Citizen involvement in COVID-19 contact tracing with digital tools: a qualitative study to explore citizens' perspectives and needs.

BACKGROUND: Contact tracing (CT) is a key strategy when dealing with outbreaks of infectious diseases such as COVID-19. The scale of the COVID-19 pandemic has often left public health professionals (PHPs), who are responsible for the execution of CT, unable to keep up with the rapid and largescale spread of the virus. To enhance or support its execution, and potentially lower the workload for PHPs, citizens may be more actively involved in CT-tasks that are commonly executed by PHPs (referred to as 'self-led CT'). There is limited insight into citizens' perspectives on and needs for self-led CT for COVID-19. This study aims to explore the perspectives and needs of Dutch citizens on taking more responsibilities in the execution of CT for COVID-19, potentially through the use of digital tools. METHODS: An exploratory qualitative study was performed, in which online semi-structured interviews were conducted. Questions were based on the Reasoned Action Approach and Health Belief Model. Interviews were audio-recorded and transcribed verbatim. A thematic analysis was conducted to identify citizens' perspectives and needs to participate in self-led CT. RESULTS: We conducted 27 interviews with Dutch citizens. Seven main themes were identified from the interviews: 1) 'Citizens' perspectives on self-led CT are influenced by prior experiences with regular CT', 2) 'Citizens' felt responsibilities and the perceived responsibilities of the PHS in CT shape their perspectives on self-led CT', 3) 'Anticipated impacts of self-led CT on the CT-process', 4) 'Citizens' attitude towards the application of self-led CT depends on their own perceived skills and the willingness and skills of others', 5) 'Shame and social stigma may hamper participation in self-led CT', 6) 'Concerns about privacy and data security: a barrier for self-led CT', and 7) 'Citizens' perspectives and anticipated needs for the implementation and application of self-led CT in practice'. CONCLUSIONS: Most interviewees hold a positive attitude towards self-led CT and using digital tools for this purpose. However, their intention for self-led CT may depend on various factors, such as prior experiences with regular CT, and their perceived self-efficacy to participate. Perspectives and needs of citizens should be considered for the future implementation of self-led CT in practice.

Dutch public health professionals' perspectives and needs regarding citizen involvement in COVID-19 contact tracing through digital support tools: an exploratory qualitative study.

BACKGROUND: Contact tracing (CT) is an important, but resource-intensive tool to control outbreaks of communicable diseases. Under pandemic circumstances, public health services may not have sufficient resources at their disposal to effectively facilitate CT. This may be addressed by giving cases and their contact persons more autonomy and responsibility in the execution of CT by public health professionals, through digital contact tracing support tools (DCTS-tools). However, the application of this approach has not yet been systematically investigated from the perspective of public health practice. Therefore, we investigated public health professionals' perspectives and needs regarding involving cases and contact persons in CT for COVID-19 through DCTS-tools. METHODS: Between October 2020 and February 2021, we conducted online semi-structured interviews (N = 17) with Dutch public health professionals to explore their perspectives and needs regarding the involvement of cases and contact persons in CT for COVID-19 through DCTS-tools, in the contact identification, notification, and monitoring stages of the CT-process. Interviews were audio recorded and transcribed verbatim. A thematic analysis was performed. RESULTS: Four main themes related to Dutch public health professionals' perspectives and needs regarding involving cases and contact persons in CT for COVID-19 through DCTS-tools emerged from the data: 'Distinct characteristics of CT with DCTS-tools'; 'Anticipated benefits and challenges of CT for COVID-19 with DCTS- tools'; 'Circumstances in CT for COVID-19 that permit or constrain the application of DCTS-tools'; and 'Public health professionals' needs regarding the development and application of DCTS-tools for CT'. Public health professionals seem to have a positive attitude towards involving cases and contact persons through DCTS-tools. Public health professionals' (positive) attitudes seem conditional on the circumstances under which CT is performed, and the fulfilment of their needs in the development and application of DCTS-tools. CONCLUSIONS: Dutch public health professionals seem positive towards involving cases and contact persons in CT for COVID-19 through DCTS-tools. Through adequate implementation of DCTS-tools in the CT-process, anticipated challenges can be overcome. Future research should investigate the perspectives and needs of cases and contact persons regarding DCTS-tools, and the application of DCTS-tools in practice.

