Widespread Exposure to Mosquitoborne California Serogroup Viruses in Caribou, Arctic Fox, Red Fox, and Polar Bears, Canada.

Northern Canada is warming at 3 times the global rate. Thus, changing diversity and distribution of vectors and pathogens is an increasing health concern. California serogroup (CSG) viruses are mosquitoborne arboviruses; wildlife reservoirs in northern ecosystems have not been identified. We detected CSG virus antibodies in 63% (95% CI 58%-67%) of caribou (n = 517), 4% (95% CI 2%-7%) of Arctic foxes (n = 297), 12% (95% CI 6%-21%) of red foxes (n = 77), and 28% (95% CI 24%-33%) of polar bears (n = 377). Sex, age, and summer temperatures were positively associated with polar bear exposure; location, year, and ecotype were associated with caribou exposure. Exposure was highest in boreal caribou and increased from baseline in polar bears after warmer summers. CSG virus exposure of wildlife is linked to climate change in northern Canada and sustained surveillance could be used to measure human health risks.

Long-term increases in pathogen seroprevalence in polar bears (Ursus maritimus) influenced by climate change.

The influence of climate change on wildlife disease dynamics is a burgeoning conservation and human health issue, but few long-term studies empirically link climate to pathogen prevalence. Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) are vulnerable to the negative impacts of sea ice loss as a result of accelerated Arctic warming. While studies have associated changes in polar bear body condition, reproductive output, survival, and abundance to reductions in sea ice, no long-term studies have documented the impact of climate change on pathogen exposure. We examined 425 serum samples from 381 adult polar bears, collected in western Hudson Bay (WH), Canada, for antibodies to selected pathogens across three time periods: 1986-1989 (n = 157), 1995-1998 (n = 159) and 2015-2017 (n = 109). We ran serological assays for antibodies to seven pathogens: Toxoplasma gondii, Neospora caninum, Trichinella spp., Francisella tularensis, Bordetella bronchiseptica, canine morbillivirus (CDV) and canine parvovirus (CPV). Seroprevalence of zoonotic parasites (T. gondii, Trichinella spp.) and bacterial pathogens (F. tularensis, B. bronchiseptica) increased significantly between 1986-1989 and 1995-1998, ranging from +6.2% to +20.8%, with T. gondii continuing to increase into 2015-2017 (+25.8% overall). Seroprevalence of viral pathogens (CDV, CPV) and N. caninum did not change with time. Toxoplasma gondii seroprevalence was higher following wetter summers, while seroprevalences of Trichinella spp. and B. bronchiseptica were positively correlated with hotter summers. Seroprevalence of antibodies to F. tularensis increased following years polar bears spent more days on land, and polar bears previously captured in human settlements were more likely to be seropositive for Trichinella spp. As the Arctic has warmed due to climate change, zoonotic pathogen exposure in WH polar bears has increased, driven by numerous altered ecosystem pathways.

Bordetella bronchiseptica-reactive antibodies in Canadian polar bears.

Bordetella bronchiseptica is a promiscuous bacterium that infects a variety of species but has not been reported in free-ranging polar bears (Ursus maritimus). Sera from 385 polar bears from the western Hudson Bay region, 1986 to 2017, were tested for reactivity to B. bronchiseptica with enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays using anti-canine IgG and Streptococcus protein G as secondary reagents. Sera from bears had variable reactivity to B. bronchiseptica antigens, and there was no difference among bears that had a history of coming near the town of Churchill, Manitoba, and bears that did not. Although the sources of exposure were not determined, equivalent results in both groups suggest that potential exposure to humans (aside from handling during sampling) and their animals (dogs) was not an important co-factor in sero-positivity to B. bronchiseptica.

