Uncertainty in learning and decision-making: Introduction to the special issue.

Uncertainty is a fundamental aspect of the environment. This special issue presents interdisciplinary research on decision-making and learning under uncertainty. Thirty-one research and review papers report the findings of the behavioral, neural, and computational bases of coping with uncertainty, as well as changes of these mechanisms in development, aging, and psychopathology. Taken together, this special issue presents extant research, identifies gaps in our knowledge, and offers paths for future directions.

Evidence for a minimal role of stimulus awareness in reversal of threat learning.

In an ever-changing environment, survival depends on learning which stimuli represent threat, and also on updating such associations when circumstances shift. It has been claimed that humans can acquire physiological responses to threat-associated stimuli even when they are unaware of them, but the role of awareness in updating threat contingencies remains unknown. This complex process-generating novel responses while suppressing learned ones-relies on distinct neural mechanisms from initial learning, and has only been shown with awareness. Can it occur unconsciously? Here, we present evidence that threat reversal may not require awareness. Participants underwent classical threat conditioning to visual stimuli that were suppressed from awareness. One of two images was paired with an electric shock; halfway through the experiment, contingencies were reversed and the shock was paired with the other image. Despite variations in suppression across participants, we found that physiological responses reflected changes in stimulus-threat pairings independently of stimulus awareness. These findings suggest that unconscious affective processing may be sufficiently flexible to adapt to changing circumstances.

The effects of age on reward magnitude processing in the monetary incentive delay task.

Previous studies have suggested age-related differences in reward-directed behavior and cerebral processes in support of the age effects. However, it remains unclear how age may influence the processing of reward magnitude. Here, with 54 volunteers (22-74 years of age) participating in the Monetary Incentive Delay Task (MIDT) with explicit cues ($1, ¢1, or nil) and timed response to win, we characterized brain activations during anticipation and feedback and the effects of age on these regional activations. Behaviorally, age was associated with less reaction time (RT) difference between dollar and cent trials, as a result of slower response to the dollar trials; i.e., age was positively correlated with RT dollar - RT cent, with RT nil as a covariate. Both age and the RT difference ($1 - ¢1) were correlated with diminished activation of the right caudate head, right anterior insula, supplementary motor area (SMA)/pre-SMA, visual cortex, parahippocampal gyrus, right superior/middle frontal gyri, and left primary motor cortex during anticipation of $1 vs. ¢1 reward. Further, these regional activities mediated the age effects on RT differences. In responses to outcomes, age was associated with decreases in regional activations to dollar vs. cent loss but only because of higher age-related responses to cent losses. Together, these findings suggest age-related differences in sensitivity to the magnitude of reward. With lower cerebral responses during anticipation to win large rewards and higher responses to outcomes of small loss, aging incurs a constricted sensitivity to the magnitude of reward.

POSTTRAUMATIC STRESS SYMPTOMS AND AVERSION TO AMBIGUOUS LOSSES IN COMBAT VETERANS.

BACKGROUND: Psychiatric symptoms typically cut across traditional diagnostic categories. In order to devise individually tailored treatments, there is a need to identify the basic mechanisms that underlie these symptoms. Behavioral economics provides a framework for studying these mechanisms at the behavioral level. Here, we utilized this framework to examine a widely ignored aspect of trauma-related symptomatology-individual uncertainty attitudes-in combat veterans with and without posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). METHODS: Fifty-seven combat veterans, including 30 with PTSD and 27 without PTSD, completed a risk and ambiguity decision-making task that characterizes individual uncertainty attitudes, distinguishing between attitudes toward uncertain outcomes with known ("risk") and unknown ("ambiguity") probabilities, and between attitudes toward uncertain gains and uncertain losses. Participants' choices were used to estimate risk and ambiguity attitudes in the gain and loss domains. RESULTS: Veterans with PTSD were more averse to ambiguity, but not risk, compared to veterans without PTSD, when making choices between possible losses, but not gains. The degree of aversion was associated with anxious arousal (e.g., hypervigilance) symptoms, as well as with the degree of combat exposure. Moreover, ambiguity attitudes fully mediated the association between combat exposure and anxious arousal symptoms. CONCLUSIONS: These results provide a foundation for prospective studies of the causal association between ambiguity attitudes and trauma-related symptoms, as well as etiologic studies of the neural underpinnings of these behavioral outcomes. More generally, these results demonstrate the potential of neuroeconomic and behavioral economic techniques for devising objective and incentive-compatible diagnostic tools, and investigating the etiology of psychiatric disorders.