[Is the discipline associated with self-confidence in handling rational antibiotic prescription? : Results from the MR2 study in German hospitals]. / Ist die Fachrichtung assoziiert mit der Selbstsicherheit im Umgang mit rationaler Antibiotikaverordnung? : Ergebnisse der MR2-Studien an deutschen Kliniken.

BACKGROUND: Besides public awareness and specialist knowledge and training of physicians, their self-confidence plays a key role for clinical decision-making in the respective area. OBJECTIVE: This exploratory study investigated the influence of the discipline on differences in self-confidence in dealing with antibiotics and in the self-rated knowledge. METHODS: In 2015 the multi-institutional reconnaissance of practice with multiresistant bacteria (MR2) questionnaire containing items on antibiotic prescription and multiresistant pathogens was sent out to 1061 physicians working in departments for internal medicine, general surgery, gynecology and obstetrics and urology. In 2017 a similar MR2 survey was sent to 1268 specialist and assistant physicians in anesthesiology in Germany. Besides demographic data 4 items on self-confidence in the use of antibiotic treatment and 11 items concerning self-rated knowledge about rational antibiotic therapy and multiresistant pathogens were included in the present analysis. Logistic regression analysis, the χ2-test and the Kruskal-Wallis test were used for statistical analysis of the influence of the discipline on these items. RESULTS: The response rates were 43% (456 out of 1061) from the non-anesthetists and 56% (705 out of 1268) from the anesthetists. Of the non-anesthetists 44% and 57% of the anesthetists had had no advanced training on antibiotic stewardship during the year before the study. In the overall analysis anesthetists (mean±SD: 2.53±0.54) were significantly less self-confident about antibiotics than colleagues from other departments (internal medicine: 3.10±0.50, general surgery: 2.97±0.44, gynecology and obstetrics: 3.12±0.42 and urology: 3.15±0.44) in the unadjusted (all p<0.001) and adjusted comparison. The analysis of self-rated knowledge about rational antibiotic prescription showed similar results. Senior consultant status and advanced training in infectiology were significantly associated with self-confidence and self-rated knowledge about antibiotics. CONCLUSION: Anesthetists showed significantly less self-confidence in dealing with antibiotics than colleagues from other disciplines. Advanced training on a rational prescription of antibiotics was associated with a greater self-confidence, so that the implementation of compulsory courses on rational antibiotic stewardship in the respective residency curriculum needs to be considered.

Spatial distribution and temporal progression of T2 relaxation time values in knee cartilage prior to the onset of cartilage lesions - data from the Osteoarthritis Initiative (OAI).

PURPOSE: To investigate compositional changes of knee cartilage at the site of newly appearing cartilage lesions and the surrounding cartilage 1-4 years prior to lesion onset using quantitative T2-measurements. METHODS: Fifty-seven cartilage plates with newly appearing cartilage lesions from 45 knees (cases) and 52 plates from 26 control knees from the Osteoarthritis Initiative (OAI) cohort (controls) were evaluated. Using MRI T2-mapping, composition of local (the site of future lesions) and surrounding cartilage (remainder of the cartilage plate) was assessed 1-4 years prior to lesion onset. Analogous cartilage ROIs in control plates without cartilage lesions were assessed over 1-4 years. Mixed models were used to compare T2-means and change rates between local and surrounding cartilage within cases and controls, and to compare change rates in local and surrounding cartilage between cases and controls, adjusting for covariates. RESULTS: Four years prior to lesion onset, we found that local cartilage ROIs had higher T2-values compared to the surrounding cartilage. No such differences were found in control plates. In cases mean local T2-values were persistantly elevated compared to the surrounding cartilage prior to lesion onset reaching significance 1 year prior (+2.94 ms, p = 0.012). T2-values of the surrounding cartilage were also persistantly higher in cases compared to controls, reaching significance 2 years prior to lesion onset (+3.61 ms, p = 0.003). CONCLUSION: The findings of our study support the concept of compositional cartilage changes as a mechanism for cartilage degradation and that both diffuse and focal changes of cartilage composition within a cartilage plate precede the development of cartilage lesions.

The incidence of symptomatic infection with influenza virus in the Netherlands 2011/2012 through 2016/2017, estimated using Bayesian evidence synthesis.

