A Scoping Review and Taxonomy of Epidemiological-Macroeconomic Models of COVID-19.

OBJECTIVES: The COVID-19 pandemic placed significant strain on many health systems and economies. Mitigation policies decreased health impacts but had major macroeconomic impact. This article reviews models combining epidemiological and macroeconomic projections to enable policy makers to consider both macroeconomic and health objectives. METHODS: A scoping review of epidemiological-macroeconomic models of COVID-19 was conducted, covering preprints, working articles, and journal publications. We assessed model methodologies, scope, and application to empirical data. RESULTS: We found 80 articles modeling both the epidemiological and macroeconomic outcomes of COVID-19. Model scope is often limited to the impact of lockdown on health and total gross domestic product or aggregate consumption and to high-income countries. Just 14% of models assess disparities or poverty. Most models fall under 4 categories: compartmental-utility-maximization models, epidemiological models with stylized macroeconomic projections, epidemiological models linked to computable general equilibrium or input-output models, and epidemiological-economic agent-based models. We propose a taxonomy comparing these approaches to guide future model development. CONCLUSIONS: The epidemiological-macroeconomic models of COVID-19 identified have varying complexity and meet different modeling needs. Priorities for future modeling include increasing developing country applications, assessing disparities and poverty, and estimating of long-run impacts. This may require better integration between epidemiologists and economists.

Rice farmers' knowledge, attitudes and practices towards mosquitoes in irrigation schemes in Côte d'Ivoire: a qualitative study.

BACKGROUND: Irrigated rice cultivation in sub-Saharan Africa not only brings more malaria vectors to nearby communities, but also greater malaria risk. To aid the implementation of mosquito control in rice-growing communities, it is necessary to understand how farmers understand, view and manage their responsibility in mosquito generation and whether they are interested in coordinating to minimize it. METHODS: Qualitative methods (observation grids, semi-structured in-depth interviews and focus group discussions) were used to reveal the perceptions of mosquitoes and their control in two irrigated rice farming communities in central Côte d'Ivoire near the M'bé and Lokapli irrigation schemes. RESULTS: All rice farmers viewed mosquitoes as severe nuisances, and most acknowledged that they caused djèkouadjo (malaria) and were less numerous during harmattan (dry season). Many study participants believed that mosquitoes originated from grasses and stagnant water around villages. Only those living closer in proximity (~ 1 km) to the paddies believed that mosquitoes came from the bas-fonds (irrigated lowlands). However, they did not associate mosquito production with rice cultivation. Some farmers believed that there were more mosquitoes in recent years than historically because of the dam construction, but remarked on the importance of the dam (and bas-fonds) for their livelihood. Many farmers were not convinced that mosquito control could occur at farm-level. CONCLUSIONS: To enhance accountability amongst rice farmers, there is a need for greater awareness on the rice-mosquito link, and emphasis that the link does not imply a trade-off between food production and health. Training should not only be directed towards farming communities, but also agricultural and health extension workers. Future riceland mosquito control methods must focus on improving crop productivity and address collective action problems that may occur.

Impact of different mosquito collection methods on indicators of Anopheles malaria vectors in Uganda.

BACKGROUND: Methods used to sample mosquitoes are important to consider when estimating entomologic metrics. Human landing catches (HLCs) are considered the gold standard for collecting malaria vectors. However, HLCs are labour intensive, can expose collectors to transmission risk, and are difficult to implement at scale. This study compared alternative methods to HLCs for collecting Anopheles mosquitoes in eastern Uganda. METHODS: Between June and November 2021, mosquitoes were collected from randomly selected households in three parishes in Tororo and Busia districts. Mosquitoes were collected indoors and outdoors using HLCs in 16 households every 4 weeks. Additional collections were done indoors with prokopack aspirators, and outdoors with pit traps, in these 16 households every 2 weeks. CDC light trap collections were done indoors in 80 households every 4 weeks. Female Anopheles mosquitoes were identified morphologically and Anopheles gambiae sensu lato were speciated using PCR. Plasmodium falciparum sporozoite testing was done with ELISA. RESULTS: Overall, 4,891 female Anopheles were collected, including 3,318 indoors and 1,573 outdoors. Compared to indoor HLCs, vector density (mosquitoes per unit collection) was lower using CDC light traps (4.24 vs 2.96, density ratio [DR] 0.70, 95% CIs 0.63-0.77, p < 0.001) and prokopacks (4.24 vs 1.82, DR 0.43, 95% CIs 0.37-0.49, p < 0.001). Sporozoite rates were similar between indoor methods, although precision was limited. Compared to outdoor HLCs, vector density was higher using pit trap collections (3.53 vs 6.43, DR 1.82, 95% CIs 1.61-2.05, p < 0.001), while the sporozoite rate was lower (0.018 vs 0.004, rate ratio [RR] 0.23, 95% CIs 0.07-0.75, p = 0.008). Prokopacks collected a higher proportion of Anopheles funestus (75.0%) than indoor HLCs (25.8%), while pit traps collected a higher proportion of Anopheles arabiensis (84.3%) than outdoor HLCs (36.9%). CONCLUSION: In this setting, the density and species of mosquitoes collected with alternative methods varied, reflecting the feeding and resting characteristics of the common vectors and the different collection approaches. These differences could impact on the accuracy of entomological indicators and estimates of malaria transmission, when using the alternative methods for sampling mosquitos, as compared to HLCs.

