Health benefits and costs of weight-loss dietary counselling by nurses in primary care: a cost-effectiveness analysis.

OBJECTIVE: We aimed to estimate the cost-effectiveness of brief weight-loss counselling by dietitian-trained practice nurses, in a high-income-country case study. DESIGN: A literature search of the impact of dietary counselling on BMI was performed to source the 'best' effect size for use in modelling. This was combined with multiple other input parameters (e.g. epidemiological and cost parameters for obesity-related diseases, likely uptake of counselling) in an established multistate life-table model with fourteen parallel BMI-related disease life tables using a 3 % discount rate. SETTING: New Zealand (NZ). PARTICIPANTS: We calculated quality-adjusted life-years (QALY) gained and health-system costs over the remainder of the lifespan of the NZ population alive in 2011 (n 4·4 million). RESULTS: Counselling was estimated to result in an increase of 250 QALY (95 % uncertainty interval -70, 560 QALY) over the population's lifetime. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was 2011 $NZ 138 200 per QALY gained (2018 $US 102 700). Per capita QALY gains were higher for Maori (Indigenous population) than for non-Maori, but were still not cost-effective. If willingness-to-pay was set to the level of gross domestic product per capita per QALY gained (i.e. 2011 $NZ 45 000 or 2018 $US 33 400), the probability that the intervention would be cost-effective was 2 %. CONCLUSIONS: The study provides modelling-level evidence that brief dietary counselling for weight loss in primary care generates relatively small health gains at the population level and is unlikely to be cost-effective.

Cataract surgery for falls prevention and improving vision: modelling the health gain, health system costs and cost-effectiveness in a high-income country.

AIM: To estimate the health gain, health system costs and cost-effectiveness of cataract surgery when expedited as a falls prevention strategy (reducing the waiting time for surgery by 12 months) and as a routine procedure. METHODS: An established injurious falls model designed for the New Zealand (NZ) population (aged 65+ years) was adapted. Key parameters relating to cataracts were sourced from the literature and the NZ Ministry of Health. A health system perspective with discounting at 3% was used. RESULTS: Expedited cataract surgery for 1 year of incident cases was found to generate a total 240 quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) (95% uncertainty interval (UI) 161 to 360) at net health system costs of NZ$2.43 million (95% UI 2.02 to 2.82 million) over the remaining lifetimes of the surgery group. This intervention was cost-effective by widely accepted standards with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of NZ$10 600 (US$7540) (95% UI NZ$6030 to NZ$15 700) per QALY gained. The level of cost-effectiveness did not vary greatly by sex, ethnicity and previous fall history, but was higher for the 65-69 age group compared with the oldest age group of 85-89 years (NZ$7000 vs NZ$14 200 per QALY gained). Comparing cataract surgery with no surgery, the ICER was even more favourable at NZ$4380 (95% UI 2410 to 7210) per QALY. Considering only the benefits for vision improvement and excluding the benefits of falls prevention, it was still favourable at NZ$9870 per QALY. CONCLUSIONS: Expedited cataract surgery appears very cost-effective. Routine cataract surgery is itself very cost-effective, and its value appears largely driven by the falls prevention benefits.

Health system costs for individual and comorbid noncommunicable diseases: An analysis of publicly funded health events from New Zealand.

