Secular trends in hip fracture incidence and recurrence.

UNLABELLED: The decline in hip fracture incidence is now accompanied by a further reduction in the likelihood of a recurrent hip fracture among survivors of the first fracture. INTRODUCTION: Hip fracture incidence is declining in North America, but trends in hip fracture recurrence have not been described. METHODS: All hip fracture events among Olmsted County, Minnesota residents in 1980-2006 were identified. Secular trends were assessed using Poisson regression, and predictors of recurrence were evaluated with Andersen-Gill time-to-fracture regression models. RESULTS: Altogether, 2,752 hip fractures (median age, 83 years; 76% female) were observed, including 311 recurrences. Between 1980 and 2006, the incidence of a first-ever hip fracture declined by 1.37%/year for women (p < 0.001) and 0.06%/year for men (p = 0.917). Among 2,434 residents with a first-ever hip fracture, the cumulative incidence of a second hip fracture after 10 years was 11% in women and 6% in men with death treated as a competing risk. Age and calendar year of fracture were independently associated with hip fracture recurrence. Accounting for the reduction in first-ever hip fracture rates over time, hip fracture recurrence appeared to decline after 1997. CONCLUSION: A recent reduction in hip fracture recurrence is somewhat greater than expected from the declining incidence of hip fractures generally. Additional research is needed to determine the extent to which this can be attributed to improved patient management.

Chloride net efflux from intact erythrocytes under slippage conditions. Evidence for a positive charge on the anion binding/transport site.

Tracer chloride and potassium net efflux from valinomycin-treated human erythrocytes were measured into media of different chloride concentrations, Clo, at 25 degrees C and pH 7.8. Net efflux was maximal [45-50 mmol (kg cell solids)-1 min-1] at Clo = 0. It decreased hyperbolically with increasing Clo to 14-16 mmol (kg cell solids)-1 min-1. Half-maximal inhibition occurred at Clo = 3 mM. In the presence of the anion exchange inhibitor DNDS, net efflux was reduced to 5 mmol (kg cell solids)-1 min-1, independent of Clo. Of the three phenomenological components of net efflux, the Clo-inhibitable (DNDS-inhibitable) component was tentatively attributed to "slippage," that is, net transport mediated by the occasional return of the empty transporter. The Clo-independent (DNDS-inhibitable) component was tentatively attributed to movement of chloride through the anion transporter without the usual conformational change of the transport site on the protein ("tunneling"). These concepts of slippage and tunneling are shown to be compatible with a model that describes the anion transporter as a specialized single-site, two-barrier channel that can undergo conformational changes between two states. Net chloride efflux when the slippage component dominated (Clo = 0.7 mM) was accelerated by a more negative (inside) membrane potential. It appears that the single anion binding-and-transport site on each transporter has one net positive charge and that is neutralized when a chloride ion is bound.

Gastrointestinal tract symptoms among persons with diabetes mellitus in the community.

BACKGROUND: Gastrointestinal (GI) tract symptoms are common among patients with diabetes mellitus (DM) seen in tertiary care centers. The degree to which this reflects referral bias is unclear. OBJECTIVES: To determine whether GI tract symptoms are more prevalent in unselected patients with DM from the general community compared with their age- and sex-matched counterparts without DM and to assess the association of GI tract symptoms in persons with DM with psychosomatic symptoms, medication use, and symptoms of autonomic neuropathy. METHODS: In this population-based, cross-sectional study, Olmsted County, Minnesota, residents with type 1 DM, a random sample of residents with type 2 DM, and 2 age- and sex-stratified random samples of nondiabetic residents (total of 1262 person for the 4 groups) were mailed a previously validated symptom questionnaire. RESULTS: Heartburn was less common in residents with type 1 DM vs controls (12% vs 23%; P<.05). No significant difference in prevalence was detected (residents with type 1 DM vs controls; residents with type 2 DM vs controls) for nausea or vomiting (12% vs 11%; 6% vs 6%), dyspepsia (19% vs 21%; 13% vs 17%), or constipation (17% vs 14%; 10% vs 12%). However, constipation and/or laxative use was slightly more common in residents with type 1 DM (27% vs 19%; P<.15), particularly in men, and was associated with the intake of calcium channel blockers. CONCLUSIONS: In the community, the prevalence of most GI tract symptoms is similar in persons with or without DM, except for a lower prevalence of heartburn and an increased prevalence of constipation or laxative use in residents with type 1 DM, especially in men. This difference is associated with calcium channel blocker use rather than symptoms of autonomic neuropathy. In community-based practices, physicians should not immediately assume that GI tract symptoms in patients with DM represent a complication of DM.

