Comparing clinical trial population representativeness to real-world users of 17 biologics approved for immune-mediated inflammatory diseases: An external validity analysis of 66,639 biologic users from the Italian VALORE project.

To date, no population-based studies have specifically explored the external validity of pivotal randomized clinical trials (RCTs) of biologics simultaneously for a broad spectrum of immuno-mediated inflammatory diseases (IMIDs). The aims of this study were, firstly, to compare the patients' characteristics and median treatment duration of biologics approved for IMIDs between RCTs' and real-world setting (RW); secondly, to assess the extent of biologic users treated for IMIDs in the real-world setting that would not have been eligible for inclusion into pivotal RCT for each indication of use. Using the Italian VALORE distributed database (66,639 incident biologic users), adult patients with IMIDs treated with biologics in the Italian real-world setting were substantially older (mean age ± SD: 50 ± 15 years) compared to those enrolled in pivotal RCTs (45 ± 15 years). In the real-world setting, certolizumab pegol was more commonly used by adult women with psoriasis/ankylosing spondylitis (F/M ratio: 1.8-1.9) compared to RCTs (F/M ratio: 0.5-0.6). The median treatment duration (weeks) of incident biologic users in RW was significantly higher than the duration of pivotal RCTs in almost all indications for use and most biologics (4-100 vs. 6-167). Furthermore, almost half (46.4%) of biologic users from RW settings would have been ineligible for inclusion in the respective indication-specific pivotal RCTs. The main reasons were: advanced age, recent history of cancer and presence of other concomitant IMIDs. These findings suggest that post-marketing surveillance of biologics should be prioritized for those patients.

A NLP-based semi-automatic identification system for delays in follow-up examinations: an Italian case study on clinical referrals.

BACKGROUND: This study aims to propose a semi-automatic method for monitoring the waiting times of follow-up examinations within the National Health System (NHS) in Italy, which is currently not possible to due the absence of the necessary structured information in the official databases. METHODS: A Natural Language Processing (NLP) based pipeline has been developed to extract the waiting time information from the text of referrals for follow-up examinations in the Lombardy Region. A manually annotated dataset of 10 000 referrals has been used to develop the pipeline and another manually annotated dataset of 10 000 referrals has been used to test its performance. Subsequently, the pipeline has been used to analyze all 12 million referrals prescribed in 2021 and performed by May 2022 in the Lombardy Region. RESULTS: The NLP-based pipeline exhibited high precision (0.999) and recall (0.973) in identifying waiting time information from referrals' texts, with high accuracy in normalization (0.948-0.998). The overall reporting of timing indications in referrals' texts for follow-up examinations was low (2%), showing notable variations across medical disciplines and types of prescribing physicians. Among the referrals reporting waiting times, 16% experienced delays (average delay = 19 days, standard deviation = 34 days), with significant differences observed across medical disciplines and geographical areas. CONCLUSIONS: The use of NLP proved to be a valuable tool for assessing waiting times in follow-up examinations, which are particularly critical for the NHS due to the significant impact of chronic diseases, where follow-up exams are pivotal. Health authorities can exploit this tool to monitor the quality of NHS services and optimize resource allocation.

Predicting the risk of nursing home placement of elderly persons using a population-based stratification score.

OBJECTIVE: To develop and validate a novel score predictive of nursing home placement in elderly. STUDY DESIGN: Population-based case-control study based on healthcare utilization databases of Lombardy, a region of Northern Italy. METHODS: The 2.4 million citizens aged ≥65 years who on January 1, 2018 lived outside nursing home formed the target population. Cases were citizens who experienced nursing home admission (the outcome of interest) until December 31, 2019. Cases were matched 1:1 by gender, age, and municipality of residence to one control. Conditional logistic regression was fitted to select candidate predictors (the exposure to 69 clinical conditions and 11 social and healthcare services) independently associated with the outcome. The model was built from the 26,156 cases, and as many controls (training set), and applied to a validation set (15,807 case-control couples). Predictive performance was assessed by discrimination and calibration. RESULTS: Twenty-one factors were identified as predictive of nursing home admission and were included in the "Elderly Nursing Home Placement" (ENHP) score. Mental health disorders and chronic neurological illnesses contributed most to prediction of nursing home admission. ENHP performance showed an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.77 and a remarkable calibration of observed and predicted outcome risk. CONCLUSIONS: A simple score derived from data used for public health management may reliably predict the risk of nursing home placement in elderly. Its use by healthcare decision makers allows to accurately identify high-risk individuals who need home services, thereby avoiding admission to nursing homes.