Due to differences in the circulation of influenza viruses, distribution and antigenic drift of A subtypes and B lineages, and susceptibility to infection in the population, the incidence of symptomatic influenza infection can vary widely between seasons and age-groups. Our goal was to estimate the symptomatic infection incidence in the Netherlands for the six seasons 2011/2012 through 2016/2017, using Bayesian evidence synthesis methodology to combine season-specific sentinel surveillance data on influenza-like illness (ILI), virus detections in sampled ILI cases and data on healthcare-seeking behaviour. Estimated age-aggregated incidence was 6.5 per 1000 persons (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 4.7-9.0) for season 2011/2012, 36.7 (95% UI: 31.2-42.8) for 2012/2013, 9.1 (95% UI: 6.3-12.9) for 2013/2014, 41.1 (95% UI: 35.0-47.7) for 2014/2015, 39.4 (95% UI: 33.4-46.1) for 2015/2016 and 27.8 (95% UI: 22.7-33.7) for season 2016/2017. Incidence varied substantially between age-groups (highest for the age-group <5 years: 23 to 47/1000, but relatively low for 65+ years: 2 to 34/1000 over the six seasons). Integration of all relevant data sources within an evidence synthesis framework has allowed the estimation - with appropriately quantified uncertainty - of the incidence of symptomatic influenza virus infection. These estimates provide valuable insight into the variation in influenza epidemics across seasons, by virus subtype and lineage, and between age-groups.

Development of prediction models for upper and lower respiratory and gastrointestinal tract infections using social network parameters in middle-aged and older persons -The Maastricht Study.

The ability to predict upper respiratory infections (URI), lower respiratory infections (LRI), and gastrointestinal tract infections (GI) in independently living older persons would greatly benefit population and individual health. Social network parameters have so far not been included in prediction models. Data were obtained from The Maastricht Study, a population-based cohort study (N = 3074, mean age (±s.d.) 59.8 ± 8.3, 48.8% women). We used multivariable logistic regression analysis to develop prediction models for self-reported symptomatic URI, LRI, and GI (past 2 months). We determined performance of the models by quantifying measures of discriminative ability and calibration. Overall, 953 individuals (31.0%) reported URI, 349 (11.4%) LRI, and 380 (12.4%) GI. The area under the curve was 64.7% (95% confidence interval (CI) 62.6-66.8%) for URI, 71.1% (95% CI 68.4-73.8) for LRI, and 64.2% (95% CI 61.3-67.1%) for GI. All models had good calibration (based on visual inspection of calibration plot, and Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test). Social network parameters were strong predictors for URI, LRI, and GI. Using social network parameters in prediction models for URI, LRI, and GI seems highly promising. Such parameters may be used as potential determinants that can be addressed in a practical intervention in older persons, or in a predictive tool to compute an individual's probability of infections.

Waning and boosting: on the dynamics of immune status.

The aim is to describe the distribution of immune status (as captured by antibody level) on the basis of a within-host submodel for continuous waning and occasional boosting. Inspired by Feller's fundamental work and the more recent delay equation formulation of models for the dynamics of physiologically structured populations, we derive, for given force of infection, a linear renewal equation. The solution is obtained by generation expansion, with the generation number corresponding to the number of times the individual became infected. Our main result provides a precise characterization of the stable distribution of immune status.

The association between MR T1ρ and T2 of cartilage and patient-reported outcomes after ACL injury and reconstruction.

OBJECTIVE: To determine if cartilage T1ρ and T2 relaxation time measures after ACL injury and prior to reconstruction (baseline) are associated with patient-reported outcomes at baseline, 6-months, and 1-year after surgery. DESIGN: Fifty-four ACL-injured participants were scanned in both knees at baseline using 3T MR T1ρ and T2 mapping. Participants also completed Knee-injury and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score (KOOS) and Marx activity level questionnaires at baseline, 6-months, and 1-year after reconstruction. The difference between cartilage T1ρ or T2 of the injured and contralateral knee (side-to-side difference, SSD) was calculated to account for physiological variations among patients. Linear regression models were built to evaluate the association between the baseline SSD T1ρ or T2 and KOOS or Marx at all time points. RESULTS: Higher baseline SSD T1ρ posterolateral tibia (pLT) was associated with worse KOOS in all subscales except symptoms at baseline, worse KOOS pain at 6-months, and worse KOOS in all subscales except sports function at 1-year. Higher baseline SSD T2 femoral trochlea (TrF) was associated with worse KOOS activities of daily living (ADL) at 1-year. Higher baseline SSD T1ρ pLT was associated with lower Marx activity level at 1-year. More severe cartilage lesions, as assessed by Whole-Organ MRI Scoring (WORMS), was significantly associated with worse KOOS pain at 6-months and 1-year. CONCLUSION: T1ρ and T2 of cartilage after ACL injury were associated with KOOS after injury and both KOOS and Marx after reconstruction. Such associations may help clinicians stratify outcomes post-injury, and thus, improve patient management.