Insulin therapy for diabetic ketoacidosis. Bolus insulin injection versus continuous insulin infusion.

OBJECTIVE: Despite widespread acceptance of continuous insulin infusion (CII) over bolus insulin injection (BII) for treatment of diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA), there are no population-based studies demonstrating whether CII has resulted in lower morbidity and mortality. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We addressed this issue using a provider-linked database and retrospectively reviewing the complete medical records of all incidence cases of diabetes among Rochester, Minnesota, residents from 1950 to 1989 with a discharge diagnosis of DKA. This population-based study describes the consequences of the widespread change in treatment modality outside the confines of a controlled clinical trial. RESULTS: Among the diabetes incident cohort, there were 59 subjects with confirmed first episodes of DKA during 1950-1992; 29 of 30 subjects treated with BII occurred before 1970. All 29 CII cases occurred between 1976 and 1992. Sex, etiology, diabetes duration, and age at DKA were similar for the two groups. The proportion of obese individuals (BII = 2/28, CII = 8/21; P = 0.01) differed between groups. The CII group exhibited higher glucose values (BII = 24.9 +/- 8.5 mmol/l, CII = 37.1 +/- 15.1 mmol/l; P = 0.002) and lower bicarbonate values (BII = 7.7 +/- 3.0 nmol/l, CII = 6.2 +/- 2.9 nmol/l; P = 0.04) upon admission. The mean quantity of insulin administered was higher in the BII group than in the CII group (179 +/- 140 and 99 +/- 70 U, P < 0.006). The outcome of hypoglycemia occurred more frequently in the BII group than in the CII group (BII = 8/30, CII = 1/29; P = 0.03). The proportion with hypokalemia, neurological deficit, myocardial arrhythmia, or mortality did not differ significantly between groups. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest the introduction of CII was accompanied by a decreased incidence of hypoglycemia.

Trends in persistent proteinuria in adult-onset diabetes: a population-based study.

OBJECTIVE: This study investigates temporal trends in the prevalence and incidence of persistent proteinuria among people with adult-onset diabetes (age > or =40 years). RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: The complete community-based medical records of all Rochester, Minnesota, residents with a diagnosis of diabetes or diabetes-like condition from 1945 through 1989 were reviewed to determine whether they met National Diabetes Data Group (NDDG) criteria. All confirmed diabetes cases residing in Rochester on 1 January 1970 (n = 446), 1980 (n = 647), and/or 1990 (n = 940) were identified. The medical records of these prevalence cases were reviewed from the time of the first laboratory urinalysis value to the last visit, death, or 1 April 1992 (whichever came first) for evidence of persistent proteinuria (two consecutive urinalyses positive for protein, with no subsequent negative values). Similarly, the medical records of all 1970-1989 diabetes incidence cases (n = 1,252) were reviewed to investigate temporal changes in 1) the likelihood of having persistent proteinuria before the date NDDG criteria was met, i.e., baseline; 2) the risk of persistent proteinuria after baseline; and 3) the relative risk of mortality associated with persistent proteinuria. RESULTS: The proportion of diabetes prevalence cases with persistent proteinuria on or before the prevalence date declined from 20% in 1970 to 11% in 1980 and 8% in 1990. Among the 1970-1989 diabetes incidence cases, 77 (6%) had persistent proteinuria on or before baseline; the adjusted odds declined by 50% with each 10-year increase in baseline calendar year (P<0.001). Among individuals free of persistent proteinuria at baseline, 136 subsequently developed persistent proteinuria; the estimated 20-year cumulative incidence was 41% (95% CI 31-59); the adjusted risk did not differ as a function of baseline calendar year. Survival of individuals with persistent proteinuria relative to those without was reduced but did not differ by baseline calendar year. CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of persistent proteinuria among people with adult-onset diabetes in Rochester, Minnesota, declined 60% between 1970 and 1990. The decline appears because of a decrease in the proportion of diabetes incidence cases with persistent proteinuria before baseline rather than secular declines in the risk of persistent proteinuria after baseline or secular increases in the risk of mortality associated with persistent proteinuria. Similarity over time in age and fasting glucose at baseline, and at prevalence dates, is evidence that earlier detection of diabetes is not the sole explanation for the decline.