BACKGROUND: There is little systematic assessment of how total health expenditure is distributed across diseases and comorbidities. The objective of this study was to use statistical methods to disaggregate all publicly funded health expenditure by disease and comorbidities in order to answer three research questions: (1) What is health expenditure by disease phase for noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) in New Zealand? (2) Is the cost of having two NCDs more or less than that expected given the independent costs of each NCD? (3) How is total health spending disaggregated by NCDs across age and by sex? METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used linked data for all adult New Zealanders for publicly funded events, including hospitalisation, outpatient, pharmaceutical, laboratory testing, and primary care from 1 July 2007 to 30 June 2014. These data include 18.9 million person-years and $26.4 billion in spending (US$ 2016). We used case definition algorithms to identify if a person had any of six NCDs (cancer, cardiovascular disease [CVD], diabetes, musculoskeletal, neurological, and a chronic lung/liver/kidney [LLK] disease). Indicator variables were used to identify the presence of any of the 15 possible comorbidity pairings of these six NCDs. Regression was used to estimate excess annual health expenditure per person. Cause deletion methods were used to estimate total population expenditure by disease. A majority (59%) of health expenditure was attributable to NCDs. Expenditure due to diseases was generally highest in the year of diagnosis and year of death. A person having two diseases simultaneously generally had greater health expenditure than the expected sum of having the diseases separately, for all 15 comorbidity pairs except the CVD-cancer pair. For example, a 60-64-year-old female with none of the six NCDs had $633 per annum expenditure. If she had both CVD and chronic LLK, additional expenditure for CVD separately was $6,443/$839/$9,225 for the first year of diagnosis/prevalent years/last year of life if dying of CVD; additional expenditure for chronic LLK separately was $6,443/$1,291/$9,051; and the additional comorbidity expenditure of having both CVD and LLK was $2,456 (95% confidence interval [CI] $2,238-$2,674). The pattern was similar for males (e.g., additional comorbidity expenditure for a 60-64-year-old male with CVD and chronic LLK was $2,498 [95% CI $2,264-$2,632]). In addition to this, the excess comorbidity costs for a person with two diseases was greater at younger ages, e.g., excess expenditure for 45-49-year-old males with CVD and chronic LLK was 10 times higher than for 75-79-year-old males and six times higher for females. At the population level, 23.8% of total health expenditure was attributable to higher costs of having one of the 15 comorbidity pairs over and above the six NCDs separately; of the remaining expenditure, CVD accounted for 18.7%, followed by musculoskeletal (16.2%), neurological (14.4%), cancer (14.1%), chronic LLK disease (7.4%), and diabetes (5.5%). Major limitations included incomplete linkage to all costed events (although these were largely non-NCD events) and missing private expenditure. CONCLUSIONS: The costs of having two NCDs simultaneously is typically superadditive, and more so for younger adults. Neurological and musculoskeletal diseases contributed the largest health system costs, in accord with burden of disease studies finding that they contribute large morbidity. Just as burden of disease methodology has advanced the understanding of disease burden, there is a need to create disease-based costing studies that facilitate the disaggregation of health budgets at a national level.

Restricting tobacco sales to only pharmacies combined with cessation advice: a modelling study of the future smoking prevalence, health and cost impacts.

OBJECTIVE: Restricting tobacco sales to pharmacies only, including the provision of cessation advice, has been suggested as a potential measure to hasten progress towards the tobacco endgame. We aimed to quantify the impacts of this hypothetical intervention package on future smoking prevalence, population health and health system costs for a country with an endgame goal: New Zealand (NZ). METHODS: We used two peer-reviewed simulation models: 1) a dynamic population forecasting model for smoking prevalence and 2) a closed cohort multi-state life-table model for future health gains and costs by sex, age and ethnicity. Greater costs due to increased travel distances to purchase tobacco were treated as an increase in the price of tobacco. Annual cessation rates were multiplied with the effect size for brief opportunistic cessation advice on sustained smoking abstinence. RESULTS: The intervention package was associated with a reduction in future smoking prevalence, such that by 2025 prevalence was 17.3%/6.8% for Maori (Indigenous)/non-Maori compared to 20.5%/8.1% projected under no intervention. The measure was furthermore estimated to accrue 41 700 discounted quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 33 500 to 51 600) over the remainder of the 2011 NZ population's lives. Of these QALYs gained, 74% were due to the provision of cessation advice over and above the limiting of sales to pharmacies. CONCLUSIONS: This work provides modelling-level evidence that the package of restricting tobacco sales to only pharmacies combined with cessation advice in these settings can accelerate progress towards the tobacco endgame, and achieve large population health benefits and cost-savings. :.

Exercise programmes to prevent falls among older adults: modelling health gain, cost-utility and equity impacts.