Like cognitive function, decision making across the life span shows profound age-related changes.

It has long been known that human cognitive function improves through young adulthood and then declines across the later life span. Here we examined how decision-making function changes across the life span by measuring risk and ambiguity attitudes in the gain and loss domains, as well as choice consistency, in an urban cohort ranging in age from 12 to 90 y. We identified several important age-related patterns in decision making under uncertainty: First, we found that healthy elders between the ages of 65 and 90 were strikingly inconsistent in their choices compared with younger subjects. Just as elders show profound declines in cognitive function, they also show profound declines in choice rationality compared with their younger peers. Second, we found that the widely documented phenomenon of ambiguity aversion is specific to the gain domain and does not occur in the loss domain, except for a slight effect in older adults. Finally, extending an earlier report by our group, we found that risk attitudes across the life span show an inverted U-shaped function; both elders and adolescents are more risk-averse than their midlife counterparts. Taken together, these characterizations of decision-making function across the life span in this urban cohort strengthen the conclusions of previous reports suggesting a profound impact of aging on cognitive function in this domain.

Neuroanatomy predicts individual risk attitudes.

Over the course of the last decade a multitude of studies have investigated the relationship between neural activations and individual human decision-making. Here we asked whether the anatomical features of individual human brains could be used to predict the fundamental preferences of human choosers. To that end, we quantified the risk attitudes of human decision-makers using standard economic tools and quantified the gray matter cortical volume in all brain areas using standard neurobiological tools. Our whole-brain analysis revealed that the gray matter volume of a region in the right posterior parietal cortex was significantly predictive of individual risk attitudes. Participants with higher gray matter volume in this region exhibited less risk aversion. To test the robustness of this finding we examined a second group of participants and used econometric tools to test the ex ante hypothesis that gray matter volume in this area predicts individual risk attitudes. Our finding was confirmed in this second group. Our results, while being silent about causal relationships, identify what might be considered the first stable biomarker for financial risk-attitude. If these results, gathered in a population of midlife northeast American adults, hold in the general population, they will provide constraints on the possible neural mechanisms underlying risk attitudes. The results will also provide a simple measurement of risk attitudes that could be easily extracted from abundance of existing medical brain scans, and could potentially provide a characteristic distribution of these attitudes for policy makers.

Adolescents' risk-taking behavior is driven by tolerance to ambiguity.

Adolescents engage in a wide range of risky behaviors that their older peers shun, and at an enormous cost. Despite being older, stronger, and healthier than children, adolescents face twice the risk of mortality and morbidity faced by their younger peers. Are adolescents really risk-seekers or does some richer underlying preference drive their love of the uncertain? To answer that question, we used standard experimental economic methods to assess the attitudes of 65 individuals ranging in age from 12 to 50 toward risk and ambiguity. Perhaps surprisingly, we found that adolescents were, if anything, more averse to clearly stated risks than their older peers. What distinguished adolescents was their willingness to accept ambiguous conditions--situations in which the likelihood of winning and losing is unknown. Though adults find ambiguous monetary lotteries undesirable, adolescents find them tolerable. This finding suggests that the higher level of risk-taking observed among adolescents may reflect a higher tolerance for the unknown. Biologically, such a tolerance may make sense, because it would allow young organisms to take better advantage of learning opportunities; it also suggests that policies that seek to inform adolescents of the risks, costs, and benefits of unexperienced dangerous behaviors may be effective and, when appropriate, could be used to complement policies that limit their experiences.

Unpacking workplace stress and forensic expert decision-making: From theory to practice.

Workplace stress can affect forensic experts' job satisfaction and performance, which holds financial and other implications for forensic service providers. Therefore, it is important to understand and manage workplace stress, but that is not simple or straightforward. This paper explores stress as a human factor that influences forensic expert decision-making. First, we identify and highlight three factors that mitigate decisions under stress conditions: nature of decision, individual differences, and context of decision. Second, we situate workplace stress in forensic science within the Challenge-Hindrance Stressor Framework. We argue that stressors in forensic science workplaces can have a positive or a negative impact, depending on the type, level, and context of stress. Developing an understanding of the stressors, their sources, and their possible impact can help forensic service providers and researchers to implement context-specific interventions to manage stress at work and optimize expert performance.