Effects of changing diagnostic criteria on the risk of developing diabetes.

OBJECTIVE: The American Diabetes Association (ADA) has recommended that the fasting plasma glucose (FPG) level used to diagnose diabetes be changed from 7.8 mmol/l (the level recommended by the National Diabetes Data Group [NDDG] in 1979) to 7.0 mmol/l. We examined the impact of this change on rates of progression to overt diabetes from different levels of FPG. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Using the laboratory database of Mayo Clinic, we assembled a cohort of 8,098 nondiabetic Olmsted County residents 40 years of age or older on 1 July 1983. Subjects were followed for a median of 9 years. RESULTS: Among 7,567 individuals with follow-up FPG data, 778 (10.3%) progressed to ADA diabetes and 513 (6.8%; P < 0.0001) progressed to NDDG diabetes. The risk of developing ADA diabetes was 7, 19, and 39% for individuals with initial FPG values in the ranges of <5.6, 5.6-6.0, and 6.1-6.9 mmol/l, respectively. For progression to NDDG diabetes, the respective risks were 3, 11, and 25%. A clear gradient of risk was observed within the "normal" range of FPG (<5.6 mmol/l). Among the 793 individuals who developed ADA diabetes, 222 (29%) developed NDDG diabetes simultaneously and 291 (37%) developed NDDG diabetes later. In all FPG subgroups, progression to ADA diabetes occurred approximately 7 years sooner than progression to NDDG diabetes. CONCLUSIONS: The baseline level of FPG is a major predictor of an individual's risk of developing diabetes. The proposed change in the diagnostic criteria for diabetes will lead to earlier diagnosis among individuals who are destined to develop the disease.

Temporal trends in BMI among adults with diabetes.

OBJECTIVE: Increasing obesity within the general population has been accompanied by rising rates of diabetes. The extent to which obesity has increased among people with diabetes is unknown, as are the potential consequences for diabetes outcomes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Community medical records (hospital and ambulatory) of all Rochester, Minnesota, residents aged > or =30 years who first met standardized research criteria for diabetes from 1970 to 1989 (n = 1,306) were reviewed to obtain data on BMI and related characteristics as of the diabetes identification date (+/-3 months). Vital status as of 31 December 1999 and date of death for those who died were obtained from medical records, State of Minnesota death tapes, and active follow-up. RESULTS: As of the identification date, data on BMI were available for 1,290 cases. Of the 272 who first met diabetes criteria in 1970-1974, 33% were obese (BMI > or =30), including 5% who were extremely obese (BMI > or =40). These proportions increased to 49% (P < 0.001) and 9% (P = 0.012), respectively, for the 426 residents who first met diabetes criteria in 1985-1989. BMI increased significantly with increasing calendar year of diabetes identification in multivariable regression analysis. Analysis of survival revealed an increased hazard of mortality for BMI > or =41, relative to BMI of 23-25 (hazard ratio 1.60, 95% CI 1.09-2.34, P = 0.016). CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of obesity and extreme obesity among individuals at the time they first met criteria for diabetes has increased over time. This is disturbing in light of the finding that diabetic individuals who are extremely obese are at increased risk of mortality compared with their nonobese diabetic counterparts.

Utilization of acute care services in the year before and after first stroke: A population-based study.

There is a need for accurate population-based data on the utilization of medical resources after stroke. The present study used the Rochester Stroke Registry to identify all Rochester, Minnesota residents with confirmed first stroke (hospitalized and nonhospitalized) during the period of 1987 to 1989 (n=292). Events were categorized by type of stroke and assigned Rankin severity. Inpatient and outpatient acute care activity for the 12 months before and after stroke for each individual were obtained from billing tapes provided by Mayo Clinic, Olmstead Medical Group, and affiliated hospitals. These providers account for >95% of acute care received by Rochester residents. The results showed that despite high poststroke mortality, total charges in the year after stroke were 3.4 times those for the previous year. Although greater than 50% of utilization in the year poststroke occurred within the first 30 days, mean monthly charges for acute care remained significantly above prestroke levels for up to 5 months after the event. Poststroke charges per person-day of follow-up were significantly higher for individuals who were hospitalized for the event, who had subarachnoid hemorrhage, whose stroke occurred after admission to the hospital for another reason, and who died within 7 days. Significantly lower poststroke charges were evident for persons with mild cerebral infarctions and persons whose stroke occurred in a nursing home. Neither prestroke utilization, age category, nor sex were predictive of poststroke charges. The unique population-based data presented here have important implications for efforts toward stroke prevention, intervention, and cost containment.