BACKGROUND: Some falls prevention interventions for the older population appear cost-effective, but there is uncertainty about others. Therefore, we aimed to model three types of exercise programme each running for 25 years among 65+ year olds: (i) a peer-led group-based one; (ii) a home-based one and (iii) a commercial one. METHODS: An established Markov model for studying falls prevention in New Zealand (NZ) was adapted to estimate incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) in cost per quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained. Detailed NZ experimental, epidemiological and cost data were used for the base year 2011. A health system perspective was taken and a discount rate of 3% applied. Intervention effectiveness estimates came from a Cochrane Review. RESULTS: The intervention generating the greatest health gain and costing the least was the home-based exercise programme intervention. Lifetime health gains were estimated at 47 100 QALYs (95%uncertainty interval (UI) 22 300 to 74 400). Cost-effectiveness was high (ICER: US$4640 per QALY gained; (95% UI US$996 to 10 500)), and probably more so than a home safety assessment and modification intervention using the same basic model (ICER: US$6060). The peer-led group-based exercise programme was estimated to generate 42 000 QALYs with an ICER of US$9490. The commercially provided group programme was more expensive and less cost-effective (ICER: US$34 500). Further analyses by sex, age group and ethnicity (Indigenous Maori and non-Maori) for the peer-led group-intervention showed similar health gains and cost-effectiveness. CONCLUSIONS: Implementing any of these three types of exercise programme for falls prevention in older people could produce considerable health gain, but with the home-based version being likely to be the most cost-effective.

Development and Validation of a Predictive Model to Aid in the Management of Intact Abdominal Aortic Aneurysms.

OBJECTIVE/BACKGROUND: Predicting outcomes prior to elective abdominal aortic aneurysm repair (AAA) requires critical decision making, as the treatment offered is a prophylactic procedure to prevent death from a ruptured AAA. The aim of this work was to develop and validate a model that may predict outcomes for patients with an AAA and hence aid in clinical decision making. METHODS: A discrete event simulation model was built to simulate the natural history of a patient with an AAA and to predict the 30 day and 2-5 year survival of patients undergoing treatment and surveillance. The input parameters of AAA behavior and impact of comorbidities on survival were derived from the published literature and the New Zealand national life tables. The model was externally validated using a cohort of patients that underwent AAA repair (n = 320) and a cohort of patients undergoing small AAA surveillance (n = 376). All patients had completed at least 5 years of follow up. RESULTS: The model was run three times for each data set to test. This produced a SD < 1%, indicating excellent reproducibility. The observed 30 day mortality for the patients undergoing AAA repair was 9/320 (2.8%) and the expected (model predicted) mortality was 3.8% (c-statistic 0.87 [95 confidence interval 0.75-1.0]). The c-statistic for the predicted 2-5 year survival ranged from 0.68 to 0.71 for the repaired AAA cohort and 0.69 to 0.73 for patients with a small AAA on surveillance. CONCLUSION: The AAA clinical decision tool has the ability to accurately predict the 5 year survival of patients with an AAA. This tool can be used during clinical decision making to better inform clinicians and patients of long-term outcomes. Further validation studies in a wider AAA population are required to test the broader clinical utility of this AAA clinical decision tool.

Impact of five tobacco endgame strategies on future smoking prevalence, population health and health system costs: two modelling studies to inform the tobacco endgame.

OBJECTIVE: There is growing international interest in advancing 'the tobacco endgame'. We use New Zealand (Smokefree goal for 2025) as a case study to model the impacts on smoking prevalence (SP), health gains (quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs)) and cost savings of (1) 10% annual tobacco tax increases, (2) a tobacco-free generation (TFG), (3) a substantial outlet reduction strategy, (4) a sinking lid on tobacco supply and (5) a combination of 1, 2 and 3. METHODS: Two models were used: (1) a dynamic population forecasting model for SP and (2) a closed cohort (population alive in 2011) multistate life table model (including 16 tobacco-related diseases) for health gains and costs. RESULTS: All selected tobacco endgame strategies were associated with reductions in SP by 2025, down from 34.7%/14.1% for Maori (indigenous population)/non-Maori in 2011 to 16.0%/6.8% for tax increases; 11.2%/5.6% for the TFG; 17.8%/7.3% for the outlet reduction; 0% for the sinking lid; and 9.3%/4.8% for the combined strategy. Major health gains accrued over the remainder of the 2011 population's lives ranging from 28 900 QALYs (95% Uncertainty Interval (UI)): 16 500 to 48 200; outlet reduction) to 282 000 QALYs (95%UI: 189 000 to 405 000; sinking lid) compared with business-as-usual (3% discounting). The timing of health gain and cost savings greatly differed for the various strategies (with accumulated health gain peaking in 2040 for the sinking lid and 2070 for the TFG). CONCLUSIONS: Implementing endgame strategies is needed to achieve tobacco endgame targets and reduce inequalities in smoking. Given such strategies are new, modelling studies provide provisional information on what approaches may be best.

Impact of increasing tobacco taxes on working-age adults: short-term health gain, health equity and cost savings.

