Cancer survival differences between South Asians and non-South Asians of England in 1986-2004, accounting for age at diagnosis and deprivation.

BACKGROUND: South Asian migrants show lower cancer incidence than their host population in England for most major cancers. We seek to study the ethnic differences in survival from cancer. METHODS: We described and modelled the effect of ethnicity, time, age and deprivation on survival for the five most incident cancers in each sex in South Asians in England between 1986 and 2004 using national cancer registry data. South Asian ethnicity was flagged using the validated name-recognition algorithm SANGRA (South Asian Names and Group Recognition Algorithm). RESULTS: We observed survival advantage in South Asians in earlier periods. This ethnic gap either remained constant or narrowed over time. By 2004, age-standardised net survival was comparable for all cancers except three in men, where South Asians had higher survival 5 years after diagnosis: colorectal (58.9% vs 53.6%), liver (15.0% vs 9.4%) and lung (15.9% vs 9.3%). Compared with non-South Asians, South Asians experienced a slower increase in breast and prostate cancer survival, both cancers associated with either a screening programme or an early diagnosis test. We did not find differential patterns in survival by deprivation between both ethnicities. CONCLUSIONS: Considering recent survival trends, appropriate action is required to avoid deficits in cancer survival among South Asians in the near future.

Factors associated with being lost to follow-up before completing tuberculosis treatment: analysis of surveillance data.

Completion of treatment is key to tuberculosis control. Using national surveillance data we assessed factors associated with tuberculosis patients being lost to follow-up before completing treatment ('lost'). Patients reported in England, Wales and Northern Ireland between 2001 and 2007 who were lost 12 months after beginning treatment were compared to those who completed, or were still on treatment, using univariable and multivariable logistic regression. Of 41 120 patients, men [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 1·29; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1·23-1·35], 15- to 44-year-olds (P<0·001), and patients with pulmonary sputum smear-positive disease (aOR 1·25, 95% CI 1·12-1·45) were at higher risk of being lost. Those recently arrived in the UK were also at increased risk, particularly those of the White ethnic group (aOR 6·39, 95% CI 4·46-9·14). Finally, lost patients had a higher risk of drug resistance (aOR 1·41, 95% CI 1·17-1·69). Patients at risk of being lost require enhanced case management and novel case retention methods are needed to prevent this group contributing towards onward transmission.

Modelling the control of bovine brucellosis in India.

Brucellosis imposes substantial impacts on livestock production and public health worldwide. A stochastic, age-structured model incorporating herd demographics was developed describing within- and between-herd transmission of Brucella abortus in dairy cattle herds. The model was fitted to data from a cross-sectional study conducted in Punjab State of India and used to evaluate the effectiveness of control strategies under consideration. Based on model results, stakeholder acceptance and constraints regarding vaccine supply, vaccination of replacement calves in large farms should be prioritized. Test and removal applied at early stages of the control programme where seroprevalence is high would not constitute an effective or acceptable use of resources because significant numbers of animals would be 'removed' (culled or not used for breeding) based on false positive results. To achieve sustained reductions in brucellosis, policymakers must commit to maintaining vaccination in the long term, which may eventually reduce frequency of infection in the livestock reservoir to a low enough level for elimination to be a realistic objective. This work provides key strategic insights into the control of brucellosis in India, which has the largest cattle population globally, and a general modelling framework for evaluating control strategies in endemic settings.

Cancer mortality in ethnic South Asian migrants in England and Wales (1993-2003): patterns in the overall population and in first and subsequent generations.

BACKGROUND: Cancer mortality has been examined among ethnic South Asian migrants in England and Wales, but not by generation of migration. METHODS: Using South Asian mortality records, identified by a name-recognition algorithm, and census information, age-standardised rates among South Asians, and South Asian vs non-South Asian rate ratios, were calculated. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: All-cancer rates in ethnic South Asians were half of those in non-South Asians in first-generation (all-cancer-standardised mortality ratio (SMR) in males 0.51 and in females 0.56) and subsequent-generation South Asians (SMR in males 0.43 and in females 0.36). The higher mortality in first-generation South Asians for liver (both sexes), oral cavity and gallbladder cancer (females), particularly marked among Bangladeshis, was reduced in subsequent generations.

School absence data for influenza surveillance: a pilot study in the United Kingdom.

