evolutionary changes remained constant over the last 300 years or accelerated during post-industrial periods remains an open question that will be further elucidated. IMPORTANCE: Several efforts have been undertaken to predict the response of microbes under climate change, mainly based on short-term microcosm experiments under forced conditions. A common concern is that manipulative experiments cannot properly simulate the response of microbes to climate change, which is a long-term evolutionary process. In this proof-of-concept study with a limited sample size, we demonstrate a novel approach yet to be fully explored in science for accessing genetic information from putative past marine microbes preserved under Antarctic ice shelves before the industrial revolution. This potentially allows us estimating evolutionary changes as exemplified in our study. We advocate for gathering a more comprehensive Antarctic marine ice core data sets across various periods and sites. Such a data set would enable the establishment of a robust baseline, facilitating a better assessment of the potential effects of climate change on key genetic signatures of microbes.

Impact of paleoclimate on present and future evolution of the Greenland Ice Sheet.

Using transient climate forcing based on simulations from the Alfred Wegener Institute Earth System Model (AWI-ESM), we simulate the evolution of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) from the last interglacial (125 ka, kiloyear before present) to 2100 AD with the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM). The impact of paleoclimate, especially Holocene climate, on the present and future evolution of the GrIS is explored. Our simulations of the past show close agreement with reconstructions with respect to the recent timing of the peaks in ice volume and the climate of Greenland. The maximum and minimum ice volume at around 18-17 ka and 6-5 ka lag the respective extremes in climate by several thousand years, implying that the ice volume response of the GrIS strongly lags climatic changes. Given that Greenland's climate was getting colder from the Holocene Thermal Maximum (i.e., 8 ka) to the Pre-Industrial era, our simulation implies that the GrIS experienced growth from the mid-Holocene to the industrial era. Due to this background trend, the GrIS still gains mass until the second half of the 20th century, even though anthropogenic warming begins around 1850 AD. This is also in agreement with observational evidence showing mass loss of the GrIS does not begin earlier than the late 20th century. Our results highlight that the present evolution of the GrIS is not only controlled by the recent climate changes, but is also affected by paleoclimate, especially the relatively warm Holocene climate. We propose that the GrIS was not in equilibrium throughout the entire Holocene and that the slow response to Holocene climate needs to be represented in ice sheet simulations in order to predict ice mass loss, and therefore sea level rise, accurately.

Nanostructuring of organic-inorganic hybrid materials for distributed feedback laser resonators by two-photon polymerization.

With two-photon absorption induced polymerization arbitrary three dimensional nano- and microstructures can be patterned directly into photoresists. We report on the fabrication of a low threshold organic semiconductor distributed feedback laser using the technique of two-photon absorption induced polymerization. A surface grating with 400 nm periodicity and 40 nm height modulation was fabricated by two-photon absorption induced polymerization in the organic-inorganic hybrid material ORMOCER. With structuring several stacked layers acting as a planar basis for the nanostructure microscopic substrate tilt can be compensated simply. This enabled us to uniformly nano-structure the surface grating over an area of 200 x 200 microm(2).

Physical analysis of an Antarctic ice core-towards an integration of micro- and macrodynamics of polar ice.

Microstructures from deep ice cores reflect the dynamic conditions of the drill location as well as the thermodynamic history of the drill site and catchment area in great detail. Ice core parameters (crystal lattice-preferred orientation (LPO), grain size, grain shape), mesostructures (visual stratigraphy) as well as borehole deformation were measured in a deep ice core drilled at Kohnen Station, Dronning Maud Land (DML), Antarctica. These observations are used to characterize the local dynamic setting and its rheological as well as microstructural effects at the EDML ice core drilling site (European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica in DML). The results suggest a division of the core into five distinct sections, interpreted as the effects of changing deformation boundary conditions from triaxial deformation with horizontal extension to bedrock-parallel shear. Region 1 (uppermost approx. 450 m depth) with still small macroscopic strain is dominated by compression of bubbles and strong strain and recrystallization localization. Region 2 (approx. 450-1700 m depth) shows a girdle-type LPO with the girdle plane being perpendicular to grain elongations, which indicates triaxial deformation with dominating horizontal extension. In this region (approx. 1000 m depth), the first subtle traces of shear deformation are observed in the shape-preferred orientation (SPO) by inclination of the grain elongation. Region 3 (approx. 1700-2030 m depth) represents a transitional regime between triaxial deformation and dominance of shear, which becomes apparent in the progression of the girdle to a single maximum LPO and increasing obliqueness of grain elongations. The fully developed single maximum LPO in region 4 (approx. 2030-2385 m depth) is an indicator of shear dominance. Region 5 (below approx. 2385 m depth) is marked by signs of strong shear, such as strong SPO values of grain elongation and strong kink folding of visual layers. The details of structural observations are compared with results from a numerical ice sheet model (PISM, isotropic) for comparison of strain rate trends predicted from the large-scale geometry of the ice sheet and borehole logging data. This comparison confirms the segmentation into these depth regions and in turn provides a wider view of the ice sheet.This article is part of the themed issue 'Microdynamics of ice'.