OBJECTIVE: The health gains and cost savings from tobacco tax increase peak many decades into the future. Policy-makers may take a shorter-term perspective and be particularly interested in the health of working-age adults (given their role in economic productivity). Therefore, we estimated the impact of tobacco taxes in this population within a 10-year horizon. METHODS: As per previous modelling work, we used a multistate life table model with 16 tobacco-related diseases in parallel, parameterised with rich national data by sex, age and ethnicity. The intervention modelled was 10% annual increases in tobacco tax from 2011 to 2020 in the New Zealand population (n=4.4 million in 2011). The perspective was that of the health system, and the discount rate used was 3%. RESULTS: For this 10-year time horizon, the total health gain from the tobacco tax in discounted quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) in the 20-65 year age group (age at QALY accrual) was 180 QALYs or 1.6% of the lifetime QALYs gained in this age group (11 300 QALYs). Nevertheless, for this short time horizon: (1) cost savings in this group amounted to NZ$10.6 million (equivalent to US$7.1 million; 95% uncertainty interval: NZ$6.0 million to NZ$17.7 million); and (2) around two-thirds of the QALY gains for all ages occurred in the 20-65 year age group. Focusing on just the preretirement and postretirement ages, the QALY gains in each of the 60-64 and 65-69 year olds were 11.5% and 10.6%, respectively, of the 268 total QALYs gained for all age groups in 2011-2020. CONCLUSIONS: The majority of the health benefit over a 10-year horizon from increasing tobacco taxes is accrued in the working-age population (20-65 years). There remains a need for more work on the associated productivity benefits of such health gains.

A screening program to test and treat for Helicobacter pylori infection: Cost-utility analysis by age, sex and ethnicity.

BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization recommends all countries consider screening for H. pylori to prevent gastric cancer. We therefore aimed to estimate the cost-effectiveness of a H. pylori serology-based screening program in New Zealand, a country that includes population groups with relatively high gastric cancer rates. METHODS: A Markov model was developed using life-tables and morbidity data from a national burden of disease study. The modelled screening program reduced the incidence of non-cardia gastric cancer attributable to H. pylori, if infection was identified by serology screening, and for the population expected to be reached by the screening program. A health system perspective was taken and detailed individual-level costing data was used. RESULTS: For adults aged 25-69 years old, nation-wide screening for H. pylori was found to have an incremental cost of US$196 million (95% uncertainty interval [95% UI]: $182-$211 million) with health gains of 14,200 QALYs (95% UI: 5,100-26,300). Cost per QALY gained was US$16,500 ($7,600-$38,400) in the total population and 17% (6%-29%) of future gastric cancer cases could be averted with lifetime follow-up. A targeted screening program for Maori only (indigenous population), was more cost-effective at US$8,000 ($3,800-$18,500) per QALY. CONCLUSIONS: This modeling study found that H. pylori screening was likely to be cost-effective in this high-income country, particularly for the indigenous population. While further research is needed to help clarify the precise benefits, costs and adverse effects of such screening programs, there seems a reasonable case for policy-makers to give pilot programs consideration, particularly for any population groups with relatively elevated rates of gastric cancer.

Adjuvant Trastuzumab in HER2-Positive Early Breast Cancer by Age and Hormone Receptor Status: A Cost-Utility Analysis.