Stroke-attributable nursing home use: a population-based study.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate 1) among patients with stroke, nursing home use attributable to stroke, and 2) the savings in nursing home use, assuming strokes were prevented. METHODS: All confirmed cases of first stroke among Rochester, Minnesota, residents from 1987 through 1989 (n = 290) and one nonstroke control of same gender and similar age for each patient were followed up in provider-linked medical records and State of Minnesota nursing home files until emigration, death, or December 31, 1994. Data included disability and place of residence at baseline (i.e., date of stroke for each patient and their corresponding control), length of follow-up, cumulative incidence of nursing home admission, proportion of follow-up spent in a nursing home, and number of nursing home days. RESULTS: Before baseline, patients and controls were similar in the level of disability (mean Rankin = 1.7 for patients and 1.6 for controls) and the proportion in a nursing home (11% for both groups). Among those not in the nursing home at baseline, 5-year cumulative incidence of first admission was 48% for cases versus 20% for controls. Survival was significantly shorter for cases than for controls; the proportion of follow-up spent in the nursing home was 20% for cases versus 11% for controls. When controlling for survival, cases experienced an average of 110 (95% CI, 63 to 156) more nursing home days per person than controls in the first five years. When nursing home use during differential survival was included, the difference in nursing home days between cases and controls was no longer significant (p = 0.16). CONCLUSIONS: Stroke prevention would result in fewer cases admitted to the nursing home, older age at first admission, and a smaller proportion of remaining life spent in the nursing home, but stroke prevention would not result in fewer nursing home days.

Referral to autopsy: effect of antemortem cardiovascular disease: a population-based study in Olmsted County, Minnesota.

PURPOSE: Autopsy studies can provide insight into disease trends and their determinants, including data on the prevalence of atherosclerosis. However, such studies are subject to autopsy bias, which limits their generalizability to the source population. The impact of this bias on autopsy based estimates of time trends in heart disease prevalence is unknown. To report on the trends over time in autopsy rates in Olmsted County, MN, to examine the association between clinical diagnoses of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) and referral to autopsy and how this association may have changed over time. METHODS: We examined the trends in autopsy rates between 1979 and 1994 in Olmsted County, and the association between antemortem characteristics including cardiovascular diagnoses and autopsy referral. RESULTS: From 1979 to 1994, a total of 9110 residents died in Olmsted County. The average annual autopsy rate was 30%. Autopsy rates declined from 36% in 1979 to 23% in 1994, corresponding to an average decline of 0.6%/year (p < 0.01). Referral to autopsy was positively associated with younger age, male sex, in-hospital place of death, antemortem diagnoses of myocardial infarction (MI) or peripheral vascular disease (PVD), and earlier calendar period. There was no evidence of an interaction between calendar period and any of these predictor variables. Antemortem diagnosis of heart failure was associated with a decrease in the odds of referral to autopsy over time as compared to persons without such diagnosis. CONCLUSIONS: In Olmsted County, autopsy rates, although declining over time, have remained on average approximately 30%. Antemortem diagnoses of MI or PVD are associated with autopsy referral but this association did not change over time. While the greater decline overtime in the use of autopsy observed among decedents with an antemortem diagnosis of congestive heart failure (CHF) deserves further studies, the present findings reduce the concern for bias of time trends in the prevalence of atherosclerosis by changes in the clinical characteristics of decedents referred to autopsy.

Contribution of a measure of disease complexity (COMPLEX) to prediction of outcome and charges among hospitalized patients.

Attention has been focused on the need to adjust hospital reimbursement and outcomes of hospital care for level of illness. Extant measures of disease severity, however, fail to consider the contribution of disease complexity. We developed an easily retrievable measure of disease complexity (COMPLEX) by modifying an existing severity system, computerized Disease Staging. The contribution of COMPLEX (the number of body systems affected with a Disease Staging score of 2 or more) to the prediction of outcome was assessed in two studies: (1) a population-based analysis of readmission and mortality after hospitalization and (2) an analysis of hospital charges among patients who were in an intensive-care unit. The amount of variation in mortality explained by factors included in the Health Care Financing Administration model was significantly improved when COMPLEX was added to the model (adjusted odds ratio per body system, 1.83; 95% confidence interval, 1.61 to 2.08). A significant association was also observed between COMPLEX score and hospital readmission after adjustment for age, sex, case-mix, and disease severity (adjusted odds ratio, 1.31; 95% confidence interval, 1.20 to 1.44). When COMPLEX was added to case-mix and disease severity in a model for predicting hospital charges, the percentage of variation in hospital charges explained by the model increased from 25% to 38%. These findings demonstrate the important contribution of disease complexity to the analysis of outcome of medical care and utilization of resources. Outcome or reimbursement models that do not incorporate disease complexity may negatively affect institutions with a high proportion of patients who have complex conditions.