Achieving global malaria eradication in changing landscapes.

Land use and land cover changes, such as deforestation, agricultural expansion and urbanization, are one of the largest anthropogenic environmental changes globally. Recent initiatives to evaluate the feasibility of malaria eradication have highlighted impacts of landscape changes on malaria transmission and the potential of these changes to undermine malaria control and elimination efforts. Multisectoral approaches are needed to detect and minimize negative impacts of land use and land cover changes on malaria transmission while supporting development aiding malaria control, elimination and ultimately eradication. Pathways through which land use and land cover changes disrupt social and ecological systems to increase or decrease malaria risks are outlined, identifying priorities and opportunities for a global malaria eradication campaign. The impacts of land use and land cover changes on malaria transmission are complex and highly context-specific, with effects changing over time and space. Landscape changes are only one element of a complex development process with wider economic and social dimensions affecting human health and wellbeing. While deforestation and other landscape changes threaten to undermine malaria control efforts and have driven the emergence of zoonotic malaria, most of the malaria elimination successes have been underpinned by agricultural development and land management. Malaria eradication is not feasible without addressing these changing risks while, conversely, consideration of malaria impacts in land management decisions has the potential to significantly accelerate progress towards eradication. Multisectoral cooperation and approaches to linking malaria control and environmental science, such as conducting locally relevant ecological monitoring, integrating landscape data into malaria surveillance systems and designing environmental management strategies to reduce malaria burdens, are essential to achieve malaria eradication.

The consequences of declining population access to insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) on net use patterns and physical degradation of nets after 22 months of ownership.

BACKGROUND: As insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) wear out and are disposed, some household members are prioritized to use remaining ITNs. This study assessed how nets are allocated within households to individuals of different age categories as ITNs are lost or damaged and as new ITNs are obtained. The study also explored how ITN allocation affects ITN durability. METHODS: A cross-sectional household survey and ITN durability study was conducted among 2,875 households across Tanzania to determine the proportion of nets that remain protective (serviceable) 22 months after net distribution aiming for universal coverage. Allocation of study nets within houses, and re-allocation of ITNs when new universal replacement campaign (URC) nets arrived in study households in Musoma District, was also assessed. RESULTS: Some 57.0% (95% CI 53.9-60.1%) of households had sufficient ITNs for every household member, while 84.4% (95% CI 82.4-86.4%) of the population had access to an ITN within their household (assuming 1 net covers every 2 members). In households with sufficient nets, 77.5% of members slept under ITNs. In households without sufficient nets, pregnant women (54.6%), children < 5 years (45.8%) and adults (42.1%) were prioritized, with fewer school-age children 5-14 years (35.9%), youths 15-24 years (28.1%) and seniors > 65 years (32.6%) sleeping under ITNs. Crowding ([Formula: see text] 3 people sleeping under nets) was twice as common among people residing in houses without sufficient nets for all age groups, apart from children < 5. Nets were less likely to be serviceable if: [Formula: see text] 3 people slept under them (OR 0.50 (95% CI 0.40-0.63)), or if nets were used by school-age children (OR 0.72 (95% CI 0.56-0.93)), or if the net product was Olyset®. One month after the URC, only 23.6% (95% CI 16.7-30.6%) of the population had access to a URC ITN in Musoma district. Householders in Musoma district continued the use of old ITNs even with the arrival of new URC nets. CONCLUSION: Users determined the useful life of ITNs and prioritized pregnant women and children < 5 to serviceable ITNs. When household net access declines, users adjust by crowding under remaining nets, which further reduces ITN lifespan. School-age children that commonly harbour gametocytes that mediate malaria transmission are compelled to sleep under unserviceable nets, crowd under nets or remain uncovered. However, they were accommodated by the arrival of new nets. More frequent ITN delivery through the school net programme in combination with mass distribution campaigns is essential to maximize ITN effectiveness.