BACKGROUND: The anti-human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2) monoclonal antibody trastuzumab improves outcomes in patients with node-positive HER2+ early breast cancer. Given trastuzumab's high cost, we aimed to estimate its cost-effectiveness by heterogeneity in age and estrogen receptor (ER) and progesterone receptor (PR) status, which has previously been unexplored, to assist prioritisation. METHODS AND FINDINGS: A cost-utility analysis was performed using a Markov macro-simulation model, with a lifetime horizon, comparing a 12-mo regimen of trastuzumab with chemotherapy alone using the latest (2014) effectiveness measures from landmark randomised trials. A New Zealand (NZ) health system perspective was adopted, employing high-quality national administrative data. Incremental quality-adjusted life-years for trastuzumab versus chemotherapy alone are two times higher (2.33 times for the age group 50-54 y; 95% CI 2.29-2.37) for the worst prognosis (ER-/PR-) subtype compared to the best prognosis (ER+/PR+) subtype, causing incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) for the former to be less than half those of the latter for the age groups from 25-29 to 90-94 y (0.44 times for the age group 50-54 y; 95% CI 0.43-0.45). If we were to strictly apply an arbitrary cost-effectiveness threshold equal to the NZ gross domestic product per capita (2011 purchasing power parity [PPP]-adjusted: US$30,300; €23,700; £21,200), our study suggests that trastuzumab (2011 PPP-adjusted US$45,400/€35,900/£21,900 for 1 y at formulary prices) may not be cost-effective for ER+ (which are 61% of all) node-positive HER2+ early breast cancer patients but cost-effective for ER-/PR- subtypes (37% of all cases) to age 69 y. Market entry of trastuzumab biosimilars will likely reduce the ICER to below this threshold for premenopausal ER+/PR- cancer but not for ER+/PR+ cancer. Sensitivity analysis using the best-case effectiveness measure for ER+ cancer had the same result. A key limitation was a lack of treatment-effect data by hormone receptor subtype. Heterogeneity was restricted to age and hormone receptor status; tumour size/grade heterogeneity could be explored in future work. CONCLUSIONS: This study highlights how cost-effectiveness can vary greatly by heterogeneity in age and hormone receptor subtype. Resource allocation and licensing of subsidised therapies such as trastuzumab should consider demographic and clinical heterogeneity; there is currently a profound disconnect between how funding decisions are made (largely agnostic to heterogeneity) and the principles of personalised medicine.

Correction: Health, Health Inequality, and Cost Impacts of Annual Increases in Tobacco Tax: Multistate Life Table Modeling in New Zealand.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1001856.].

Cancer Care Coordinators to Improve Tamoxifen Persistence in Breast Cancer: How Heterogeneity in Baseline Prognosis Impacts on Cost-Effectiveness.

OBJECTIVES: To assess the cost-effectiveness of a cancer care coordinator (CCC) in helping women with estrogen receptor positive (ER+) early breast cancer persist with tamoxifen for 5 years. METHODS: We investigated the cost-effectiveness of a CCC across eight breast cancer subtypes, defined by progesterone receptor (PR) status, human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2) status, and local/regional spread. These subtypes range from excellent to poorer prognoses. The CCC helped in improving tamoxifen persistence by providing information, checking-in by phone, and "troubleshooting" concerns. We constructed a Markov macrosimulation model to estimate health gain (in quality-adjusted life-years or QALYs) and health system costs in New Zealand, compared with no CCC. Participants were modeled until death or till the age of 110 years. Some input parameters (e.g., the impact of a CCC on tamoxifen persistence) had sparse evidence. Therefore, we used estimates with generous uncertainty and conducted sensitivity analyses. RESULTS: The cost-effectiveness of a CCC for regional ER+/PR-/HER2+ breast cancer (worst prognosis) was NZ $23,400 (US $15,800) per QALY gained, compared with NZ $368,500 (US $248,800) for local ER+/PR+/HER2- breast cancer (best prognosis). Using a cost-effectiveness threshold of NZ $45,000 (US $30,400) per QALY, a CCC would be cost-effective only in the four subtypes with the worst prognoses. CONCLUSIONS: There is value in investigating cost-effectiveness by different subtypes within a disease. In this example of breast cancer, the poorer the prognosis, the greater the health gains from a CCC and the better the cost-effectiveness. Incorporating heterogeneity in a cost-utility analysis is important and can inform resource allocation decisions. It is also feasible to undertake in practice.

Tobacco retail outlet restrictions: health and cost impacts from multistate life-table modelling in a national population.

BACKGROUND: Since there is some evidence that the density and distribution of tobacco retail outlets may influence smoking behaviours, we aimed to estimate the impacts of 4 tobacco outlet reduction interventions in a country with a smoke-free goal: New Zealand (NZ). METHODS: A multistate life-table model of 16 tobacco-related diseases, using national data by sex, age and ethnicity, was used to estimate quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained and net costs over the remainder of the 2011 NZ population's lifetime. The outlet reduction interventions assumed that increased travel costs can be operationalised as equivalent to price increases in tobacco. RESULTS: All 4 modelled interventions led to reductions of >89% of current tobacco outlets after the 10-year phase-in process. The most effective intervention limited sales to half of liquor stores (and nowhere else) at 129 000 QALYs gained over the lifetime of the population (95% UI: 74 100 to 212 000, undiscounted). The per capita QALY gains were up to 5 times greater for Maori (indigenous population) compared to non-Maori. All interventions were cost-saving to the health system, with the largest saving for the liquor store only intervention: US$1.23 billion (95% UI: $0.70 to $2.00 billion, undiscounted). CONCLUSIONS: These tobacco outlet reductions reduced smoking prevalence, achieved health gains and saved health system costs. Effects would be larger if outlet reductions have additional spill-over effects (eg, smoking denormalisation). While these interventions were not as effective as tobacco tax increases (using the same model), these and other strategies could be combined to maximise health gain and to maximise cost-savings to the health system.