Anticorps réactifs à Bordetella bronchiseptica chez les ours polaires du Canada. Bordetella bronchiseptica est une bactérie qui infecte une variété d'espèces mais qui n'a pas été signalée chez les ours polaires en liberté (Ursus maritimus). Les sérums de 385 ours polaires de la région ouest de la baie d'Hudson, de 1986 à 2017, ont été testés pour leur réactivité à B. bronchiseptica par une épreuve ELISA utilisant des anticorps anti-IgG canines et de la protéine G de Streptococcus comme réactifs secondaires. Les sérums d'ours avaient une réactivité variable aux antigènes de B. bronchiseptica, et il n'y avait aucune différence entre les ours qui avaient l'habitude de s'approcher de la ville de Churhill, au Manitoba, et les ours qui n'en avaient pas. Bien que les sources d'exposition n'aient pas été déterminées, des résultats équivalents dans les deux groupes suggèrent que l'exposition potentielle des humains (en dehors de la manipulation pendant l'échantillonnage) et de leurs animaux (chiens) n'était pas un cofacteur important de la séropositivité à B. bronchiseptica.(Traduit par Dr Serge Messier).

The stress of Arctic warming on polar bears.

Arctic ecosystems are changing rapidly in response to climate warming. While Arctic mammals are highly evolved to these extreme environments, particularly with respect to their stress axis, some species may have limited capacity to adapt to this change. We examined changes in key components of the stress axis (cortisol and its carrier protein-corticosteroid binding globulin [CBG]) in polar bears (Ursus maritimus) from western Hudson Bay (N = 300) over a 33 year period (1983-2015) during which time the ice-free period was increasing. Changing sea ice phenology limits spring hunting opportunities and extends the period of onshore fasting. We assessed the response of polar bears to a standardized stressor (helicopter pursuit, darting, and immobilization) during their onshore fasting period (late summer-autumn) and quantified the serum levels of the maximum corticosteroid binding capacity (MCBC) of CBG, the serum protein that binds cortisol strongly, and free cortisol (FC). We quantified bear condition (age, sex, female with cubs or not, fat condition), sea ice (breakup in spring-summer, 1 year lagged freeze-up in autumn), and duration of fasting until sample collection as well as cumulative impacts of the latter environmental traits from the previous year. Data were separated into "good" years (1983-1990) when conditions were thought to be optimal and "poor" years (1991-2015) when sea ice conditions deteriorated and fasting on land was extended. MCBC explained 39.4% of the variation in the good years, but only 28.1% in the poor ones, using both biological and environmental variables. MCBC levels decreased with age. Changes in FC were complex, but more poorly explained. Counterintuitively, MCBC levels increased with increased time onshore, 1 year lag effects, and in poor ice years. We conclude that MCBC is a biomarker of stress in polar bears and that the changes we document are a consequence of climate warming.

Transient benefits of climate change for a high-Arctic polar bear (Ursus maritimus) subpopulation.

Kane Basin (KB) is one of the world's most northerly polar bear (Ursus maritimus) subpopulations, where bears have historically inhabited a mix of thick multiyear and annual sea ice year-round. Currently, KB is transitioning to a seasonally ice-free region because of climate change. This ecological shift has been hypothesized to benefit polar bears in the near-term due to thinner ice with increased biological production, although this has not been demonstrated empirically. We assess sea-ice changes in KB together with changes in polar bear movements, seasonal ranges, body condition, and reproductive metrics obtained from capture-recapture (physical and genetic) and satellite telemetry studies during two study periods (1993-1997 and 2012-2016). The annual cycle of sea-ice habitat in KB shifted from a year-round ice platform (~50% coverage in summer) in the 1990s to nearly complete melt-out in summer (<5% coverage) in the 2010s. The mean duration between sea-ice retreat and advance increased from 109 to 160 days (p = .004). Between the 1990s and 2010s, adult female (AF) seasonal ranges more than doubled in spring and summer and were significantly larger in all months. Body condition scores improved for all ages and both sexes. Mean litter sizes of cubs-of-the-year (C0s) and yearlings (C1s), and the number of C1s per AF, did not change between decades. The date of spring sea-ice retreat in the previous year was positively correlated with C1 litter size, suggesting smaller litters following years with earlier sea-ice breakup. Our study provides evidence for range expansion, improved body condition, and stable reproductive performance in the KB polar bear subpopulation. These changes, together with a likely increasing subpopulation abundance, may reflect the shift from thick, multiyear ice to thinner, seasonal ice with higher biological productivity. The duration of these benefits is unknown because, under unmitigated climate change, continued sea-ice loss is expected to eventually have negative demographic and ecological effects on all polar bears.