Manipulating the reliability of target-color information modulates value-driven attentional capture.

Previously rewarded stimuli slow response times (RTs) during visual search, despite being physically non-salient and no longer task-relevant or rewarding. Such value-driven attentional capture (VDAC) has been measured in a training-test paradigm. In the training phase, the search target is rendered in one of two colors (one predicting high reward and the other low reward). In this study, we modified this traditional training phase to include pre-cues that signaled reliable or unreliable information about the trial-to-trial color of the training phase search target. Reliable pre-cues indicated the upcoming target color with certainty, whereas unreliable pre-cues indicated the target was equally likely to be one of two distinct colors. Thus reliable and unreliable pre-cues provided certain and uncertain information, respectively, about the magnitude of the upcoming reward. We then tested for VDAC in a traditional test phase. We found that unreliably pre-cued distractors slowed RTs and drew more initial eye movements during search for the test-phase target, relative to reliably pre-cued distractors, thus providing novel evidence for an influence of information reliability on attentional capture. That said, our experimental manipulation also eliminated value-dependency (i.e., slowed RTs when a high-reward-predicting distractor was present relative to a low-reward-predicting distractor) for both kinds of distractors. Taken together, these results suggest that target-color uncertainty, rather than reward magnitude, played a critical role in modulating the allocation of value-driven attention in this study.

Emotional State Transitions in Trauma-Exposed Individuals With and Without Posttraumatic Stress Disorder.

Importance: Posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) is marked by the contrasting symptoms of hyperemotional reactivity and emotional numbing (ie, reduced emotional reactivity). Comprehending the mechanism that governs the transition between neutral and negative emotional states is crucial for developing targeted therapeutic strategies. Objectives: To explore whether individuals with PTSD experience a more pronounced shift between neutral and negative emotional states and how the intensity of emotional numbing symptoms impacts this shift. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cross-sectional study used hierarchical bayesian modeling to fit a 5-parameter logistic regression to analyze the valence ratings of images. The aim was to compare the curve's slope between groups and explore its association with the severity of emotional numbing symptoms. The study was conducted online, using 35 images with a valence range from highly negative to neutral. The rating of these images was used to assess the emotional responses of the participants. The study recruited trauma-exposed individuals (witnessed or experienced life-threatening incident, violent assault, or someone being killed) between January 17 and March 8, 2023. Participants completed the PTSD Checklist for the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (Fifth Edition) (DSM-5) (PCL-5). Exposure: On the basis of DSM-5 criteria (endorsing at least 1 symptom from clusters B and C and 2 from D and E), participants were categorized as having probable PTSD (pPTSD) or as trauma-exposed controls (TECs). Main Outcomes and Measures: The main outcome was the slope parameter (b) of the logistic curve fitted to the valence rating. The slope parameter indicates the rate at which emotional response intensity changes with stimulus valence, reflecting how quickly the transition occurs between neutral and negatively valenced states. The secondary outcome was the association between emotional numbing (PCL-5 items 12-14) and the slope parameter. Results: A total of 1440 trauma-exposed individuals were included. The pPTSD group (n = 445) was younger (mean [SD] age, 36.1 [10.9] years) compared with the TEC group (mean [SD] age, 41.5 [13.3] years; P < .001). Sex distribution (427 women in the TEC group vs 230 in the pPTSD group) did not significantly differ between groups (P = .67). The pPTSD group exhibited a steeper slope (mean slope difference, -0.255; 89% highest posterior density [HPD], -0.340 to -0.171) compared with the controls. Across all individuals (n = 1440), a robust association was found between the slope and emotional numbing severity (mean [SD] additive value, 0.100 [0.031]; 89% HPD, 0.051-0.15). Additional analysis controlling for age confirmed the association between emotional numbing and transition sharpness (mean [SD] additive value, 0.108 [0.032]; 89% HPD, 0.056-0.159), without evidence of an age-related association (mean [SD] additive value, 0.031 [0.033]; 89% HPD, -0.022 to 0.083). Conclusions and Relevance: These findings support that individuals with PTSD undergo rapid transitions between neutral and negative emotional states, a phenomenon intensified by the severity of emotional numbing symptoms. Therapeutic interventions aimed at moderating these swift emotional transitions could potentially alleviate PTSD symptoms.