Home safety assessment and modification to reduce injurious falls in community-dwelling older adults: cost-utility and equity analysis.

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to improve on previous modelling work to determine the health gain, cost-utility and health equity impacts from home safety assessment and modification (HSAM) for reducing injurious falls in older people. METHODS: The model was a Markov macrosimulation one that estimated quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained. The setting was a country with detailed epidemiological and cost data (New Zealand (NZ)) for 2011. A health system perspective was taken and a discount rate of 3% was used (for both health gain and costs). Intervention effectiveness estimates came from a Cochrane systematic review and NZ-specific intervention costs were from a randomised controlled trial. RESULTS: In the 65 years and above age group, the HSAM programme cost a total of US$98 million (95% uncertainty interval (UI) US$65 to US$139 million) to implement nationally and the accrued net health system costs were US$74 million (95% UI: cost saving to US$132 million). Health gains were 34 000 QALYs (95% UI: 5000 to 65 000). The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was US$6000 (95% UI: cost saving to US$13 000), suggesting that HSAM is highly cost-effective. Targeting HSAM only to older people with previous injurious falls and to older people aged 75 years and above were also cost-effective (ICERs=US$1000 and US$11 000, respectively). There was no evidence for differential cost-effectiveness by gender or by ethnicity (Indigenous New Zealanders: Maori vs non-Maori). CONCLUSIONS: As per other studies, this modelling study indicates that the provision of an HSAM intervention produces considerable health gain and is highly cost-effective among older people. Targeting this intervention to older people with previous injurious falls is a promising initial approach before any scale up. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ACTRN12609000779279.

Health, Health Inequality, and Cost Impacts of Annual Increases in Tobacco Tax: Multistate Life Table Modeling in New Zealand.

BACKGROUND: Countries are increasingly considering how to reduce or even end tobacco consumption, and raising tobacco taxes is a potential strategy to achieve these goals. We estimated the impacts on health, health inequalities, and health system costs of ongoing tobacco tax increases (10% annually from 2011 to 2031, compared to no tax increases from 2011 ["business as usual," BAU]), in a country (New Zealand) with large ethnic inequalities in smoking-related and noncommunicable disease (NCD) burden. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We modeled 16 tobacco-related diseases in parallel, using rich national data by sex, age, and ethnicity, to estimate undiscounted quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained and net health system costs over the remaining life of the 2011 population (n = 4.4 million). A total of 260,000 (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 155,000-419,000) QALYs were gained among the 2011 cohort exposed to annual tobacco tax increases, compared to BAU, and cost savings were US$2,550 million (95% UI: US$1,480 to US$4,000). QALY gains and cost savings took 50 y to peak, owing to such factors as the price sensitivity of youth and young adult smokers. The QALY gains per capita were 3.7 times greater for Maori (indigenous population) compared to non-Maori because of higher background smoking prevalence and price sensitivity in Maori. Health inequalities measured by differences in 45+ y-old standardized mortality rates between Maori and non-Maori were projected to be 2.31% (95% UI: 1.49% to 3.41%) less in 2041 with ongoing tax rises, compared to BAU. Percentage reductions in inequalities in 2041 were maximal for 45-64-y-old women (3.01%). As with all such modeling, there were limitations pertaining to the model structure and input parameters. CONCLUSIONS: Ongoing tobacco tax increases deliver sizeable health gains and health sector cost savings and are likely to reduce health inequalities. However, if policy makers are to achieve more rapid reductions in the NCD burden and health inequalities, they will also need to complement tobacco tax increases with additional tobacco control interventions focused on cessation.

Patterns of cancer care costs in a country with detailed individual data.