Impact of seasonality and malaria control interventions on Anopheles density and species composition from three areas of Uganda with differing malaria endemicity.

BACKGROUND: Long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) and indoor residual spraying (IRS) are the malaria control interventions primarily responsible for reductions in transmission intensity across sub-Saharan Africa. These interventions, however, may have differential impact on Anopheles species composition and density. This study examined the changing pattern of Anopheles species in three areas of Uganda with markedly different transmission intensities and different levels of vector control. METHODS: From October 2011 to June 2016 mosquitoes were collected monthly using CDC light traps from 100 randomly selected households in three areas: Walukuba (low transmission), Kihihi (moderate transmission) and Nagongera (high transmission). LLINs were distributed in November 2013 in Walukuba and Nagongera and in June 2014 in Kihihi. IRS was implemented only in Nagongera, with three rounds of bendiocarb delivered between December 2014 and June 2015. Mosquito species were identified morphologically and by PCR (Polymerase Chain Reaction). RESULTS: In Walukuba, LLIN distribution was associated with a decline in Anopheles funestus vector density (0.07 vs 0.02 mosquitoes per house per night, density ratio [DR] 0.34, 95% CI: 0.18-0.65, p = 0.001), but not Anopheles gambiae sensu stricto (s.s.) nor Anopheles arabiensis. In Kihihi, over 98% of mosquitoes were An. gambiae s.s. and LLIN distribution was associated with a decline in An. gambiae s.s. vector density (4.00 vs 2.46, DR 0.68, 95% CI: 0.49-0.94, p = 0.02). In Nagongera, the combination of LLINs and multiple rounds of IRS was associated with almost complete elimination of An. gambiae s.s. (28.0 vs 0.17, DR 0.004, 95% CI: 0.002-0.009, p < 0.001), and An. funestus sensu lato (s.l.) (3.90 vs 0.006, DR 0.001, 95% CI: 0.0005-0.004, p < 0.001), with a less pronounced decline in An. arabiensis (9.18 vs 2.00, DR 0.15 95% CI: 0.07-0.33, p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: LLIN distribution was associated with reductions in An. funestus s.l. in the lowest transmission site and An. gambiae s.s. in the moderate transmission site. In the highest transmission site, a combination of LLINs and multiple rounds of IRS was associated with the near collapse of An. gambiae s.s. and An. funestus s.l. Following IRS, An. arabiensis, a behaviourally resilient vector, became the predominant species, which may have implications for malaria vector control activities. Development of interventions targeted at outdoor biting remains a priority.

Comparative functional survival and equivalent annual cost of 3 long-lasting insecticidal net (LLIN) products in Tanzania: A randomised trial with 3-year follow up.

BACKGROUND: Two billion long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) have been procured for malaria control. A functional LLIN is one that is present, is in good physical condition, and remains insecticidal, thereby providing protection against vector-borne diseases through preventing bites and killing disease vectors. The World Health Organization (WHO) prequalifies LLINs that remain adequately insecticidal 3 years after deployment. Therefore, institutional buyers often assume that prequalified LLINs are functionally identical with a 3-year lifespan. We measured the lifespans of 3 LLIN products, and calculated their cost per year of functional life, to demonstrate the economic and public health importance of procuring the most cost-effective LLIN product based on its lifespan. METHODS AND FINDINGS: A randomised double-blinded trial of 3 pyrethroid LLIN products (10,571 nets in total) was conducted at 3 follow-up points: 10 months (August-October 2014), 22 months (August-October 2015), and 36 months (October-December 2016) among 3,393 households in Tanzania using WHO-recommended methods. Primary outcome was LLIN functional survival (LLIN present and in serviceable condition). Secondary outcomes were (1) bioefficacy and chemical content (residual insecticidal activity) and (2) protective efficacy for volunteers sleeping under the LLINs (bite reduction and mosquitoes killed). Median LLIN functional survival was significantly different between the 3 net products (p = 0.001): 2.0 years (95% CI 1.7-2.3) for Olyset, 2.5 years (95% CI 2.2-2.8) for PermaNet 2.0 (hazard ratio [HR] 0.73 [95% CI 0.64-0.85], p = 0.001), and 2.6 years (95% CI 2.3-2.8) for NetProtect (HR = 0.70 [95% CI 0.62-0.77], p < 0.001). Functional survival was affected by accumulation of holes, leading to users discarding nets. Protective efficacy also significantly differed between products as they aged. Equivalent annual cost varied between US$1.2 (95% CI $1.1-$1.4) and US$1.5 (95% CI $1.3-$1.7), assuming that each net was priced identically at US$3. The 2 longer-lived nets (PermaNet and NetProtect) were 20% cheaper than the shorter-lived product (Olyset). The trial was limited to only the most widely sold LLINs in Tanzania. Functional survival varies by country, so the single country setting is a limitation. CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest that LLIN functional survival is less than 3 years and differs substantially between products, and these differences strongly influence LLIN value for money. LLIN tendering processes should consider local expectations of cost per year of functional life and not unit price. As new LLIN products come on the market, especially those with new insecticides, it will be imperative to monitor their comparative durability to ensure that the most cost-effective products are procured for malaria control.

