One-year Results of a Factorial Randomized Trial of Aspirin versus Placebo and Clonidine versus Placebo in Patients Having Noncardiac Surgery.

BACKGROUND: The authors previously reported that perioperative aspirin and/or clonidine does not prevent a composite of death or myocardial infarction 30 days after noncardiac surgery. Moreover, aspirin increased the risk of major bleeding and clonidine caused hypotension and bradycardia. Whether these complications produce harm at 1 yr remains unknown. METHODS: The authors randomized 10,010 patients with or at risk of atherosclerosis and scheduled for noncardiac surgery in a 1:1:1:1 ratio to clonidine/aspirin, clonidine/aspirin placebo, clonidine placebo/aspirin, or clonidine placebo/aspirin placebo. Patients started taking aspirin or placebo just before surgery; those not previously taking aspirin continued daily for 30 days, and those taking aspirin previously continued for 7 days. Patients were also randomly assigned to receive clonidine or placebo just before surgery, with the study drug continued for 72 h. RESULTS: Neither aspirin nor clonidine had a significant effect on the primary 1-yr outcome, a composite of death or nonfatal myocardial infarction, with a 1-yr hazard ratio for aspirin of 1.00 (95% CI, 0.89 to 1.12; P = 0.948; 586 patients [11.8%] vs. 589 patients [11.8%]) and a hazard ratio for clonidine of 1.07 (95% CI, 0.96 to 1.20; P = 0.218; 608 patients [12.1%] vs. 567 patients [11.3%]), with effect on death or nonfatal infarction. Reduction in death and nonfatal myocardial infarction from aspirin in patients who previously had percutaneous coronary intervention at 30 days persisted at 1 yr. Specifically, the hazard ratio was 0.58 (95% CI, 0.35 to 0.95) in those with previous percutaneous coronary intervention and 1.03 (95% CI, 0.91to 1.16) in those without (interaction P = 0.033). There was no significant effect of either drug on death, cardiovascular complications, cancer, or chronic incisional pain at 1 yr (all P > 0.1). CONCLUSIONS: Neither perioperative aspirin nor clonidine have significant long-term effects after noncardiac surgery. Perioperative aspirin in patients with previous percutaneous coronary intervention showed persistent benefit at 1 yr, a plausible sub-group effect.

Perioperative patient outcomes in the African Surgical Outcomes Study: a 7-day prospective observational cohort study.

BACKGROUND: There is a need to increase access to surgical treatments in African countries, but perioperative complications represent a major global health-care burden. There are few studies describing surgical outcomes in Africa. METHODS: We did a 7-day, international, prospective, observational cohort study of patients aged 18 years and older undergoing any inpatient surgery in 25 countries in Africa (the African Surgical Outcomes Study). We aimed to recruit as many hospitals as possible using a convenience sampling survey, and required data from at least ten hospitals per country (or half the surgical centres if there were fewer than ten hospitals) and data for at least 90% of eligible patients from each site. Each country selected one recruitment week between February and May, 2016. The primary outcome was in-hospital postoperative complications, assessed according to predefined criteria and graded as mild, moderate, or severe. Data were presented as median (IQR), mean (SD), or n (%), and compared using t tests. This study is registered on the South African National Health Research Database (KZ_2015RP7_22) and ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT03044899). FINDINGS: We recruited 11 422 patients (median 29 [IQR 10-70]) from 247 hospitals during the national cohort weeks. Hospitals served a median population of 810 000 people (IQR 200 000-2 000 000), with a combined number of specialist surgeons, obstetricians, and anaesthetists totalling 0·7 (0·2-1·9) per 100 000 population. Hospitals did a median of 212 (IQR 65-578) surgical procedures per 100 000 population each year. Patients were younger (mean age 38·5 years [SD 16·1]), with a lower risk profile (American Society of Anesthesiologists median score 1 [IQR 1-2]) than reported in high-income countries. 1253 (11%) patients were infected with HIV, 6504 procedures (57%) were urgent or emergent, and the most common procedure was caesarean delivery (3792 patients, 33%). Postoperative complications occurred in 1977 (18·2%, 95% CI 17·4-18·9]) of 10 885 patients. 239 (2·1%) of 11 193 patients died, 225 (94·1%) after the day of surgery. Infection was the most common complication (1156 [10·2%] of 10 970 patients), of whom 112 (9·7%) died. INTERPRETATION: Despite a low-risk profile and few postoperative complications, patients in Africa were twice as likely to die after surgery when compared with the global average for postoperative deaths. Initiatives to increase access to surgical treatments in Africa therefore should be coupled with improved surveillance for deteriorating physiology in patients who develop postoperative complications, and the resources necessary to achieve this objective. FUNDING: Medical Research Council of South Africa.