OBJECTIVE: To determine health system expenditure on cancers by time since diagnosis using data for an entire country. METHODS: New Zealand cancer registry data was linked to hospitalization, pharmaceutical, outpatient, general practice, laboratory, and other datasets, with costs ascribed to each event occurring in 2006-2011. "Excess" cancer costs were estimated by subtracting "expected costs" for citizens without cancer from the "total cost" for cancer patients ($2011 inflation-adjusted). Gamma regressions were used to estimate costs per person-month. RESULTS: For first adult cancer diagnosed that the excess cost per person was between US$3400 and US$4300 in the first month postdiagnosis (varied by sex and age), fell to US$50-US$150 per month at 2 or more years postdiagnosis (excluding those within a year of death), but increased again if dying from their cancer (US$3800-US$8300 in the last month of life). Such patterns varied by cancer, for example, in the first month postdiagnosis for 65 year olds it varied 20-fold from US$800 for prostate to US$15,900 for brain cancer. Per diagnosed case, total excess costs varied from US$5000 (melanoma) to US$66,000 (bone and connective tissue) [Corrected]. Excess cancer costs made up 6.5% of total Vote:Health expenditure in 2010-2011, with colorectal (14.7%), breast (14.4%) being the top 2 contributors, and prostate, non-Hodgkin lymphoma, leukemia, and lung each contributing about 6%. CONCLUSIONS: Costs vary substantially by time since diagnosis and cancer type. The results and regression equations reported in this paper can be used in modeling requiring cancer costs by time since diagnosis and proximity to death.

How much might a society spend on life-saving interventions at different ages while remaining cost-effective? A case study in a country with detailed data.

OBJECTIVE: We aimed to estimate the maximum intervention cost (EMIC) a society could invest in a life-saving intervention at different ages while remaining cost-effective according to a user-specified cost-effectiveness threshold. METHODS: New Zealand (NZ) was used as a case study, and a health system perspective was taken. Data from NZ life tables and morbidity data from a burden of disease study were used to estimate health-adjusted life-years (HALYs) gained by a life-saving intervention. Health system costs were estimated from a national database of all publicly funded health events (hospitalizations, outpatient events, pharmaceuticals, etc.). For illustrative purposes we followed the WHO-CHOICE approach and used a cost-effectiveness threshold of the gross domestic product (GDP) per capita (NZ$45,000 or US$30,000 per HALY). We then calculated EMICs for an "ideal" life-saving intervention that fully returned survivors to the same average morbidity, mortality, and cost trajectories as the rest of their cohort. FINDINGS: The EMIC of the "ideal" life-saving intervention varied markedly by age: NZ$1.3 million (US$880,000) for an intervention to save the life of a child, NZ$0.8 million (US$540,000) for a 50-year-old, and NZ$0.235 million (US$158,000) for an 80-year-old. These results were predictably very sensitive to the choice of discount rate and to the selected cost-effectiveness threshold. Using WHO data, we produced an online calculator to allow the performance of similar calculations for all other countries. CONCLUSIONS: We present an approach to estimating maximal cost-effective investment in life-saving health interventions, under various assumptions. Our online calculator allows this approach to be applied in other countries. Policymakers could use these estimates as a rapid screening tool to determine if more detailed cost-effectiveness analyses of potential life-saving interventions might be worthwhile or which proposed life-saving interventions are very unlikely to benefit from such additional research.

Cancer care coordinators in stage III colon cancer: a cost-utility analysis.

BACKGROUND: There is momentum internationally to improve coordination of complex care pathways. Robust evaluations of such interventions are scarce. This paper evaluates the cost-utility of cancer care coordinators for stage III colon cancer patients, who generally require surgery followed by chemotherapy. METHODS: We compared a hospital-based nurse cancer care coordinator (CCC) with 'business-as-usual' (no dedicated coordination service) in stage III colon cancer patients in New Zealand. A discrete event microsimulation model was constructed to estimate quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and costs from a health system perspective. We used New Zealand data on colon cancer incidence, survival, and mortality as baseline input parameters for the model. We specified intervention input parameters using available literature and expert estimates. For example, that a CCC would improve the coverage of chemotherapy by 33% (ranging from 9 to 65%), reduce the time to surgery by 20% (3 to 48%), reduce the time to chemotherapy by 20% (3 to 48%), and reduce patient anxiety (reduction in disability weight of 33%, ranging from 0 to 55%). RESULTS: Much of the direct cost of a nurse CCC was balanced by savings in business-as-usual care coordination. Much of the health gain was through increased coverage of chemotherapy with a CCC (especially older patients), and reduced time to chemotherapy. Compared to 'business-as-usual', the cost per QALY of the CCC programme was $NZ 18,900 (≈ $US 15,600; 95% UI: $NZ 13,400 to 24,600). By age, the CCC intervention was more cost-effective for colon cancer patients < 65 years ($NZ 9,400 per QALY). By ethnicity, the health gains were larger for Maori, but so too were the costs, meaning the cost-effectiveness was roughly comparable between ethnic groups. CONCLUSIONS: Such a nurse-led CCC intervention in New Zealand has acceptable cost-effectiveness for stage III colon cancer, meaning it probably merits funding. Each CCC programme will differ in its likely health gains and costs, making generalisation from this evaluation to other CCC interventions difficult. However, this evaluation suggests that CCC interventions that increase coverage of, and reduce time to, effective treatments may be cost-effective.