[Analysis of predictive factors for non-adherence to organized screening for colorectal and breast cancers in the pre-pandemic period (2018-2019) in Lombardy Region (Northern Italy)]. / Analisi dei fattori predittivi della mancata adesione allo screening organizzato per i tumori del colon retto e della mammella nel periodo pre-pandemico (2018-2019) in Lombardia.

BACKGROUND: according to the International Agency for Cancer Research on Cancer, in 2022, breast cancer is the most common cancer in the Italian population, followed by colorectal cancer. Oncological screenings represent an effective secondary prevention strategy to counteract colorectal and breast cancers, significantly reducing mortality. In Lombardy Region (Northern Italy), screening programmes have been active since 2007, but adherence, especially in specific population subgroups, remains lower than expected. OBJECTIVES: to analyse potential predictors of non-adherence to colorectal and breast cancer screening in the Lombardy Region during the pre-pandemic period of 2018-2019. DESIGN: a retrospective cohort study aimed at investigating the role of sociodemographic variables, health status, and access to the healthcare system on non-adherence to colorectal and breast cancer screening. Statistical analyses were conducted separately by each Agency for Health Protection (ATS). The results of the models were synthesized across the Lombardy region through random-effects meta-analysis. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: residents within the territory of each ATS in Lombardy as of 01.01.2018 and aged between 49 and 69 years at the beginning of the follow-up. MAIN OUTCOMES MEASURES: adherence to colorectal and breast cancer screenings. RESULTS: during the study period, across the Lombardy Region, 2,820,138 individuals were eligible to participate in colorectal cancer screening, and 1,357,344 women were eligible to participate in breast cancer screening, with an invitation coverage of 87% and 86%, respectively.For breast cancer screening, older age, cardiopathy, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), inflammatory bowel diseases (IBD), autoimmune diseases, and presence of a rare disease are associated with a reduced risk of non-adherence. Conversely, foreign citizenship, oncological diagnosis, transplant, chronic kidney disease/dialysis, diabetes, heart failure, arterial or cerebral vasculopathy, and presence of a neurological diagnosis are associated with significant excess risks of non-participation. For colorectal cancer screening, factors favouring adherence include female gender, older age, cardiopathy, COPD, autoimmune diseases, and having access/utilization of primary care. Non-adherence is associated with foreign citizenship, transplant, chronic kidney disease/dialysis, diabetes, heart failure, arterial or cerebral vasculopathy, IBD, neurological diseases, residence in assisted living facilities, use of integrated home care, and presence of disability. CONCLUSIONS: this is the first study conducted in the Lombardy Region which explores the theme of equity of access to organized screenings. This analysis highlights how sociodemographic determinants, chronic conditions, and access to the healthcare and social healthcare system constitute significant risk factors for non-adherence to screening programmes. Based on the results of this analysis, communication and/or organizational change interventions will be developed to counteract inequalities in access to effective prevention procedures.

Impact of chronic GLP-1 RA and SGLT-2I therapy on in-hospital outcome of diabetic patients with acute myocardial infarction.

BACKGROUND: Glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1 RA) and sodium glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors (SGLT-2i) demonstrated cardiovascular and renal protection. Whether their benefits occur also during hospitalization for acute myocardial infarction (AMI) in patients with diabetes mellitus (DM) is not known. We evaluated in-hospital outcomes of patients hospitalized with AMI according to their chronic use of GLP-1 RA and/or SGLT-2i. METHODS: Using the health administrative databases of Lombardy, patients hospitalized with AMI from 2010 to 2019 were included. They were stratified according to DM status, then grouped into three cohorts using a propensity score matching: non-DM patients; DM patients treated with GLP-1 RA and/or SGLT-2i; DM patients not treated with GLP-1 RA/SGLT-2i. The primary endpoint of the study was the composite of in-hospital mortality, acute heart failure, and acute kidney injury requiring renal replacement therapy. RESULTS: We identified 146,798 patients hospitalized with AMI (mean age 71 ± 13 years, 34% females, 47% STEMI; 26% with DM). After matching, 3,090 AMI patients (1030 in each group) were included in the analysis. Overall, the primary endpoint rate was 16% (n = 502) and progressively increased from non-DM patients to DM patients treated with and without GLP-1 RA/SGLT-2i (13%, 16%, and 20%, respectively; P < 0.0001). Compared with non-DM patients, DM patients with GLP-1 RA/SGLT-2i had a 30% higher risk of the primary endpoint, while those not treated with GLP-1 RA/SGLT-2i had a 60% higher risk (P < 0.0001). CONCLUSION: Chronic therapy with GLP-1 RA and/or SGLT-2i has a favorable impact on the clinical outcome of DM patients hospitalized with AMI.