Effects of a dissociative drug on fronto-limbic resting-state functional connectivity in individuals with posttraumatic stress disorder: a randomized controlled pilot study.

RATIONALE: A subanesthetic dose of ketamine, a non-competitive N-methyl-D-aspartate glutamate receptor (NMDAR) antagonist, elicits dissociation in individuals with posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), who also often suffer from chronic dissociative symptoms in daily life. These debilitating symptoms have not only been linked to worse PTSD trajectories, but also to increased resting-state functional connectivity (RSFC) between medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC) and amygdala, supporting the conceptualization of dissociation as emotion overmodulation. Yet, as studies were observational, causal evidence is lacking. OBJECTIVES: The present randomized controlled pilot study examines the effect of ketamine, a dissociative drug, on RSFC between mPFC subregions and amygdala in individuals with PTSD. METHODS: Twenty-six individuals with PTSD received either ketamine (0.5mg/kg; n = 12) or the control drug midazolam (0.045mg/kg; n = 14) during functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). RSFC between amygdala and mPFC subregions, i.e., ventromedial PFC (vmPFC), dorsomedial PFC (dmPFC) and anterior-medial PFC (amPFC), was assessed at baseline and during intravenous drug infusion. RESULTS: Contrary to pre-registered predictions, ketamine did not promote a greater increase in RSFC between amygdala and mPFC subregions from baseline to infusion compared to midazolam. Instead, ketamine elicited a stronger transient decrease in vmPFC-amygdala RSFC compared to midazolam. CONCLUSIONS: A dissociative drug did not increase fronto-limbic RSFC in individuals with PTSD. These preliminary experimental findings contrast with prior correlative findings and call for further exploration and, potentially, a more differentiated view on the neurobiological underpinning of dissociative phenomena in PTSD.

Quantitative vs. Qualitative Outcomes: A Longitudinal Study of Risk and Ambiguity in Monetary and Medical Decision-Making.

How do decision-makers choose between alternatives offering outcomes that are not easily quantifiable? Previous literature on decisions under uncertainty focused on alternatives with quantifiable outcomes, for example monetary lotteries. In such scenarios, decision-makers make decisions based on success chance, outcome magnitude, and individual preferences for uncertainty. It is not clear, however, how individuals construct subjective values when outcomes are not directly quantifiable. To explore how decision-makers choose when facing non-quantifiable outcomes, we focus here on medical decisions with qualitative outcomes. Specifically, we ask whether decision-makers exhibit the same attitudes towards two types of uncertainty - risk and ambiguity - across domains with quantitative and qualitative outcomes. To answer this question, we designed an online decision-making task where participants made binary choices between alternatives offering either guaranteed lower outcomes or potentially higher outcomes that are associated with some risk and ambiguity. The outcomes of choices were either different magnitudes of monetary gains or levels of improvement in a medical condition. We recruited 429 online participants and repeated the survey in two waves, which allowed us to compare the between-domain attitude consistency with within-domain consistency, over time. We found that risk and ambiguity attitudes were moderately correlated across domains. Over time, risk attitudes had slightly higher correlations compared to across domains, while in ambiguity over-time correlations were slightly weaker. These findings are consistent with the conceptualization of risk attitude as more trait-like, and ambiguity attitudes as more state-like. We discuss the implications and applicability of our novel modeling approach to broader contexts with non-quantifiable outcomes.

Structural Neuroimaging of Hippocampus and Amygdala Subregions in Posttraumatic Stress Disorder: A Scoping Review.

