Historical reconstruction unveils the risk of mass mortality and ecosystem collapse during pancontinental megadrought.

An important new hypothesis in landscape ecology is that extreme, decade-scale megadroughts can be potent drivers of rapid, macroscale ecosystem degradation and collapse. If true, an increase in such events under climate change could have devastating consequences for global biodiversity. However, because few megadroughts have occurred in the modern ecological era, the taxonomic breadth, trophic depth, and geographic pattern of these impacts remain unknown. Here we use ecohistorical techniques to quantify the impact of a record, pancontinental megadrought period (1891 to 1903 CE) on the Australian biota. We show that during this event mortality and severe stress was recorded in >45 bird, mammal, fish, reptile, and plant families in arid, semiarid, dry temperate, and Mediterranean ecosystems over at least 2.8 million km2 (36%) of the Australian continent. Trophic analysis reveals a bottom-up pattern of mortality concentrated in primary producer, herbivore, and omnivore guilds. Spatial and temporal reconstruction of premortality rainfall shows that mass mortality and synchronous ecosystem-wide collapse emerged in multiple geographic hotspots after 2 to 4 y of severe (>40%) and intensifying rainfall deficits. However, the presence of hyperabundant herbivores significantly increased the sensitivity of ecosystems to overgrazing-induced meltdown and permanent ecosystem change. The unprecedented taxonomic breadth and spatial scale of these impacts demonstrate that continental-scale megadroughts pose a major future threat to global biodiversity, especially in ecosystems affected by intensive agricultural use, trophic simplification, and invasive species.

Implications of the 2019-2020 megafires for the biogeography and conservation of Australian vegetation.

Australia's 2019-2020 'Black Summer' bushfires burnt more than 8 million hectares of vegetation across the south-east of the continent, an event unprecedented in the last 200 years. Here we report the impacts of these fires on vascular plant species and communities. Using a map of the fires generated from remotely sensed hotspot data we show that, across 11 Australian bioregions, 17 major native vegetation groups were severely burnt, and up to 67-83% of globally significant rainforests and eucalypt forests and woodlands. Based on geocoded species occurrence data we estimate that >50% of known populations or ranges of 816 native vascular plant species were burnt during the fires, including more than 100 species with geographic ranges more than 500 km across. Habitat and fire response data show that most affected species are resilient to fire. However, the massive biogeographic, demographic and taxonomic breadth of impacts of the 2019-2020 fires may leave some ecosystems, particularly relictual Gondwanan rainforests, susceptible to regeneration failure and landscape-scale decline.

Different landscape effects on the genetic structure of two broadly distributed woody legumes, Acacia salicina and A. stenophylla (Fabaceae).

Restoring degraded landscapes has primarily focused on re-establishing native plant communities. However, little is known with respect to the diversity and distribution of most key revegetation species or the environmental and anthropogenic factors that may affect their demography and genetic structure. In this study, we investigated the genetic structure of two widespread Australian legume species (Acacia salicina and Acacia stenophylla) in the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB), a large agriculturally utilized region in Australia, and assessed the impact of landscape structure on genetic differentiation. We used AFLP genetic data and sampled a total of 28 A. salicina and 30 A. stenophylla sampling locations across southeastern Australia. We specifically evaluated the importance of four landscape features: forest cover, land cover, water stream cover, and elevation. We found that both species had high genetic diversity (mean percentage of polymorphic loci, 55.1% for A. salicina versus. 64.3% for A. stenophylla) and differentiation among local sampling locations (A. salicina: ΦPT = 0.301, 30%; A. stenophylla: ΦPT = 0.235, 23%). Population structure analysis showed that both species had high levels of structure (6 clusters each) and admixture in some sampling locations, particularly A. stenophylla. Although both species have a similar geographic range, the drivers of genetic connectivity for each species were very different. Genetic variation in A. salicina seems to be mainly driven by geographic distance, while for A. stenophylla, land cover appears to be the most important factor. This suggests that for the latter species, gene flow among populations is affected by habitat fragmentation. We conclude that these largely co-occurring species require different management actions to maintain population connectivity. We recommend active management of A. stenophylla in the MDB to improve gene flow in the adversity of increasing disturbances (e.g., droughts) driven by climate change and anthropogenic factors.

Continental scale patterns and predictors of fern richness and phylogenetic diversity.