Interrelated ecological impacts of climate change on an apex predator.

Climate change has broad ecological implications for species that rely on sensitive habitats. For some top predators, loss of habitat is expected to lead to cascading behavioral, nutritional, and reproductive changes that ultimately accelerate population declines. In the case of the polar bear (Ursus maritimus), declining Arctic sea ice reduces access to prey and lengthens seasonal fasting periods. We used a novel combination of physical capture, biopsy darting, and visual aerial observation data to project reproductive performance for polar bears by linking sea ice loss to changes in habitat use, body condition (i.e., fatness), and cub production. Satellite telemetry data from 43 (1991-1997) and 38 (2009-2015) adult female polar bears in the Baffin Bay subpopulation showed that bears now spend an additional 30 d on land (90 d in total) in the 2000s compared to the 1990s, a change closely correlated with changes in spring sea ice breakup and fall sea ice formation. Body condition declined for all sex, age, and reproductive classes and was positively correlated with sea ice availability in the current and previous year. Furthermore, cub litter size was positively correlated with maternal condition and spring breakup date (i.e., later breakup leading to larger litters), and negatively correlated with the duration of the ice-free period (i.e., longer ice-free periods leading to smaller litters). Based on these relationships, we projected reproductive performance three polar bear generations into the future (approximately 35 yr). Results indicate that two-cub litters, previously the norm, could largely disappear from Baffin Bay as sea ice loss continues. Our findings demonstrate how concurrent analysis of multiple data types collected over long periods from polar bears can provide a mechanistic understanding of the ecological implications of climate change. This information is needed for long-term conservation planning, which includes quantitative harvest risk assessments that incorporate estimated or assumed trends in future environmental carrying capacity.

Contrasting Temporal Patterns of Mercury, Niche Dynamics, and Body Fat Indices of Polar Bears and Ringed Seals in a Melting Icescape.

Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) and ringed seals (Pusa hispida) have a strong predator-prey relationship and are facing climate-associated Arctic habitat loss and harmful dietary exposure to total mercury (THg) and other pollutants. However, little is known about whether both species inhabiting the same area exhibit similar temporal patterns in Hg concentration, niche dynamics, and body fat indices. We used THg, δ13C, and δ15N values of western Hudson Bay polar bear hair (2004-2016) and ringed seal muscle samples (2003-2015) to investigate temporal trends of these variables and multidimensional niche metrics, as well as body fat indices for both species. We found a decline in THg concentration (by 3.8% per year) and δ13C (by 1.5‰) in ringed seals suggesting a change in feeding habits and carbon source use over time, whereas no significant changes occurred in polar bears. In contrast, the polar bear 3-dimensional niche size decreased by nearly half with no change in ringed seal niche size. The δ13C spacing between both species increased by approximately 1.5× suggesting different responses to annual changes in sympagic-pelagic carbon source production. Ringed seal body fat index was higher in years of earlier sea ice breakup with no change occurring in polar bears. These findings indicate that both species are responding differently to a changing environment suggesting a possible weakening of their predator-prey relationship in western Hudson Bay.

Hundreds of Unrecognized Halogenated Contaminants Discovered in Polar Bear Serum.