Numerous studies have explored the relationship between posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and the hippocampus and the amygdala because both regions are implicated in the disorder's pathogenesis and pathophysiology. Nevertheless, those key limbic regions consist of functionally and cytoarchitecturally distinct substructures that may play different roles in the etiology of PTSD. Spurred by the availability of automatic segmentation software, structural neuroimaging studies of human hippocampal and amygdala subregions have proliferated in recent years. Here, we present a preregistered scoping review of the existing structural neuroimaging studies of the hippocampus and amygdala subregions in adults diagnosed with PTSD. A total of 3513 studies assessing subregion volumes were identified, 1689 of which were screened, and 21 studies were eligible for this review (total N = 2876 individuals). Most studies examined hippocampal subregions and reported decreased CA1, CA3, dentate gyrus, and subiculum volumes in PTSD. Fewer studies investigated amygdala subregions and reported altered lateral, basal, and central nuclei volumes in PTSD. This review further highlights the conceptual and methodological limitations of the current literature and identifies future directions to increase understanding of the distinct roles of hippocampal and amygdalar subregions in posttraumatic psychopathology.

Evaluating the Evidence for Brain-Based Biotypes of Psychiatric Vulnerability in the Acute Aftermath of Trauma.

OBJECTIVE: The weak link between subjective symptom-based diagnostic methods for posttraumatic psychopathology and objectively measured neurobiological indices forms a barrier to the development of effective personalized treatments. To overcome this problem, recent studies have aimed to stratify psychiatric disorders by identifying consistent subgroups based on objective neural markers. Along these lines, a promising 2021 study by Stevens et al. identified distinct brain-based biotypes associated with different longitudinal patterns of posttraumatic symptoms. Here, the authors conducted a conceptual nonexact replication of that study using a comparable data set from a multimodal longitudinal study of recent trauma survivors. METHODS: A total of 130 participants (mean age, 33.61 years, SD=11.21; 48% women) admitted to a general hospital emergency department following trauma exposure underwent demographic, clinical, and neuroimaging assessments 1, 6, and 14 months after trauma. All analyses followed the pipeline outlined in the original study and were conducted in collaboration with its authors. RESULTS: Task-based functional MRI conducted 1 month posttrauma was used to identify four clusters of individuals based on profiles of neural activity reflecting threat and reward reactivity. These clusters were not identical to the previously identified brain-based biotypes and were not associated with prospective symptoms of posttraumatic psychopathology. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, these findings suggest that the original brain-based biotypes of trauma resilience and psychopathology may not generalize to other populations. Thus, caution is warranted when attempting to define subtypes of psychiatric vulnerability using neural indices before treatment implications can be fully realized. Additional replication studies are needed to identify more stable and generalizable neuroimaging-based biotypes of posttraumatic psychopathology.

Long term structural and functional neural changes following a single infusion of Ketamine in PTSD.

NMDA receptor antagonists have a vital role in extinction, learning, and reconsolidation processes. During the reconsolidation window, memories are activated into a labile state and can be reconsolidated in an altered form. This concept might have significant clinical implications in treating PTSD. In this pilot study we tested the potential of a single infusion of ketamine, followed by brief exposure therapy, to enhance post-retrieval extinction of PTSD trauma memories. 27 individuals diagnosed with PTSD were randomly assigned to receive either ketamine (0.5 mg/kg 40 min; N = 14) or midazolam (0.045 mg/kg; N = 13) after retrieval of the traumatic memory. 24 h following infusion, participants received a four-day trauma-focused psychotherapy. Symptoms and brain activity were assessed before treatment, at the end of treatment, and at 30-day follow-up. Amygdala activation to trauma scripts (a major biomarker of fear response) served as the main study outcome. Although PTSD symptoms improved equally in both groups, post-treatment, ketamine recipients showed a lower amygdala (-0.33, sd = 0.13, 95%HDI [-0.56,-0.04]) and hippocampus (-0.3 (sd = 0.19), 95%HDI [-0.65, 0.04]; marginal effect) reactivation to trauma memories, compared to midazolam recipients. Post-retrieval ketamine administration was also associated with decreased connectivity between the amygdala and hippocampus (-0.28, sd = 0.11, 95%HDI [-0.46, -0.11]), with no change in amygdala-vmPFC connectivity. Moreover, reduction in fractional anisotropy in bi-lateral uncinate fasciculus was seen in the Ketamine recipients compared with the midazolam recipients (right: post-treatment: -0.01108, 95% HDI [-0.0184,-0.003]; follow-up: -0.0183, 95% HDI [-0.02719,-0.0107]; left: post-treatment: -0.019, 95% HDI [-0.028,-0.011]; follow-up: -0.017, 95% HDI [-0.026,-0.007]). Taken together it is possible that ketamine may enhance post-retrieval extinction of the original trauma memories in humans. These preliminary findings show promising direction toward the capacity to rewrite human traumatic memories and modulate the fear response for at least 30 days post-extinction. When combined with psychotherapy for PTSD, further investigation of ketamine dose, timing of administration, and frequency of administration, is warranted.