Because ferns have a wide range of habitat preferences and are widely distributed, they are an ideal group for understanding how diversity is distributed. Here we examine fern diversity on a broad-scale using standard and corrected richness measures as well as phylogenetic indices; in addition we determine the environmental predictors of each diversity metric. Using the combined records of Australian herbaria, a dataset of over 60,000 records was obtained for 89 genera to infer richness. A molecular phylogeny of all the genera was constructed and combined with the herbarium records to obtain phylogenetic diversity patterns. A hotspot of both taxic and phylogenetic diversity occurs in the Wet Tropics of northeastern Australia. Although considerable diversity is distributed along the eastern coast, some important regions of diversity are identified only after sample-standardization of richness and through the phylogenetic metric. Of all of the metrics, annual precipitation was identified as the most explanatory variable, in part, in agreement with global and regional fern studies. However, precipitation was combined with a different variable for each different metric. For corrected richness, precipitation was combined with temperature seasonality, while correlation of phylogenetic diversity to precipitation plus radiation indicated support for the species-energy hypothesis. Significantly high and significantly low phylogenetic diversity were found in geographically separate areas. These separate areas correlated with different climatic conditions such as seasonality in precipitation. The phylogenetic metrics identified additional areas of significant diversity, some of which have not been revealed using traditional taxonomic analyses, suggesting that different ecological and evolutionary processes have operated over the continent. Our study demonstrates that it is possible and vital to incorporate evolutionary metrics when inferring biodiversity hotspots from large compilations of data.

Assessing biodiversity and endemism using phylogenetic methods across multiple taxonomic groups.

Identifying geographical areas with the greatest representation of the tree of life is an important goal for the management and conservation of biodiversity. While there are methods available for using a single phylogenetic tree to assess spatial patterns of biodiversity, there has been limited exploration of how separate phylogenies from multiple taxonomic groups can be used jointly to map diversity and endemism. Here, we demonstrate how to apply different phylogenetic approaches to assess biodiversity across multiple taxonomic groups. We map spatial patterns of phylogenetic diversity/endemism to identify concordant areas with the greatest representation of biodiversity across multiple taxa and demonstrate the approach by applying it to the Murray-Darling basin region of southeastern Australia. The areas with significant centers of phylogenetic diversity and endemism were distributed differently for the five taxonomic groups studied (plant genera, fish, tree frogs, acacias, and eucalypts); no strong shared patterns across all five groups emerged. However, congruence was apparent between some groups in some parts of the basin. The northern region of the basin emerges from the analysis as a priority area for future conservation initiatives focused on eucalypts and tree frogs. The southern region is particularly important for conservation of the evolutionary heritage of plants and fishes.

Phylogenetic measures of biodiversity and neo- and paleo-endemism in Australian Acacia.

Understanding spatial patterns of biodiversity is critical for conservation planning, particularly given rapid habitat loss and human-induced climatic change. Diversity and endemism are typically assessed by comparing species ranges across regions. However, investigation of patterns of species diversity alone misses out on the full richness of patterns that can be inferred using a phylogenetic approach. Here, using Australian Acacia as an example, we show that the application of phylogenetic methods, particularly two new measures, relative phylogenetic diversity and relative phylogenetic endemism, greatly enhances our knowledge of biodiversity across both space and time. We found that areas of high species richness and species endemism are not necessarily areas of high phylogenetic diversity or phylogenetic endemism. We propose a new method called categorical analysis of neo- and paleo-endemism (CANAPE) that allows, for the first time, a clear, quantitative distinction between centres of neo- and paleo-endemism, useful to the conservation decision-making process.

Quantifying phytogeographical regions of Australia using geospatial turnover in species composition.

The largest digitized dataset of land plant distributions in Australia assembled to date (750,741 georeferenced herbarium records; 6,043 species) was used to partition the Australian continent into phytogeographical regions. We used a set of six widely distributed vascular plant groups and three non-vascular plant groups which together occur in a variety of landscapes/habitats across Australia. Phytogeographical regions were identified using quantitative analyses of species turnover, the rate of change in species composition between sites, calculated as Simpson's beta. We propose six major phytogeographical regions for Australia: Northern, Northern Desert, Eremaean, Eastern Queensland, Euronotian and South-Western. Our new phytogeographical regions show a spatial agreement of 65% with respect to previously defined phytogeographical regions of Australia. We also confirm that these new regions are in general agreement with the biomes of Australia and other contemporary biogeographical classifications. To assess the meaningfulness of the proposed phytogeographical regions, we evaluated how they relate to broad scale environmental gradients. Physiographic factors such as geology do not have a strong correspondence with our proposed regions. Instead, we identified climate as the main environmental driver. The use of an unprecedentedly large dataset of multiple plant groups, coupled with an explicit quantitative analysis, makes this study novel and allows an improved historical bioregionalization scheme for Australian plants. Our analyses show that: (1) there is considerable overlap between our results and older biogeographic classifications; (2) phytogeographical regions based on species turnover can be a powerful tool to further partition the landscape into meaningful units; (3) further studies using phylogenetic turnover metrics are needed to test the taxonomic areas.