Minimal tillage and intermittent flooding farming systems show a potential reduction in the proliferation of Anopheles mosquito larvae in a rice field in Malanville, Northern Benin.

BACKGROUND: Irrigation systems have been identified as one of the factors promoting malaria disease around agricultural farms in sub-Saharan Africa. However, if improved water management strategy is adopted during rice cultivation, it may help to reduce malaria cases among human population living around rice fields. This study aimed to assess the impact of the different irrigation practices on malaria transmission, as well as to evaluate the water management system that will best mitigate malaria transmission in Malanville, Benin. METHODS: Knowledge, Attitude and Practice (KAP) study was conducted on 104 households staying on and around the rice fields in Malanville. The study focused on the frequency of mosquito bites and preventive measures against malaria as well as soil preparation and rice planting methods. Mosquito larvae density was assessed in different water management system: continuous flooding (CF) or intermittent flooding (IF), deep tillage (DT) or minimal tillage (MT) and normal levelling (NL) or abnormal levelling (AL) in an experimental hut set-up. Larvae were collected using dipping methods and their density was determined. RESULTS: Three tillage systems, which include the use of tiller, plow and hoe, were identified on the rice field. Continuous flooding was the only irrigation system used by farmers. Retrospective data from Malanville Health Centre revealed higher malaria cases during rice production season, which was also confirmed by field participants. The density of Anopheles larvae was reduced by 80.8%, 30.8% and 40.7% (P = 0.000) during transplanting, tillering and maturation periods, respectively with intermittent flooding compared to continuous flooding. In addition, a clear reduction of larva density was observed with both intermittent flooding systems applied to minimal tillage (MT + IF + NL) and intermittent flooding applied to deep tillage (DT + IF + AL), showing that intermittent flooding could reduce the abundance of malaria vector in rice fields. CONCLUSION: Recommending intermittent flooding technology for rice cultivation may not only be useful for water management but could also be an intentional strategy to control mosquitoes vector-borne diseases around rice farms.

How useful are malaria risk maps at the country level? Perceptions of decision-makers in Kenya, Malawi and the Democratic Republic of Congo.

BACKGROUND: Declining malaria prevalence and pressure on external funding have increased the need for efficiency in malaria control in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Modelled Plasmodium falciparum parasite rate (PfPR) maps are increasingly becoming available and provide information on the epidemiological situation of countries. However, how these maps are understood or used for national malaria planning is rarely explored. In this study, the practices and perceptions of national decision-makers on the utility of malaria risk maps, showing prevalence of parasitaemia or incidence of illness, was investigated. METHODS: A document review of recent National Malaria Strategic Plans was combined with 64 in-depth interviews with stakeholders in Kenya, Malawi and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). The document review focused on the type of epidemiological maps included and their use in prioritising and targeting interventions. Interviews (14 Kenya, 17 Malawi, 27 DRC, 6 global level) explored drivers of stakeholder perceptions of the utility, value and limitations of malaria risk maps. RESULTS: Three different types of maps were used to show malaria epidemiological strata: malaria prevalence using a PfPR modelled map (Kenya); malaria incidence using routine health system data (Malawi); and malaria prevalence using data from the most recent Demographic and Health Survey (DRC). In Kenya the map was used to target preventative interventions, including long-lasting insecticide-treated nets (LLINs) and intermittent preventive treatment in pregnancy (IPTp), whilst in Malawi and DRC the maps were used to target in-door residual spraying (IRS) and LLINs distributions in schools. Maps were also used for operational planning, supply quantification, financial justification and advocacy. Findings from the interviews suggested that decision-makers lacked trust in the modelled PfPR maps when based on only a few empirical data points (Malawi and DRC). CONCLUSIONS: Maps were generally used to identify areas with high prevalence in order to implement specific interventions. Despite the availability of national level modelled PfPR maps in all three countries, they were only used in one country. Perceived utility of malaria risk maps was associated with the epidemiological structure of the country and use was driven by perceived need, understanding (quality and relevance), ownership and trust in the data used to develop the maps.