The Olmsted County Benchmark Project: primary study findings and potential implications for corporate America.

Since 1965, expenditures for medical care in the United States have increased 10-fold. As a result, corporate outlays for health benefits have skyrocketed. Employers have instituted various cost-containment measures based in part on reports of wide variations in rates of utilization and the assumption that unnecessary or inappropriate utilization of medical care contributes to increasing costs. Frequently, however, employers lack adequate means for identifying sources of variation or for evaluating its appropriateness. In this article, we report on a project in which hospital utilization among several US corporate populations was compared with that for a geographically defined benchmark population to assist employers in the assessment of their rates of utilization and expenditures and to identify specific areas that merit further investigation. Our findings illuminate the difficulties in constructing valid rates from medical-care claims data and emphasize potential biases due to problems of comparability between populations. We also address the potential value of such comparison for helping corporations identify areas in which cost-containment efforts may be most effective and yet not jeopardize the quality of medical care.

The impact of stroke on the cost and level of care in nursing homes: a retrospective population-based study.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the impact of incident stroke on nursing home (NH) costs and level of care. SUBJECTS AND METHODS: This retrospective population-based cohort study is part of a larger study that identified all Rochester, Minn, residents with a confirmed first stroke occurring between January 1, 1988, and December 31, 1989. One Rochester resident who had not had a stroke was matched to each person with stroke. Persons with and without stroke were followed up in provider-linked medical records and NH files from baseline (i.e., date of stroke) through December 31, 1994, for evidence of NH use. This study characterized the NH activity of those individuals with any NH activity after baseline (58 persons with major stroke, 36 persons with minor stroke, and 63 persons without stroke) as to NH case mix at first assessment, number of NH days, and per diem Medicaid reimbursement. RESULTS: Characteristics at first NH assessment after baseline revealed that NH residents with major stroke were younger and more disabled and required more services than residents without stroke. Over the full period of follow-up, the mean number of NH days was similar for NH residents with major stroke and those without stroke, yet per diem Medicaid reimbursement was 11% higher for residents with major stroke compared with residents without stroke. Nursing home residents with minor stroke appeared similar to those without stroke with respect to time to admission, characteristics at first assessment, number of NH days, and per diem Medicaid reimbursement. CONCLUSION: Lower incidence and severity of stroke may contribute to lower care needs and per diem cost, but no fewer NH days.

Left atrial volume: important risk marker of incident atrial fibrillation in 1655 older men and women.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the contribution of left atrial (LA) volume in predicting atrial fibrillation (AF). PATIENTS AND METHODS: In this retrospective cohort study, a random sample of 2200 adults was identified from all Olmsted County, Minnesota, residents who had undergone transthoracic echocardiographic assessment between 1990 and 1998 and were 65 years of age or older at the time of examination, were in sinus rhythm, and had no history of AF or other atrial arrhythmias, stroke, pacemaker, congenital heart disease, or valve surgery. The LA volume was measured off-line by using a biplane area-length method. Clinical characteristics and the outcome event of incident AF were determined by retrospective review of medical records. Echocardiographic data were retrieved from the laboratory database. From this cohort, 1655 patients in whom LA size data were available were followed from baseline echocardiogram until development of AF or death. The clinical and echocardiographic associations of AF, especially with respect to the role of LA volume in predicting AF, were determined. RESULTS: A total of 666 men and 989 women, mean +/- SD age of 75.2 +/- 7.3 years (range, 65-105 years), were followed for a mean +/- SD of 3.97 +/- 2.75 years (range, < 1.00-10.78 years); 189 (11.4%) developed AF. Cox model 5-year cumulative risks of AF by quartiles of LA volume were 3%, 12%, 15%, and 26%, respectively. With Cox proportional hazards multivariate models, logarithmic LA volume was an independent predictor of AF, incremental to clinical risk factors. After adjusting for age, sex, valvular heart disease, and hypertension, a 30% larger LA volume was associated with a 43% greater risk of AF, incremental to history of congestive heart failure (hazard ratio [HR], 1.887; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.230-2.895; P = .004), myocardial infarction (HR, 1.751; 95% CI, 1.189-2.577; P = .004), and diabetes (HR, 1.734; 95% CI, 1.066-2.819; P = .03). Left atrial volume remained incremental to combined clinical risk factors and M-mode LA dimension for prediction of AF (P < .001). CONCLUSION: This study showed that a larger LA volume was associated with a higher risk of AF in older patients. The predictive value of LA volume was incremental to that of clinical risk profile and conventional M-mode LA dimension.