Why equal treatment is not always equitable: the impact of existing ethnic health inequalities in cost-effectiveness modeling.

BACKGROUND: A critical first step toward incorporating equity into cost-effectiveness analyses is to appropriately model interventions by population subgroups. In this paper we use a standardized treatment intervention to examine the impact of using ethnic-specific (Maori and non-Maori) data in cost-utility analyses for three cancers. METHODS: We estimate gains in health-adjusted life years (HALYs) for a simple intervention (20% reduction in excess cancer mortality) for lung, female breast, and colon cancers, using Markov modeling. Base models include ethnic-specific cancer incidence with other parameters either turned off or set to non-Maori levels for both groups. Subsequent models add ethnic-specific cancer survival, morbidity, and life expectancy. Costs include intervention and downstream health system costs. RESULTS: For the three cancers, including existing inequalities in background parameters (population mortality and comorbidities) for Maori attributes less value to a year of life saved compared to non-Maori and lowers the relative health gains for Maori. In contrast, ethnic inequalities in cancer parameters have less predictable effects. Despite Maori having higher excess mortality from all three cancers, modeled health gains for Maori were less from the lung cancer intervention than for non-Maori but higher for the breast and colon interventions. CONCLUSIONS: Cost-effectiveness modeling is a useful tool in the prioritization of health services. But there are important (and sometimes counterintuitive) implications of including ethnic-specific background and disease parameters. In order to avoid perpetuating existing ethnic inequalities in health, such analyses should be undertaken with care.

Is expanding HPV vaccination programs to include school-aged boys likely to be value-for-money: a cost-utility analysis in a country with an existing school-girl program.

BACKGROUND: Similar to many developed countries, vaccination against human papillomavirus (HPV) is provided only to girls in New Zealand and coverage is relatively low (47% in school-aged girls for dose 3). Some jurisdictions have already extended HPV vaccination to school-aged boys. Thus, exploration of the cost-utility of adding boys' vaccination is relevant. We modeled the incremental health gain and costs for extending the current girls-only program to boys, intensifying the current girls-only program to achieve 73% coverage, and extension of the intensive program to boys. METHODS: A Markov macro-simulation model, which accounted for herd immunity, was developed for an annual cohort of 12-year-olds in 2011 and included the future health states of: cervical cancer, pre-cancer (CIN I to III), genital warts, and three other HPV-related cancers. In each state, health sector costs, including additional health costs from extra life, and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) were accumulated. The model included New Zealand data on cancer incidence and survival, and other cause mortality (all by sex, age, ethnicity and deprivation). RESULTS: At an assumed local willingness-to-pay threshold of US$29,600, vaccination of 12-year-old boys to achieve the current coverage for girls would not be cost-effective, at US$61,400/QALY gained (95% UI $29,700 to $112,000; OECD purchasing power parities) compared to the current girls-only program, with an assumed vaccine cost of US$59 (NZ$113). This was dominated though by the intensified girls-only program; US$17,400/QALY gained (95% UI: dominant to $46,100). Adding boys to this intensified program was also not cost-effective; US$128,000/QALY gained, 95% UI: $61,900 to $247,000).Vaccination of boys was not found to be cost-effective, even for additional scenarios with very low vaccine or program administration costs - only when combined vaccine and administration costs were NZ$125 or lower per dose was vaccination of boys cost-effective. CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest that adding boys to the girls-only HPV vaccination program in New Zealand is highly unlikely to be cost-effective. In order for vaccination of males to become cost-effective in New Zealand, vaccine would need to be supplied at very low prices and administration costs would need to be minimised.