Can ITN distribution policies increase children's ITN use? A DHS analysis.

BACKGROUND: Insecticide-treated nets (ITN) have largely been distributed via mass distribution campaigns. Since 2011, however, the World Health Organization (WHO) has recommended additional ITN distribution via routine antenatal care (ANC) and expanded programme on immunization (EPI) services. Countries have begun to implement these routine facility-based distribution strategies, but inconsistently, and there is little research on outcomes of these new programmes. This paper investigates the impact of ITN distribution policies on children's net use, comparing countries with different policies in place. METHODS: Demographic Health Surveys from 25 countries in Africa were used to analyse household ITN ownership, and ITN use among children under 5 years of age. Countries were categorized in terms of the ITN facility-based distribution policies in place, based on nationally reported policies and distribution data provided to the WHO. The analysis was conducted for individual countries and then pooled with all countries in each category weighted equally to present the average country experience, by ITN distribution policy. RESULTS: Household ITN ownership, children's ITN use, and children's ITN use in households with at least one ITN increase with each additional routine facility-based distribution policy. An average of 54.0% of children slept under an ITN in countries with ITN distribution via ANC and EPI, compared to 34.3% and 24.7% in countries with ITN distribution via ANC only, or no facility-based distribution, respectively. Linear regression found a 13% increase in net use among children under 5, on average, with each additional ITN distribution policy. CONCLUSION: ITN distribution via ANC and EPI can not only assist countries in maintaining ITN ownership and use, but may be extremely effective at increasing ITN ownership and use. There is also an additional benefit associated with combined ANC and EPI-based ITN distribution, compared to ANC distribution alone.

Mosquito net coverage in years between mass distributions: a case study of Tanzania, 2013.

BACKGROUND: The Government of Tanzania is the main source of long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) for its population. Mosquito nets (treated and untreated) are also available in the commercial market. To sustain investments and health gains in the fight against malaria, it is important for the National Malaria Control Programme to monitor LLIN coverage especially in the years between mass distributions and to understand what households do if their free nets are deemed unusable. The aim of this paper was to assess standard LLIN indicators by wealth status in Tanzania in 2013, 2 years after the last mass campaign in 2011, and extend the analysis to untreated nets (UTNs) to investigate how households adapt when nets are not continuously distributed. METHODS: Between October-December 2013, a household survey was conducted in 3398 households in eight districts in Tanzania. Using the Roll Back Malaria indicators, the study analysed: (1) household net ownership; (2) access to nets; (3) population net use and (4) net use:access ratio. Outcomes were calculated for LLINs and UTNs. Results were analysed by socio-economic quintiles and by district. RESULTS: Only three of the eight districts had household LLIN ownership of more than 80%. In 2013, less than a quarter of the households had one LLIN for every two people and only half of the population had access to an LLIN. Only the wealthier quintiles increased their net ownership and access to levels above 80% through the addition of UTNs. Overall net use of the population was low (LLINs: 32.8%; UTNs: 9.5%) and net use:access ratio was below target level (LLINs: 0.66; UTN: 0.50). Both measures varied significantly by district. CONCLUSIONS: Two years after the last mass campaign, the percentage of households or population with access to LLINs was low. These findings indicate the average rate at which households in Tanzania lose their nets is higher than the rate at which they acquire new nets. The wealthiest households topped up their household net ownership with UTNs. Efforts to make LLINs available through commercial markets should be promoted, so those who can afford to buy nets purchase LLINs rather than UTNs. Net use was low around 40% and mostly explained by lack of access to nets. However, the use:access ratio was poor in Mbozi and Kahama districts warranting further investigations to understand other barriers to net use.

Combining indoor and outdoor methods for controlling malaria vectors: an ecological model of endectocide-treated livestock and insecticidal bed nets.

BACKGROUND: Malaria is spread by mosquitoes that are increasingly recognised to have diverse biting behaviours. How a mosquito in a specific environment responds to differing availability of blood-host species is largely unknown and yet critical to vector control efficacy. A parsimonious mathematical model is proposed that accounts for a diverse range of host-biting behaviours and assesses their impact on combining long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) with a novel approach to malaria control: livestock treated with insecticidal compounds ('endectocides') that kill biting mosquitoes. RESULTS: Simulations of a malaria control programme showed marked differences across biting ecologies in the efficacy of both LLINs as a stand-alone tool and the combination of LLINs with endectocide-treated cattle. During the intervals between LLIN mass campaigns, concordant use of endectocides is projected to reduce the bounce-back in malaria prevalence that can occur as LLIN efficacy decays over time, especially if replacement campaigns are delayed. Integrating these approaches can also dramatically improve the attainability of local elimination; endectocidal treatment schedules required to achieve this aim are provided for malaria vectors with different biting ecologies. CONCLUSIONS: Targeting blood-feeding mosquitoes by treating livestock with endectocides offers a potentially useful complement to existing malaria control programmes centred on LLIN distribution. This approach is likely to be effective against vectors with a wide range of host-preferences and biting behaviours, with the exception of species that are so strictly anthropophilic that most blood meals are taken on humans even when humans are much less available than non-human hosts. Identifying this functional relationship in wild mosquito populations and ascertaining the extent to which it differs, within as well as between species, is a critical next step before targets can be set for employing this novel approach and combination.