Prognostic Impact of Percutaneous Coronary Intervention in Chronic Dialysis Patients with Acute Myocardial Infarction: Findings from the Lombardy Health Database.

Background: Patients on chronic dialysis are less likely to be treated with percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) for acute myocardial infarction (AMI). This is due to the lack of evidence from randomized trials, concerns about possible PCI-related side effects, and multimorbidity. Therefore, routine use of PCI for treatment of dialysis patients with AMI remains an unresolved issue. Methods: We analyzed data of patients on chronic dialysis hospitalized with AMI from 2003 to 2018, by using the administrative Lombardy Health Database (Italy). Patients were grouped according to whether they underwent or not PCI during index hospitalization. The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality, 1-year mortality was the secondary endpoint. Results: During the study period, 265,048 patients were hospitalized with AMI. Of them, 3206 (1.2%) were on chronic dialysis (age 71 ± 11; 72% males). Among dialysis patients, 44% underwent PCI, while 54% underwent PCI among non-dialysis patients (p < 0.0001). Dialysis was an independent predictor of treatment with medical therapy only (OR 0.75 [95% CI 0.70-0.81]). In-hospital mortality in the dialysis cohort was 15%, significantly lower in patients treated with PCI than in those not treated with PCI (11% vs. 19%; p < 0.0001). One-year mortality was 47% and it was lower in PCI-treated patients (33% vs. 52%; p < 0.0001). The adjusted risk of the study endpoints was significantly lower in dialysis patients undergoing PCI: OR 0.62 (95% CI 0.50-0.76) for in-hospital mortality; HR 0.63 (95% CI 0.56-0.71) for 1-year mortality. Conclusions: This study showed that in AMI patients on chronic dialysis, PCI is associated with a significant in-hospital and 1-year survival benefit. Yet, they underwent PCI less frequently than patients with preserved renal function.

COVID-19-associated Guillain-Barré syndrome in the early pandemic experience in Lombardia (Italy).

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the incidence and describe clinical characteristics and outcome of GBS in COVID-19 patients (COVID19-GBS) in one of the most hit regions during the first pandemic wave, Lombardia. METHODS: Adult patients admitted to 20 Neurological Units between 1/3-30/4/2020 with COVID19-GBS were included as part of a multi-center study organized by the Italian society of Hospital Neuroscience (SNO). RESULTS: Thirty-eight COVID19-GBS patients had a mean age of 60.7 years and male frequency of 86.8%. CSF albuminocytological dissociation was detected in 71.4%, and PCR for SARS-CoV-2 was negative in 19 tested patients. Based on neurophysiology, 81.8% of patients had a diagnosis of AIDP, 12.1% of AMSAN, and 6.1% of AMAN. The course was favorable in 76.3% of patients, stable in 10.5%, while 13.2% worsened, of which 3 died. The estimated occurrence rate in Lombardia ranges from 0.5 to 0.05 GBS cases per 1000 COVID-19 infections depending on whether you consider positive cases or estimated seropositive cases. When we compared GBS cases with the pre-pandemic period, we found a reduction of cases from 165 to 135 cases in the 2-month study period in Lombardia. CONCLUSIONS: We detected an increased incidence of GBS in COVID-19 patients which can reflect a higher risk of GBS in COVID-19 patients and a reduction of GBS events during the pandemic period possibly due to a lower spread of more common respiratory infectious diseases determined by an increased use of preventive measures.

Determinants of immunosuppressive therapy in renal transplant recipients: an Italian observational study (the CESIT project).

BACKGROUND: Very scanty evidence is available on factors influencing the choice of immunosuppressive drug therapy after kidney transplantation. METHODS: An Italian multiregional real-world study was conducted integrating national transplant information system and claims data. All patients undergoing kidney transplantation for the first time during 2009-2019 (incident patients) were considered. Multilevel logistic models were used to estimate Odds Ratio (OR) and corresponding 95% Confidence intervals. Factors with statistically significance were identified as characteristics associated with treatment regimens: cyclosporin-CsA vs tacrolimus-Tac and, within the latter group, mTOR inhibitors vs mycophenolate-MMF. RESULTS: We identified 3,622 kidney patients undergoing transplantation in 17 hospitals located in 4 Italian regions, 78.3% was treated with TAC-based therapy, of which 78% and 22% in combination with MMF and mTOR, respectively. For both comparison groups, the choice of immunosuppressive regimens was mostly guided by standard hospital practices. Only few recipient and donor characteristics were found associated with specific regimen (donor/receipt age, immunological risk and diabetes). CONCLUSIONS: The choice of post-renal transplant immunosuppressive therapy seems to be mostly driven by standard Centre practices, while only partially based on patient's characteristics and recognized international guidelines.