School-age children are at a high risk of acute respiratory virus infections including the 2009 pandemic influenza A(H1N1). School absence records have been suggested as a tool for influenza surveillance. We analysed absence records from six primary schools (children aged from around five to 11 years) in London during the years 2005 to 2007 in order to provide baseline epidemiological characteristics of illness-related school absence, and to correlate school absence with seasonal influenza. The daily average prevalence of absence due to illness was 2.9%. The incidence was 1.3% per person-day. The mean duration of absence was 1.8 days (SD 1.8). Over 60% of absence episodes lasted for one day. Absence prevalence did not differ by sex. Prevalence was highest in the youngest children and then declined slightly, but was again high again in the oldest. Absence was slightly higher on Mondays and Fridays. In general, peaks of absenteeism coincided with peaks of influenza A and B (laboratory reports) but several high peaks were not associated with influenza. There was a better correlation between absence and laboratory reports and prevalence compared to incidence. School absence data may be useful for the detection of localised school outbreaks and as an additional surveillance tool but are limited by lack of data on weekends and during holidays.

Injectable vaccines for preventing pneumococcal infection in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

BACKGROUND: As chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) progresses, exacerbations can occur with increasing frequency. One goal of therapy in COPD is to try and prevent these exacerbations, thereby reducing disease morbidity and associated healthcare costs. Pneumococcal vaccinations are considered to be one strategy for reducing the risk of infective exacerbations. OBJECTIVES: To determine the safety and efficacy of pneumococcal vaccination in COPD. The primary outcome assessed was acute exacerbations. Secondary outcomes of interest included episodes of pneumonia, hospital admissions, adverse events related to treatment, disability, change in lung function, mortality, and cost effectiveness. SEARCH STRATEGY: We searched the Cochrane Airways Group COPD trials register using pre-specified terms. We also conducted additional handsearches of conference abstracts. The last round of searches were performed in April 2006. SELECTION CRITERIA: Only randomised controlled trials assessing the effects of injectable pneumococcal vaccine in people with COPD were included. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two review authors independently extracted data and three review authors independently assessed trial quality. MAIN RESULTS: Although 10 studies cited in 11 publications were identified that met the inclusion criteria for this review, only four of these provided data on participants with COPD. The studies which did provide data for this review consisted of two trials using a 14-valent vaccine, and two using a 23-valent injectable vaccine. Data for the primary outcome, acute exacerbation of COPD, was available from only one of the four studies. The odds ratio of 1.43 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.31 to 6.69) between interventions was not statistically significant. Of the secondary outcomes for which data were available and could be extracted, none reached statistical significance. Three studies provided dichotomous data for persons who developed pneumonia (OR 0.89, 95% CI 0.58 to 1.37, n = 748). Rates of hospital admissions and emergency department visits came from a single study. There was no significant reduction in the odds of all-cause mortality 1 to 48 months post-vaccination (Peto odds ratio 0.94, 95% CI 0.67 to 1.33, n = 888), or for death from cardiorespiratory causes (OR 1.07, 95% CI 0.69 to 1.66). AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: There is no evidence from randomised controlled trials that injectable pneumococcal vaccination in persons with COPD has a significant impact on morbidity or mortality. Further large randomised controlled trials would be needed to ascertain if the small benefits suggested by individual studies are real.

Hepatitis B vaccination: the cost effectiveness of alternative strategies in England and Wales.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the cost effectiveness of adding universal hepatitis B vaccination in infancy or pre-adolescence to a policy of selective vaccination of at risk groups. DESIGN: Costs of a selective policy and additional costs of universal vaccination policies were estimated from costs of vaccine delivery and published data on target populations. Additional years of life gained were calculated for each policy by applying life tables to estimates of mortality attributable to hepatitis B. SETTING: England and Wales. RESULTS: Compared with no vaccination, vaccination in infancy was the most cost effective followed by vaccination in preadolescence. Selective vaccination was the least effective (cost per year of life gained 2568 pounds, 2824 pounds, and 8564 pounds respectively). Adding vaccination in infancy or at pre-adolescence to a selective policy cost 1537 pounds or 1658 pounds per year of life gained. Discounting years gained in the future at 6% per annum, however, made pre-adolescent vaccination more cost effective than infant or selective vaccination (51,817 pounds, 94,821 pounds, and 124,779 pounds per discounted year of life gained). Adding pre-adolescent vaccination to a selective policy cost 32,125 pounds per discounted year of life gained and infant vaccination, 77,085 pounds. CONCLUSIONS: Universal vaccination against hepatitis B was more cost effective than selective vaccination in a low prevalence country. Discounting future health gain, however, made universal infant vaccination lest cost effective than universal pre-adolescent vaccination. If future health gained is as important as present gain the addition of universal vaccination to a selective policy is equivalent to the cost per quality adjusted year of life from renal transplantation or breast cancer screening.