Building malaria out: improving health in the home.

Malaria prevalence has halved in endemic Africa since 2000, largely driven by the concerted international control effort. To achieve the new global targets for malaria control and elimination by 2030, and to sustain elimination once achieved, additional vector control interventions are urgently needed to supplement long-lasting insecticide-treated nets and indoor residual spraying, which both rely on effective insecticides for optimal protection. Improving housing and the built environment is a promising strategy to address this need, with an expanding body of evidence that simple modifications to reduce house entry by malaria vectors, such as closing eaves and screening doors and windows, can help protect residents from malaria. However, numerous questions remain unanswered, from basic science relating to the optimal design of house improvements through to their translation into operational use. The Malaria Journal thematic series on 'housing and malaria' collates articles that contribute to the evidence base on approaches for improving housing to reduce domestic malaria transmission.

Assessing the availability of LLINs for continuous distribution through routine antenatal care and the Expanded Programme on Immunizations in sub-Saharan Africa.

BACKGROUND: In addition to mass distribution campaigns, the World Health Organization (WHO) recommends the continuous distribution of long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) to all pregnant women attending antenatal care (ANC) and all infants attending the Expanded Programme on Immunization (EPI) services in countries implementing mosquito nets for malaria control. Countries report LLIN distribution data to the WHO annually. For this analysis, these data were used to assess policy and practice in implementing these recommendations and to compare the numbers of LLINs available through ANC and EPI services with the numbers of women and children attending these services. METHODS: For each reporting country in sub-Saharan Africa, the presence of a reported policy for LLIN distribution through ANC and EPI was reviewed. Prior to inclusion in the analysis the completeness of data was assessed in terms of the numbers of LLINs distributed through all channels (campaigns, EPI, ANC, other). For each country with adequate data, the numbers of LLINs reportedly distributed by national programmes to ANC was compared to the number of women reportedly attending ANC at least once; the ratio between these two numbers was used as an indicator of LLIN availability at ANC services. The same calculations were repeated for LLINs distributed through EPI to produce the corresponding LLIN availability through this distribution channel. RESULTS: Among 48 malaria-endemic countries in Africa, 33 malaria programmes reported adopting policies of ANC-based continuous distribution of LLINs, and 25 reported adopting policies of EPI-based distribution. Over a 3-year period through 2012, distribution through ANC accounted for 9 % of LLINs distributed, and LLINs distributed through EPI accounted for 4 %. The LLIN availability ratios achieved were 55 % through ANC and 34 % through EPI. For 38 country programmes reporting on LLIN distribution, data to calculate LLIN availability through ANC and EPI was available for 17 and 16, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: These continuous LLIN distribution channels appear to be under-utilized, especially EPI-based distribution. However, quality data from more countries are needed for consistent and reliable programme performance monitoring. A greater focus on routine data collection, monitoring and reporting on LLINs distributed through both ANC and EPI can provide insight into both strengths and weaknesses of continuous distribution, and improve the effectiveness of these delivery channels.

Operational challenges to continuous LLIN distribution: a qualitative rapid assessment in four countries.

BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization recommends that long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) for malaria prevention should be distributed continuously through antenatal care (ANC) and the expanded programme on immunization (EPI) in addition to mass campaigns. Despite these recommendations, the continuous distribution (CD) of LLIN distribution through ANC and EPI is not policy in many countries, and where there is a policy, implementation is incomplete. This study aims to identify the operational strengths and weaknesses of LLINs CD in four country programmes in sub-Saharan Africa. METHODS: A qualitative rapid assessment process was conducted using semi-structured individual and group interviews at the national, sub-national, and facility level in four countries. Seventy participants were included (23 in Kenya, 13 in Malawi, 18 in Mali and 16 in Rwanda), drawn from malaria programmes, ANC and EPI programmes, government logistics units, and partner organizations. Interviews were structured to identify themes within a health systems approach. Policy and guideline documents and data collection tools were reviewed as a means of triangulation. Data analysis focused on pre-determined and emergent themes. RESULTS: The four countries used a wide variety of management systems for the supply of LLINs to routine services. Issues related to quantification, supply logistics and data collection all contributed to stock-outs at facility level. None of the four countries had guidelines for responding to stock-outs or system enabling local staff to request additional supplies of LLINs. In all four countries, data collection of LLIN distribution was incomplete or absent at facility level, and such data were not used for planning. Training of staff at the facility level was implemented less frequently than national and sub-national staff would have preferred. Logistics systems, independent of other commodities, and in-country partner support strengthened the continuous distribution of LLINs. CONCLUSIONS: In these countries, stock-outs were the most important single obstacle to the smooth operations of continuous LLIN distribution. Stock-outs can be avoided if facilities have the capacity to place orders for LLIN resupply as needed. Revised data collection and management systems for LLIN distribution have the potential to increase coverage of the target populations by improving LLIN stock-out response, and strengthening monitoring and evaluation of distribution.

A cluster randomized trial comparing deltamethrin and bendiocarb as insecticides for indoor residual spraying to control malaria on Bioko Island, Equatorial Guinea.

BACKGROUND: Indoor residual spraying (IRS) has been used on Bioko for malaria control since 2004. In 2013 the insecticide was changed from bendiocarb to deltamethrin. Shortly after this change, there was a marked increase in malaria prevalence on the island. This trial was carried out to compare the effectiveness of bendiocarb and deltamethrin for use in IRS on Bioko. METHODS: Twenty-four clusters of houses were randomized to receive IRS with either bendiocarb or deltamethrin. Approximately 3 months after the intervention, the prevalence of malaria and levels of haemoglobin were measured in children aged 2-14 years in each cluster. RESULTS: Prevalence of malaria in 2-14 year olds was lower in the bendiocarb arm (16.8, 95 % CI 11.1-24.7, N = 1374) than in the deltamethrin arm (23.2, 95 % CI 16.0-32.3, N = 1330) but this difference was not significant (p = 0.390), even after adjusting for covariates (p = 0.119). Mean haemoglobin in children was marginally higher in the bendiocarb clusters (11.6 g/dl, 95 % CI 11.5-11.8, N = 1326) than in the deltamethrin clusters (11.5 g/dl, 95 % CI 11.3-11.7, N = 1329). This difference was borderline significant after adjusting for covariates (p = 0.049). CONCLUSIONS: The results are suggestive of bendiocarb being more effective at preventing malaria on Bioko although evidence for this was weak. The results are likely due to the fact that local vectors remain fully susceptible to bendiocarb whereas subsequent tests have shown resistance to deltamethrin.

Increasing outdoor host-seeking in Anopheles gambiae over 6 years of vector control on Bioko Island.

BACKGROUND: Vector control through indoor residual spraying (IRS) has been employed on Bioko Island, Equatorial Guinea, under the Bioko Island Malaria Control Project (BIMCP) since 2004. This study analyses the change in mosquito abundance, species composition and outdoor host-seeking proportions from 2009 to 2014, after 11 years of vector control on Bioko Island. METHODS: All-night indoor and outdoor human landing catches were performed monthly in the Bioko Island villages of Mongola, Arena Blanca, Biabia and Balboa from 2009 to 2014. Collected mosquitoes were morphologically identified and a subset of Anopheles gambiae sensu lato (s.l.) were later identified molecularly to their sibling species. Mosquito collection rates, species composition and indoor/outdoor host-seeking sites were analysed using generalized linear mixed models to assess changes in mosquito abundance and behaviour. RESULTS: The overall mosquito collection rate declined in each of the four Bioko Island villages. Anopheles coluzzii and Anopheles melas comprised the An. gambiae s.l. mosquito vector population, with a range of species proportions across the four villages. The proportion of outdoor host-seeking An. gambiae s.l. mosquitoes increased significantly in all four villages with an average increase of 58.8 % [57.9, 59.64 %] in 2009 to 70.0 % [67.8, 72.0 %] in 2014. Outdoor host-seeking rates did not increase in the month after an IRS spray round compared to the month before, suggesting that insecticide repellency has little impact on host-seeking behaviour. CONCLUSION: While vector control on Bioko Island has succeeded in substantial reduction in overall vector biting rates, populations of An. coluzzii and An. melas persist. Host-seeking behaviour has changed in these An. gambiae s.l. populations, with a shift towards outdoor host-seeking. During this study period, the proportion of host-seeking An. gambiae s.l. caught outdoors observed on Bioko Island increased to high levels, exceeding 80 % in some locations. It is possible that there may be a genetic basis underlying this large shift in host-seeking behaviour, in which case outdoor feeding could pose a serious threat to current vector control programmes. Currently, the BIMCP is preparing for this potential challenge by testing source reduction as a complementary control effort that also targets outdoor transmission.