Detecting early signals of COVID-19 outbreaks in 2020 in small areas by monitoring healthcare utilisation databases: first lessons learned from the Italian Alert_CoV project.

BackgroundDuring the COVID-19 pandemic, large-scale diagnostic testing and contact tracing have proven insufficient to promptly monitor the spread of infections.AimTo develop and retrospectively evaluate a system identifying aberrations in the use of selected healthcare services to timely detect COVID-19 outbreaks in small areas.MethodsData were retrieved from the healthcare utilisation (HCU) databases of the Lombardy Region, Italy. We identified eight services suggesting a respiratory infection (syndromic proxies). Count time series reporting the weekly occurrence of each proxy from 2015 to 2020 were generated considering small administrative areas (i.e. census units of Cremona and Mantua provinces). The ability to uncover aberrations during 2020 was tested for two algorithms: the improved Farrington algorithm and the generalised likelihood ratio-based procedure for negative binomial counts. To evaluate these algorithms' performance in detecting outbreaks earlier than the standard surveillance, confirmed outbreaks, defined according to the weekly number of confirmed COVID-19 cases, were used as reference. Performances were assessed separately for the first and second semester of the year. Proxies positively impacting performance were identified.ResultsWe estimated that 70% of outbreaks could be detected early using the proposed approach, with a corresponding false positive rate of ca 20%. Performance did not substantially differ either between algorithms or semesters. The best proxies included emergency calls for respiratory or infectious disease causes and emergency room visits.ConclusionImplementing HCU-based monitoring systems in small areas deserves further investigations as it could facilitate the containment of COVID-19 and other unknown infectious diseases in the future.

Breastfeeding and presence of the companion of woman's choice during COVID-19 pandemic in Italy: regional population-based routine data and best practices at birth

OBJECTIVES: to describe the monthly trend of breastfeeding during hospitalization and the presence of companion of woman's choice during labour and birth, and the key regional responders' perspective of homogeneity/heterogeneity of the presence of the support person, before, during (February-May 2020), and after the first COVID-19 pandemic wave in a few Italian Regions. DESIGN: two-phase study. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: data from the italian birth certificate of six Italian Regions between 01.01.2019 and 31.03.2021 were analysed. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with the key regional respondents. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: the frequency distributions of breastfeeding and the presence of companion of woman's choice were calculated as a whole and for each Region. RESULTS: the infant feeding practices experienced smaller changes during COVID-19 pandemic than the presence of the companion of woman's choice during labour and birth, from January 2019 to March 2021. The highest value of exclusive breastfeeding was recorded in September 2020 (72.1%; 95%CI 71.3-72.8) in all Regions, while the lowest was recorded in March 2021 (62.5%; 95%CI 61.5-63.4). The presence of companion of woman's choice during labour and birth decreased during the pandemic and did not return to pre-pandemic levels. The highest value of presence of father during birth was recorded in March 2019 (59.0%; 95%CI 58.2-59.8), while the lowest in April 2020 (50.0%; 95%CI 49.1-50.8). The main emerging themes were: the existence of national, regional and local indications; the facilitators (e.g., Baby-Friendly Hospital Initiative implementation, strong motivation of the staff) and the critical points (e.g., inadequate analysis of the clinical-epidemiological context, inhomogeneous indications) of management of the support person presence. CONCLUSIONS: the emergency has changed the provision of health services that not always guaranteed the application of best practices. It would be desirable to work for assessing the appropriateness of the birth certificate data to collect more accurate information and to provide clinical recommendations.

Postmarketing active surveillance of myocarditis and pericarditis following vaccination with COVID-19 mRNA vaccines in persons aged 12 to 39 years in Italy: A multi-database, self-controlled case series study.