Exposure of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) to persistent organic pollutants was discovered in the 1970s, but recent evidence suggests the presence of unknown toxic chemicals in their blood. Protein and phospholipid depleted serum was stirred with polyethersulfone capillaries to extract a broad range of analytes, and nontarget mass spectrometry with "fragmentation flagging" was used for detection. Hundreds of analytes were discovered belonging to 13 classes, including novel polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) metabolites and many fluorinated or chlorinated substances not previously detected. All analytes were detected in the oldest (mid-1980s) archived polar bear serum from Hudson Bay and Beaufort Sea, and all fluorinated classes showed increasing trends. A mouse experiment confirmed the novel PCB metabolites, suggesting that these could be widespread in mammals. Historical exposure and toxic risk has been underestimated, and these halogenated contaminants pose uncertain risks to this threatened species.

Demography of an apex predator at the edge of its range: impacts of changing sea ice on polar bears in Hudson Bay.

Changes in the abundance and distribution of wildlife populations are common consequences of historic and contemporary climate change. Some Arctic marine mammals, such as the polar bear (Ursus maritimus), may be particularly vulnerable to such changes due to the loss of Arctic sea ice. We evaluated the impacts of environmental variation on demographic rates for the Western Hudson Bay (WH), polar bear subpopulation from 1984 to 2011 using live-recapture and dead-recovery data in a Bayesian implementation of multistate capture-recapture models. We found that survival of female polar bears was related to the annual timing of sea ice break-up and formation. Using estimated vital rates (e.g., survival and reproduction) in matrix projection models, we calculated the growth rate of the WH subpopulation and projected population responses under different environmental scenarios while accounting for parametric uncertainty, temporal variation, and demographic stochasticity. Our analysis suggested a long-term decline in the number of bears from 1185 (95% Bayesian credible interval [BCI] = 993-1411) in 1987 to 806 (95% BCI = 653-984) in 2011. In the last 10 yr of the study, the number of bears appeared stable due to temporary stability in sea ice conditions (mean population growth rate for the period 2001-2010 = 1.02, 95% BCI = 0.98-1.06). Looking forward, we estimated long-term growth rates for the WH subpopulation of ~1.02 (95% BCI = 1.00-1.05) and 0.97 (95% BCI = 0.92-1.01) under hypothetical high and low sea ice conditions, respectively. Our findings support previous evidence for a demographic linkage between sea ice conditions and polar bear population dynamics. Furthermore, we present a robust framework for sensitivity analysis with respect to continued climate change (e.g., to inform scenario planning) and for evaluating the combined effects of climate change and management actions on the status of wildlife populations.

Conservation status of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in relation to projected sea-ice declines.

Loss of Arctic sea ice owing to climate change is the primary threat to polar bears throughout their range. We evaluated the potential response of polar bears to sea-ice declines by (i) calculating generation length (GL) for the species, which determines the timeframe for conservation assessments; (ii) developing a standardized sea-ice metric representing important habitat; and (iii) using statistical models and computer simulation to project changes in the global population under three approaches relating polar bear abundance to sea ice. Mean GL was 11.5 years. Ice-covered days declined in all subpopulation areas during 1979-2014 (median -1.26 days year-1). The estimated probabilities that reductions in the mean global population size of polar bears will be greater than 30%, 50% and 80% over three generations (35-41 years) were 0.71 (range 0.20-0.95), 0.07 (range 0-0.35) and less than 0.01 (range 0-0.02), respectively. According to IUCN Red List reduction thresholds, which provide a common measure of extinction risk across taxa, these results are consistent with listing the species as vulnerable. Our findings support the potential for large declines in polar bear numbers owing to sea-ice loss, and highlight near-term uncertainty in statistical projections as well as the sensitivity of projections to different plausible assumptions.

Hair Mercury Concentrations in Western Hudson Bay Polar Bear Family Groups.