Association between breast feeding and growth: the Boyd-Orr cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the association of breast feeding with height and body mass index in childhood and adulthood. DESIGN: Historical cohort study, based on long term follow up of the Carnegie (Boyd-Orr) survey of diet and health in pre-war Britain (1937-1939). SETTING: Sixteen urban and rural districts in Britain. SUBJECTS: A total of 4999 children from 1352 families were surveyed in 1937-1939. Information on infant feeding and childhood anthropometry was available for 2995 subjects. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Mean differences in childhood and adult anthropometry between breast and bottle fed subjects. RESULTS: Breast feeding was associated with the survey district, greater household income, and food expenditure, but not with number of children in the household, birth order, or social class. In childhood, breast fed subjects were significantly taller than bottle fed subjects after controlling for socioeconomic variables. The mean height difference among boys was 0.20 standard deviation (SD) (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.07 to 0.32), and among girls it was 0.14 SD (95% CI 0.02 to 0.27). Leg length, but not trunk length, was the component of height associated with breast feeding. In males, breast feeding was associated with greater adult height (difference: 0.34 SD, 95% CI 0.13 to 0.55); of the two components of height, leg length (0.26 SD, 95% CI 0.02 to 0.50) was more strongly related to breast feeding than trunk length (0.16 SD, 95% CI -0.04 to 0.35). Height and leg length differences were in the same direction but smaller among adult females. There was no association between breast feeding and body mass index in childhood or adulthood. CONCLUSIONS: Compared with bottle fed infants, infants breast fed in the 1920s and 1930s were taller in childhood and adulthood. As stature is associated with health and life expectancy, the possible long term impact of infant feeding on adult mortality patterns merits further investigation.

Socioeconomic deprivation and notification rates for tuberculosis in London during 1982-91.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate the association between four sociodemographic measures (unemployment, overcrowding, low social class, and the proportion of migrants from areas of high prevalence of tuberculosis) and average level and rate of change of notification rates for tuberculosis. DESIGN: Ecological analysis of both the average and the rate of change of standardised annual notification rates for tuberculosis from 1982-91 and sociodemographic measures from the 1981 and 1991 censuses. SETTING: 32 London boroughs. SUBJECTS AND DATA: Sociodemographic measures from the 1981 and 1991 censuses and tuberculosis notification rates for 1982-91. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: A measure of the association between average levels and rate of change in tuberculosis notification rates and four sociodemographic measures in 1981 and between the rate of change in tuberculosis notification rates between 1981 and 1991 and changes in sociodemographic measures between 1981 and 1991. RESULTS: The average level of notifications was correlated with overcrowding and the proportion of migrants but not with unemployment or social class. No significant association was found between the rate of change in notification rates and sociodemographic measures in 1981. An association was found between increases in unemployment and the rate of change in notification rates, but the effect was small. Changes in the levels of unemployment explained 23% of the variation between boroughs in the rate of change in their notification rates. CONCLUSION: The average tuberculosis notification rates were related to overcrowding and the proportion of migrants in 1981. Only increases in unemployment from 1981 to 1991, however, were significantly associated with the rate of change in notifications over the same period.

Influenza vaccination. Shot down.

The government's policy to give everyone over 65 a flu vaccination this winter lacks detail on implementation. A study of vaccination in nine general practices in England last year suggests much greater organisation is required to achieve high take-up rates. Although all practices were computerised and had an age-sex register, they did not use these to plan their vaccination programmes. On its own, computerisation is not a sufficient basis for organising a comprehensive programme. Most practices relied on patients presenting themselves for vaccination.

Effect of BCG vaccination against Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection in children: systematic review and meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVES: To determine whether BCG vaccination protects against Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection as assessed by interferon γ release assays (IGRA) in children. DESIGN: Systematic review and meta-analysis. Searches of electronic databases 1950 to November 2013, checking of reference lists, hand searching of journals, and contact with experts. SETTING: Community congregate settings and households. INCLUSION CRITERIA: Vaccinated and unvaccinated children aged under 16 with known recent exposure to patients with pulmonary tuberculosis. Children were screened for infection with M tuberculosis with interferon γ release assays. DATA EXTRACTION: Study results relating to diagnostic accuracy were extracted and risk estimates were combined with random effects meta-analysis. RESULTS: The primary analysis included 14 studies and 3855 participants. The estimated overall risk ratio was 0.81 (95% confidence interval 0.71 to 0.92), indicating a protective efficacy of 19% against infection among vaccinated children after exposure compared with unvaccinated children. The observed protection was similar when estimated with the two types of interferon γ release assays (ELISpot or QuantiFERON). Restriction of the analysis to the six studies (n=1745) with information on progression to active tuberculosis at the time of screening showed protection against infection of 27% (risk ratio 0.73, 0.61 to 0.87) compared with 71% (0.29, 0.15 to 0.58) against active tuberculosis. Among those infected, protection against progression to disease was 58% (0.42, 0.23 to 0.77). CONCLUSIONS: BCG protects against M tuberculosis infection as well as progression from infection to disease.Trial registration PROSPERO registration No CRD42011001698 (www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/).