BACKGROUND: Myocarditis and pericarditis following the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) mRNA vaccines administration have been reported, but their frequency is still uncertain in the younger population. This study investigated the association between Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) mRNA vaccines, BNT162b2, and mRNA-1273 and myocarditis/pericarditis in the population of vaccinated persons aged 12 to 39 years in Italy. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We conducted a self-controlled case series study (SCCS) using national data on COVID-19 vaccination linked to emergency care/hospital discharge databases. The outcome was the first diagnosis of myocarditis/pericarditis between 27 December 2020 and 30 September 2021. Exposure risk period (0 to 21 days from the vaccination day, subdivided in 3 equal intervals) for first and second dose was compared with baseline period. The SCCS model, adapted to event-dependent exposures, was fitted using unbiased estimating equations to estimate relative incidences (RIs) and excess of cases (EC) per 100,000 vaccinated by dose, age, sex, and vaccine product. Calendar period was included as time-varying confounder in the model. During the study period 2,861,809 persons aged 12 to 39 years received mRNA vaccines (2,405,759 BNT162b2; 456,050 mRNA-1273); 441 participants developed myocarditis/pericarditis (346 BNT162b2; 95 mRNA-1273). Within the 21-day risk interval, 114 myocarditis/pericarditis events occurred, the RI was 1.99 (1.30 to 3.05) after second dose of BNT162b2 and 2.22 (1.00 to 4.91) and 2.63 (1.21 to 5.71) after first and second dose of mRNA-1273. During the [0 to 7) days risk period, an increased risk of myocarditis/pericarditis was observed after first dose of mRNA-1273, with RI of 6.55 (2.73 to 15.72), and after second dose of BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273, with RIs of 3.39 (2.02 to 5.68) and 7.59 (3.26 to 17.65). The number of EC for second dose of mRNA-1273 was 5.5 per 100,000 vaccinated (3.0 to 7.9). The highest risk was observed in males, at [0 to 7) days after first and second dose of mRNA-1273 with RI of 12.28 (4.09 to 36.83) and RI of 11.91 (3.88 to 36.53); the number of EC after the second dose of mRNA-1273 was 8.8 (4.9 to 12.9). Among those aged 12 to 17 years, the RI was of 5.74 (1.52 to 21.72) after second dose of BNT162b2; for this age group, the number of events was insufficient for estimating RIs after mRNA-1273. Among those aged 18 to 29 years, the RIs were 7.58 (2.62 to 21.94) after first dose of mRNA-1273 and 4.02 (1.81 to 8.91) and 9.58 (3.32 to 27.58) after second dose of BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273; the numbers of EC were 3.4 (1.1 to 6.0) and 8.6 (4.4 to 12.6) after first and second dose of mRNA-1273. The main study limitations were that the outcome was not validated through review of clinical records, and there was an absence of information on the length of hospitalization and, thus, the severity of the outcome. CONCLUSIONS: This population-based study of about 3 millions of residents in Italy suggested that mRNA vaccines were associated with myocarditis/pericarditis in the population younger than 40 years. According to our results, increased risk of myocarditis/pericarditis was associated with the second dose of BNT162b2 and both doses of mRNA-1273. The highest risks were observed in males of 12 to 39 years and in males and females 18 to 29 years vaccinated with mRNA-1273. The public health implication of these findings should be considered in the light of the proven mRNA vaccine effectiveness in preventing serious COVID-19 disease and death.

Protective action of natural and induced immunization against the occurrence of delta or alpha variants of SARS-CoV-2 infection: a test-negative case-control study.

BACKGROUND: The evolution of SARS-CoV-2 has led to the emergence of several new variants, and few data are available on the impact of vaccination on SARS-CoV-2 variants. We aimed to assess the association between natural (previous infection) and induced (partial or complete vaccination) exposure to SARS-CoV-2 and the onset of new infection supported by the delta variant, and of comparing it with that supported by alpha. METHODS: We performed a test-negative case-control study, by linking population-based registries of confirmed diagnoses of infection with SARS-CoV-2, vaccinations against Covid-19 and healthcare utilization databases of the Italian Lombardy Region. Four hundred ninety-six persons who between 27 December 2020 and 16 July 2021 had an infection by the delta variant were 1:1 matched with citizens affected by alphavariant and 1:10 matched with persons who had a negative molecular test, according to gender, age and date of molecular ascertainment. We used a conditional logistic regression for estimating relative risk reduction of either variants associated with natural and/or induced immunization and corresponding 95% confidence interval (CI). RESULTS: Previous infection was associated with 91% (95% CI 85% to 95%) reduced relative risk of reinfection, without evidence of significant differences between delta and alpha cases (p=0.547). Significant lower vaccinal protection against delta than alpha variant infection was observed with reduced relative risk associated with partial vaccination respectively of 29% (7% to 45%), and 62% (48% to 71%) (p=0.001), and with complete vaccination respectively of 75% (66% to 82%) and 90% (85% to 94%) (p=0.003). CONCLUSIONS: Lower protection towards infections caused by the delta variant with respect to alpha variant was noticed, even after the completion of the vaccination cycle. This finding would support efforts to maximize both vaccine uptake with two doses and fulfilment with individual protection measures, especially as the delta variant is rampant worldwide presently.

Factors associated with severe or fatal clinical manifestations of SARS-CoV-2 infection after receiving the third dose of vaccine.