Cardiology services after stress testing: are there sex differences? A population-based study.

To test the hypothesis that, in a population-based cohort of persons undergoing stress tests, female sex was negatively associated with the use of cardiology visits in persons with no documented coronary artery disease (CAD) but that this association did not exist when CAD was established. Sex differences in the use of invasive cardiac procedures have been clearly documented, but data on physician encounters, an integral part of care, are lacking. A population-based cohort consisting of all Olmsted County, Minnesota residents who underwent an initial stress test in 1987, 1988, and 1989 in Olmsted County was examined. Medical records were reviewed for baseline characteristics including CAD diagnosis status, test results, and cardiology visits in the year following the stress test. Regression models were constructed to determine whether sex is independently associated with the probability of a visit. In the year after stress testing, there was no difference between the sexes in the use of inpatient (OR for female sex 0.88, 95% CI 0.62-0.97, P = 0.365) and outpatient/consultative (OR for female sex 1.24, 95% CI 0.95-1.61, P = 0.6) cardiology visits. Women were, however, less likely to receive preventive cardiology visits (OR for female sex 0.77, 95% CI 0.62-0.97, P = 0.02). This was largely related to less use of preventive visits among older women with documented coronary artery disease (CAD). In the absence of documented CAD, when the stress test was positive, women were less likely to receive preventive visits. In this geographically defined population within one year after an initial stress test, there was no sex difference in the use of in-patient or out-patient visits but women were less likely to receive preventive cardiology visits in the year after stress testing. Further studies are needed to understand the reasons for and impact of these care patterns.

Trends in elderly hospitalization and readmission rates for a geographically defined population: pre- and post-prospective payment.

To address the paucity of patient-level data regarding the effectiveness of Medicare's prospective payment system (PPS), we conducted a population-based study of inpatient hospitalizations among individually identified elderly residents of Olmsted County, Minnesota, 1970-1987. A 4.3% increase in total days of care/1000 population from 2,652/1,000 in 1970 to 2,766/1,000 in 1980 was followed by a 9.8% decline from 1980 to 1987 (2,495/1,000). The decline was due primarily to a 13.4% decrease in mean length stay (9.7 days in 1980 to 8.4 days in 1987). The number of hospitalizations/1,000 Olmsted County elderly in 1980 was already below 1987 U.S. figures and did not exhibit the decline evidenced nationally between 1980 and 1987. A 4.6% decline in the proportion of county residents age 65-74 years who were hospitalized (174/1,000 in 1980 to 166/1,000 in 1987) was offset by an 8.3% increase for persons age greater than or equal to 75 (252/1,000 to 273/1,000) and by a 5.7% increase in the number of hospitalizations per individual hospitalized for persons age 65-74 years (1.34 to 1.42). Using a time-dependent Cox model, which adjusted for differences in patients characteristics between years, there was a significantly higher risk of readmission within 14 days in 1987 vs 1980 (hazard ratio (HR) = 1.33, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.05-1.70). The difference between years was no longer evident at 30 or 60 days (HR = 0.84, 95% CI = 0.63-1.11 between 15 and 30 days; HR = 1.12, 95% CI = 0.84-1.49 between 31 and 60 days). This study suggests that initial effects of PPS on utilization may be temporary and that more research is needed to appreciate the impact of cost-containment on patient outcome.