Systematic review and meta-analysis of the current evidence on the duration of protection by bacillus Calmette-Guérin vaccination against tuberculosis.

BACKGROUND: Recent evidence suggests that the duration of protection by bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) may exceed previous estimates with potential implications for estimating clinical and cost-efficacy. OBJECTIVES: To estimate the protection and duration of protection provided by BCG vaccination against tuberculosis, explore how this protection changes with time since vaccination, and examine the reasons behind the variation in protection and the rate of waning of protection. DATA SOURCES: Electronic databases including MEDLINE, Excerpta Medica Database (EMBASE), Cochrane Databases, NHS Economic Evaluation Database (NHS EED), Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects (DARE), Web of Knowledge, Biosciences Information Service (BIOSIS), Latin American and Caribbean Health Sciences Literature (LILACs), MEDCARIB Database, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL) were searched from inception to May 2009. Index to Theses, System for Information on Grey Literature in Europe (SIGLE), Centre for Agricultural Bioscience International (CABI) Abstracts, Scopus, Article First, Academic Complete, Africa-Wide Information, Google Scholar, Global Health, British National Bibliography for Report Literature, and clinical trial registration websites were searched from inception to October 2009. REVIEW METHODS: Electronic databases searches, screening of identified studies, data extraction and analysis were undertaken. Meta-analysis was used to present numerical and graphical summaries of clinical efficacy and efficacy by time since vaccination. Evidence of heterogeneity was assessed using the tau-squared statistic. Meta-regression allowed the investigation of observed heterogeneity. Factors investigated included BCG strain, latitude, stringency of pre-BCG vaccination tuberculin testing, age at vaccination, site of disease, study design and vulnerability to biases. Rate of waning of protection was estimated using the ratio of the measure of efficacy after 10 years compared with the efficacy in the first 10 years of a study. RESULTS: Study selection. A total of 21,030 references were identified, providing data on 132 studies after abstract and full-text review. Efficacy. Protection against pulmonary tuberculosis in adults is variable, ranging from substantial protection in the UK MRC trial {rate ratio 0.22 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.16 to 0.31]}, to absence of clinically important benefit, as in the large Chingleput trial [rate ratio 1.05 (95% CI 0.88 to 1.25)] and greater in latitudes further away from the equator. BCG vaccination efficacy was usually high, and varied little by form of disease (with higher protection against meningeal and miliary tuberculosis) or study design when BCG vaccination was given only to infants or to children after strict screening for tuberculin sensitivity. High levels of protection against death were observed from both trials and observational studies. The observed protective effect of BCG vaccination did not differ by the strain of BCG vaccine used in trials. DURATION: Reviewed studies showed that BCG vaccination protects against pulmonary and extrapulmonary tuberculosis for up to 10 years. Most studies either did not follow up participants for long enough or had very few cases after 15 years. This should not be taken to indicate an absence of effect: five studies (one trial and four observational studies) provided evidence of measurable protection at least 15 years after vaccination. Efficacy declined with time. The rate of decline was variable, with faster decline in latitudes further from the equator and in situations where BCG vaccination was given to tuberculin-sensitive participants after stringent tuberculin testing. LIMITATIONS: The main limitation of this review relates to quality of included trials, most of which were conducted before current standards for reporting were formulated. In addition, data were lacking in some areas and the review had to rely on evidence from observational studies. CONCLUSIONS: BCG vaccination protection against tuberculosis varies between populations, to an extent that cannot be attributed to chance alone. Failure to exclude those already sensitised to mycobacteria and study latitude closer to the equator were associated with lower efficacy. These factors explained most of the observed variation. There is good evidence that BCG vaccination protection declines with time and that protection can last for up to 10 years. Data on protection beyond 15 years are limited; however, a small number of trials and observational studies suggest that BCG vaccination may protect for longer. Further studies are required to investigate the duration of protection by BCG vaccination. FUNDING: The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

Delays in seeking treatment for symptomatic tuberculosis in Sabah, East Malaysia: factors for patient delay.