Neural patterns differentiate traumatic from sad autobiographical memories in PTSD.

For people with post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), recall of traumatic memories often displays as intrusions that differ profoundly from processing of 'regular' negative memories. These mnemonic features fueled theories speculating a unique cognitive state linked with traumatic memories. Yet, to date, little empirical evidence supports this view. Here we examined neural activity of patients with PTSD who were listening to narratives depicting their own memories. An intersubject representational similarity analysis of cross-subject semantic content and neural patterns revealed a differentiation in hippocampal representation by narrative type: semantically similar, sad autobiographical memories elicited similar neural representations across participants. By contrast, within the same individuals, semantically similar trauma memories were not represented similarly. Furthermore, we were able to decode memory type from hippocampal multivoxel patterns. Finally, individual symptom severity modulated semantic representation of the traumatic narratives in the posterior cingulate cortex. Taken together, these findings suggest that traumatic memories are an alternative cognitive entity that deviates from memory per se.

Neural valuation of rewards and punishments in posttraumatic stress disorder: a computational approach.

Posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) is associated with changes in fear learning and decision-making, suggesting involvement of the brain's valuation system. Here we investigate the neural mechanisms of subjective valuation of rewards and punishments in combat veterans. In a functional MRI study, male combat veterans with a wide range of posttrauma symptoms (N = 48, Clinician Administered PTSD Scale, CAPS-IV) made a series of choices between sure and uncertain monetary gains and losses. Activity in the ventromedial prefrontal cortex (vmPFC) during valuation of uncertain options was associated with PTSD symptoms, an effect which was consistent for gains and losses, and specifically driven by numbing symptoms. In an exploratory analysis, computational modeling of choice behavior was used to estimate the subjective value of each option. The neural encoding of subjective value varied as a function of symptoms. Most notably, veterans with PTSD exhibited enhanced representations of the saliency of gains and losses in the neural valuation system, especially in ventral striatum. These results suggest a link between the valuation system and the development and maintenance of PTSD, and demonstrate the significance of studying reward and punishment processing within subject.

Choice from non-choice: predicting consumer preferences from blood oxygenation level-dependent signals obtained during passive viewing.

Decision-making is often viewed as a two-stage process, where subjective values are first assigned to each option and then the option of the highest value is selected. Converging evidence suggests that these subjective values are represented in the striatum and medial prefrontal cortex (MPFC). A separate line of evidence suggests that activation in the same areas represents the values of rewards even when choice is not required, as in classical conditioning tasks. However, it is unclear whether the same neural mechanism is engaged in both cases. To address this question we measured brain activation with functional magnetic resonance imaging while human subjects passively viewed individual consumer goods. We then sampled activation from predefined regions of interest and used it to predict subsequent choices between the same items made outside of the scanner. Our results show that activation in the striatum and MPFC in the absence of choice predicts subsequent choices, suggesting that these brain areas represent value in a similar manner whether or not choice is required.

A Neuroeconomics Approach to Obesity.

Obesity is a heterogeneous condition that is affected by physiological, behavioral, and environmental factors. Value-based decision making is a useful framework for integrating these factors at the individual level. The disciplines of behavioral economics and reinforcement learning provide tools for identifying specific cognitive and motivational processes that may contribute to the development and maintenance of obesity. Neuroeconomics complements these disciplines by studying the neural mechanisms underlying these processes. We surveyed recent literature on individual decision characteristics that are most frequently implicated in obesity: discounting the value of future outcomes, attitudes toward uncertainty, and learning from rewards and punishments. Our survey highlighted both consistent and inconsistent behavioral findings. These findings underscore the need to examine multiple processes within individuals to identify unique behavioral profiles associated with obesity. Such individual characterization will inform future studies on the neurobiology of obesity as well as the design of effective interventions that are individually tailored.