Use of physician and acute care services by persons with and without Alzheimer's disease: a population-based comparison.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate differences in use of acute care services between persons with and without Alzheimer's disease (AD). STUDY DESIGN: Population-based historical cohort study. SETTING/SUBJECTS: All Rochester, Minnesota, residents with AD onset between January 1, 1980, and December 31, 1984 (n = 301), plus one age- and sex-matched nondemented control per case, were identified with a retrospective review of community-based medical records. MEASUREMENTS: Cases and controls were followed in their medical records for number of acute care encounters in the year before January 1 of the index year (year of onset for AD case and their matched control) and in the 4 years following December 31 of the index year. Encounters included clinician visits (office or nursing home), emergency room (ER) visits, hospitalizations (inpatient and outpatient), and inpatient days. Multivariate regression analyses were adjusted for age, sex, pre-index level of illness, and follow-up time. RESULTS: In the pre-index period, cases and controls were similar with respect to level of illness, number of office visits, ER visits, and hospitalizations. In the year before AD onset, 17 cases (7%) had a clinician visit in the nursing home compared with no controls. In the 4 years after the index year, mean length of follow-up was 3.4 years for both cases and controls. The numbers of ER visits, hospitalizations, and inpatient days were similar for cases and controls. Sixty-four percent of AD cases had a clinician visit in a nursing home versus 1% of controls. Controls experienced more office visits than cases (median = 16 vs 10, P < .001). CONCLUSIONS: The onset of AD is not associated with greater use of acute care services. However, neither is the high use of nursing home care offset by fewer ER or hospital encounters.

Determinants of the autopsy decision: a statistical analysis.

Our goal was to use cross-sectional national mortality data to provide a multivariable statistical analysis of the factors that contribute to the decision of whether an autopsy will be performed. The identification of determinants of the autopsy is an important prerequisite for finding cost-effective alternatives for arresting or reversing the decline of autopsy rates in the circumstances in which the autopsy can continue to make a crucial contribution to clinical medicine and public health. The source of the data was 1986 National Center for Health Statistics (Washington, DC) mortality data tapes for Kentucky, Maryland, Minnesota, and Washington for the 1986 calendar year. Separate multiple logistic regressions were conducted on these data on a state-by-state basis, with a total of 139,063 individual mortality records as the unit of analysis. The dependent variable in all models was autopsy (yes/no). Odds ratios for selected explanatory variables were estimated for all four states, and the relative contribution of each explanatory variable was studied in a detailed analysis of one state. In general, the following independent variables had a statistically significant positive relationship with whether an autopsy will be performed: male sex; nonwhite ethnicity; death due to ill-defined or unknown cause; death due to accident, suicide, or homicide; presence of a nationally recognized medical center in the county of death; and death occurring in a standard metropolitan statistical area. In general, the following independent variables had a statistically significant negative relationship with whether an autopsy will be performed: older age at death; higher income level of the decedent; death in a nursing home; death at home; and residency in the county of death. The two most important variables influencing the autopsy decision were age at death (especially old age) and death due to accident, homicide, or suicide.

Clinical detection of depression among community-based elderly people with self-reported symptoms of depression.

BACKGROUND: Depression is under-diagnosed and under-treated in the primary care sector. The purpose of this study was to determine the association between self-reported indications of depression by community-dwelling elderly enrollees in a managed care organization and clinical detection of depression by primary care clinicians. METHODS: This was a 2-year cohort study of elderly people (n = 3410) who responded to the Geriatric Depression Scale (GDS) at the midpoint of the study period. A broad measure of clinical detection was used consisting of one or more of three indicators: diagnosis of depression, visit to a mental health specialist, or antidepressant medication treatment. RESULTS: Approximately half of the community-based elderly people with self-reported indications of depression (GDS > or = 11) did not have documentation of clinical detection of depression by health providers. Physician recognition of depression tended to increase with the severity of enrollees' self-reported feelings of depression. Men 65-74 years old and those > or = 85 years old were at highest risk for under-detection of depression by primary care providers. CONCLUSIONS: Clinical detection of depression of elderly people living in the community continues to be a problem. The implications of failure to recognize the possibility of depression among elderly White men suggest a serious public health problem.

Disposition at discharge and 60-day mortality among elderly people following shorter hospital stays: a population-based comparison.

This study examines whether shorter hospital stays following the introduction of Medicare's Prospective Payment System have been accompanied by increased mortality or an increased rate of discharge to nursing homes. An examination of hospitalizations for all elderly residents of Olmsted County, MN (N = 5,854) for 1980, 1985, and 1987 demonstrates significant increases in 60-day mortality and nursing home transfers after this system began. These increases, however, are largely explained by differences in risk factors other than length of stay, such as patient age, gender, disease severity, and complexity.