Quantifying the impact of different approaches for handling continuous predictors on the performance of a prognostic model.

Continuous predictors are routinely encountered when developing a prognostic model. Investigators, who are often non-statisticians, must decide how to handle continuous predictors in their models. Categorising continuous measurements into two or more categories has been widely discredited, yet is still frequently done because of its simplicity, investigator ignorance of the potential impact and of suitable alternatives, or to facilitate model uptake. We examine three broad approaches for handling continuous predictors on the performance of a prognostic model, including various methods of categorising predictors, modelling a linear relationship between the predictor and outcome and modelling a nonlinear relationship using fractional polynomials or restricted cubic splines. We compare the performance (measured by the c-index, calibration and net benefit) of prognostic models built using each approach, evaluating them using separate data from that used to build them. We show that categorising continuous predictors produces models with poor predictive performance and poor clinical usefulness. Categorising continuous predictors is unnecessary, biologically implausible and inefficient and should not be used in prognostic model development. © 2016 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Precision of noninvasive hemoglobin-level measurement by pulse co-oximetry in patients admitted to intensive care units for severe gastrointestinal bleeds.

OBJECTIVES: Measurement of total hemoglobin, based on pulse co-oximetry, is a continuous and noninvasive method that has been principally evaluated in healthy volunteers subjected to hemodilution. We tested the hypothesis that its accuracy could adversely affect patients presenting with severe hemorrhage, which is traditionally associated with increased microvascular tone. DESIGN: Observational study. SETTING: Twelve-bed mixed medico-surgical intensive care unit. PATIENTS: Thirty-three patients admitted to our critical care unit for gastrointestinal bleeds were included. INTERVENTIONS: A spectrophotometric sensor was positioned on the patient's fingertip and connected to a pulse co-oximeter. During the first 24 hrs following admission, venous hemoglobin level was determined at the laboratory every 8 hrs and was compared with hemoglobin levels displayed on the pulse co-oximeter measurements screen and/or measured from capillary blood using a portable photometer. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: The primary end point was the percentage of inaccurate measurements, which were defined as >15% difference compared with reference values or their unavailability for any technical reason. Twenty-five (19%) measurements of pulse co-oximeter measurements were unavailable from the screen. Pulse co-oximeter measurements and capillary hemoglobin levels were significantly correlated to venous hemoglobin level. For venous hemoglobin level compared with pulse co-oximeter measurements (n = 105), and for venous hemoglobin level compared with capillary hemoglobin levels (n = 111), the biases were, respectively, 1.0 ± 1.9 g dL and 0.4 ± 1.0 g dL (p < .05). The proportion of inaccurate measurements was significantly higher for pulse co-oximeter measurements (56% vs. 15%, p < .05). Although the use of norepinephrine did not affect concordance parameters, unavailability of measurements was frequently observed (42% vs. 15%, p < .05). CONCLUSIONS: Determination of pulse co-oximetry-based hemoglobin in patients presenting with severe gastrointestinal bleeds can be inaccurate, which renders its use to guide transfusion decisions potentially hazardous. The unavailability of measurements, especially during vasopressor infusion, represents another serious limitation for hemorrhagic patients.

Comparison of single-use and reusable metal laryngoscope blades for orotracheal intubation during rapid sequence induction of anesthesia: a multicenter cluster randomized study.

BACKGROUND: Single-use metal laryngoscope blades are cheaper and carry a lower risk of infection than reusable metal blades. The authors compared single-use and reusable metal blades during rapid sequence induction of anesthesia in a multicenter cluster randomized trial. METHODS: One thousand seventy-two adult patients undergoing general anesthesia under emergency conditions and requiring rapid sequence induction were randomly assigned on a weekly basis to either single-use or reusable metal blades (cluster randomization). After induction, a 60-s period was allowed to complete intubation. In the case of failed intubation, a second attempt was performed using the opposite type of blade. The primary endpoint was the rate of failed intubation, and the secondary endpoints were the incidence of complications (oxygen desaturation, lung aspiration, and/or oropharynx trauma) and the Cormack and Lehane score. RESULTS: Both groups were similar in their main characteristics, including the risk factors for difficult intubation. The rate of failed intubation was significantly decreased with single-use metal blades at the first attempt compared with reusable blades (2.8 vs. 5.4%, P < 0.05). In addition, the proportion of grades III and IV in Cormack and Lehane score were also significantly decreased with single-use metal blades (6 vs. 10%, P < 0.05). The global complication rate did not reach statistical significance, although the same trend was noted (6.8% vs. 11.5%, P = not significant). An investigator survey and a measure of illumination pointed that illumination might have been responsible for this result. CONCLUSIONS: The single-use metal blade was more efficient than a reusable metal blade in rapid sequence induction of anesthesia.