BACKGROUND: Little is known about vulnerability to severe COVID-19 illness after vaccination completion with three doses of vaccine against COVID-19. OBJECTIVES: To identify individual features associated with increased risk of severe clinical manifestation of SARS-CoV-2 infections after receiving the third dose of vaccine against COVID-19. METHODS: We performed a nested case-control study based on 3,360,116 citizens from Lombardy, Italy, aged 12 years or older who received the third dose of vaccine against COVID-19 from 20 September through 31 December 2021. Individuals were followed from 14 days after vaccination completion until the occurrence of severe COVID-19 illness, death unrelated to COVID-19, emigration or 15 March 2022. For each case, controls were randomly selected to be 1:10 matched for the date of vaccination completion and municipality of residence. The association between candidate predictors and outcome was assessed through multivariable conditional logistic regression models. RESULTS: During 12,538,330 person-months of follow-up, 5171 cases of severe illness occurred. As age increased, a trend towards increasing odds of severe illness was observed. Male gender was a significant risk factor. As the number of contacts with the Regional Health Service increased, a trend towards increasing odds of severe illness was observed. Having had a previous SARS-CoV-2 infection was a significant protective factor. Having received the Moderna vaccine significantly decreased the odds of severe illness. Significant higher odds were associated with 42 diseases/conditions. Odds ratios ranged from 1.23 (diseases of the musculoskeletal system) to 5.00 (autoimmune disease). CONCLUSIONS: This study provides useful insights for establishing priority in fourth-dose vaccination programs.

Impact of the post-COVID-19 condition on health care after the first disease wave in Lombardy.

BACKGROUND: Lombardy was affected in the early months of 2020 by the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic with very high morbidity and mortality. The post-COVID-19 condition and related public health burden are scarcely known. SETTING AND DESIGN: Using the regional population administrative database including all the 48,932 individuals who survived COVID-19 and became polymerase-chain-reaction negative for SARS-CoV-2 by 31 May 2020, incident mortality, rehospitalizations, attendances to hospital emergency room, and outpatient medical visits were evaluated over a mid-term period of 6 months in 20,521 individuals managed at home, 26,016 hospitalized in medical wards, and 1611 in intensive care units (ICUs). These data were also evaluated in the corresponding period of 2019, when the region was not yet affected by the pandemic. Other indicators and proxies of the health-care burden related to the post-COVID condition were also evaluated. MAIN RESULTS: In individuals previously admitted to the ICU and medical wards, rehospitalizations, attendances to hospital emergency rooms, and out-patient medical visits were much more frequent in the 6-month period after SARS-CoV-2 negativization than in the same prepandemic period. Performances of spirometry increased more than 50-fold, chest CT scans 32-fold in ICU-admitted cases and 5.5-fold in non-ICU cases, and electrocardiography 5.6-fold in ICU cases and twofold in non-ICU cases. Use of drugs and biochemical tests increased in all cases. CONCLUSIONS: These results provide a real-life picture of the post-COVID condition and of its effects on the increased consumption of health-care resources, considered proxies of comorbidities.

Metformin use is associated with a decrease in the risk of hospitalization and mortality in COVID-19 patients with diabetes: A population-based study in Lombardy.

AIM: To compare the association of metformin use and coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outcomes in a cohort of 31 966 patients with diabetes in Lombardy. METHODS: We used a COVID-19 linkable administrative regional database to select patients with diabetes who were aged 40 years or older. They had at least two prescriptions of antidiabetic drugs in 2019 and a positive test for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 from 15 February 2020 to 15 March 2021. The association of metformin use and clinical outcomes was assessed by multivariable logistic regression analyses and after propensity score matching (PSM). Clinical outcomes were all-cause mortality, in-hospital mortality, hospitalization for COVID-19, and admission to an intensive care unit (ICU). RESULTS: In multivariable models, metformin use was associated with a significantly lower risk of total mortality (OR 0.70; 95% CI 0.66-0.75), in-hospital mortality (OR 0.68; 95% CI 0.63-0.73), hospitalization for COVID-19 (OR 0.86; 95% CI 0.81-0.91), and ICU admission (OR 0.81; 95% CI 0.69-0.94) compared with metformin non-users. Results were similar after PSM; metformin was associated with a significantly lower risk of total mortality (OR 0.79; 95% CI 0.73-0.86), in-hospital mortality (OR 0.74; 95% CI 0.67-0.81), and ICU admission (OR 0.77; 95% CI 0.63-0.95). CONCLUSIONS: In this large cohort, metformin use was associated with a protective effect in COVID-19 clinical outcomes, suggesting that it might be a potentially useful drug to prevent severe COVID-19 disease, although randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are needed to confirm this. While awaiting the results of RCTs, we suggest continuing prescribing metformin to COVID-19 patients with diabetes.

