Elevated carbon dioxide and reduced salinity enhance mangrove seedling establishment in an artificial saltmarsh community.

The global phenomenon of mangrove encroachment into saltmarshes has been observed across five continents. It has been proposed that this encroachment is driven in part by rising atmospheric CO2 concentration and reduced salinity in saltmarshes resulting from rising sea levels enhancing the establishment success of mangrove seedlings. However, this theory is yet to be empirically tested at the community-level. In this study, we examined the effect of CO2 and salinity on seedling growth of two mangrove species, Aegiceras corniculatum and Avicennia marina, grown individually and in a model saltmarsh community in a glasshouse experiment. We found that the shoot (210%) and root (91%) biomass of the saltmarsh species was significantly greater under elevated CO2. As a result, both mangrove species experienced a stronger competitive effect from the saltmarsh species under elevated CO2. Nevertheless, A. marina seedlings produced on average 48% more biomass under elevated CO2 when grown in competition with the saltmarsh species. The seedlings tended to allocate this additional biomass to growing taller suggesting they were light limited. In contrast, A. corniculatum growth did not significantly differ between CO2 treatments. However, it had on average 36% greater growth under seawater salinity compared to hypersaline conditions. Avicennia marina seedlings were not affected by salinity. From these results, we suggest that although CO2 and salinity are not universal drivers determining saltmarsh-mangrove boundaries, it is likely that rising atmospheric CO2 concentration and reduced salinity associated with sea level rise will enhance the establishment success of mangrove seedlings in saltmarshes, which may facilitate mangrove encroachment in the future.

Do invasive alien plants benefit more from global environmental change than native plants?

Invasive alien plant species threaten native biodiversity, disrupt ecosystem functions and can cause large economic damage. Plant invasions have been predicted to further increase under ongoing global environmental change. Numerous case studies have compared the performance of invasive and native plant species in response to global environmental change components (i.e. changes in mean levels of precipitation, temperature, atmospheric CO2 concentration or nitrogen deposition). Individually, these studies usually involve low numbers of species and therefore the results cannot be generalized. Therefore, we performed a phylogenetically controlled meta-analysis to assess whether there is a general pattern of differences in invasive and native plant performance under each component of global environmental change. We compiled a database of studies that reported performance measures for 74 invasive alien plant species and 117 native plant species in response to one of the above-mentioned global environmental change components. We found that elevated temperature and CO2 enrichment increased the performance of invasive alien plants more strongly than was the case for native plants. Invasive alien plants tended to also have a slightly stronger positive response to increased N deposition and increased precipitation than native plants, but these differences were not significant (N deposition: P = 0.051; increased precipitation: P = 0.679). Invasive alien plants tended to have a slightly stronger negative response to decreased precipitation than native plants, although this difference was also not significant (P = 0.060). So while drought could potentially reduce plant invasion, increases in the four other components of global environmental change considered, particularly global warming and atmospheric CO2 enrichment, may further increase the spread of invasive plants in the future.

Reductions in native grass biomass associated with drought facilitates the invasion of an exotic grass into a model grassland system.

The invasion success of exotic plant species is often dependent on resource availability. Aspects of climate change such as rising atmospheric CO2 concentration and extreme climatic events will directly and indirectly alter resource availability in ecological communities. Understanding how these climate change-associated changes in resource availability will interact with one another to influence the invasion success of exotic plant species is complex. The aim of the study was to assess the establishment success of an invasive exotic species in response to climate change-associated changes in resource availability (CO2 levels and soil water availability) as a result of extreme drought. We grew grassland mesocosms consisting of four co-occurring native grass species common to the Cumberland Plain Woodland of western Sydney, Australia, under ambient and elevated CO2 levels and subjected them to an extreme drought treatment. We then added seeds of a highly invasive C3 grass, Ehrharta erecta, and assessed its establishment success (biomass production and reproductive output). We found that reduced biomass production of the native grasses in response to the extreme drought treatment enhanced the establishment success of E. erecta by creating resource pulses in light and space. Surprisingly, CO2 level did not affect the establishment success of E. erecta. Our results suggest that the invasion risk of grasslands in the future may be coupled to soil water availability and the subsequent response of resident native vegetation therefore making it strongly context- dependent.

Competitive interactions between native and invasive exotic plant species are altered under elevated carbon dioxide.