Country-level operational implementation of the Global Plan for Insecticide Resistance Management.

Malaria control is reliant on the use of long-lasting pyrethroid-impregnated nets and/or indoor residual spraying (IRS) of insecticide. The rapid selection and spread of operationally significant pyrethroid resistance in African malaria vectors threatens our ability to sustain malaria control. Establishing whether resistance is operationally significant is technically challenging. Routine monitoring by bioassay is inadequate, and there are limited data linking resistance selection with changes in disease transmission. The default is to switch insecticides when resistance is detected, but limited insecticide options and resistance to multiple insecticides in numerous locations make this approach unsustainable. Detailed analysis of the resistance situation in Anopheles gambiae on Bioko Island after pyrethroid resistance was detected in this species in 2004, and the IRS program switched to carbamate bendiocarb, has now been undertaken. The pyrethroid resistance selected is a target-site knock-down resistance kdr-form, on a background of generally elevated metabolic activity, compared with insecticide-susceptible A. gambiae, but the major cytochrome P450-based metabolic pyrethroid resistance mechanisms are not present. The available evidence from bioassays and infection data suggests that the pyrethroid resistance mechanisms in Bioko malaria vectors are not operationally significant, and on this basis, a different, long-lasting pyrethroid formulation is now being reintroduced for IRS in a rotational insecticide resistance management program. This will allow control efforts to be sustained in a cost-effective manner while reducing the selection pressure for resistance to nonpyrethroid insecticides. The methods used provide a template for evidence-based insecticide resistance management by malaria control programs.

Outdoor biting by Anopheles mosquitoes on Bioko Island does not currently impact on malaria control.

BACKGROUND: There have been many recent reports that the rate of outdoor biting by malaria vectors has increased. This study examined the impact this might have on malaria transmission by assessing the association between exposure to outdoor bites and malaria infection on Bioko Island, Equatorial Guinea. METHODS: Responses to questions about time spent outside the previous night from a malaria indicator survey were combined with human landing catch measurements of hourly rates of outdoor and indoor biting for the whole island to estimate the number of outdoor and indoor bites received by each survey respondent. The association between RDT measured malaria infection status of individuals and outdoor bites received was investigated. RESULTS: The average number of bites received per person per night was estimated as 3.51 in total, of which 0.69 (19.7%) would occur outdoors. Malaria infection was not significantly higher in individuals who reported spending time outside between 7 pm and 6 am the previous night compared to those not spending time outside in both adults (18.9% vs 17.4%, p = 0.20) and children (29.2% vs 27.1%, p = 0.20). Malaria infection in neither adults (p = 0.56) nor in children (p = 0.12) was associated with exposure to outdoor bites, even after adjusting for confounders. CONCLUSIONS: Malaria vector mosquitoes in Bioko do bite humans outdoors, and this has the potential to reduce the effectiveness of vector control. However, outdoor biting is currently not a major factor influencing the malaria burden, mainly because more than 95% of the population are indoors during the middle of the night, which is the peak biting period for malaria vector mosquitoes. The majority of resources should remain with control measures that target indoor biting and resting such as LLINs and IRS.

Towards environmental detection, quantification, and molecular characterization of Anopheles stephensi and Aedes aegypti from experimental larval breeding sites.

The invasion and establishment of An. stephensi mosquitoes in the Horn of Africa represents a significant regional threat, which may jeopardise malaria control, particularly in urban areas which were formally free from disease transmission. Novel vector surveillance methods are urgently needed, both agnostic to mosquito larval morphology, and simple to implement at the sampling stage. Using new multiplex TaqMan assays, specifically targeting An. stephensi and Ae. aegypti, we validated the use of environmental DNA (eDNA) for simultaneous vector detection in shared artificial breeding sites. Study findings demonstrated that An. stephensi and Ae. aegypti eDNA deposited by as few as one second instar larva in 1L of water was detectable. Characterization of molecular insecticide resistance mechanisms, using novel amplicon-sequencing panels for both vector species, was possible from eDNA shed by as few as 16-32 s instar larvae in 50 ml of water. An. stephensi eDNA, derived from emergent pupae for 24 h, was remarkably stable, and still detectable ~ 2 weeks later. eDNA surveillance has the potential to be implemented in local endemic communities and at points of country entry, to monitor the spread of invasive vector species. Further studies are required to validate the feasibility of this technique under field conditions.