Longitudinal analysis of cartilage T2 relaxation times and joint degeneration in African American and Caucasian American women over an observation period of 6 years - data from the Osteoarthritis Initiative.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate the change in cartilage T2 values and structural degeneration in knee joints over 72 months in women of African American (AA) vs Caucasian American (CA) ethnicity. METHODS: Knee 3T magnetic resonance imaging (MRIs) from baseline, 24, 48 and 72 months visits of 100 AA and 100 CA women from the Osteoarthritis Initiative (OAI) were assessed for cartilage T2 values and whole-organ magnetic resonance imaging (WORMS) score. Subjects were pair-matched by age, body mass index (BMI), Kellgren-Lawrence (KL) score, clinical site and subcohort within the OAI. We compared the rate of change in whole knee cartilage T2 values and WORMS cartilage, bone marrow edema pattern (BMEP) and meniscus scores between the two ethnic groups using mixed random effects models. RESULTS: At 24 and 48 months 60 subjects and at 72 months 45 subjects per group were available for analysis resulting in 38 complete pairs with data of all time points. Compared to CA, cartilage T2 values in AA increased at a significantly faster rate at baseline (AA: 0.45 ms/y, CA: 0.35 ms/y, P = 0.029) and averaged over 6 years (AA: 0.36 ms/y, CA: 0.27 ms/y, P = 0.039) with changes in both groups reaching a plateau by 48 months. Cartilage, meniscus and BMEP scores tended to increase in both groups during follow up, but rates of change did not differ by ethnicity. CONCLUSION: Cartilage T2 values increased faster over 72 months in AA than CA, however changes in WORMS cartilage, meniscus and BMEP scores did not differ. T2 values may be able to distinguish ethnicity-related differences of cartilage degeneration at an early stage before differences in structural joint degeneration appear.

Estimating the risk of dengue transmission from Dutch blood donors travelling to Suriname and the Dutch Caribbean.

BACKGROUND: The risk of dengue transmitted by travellers is known. Methods to estimate the transmission by transfusion (TT) risk from blood donors travelling to risk areas are available, for instance, the European Up-Front Risk Assessment Tool (EUFRAT). This study aimed to validate the estimated risk from travelling donors obtained from EUFRAT. METHODS: Surveillance data on notified dengue cases in Suriname and the Dutch Caribbean islands (Aruba, Curaçao, St. Maarten, Bonaire, St. Eustatius and Saba) in 2001-2011 was used to calculate local incidence rates. Information on travel and donation behaviour of Dutch donors was collected. With the EUFRAT model, the TT risks from Dutch travelling donors were calculated. Model estimates were compared with the number of infections in Dutch travellers found by laboratory tests in the Netherlands. RESULTS: The expected cumulative number of donors becoming infected during travels to Suriname and the Dutch Caribbean from 2001 to 2011 was estimated at 5 (95% CI, 2-11) and 86 (45-179), respectively. The infection risk inferred from the laboratory-based study was 19 (9-61) and 28 (14-92). Given the independence of the data sources, these estimates are remarkably close. The model estimated that 0·02 (0·001-0·06) and 0·40 (0·01-1·4) recipients would have been infected by these travelling donors. CONCLUSIONS: The EUFRAT model provided an estimate close to actual observed number of dengue infections. The dengue TT risk among Dutch travelling donors can be estimated using basic transmission, travel and donation information. The TT risk from Dutch donors travelling to Suriname and the Dutch Caribbean is small.

Association between cartilage degeneration and subchondral bone remodeling in patients with knee osteoarthritis comparing MRI and (99m)Tc-DPD-SPECT/CT.

OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this retrospective cross-sectional study was to investigate the association between cartilage lesions assessed with 3T-MRI and remodeling of the subchondral bone detected by (99m)Tc-DPD-SPECT/CT. DESIGN: (99m)Tc-DPD-SPECT/CT and MRI of 27 knees of 25 patients with chronic knee pain and risk factors for osteoarthritis (OA) were evaluated by one nuclear physician and one radiologist. Six regions of the knee (in total 162 regions in 27 knees) were assessed according to structural joint lesions graded with a modified Whole Organ MR imaging score (WORMS) and according to subchondral (99m)Tc-DPD-SPECT uptake. Relationships between regional WORMS scores and uptake were quantified using general estimating equations. In a secondary analysis the uptake sum with the WORMS sum per joint was compared using Spearman correlations. RESULTS: Elevated subchondral uptake was significantly associated with the grade of cartilage lesions (P < 0.0001). Mean uptake was significantly higher subjacent to full thickness cartilage lesions compared to partial thickness lesions (P < 0.0001). A similar association was observed between bone marrow edema pattern (BMEP) and cartilage lesions. The sum of uptakes per joint was positively correlated to the WORMS sum (rs = 0.42) and to the sum of cartilage lesions per joint (rs = 0.50). CONCLUSION: Both functional and structural changes of the subchondral bone in terms of scintigraphic osseous activity and the presence and degree of BMEP were significantly associated with cartilage lesions in patients with OA of the knee. This association was pronounced with full thickness lesions, indicating a possible protective effect of the cartilage layer for the subjacent bone.

Racial differences in biochemical knee cartilage composition between African-American and Caucasian-American women with 3 T MR-based T2 relaxation time measurements--data from the Osteoarthritis Initiative.

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether knee cartilage composition differs between African-American and Caucasian-American women at risk for Osteoarthritis (OA) using in vivo 3 T MRI T2 relaxation time measurements. METHODS: Right knee MRI studies of 200 subjects (100 African-American women, and 100 closely matched Caucasian-American women) were selected from the Osteoarthritis Initiative (OAI). Knee cartilage was segmented in the patellar (PAT), medial and lateral femoral (MF/LF), and medial and lateral tibial compartments (MT/LT)). Mean T2 relaxation time values per compartment and per whole joint cartilage were generated and analyzed spatially via laminar and grey-level co-occurrence matrix (GLCM) texture methods. Presence and severity of cartilage lesions per compartment were graded using a modified WORMS grading. Statistical analysis employed paired t- and McNemar testing. RESULTS: While African-American women and Caucasian-Americans had similar WORMS cartilage lesion scores (P = 0.970), African-Americans showed significantly lower mean T2 values (∼1 ms difference; ∼0.5SD) than Caucasian-Americans in the whole knee cartilage (P < 0.001), and in the subcompartments (LF: P = 0.001, MF: P < 0.001, LT: P = 0.019, MT: P = 0.001) and particularly in the superficial cartilage layer (whole cartilage: P < 0.001, LF: P < 0.001, MF: P < 0.001, LT: P = 0.003, MT: P < 0.001). T2 texture parameters were also significantly lower in the whole joint cartilage of African-Americans than in Caucasian-Americans (variance: P = 0.001; contrast: P = 0.018). In analyses limited to matched pairs with no cartilage lesions in a given compartment, T2 values remained significantly lower in African-Americans. CONCLUSION: Using T2 relaxation time as a biomarker for the cartilage collagen network, our findings suggest racial differences in the biochemical knee cartilage composition between African-American and Caucasian-American women.

Characterization of the collagen component of cartilage repair tissue of the talus with quantitative MRI: comparison of T2 relaxation time measurements with a diffusion-weighted double-echo steady-state sequence (dwDESS).

OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to characterize the collagen component of repair tissue (RT) of the talus after autologous matrix-induced chondrogenesis (AMIC) using quantitative T2 and diffusion-weighted imaging. METHODS: Mean T2 values and diffusion coefficients of AMIC-RT and normal cartilage of the talus of 25 patients with posttraumatic osteochondral lesions and AMIC repair were compared in a cross-sectional design using partially spoiled steady-state free precession (pSSFP) for T2 quantification, and diffusion-weighted double-echo steady-state (dwDESS) for diffusion measurement. RT and cartilage were graded with modified Noyes and MOCART scores on morphological sequences. An association between follow-up interval and quantitative MRI measures was assessed using multivariate regression, after stratifying the cohort according to time interval between surgery and MRI. RESULTS: Mean T2 of the AMIC-RT and cartilage were 43.1 ms and 39.1 ms, respectively (p = 0.26). Mean diffusivity of the RT (1.76 µm(2)/ms) was significantly higher compared to normal cartilage (1.46 µm(2)/ms) (p = 0.0092). No correlation was found between morphological and quantitative parameters. RT diffusivity was lowest in the subgroup with follow-up >28 months (p = 0.027). CONCLUSIONS: Compared to T2-mapping, dwDESS demonstrated greater sensitivity in detecting differences in the collagen matrix between AMIC-RT and cartilage. Decreased diffusivity in patients with longer follow-up times may indicate an increased matrix organization of RT. KEY POINTS: • MRI is used to assess morphology of the repair tissue during follow-up. • Quantitative MRI allows an estimation of biochemical properties of the repair tissue. • Differences between repair tissue and cartilage were more significant with dwDESS than T2 mapping.

Use of DALYs in economic analyses on interventions for infectious diseases: a systematic review.

A systematic literature review was performed on full economic evaluations of infectious disease interventions using disability-adjusted life years (DALY) as outcome measure. The search was limited to the period between 1994 and September 2011 and conducted in Medline, SciSearch and EMBASE databases. We included 154 studies, mostly targeting HIV/AIDS and malaria with most conducted for African countries (40%) and <10% in high-income countries. Third-payer perspective was applied in 29% of the studies, 25% used the societal perspective and 12% used both. Only 16% of the studies took indirect effects (i.e. herd immunity) of interventions into account. Intervention, direct healthcare and indirect non-healthcare costs were taken into account in respectively 100%, 81% and 36% of the studies. The majority of the studies followed the Global Burden of Disease method for DALY estimations, but most studies deviated from WHO cost-effectiveness guidelines. Better adherence to freely accessible guidelines will improve generalizability between full economic evaluations.

Comparing the impact of two concurrent infectious disease outbreaks on The Netherlands population, 2009, using disability-adjusted life years.

In 2009 two notable outbreaks, Q fever and the novel influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, occurred in The Netherlands. Using a composite health measure, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), the outbreaks were quantified and compared. DALYs were calculated using standardized methodology incorporating age- and sex-stratified data in a disease progression model; years lost due to disability and years of life lost were computed by outcome. Nationally, influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 caused more DALYs (24 484) than Q fever (5797). However, Q fever was 8·28 times more severe [497 DALYs/1000 symptomatic cases (DP1SC)] than A(H1N1)pdm09 (60 DP1SC). The A(H1N1)pdm09 burden is largely due to mortality while the Q fever burden is due primarily to long-term sequelae. Intervention prioritization for influenza should support patients in a critical condition while for Q fever it should target immediate containment and support for patients with long-term sequelae. Burden estimates provide guidance for focusing intervention options during outbreaks of infectious diseases.

The disease burden of hepatitis B, influenza, measles and salmonellosis in Germany: first results of the burden of communicable diseases in Europe study.

Setting priorities in the field of infectious diseases requires evidence-based and robust baseline estimates of disease burden. Therefore, the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control initiated the Burden of Communicable Diseases in Europe (BCoDE) project. The project uses an incidence- and pathogen-based approach to measure the impact of both acute illness and sequelae of infectious diseases expressed in disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). This study presents first estimates of disease burden for four pathogens in Germany. The number of reported incident cases adjusted for underestimation served as model input. For the study period 2005-2007, the average disease burden was estimated at 33 116 DALYs/year for influenza virus, 19 115 DALYs/year for Salmonella spp., 8708 DALYs/year for hepatitis B virus and 740 DALYs/year for measles virus. This methodology highlights the importance of sequelae, particularly for hepatitis B and salmonellosis, because if omitted, the burden would have been underestimated by 98% and 56%, respectively.

Time-course of antibody responses against Coxiella burnetii following acute Q fever.