We hypothesized that the greater competitive ability of invasive exotic plants relative to native plants would increase under elevated CO(2) because they typically have traits that confer the ability for fast growth when resources are not limiting and thus are likely to be more responsive to elevated CO(2). A series of competition experiments under ambient and elevated CO(2) glasshouse conditions were conducted to determine an index of relative competition intensity for 14 native-invasive exotic species-pairs. Traits including specific leaf area, leaf mass ratio, leaf area ratio, relative growth rate, net assimilation rate and root weight ratio were measured. Competitive rankings within species-pairs were not affected by CO(2) concentration: invasive exotic species were more competitive in 9 of the 14 species-pairs and native species were more competitive in the remaining 5 species-pairs, regardless of CO(2) concentration. However, there was a significant interaction between plant type and CO(2) treatment due to reduced competitive response of native species under elevated compared with ambient CO(2) conditions. Native species had significantly lower specific leaf area and leaf area ratio under elevated compared with ambient CO(2). We also compared traits of more-competitive with less-competitive species, regardless of plant type, under both CO(2) treatments. More-competitive species had smaller leaf weight ratio and leaf area ratio, and larger relative growth rate and net assimilation rate under both ambient and elevated CO(2) conditions. These results suggest that growth and allocation traits can be useful predictors of the outcome of competitive interactions under both ambient and elevated CO(2) conditions. Under predicted future atmospheric CO(2) conditions, competitive rankings among species may not change substantially, but the relative success of invasive exotic species may be increased. Thus, under future atmospheric CO(2) conditions, the ecological and economic impact of some invasive exotic plants may be even greater than under current conditions.

Plant biodiversity in the face of global change.

Le Roux et al. suggest that documented increases in local plant richness in response to climate change should consider the nature of 'new' species. They find that species responsible for increases in richness in areas that have experienced significant disturbance and climate change are often invasive and/or weedy species.

Substantial declines in urban tree habitat predicted under climate change.

Globally, local governments are increasing investment in urban greening projects. However, there is little consideration of whether the species being planted will be resilient to climate change. We assessed the distribution of climatically suitable habitat, now and in the future, for 176 tree species native to Australia, commonly planted across Australia's Significant Urban Areas (SUAs) and currently grown by commercial nurseries. Species' occurrence records were obtained from inventories and herbaria, globally and across Australia, and combined with baseline climate data (WorldClim, 1960-1990) and six climate scenarios for 2030 and 2070 using climatic suitability models (CSMs). CSMs for each species were calibrated and projected onto baseline and future scenarios. We calculated changes in the size of climatically suitable habitat for each species across each SUA, and identified urban areas that are likely to have suitable climate for either fewer or more of our study species under future climate. By 2070, climatically suitable habitat in SUAs is predicted to decline for 73% of species assessed. For 18% of these species, climatically suitable area is predicted to be more than halved, relative to their baseline extent. Generally, for urban areas in cooler regions, climatically suitable habitat is predicted to increase. By contrast, for urban areas in warmer regions, a greater proportion of tree species may lose climatically suitable habitat. Our results highlight changing patterns of urban climatic space for commonly planted species, suggesting that local governments and the horticultural industry should take a proactive approach to identify new climate-ready species for urban plantings.

Leaf area index drives soil water availability and extreme drought-related mortality under elevated CO2 in a temperate grassland model system.

The magnitude and frequency of climatic extremes, such as drought, are predicted to increase under future climate change conditions. However, little is known about how other factors such as CO2 concentration will modify plant community responses to these extreme climatic events, even though such modifications are highly likely. We asked whether the response of grasslands to repeat extreme drought events is modified by elevated CO2, and if so, what are the underlying mechanisms? We grew grassland mesocosms consisting of 10 co-occurring grass species common to the Cumberland Plain Woodland of western Sydney under ambient and elevated CO2 and subjected them to repeated extreme drought treatments. The 10 species included a mix of C3, C4, native and exotic species. We hypothesized that a reduction in the stomatal conductance of the grasses under elevated CO2 would be offset by increases in the leaf area index thus the retention of soil water and the consequent vulnerability of the grasses to extreme drought would not differ between the CO2 treatments. Our results did not support this hypothesis: soil water content was significantly lower in the mesocosms grown under elevated CO2 and extreme drought-related mortality of the grasses was greater. The C4 and native grasses had significantly higher leaf area index under elevated CO2 levels. This offset the reduction in the stomatal conductance of the exotic grasses as well as increased rainfall interception, resulting in reduced soil water content in the elevated CO2 mesocosms. Our results suggest that projected increases in net primary productivity globally of grasslands in a high CO2 world may be limited by reduced soil water availability in the future.