Methylmercury is one of the more toxic forms of mercury (Hg), the biomagnification of which is prevalent in the Arctic where apex predators such as polar bears (Ursus maritimus) can carry high loads. The maternal transfer of contaminants to offspring is a concern, as offspring may be particularly sensitive to the effects of environmental pollutants during early development. However, few studies of polar bears report on Hg in dependent young. We examined hair total Hg (THg) concentrations in 24 polar bear family groups in western Hudson Bay: mother, cub-of-the-year (COY), yearling, and 2 year old. THg concentrations increased with bear age, with COYs having lower concentrations than other offspring groups (p ≤ 0.008). Using AICc-based regression models, we found maternal THg to be positively related to body condition and litter size, while overall offspring THg was positively related to maternal body condition in addition to being dependent on the sex and age of the offspring. COY THg concentrations were positively related to maternal THg while also depending on the sex of the offspring. Considering our results, future studies in polar bear ecotoxicology are encouraged to include offspring of different ages and sexes.

Polar bear energetic and behavioral strategies on land with implications for surviving the ice-free period.

Declining Arctic sea ice is increasing polar bear land use. Polar bears on land are thought to minimize activity to conserve energy. Here, we measure the daily energy expenditure (DEE), diet, behavior, movement, and body composition changes of 20 different polar bears on land over 19-23 days from August to September (2019-2022) in Manitoba, Canada. Polar bears on land exhibited a 5.2-fold range in DEE and 19-fold range in activity, from hibernation-like DEEs to levels approaching active bears on the sea ice, including three individuals that made energetically demanding swims totaling 54-175 km. Bears consumed berries, vegetation, birds, bones, antlers, seal, and beluga. Beyond compensating for elevated DEE, there was little benefit from terrestrial foraging toward prolonging the predicted time to starvation, as 19 of 20 bears lost mass (0.4-1.7 kg•day-1). Although polar bears on land exhibit remarkable behavioral plasticity, our findings reinforce the risk of starvation, particularly in subadults, with forecasted increases in the onshore period.

Migration phenology and seasonal fidelity of an Arctic marine predator in relation to sea ice dynamics.

Understanding how seasonal environmental conditions affect the timing and distribution of synchronized animal movement patterns is a central issue in animal ecology. Migration, a behavioural adaptation to seasonal environmental fluctuations, is a fundamental part of the life history of numerous species. However, global climate change can alter the spatiotemporal distribution of resources and thus affect the seasonal movement patterns of migratory animals. We examined sea ice dynamics relative to migration patterns and seasonal geographical fidelity of an Arctic marine predator, the polar bear (Ursus maritimus). Polar bear movement patterns were quantified using satellite-linked telemetry data collected from collars deployed between 1991-1997 and 2004-2009. We showed that specific sea ice characteristics can predict the timing of seasonal polar bear migration on and off terrestrial refugia. In addition, fidelity to specific onshore regions during the ice-free period was predicted by the spatial pattern of sea ice break-up but not by the timing of break-up. The timing of migration showed a trend towards earlier arrival of polar bears on shore and later departure from land, which has been driven by climate-induced declines in the availability of sea ice. Changes to the timing of migration have resulted in polar bears spending progressively longer periods of time on land without access to sea ice and their marine mammal prey. The links between increased atmospheric temperatures, sea ice dynamics, and the migratory behaviour of an ice-dependent species emphasizes the importance of quantifying and monitoring relationships between migratory wildlife and environmental cues that may be altered by climate change.

A body composition model with multiple storage compartments for polar bears (Ursus maritimus).