Increased risk of myocarditis and pericarditis and reduced likelihood of severe clinical outcomes associated with COVID-19 vaccination: a cohort study in Lombardy, Italy.

INTRODUCTION: We aimed to assess harms (post-vaccine myocarditis and pericarditis) and benefits (preventing severe disease) of COVID-19 vaccination. METHODS: We conducted a population-based retrospective cohort study. Using the integrated platform of the vaccination campaign of Lombardy Region (Italy), after the exclusion of 24,188 individuals not beneficiaries of the Regional Health Service, 9,184,146 citizens candidates to vaccine at December 27, 2020 were followed until November 30, 2021 (the loss to follow-up rate was 0.5%). From the date of administration of each vaccine dose to day 28 post-administration, three periods that covered exposure to the first, second, and third dose were defined. The benefit-risk profile of vaccines was performed by comparing the number needed to harm (NNH) and number needed to treat (NNT) by sex, age, and vaccine type. RESULTS: Incidence rates of myocarditis were 9.9 and 5.2 per million person-months during the exposure and no-exposure periods, respectively, and the incidence rates of pericarditis were 19.5 and 15.9 per million person-months, respectively. The risk of myocarditis was highest following exposure to the second dose of the Moderna vaccine (adjusted HR: 5.5, 95% CI: 3.7 to 8.1). Exposure to the Moderna vaccine was also associated with an increased risk of pericarditis (adjusted HR 2.2, 1.5 to 3.1). NNT was higher than NNH (9471 vs. 7213) for 16 to 19-year-old men who received the Moderna vaccine, while all other sex, age, and vaccine subgroups had a favourable harm-benefit profile. CONCLUSIONS: Men 16 to 19 years of age has the highest rates of myocarditis within a few days after receiving the Moderna vaccines. The balance between harms and benefits was almost always in favour of vaccination.

[The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Italian and foreign population in the various phases: the results of an interregional multicentre project]. / L'impatto della pandemia di COVID-19 nella popolazione italiana e straniera residente nelle diverse fasi: i risultati di un progetto multicentrico inter-regionale.

OBJECTIVES: to analyze the difference of the SARS-CoV-2 infection impact between Italian and foreigner subjects, evaluating the trend of infections and access to diagnostic tests (molecular or antigenic swabs for the detection of SARS- CoV-2) in the two different populations, inducing the detection of new positive cases in the population. DESIGN: retrospective population study for the period February 2020-June 2021. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Italian and foreign resident population on 1st January of the years 2020 and 2021 in the Regions participating to the project: Piedmont, Lombardy, Veneto, Emilia-Romagna (Northern Italy), Tuscany, Lazio (Central Italy), and Sicily (Southern Italy). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: in the two populations, for every week and aggregated by macropandemic period were calculated: • the test rate (people tested on the population); • the swab positivity rate (positive subjects on those who are tested); • the new positives (positive subjects on study population); • the percentage of foreigners among the new positive cases. The ratio of the value of the indicators in the foreign and Italian populations (with 95% confidence interval) was calculated to evaluate the association between nationality (Italian vs not Italian) and outcome. The analyses were conducted at the regional level and at pool level. RESULTS: the trend of new positives by nationality (Italian vs not Italian) has a similar tendency in the different pandemic waves. However, the incidence of new positives during pandemic waves among foreigners is lower than in Italians, while it tends to increase during intermediate periods. Except for the summer periods, foreigners are less tested than Italians, but the percentage of new positives out of the total of new ones tested is higher among foreigners compared to Italians. The relative weight of new positives among foreigners tends to increase in periods with the greatest risk of inflow of SARS-CoV-2 for foreigners. CONCLUSIONS: the epidemic trends in the two populations are similar, although foreigners tend to show lower incidence values, probably in part because they are tested less frequently. Furthermore, in foreigners compared to Italians, there is a greater risk of contracting SARS-CoV-2 infection, especially in periods of relaxation of containment Coronavirus measures, reopening of national borders, production and commercial activities.

Access to SARS-CoV-2 diagnostic tests: are there barriers for the immigrants in Italy?