SETTING: The state of Sabah contributes one third of the tuberculosis (TB) cases in Malaysia. OBJECTIVE: To collect information on factors that affect the time period from the onset of symptoms to first contact with health care providers, whether private or government. DESIGN: A cross-sectional study using a pre-tested questionnaire was conducted among 296 newly registered smear-positive TB patients in 10 districts in Sabah. Univariable and multivariable analyses were used to determine which risk factors were associated with patient delay (>30 days) and 'extreme' patient delay (>90 days). RESULTS: The percentage of patients who sought treatment after 30 and 90 days was respectively 51.8% (95%CI 45.7-57.9) and 23.5% (95%CI 18.6-29.0). The strongest factors associated with patient delay and 'extreme' patient delay was when the first choice for treatment was a non-government health facility and in 30-39-year-olds. 'Extreme' patient delay was also weakly associated, among other factors, with comorbidity and livestock ownership. CONCLUSION: Delay and extreme delay in seeking treatment were more common when the usual first treatment choice was a non-government health facility. Continuous health education on TB aimed at raising awareness and correcting misconceptions is needed, particularly among those who use non-government facilities.

Impact of the implementation of rest days in live bird markets on the dynamics of H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza.

Live bird markets (LBMs) act as a network 'hub' and potential reservoir of infection for domestic poultry. They may therefore be responsible for sustaining H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus circulation within the poultry sector, and thus a suitable target for implementing control strategies. We developed a stochastic transmission model to understand how market functioning impacts on the transmission dynamics. We then investigated the potential for rest days-periods during which markets are emptied and disinfected-to modulate the dynamics of H5N1 HPAI within the poultry sector using a stochastic meta-population model. Our results suggest that under plausible parameter scenarios, HPAI H5N1 could be sustained silently within LBMs with the time spent by poultry in markets and the frequency of introduction of new susceptible birds' dominant factors determining sustained silent spread. Compared with interventions applied in farms (i.e. stamping out, vaccination), our model shows that frequent rest days are an effective means to reduce HPAI transmission. Furthermore, our model predicts that full market closure would be only slightly more effective than rest days to reduce transmission. Strategies applied within markets could thus help to control transmission of the disease.

Validation and utility of a computerized South Asian names and group recognition algorithm in ascertaining South Asian ethnicity in the national renal registry.

BACKGROUND: The UK Renal Registry (UKRR) reports on equity and quality of renal replacement therapy (RRT). Ethnic origin is a key variable, but it is only recorded for 76% patients overall in the UKRR and there is wide variation in the degree of its completeness between renal centres. Most South Asians have distinctive names. AIM: To test the relative performance of a computerized name recognition algorithm (SANGRA) in identifying South Asian names using the UKRR database. DESIGN: Cross-sectional study of patients (n = 27 832) starting RRT in 50 renal centres in England and Wales from 1997 to 2005. METHODS: Kappa statistics were used to assess the degree of agreement of SANGRA coding with existing ethnicity information in UKRR centres. RESULTS: In 12 centres outside London (number of patients = 7555) with 11% (n = 747) self-ascribed South Asian ethnicity, the level of agreement between SANGRA and self-ascribed ethnicity was high (kappa=0.91, 95% CI 0.90-0.93). In two London centres (n = 779) with 21% (n = 165) self-ascribed South Asian ethnicity, SANGRA's agreement with self-ascribed ethnicity was lower (kappa=0.60, 95% CI 0.54-0.67), primarily due to difficulties in distinguishing between South Asian ethnicity and other non-White ethnic minorities. Use of SANGRA increased numbers defined as South Asian from 1650 to 2076 with no overall change in percentage of South Asians. Kappa values showed no obvious association with degree of missing data returns to the UKRR. CONCLUSION: SANGRA's use, taking into account its lower validity in London, allows increased power and generalizability for both ethnic specific analyses and for analyses where adjustment for ethnic origin is important.

Validation of influenza and pneumococcal vaccine status in adults based on self-report.

Self-report of polysaccharide pneumococcal vaccination is not thought reliable because of the increased risk of adverse events from inadvertent re-vaccination in elderly people. Some studies suggest a high sensitivity of self-report and hence a low risk of adverse events if vaccination is administered when medical records are unavailable. Self-report of pneumococcal and influenza vaccination in a sample of >64-year-olds in the United Kingdom was compared with information in their medical records. Self-report of pneumococcal vaccination, in contrast to some of the other studies had a low sensitivity. The findings here support the need for accurate knowledge of prior vaccine status before offering the polysaccharide pneumococcal vaccine. The study also confirms that self-report of influenza vaccination could be relied upon if rapid knowledge of uptake is required.