Climate warming is rapidly altering Arctic ecosystems. Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) need sea ice as a platform from which to hunt seals, but increased sea-ice loss is lengthening periods when bears are without access to primary hunting habitat. During periods of food scarcity, survival depends on the energy that a bear has stored in body reserves, termed storage energy, making this a key metric in predictive models assessing climate change impacts on polar bears. Here, we developed a body composition model for polar bears that estimates storage energy while accounting for changes in storage tissue composition. We used data of dissected polar bears (n = 31) to link routinely collected field measures of total body mass and straight-line body length to the body composition of individual bears, described in terms of structural mass and two storage compartments, adipose and muscle. We then estimated the masses of metabolizable proteins and lipids within these storage compartments, giving total storage energy. We tested this multi-storage model by using it to predict changes in the lipid stores from an independent dataset of wild polar bears (n = 36) that were recaptured 8-200 days later. Using length and mass measurements, our model successfully predicted direct measurements of lipid changes via isotopic dilutions (root mean squared error of 14.5 kg). Separating storage into two compartments, and allowing the molecular composition of storage to vary, provides new avenues for quantifying energy stores of individuals across their life cycle. The multi-storage body composition model thus provides a basis for further exploring energetic costs of physiological processes that contribute to individual survival and reproductive success. Given bioenergetic models are increasingly used as a tool to predict individual fitness and population dynamics, our approach for estimating individual energy stores could be applicable to a wide range of species.

Drivers of polar bear behavior and the possible effects of prey availability on foraging strategy.

BACKGROUND: Change in behavior is one of the earliest responses to variation in habitat suitability. It is therefore important to understand the conditions that promote different behaviors, particularly in areas undergoing environmental change. Animal movement is tightly linked to behavior and remote tracking can be used to study ethology when direct observation is not possible. METHODS: We used movement data from 14 polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in Hudson Bay, Canada, during the foraging season (January-June), when bears inhabit the sea ice. We developed an error-tolerant method to correct for sea ice drift in tracking data. Next, we used hidden Markov models with movement and orientation relative to wind to study three behaviors (stationary, area-restricted search, and olfactory search) and examine effects of 11 covariates on behavior. RESULTS: Polar bears spent approximately 47% of their time in the stationary drift state, 29% in olfactory search, and 24% in area-restricted search. High energy behaviors occurred later in the day (around 20:00) compared to other populations. Second, olfactory search increased as the season progressed, which may reflect a shift in foraging strategy from still-hunting to active search linked to a shift in seal availability (i.e., increase in haul-outs from winter to the spring pupping and molting seasons). Last, we found spatial patterns of distribution linked to season, ice concentration, and bear age that may be tied to habitat quality and competitive exclusion. CONCLUSIONS: Our observations were generally consistent with predictions of the marginal value theorem, and differences between our findings and other populations could be explained by regional or temporal variation in resource availability. Our novel movement analyses and finding can help identify periods, regions, and conditions of critical habitat.

An on-ice aerial survey of the Kane Basin polar bear (Ursus maritimus) subpopulation.

There is an imminent need to collect information on distribution and abundance of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) to understand how they are affected by the ongoing decrease in Arctic sea ice. The Kane Basin (KB) subpopulation is a group of high-latitude polar bears that ranges between High Arctic Canada and NW Greenland around and north of the North Water polynya (NOW). We conducted a line transect distance sampling aerial survey of KB polar bears during 28 April-12 May 2014. A total of 4160 linear kilometers were flown in a helicopter over fast ice in the fjords and over offshore pack ice between 76° 50' and 80° N'. Using a mark-recapture distance sampling protocol, the estimated abundance was 190 bears (95% lognormal CI: 87-411; CV 39%). This estimate is likely negatively biased to an unknown degree because the offshore sectors of the NOW with much open water were not surveyed because of logistical and safety reasons. Our study demonstrated that aerial surveys may be a feasible method for obtaining abundance estimates for small subpopulations of polar bears.

Age-structured Jolly-Seber model expands inference and improves parameter estimation from capture-recapture data.