OBJECTIVES: to describe the epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 infection in relation with the use of nasal swabs in the immigrant population in Italy, using data from the COVID-19 national surveillance system and to verify if a difference is present comparing natives and immigrant. DESIGN: descriptive study based on longitudinal health-administrative data. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: general population of six Italian Regions (Piedmont, Lombardy, Veneto, Emilia-Romagna, Tuscany, Lazio) covering about 55% of the resident population and 72% of foreigners' population. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: regional rates of access to at least a nasal swab, separately by country of origin. RESULTS: across all the periods, a lower rate in the foreigners' group was observed, with the only exception of the period May-June 2021. Considering separately High Migratory Pressure Countries (HMPCs) and Highly Developed Countries (HDCs), a higher proportion of nasal swabs performed in people coming from HDC with respect to HMPCs and natives was noticed. This observation is consistent in males and females. CONCLUSIONS: during the first wave of the pandemic, Italians have had a higher proportion of nasal swabs compared to migrants across all Regions. This difference disappeared in the following periods, probably due to a major availability of diagnostic tests.

[SARS-CoV-2 epidemic among Italians e resident immigrant population: differential incidence from an interregional multicentre study]. / L'epidemia di SARS-CoV-2 nella popolazione italiana e straniera: differenze di incidenza che emergono da uno studio multicentrico interregionale.

OBJECTIVES: to describe differences in the incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infections between Italians and foreigners residing in seven Italian Regions during the different phases of the pandemic and by gender. DESIGN: retrospective observational study. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: all confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infections from 02.02. 2020 to 16.07.2021 in the seven Regions under study were included. Italian resident population calculated by the National Institute of Statistics as of 01.01.2020 was used to calculate the rates. The considered period is divided into 5 sub-periods (phases). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: number of confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infections in the five phases of the pandemic and crude rates by citizenship (Italian vs foreign). Distribution of infections by age group and by week. Crude and age-adjusted incidence rates ratios (IRR) were calculated, by Region, gender, and phase of the pandemic. RESULTS: an epidemic curve delay was observed in foreigners in the first phase of the epidemic, in particular in the northern Regions, the most affected in that phase. The first phase of the epidemic was characterized by a greater proportion of cases occurred in people aged over 60 years than the other phases, both in Italians and in foreigners. The incidence among foreigners is higher during the summer of 2020 (intermediate period: June-September 2020) and during the last period (May-July 2021) in all Regions. The overall figure shows a lower incidence among foreigners than Italians, except for males in Tuscany. CONCLUSIONS: the lower incidence rates among foreigners should be interpreted with caution as the available data suggest that it is at least partly attributable to less access to diagnostic tests. Regional differences found in the study deserve further research together with the effect of gender and country of origin.

[Mortality and impact of COVID-19 by citizenship in seven Italian Regions from the beginning of the pandemic to mid-July 2021]. / Mortalità per COVID-19 nella popolazione immigrata in sette Regioni italiane da inizio pandemia a metà luglio 2021.

OBJECTIVES: to quantify the variability of COVID-19 mortality from the beginning of the pandemic to mid-July 2021, in relation to the immigrant status and by Region and period. DESIGN: observational incidence study. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: the study population consists of the residents at the beginning of 2020 in seven Regions (Piedmont, Lombardy, Veneto, Emilia-Romagna, Tuscany, Lazio, Sicily) aged <=74 years. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: absolute frequency of deaths occurred in subjects who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2, crude and standardized rates (standard: Italian population at the beginning of 2020), and mortality rates ratios (obtained using Poisson models), by immigrant status and stratified by gender, Region of residence, and period. The study period was divided into 5 subperiods: 22.02.2020-25.05.2020, 26.05.2020-02.10.2020, 03.10.2020-26.02.2021, 27.02.2021-16.07.2021. RESULTS: the study includes more than one half of the Italian population and most of the immigrants residing in the country, who are younger than Italians and experienced fewer COVID-19 deaths. Deaths among those who tested positive varied greatly between Regions and periods; standardized rates showed considerable increases over time among immigrants. In terms of rate ratios, there were excesses among immigrant males in the third period (MRR: 1.46; 95%CI 1.30-1.65) and in the fourth period (MRR: 1.55; 95%CI 1, 34-1.81). Among immigrant females, there is an indication of lower risk in the third period (MRR: 0.79; 95%CI 0.65-0.97) and of greater risk in the fourth period (MRR: 1. 46; 95%CI 1.21-1.77). Finally, the effect is modified by the Region of residence, both in the third and in the fourth period for males and only in the fourth period for females. CONCLUSIONS: the risk of premature mortality due to COVID-19 is linked to immigrant status and with an intensity that varies by gender, Region, and period. More accessible tools for prevention, diagnosis and early healthcare can support immigrant communities in managing the risk factors linked to the spread of infections and, in particular, counteract their evolution into more severe disease outcomes.