Net-Zero CO2 by 2050 Scenarios for the United States in the Energy Modeling Forum 37 Study.

The Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) 37 study on deep decarbonization and high electrification analyzed a set of scenarios that achieve economy-wide net-zero carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in North America by mid-century, exploring the implications of different technology evolutions, policies, and behavioral assumptions affecting energy supply and demand. For this paper, 16 modeling teams reported resulting emissions projections, energy system evolution, and economic activity. This paper provides an overview of the study, documents the scenario design, provides a roadmap for complementary forthcoming papers from this study, and offers an initial summary and comparison of results for net-zero CO2 by 2050 scenarios in the United States. We compare various outcomes across models and scenarios, such as emissions, energy use, fuel mix evolution, and technology adoption. Despite disparate model structure and sources for input assumptions, there is broad agreement in energy system trends across models towards deep decarbonization of the electricity sector coupled with increased end-use electrification of buildings, transportation, and to a lesser extent industry. All models deploy negative emissions technologies (e.g., direct air capture and bioenergy with carbon capture and storage) in addition to land sinks to achieve net-zero CO2 emissions. Important differences emerged in the results, showing divergent pathways among end-use sectors with deep electrification and grid decarbonization as necessary but not sufficient conditions to achieve net zero. These differences will be explored in the papers complementing this study to inform efforts to reach net-zero emissions and future research needs.

Nonequilibrium work fluctuations for oscillators in non-Markovian baths.

We study work fluctuation theorems for oscillators in non-Markovian heat baths. By calculating the work distribution function for a harmonic oscillator with motion described by the generalized Langevin equation, the Jarzynski equality (JE), transient fluctuation theorem (TFT), and Crooks' theorem (CT) are shown to be exact. In addition to this derivation, numerical simulations of anharmonic oscillators indicate that the validity of these nonequilibrium theorems does not depend on the memory of the bath. We find that the JE and the CT are valid under many oscillator potentials and driving forces, whereas the TFT is not applicable when the driving force is asymmetric in time and the potential is asymmetric in position.

Phenomenological model for a melt-freeze phase of sliding bilayers.

Simulations show that sliding bilayers of colloidal particles can exhibit a phase, the "melt-freeze" phase, where the layers stochastically alternate between solidlike and liquidlike states. We introduce a mean field phenomenological model with two order parameters to understand the interplay of two adjacent layers while the system is in this remarkable phase. Predictions from our numerical simulations of a system in the melt-freeze phase include the tendency of two adjacent layers to be in opposite states (solid and liquid) and the difference between the fluctuation of the order parameter in one layer while the other layer is in the same phase compared to the fluctuation while the other layer is in the opposite phase. We expect this behavior to be seen in future simulations and experiments.

Universality of one-dimensional heat conductivity.

We show analytically that the heat conductivity of oscillator chains diverges with system size N as N(1/3), which is the same as for one-dimensional fluids. For long cylinders, we use the hydrodynamic equations for a crystal in one dimension. This is appropriate for stiff systems such as nanotubes, where the eventual crossover to a fluid only sets in at unrealistically large . Despite the extra equation compared to a fluid, the scaling of the heat conductivity is unchanged. For strictly one-dimensional chains, we show that the dynamic equations are those of a fluid at all length scales even if the static order extends to very large . The discrepancy between our results and numerical simulations on Fermi-Pasta-Ulam chains is discussed.

Mechanism for nonequilibrium symmetry breaking and pattern formation in magnetic films.

Magnetic thin films exhibit a strong variation in properties depending on their degree of disorder. Recent coherent x-ray speckle experiments on magnetic films have measured the loss of correlation between configurations at opposite fields and at the same field, upon repeated field cycling. We perform finite temperature numerical simulations on these systems that provide a comprehensive explanation for the experimental results. The simulations demonstrate, in accordance with experiments, that the memory of configurations increases with film disorder. We find that nontrivial microscopic differences exist between the zero field spin configuration obtained by starting from a large positive field and the zero field configuration starting at a large negative field. This seemingly paradoxical behavior is due to the nature of the vector spin dynamics and is also seen in the experiments. For low disorder, there is an instability which causes the spontaneous growth of linelike domains at a critical field, also in accord with experiments. It is this unstable growth, which is highly sensitive to thermal noise, that is responsible for the small correlation between patterns under repeated cycling. The domain patterns, hysteresis loops, and memory properties of our simulated systems match remarkably well with the real experimental systems.

Hysteresis multicycles in nanomagnet arrays.

We predict two physical effects in arrays of single-domain nanomagnets by performing simulations using a realistic model Hamiltonian and physical parameters. First, we find hysteretic multicycles for such nanomagnets. The simulation uses continuous spin dynamics through the Landau-Lifshitz-Gilbert (LLG) equation. In some regions of parameter space, the probability of finding a multicycle is as high as approximately 0.6 . We find that systems with larger and more anisotropic nanomagnets tend to display more multicycles. Our results also demonstrate the importance of disorder and frustration for multicycle behavior. Second, we show that there is a fundamental difference between the more realistic vector LLG equation and scalar models of hysteresis, such as Ising models. In the latter case spin and external field inversion symmetry is obeyed, but in the former it is destroyed by the dynamics, with important experimental implications.

Equilibration and universal heat conduction in fermi-pasta-ulam chains.

It is shown numerically that for Fermi-Pasta-Ulam (FPU) chains with alternating masses and heat baths at slightly different temperatures at the ends, the local temperature (LT) on small scales behaves paradoxically in steady state. This expands the long established problem of equilibration of FPU chains. A well-behaved LT appears to be achieved for equal mass chains; the thermal conductivity is shown to diverge with chain length N as N(1/3), relevant for the much debated question of the universality of one-dimensional heat conduction. The reason why earlier simulations have obtained systematically higher exponents is explained.