Global increase in major tropical cyclone exceedance probability over the past four decades.

Theoretical understanding of the thermodynamic controls on tropical cyclone (TC) wind intensity, as well as numerical simulations, implies a positive trend in TC intensity in a warming world. The global instrumental record of TC intensity, however, is known to be heterogeneous in both space and time and is generally unsuitable for global trend analysis. To address this, a homogenized data record based on satellite data was previously created for the period 1982-2009. The 28-y homogenized record exhibited increasing global TC intensity trends, but they were not statistically significant at the 95% confidence level. Based on observed trends in the thermodynamic mean state of the tropical environment during this period, however, it was argued that the 28-y period was likely close to, but shorter than, the time required for a statistically significant positive global TC intensity trend to appear. Here the homogenized global TC intensity record is extended to the 39-y period 1979-2017, and statistically significant (at the 95% confidence level) increases are identified. Increases and trends are found in the exceedance probability and proportion of major (Saffir-Simpson categories 3 to 5) TC intensities, which is consistent with expectations based on theoretical understanding and trends identified in numerical simulations in warming scenarios. Major TCs pose, by far, the greatest threat to lives and property. Between the early and latter halves of the time period, the major TC exceedance probability increases by about 8% per decade, with a 95% CI of 2 to 15% per decade.

Thunderstorms Increase Mercury Wet Deposition.

Mercury (Hg) wet deposition, transfer from the atmosphere to Earth's surface by precipitation, in the United States is highest in locations and seasons with frequent deep convective thunderstorms, but it has never been demonstrated whether the connection is causal or simple coincidence. We use rainwater samples from over 800 individual precipitation events to show that thunderstorms increase Hg concentrations by 50% relative to weak convective or stratiform events of equal precipitation depth. Radar and satellite observations reveal that strong convection reaching the upper troposphere (where high atmospheric concentrations of soluble, oxidized mercury species (Hg(II)) are known to reside) produces the highest Hg concentrations in rain. As a result, precipitation meteorology, especially thunderstorm frequency and total rainfall, explains differences in Hg deposition between study sites located in the eastern United States. Assessing the fate of atmospheric mercury thus requires bridging the scales of global transport and convective precipitation.