Understanding the influence of individual attributes on demographic processes is a key objective of wildlife population studies. Capture-recapture and age data are commonly collected to investigate hypotheses about survival, reproduction, and viability. We present a novel age-structured Jolly-Seber model that incorporates age and capture-recapture data to provide comprehensive information on population dynamics, including abundance, age-dependent survival, recruitment, age structure, and population growth rates. We applied our model to a multi-year capture-recapture study of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in western Hudson Bay, Canada (2012-2018), where management and conservation require a detailed understanding of how polar bears respond to climate change and other factors. In simulation studies, the age-structured Jolly-Seber model improved precision of survival, recruitment, and annual abundance estimates relative to standard Jolly-Seber models that omit age information. Furthermore, incorporating age information improved precision of population growth rates, increased power to detect trends in abundance, and allowed direct estimation of age-dependent survival and changes in annual age structure. Our case study provided detailed evidence for senescence in polar bear survival. Median survival estimates were lower (<0.95) for individuals aged <5 years, remained high (>0.95) for individuals aged 7-22 years, and subsequently declined to near zero for individuals >30 years. We also detected cascading effects of large recruitment classes on population age structure, which created major shifts in age structure when these classes entered the population and then again when they reached prime breeding ages (10-15 years old). Overall, age-structured Jolly-Seber models provide a flexible means to investigate ecological and evolutionary processes that shape populations (e.g., via senescence, life expectancy, and lifetime reproductive success) while improving our ability to investigate population dynamics and forecast population changes from capture-recapture data.

Comparing sea ice habitat fragmentation metrics using integrated step selection analysis.

Habitat fragmentation occurs when continuous habitat gets broken up as a result of ecosystem change. While commonly studied in terrestrial ecosystems, Arctic sea ice ecosystems also experience fragmentation, but are rarely studied in this context. Most fragmentation analyses are conducted using patch-based metrics, which are potentially less suitable for sea ice that has gradual changes between sea ice cover, than distinct "long-term" patches. Using an integrated step selection analysis, we compared the descriptive power of a patch-based metric to a more novel metric, the variation in local spatial autocorrelation over time. We used satellite telemetry data from 39 adult female polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in Hudson Bay to examine their sea ice habitat using Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 data during sea ice breakup in May through July from 2013-2018. Spatial autocorrelation resulted in better model fits across 64% of individuals, although both metrics were more effective in describing movement patterns than habitat selection. Variation in local spatial autocorrelation allows for the visualization of sea ice habitat at complex spatial and temporal scales, condensing a targeted time period of habitat that would otherwise have to be analyzed daily.

Influence of sea ice dynamics on population energetics of Western Hudson Bay polar bears.

The Arctic marine ecosystem has experienced extensive changes in sea ice dynamics, with significant effects on ice-dependent species such as polar bears (Ursus maritimus). We used annual estimates of the numbers of bears onshore in the core summering area, age/sex structure and body condition data to estimate population energy density and storage energy in Western Hudson Bay polar bears from 1985 to 2018. We examined intra-population variation in energetic patterns, temporal energetic trends and the relationship between population energetics and sea ice conditions. Energy metrics for most demographic classes declined over time in relation to earlier sea ice breakup, most significantly for solitary adult females and subadult males, suggesting their greater vulnerability to nutritional stress than other age/sex classes. Temporal declines in population energy metrics were related to earlier breakup and longer lagged open-water periods, suggesting multi-year effects of sea ice decline. The length of the open-water period ranged from 102 to 166 days and increased significantly by 9.9 days/decade over the study period. Total population energy density and storage energy were significantly lower when sea ice breakup occurred earlier and the lagged open-water period was longer. At the earliest breakup and a lagged open-water period of 180 days, population energy density was predicted to be 33% lower than our minimum estimated energy density and population storage energy was predicted to be 40% lower than the minimum estimated storage energy. Consequently, over the study, the total population energy density declined by 53% (mean: 3668 ± 386 MJ kg-1/decade) and total population storage energy declined by 56% (mean: 435900 ± 46770 MJ/decade). This study provides insights into ecological mechanisms linking population responses to sea ice decline and highlights the significance of maintaining long-term research programs.

Corrigendum: Windscapes and olfactory foraging in a large carnivore.

This corrects the article DOI: 10.1038/srep46332.