Large outbreaks of Q fever in The Netherlands have provided a unique opportunity for studying longitudinal serum antibody responses in patients. Results are presented of a cohort of 344 patients with acute symptoms of Q fever with three or more serum samples per patient. In all these serum samples IgM and IgG against phase 1 and 2 Coxiella burnetii were measured by an immunofluorescence assay. A mathematical model of the dynamic interaction of serum antibodies and pathogens was used in a mixed model framework to quantitatively analyse responses to C. burnetii infection. Responses show strong heterogeneity, with individual serum antibody responses widely different in magnitude and shape. Features of the response, peak titre and decay rate, are used to characterize the diversity of the observed responses. Binary mixture analysis of IgG peak levels (phases 1 and 2) reveals a class of patients with high IgG peak titres that decay slowly and may represent potential chronic cases. When combining the results of mixture analysis into an odds score, it is concluded that not only high IgG phase 1 may be predictive for chronic Q fever, but also that high IgG phase 2 may aid in detecting such putative chronic cases.

Hepatitis C prevalence in injecting drug users in Europe, 1990-2007: impact of study recruitment setting.

Monitoring injecting drug users' (IDUs) health is challenging because IDUs form a difficult to reach population. We examined the impact of recruitment setting on hepatitis C prevalence. Individual datasets from 12 studies were merged. Predictors of HCV positivity were sought through a multilevel analysis using a mixed-effects logistic model, with study identifier as random intercept. HCV prevalence ranged from 21% to 86% across the studies. Overall, HCV prevalence was higher in IDUs recruited in drug treatment centres compared to those recruited in low-threshold settings (74% and 42%, respectively, P < 0·001). Recruitment setting remained significantly associated with HCV prevalence after adjustment for duration of injecting and recent injection (adjusted odds ratio 0·7, 95% confidence interval 0·6-0·8, P = 0·05). Recruitment setting may have an impact on HCV prevalence estimates of IDUs in Europe. Assessing the impact of mixed recruitment strategies, including respondent-driven sampling, on HCV prevalence estimates, would be valuable.

Delayed gadolinium-enhanced MRI of cartilage of the ankle joint: results after autologous matrix-induced chondrogenesis (AMIC)-aided reconstruction of osteochondral lesions of the talus.

AIM: To assess cartilage quality using delayed gadolinium-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging after repair of osteochondral lesions of the talus using autologous matrix-induced chondrogenesis (AMIC). MATERIALS AND METHODS: A three-dimensional (3D) spoiled gradient-echo (SGE) sequence at 3 T was used to obtain quantitative T1 relaxation times before and after Gd-DTPA2 (Magnevist, 0.2 mM/kg bod weight) administration to assess 23 cases of AMIC-aided repair of osteochondral lesions of the talus. Delta relaxation rates (ΔR1) for reference cartilage (RC) and repair tissue (RT), and the relative delta relaxation rate (rΔR1) were calculated. The morphological appearance of the cartilage RT was graded on sagittal dual-echo steady-state (DESS) views according to the "magnetic resonance observation of cartilage repair tissue" (MOCART) protocol. The study was approved by the institutional review board and written consent from each patient was obtained. RESULTS: The AMIC cases had a mean T1 relaxation time of 1.194 s (SD 0.207 s) in RC and 1.470 s (SD 0.384 s) in RT before contrast medium administration. The contrast-enhanced T1 relaxation time decreased to 0.480 s (SD 0.114 s) in RC and 0.411 s (SD 0.096 s) in RT. There was a significant difference (p > 0.05) between the ΔR1 in RC (1.372 × 10(-3)/s, range 0.526-3.201 × 10(-3)/s, SD 0.666 × 10(-3)/s) and RT (1.856 × 10(-3)/s, range 0.93-3.336 × 10(-3)/s, SD 0.609 × 10(-3)/s). The mean rΔR1 was 1.49, SD 0.45). The mean MOCART score at follow-up was 62.6 points (range 30-95, SD 15.3). CONCLUSION: The results of the present study suggest that repair cartilage resulting from AMIC-aided repair of osteochondral lesions of the talus has a significantly lower glycosaminoglycan (GAG) content than normal hyaline cartilage, but can be regarded as having hyaline-like properties.

Dynamic concurrent partnership networks incorporating demography.

We introduce a population model that incorporates From a mathematical point of view we deal with continuous-time Markov chains at the individual level, with the interaction between individuals captured by a global variable describing opportunities for new partnerships. We show that for large time a stationary distribution is attained and we deduce various statistical features of that distribution, with particular attention for concurrency, i.e. the overlap in time of multiple partnerships of one and the same individual. Our ultimate motivation is to model the spread of sexually transmitted infections in the population, for which the present paper serves as a prelude.